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Context: Segregation has been linked to unequal life chances. Individuals from marginalized communities experience more crime, higher levels of poverty, poorer health, and less civic engagement. In addition, segregated metropolitan regions have been found to display inequality in access to basic services. This article builds on these findings by linking segregation to infection and deaths from COVID-19. Methods: Using census data matched to COVID infection and death statistics at the county level, this article offers a theoretical basis for the researchers' choice of segregation measures and predictions for different racial groups. It analyzes the relationship between two dimensions of segregation—racial isolation and racial unevenness—and COVID outcomes for different racial and ethnic groups. Findings: In counties where Black and Latino residents lived in more racially isolated neighborhoods, they were much more likely to contract COVID-19. This pattern was exacerbated in counties with a high proportion of frontline workers. In addition, racial segregation increased COVID-19 death rates for Black, Latino, and white residents. Conclusions: These findings suggest that devastating outcomes of the coronavirus pandemic were linked to a long history of racial marginalization and entrenched discrimination produced by structural inequalities embedded in our geographies. This knowledge should be used to inform public health planning.

(1) Background: Understanding occurrence can help formulate effective preventative laws and regulations. However, the most recent global burden and road injuries (RIs) trends have not been reported. This study reports the burden of RIs globally from 1990 to 2019. (2) Methods: RIs data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) described the trend and burden of RIs. We calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for the above indexes to evaluate the temporal trend of RIs. We evaluated the social-demographic index (SDI) with epidemiological RI parameters and reported proportions of age-standardized rates due to RI. (3) Results: In 2019, the global incidence of RIs reached 103.2 million. The EAPC of RI incidence increased, whereas deaths and DALYs decreased. Age-standardized incident rate (ASIR) was highest in low-middle SDI regions, age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was high in middle SDI regions, and age-standardized DALYs increased in low SDI regions. The highest accident rates were found in those aged 20–24 years old. Cyclist injuries were the leading RIs (34%), though pedestrian and motor vehicle accidents were the leading cause of death (37.4%, 37.6%) and DALYs (35.7%, 32.3%), respectively. (4) Conclusions: Over the past 30 years, RIs incidence increased annually, though death and DALY rates decreased. RIs places a considerable burden on public health in low SDI countries. Data should be used to develop and implement effective measures to reduce the burden of RIs.

Purpose The study was to examine county-level associations of physical activity with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths, per 100,000 county residents. Methods Data were collected from publicly available data sources for 3142 counties and equivalents, including the District of Columbia. Subjective health ratings, percentage uninsured, percentage unemployed, median household income, percentage female residents, percentage White residents, percentage of residents age 65 or older, and rural designation served as controls. Results The two-level random intercept regression showed that physical activity rates at the county level were statistically and negatively associated with COVID-19 cases and deaths. Additional analyses showed that physical activity rates moderated the relationship between cases and deaths, such that the relationship was strongest when physical activity rates were low. Conclusion The results presented here offer empirical evidence of the benefits of county-level physical activity during a pandemic. Implications for public health and physical activity provision are discussed., Graphical Abstract Image, graphical abstract

Background Poisoning is a major problem in India. However, there is little systematic information on the key poisons responsible for most deaths by geographical area and over time. We aimed to review the literature to identify the poison classes causing the greatest number of deaths in India over the last 20 years. Methods We performed a systematic literature review in Medline, Embase and Google Scholar (1999–2018), and Indian online medical journals, to find papers that reported deaths from all forms of poisoning in India, with last search 20 April 2020. We included epidemiological studies, observational studies, randomised trials, interventional studies, and case series published from 1999 to 2018 that showed the number of deaths and autopsy studies indicating the specific poisons or poison classes. Studies providing the case fatality for specific poisons or classes, which enabled calculation of the number of deaths, were also included. We excluded deaths due to animal bites and stings, ethanol or methanol poisoning, and gas inhalation as well as papers reporting a single death (case study of single patient). We grouped the papers into 5-year intervals and identified the two most common poison classes in each paper. We used descriptive statistics to summarise the findings over time based on the causative poison and the location of the study. Results We identified 186 papers reporting 16,659 poisoning deaths between 1999 and 2018. The number of publications per 5-year interval showed no clear trend over the period (48, 38, 67, and 36 for consecutive periods). Half of the deaths (n = 8338, 50.0%) were reported during the first 5 years of the study (1999–2003), the number of deaths declining thereafter (to n = 1714 in 2014–2018). Deaths due to pesticide poisoning (94.5%) were dominant across the study period compared to other classes of poison [hair dye paraphenylenediamine poisoning (2.6%), medicine overdose (1.4%) or plant poisoning (1.0%)]. Among the pesticides, aluminium phosphide was the most important lethal poison during the first 10 years before declining markedly; organophosphorus insecticides were important throughout the period, becoming dominant in the last decade as aluminium phosphide cases declined. Unfortunately, few papers identified the specific organophosphorus insecticide responsible for deaths. Conclusion Use of the published literature to better understand the epidemiology of lethal poisoning in India has clear limitations, including secular variation in publishing practices and interest in poisoning. Unfortunately, there are no long-term detailed, combination hospital and community studies from India to provide this information. In their absence, our review indicates that pesticides are the most important poison in India, with organophosphorus insecticides replacing aluminium phosphide as the key lethal poison after government regulatory changes in 2001 reduced the latter’s lethality. Plant and hair dye poisoning and medicines overdose caused few deaths. Aluminium phosphide deaths mostly occurred in northern Indian states, whereas deaths from organophosphorus insecticide poisoning occurred throughout India. Paraquat poisoning has become a clinical problem in the last 10 years. Lethal pesticide poisoning remains alarmingly common, emphasising the need for additional regulatory interventions to curtail the burden of pesticide poisoning deaths in India. More detailed reporting about the specific pesticide involved in lethal poisoning will be helpful to guide regulatory decisions.

Background: The purpose of this study is to determine the quality of life (QOL) of Turkish seafarers and its relationship with the factors affecting it. Materials and methods: A total of 103 Turkish seafarers completed an Employee Assessment Form and WHOQOL-BREF Scale. Results: The majority of the seafarers who participated in the study were males (98%) of the age group 3648 (44%). Among the seamen, 58% smoked and 42% used alcohol. The rate of exercising was 29% and the mean body mass index was 27.63 +/- 3.78. Average scores of WHOQOL-BREF sub-dimension are 15.99 +/- 1.83 for physical (PHY), 15.77 +/- 2.26 for psychological (PSY), 15.50 +/- 2.73 for social (SOC), 14.17 +/- 2.25 for environmental domain (ENV), and finally 14.18 +/- 2.13 for ENV-TR. Conclusions: According to the results of this study, it is possible to argue that Turkish seafarers have a weak awareness towards improving their health and QOL in their working life and that they need assistance in improving their QOL, especially in psychological and social aspects. WOS:000670634400007 2-s2.0-85109447090 PubMed: 34212353

Background:Ketamine is a phencyclidine derivative with dissociative anaesthetic properties. Increasing numbers of individuals in England take ketamine recreationally. Information on deaths arising from such use in England is presented.Methods:Cases were extracted on 31 January 2020 from the National Programme on Substance Abuse Deaths database, based on text searches of the cause of death, coroner’s verdict and positive toxicology results for the terms ‘ketamine’ or ‘norketamine’.Findings:During 1997–2005, there were Conclusions:Although controlled, recreational ketamine use and related fatalities continue to increase. Consumers need to be more aware of the potentially fatal risks they face.

Context The pandemic has substantially increased the workload of hospital palliative care providers, requiring them to be responsive and innovative despite limited information on the specific end of life care needs of patients with COVID-19. Multi-site data detailing clinical characteristics of patient deaths from large populations, managed by specialist and generalist palliative care providers are lacking. Objectives To conduct a large multicenter study examining characteristics of COVID-19 hospital deaths and implications for care. Methods A multi-center retrospective evaluation examined 434 COVID-19 deaths in 5 hospital trusts over the period March 23, 2020 to May 10, 2020. Results Eighty three percent of patients were over 70.32% were admitted from care homes. Diagnostic timing indicated over 90% of those who died contracted the virus in the community. Dying was recognized in over 90% of patients, with the possibility of dying being identified less than 48 hours from admission for a third. In over a quarter, death occurred less than 24 hours later. Patients who were recognized to be dying more than 72 hours prior to death were most likely to have access to medication for symptom control. Conclusion This large multicenter study comprehensively describes COVID-19 deaths throughout the hospital setting. Clinicians are alert to and diagnose dying appropriately in most patients. Outcomes could be improved by advance care planning to establish preferences, including whether hospital admission is desirable, and alongside this, support the prompt use of anticipatory subcutaneous medications and syringe drivers if needed. Finally, rapid discharges and direct hospice admissions could better utilize hospice beds and improve care.

The capability approach is potentially valuable for economic evaluation at the end of life because of its conceptualization of wellbeing as freedom and the potential for capturing outcomes for those at end of life and those close to persons at the end of life. For decision making, however, this information needs to be integrated into current evaluation paradigms. This research explored weights for an integrated economic evaluation framework using a deliberative approach. Twelve focus groups were held (38 members of the public, 29 “policy makers,” seven hospice volunteers); budget pie tasks were completed to generate weights. Constant comparison was used to analyze qualitative data, exploring principles behind individuals' weightings. Average weights elicited from members of the general population and policy makers for the importance that should be given to close persons (vs. patients) were very similar, at around 30%. A “sliding scale” of weights between health gain and the capability for a good death resulted from the policy maker and volunteer groups, with increasing weight given to the capability for a good death as the trajectory got closer to death. These weights can be used in developing a more comprehensive framework for economic evaluation at end of life.

Several studies have demonstrated an association between individual zinc status and viral respiratory infections; however, evidence regarding COVID‐19 is still missing or insufficient. This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between the prevalence of zinc deficiency and COVID‐19 cases and deaths per million population in the Asian and European countries. The COVID‐19 data from two different time points, that is, May 30 and June 30, 2020 for the Asian population and May 15 and June 15, 2020 for the European population, were analyzed to determine the correlation with the estimated zinc deficiency for these two continents. The prevalence of zinc deficiency was about two times higher in the Asian population (mean 17.5%) than in the European population (mean 8.9%). A significant positive correlation (p

Graphical abstract The pandemic has affected almost 74 million people worldwide as of 17 December 2020. This is the first study that attempts to examine the nexus between the confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant namely PM2.5 in six South Asian countries, from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2020, using the advanced econometric techniques that are robust to heterogeneity across nations. Our findings confirm (1) a strong cross-sectional dependence and significant correlation between COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and air pollutant; (2) long-term relationship between all the meteorological variables, air pollutant, and COVID-19 death cases; (3) temperature, air pressure, and humidity exhibit a significant impact on the COVID-19 confirmed cases, while COVID-19 confirmed cases and air pollutant PM2.5 have a statistically significant impact on the COVID-19 death cases. In this way, the conclusion that high temperature and high humidity increase the transmission of the COVID-19 infections can also be applied to the regions with greater transmission rates, where the minimum temperature is mostly over 21 °C and humidity ranges around 80% for months. From the findings, it is evident that majority of the meteorological factors and air pollutant PM2.5 exhibit significant negative and positive effects on the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases in the six countries under study. Air pollutant PM 2.5 provides more particle surface for the virus to stick and get transported longer distances. Hence, higher particulate pollution levels in the air increase COVID-19 transmission in these six South Asian countries. This information is vital for the government and public health authorities in formulating relevant policies. The study contributes both practically and theoretically to the concerned field of pandemic management. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-12613-6.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has seriously affected the environment, ecology, economy, society, and human health. With the global epidemic dynamics becoming more and more serious, the prediction and analysis of the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 has become an important task. We develop an artificial neural network (ANN) for modeling of the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19. The confirmed cases and deaths data are collected from January 20 to November 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). By introducing root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), and mean absolute error (MAE), statistical indicators of the prediction model are verified and evaluated. The size of training and test confirmed cases and death base employed in the model is optimized. The best simulating performance with RMSE, R, and MAE is realized using the 7 past days' cases as input variables in the training and test dataset. And the estimated R are 0.9948 and 0.9683, respectively. Compared with different algorithms, experimental simulation shows that trainbr algorithm has better performance than other algorithms in reproducing the amount of the confirmed cases and deaths. This study shows that the ANN model is suitable for predicting the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the future. Using the ANN model, we also predict the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 from June 5, 2020 to November 11, 2020. During the predicting period, the R, RMSE, and MAE for new infected confirmed cases of COVID-19 are 0.9848, 17,554, and 12,229, respectively; the R, RMSE, and MAE for new confirmed deaths of COVID-19 are 0.8593, 631.8, and 463.7, respectively. The predicted confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 are very close to the actual confirmed cases and deaths. The results show that continuous and strict control measures should be taken to prevent the further spread of the epidemic.

Background:Maternal death, fetal death and suicidal attack (SA), each one of these topics are an important public health problem. A suicide attack attempt during pregnancy includes all these important issues together and requires additional attention. Some factors may show regional differences such as suicidal method, distribution of attempts according to the gestational week and the most common preferred drugs. The predetermination of these variables may allow taking preventive measures and advantages can be gains on maternal-fetal health. Methods: The data of pregnant women who were admitted to 3 different university hospital emergency departments in same city between 2015 and 2020 after a SA was investigated. SAs features and distribution of attacks based on variables such as age, gravidity and gestational week etc. was recorded. In addition, obstetric/non-obstetric injuries and pregnancy outcomes was also analyzed. Results: The mean age of 78 cases was 26.9 +/- 6.4 (17-44) years. SAs were detected most frequently in the 1st trimester (42.3%) and at least in the 3rd trimester (20.5%). The most preferred SA method (89.7%) was high-dose drug intake. The most commonly preferred drugs were paracetamol, iron/folic acid replacement therapy drugs and antidepressants. Conclusions: Pregnant women are at risk of SA, especially in the first trimester. Contrary to popular belief, 75% of pregnant women who have SA do not have a known psychiatric disease diagnosis before. Therefore, psychiatric evaluation should be a part of routine pregnancy follow-up examination, especially in the first trimester. In this way, pregnant women which have increased risk factors for SA such as alcohol addiction, unwanted pregnancy, and depressive mood can be detected early. In this special patient group, the most commonly SA method is high-dose drug intake. Knowing the high dose treatments for frequently used drugs such as paracetamol by emergency physicians and obstetricians, educating medical staff about treatments can save additional time for mother and fetus and can be a life saver approach.

BackgroundThere is emerging evidence suggesting a link between ambient heat exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisations. Individual and contextual characteristics can affect population vulnerabilities to COPD hospitalisation due to heat exposure. This study quantifies the effect of ambient heat on COPD hospitalisations and examines population vulnerabilities by age, sex, and contextual characteristics.MethodsIndividual data on COPD hospitalisation at high geographical resolution (postcodes) during 2007-2018 in England was retrieved from the small area health statistics unit. Maximum temperature at 1 km×1km resolution was available from the UK Met Office. We employed a case-cross over study design and fitted Bayesian conditional Poisson regression models. We adjusted for relative humidity and national holidays, and examined effect modification by age, sex, green space, average temperature, deprivation and urbanicity.ResultsAfter accounting for confounding, we found a 1.47% (95% Credible Interval 1.19% to 1.73%), increase in the hospitalisation risk for every 1°C increase in temperatures above 23.2°C (lags 0-2 days). We reported weak evidence of an effect modification by sex and age. We found a strong spatial determinant of the COPD hospitalisation risk due to heat exposure, that was alleviated when we accounted for contextual characteristics. 1 851 (95% CrI 1 576 to 2 079) COPD hospitalisations were associated with temperatures above 23.2°C annually.ConclusionOur study suggests that resources should be allocated to support the public health systems, for instance through developing or expanding heat-health alerts, to challenge the increasing future heat-related COPD hospitalisation burden.Key MessagesWhat is the key question?What is the short-term effect of heat exposure on COPD hospitalisation and which contextual/societal factors affect population vulnerability?What is the bottom line?For every 1°C increase in summer temperatures higher than 23.2°C, the risk of COPD hospitalisation increases by 1.47%, and populations in the North and in the South East are more vulnerable.Why read on?This large nationwide study in England using individual data quantifies the effect of heat exposure on COPD hospitalisations; these findings inform future policies regarding preparedness and resilience of public health systems against the increasing COPD burden due to the increasing temperatures.

After an initial decline, tuberculosis cases involving severe illness increased., A mandated shelter-in-place and other restrictions associated with the coronavirus disease pandemic precipitated a decline in tuberculosis diagnoses in San Francisco, California, USA. Several months into the pandemic, severe illness resulting in hospitalization or death increased compared with prepandemic levels, warranting heightened vigilance for tuberculosis in at-risk populations.

This study aims to identify the risk factors affecting deaths related to cardiovascular diseases. The research population comprised of 194 World Health Organization (WHO) member countries, but the data analysis was conducted with the data from 152 countries as 42 of them do not have any data on study variables. Multivariable regression analysis was utilised for this study to analyse the effect of factors regarding metabolism, lifestyle, economic, socio-demographic and health system on the cardiovascular diseases related to deaths. As a result of regression analysis, the number of deaths related to cardiovascular diseases increases with the increase in blood pressure (p < .001), blood glucose (p = .032), obesity rate (p < .001), salt consumption (p < .001), GINI index (p = .002) and dependent age ratio (p < .001); the frequency of cardiovascular disease-related deaths is higher in the countries within low (p < .001) and high (p < .001) middle-income levels; yet, the number of deaths based on cardiovascular diseases diminishes with the increase in the number of doctors (p = .005) and health expenditures per capita (p = .044). The research findings are considered to guide the countries in the determination of their steps towards the prevention of deaths related to cardiovascular diseases.

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are the main causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Methods: The main evidences about the NCDs and CRDs burden and related risk factors, from updated international reports and results of original researches, were collected and described in this review. Results: Most recent evidence is available from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2017 reports. There were 3.2 million deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 495,000 deaths due to asthma. COPD was the seventh leading cause of years of life lost (YLLs). Overall, prevalent cases of CRDs were 545 million: about 50% for COPD and 50% for asthma. Incident cases of CRDs were 62 million, mostly due to asthma (69%) and COPD (29%). COPD accounted for 81.6 million disability-adjusted life years, asthma for 22.8 million. COPD prevalence of 9.1% has been found in a recent general population sample of North- Eastern Italy, while in Central Italy a 25-year follow-up of a general population sample has shown an increased prevalence of COPD and asthma up to 6.8% and 7.8%, respectively. In Central Italy, a COPD incidence of 8% and an asthma incidence of 3.2% have been found in adult subjects at an 18-year follow-up. Among the risk factors, a relevant role is played by smoking and high body mass index for asthma, while smoking, particulate matter pollution, ambient ozone pollution, occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases and fumes, as well as second-hand smoke, play an important role for COPD. Forecasting the YLLs by 2040 indicates a rising toll from several NCDs due to population growth and aging, with COPD expected to reach the fourth leading cause. Conclusions: Several recent studies and international reports highlighted the huge global health burden of CRDs and other major NCDs, pointing out the need for implementing international collaborations to fight this epidemic trend.

Suicide by pesticide self-poisoning is a major public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries. While effectiveness studies are required to test alternative prevention approaches, economic evidence is lacking to inform decision-making in research priority setting. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the costs of a shop-based gatekeeper training programme for pesticide vendors seeking to prevent pesticide self-poisoning in rural Sri Lanka and assess its potential for cost-effectiveness.Ex-ante cost and cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) analyses were performed from a governmental perspective based on a three-year analytic horizon, using 'no programme' as a comparator. A programme model targeting all 535 pesticide shops in the North Central Province and border areas was applied. Total programme costs (TPC) were estimated in 2019 USD using an ingredients approach and 3% annual discounting. The Sri Lankan gross domestic product per capita and life years saved were used as CET and effectiveness measure, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were performed.TPC were estimated at 31 603.03 USD. TPC were sensitive to cost changes of training material and equipment and the programme lifetime. The programme needs to prevent an estimated 0.23 fatal pesticide self-poisoning cases over three years to be considered cost-effective. In the sensitivity analyses, the highest number of fatal cases needed to be prevented to obtain cost-effectiveness was 4.55 over three years.From an economic perspective, the programme has a very high potential to be cost-effective. Research assessing its effectiveness should therefore be completed, and research analysing its transferability to other settings prioritised.Le suicide par auto-intoxication par les pesticides est un défi majeur de santé publique dans les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Bien que des études d'efficacité soient nécessaires pour tester d'autres approches de prévention, les données économiques manquent pour informer la prise de décision dans les priorités de recherche. Par conséquent, cette étude visait à estimer les coûts d'un programme de formation des vendeurs dans les magasins de pesticides visant à prévenir l'auto-intoxication par les pesticides dans les régions rurales du Sri Lanka et à évaluer son potentiel de rentabilité. MÉTHODES: Les analyses ex-ante des coûts et des seuils de rentabilité (SR) ont été réalisées dans une perspective gouvernementale sur la base d'un horizon analytique de trois ans, en utilisant «l’absence de programme» comme comparateur. Un modèle de programme ciblant les 535 magasins de pesticides de la province du Centre-Nord et des zones frontalières a été appliqué. Les coûts totaux du programme (CTP) ont été estimés en USD 2019 en utilisant une approche d’ingrédients et une remise annuelle de 3%. Le produit intérieur brut sri-lankais par habitant et les années de vie sauvées ont été utilisés comme SR et mesure d'efficacité, respectivement. Des analyses de sensibilité ont été effectuées. RÉSULTATS: le CTP a été estimé à 31.603,03 USD. Le CTP était sensible aux changements de coût du matériel et de l'équipement de formation et de la durée de vie du programme. Le programme devrait prévenir environ 0,23 cas d'auto-intoxication mortelle par des pesticide sur trois ans pour être considéré comme rentable. Dans les analyses de sensibilité, le plus grand nombre de cas mortels à prévenir pour obtenir une rentabilité était de 4,55 sur trois ans.D'un point de vue économique, le programme a un potentiel très élevé pour être rentable. La recherche évaluant son efficacité doit donc être complétée et la recherche analysant sa transférabilité à d'autres contextes doit être priorisée.

Aim To determine the health facility‐based perinatal mortality rate, its causes and avoidable factors using the perinatal mortality surveillance and response guidelines. Design This was an action study conducted in one of the districts in Western Uganda from 1 January–31 December 2019. Methods A total of 20 perinatal death cases were recruited consecutively. Data were collected using a Ministry of Health Perinatal Death Surveillance and Response (PDSR) questionnaire containing questions on pregnancy, delivery and immediate postnatal care. We used descriptive statistics to describe key data elements. Results We found a health facility‐based perinatal mortality rate of 17.3 deaths per 1,000 live births. Birth asphyxia was the most common cause of perinatal deaths. Seven, three and ten mothers delayed seeking, reaching and receiving appropriate health care, respectively.

Background India has launched the malaria elimination initiative in February 2016. Studies suggest that estimates of malaria are useful to rationalize interventions and track their impact. Hence, a national study was launched to estimate burden of malaria in India in 2015. Methods For sampling, all 624 districts of India were grouped in three Annual Parasite Incidence (cases per thousand population) categories, five (high) API. Using probability proportional to size (PPS) method, two districts from each stratum were selected covering randomly 200,000 persons per district. Active surveillance was strengthened with 40 trained workers per study district. Data on malaria cases and deaths was collated from all health care providers i.e. pathological laboratories, private practitioners and hospitals in private and public health sectors and was used for analysis and burden estimation. Results Out of 1215,114 population under surveillance, 198,612 (16.3%) tests were performed and 19,386 (9.7%) malaria cases were detected. The malaria cases estimated in India were 3875,078 (95% confidence interval 3792,018–3958,137) with API of 3.05 (2.99–3.12) including 2789,483 (2740,577–2838,389) Plasmodium falciparum with Annual Falciparum Incidence of 2.2 (2.16–2.24). Out of 8025 deaths investigated, 102 (1.27%) were attributed to malaria. The estimated deaths in India were 29,341 (23,354–35,327) including 19,067 (13,665–24,470) confirmed and 10,274 (7694–12,853) suspected deaths in 2015–2016. Conclusions Estimated malaria incidence was about four folds greater than one million reported by the national programme, but three folds lesser than thirteen million estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO). However, the estimated deaths were 93 folds more than average 313 deaths reported by the national malaria programme in 2015–2016. The 29,341 deaths were comparable with 24,000 deaths in 2015 and 22,786 deaths in 2016 estimated by the WHO for India. These malaria estimates can serve as a benchmark for tracking the success of malaria elimination campaign in India.

Background Adults 65 years and older (seniors) experience more complications following influenza infection than younger adults. We estimated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of a trivalent high dose (HD-IIV3) versus an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aIIV3) in seniors for respiratory-related hospitalizations. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using claims data from Optum’s Clinformatics® Data Mart to compare outcome rates between seniors who received HD-IIV3 versus aIIV3 during the 2016/17 and 2017/18, predominantly A/H3N2 respiratory seasons. Rates were adjusted for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, previous influenza vaccination, and geography. We used the previous event rate ratio (PERR) approach to address bias by time-fixed unmeasured confounders. Results We identified 842,282 HD-IIV3 and 34,157 aIIV3 recipients for the 2016/17 season and 1,058,638 HD-IIV3 and 189,636 aIIV3 recipients for the 2017/18 season. The pooled rVE of HD-IIV3 versus aIIV3 for respiratory-related hospitalizations over both seasons was 12% (95% confidence interval: 3.3%–20%); 13% (−6.4% to 32%) for the 2016/17 season and 12% (2.1%–21%) for the 2017/18 season. Conclusions Pooled over two predominantly A/H3N2 respiratory seasons, HD-IIV3 was associated with fewer respiratory hospital admissions than aIIV3 in senior members of large national managed health care company in the U.S.

Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. We are grateful to the surveillance systems, including cancer registries, that generated and shared observed cancer burden data. S M Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. H Ariffin acknowledges support from the Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia (grant FRGS/1/2021/SKK0/UM/01/1). F Barra acknowledges support from Lega Italiana per la Lotta contro i Tumori - LILT - Bando 5 x 1000 anno 2019. L Belo and M Carvalho acknowledge the support from FCT in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of i4HB. A J Cohen was supported by the Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA, USA. J Conde acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council - ERC Starting Grant 848325. V M Costa acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. T C Ekundayo was supported by the African-German Network of Excellence in Science (AGNES), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (AvH). N Ghith acknowledges support from a grant from Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF16OC0021856). J C Glasbey is support by a Doctoral Research Fellowship from the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR300175). V K Gupta and V B Gupta acknowledge funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia. C Herteliu, A Pana, and M Ausloos acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. C Herteliu is also partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. S Hussain was supported from Operational Programme Research, Development and Education–Project, Postdoc2MUNI (number CZ.02.2. 69/0.0/0.0/18_053/0016952). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through the grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J H Kauppila acknowledges research grants from Sigrid Jusélius Foundation and the Finnish Cancer Foundation. M N Khatib acknowledges support from Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (deemed-to-be-university). Y J Kim was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional assistance by Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. K Krishan is supported by the UGC Centre of Advanced Study (Phase II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). M-C Li was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 110-2314-B-003-001). G Liu acknowledges support from the CREATE Hope scientific fellowship from Lung Foundation Australia. J Liu acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation (72122001). J A Loureiro was supported by Scientific Employment Stimulus (FCT; CEECINST/00049/2018). E Mathews is supported by a Clinical and Public Health Early Career Fellowship (grant number IA/CPHE/17/1/503345) from the DBT India Alliance/Wellcome Trust Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2018–2023). T J Meretoja was supported by an unrestricted grant from Cancer Foundation Finland sr. S Mohammed acknowledges a fellowship grant from Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, outside the submitted work. M Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Center at Guy’s and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King’s College London. L Monasta received support from the Italian Ministry of Health at the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste - Italy (RC 34/2017). U Mons is supported by the Marga and Walter Boll Foundation, Kerpen, Germany. M A Moosavi acknowledges the financial support of National Institute of Genetics Engineering and Biotechnology (NIGEB). J Musa acknowledges support from the NIH/FICK43TW011416 for research-protected time for cervical cancer research and career development at University of Jos. V Nuñez-Samudio is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). O O Odukoya acknowledges support by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the award number K43TW010704 for research-protected time. The content is solely the responsibility of all the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. A S Oguntade acknowledges funding by a doctoral scholarship from the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford (Oxford Population Health). J R Padubidri acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for their constant support in research collaborations. R G Pestell acknowledges support from NIH grant W81XWH1810605 Breast Cancer Research, Breakthrough Grant R21 CA235139-01. Z Z Piracha acknowledges the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad (44000), Pakistan. R A Radhakrishnan acknowledges support from Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance - IA/CPHI/18/1/503927. U Saeed acknowledges the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad, Pakistan. A M Samy acknowledges the support from Ain Shams University and the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. F Sha was supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (grant number KQTD20190929172835662). H R Shahsavari acknowledges the Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS) Research Council. A Shetty acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for all the academic support. D A S Silva acknowledges financing in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brazil (CAPES)—Finance Code 001 and D A S Silva is supported in part by CNPq-Brazil (309589/2021-5). L M L R Silva was supported by project CENTRO-04-3559-FSE-000162, Fundo Social Europeu (FSE). Am Singh is supported by the International Graduate Research Scholarship, University of Tasmania. R Suliankatchi Abdulkader acknowledges support from ICMR—National Institute of Epidemiology. B Unnikrishnan acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. H Xiao acknowledges support from the Public Health Sciences Division of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. X Xu is supported by the University of New South Wales (Australia) Scientia Program. C Yu was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 82173626) and Wuhan Medical Research Program of Joint Fund of Hubei Health Committee (grant number WJ2019H304). Sí

Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. O Adetokunboh acknowledges support from Department of Science and Innovation and National Research Foundation. S Afzal acknowledges the institutional support of King Edward Medical University. S Aljunid acknowledges Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, Health Science Centre, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. C Herteliu also acknowledges partial support by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. T Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. B Bikbov acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703226. Institute of Applied Health Sciences; School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Scotland. The salary for N Ghith is covered by a grant from Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF16OC0021856). V B Gupta acknowledges funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia. V K Gupta acknowledges funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia. T Joo acknowledges support from the National Research, Development and Innovation Office of Hungary under grant RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006 (Data-driven Health Division of Health Security National Laboratory). S Vittal Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Y J Kim acknowledges support from the Research Management Centre Xiamen University Malaysia [XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. G Lucchetti is a grantee of the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development Research Productivity - Level 1D. L Mantovani acknowledges support by Italian Ministry of Health Ricerca Corrente - IRCCS Multimedica. M Molokhia acknowledges support by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Center at Guy’s and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King’s College London. L Monasta reports support for the present manuscript from the Italian Ministry of Health on project Ricerca Corrente 34/2017 and payments made to the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo. R Moreira acknowledges the CNPQ productivity grant (316607/2021-5). B R Nascimento is partially supported by CNPq (Research Productivity Grant, 312382/2019-7), the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Improving the prevention and detection of Heart Valve disease across the Lifespan, 2021), and FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). J R Padubidri acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India for their constant support in conducting research. D Rasella reports financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and State Research Agency through the Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023 programme (CEX2018-000806-S), and financial support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the Centres de Recerca de Catalunya programme. U Saeed would like to acknowledge the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad (44000), Pakistan. A M Samy acknowledges the support from Ain Shams University and the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. U Saeed would like to acknowledge Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore. Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for supporting research activities. R T-S is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Institute of Health Carlos III, CIBERSAM, INCLIVA (PID2021-129099OB-I00). D Vervoort is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) in support of his academic career. Serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-financed through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of The Republic of Serbia. This work was supported, in whole or in part, by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1152504. Under the grant conditions of the Foundation, a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Generic License has already been assigned to the Author Accepted Manuscript version that might arise from this submission. Sí

Background Postoperative opioid use plays an important role in the global opioid crisis, but little is known about in-hospital opioid use trends of large surgical units. We investigated whether postoperative in-hospital opioid consumption changed in a large academic neurosurgical unit between 2007 and 2018. Methods We extracted the data of consumed opioids in the neurosurgical intensive care unit and two bed wards between 2007 and 2018. Besides overall consumption, we analyzed the trends for weak (tramadol and codeine), strong, and the most commonly used opioids. The use of various opioids was standardized using the defined daily doses (DDDs) of each opioid agent. A linear regression analysis was performed to estimate annual treatment day-adjusted changes with 95% confidence intervals. Results Overall, 121 361 opioid DDDs were consumed during the 196 199 treatment days. Oxycodone was the most commonly used postoperative opioid (49% of all used opioids) in neurosurgery. In the bed wards, the use of oral oxycodone increased 375% (on average 13% (9–17%) per year), and the use of transdermal buprenorphine 930% (on average 26% (9–45%) per year) over the 12-year period. Despite the increased use of strong opioids in the bed wards (on average 3% (1–4%) per year), overall opioid use decreased 39% (on average 6% (4–7%) per year) between 2007 and 2018. Conclusions Due to the increase of strong opioid use in the surgical bed wards, we encourage other large teaching hospitals and surgical units to investigate whether their opioid use trends are similarly worrisome and whether the opioid consumption changes in the hospital setting are transferred to opioid use patterns or opioid-related harms after discharge.

Introduction: The outbreak of COVID-19 as changed patterns of mortality in different setups. The rate of suicide has increased in some countries during the pandemic while the overall death rates have decreased. The study was conducted with objective to find out the prevalence of unnatural deaths among the autopsy cases brought at tertiary care hospital during COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study using the records of the medico legal autopsies conducted from 24th March 2020 to 23rd August 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Pokhara Academy of Health Sciences. Ethical approval was taken from Institutional Review Committee of Pokhara Academy of Health Sciences (Reference number 28.2077/78). Whole sampling method was used. Records which were available were included in the study whereas those cases whose complete records were not available were excluded. Point estimate at 95% confidence interval was calculated along with frequency and proportion for binary data. Results: Out of 188 deaths studied at the autopsy during the COVID-19 pandemic period, the prevalence of unnatural deaths was 147 (78.19%) (71.04-85.33 at 95% Confidence Interval). Among these deaths, 109 (74.14%) were males and 38 (25.85%) were females. Suicide was the most common manner attributing to 78 (53.06%) of the unnatural deaths. Conclusions: The prevalence of suicide was more than those demonstrated by earlier observations in similar settings before the pandemic period. Suicidal deaths were more common during the COVID 19 pandemic. This is an indicator of frustration of the people and necessary steps have to be taken to decrease such deaths in similar conditions to come.

Climate change leads to more days with extremely hot temperatures. Previous analyses of heat waves have documented a short-term rise in mortality. The results on the relationship between high temperatures and hospitalisations, especially in vulnerable patients admitted to nursing homes, are inconsistent. The objective of this research was to examine the discrepancy between heat-related mortality and morbidity in nursing homes. A time-stratified case-crossover study about the impact of heat waves on mortality and hospitalisations between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 was conducted in 10 nursing homes over 5 years in Flanders, Belgium. In this study, the events were deaths and hospitalisations. We selected our control days during the same month as the events and matched them by day of the week. Heat waves were the exposure. Conditional logistic regression models were applied. The associations were reported as odds ratios at lag 0, 1, 2, and 3 and their 95% confidence intervals. In the investigated time period, 3048 hospitalisations took place and 1888 residents died. The conditional logistic regression showed that odds ratios of mortality and hospitalisations during heat waves were 1.61 (95% confidence interval 1.10-2.37) and 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.67-1.36), respectively, at lag 0. Therefore, the increase in mortality during heat waves was statistically significant, but no significant changes in hospitalisations were obtained. Our result suggests that heat waves have an adverse effect on mortality in Flemish nursing homes but have no significant effect on the number of hospitalisations. ispartof: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH vol:18 issue:20 ispartof: location:Switzerland status: published

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading global cause of death and share common risk factors. Little quantitative data are available on the patterns of each NCDs death and dietary factors by national income level and region. We aimed to identify the trend of NCDs deaths and dietary factors with other health-related behaviors across national income levels and geographical regions. Methods: Three databases were collected, including the World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, and World Bank in 2014. These were analyzed to describe the trend for NCDs deaths and dietary factors with health-related behaviors across national income levels (high income, upper-middle income, lower-middle income, and low income) from 151 countries using variance-weighted least-squares linear regression. Results: Lower-middle-income and low-income countries in Africa and Asia had higher death rates of NCDs. More than 30% of the population had raised blood pressure with higher carbohydrate intake and lower protein and fat intake compared to high-income European countries in 2014. High-income countries had the highest prevalence of raised total cholesterol, overweight, and obesity, the highest total energy, fat, and protein intake, and the highest supplies of animal fat, stimulants, sugar and sweetener, vegetable oil, and milk, as well as insufficient activity with an increasing trend (p for trend &lt, 0.001). Conclusion: There were differences in NCDs risk factors and dietary factors by national income and region. Accordingly, measures should be taken to suit the situation in each country. Our findings have significance for health workers and health policies preventing and controlling the rise of NCDs.

Background Several studies have suggested no change in the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) treated in intensive care units (ICUs). This is mainly due to the shift in TBI epidemiology toward older and sicker patients. In Finland, the share of the population aged 65 years and over has increased the most in Europe during the last decade. We aimed to assess changes in 12-month and hospital mortality of patients with TBI treated in the ICU in Finland. Methods We used a national benchmarking ICU database (Finnish Intensive Care Consortium) to study adult patients who had been treated for TBI in four tertiary ICUs in Finland during 2003–2019. We divided admission years into quartiles and used multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusted for case-mix, to assess the association between admission year and mortality. Results A total of 4535 patients were included. Between 2003–2007 and 2016–2019, the patient median age increased from 54 to 62 years, the share of patients having significant comorbidity increased from 8 to 11%, and patients being dependent on help in activities of daily living increased from 7 to 15%. Unadjusted hospital and 12-month mortality decreased from 18 and 31% to 10% and 23%, respectively. After adjusting for case-mix, a reduction in odds of 12-month and hospital mortality was seen in patients with severe TBI, intracranial pressure monitored patients, and mechanically ventilated patients. Despite a reduction in hospital mortality, 12-month mortality remained unchanged in patients aged ≥ 70 years. Conclusion A change in the demographics of ICU-treated patients with TBI care is evident. The outcome of younger patients with severe TBI appears to improve, whereas long-term mortality of elderly patients with less severe TBI has not improved. This has ramifications for further efforts to improve TBI care, especially among the elderly.

Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days in 2021 versus 2020 and no significant differences in deaths. The combination of non-alternative hypotheses may help explain the discrepancy between the results in the entire population and the vaccination’s success claimed by the ISS in reducing infections, serious cases and deaths: a bias: counting as unvaccinated also "those vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "those vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation".a systematic error: counting as unvaccinated also "vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". Many reports show an increase in COVID-19 cases in these time-windows, and related data should be separated levels of protective effectiveness in vaccinated people, often considered stable, actually show signs of progressive reduction over time, which could contribute to reducing the overall population resultunvaccinated people show more severe disease than in 2020, supporting also in humans the theory of imperfect vaccines, which offer less resistance to the entry of germs than the resistance later encountered inside the human body. This favors the selection of more resistant and virulent mutants, that can be spread by vaccinated people. This damages first the unvaccinated people, but ultimately the whole community. An open scientific debate is needed to discuss these hypotheses, following the available evidence (as well as to discuss the inconsistent theory of unvaccinated young people as reservoirs of viruses/mutants), to assess the long-term and community impact of different vaccination strategies.

Hospital-acquired infections are emerging major concurrent conditions during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. We conducted a retrospective review of hospitalizations during March‒October 2020 of adults tested by reverse transcription PCR for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We evaluated associations of COVID-19 diagnosis with risk for laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infections (LCBIs, primary outcome), time to LCBI, and risk for death by using logistic and competing risks regression with adjustment for relevant covariates. A total of 10,848 patients were included in the analysis: 918 (8.5%) were given a diagnosis of COVID-19, and 232 (2.1%) had LCBIs during their hospitalization. Of these patients, 58 (25%) were classified as having central line‒associated bloodstream infections. After adjusting for covariates, COVID-19‒positive status was associated with higher risk for LCBI and death. Reinforcement of infection control practices should be implemented in COVID-19 wards, and review of superiority and inferiority ranking methods by National Healthcare Safety Network criteria might be needed.

Resumo Fundamento: O infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM) é a principal causa de óbito no Brasil e no mundo. Aproximadamente metade dos óbitos ocorrem fora do ambiente hospitalar. Objetivos: Analisar a distribuição, a evolução temporal e as características sociodemográficas (CSD) dos óbitos intra e extra-hospitalares por IAM nas capitais brasileiras e a sua relação com indicadores municipais de desenvolvimento (IMD). Métodos: Estudo ecológico com contagem anual dos óbitos por IAM nas 27 capitais brasileiras de 2007 a 2016, os quais foram divididos em dois grupos, intra-hospitalar (H) e extra-hospitalar (EH). Avaliou-se a evolução temporal das taxas de mortalidade em cada grupo e as diferenças das CSD. Modelos de regressão binominal negativa compararam temporalmente a contagem de óbitos em cada grupo com as seguintes variáveis: residir nas regiões Sul e Sudeste (S/SE), índice de desenvolvimento humano municipal (IDHM), índice de Gini e expectativa de anos de estudo (EAE). Considerou-se estatisticamente valores significativos de p < 0,05. Resultados: A taxa de mortalidade EH para o conjunto das capitais aumentou ao longo do tempo. Todas as CSD pesquisadas foram difententes entre os grupos (p < 0,001). No grupo EH prevaleceram os óbitos em homens, em pacientes ≥ 80 anos e em solteiros. O S/SE elevou a incidência de óbitos extra-hospitalares (IRR = 2,84; IC 95% = 1,67-4,85), enquanto o maior EAE registrou queda (IRR = 0,86; IC 95% = 0,77-0,97). Para o grupo H, o maior IDHM reduziu a incidência de óbitos (IRR = 0,44; IC 95% = 0,33-0,58), enquanto o maior EAE apresentou crescimento (IRR = 1,09; IC 95% = 1,03-1,15). Conclusão: Os óbitos intra e extra-hospitalares por IAM nas capitais apresentam diferenças sociodemográficas, incidência influenciada por IMD e progressivo aumento da ocorrência extra-hospitalar. Abstract Background: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the main cause of death in Brazil and the world. Approximately half of these deaths occur outside the hospital. Objectives: To analyze the distribution, temporal evolution, and sociodemographic characteristics (SDC) of in- and out-of-hospital deaths by AMI in Brazilian state capitals and their relationship with municipal development indicators (MDI). Methods: This is an ecological study of the number of deaths due to AMI reported annually by the 27 Brazilian state capitals from 2007 to 2016; these were divided into 2 groups: in-hospital (H) and out-of-hospital (OH). We evaluated the temporal evolution of mortality rates in each group and differences in SDC. Negative binomial regression models were used to compare the temporal evolution of the number of deaths in each group with the following variables: residing in the South/Southeast regions (S/SE), municipal human development index (MHDI), Gini coefficient, and expected years of schooling (EYS). We considered p-values

Objectives To inform future policies and disaster preparedness plans in the vulnerable nursing home setting, we need greater insight into the relationship between nursing homes’ (NHs’) quality and the spread and severity of COVID-19 in NH facilities. We therefore extend current evidence on the relationships between NH quality and resident COVID-19 infection rates and deaths, taking into account NH structural characteristics and community characteristics. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting and Participants 15,390 Medicaid- and Medicare-certified NHs. Methods We obtained and merged the following data sets: (1) COVID-19 weekly data reported by each nursing home to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Healthcare Safety Network, (2) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Five Star Quality Rating System, (3) county-level COVID-19 case counts, (4) county-level population data, and (5) county-level sociodemographic data. Results Among 1-star NHs, there were an average of 13.19 cases and 2.42 deaths per 1000 residents per week between May 25 and December 20, 2020. Among 5-star NHs, there were an average of 9.99 cases and 1.83 deaths per 1000 residents per week. The rate of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 31% higher among 1-star NHs compared with 5-star NHs [model 1: incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.39], and the rate of COVID-19 deaths was 30% higher (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.20, 1.41). These associations were only partially explained by differences in community spread of COVID-19, case mix, and the for-profit status and size of NHs. Conclusions and Implications We found that COVID-19 case and death rates were substantially higher among NHs with lower star ratings, suggesting that NHs with quality much below average are more susceptible to the spread of COVID-19. This relationship, particularly with regard to case rates, can be partially attributed to external factors: lower-rated NHs are often located in areas with greater COVID-19 community spread and serve more socioeconomically vulnerable residents than higher-rated NHs.

The purpose of the study is to evaluate county-wide health systems using the data set of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall design of study comprises a literature review, secondary data, and a mathematical analysis. It is a cross-sectional quantitative study following a deductive approach. It uses the data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic taken from the website of Worldometer as of April 8, 2020. The study uses a gray incidence analysis model (commonly known as Gray Relational Analysis, i.e., GRA) as its research methodology. On the basis of the results of GRA, a classification has been made under a predetermined scheme of ensigns: much better, better, somewhat better, fair, poor, somewhat worse, and worse health systems. There are a total 211 countries that have been divided into the seven aforementioned categories. Findings of the study show that Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries fall predominantly under the much better ensign, whereas Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Schengen Area (SA), and/or European Union (EU) countries fall under the worse ensign. Pakistan falls under the ensign of poor. It is an original attempt to evaluate the response of health systems based on real data using a scientific methodology. The study provides valuable information about the health systems of the countries for forming an informed opinion about the health systems herein. The study provides useful new information for stakeholders and a new framework for future research.

The MAMAACT intervention aimed to address ethnic and social disparity in stillbirth and infant health by improving management of pregnancy complications. This process evaluation of the intervention was guided by the British Medical Research Council’s framework. We examined implementation through dose, reach, and fidelity, important mechanisms and the influence of contextual factors. The intervention included a six-hour training session for antenatal care (ANC) midwives in intercultural communication and cultural competence, two follow-up dialogue meetings, and health education materials (leaflet and app) on warning signs of severe pregnancy complications and how to respond for pregnant women. A mixed-methods approach was applied. Cross-sectional survey data and administrative data were used to assess intervention reach and dose. Qualitative data (records from dialogue meetings with midwives, participant observations and field notes from ANC visits, focus group interviews with midwives, and individual interviews with non-Western immigrant women) evaluated intervention fidelity, mechanisms, and contextual barriers. More than 80% of women received the MAMAACT leaflet and many found the content useful. The app was used more selectively. Midwives described being more aware and reflective in their communication with women from various cultural backgrounds. Organizational factors in ANC (time pressure, lack of flexibility in visits, poor interpreter services), barriers in women’s everyday life (lack of social network, previous negative experiences/lack of trust and domestic responsibilities), and habitual interaction patterns among midwives served as contextual barriers. The reach of the intervention was high and it was evaluated positively by both pregnant women and midwives. Organizational factors hindered changes towards more needs-based communication in ANC potentially hindering the intended mechanisms of the intervention. When interpreting the intervention effects, attention should be drawn to both organizational and interpersonal factors in the clinic as well as the pregnant women’s life situations.

We report the epidemiology of Lassa fever in Bauchi State, a disease-endemic region, in Nigeria. Since 2015, major increases in Lassa fever attack rate and in the case-fatality rate have occurred in this state. A delay in seeking care by a case-patient for >7 days after symptom onset was the major predictor of death.

Background We compared AIDS-related mortality rates in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Brazil during 2006–2015 and examined associated risk factors . Methods Data on ART use in PLHIV and AIDS mortality in Brazil was analysed with piecewise constant exponential models. Mortality rates and hazard ratios were estimated for 0–6, 6–12, 13–24, 25–36 and > 36 months of ART use and adjusted for region, age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year of ART initiation. An additional analysis restricted to those with data on risk group was also performed. Results 269,076 individuals were included in the analysis, 165,643 (62%) males and 103,433 (38%) females, with 1,783,305 person-years of follow-up time. 21,749 AIDS deaths were reported and 8898 deaths occurred in the first year of ART. The risk of death in the first six months decreased with early ART initiation; those starting treatment early with CD4 > 500 cells per μL had a hazard ratio of 0.06 (95% CI 0.05–0.07) compared with CD4

Prolonged grief disorder (PGD), characterized by severe, persistent and disabling grief, is newly included in the International Classification of Diseases 11 (ICD-11). Receiving a PGD diagnosis could lead to stigmatizing public reactions (i.e. public stigma), yet research on this topic is limited. Additionally, while there is evidence that experiencing suicide bereavement causes public stigma, no studies to date have investigated the interaction between PGD and cause of death on public stigma. To fill these knowledge gaps, this experimental study tested if a PGD diagnosis (vs. no diagnosis) and experiencing suicide bereavement (vs. homicide and natural loss) cause public stigma. Three hundred and seventeen adults from the general population were randomly assigned to read one of 6 different vignettes of a person with and without PGD who had lost a spouse through a suicide, homicide or a stroke. After reading a vignette, negative attributions, emotional reactions, and desire for social distance were assessed. Notably, only persons with PGD were attributed relatively more negative characteristics, and elicited more anger, anxiety and pro-social emotions, and a larger preferred social distance in participants. This study supports the claim that PGD causes public stigma, but nuances claims that suicide bereavement induces public stigma.

Aim: Intensive treatment regimens have contributed to a marked increase in childhood cancer survival rates. Death due to treatment-related adverse effects becomes an increasingly important area to further improve overall survival. In this study, we examined 5-year survival in children with cancer to identify risk factors for treatment-related mortality (TRM). Methods: All children (aged

Aim This paper examines the change in neonatal resuscitation practices after the implementation of the Helping Babies Breathe (HBB) programme. Methods A systematic review was carried out on studies reporting the impact of HBB programmes among the literature found in Medline, POPLINE, LILACS, African Index Medicus, Cochrane, Web of Science and Index Medicus for the Eastern Mediterranean Region database. We selected clinical trials with randomised control, quasi‐experimental and cross‐sectional designs. We used a data extraction tool to extract information on intervention and outcome reporting. We carried out a meta‐analysis of the extracted data on the neonatal resuscitation practices following HBB programme using Review Manager. Results Four studies that reported on neonatal resuscitation practices before and after the implementation of the HBB programme were identified. The pooled results showed no changes in the use of stimulation (RR‐0.54; 95% CI, 0.21–1.42), suctioning (RR‐0.48; 95% CI, 0.18–1.27) and bag‐and‐mask ventilation (RR‐0.93; 95% CI, 0.47–1.83) after HBB training. The proportion of babies receiving bag‐and‐mask ventilation within the Golden Minute of birth increased by more than 2.5 times (RR‐2.67; 95% CI, 2.17–3.28). Conclusion The bag‐and‐mask ventilation within Golden minute has improved following the HBB programme. Implementation of HBB training improves timely initiation of bag‐and‐mask ventilation within one minute of birth.

Highlights • Increase in car trips can lead to 400 extra deaths and 20,500 YLL per year. • Rise in motorcycles can respond to 370 extra deaths and over 18,500 YLL per year. • Changes to bus trips can avert over 600 deaths and 31,500 YLL per year. • Road traffic fatalities were the largest contributor to changes in deaths and YLL. Background: Health impact assessments of alternative travel patterns are urgently needed to inform transport and urban planning in African cities, but none exists so far. Objective: To quantify the health impacts of changes in travel patterns in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana. Methods: We estimated changes to population exposures to physical activity, air pollution, and road traffic fatality risk and consequent health burden (deaths and years of life lost prematurely – YLL) in response to changes in transportation patterns. Five scenarios were defined in collaboration with international and local partners and stakeholders to reflect potential local policy actions. Results: Swapping bus and walking trips for car trips can lead to more than 400 extra deaths and 20,500 YLL per year than travel patterns observed in 2009. If part of the rise in motorisation is from motorcycles, we estimated an additional nearly 370 deaths and over 18,500 YLL per year. Mitigating the rise in motorisation by swapping long trips by car or taxi to bus trips is the most beneficial for health, averting more than 600 premature deaths and over 31,500 YLL per year. Without significant improvements in road safety, reduction of short motorised trips in favour of cycling and walking had no significant net health benefits as non-communicable diseases deaths and YLL benefits were offset by increases in road traffic deaths. In all scenarios, road traffic fatalities were the largest contributor to changes in deaths and YLL. Conclusions: Rising motorisation, particularly from motorcycles, can cause significant increase in health burden in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area. Mitigating rising motorisation by improving public transport would benefit population health. Tackling road injury risk to ensure safe walking and cycling is a top priority. In the short term, this will save lives from injury. Longer term it will help halt the likely fall in physical activity.

ObjectivesTo explore how the time of delivery influences childbirth experience.DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingChildbirth in the four Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District hospitals, Finland, from 2012 to 2018.Participants105 847 childbirths with a singleton live fetus.Main outcome measuresChildbirth experience measured by Visual Analogue Scale (VAS).ResultsThe major difference in average childbirth experience measured by VAS was between primiparas (8.03; 95% CI 8.01 to 8.04) and multiparas (8.47; 95% CI 8.45 to 8.48). Risk ratio (RR) of the low VAS (≤5) was 2.3 when primiparas were compared with multiparas. Differences in VAS between distinct periods were found in two stages: annual and time of day. The decrease in VAS from 2012–2016 to 2017–2018 in primiparas was from 7.97 (95% CI 7.95 to 7.99) to 7.80 (95% CI 7.77 to 7.83) and from 2014–2016 to 2017–2018 in multiparas from 8.60 (95% CI 8.58 to 8.61) to 8.49 (95% CI 8.47 to 8.52). Corresponding RRs of low VAS were 1.3 for primiparas and 1.2 for multiparas. Hourly differences in VAS were detected in primiparas between office hours 08:00–15:59 (7.97; 95% CI 7.94 to 7.99) and other times (night 00:00–07:59; 7.91; 95% CI 7.88 to 7.94; and evening 16:00–23:59; 7.90; 95% CI 7.87 to 7.92). In multiparas differences in VAS were detected between evening (8.52; 95% CI 8.50 to 8.54) and other periods (night; 8.56; 95% CI 8.54 to 9.58; and office hours; 8.57; 95% CI 8.55 to 8.59).ConclusionThe maternal childbirth experience depended on the time of delivery. Giving birth during the evening led to impaired childbirth experience in both primiparas and multiparas, compared with delivery at other times. The impact of labour induction on childbirth experience should be further examined. The reorganisation of delivery services and the reduction of birth preparations might affect annual VAS. VAS is a simple method of measuring the complex entity of childbirth experience, and our results indicate its ability to capture temporal variation.

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China in December 2019 and has become a pandemic that resulted in more than one million deaths and infected over 35 million people worldwide. In this study, a continent-wide analysis of COVID-19 cases from 31st December 2019 to 14th June 2020 was performed along with socio-economic factors associated with mortality rates as well as a predicted future scenario of COVID-19 cases until the end of 2020. Methods: Epidemiological and statistical tools such as linear regression, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were used in this study. Results: This study shows that the highest number of cases per million population was recorded in Europe, while the trend of new cases is lowest in Africa. The mortality rates in different continents were as follows: North America 4.57%, Europe 3.74%, South America 3.87%, Africa 3.49%, Oceania and Asia less than 2%. Linear regression analysis showed that hospital beds, GDP, diabetes, and higher average age were the significant risk factors for mortality in different continents. The forecasting analysis since the first case of COVID-19 until 1st January 2021 showed that the worst scenario at the end of 2020 predicts a range from 0 to 300,000 daily new cases and a range from 0 to 16,000 daily new deaths. Conclusion: Epidemiological and clinical features of COVID-19 should be better defined, since they can play an import role in future strategies to control this pandemic.

Background: To date, our understanding of the global aortic aneurysm (AA) burden distribution is very limited. Objective: To assess a full view of global AA burden distribution and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2017. Methods: We extracted data of AA deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), in general and by age/sex from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The current AA burden distribution in 2017 and its changing trend from 1990 to 2017 were separately showed. The spatial divergence was discussed from four levels: global, five social-demographic index regions, 21 GBD regions, and 195 countries and territories. We also estimated the risk factors attributable to AA related deaths. Results: Globally, the AA deaths were 167,249 with an age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of 2.19/100,000 persons in 2017, among which the elderly and the males accounted for the majority. Although reductions in ASRs were observed in developed areas, AA remained an important health issue in those relatively underdeveloped areas and might be much more important in the near future. AA may increasingly affect the elderly and the female population. Similar patterns of AA DALYs burden were noted during the study period. AA burden attributable to high blood pressure and smoking decreased globally and there were many heterogeneities in their distribution. Discussion: AA maintained an incremental public health issue worldwide. The change pattern of AA burden was heterogeneous across locations, ages, and sexes and it is paramount to improve resource allocation for more effective and targeted prevention strategies. Also, prevention of tobacco consumption and blood pressure control should be emphasized.

International audience; No abstract available

Background To explore the impact of quarantine measures on the cause of death. Methods We use time series analysis with the data from death cause surveillance database of Suzhou from January 2017 to December 2019 to estimate the expected deaths from January to June 2020 and compare these expected deaths with the reported numbers of deaths. Results After the implementation of epidemic prevention measures in Suzhou in the first 3 months, overall number of all-cause deaths declined for 5.36, 7.54 and 7.02% compared with predicted numbers. The number of deaths from respiratory causes and traffic accidents declined shapely by 30.1 and 26.9%, totally. When quarantine measures were released (April–June), however, the observed numbers of total deaths exceeded the predicted deaths. People aged over 70 accounted for 91.6% of declined death number in respiratory causes and people aged over 60 accounted for 68.0% of declined death number in traffic accidents. Women over the age of 80 benefited the most from respiratory prevention (accounts for 41% of all reductions), whereas women aged over 60 benefited the most from traffic control (44%). Conclusions Overall, the whole population benefited from the epidemic prevention measures especially elderly females. This study is a useful supplement to encourage the government to develop regular preventive measures under the era of normalized epidemic.

BackgroundTo inform researchers about the methodology and results of epidemic estimation studies performed for COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, we aimed to perform a rapid review.MethodsWe searched for and included published articles, preprint manuscripts and reports that estimated numbers of cumulative or daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 in Iran. We found 131 studies and included 29 of them.ResultsThe included studies provided outputs for a total of 84 study-model/scenario combinations. Sixteen studies used 3–4 compartmental disease models. At the end of month two of the epidemic (2020-04-19), the lowest (and highest) values of predictions were 1,777 (388,951) for cumulative deaths, 20,588 (2,310,161) for cumulative cases, and at the end of month four (2020-06-20), were 3,590 (1,819,392) for cumulative deaths, and 144,305 (4,266,964) for cumulative cases. Highest estimates of cumulative deaths (and cases) for latest date available in 2020 were 418,834 on 2020-12-19 (and 41,475,792 on 2020-12-31). Model estimates predict an ominous course of epidemic progress in Iran. Increase in percent population using masks from the current situation to 95% might prevent 26,790 additional deaths (95% confidence interval 19,925–35,208) by the end of year 2020.ConclusionsMeticulousness and degree of details reported for disease modeling and statistical methods used in the included studies varied widely. Greater heterogeneity was observed regarding the results of predicted outcomes. Consideration of minimum and preferred reporting items in epidemic estimation studies might better inform future revisions of the available models and new models to be developed. Not accounting for under-reporting drives the models’ results misleading.