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Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. According to the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, assessment of the ecological quality of streams and rivers should be based on ecotype-specific reference conditions. Here, we assess two approaches for establishing a typology for Mediterranean streams: a top-down approach using environmental variables and bottom-up approach using macroinvertebrate assemblages. 2. Classification of 162 sites using environmental variables resulted in five ecotypes: (i) temporary streams; (ii) evaporite calcareous streams at medium altitude; (iii) siliceous headwater streams at high altitude; (iv) calcareous headwater streams at medium to high altitude and (v) large watercourses. 3. Macroinvertebrate communities of minimally disturbed sites ( n = 105), grouped using UPGMA (unweighted pair-group method using arithmetic averages) on Bray–Curtis similarities, were used to validate four of the five ecotypes obtained using environmental variables; ecotype 5, large watercourses, was not included as this group had no reference sites. 4. Analysis of similarities (anosim) showed that macroinvertebrate assemblage composition differed among three of the four ecotypes, resulting in differences between the bottom-up and top-down classification approaches. Siliceous streams were clearly different from the other three ecotypes, evaporite and calcareous ecotypes did not show large differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages and temporary streams formed a very heterogeneous group because of large variability in salinity and hydrology. 5. This study showed that stream classification schemes based on environmental variables need to be validated using biological variables. Furthermore, our findings indicate that special attention should be given to the classification of temporary streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]