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Satellite radar interferometry data reveals that the grounding line of Petermann Glacier, Greenland migrates by several kilometers during the tidal cycle, bringing pressurized, subsurface, warm ocean waters in regular contact with a large sector of grounded ice. We use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in two dimensions to calculate the ice melt rates as a function of grounding zone (GZ) length and ocean Thermal Forcing (TF). Ice melt rates are found to be higher in the GZ cavity than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity. The melt rates increase sub‐linearly with the length of the GZ and ocean TF. The model results agree well with remote sensing estimates of ice melt. High basal ice melt rates in tidally flushed grounding zones imply that marine‐terminating glaciers are more sensitive to ocean TF than anticipated, which will increase their projected contribution to sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: The traditional view of ice melting in contact with ocean waters is that melt rates drop to zero at the grounding line, which is a semi‐fixed boundary at the junction between grounded ice and the ocean. In reality, the grounding line migrates by kilometers during the tidal cycle, more than 10 times beyond the range expected from hydrostatic equilibrium, which brings warm, saline water in rapid contact with broad sectors of grounded ice. We use an ocean model to calculate the melt rates caused by seawater intrusions. We find that the melt rates in the GZ are higher than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity and increase as the GZ becomes wider and the ocean gets warmer. Ice melt in kilometer‐size grounding zones will reduce the basal resistance to flow and will increase the sensitivity of the glacier flow to ocean warming, hence projections of sea level rise from the glacier will go up. Key Points: First modeling of ice melt rates from seawater intrusions in the kilometer‐size grounding zone (GZ) of Petermann Glacier using an ocean modelModeled melt rates are highest in the GZ and increase linearly with GZ width and ocean thermal forcingHigh melt rates in kilometer‐size grounding zones imply a higher sensitivity of glaciers to ocean warming than anticipated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seafloor depths under the Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue have not been directly measured, despite their importance for understanding ocean circulation and ice shelf change. We model the bathymetry underneath the floating ice and surrounding ocean using airborne gravity data. Our model is constrained by few ship‐based seafloor measurements near the ice front and by ice‐base measurements over areas of grounded ice from radar data. Localized basins (∼1,400 m deep) are found beneath both ice shelves. The shallowest modeled bathymetry (∼200 m) represents the offshore extension of Cape Freshfield. Near the grounding line, seafloor depths are found to be deeper than the observed depth of the modified Circumpolar Deep water in the region (<350 m), key factor for basal melt analyses. From transit flight gravity anomalies, we suggest the relocation of the mapped edge of the continental shelf and a narrowing of the Cook Shelf Depression. Plain Language Summary: The knowledge of how deep the ocean floor is under the floating ice shelves that connect to grounded ice sheets, is crucial for understanding how ocean water circulates and interacts with the overlying ice. We present a new bathymetric model of the seafloor beneath two ice shelves located in East Antarctica: Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue. Both ice shelves are inaccessible to ships due to heavy sea ice conditions, so the data used in our model were collected from airborne surveys. Our bathymetry model shows new information on the depth and shape of the seafloor that will help understanding the ocean circulation in the area and how this might impact ice thickness changes. Key Points: High resolution bathymetry model of Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis Glacier Tongue, and surrounding open ocean from airborne gravity inversionNew bathymetry model improves the understanding of water pathways between the ice shelves and the continental shelf edgeTransit flight gravity anomalies suggest relocation of the edge of the continental shelf northwards of the currently attributed position [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explored the potential of fibre optics coupled with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) to measure the thickness and Young's modulus of an ice layer, using the properties of guided seismic waves. During two winter seasons (2020 and 2021), an optical fibre was deployed over one of the frozen Roberts Mountain lakes (at 2400 m a.s.l) near Grenoble (France) and we measured both the continuous ambient seismic noise as well as signals generated by active sources (hammer), with a DAS interrogator. Following a Bayesian scheme, we inverted the dispersion curves of longitudinal and flexural guided waves retrieved from the analysis of active shot gathers and obtained Young's modulus E = 3.4 ± 0.1 GPa and ice thickness h = 47 ± 1 cm from the second-year data. The ice thickness was consistent with field measurements. Field observations of porous and/or fracture ice may explain the relatively low effective Young's modulus (relative to pure ice), which may also be affected by a snow layer not included in the model. The drastic improvements in the inversion results between the two years are related to better coupling conditions (drone deployment before early freezing), more appropriate acquisition parameters (2 m gauge length), and the upper snow layers (less thick and less heterogeneous in the second year). Moreover, we were able to use the non-dispersive low-frequency noise associated with gravity waves to estimate the lake depth H = 5 m which is compatible with independent observations. The use of DAS to record guided seismic waves could then appear as a relevant tool for monitoring environments like floating ice shelves and sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts into icy bodies often generate near‐surface melt chambers and thermal perturbations that soften the ice. We explore the post‐impact evolution of non‐penetrating impacts into Europa's ice shell. Simulations of viscous ice deformation show that dense impact melts founder before refreezing. If the transient cavity depth exceeds half the ice shell thickness, over 40% of the impact melt drains into the underlying ocean. Drainage of impact melts from the near‐surface to the ocean occurs on timescales of 103–104 years. The drainage of melts to the ocean occurs for all plausible ice shell thicknesses and ice viscosities, suggesting that melt foundering is a natural consequence of impacts on icy worlds. Post‐impact viscous deformation is an important process on icy worlds that affects cryovolcanism, likely modifies crater morphology, creates porous columns through the ice for surface‐to‐ocean exchange, and may supply the oxidants required for habitability to subsurface oceans. Plain Language Summary: Europa is an ocean world with an outer ice shell in our Solar System. Outer ice shells on ocean worlds serve as both a barrier and facilitator for internal ocean habitability and the detectability of its potential inhabitants. A prominent feature we observe on the surface of ice shells is highly variable craters from impacts that indent but do not penetrate the ice shell. Here, we find that many of the impacts into Europa's ice shell would have generated large near‐surface melt chambers, which rapidly drain into the underlying ocean and form a continuous surface‐to‐ocean melt column. This melt drainage occurs with any entrained surface materials and provides a consistent means of exchange between the surface and ocean, which likely increases the habitability of internal oceans. Furthermore, this drainage displaces large volumes of water from below impact craters, on the order of 10's of cubic kilometers. This large scale drainage may help to explain the wide range of collapsed, enigmatic crater morphologies observed on Europa, and other ocean worlds. Key Points: Impacts into ice shells generate melt chambers that viciously deform and sink through the ice shell, likely modifying crater morphologiesIf transient cavity depth exceeds half the ice thickness, impact melts drain to the ocean and may deliver oxidants needed for habitabilityDraining impact melts form a stable porous channel that connects the ocean to near‐surface and may allow for the escape of ocean fluids [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical front of ice shelves represents a topographic barrier for barotropic currents that transport a considerable amount of heat toward the ice shelves. The blocking effect of the ice front on barotropic currents has recently been observed to substantially reduce the heat transport into the cavity beneath the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica. We use an idealized numerical model to study the vorticity dynamics of an externally forced barotropic current at an ice front and the impact of ice shelf thickness, ice front steepness, and ocean stratification on the volume flux entering the cavity. Our simulations show that thicker ice shelves block a larger volume of the barotropic flow, in agreement with geostrophic theory. However, geostrophy breaks locally at the ice front, where relative vorticity and friction become essential for the flow to cross the discontinuity in water column thickness. The flow entering the cavity accelerates and induces high basal melt rates in the frontal region. Tilting the ice front, as undertaken in sigma-coordinate models, reduces this acceleration because the flow is more geostrophic. Viscous processes—typically exaggerated in low-resolution models—break the potential vorticity constraint and bring the flow deeper into the ice shelf cavity. The externally forced barotropic current can only enter the cavity if the stratification is weak, as strong vertical velocities are needed at the ice front to squeeze the water column beneath the ice shelf. If the stratification is strong, vertical velocities are suppressed and the barotropic flow is almost entirely blocked by the ice front. Significance Statement: Ice shelves in West Antarctica are thinning, mostly from basal melting through oceanic heat entering the underlying ice shelf cavities. Thinning of ice shelves reduces their ability to buttress the grounded ice resting upstream, leading to sea level rise. To model the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise more accurately, the processes governing the oceanic heat flux into the ice shelf cavity must be articulated. This modeling study investigates the dynamics of a depth-independent current approaching the ice shelf; it corroborates previous findings on the blocking of such a current at the ice front. The amount of water that enters the cavity strongly depends on ice shelf thickness and ocean stratification. For a well-mixed ocean, the upper part of the flow can dive underneath the ice shelf and increase basal melting near the ice front. In a stratified ocean, the approaching depth-independent current is almost entirely blocked by the ice front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prompted by field observation of an aufeis‐induced channel avulsion along the Hula Hula River in June 2021, we use measurements of channel migration zone width along 15 rivers flowing north across the Arctic coastal plain in Alaska, USA. We differentiated sites with aufeis that covered ≥1 km2 in early summer during the period 2017–2021 from sites without such aufeis formation. All but four of the 28 sites with aufeis have widths greater than the 95% confidence interval and 20 sites fall outside of the 95% prediction interval for channel width based on drainage area. Pairwise comparison indicates that the population of aufeis sites have significantly wider channel migration zones (p < 0.0001) than non‐aufeis sites after accounting for drainage area. Seasonal aufeis facilitates lateral channel migration and associated heterogeneity. Loss of aufeis under warming climate may reduce habitat diversity in these river corridors. Plain Language Summary: Aufeis forms in Arctic river corridors when groundwater springs continue to provide water to the surface after the river is covered by ice. The resulting shelves of ice can be up to 3 m thick and extend across the channel and floodplain. As this ice slowly melts in early summer, it can divert river flow from the active channel onto the floodplain, creating new channels. This paper examines the resulting width of the floodplain across which active channel migration occurs. Comparing sites with and without aufeis, we find that sites with aufeis are significantly wider. Loss of aufeis with warming climate will reduce the habitat diversity of Arctic rivers. Key Points: Aufeis that persists into summer on rivers of the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain can force channel avulsionSites with repeated aufeis in successive years have wider channel migration zonesLoss of aufeis as climate warms may result in narrower and less diverse river corridors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accreted ice retains and preserves traces of the ocean from which it formed. In this work, we study two classes of accreted ice found on Earth—frazil ice, which forms through crystallization within a supercooled water column, and congelation ice, which forms through directional freezing at an existing interface—and discuss where each might be found in the ice shells of ocean worlds. We focus our study on terrestrial ice formed in low temperature gradient environments (e.g., beneath ice shelves), consistent with conditions expected at the ice-ocean interfaces of Europa and Enceladus, and we highlight the juxtaposition of compositional trends in relation to ice formed in higher temperature gradient environments (e.g., at the ocean surface). Observations from Antarctic sub-ice-shelf congelation ice and marine ice show that the purity of frazil ice can be nearly two orders of magnitude higher than congelation ice formed in the same low temperature gradient environment (∼0.1% vs. ∼10% of the ocean salinity). In addition, where congelation ice can maintain a planar ice-water interface on a microstructural scale, the efficiency of salt rejection is enhanced (∼1% of the ocean salinity) and lattice soluble impurities such as chloride are preferentially incorporated. We conclude that an ice shell that forms by gradual thickening as its interior cools would be composed of congelation ice, whereas frazil ice will accumulate where the ice shell thins on local (rifts and basal fractures) or regional (latitudinal gradients) scales through the operation of an "ice pump." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating ice shelves buttress the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is losing mass rapidly mainly due to ocean-driven melting and the associated disruption to glacial dynamics. The local ocean circulation near ice shelves is therefore important for the prediction of future ice mass loss and related sea-level rise as it determines the water mass exchange, heat transport under the ice shelf and resultant melting. However, the dynamics controlling the near-coastal circulation are not fully understood. A cyclonic (i.e. clockwise) gyre circulation (27 km radius) in front of the Pine Island Ice Shelf has previously been identified in both numerical models and velocity observations. Mooring data further revealed a potential reversal of this gyre during an abnormally cold period. Here we present ship-based observations from 2019 to the west of Thwaites Ice Shelf, revealing another gyre (13 km radius) for the first time in this habitually ice-covered region, rotating in the opposite (anticyclonic, anticlockwise) direction to the gyre near Pine Island Ice Shelf, despite similar wind forcing. We use an idealised configuration of MITgcm, with idealised forcing based on ERA5 climatological wind fields and a range of idealised sea ice conditions typical for the region, to reproduce key features of the observed gyres near Pine Island Ice Shelf and Thwaites Ice Shelf. The model driven solely by wind forcing in the presence of ice can reproduce the horizontal structure and direction of both gyres. We show that the modelled gyre direction depends upon the spatial difference in the ocean surface stress, which can be affected by the applied wind stress curl filed, the percentage of wind stress transferred through the ice, and the angle between the wind direction and the sea ice edge. The presence of ice, either it is fast ice/ice shelves blocking the effect of wind or mobile sea ice enhancing the effect of wind, has the potential to reverse the gyre direction relative to ice-free conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of surface lowering on Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), Antarctica, have prompted concern about its stability. In this study, an ocean model is used to investigate the extent to which changes in ocean forcing may have influenced ice loss and the distribution of stabilizing marine ice beneath LCIS. The model uses a new bathymetry, containing a southern seabed trough discovered using seismic observations. The modeled extent of marine ice, thought to stabilize LCIS, is in good agreement with observations. Experiments applying idealized ocean warming yield an increase in melting over the southern trough. This is inconsistent with lowering observed in northern LCIS, suggesting oceanic forcing is not responsible for that signal. The marine ice extent and thickness reduces significantly under ocean warming, implying a high sensitivity of LCIS stability to changes in ocean forcing. This result could have wide implications for other cold‐water ice shelves around Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: Satellite observations have revealed a lowering in recent decades of the surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), Antarctica, which has led to concern about its stability. By modeling ocean conditions under LCIS, we investigate the extent to which ocean melting may have caused the ice to thin, leading to the observed lowering, or altered the pattern of marine ice beneath LCIS. Marine ice forms when seawater freezes to the base of the ice shelf, and is thought to stabilize LCIS. The model uses a new seabed data set that contains a wide, deep seabed trough in the south, found by a seismic survey. In modeled ocean warming experiments, an increase in melting is concentrated in this southern region. However, greater lowering has been observed in the north, suggesting that changes in ocean conditions are not responsible for the lowering. The calculated pattern of marine ice at the base of LCIS looks similar to the observed pattern. With a warmer ocean, marine ice is significantly reduced in crucial regions of the ice shelf. This shows that the stability of LCIS is sensitive to changes in ocean conditions and other ice shelves around Antarctica are likely sensitive to these changes too. Key Points: An ocean model with new Larsen C bathymetry shows greatest melting and melt sensitivity where seismic data indicate a deep southern troughThe calculated marine ice distribution under Larsen C Ice Shelf, based on model melt/freeze rates, is in good agreement with observationsA reduction in marine ice with ocean warming implies a threat to Larsen C stability, with wide implications for cold‐water ice shelves [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outflow of supercooled Ice Shelf Water from the conjoined Ross and McMurdo ice shelf cavity augments fast ice thickness and forms a thick sub-ice platelet layer in McMurdo Sound. Here, we investigate whether the CryoSat-2 satellite radar altimeter can consistently detect the higher freeboard caused by the thicker fast ice combined with the buoyant forcing of a sub-ice platelet layer beneath. Freeboards obtained from CryoSat-2 were compared with 4 years of drill-hole-measured sea ice freeboard, snow depth, and sea ice and sub-ice platelet layer thicknesses in McMurdo Sound in November 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2018. The spatial distribution of higher CryoSat-2 freeboard concurred with the distributions of thicker ice-shelf-influenced fast ice and the sub-ice platelet layer. The mean CryoSat-2 freeboard was 0.07–0.09 m higher over the main path of supercooled Ice Shelf Water outflow, in the centre of the sound, relative to the west and east. In this central region, the mean CryoSat-2-derived ice thickness was 35 % larger than the mean drill-hole-measured fast ice thickness. We attribute this overestimate in satellite-altimeter-obtained ice thickness to the additional buoyant forcing of the sub-ice platelet layer which had a mean thickness of 3.90 m in the centre. We demonstrate the capability of CryoSat-2 to detect higher Ice Shelf Water-influenced fast ice freeboard in McMurdo Sound. Further development of this method could provide a tool to identify regions of ice-shelf-influenced fast ice elsewhere on the Antarctic coastline with adequate information on the snow layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transfer functions for reconstruction of the duration of ice-free period at stations in the Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas have been developed by comparison of hydrometeorological data and the chemical composition of bottom sediments accumulated during observation period. It has been established that in addition to the previously discussed processes through which the ice cover affects the chemical composition of bottom sediments (primary bioproductivity and redox conditions of bottom waters), there are several mainly local processes developed on the East Siberian shelf. These are the changes of terrestrial aqueous and solid runoff; coastal abrasion rate; current structure and water exchange through the Bering Strait between the Pacific and Arctic oceans; and intensity and direction of the ice/iceberg rafting of sediments. It is shown that some typical elements (Br, Ca, As, Fe, Ga) can be used as universal geochemical proxies for qualitative reconstruction of ice conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar ice sheets are important components of the Earth system. As the geometries of land, ocean and ice sheets evolve, they must be consistently captured within the lexicon of geodesy. Understanding the interplay between the processes such as ice-sheet dynamics, solid-Earth deformation, and sea-level adjustment requires both geodetically consistent and mass-conserving descriptions of evolving land and ocean domains, grounded ice sheets and floating ice shelves, and their respective interfaces. Here we present mathematical descriptions of a generic level set that can be used to track both the grounding lines and coastlines, in light of ice–ocean mass exchange and complex feedbacks from the solid Earth and sea level. We next present a unified method to accurately compute the sea-level contribution of evolving ice sheets based on the change in ice thickness, bedrock elevation and mean sea level caused by any geophysical processes. Our formalism can be applied to arbitrary geometries and at all timescales. While it can be used for applications with modeling, observations and the combination of two, it is best suited for Earth system models, comprising ice sheets, solid Earth and sea level, that seek to conserve mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of platelet ice is well known to occur under Antarctic sea ice, where subice platelet layers form from supercooled ice shelf water. In the Arctic, however, platelet ice formation has not been extensively observed, and its formation and morphology currently remain enigmatic. Here, we present the first comprehensive, long‐term in situ observations of a decimeter thick subice platelet layer under free‐drifting pack ice of the Central Arctic in winter. Observations carried out with a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) during the midwinter leg of the MOSAiC drift expedition provide clear evidence of the growth of platelet ice layers from supercooled water present in the ocean mixed layer. This platelet formation takes place under all ice types present during the surveys. Oceanographic data from autonomous observing platforms lead us to the conclusion that platelet ice formation is a widespread but yet overlooked feature of Arctic winter sea ice growth. Plain Language Summary: Platelet ice is a particular type of ice that consists of decimeter sized thin ice plates that grow and collect on the underside of sea ice. It is most often related to Antarctic ice shelves and forms from supercooled water with a temperature below the local freezing point. Here we present the first comprehensive observation of platelet ice formation in freely drifting pack ice in the Arctic in winter during the international drift expedition MOSAiC. We investigate its occurrence under the ice with a remotely controlled underice diving robot. Measurements of water temperature from automatic measurement devices distributed around the central MOSAiC ice floe show that supercooled water and thus platelet ice occur widely in the winter Arctic. This way of ice formation in the Arctic has been overlooked during the last century, as direct observations under winter sea ice were not available and contrary to typical Antarctic observations; manifestation of platelet ice in Arctic ice core stratigraphy has been more challenging to identify. Key Points: Here we present extensive observations of platelet ice formation under Arctic winter sea iceThe subice platelet layer appears to form locally due to seed crystals in ocean surface supercooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of near-Antarctic waters to freshening by increased glacial melt is investigated using a highresolution (0.18) global ocean–sea ice model with realistic Antarctic water-mass properties. Two meltwater perturbation experiments are conducted where the ocean model is forced with constant elevated glacial melt rates of 1.5 and 2.8 times the control rate. Within 10 years of the onset of enhanced meltwater forcing, the generation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Dense Shelf Water ceases, as shelf waters become increasingly buoyant. Increased ocean stratification triggers subsurface warming in Dense Shelf Water source regions, suggesting a localized positive feedback to melt. In a parallel response, meltwater forcing enhances the subsurface lateral density gradients of the Antarctic Slope Front that modulate the transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water across the continental slope toward ice shelf grounding lines. Consequently, coastal freshening acts to isolate the Antarctic Ice Sheet from open ocean heat, suggesting a cooling response to melt that counteracts warming associated with stratification. Further, these strengthening density gradients accelerate westward geostrophic currents along the coast and shelf break, homogenizing shelf waters and amplifying remote feedbacks. The net effect on the continental shelf is transient warming, followed by cooling in both experiments; however, this signal is the aggregate of a complex pattern of regional warming and cooling responses. These results suggest coastal freshening by meltwater may alter the thermal forcing of the Antarctic ice sheet in ways that both accelerate and inhibit ice shelf melt at different locations along the Antarctic coastline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolving conditions at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier will be important in determining the rate of its future sea-level contribution over the coming decades. Here, we use remote-sensing observations to investigate recent changes (2000–2018) in the structure and velocity of Thwaites Glacier and its floating tongue. We show that the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier has accelerated by 38% over this period, while its previously intact floating tongue has transitioned to a weaker mélange of fractured icebergs bounded by sea ice. However, the rate of structural weakening and acceleration was not uniform across the observational period and we identify two periods of rapid acceleration and structural weakening (2006–2012; 2016–2018), separated by a period of deceleration and re-advance of the structurally-intact shear margin boundary (2012–2015). The timing of these accelerations/decelerations strongly suggests a link to variable ocean forcing. The weakened tongue now has some dependency on landfast sea ice for structural integrity and is vulnerable to changes in landfast ice persistency. Future reductions in landfast sea ice could manifest from changes in climate and/or the imminent removal of the B-22A iceberg from the Thwaites embayment. Such changes could have important implications for the integrity of the ice tongue and future glacier discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated calving of ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic Ice Sheet may form unstable ice cliffs. The marine ice cliff instability hypothesis posits that cliffs taller than a critical height (~90 m) will undergo structural collapse, initiating runaway retreat in ice‐sheet models. This critical height is based on inferences from preexisting, static ice cliffs. Here we show how the critical height increases with the timescale of ice‐shelf collapse. We model failure mechanisms within an ice cliff deforming after removal of ice‐shelf buttressing stresses. If removal occurs rapidly, the cliff deforms primarily elastically and fails through tensile‐brittle fracture, even at relatively small cliff heights. As the ice‐shelf removal timescale increases, viscous relaxation dominates, and the critical height increases to ~540 m for timescales greater than days. A 90‐m critical height implies ice‐shelf removal in under an hour. Incorporation of ice‐shelf collapse timescales in prognostic ice‐sheet models will mitigate the marine ice cliff instability, implying less ice mass loss. Plain Language Summary: The seaward flow of ice from grounded ice sheets to the ocean is often resisted by the buttressing effect of floating ice shelves. These ice shelves risk collapsing as the climate warms, potentially exposing tall cliff faces. Some suggest ice cliffs taller than ~90 m could collapse under their own weight, exposing taller cliffs further to the interior of a thickening ice sheet, leading to runaway ice‐sheet retreat. This model, however, is based on studies of preexisting cliffs found at calving fronts. In this study, we consider the transient case, examining the processes by which an ice cliff forms as a buttressing ice shelf is removed. We show that the height at which a cliff collapses increases with the timescale of ice‐shelf removal. If the ice shelf is removed rapidly, deformation may be concentrated, forming vertical cracks and potentially leading to the collapse of small (e.g., 90‐m) cliffs. However, if we consider ice‐shelf collapse timescales longer than a few days (consistent with observations), deformation is distributed throughout the cliff, which flows viscously rather than collapsing. We expect that including the effects of such ice‐shelf collapse timescales in future ice‐sheet models would mitigate runaway cliff collapse and reduce predicted ice‐sheet mass loss. Key Points: The critical height required for the collapse of marine ice cliffs increases with the timescale of buttressing ice‐shelf removalOver short timescales, deformation is primarily elastic; a 90‐m cliff (a previous threshold) may fail if removal occurs in under an hourOver timescales longer than days (as in the Larsen B collapse), deformation is by viscous, ductile flow for cliffs shorter than ~540 m [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of Antarctic ice shelves are bounded by grounded ice rises. These ice rises exhibit local flow fields that partially oppose the flow of the surrounding ice shelves. Formation of ice rises is accompanied by a characteristic upward-arching internal stratigraphy ("Raymond arches"), whose geometry can be analysed to infer information about past ice-sheet changes in areas where other archives such as rock outcrops are missing. Here we present an improved modelling framework to study ice-rise evolution using a satellite-velocity calibrated, isothermal, and isotropic 3-D full-Stokes model including grounding-line dynamics at the required mesh resolution (< 500 m). This overcomes limitations of previous studies where ice-rise modelling has been restricted to 2-D and excluded the coupling between the ice shelf and ice rise. We apply the model to the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, containing two ice rises. Our simulations investigate the effect of surface mass balance and ocean perturbations onto ice-rise divide position and interpret possible resulting unique Raymond arch geometries. Our results show that changes in the surface mass balance result in immediate and sustained divide migration (>2.0 m yr -1) of up to 3.5 km. In contrast, instantaneous ice-shelf disintegration causes a short-lived and delayed (by 60–100 years) response of smaller magnitude (<0.75 m yr -1). The model tracks migration of a triple junction and synchronous ice-divide migration in both ice rises with similar magnitude but differing rates. The model is suitable for glacial/interglacial simulations on the catchment scale, providing the next step forward to unravel the ice-dynamic history stored in ice rises all around Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice extent has displayed a slight upward since 1979, but with strong temporal and regional variability—the drivers of which are poorly understood. Here, we conduct numerical experiments with a circum-Antarctic ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model driven by realistic atmospheric surface boundary conditions to examine the factors responsible for the temporal and spatial patterns in observed Antarctic sea ice variability. The model successfully reproduces observed seasonal and interannual variability in total sea ice extent and the temporal/spatial patterns of sea ice concentration and seasonality (days of advance and retreat and actual ice days) for 1979–2014. Sensitivity experiments are performed, in which the interannual variability in wind stress or thermodynamic surface forcing is ignored, to delineate their contributions to Antarctic sea ice fields. The results demonstrate that: (1) thermodynamic forcing plays a key role in driving interannual variability in sea ice extent and seasonality in most Antarctic sectors; (2) only in the Ross Sea the wind stress does become the main driver of sea ice extent variability; (3) thermodynamic forcing largely regulates interannual variability in the timing of sea ice advance, while wind stress largely controls the timing of the sea ice retreat; and (4) although both wind stress and thermodynamic forcing contribute to variability in total sea ice volume, the wind stress plays a dominant role in regulating sea ice volume variability in the near-coastal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relatively little is known about the physical mechanisms that drive the dynamics of the East Antarctic outlet glaciers. Here we conduct a remote-sensing investigation of the Polar Record Glacier (PRG), East Antarctica to analyze its ice flow acceleration, ice front variations and ice surface melting. Ice flow speeds at PRG increased by up to 15% from 2005 to 2015, with substantial interannual fluctuations. The ice velocities also showed seasonal variations, accelerating by up to 9% between September and January. Multiple mechanisms contribute to the observed seasonal variations: the initial acceleration may result from the lost back-stress provided by the sea ice in the austral spring and the later speedup relate to the surface meltwater that leads to weakened ice shelf and shear margins. The sensitivity of the PRG to oceanic forcing is confirmed by comparing the secular ice velocity increases with ocean temperatures. These measurements suggest that the dynamics of East Antarctic ice shelves are sensitive to melt at both the surface and base, at a range of timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet restrain the grounded ice-sheet flow. Thinning of an ice shelf reduces this effect, leading to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. Using 18 years of continuous satellite radar altimeter observations, we have computed decadal-scale changes in ice-shelf thickness around the Antarctic continent. Overall, average ice-shelf volume change accelerated from negligible loss at 25 ± 64 cubic kilometers per year for 1994-2003 to rapid loss of 310 ± 74 cubic kilometers per year for 2003-2012. West Antarctic losses increased by ~70% in the past decade, and earlier volume gain by East Antarctic ice shelves ceased. In the Amundsen and Bellingshausen regions, some ice shelves have lost up to 18% of their thickness in less than two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermodynamic ablation of ice in contact with the ocean is an essential element of ice sheet and ocean interactions but is challenging to model and quantify. Building on earlier observations of sea ice ablation, a variety of recent theoretical, experimental and observational studies have considered ice ablation in contrasting geometries, from vertical to near-horizontal ice faces, and reveal different scaling behaviour for predicted ablation rates in different dynamical regimes. However, uncertainties remain about when the contrasting results should be applied, as existing model parameterisations do not capture all relevant regimes of ice–ocean ablation. To progress towards improved models of ice–ocean​ interaction, we synthesise current understanding into a classification of ablation types. We examine the effect of the classification on the parameterisation of turbulent fluxes from the ocean towards the ice, and identify the dominant processes next to ice interfaces of different orientation. Four ablation types are defined: melting and dissolving based on ocean temperatures, and shear-controlled and buoyancy-controlled regimes based on the dynamics of the near-ice molecular sublayer. We describe existing observational and modelling studies of sea ice, ice shelves, and glacier termini, as well as laboratory studies, to show how they fit into this classification. Two sets of observations from the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelf cavities suggest that both the buoyancy-controlled and shear-controlled regimes may be relevant under different oceanographic conditions. Overall, buoyancy-controlled dynamics are more likely when the molecular sublayer has lower Reynolds number, and shear for higher Reynolds number, although the observations suggest some variability about this trend. • Four ablation types are presented based on the ice–ocean boundary layer structure. • Ice ablation parameterisations are dependent on the ablation types. • Existing observations, modelling and laboratory studies of ablation are classified. • Two distinct turbulent flux regimes are identified in ice shelf cavity observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-driven retreat of ice shelves on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula has opened up new coastal marine environments, enabling the development of primary productivity. Diatom assemblages in surface sediment samples from the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula were analyzed to investigate the use of diatoms as paleoenvironmental indicators of changes in glacial and sea ice extent. Here we present surface sediment diatom assemblage data from samples taken on 5 cruises between 2000-2012 from the northeastern-most tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen A and Larsen B embayments, and a single sample from just east of Larsen C Ice Shelf. Absolute diatom abundance increases to the northeast reflecting greater contribution of diatom valves originating from surface waters that are ice free for a longer period of time. This trend is mirrored by the relative abundance of Chaetoceros subg. Hyalochaete , a spring bloom indicator group. The genus Fragilariopsis is dominated by sea ice-associated species, including Fragilariopsis curta, Fragilariopsis cylindrus, Fragilariopsis obliquecostata, Fragilariopsis sublinearis and Fragilariopsis vanheurckii. Fragilariopsis spp. relative abundance varies inversely with Chaetoceros subg. Hyalochaete. Distributions of Thalassiosira antarctica T1 and Thalassiosira antarctica T2, interpreted as a cooler and warmer forms, respectively, while generally inverse to one another with the T. antarctica T2 more common to the northeast, are not straightforward, with a pocket of high relative abundance in Larsen B embayment. These diatom data and their comparison to modern oceanography of the eastern Antarctic Peninsula provide a basis for further paleoceanographic work in the region. • Diatom data from eastern Antarctic Peninsula, including Larsen A and B embayments. • Development of ecosystem post ice shelf collapse. • Diatom assemblage and abundance in surface sediments related to oceanography. • Chaetoceros subg. Hyalochaete more common and abundant in Larsen A embayment. • Sea ice-associated Fragilariopsis dominate Larsen B embayment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High sea ice production (SIP) generates high-salinity water, thus, influencing the global thermohaline circulation. Estimation from passive microwave data and heat flux models have indicated that the Ross Ice Shelf polynya (RISP) may be the highest SIP region in the Southern Oceans. However, the coarse spatial resolution of passive microwave data limited the accuracy of these estimates. The Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar dataset with high spatial and temporal resolution provides an unprecedented opportunity to more accurately distinguish both polynya area/extent and occurrence. In this study, the SIPs of RISP and McMurdo Sound polynya (MSP) from 1 March–30 November 2017 and 2018 are calculated based on Sentinel-1 SAR data (for area/extent) and AMSR2 data (for ice thickness). The results show that the wind-driven polynyas in these two years occurred from the middle of March to the middle of November, and the occurrence frequency in 2017 was 90, less than 114 in 2018. However, the annual mean cumulative SIP area and volume in 2017 were similar to (or slightly larger than) those in 2018. The average annual cumulative polynya area and ice volume of these two years were 1,040,213 km2 and 184 km3 for the RSIP, and 90,505 km2 and 16 km3 for the MSP, respectively. This annual cumulative SIP (volume) is only 1/3–2/3 of those obtained using the previous methods, implying that ice production in the Ross Sea might have been significantly overestimated in the past and deserves further investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]