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Abstract. Grounding line discharge is a key component of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we present an estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge from 1996 through to last month. We calculate ice flux at up to 100 m resolution through 16 algorithmically-generated flux gates, which are continuous around Antarctica. We draw on a range of ice velocity and thickness data to estimate grounding line discharge. For ice thickness, we use four bed topography datasets, two firn models and a temporally varying ice surface. For the ice velocity, we utilise a range of publicly-available ice velocity maps at resolutions ranging from 240 x 240 m to 1000 x 1000 m, as well as new, 100 x 100 m monthly velocity mosaics derived from intensity-tracking of Sentinel-1 image pairs, available since October 2014. The pixel-based ice fluxes and ice flux errors are integrated within all available Antarctic ice stream, ice shelf and glacier basins. Our dataset also includes the contributions to discharge from changes in ice thickness due to surface lowering, time-varying firn air content and surface mass change between the flux gates and grounding line. We find that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge increased from 1,990 ± 23 Gt yr-1 to 2,205 ± 18 Gt yr-1 between 1996 and 2023, much of which was due to acceleration of ice streams in West Antarctica but with substantial contributions from ice streams in East Antarctica and glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The uncertainties in our discharge dataset primarily result from uncertain bed elevation and flux gate location, which account for much of difference between our results and previous studies. It is our intention to update this discharge dataset each month, subject to continued Sentinel-1 acquisitions and funding availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent satellite data have revealed widespread grounding line retreat, glacier thinning, and associated mass loss along the Bellingshausen Sea sector, leading to increased concern for the stability of this region of Antarctica. While satellites have greatly improved our understanding of surface conditions, a lack of radio-echo sounding (RES) data in this region has restricted our analysis of subglacial topography, ice thickness and ice flux. In this paper we analyse 3,000 km of 150 MHz airborne RES data collected using the PASIN2 radar system (flown at 3-5 km line spacing) to investigate the subglacial controls on ice flow near to the grounding lines of Ers, Envisat, Cryosat, Grace, Sentinel, Lidke and Landsat ice streams as well as Hall and Nikitin glaciers. We find that each outlet is topographically controlled, and when ice thickness is combined with surface velocity data from MEaSUREs (Mouiginot et al., 2019), these outlets are found to discharge over 39.2 ± 0.79 Gt a-1 of ice to floating ice shelves and the Southern Ocean. Our RES measurements reveal that outlet flows are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, and that there is limited topographic support for inland grounding line re-stabilisation in a future retreating scenario, with several ice stream beds dipping inland at ~ 5 degrees per km. These data reinforce the importance of accurate bed topography to model and understand the controls on inland ice flow and grounding line position as well as overall mass balance / sea level change estimates. RES data described in this paper are available through the UK Polar Data Center: https://doi.org/10.5285/ E07D62BF-D58C-4187-A019-59BE998939CC (Corr and Robinson, 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the period between 14.7 and 11.5 cal. (calibrated) kyr B.P, the sediment flux of Bindschadler Ice Stream (BIS; West Antarctica) averaged 1.7 × 108 m3 a-1. This implies that BIS velocity averaged 500 ± 120 m a-1. At a finer resolution, the data suggest two stages of ice stream flow. During the first 2400 ± 400 years of a grounding-zone stillstand, ice stream flow averaged 200 ± 90 m a-1. Following ice-shelf breakup at 12.3 ± 0.2 cal. kyr B.P., flow accelerated to 1350 ± 580 m a-1. The estimated ice volume discharge after breakup exceeds the balance velocity by a factor of two and implies ice mass imbalance of -40 Gt a-1 just before the grounding zone retreated >200 km. We interpret that the paleo-BIS maintained sustainable discharge throughout the grounding-zone stillstand first due to the buttressing effect of its fringing ice shelf and then later (i.e., after ice-shelf breakup) due to the stabilizing effects of grounding-zone wedge aggradation. Major paleo-ice stream retreat, shortly after the ice-shelf breakup that triggered the inferred ice flow acceleration, substantiates the current concerns about rapid, near-future retreat of major glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector where Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers are already experiencing ice-shelf instability and groundingzone retreat that have triggered upstream-propagating thinning and ice acceleration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheets lose the majority of their mass through outlet glaciers or ice streams, corridors of fast ice moving multiple orders of magnitude more rapidly than the surrounding ice. The future stability of these corridors of fast-moving ice depends sensitively on the behaviour of their boundaries, namely shear margins, grounding zones and the basal sliding interface, where the stress field is complex and fundamentally three-dimensional. These boundaries are prone to thermomechanical localisation, which can be captured numerically only with high temporal and spatial resolution. Thus, better understanding the coupled physical processes that govern the response of these boundaries to climate change necessitates a non-linear, full Stokes model that affords high resolution and scales well in three dimensions. This paper's goal is to contribute to the growing toolbox for modelling thermomechanical deformation in ice by leveraging graphical processing unit (GPU) accelerators' parallel scalability. We propose FastICE, a numerical model that relies on pseudo-transient iterations to solve the implicit thermomechanical coupling between ice motion and temperature involving shear heating and a temperature-dependent ice viscosity. FastICE is based on the finite-difference discretisation, and we implement the pseudo-time integration in a matrix-free way. We benchmark the mechanical Stokes solver against the finite-element code Elmer/Ice and report good agreement among the results. We showcase a parallel version of FastICE to run on GPU-accelerated distributed memory machines, reaching a parallel efficiency of 99 %. We show that our model is particularly useful for improving our process-based understanding of flow localisation in the complex transition zones bounding rapidly moving ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe new Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice thickness constraints for three locations spanning the Weddell Sea Embayment (WSE) of Antarctica. Samples collected from the Shackleton Range, Pensacola Mountains, and the Lassiter Coast constrain the LGM thickness of the Slessor Glacier, Foundation Ice Stream, and grounded ice proximal to the modern Ronne Ice Shelf edge on the Antarctic Peninsula, respectively. Previous attempts to reconstruct LGM-to-present ice thickness changes around the WSE used measurements of long-lived cosmogenic nuclides, primarily 10Be. An absence of post-LGM apparent exposure ages at many sites led to LGM thickness reconstructions that were spatially highly variable and inconsistent with flow line modelling. Estimates for the contribution of the ice sheet occupying the WSE at the LGM to global sea level since deglaciation vary by an order of magnitude, from 1.4 to 14.1 m of sea level equivalent. Here we use a short-lived cosmogenic nuclide, in situ-produced 14C , which is less susceptible to inheritance problems than 10Be and other long-lived nuclides. We use in situ 14C to evaluate the possibility that sites with no post-LGM exposure ages are biased by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance due to surface preservation by cold-based ice and non-deposition of LGM-aged drift. Our measurements show that the Slessor Glacier was between 310 and up to 655 m thicker than present at the LGM. The Foundation Ice Stream was at least 800 m thicker, and ice on the Lassiter Coast was at least 385 m thicker than present at the LGM. With evidence for LGM thickening at all of our study sites, our in situ 14C measurements indicate that the long-lived nuclide measurements of previous studies were influenced by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance. Our inferred LGM configuration, which is primarily based on minimum ice thickness constraints and thus does not constrain an upper limit, indicates a relatively modest contribution to sea level rise since the LGM of < 4.6 m, and possibly as little as < 1.5 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document the unparalleled depositional and chronological record of an 80,000 km2 ice shelf from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet whose advance and retreat spanned only ∼400 years (11.6–11.2 cal ka BP). Its catastrophic breakup (∼150 years; 11.3–11.2 cal ka BP) coincided with a rapidly warming atmosphere and ocean, paralleling reported conditions impacting the ongoing evolution of marine-based margins of Antarctica and Greenland. Our record highlights the instability of the NW Laurentide Ice Sheet whose marine-based ice streams and ice shelves retreated in channels of intermediate depth (400–600 m) that lack reverse slopes, suggesting that current ice dynamics models may underestimate the sensitivity of similar margins in Antarctica to ongoing global warming. Our reconstruction is based on > 700 km of coastal field surveys complemented by radiocarbon dates stratigraphically encompassing the full lifespan of the former Viscount Melville Sound Ice Shelf. Notably, this detailed record demonstrates that large ice shelves can be removed rapidly, cautioning against dismissing predictions of possible 21st century mean-sea-level rise >1 m derived from the ongoing retreat of marine-based ice sheets. We emphasize that during the last deglaciation of the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago, prominent ice streams transitioned into ice shelves whose depositional landforms are pervasive, demonstrating their pivotal role in the evisceration of the NW Laurentide Ice Sheet. The VMSIS provides an exceptionally detailed geological record whose tightly constrained chronology of growth, maintenance and breakup serves as an instructive example for those modern marine-based margins whose instability is being investigated to address estimates of possible future sea level rise. • The Viscount Melville Sound Ice Shelf, western Arctic Canada, advanced rapidly at the end of the Younger Dryas covering 80,000 km2. • Its exceptional depositional record onlaps coastlines for 700 km and widespread radiocarbon dates on marine shells document its full lifespan. • The ice stream/ice shelf system spans only 400 years from initial advance to full removal. • Removal of the ice stream/ice shelf system took only 150 years, forced by a warming atmosphere and ocean. • This record shows that marine-based ice margins can retreat rapidly in intermediate water depths lacking reverse bedrock slopes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice rises that form within the interior of ice shelves provide significant buttressing to grounded ice. The Crary Ice Rise is located just downstream of the Whillans Ice Stream's grounding line. Previous work has demonstrated that the evolution of the Crary Ice Rise and the Whillans Ice Stream are linked. Thus, we conducted a geophysical experiment to understand the origin and evolution of the Crary Ice Rise. Seismic data reveal a complex sedimentary structure is present beneath the Crary Ice Rise. This indicates that the topographic high responsible for the ice rise is not due to an elevated region of exposed bedrock. Instead, it appears that the topographic high has been formed as the result of both the regions tectonic history and interactions with the overriding ice sheet. We are continuing to explore geodynamic implications for the observed geologic structures and their potential influence on ice sheet behavior. Analysis of ICESat altimetry indicates that the ice rise is slowly migrating. Understanding the interaction between a stagnating ice stream and an ice rise will improve interpretations of ice stream behavior over centennial time-scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]