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An embedded forecasting system was developed for the North-Western Mediterranean at 3-km resolution. The system is based on the Symphonie hydrodynamic free surface model and on the variational initialization and forcing platform VIFOP. The regional model is initialized and forced at its open lateral boundaries by the MFS GCM and forced at the surface by the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model. Once a week, a five-day forecast is produced after a hindcast of seven days. This pre-modeling period of 7 days before beginning the forecast allows the development of the small scale features associated to the high resolution. The relevance of the 5-day forecast strategy has been examined by comparing the forecasted fields to hindcast fields (forced by meteorological and oceanic analyses) considered as a reference. Mismatches remain at a very low level indicating a good quality of the forecasted forcing fields and also possibly to the strong wind conditions which prevailed during the period. The embedded forecasts have been compared to theMFS observing system (SST and MedArgo) during 6 forecast cycles between September 2004 and February 2005. It was basically found that in the North-Western Mediterranean, the MFS basin-scale model and thus the regional model forecasts are characterized by large negative biases of salinity in the first 100m under the surface leading thus to too light subsurface waters. The underestimation of temperature by the regional model just below the surface and its overestimation at 30m deep can be attributed to an overestimation of the turbulent mixing. The regional model allows to represent a number of processes especially those induced by the wind as coastal upwelling under stratified conditions, dense water formation over the Gulf of Lion shelf, deep mixing in the convection zone or influence on the Northern Current penetration in the Gulf of Lion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An embedded forecasting system was developed for the North-Western Mediterranean including a regional model and a coastal model of the Gulf of Lion. The system is based on the Symphonie hydrodynamic free surface model and on the variational initialization and forcing platform VIFOP. It was shown that a pre-modeling period of 7 days before 5 beginning the forecast allows the growth of the small scales. The embedded forecasts have been compared to the MFS observing system. It was basically found that in the North-Western Mediterranean, the MFS basin-scale model and thus the regional model forecasts are characterized by large negative biases of salinity in the first 100m under the surface leading thus to too light subsurface waters. The underestimation of 10 temperature by the regional model just below the surface and its overestimation at 30m deep can be associated to an overestimation of the turbulent mixing. The regional and coastal models allow to represent a number of processes especially those induced by the wind as coastal upwelling under stratified conditions, dense water formation over the Gulf of Lion shelf, deep mixing in the convection zone or influence on the Northern 15 Current penetration in the Gulf of Lion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Lagrangian module has been developed and coupled with the 3D circulation model Symphonie to study the influence of hydrodynamic processes on zooplankton transport and distributions in the North Western Mediterranean (NWM). Individuals are released every 3 days from March to August 2001 in two initial areas: around the DYFAMED sampling station in the central Ligurian Sea and in the Rhône river plume. Then the individuals are tracked for 40 days either as passive particles or with a simple diel vertical migration (DVM) pattern. The simulations suggest strong seasonal patterns in the distributions of the individuals released around the DYFAMED sampling station. Individuals spread all over the NWM basin after 40 days but different patterns occur depending on the season, the initial depths of release and the capacity of DVM. Offshore-shelf transport only occurs in April and May with particles ending up in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) in low concentrations. In other months, the Northern Current (NC) can be considered as a barrier for particles entering the GoL from the offshore sea. A quarter to a half of passive individuals released in the Rhône river plume remain in the GoL. The rest is transported by the NC towards the Catalan Sea. Applying a simple DVM scheme does not increase the retention of particles on the shelf. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]