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Decarbonizing road freight transport is difficult due to its reliance on fossil fuel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The role of powertrain electrification in achieving deep decarbonization in road freight transport was studied using a vehicle stock turnover model, focusing on Japan. Twelve vehicle types were considered; combining four powertrains, ICEV, hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV); and three vehicle size classes, normal, compact and mini-sized vehicles. A scenario-based approach was used; considering a Base scenario, and three alternative scenarios targeting powertrain electrification. Between 2012 and 2050, tank to wheel CO2 emissions decrease 42.8% in the Base scenario, due to the reduction of vehicle stock, the improvement of vehicle fuel consumption and the adoption of HEVs. Diffusion of FCEVs in normal vehicles and BEVs in compact and mini-sized vehicles achieves the largest tank to wheel CO2 emissions reductions, up to 44.6% compared with the 2050 baseline value. The net cash flow is positive over the whole time horizon, peaking at 6.7 billion USD/year in 2049 and reaching 6.6 billion USD/year by 2050. Powertrain electrification is not enough to achieve any of the CO2 emissions reduction targets in road freight transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric-drive vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles, are emerging as less polluting alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, it is important to assess their penetration in the vehicle market in the future. A ‘two-step’ approach is used to estimate the optimum market penetration of lightweight and electric-drive vehicles in the long-term and the impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet, focusing on Japan. First, an optimization model is used to estimate the vehicle market composition in 2050. Then, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate light-duty vehicle fleet energy and material consumption, CO 2 emissions and cost. Internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles dominate in the Base scenario. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized. Shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO 2 emissions are prioritized. CO 2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicle diffusion has the largest CO 2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared to the 2050 baseline value; with the net cash flow peaking at 10.2 billion USD/year in 2035 and becoming negative after 2044. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]