1. Development of a prediction model for recurrence in patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases undergoing cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy.
- Author
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Dietz MV, Hannink G, Said I, van der Zant FA, van de Vlasakker VCJ, Brandt-Kerkhof ARM, Verhoef C, Bremers AJA, de Wilt JHW, Hemmer PHJ, de Hingh IHJT, de Reuver PR, and Madsen EVE
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Retrospective Studies, Aged, Adult, Carcinoembryonic Antigen blood, Combined Modality Therapy, Peritoneal Neoplasms secondary, Peritoneal Neoplasms therapy, Colorectal Neoplasms pathology, Colorectal Neoplasms therapy, Cytoreduction Surgical Procedures, Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy, Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
- Abstract
Introduction: Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) improves survival outcomes for selected patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (PM), but recurrence rates are high. The aim of this study was to develop a tool to predict recurrence in patients with colorectal PM that undergo CRS-HIPEC., Materials and Methods: For this retrospective cohort study, data of patients that underwent CRS-HIPEC for colorectal PM from four Dutch HIPEC centers were used. Exclusion criteria were perioperative systemic therapy and peritoneal cancer index (PCI) ≥20. Nine previously identified factors were considered as predictors: gender, age, primary tumor characteristics (location, nodal stage, differentiation, and mutation status), synchronous liver metastases, preoperative Carcino-Embryonal Antigen (CEA), and peritoneal cancer index (PCI). The prediction model was developed using multivariable Cox regression and validated internally using bootstrapping. The performance of the model was evaluated by discrimination and calibration., Results: In total, 408 patients were included. During the follow-up, recurrence of disease occurred in 318 patients (78%). Significant predictors of recurrence were PCI (HR 1.075, 95% CI 1.044-1.108) and primary tumor location (left sided HR 0.719, 95% CI 0.550-0.939). The prediction model for recurrence showed fair discrimination with a C-index of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62, 0.66) after internal validation. The model was well-calibrated with good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities., Conclusion: We developed a prediction tool that could aid in the prediction of recurrence in patients with colorectal PM who undergo CRS-HIPEC., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest All authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
- Published
- 2024
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