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Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.

Slackwater deposits representing past flood events provide a robust means to extend systematic gage records further back in time, place historic floods in a longer-term context, and reduce uncertainties in flood hazard analysis. The identification and application of slackwater deposits in riverine paleoflood hydrology has traditionally been limited to arid bedrock-controlled environments and periglacial environments. In this study, we utilize methods developed in humid alluvial settings and apply them to slackwater deposits, one of the first studies to do so. This novel approach uses sediment texture and geochemistry to distinguish slackwater deposits from in situ material in a temperate alluvial setting. We identify multiple slackwater deposits in two rock shelters situated on bluffs adjacent to the lower Ohio River. Flood age estimates are based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, and discharge estimates are based on a 1D HEC-RAS model. The uppermost slackwater deposit at both sites corresponds to the AD 1937 historic flood of record (∼31,400 m3/s), while another slackwater deposit identified only at the lower elevation site corresponds to a paleoflood that occurred around AD 1650 with a discharge of ∼23,900 m3/s. Our findings imply that the AD 1937 flood represents the largest magnitude flood on the lower Ohio River in at least the last 400 years. Inclusion of the paleoflood into a flood frequency analysis for the Ohio River at Louisville reduces uncertainties in large flood quantiles by ∼50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]