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Official statistics in Australia and the United States show large recent increases in dementia mortality rates. In this study, we assessed whether these trends are biased by an increasing tendency of medical certifiers (predominantly physicians) to report on the death certificate that dementia was a direct cause of death. Regression models of multiple-cause-of-death data in Australia (2006–2016) and the United States (2006–2017) were constructed to adjust dementia mortality rates for changes in death certification practices. Compared with official statistics, the recent increase in adjusted age-standardized dementia death rates was less than half as large in Australia and about two-thirds as large in the United States. Further adjustment for changes in reporting of dementia anywhere on the death certificate implied even lower increases in dementia mortality. Declines in reporting of cardiovascular diseases as comorbid conditions also contributed to rises in dementia mortality rates. The increasing likelihood of dementia’s being reported as directly leading to death largely explains recent increases in dementia mortality rates in both countries. However, studies have found that reported dementia on death certificates remains low compared with clinical evaluations of its prevalence. Improved guidance and training for certifiers in reporting of dementia on death certificates will help standardize mortality statistics within and between countries.

Background Despite the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system in Nepal operating for several decades, it has not been used to produce routine mortality statistics. Instead, mortality statistics rely on irregular surveys and censuses that primarily focus on child mortality. To fill this knowledge gap, this study estimates levels and subnational differentials in mortality across all ages in Nepal, primarily using CRVS data adjusted for incompleteness. Methods We analyzed death registration data (offline or paper-based) and CRVS survey reported death data, estimating the true crude death rate (CDR) and number of deaths by sex and year for each province and ecological belt. The estimated true number of deaths for 2017 was used with an extension of the empirical completeness method to estimate the adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy at birth by sex and subnational level. Plausibility of subnational mortality estimates was assessed against poverty head count rates. Results Adult mortality in Nepal for 2017 is estimated to be 159 per 1000 for males and 116 for females, while life expectancy was estimated as 69.7 years for males and 73.9 years for females. Subnationally, male adult mortality ranges from 129 per 1000 in Madhesh to 224 in Karnali and female adult mortality from 89 per 1000 in Province 1 to 159 in Sudurpashchim. Similarly, male life expectancy is between 64.9 years in Karnali and 71.8 years in Madhesh and female male life expectancy between 69.6 years in Sudurpashchim and 77.0 years in Province 1. Mountain ecological belt and Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces have high mortality and high poverty levels, whereas Terai and Hill ecological belts and Province 1, Madhesh, and Bagmati and Gandaki provinces have low mortality and poverty levels. Conclusions This is the first use of CRVS system data in Nepal to estimate national and subnational mortality levels and differentials. The national results are plausible when compared with Global Burden of Disease and United Nations World Population Prospects estimates. Understanding of the reasons for inequalities in mortality in Nepal should focus on improving cause of death data and further strengthening CRVS data.

Background In India the number of registered deaths increased substantially in recent years, improving the potential of the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system to be the primary source of mortality data and providing more families of decedents with the benefits of possessing a death certificate. This study aims to identify whether inequalities in the completeness of death registration between states in India, including by sex, have narrowed during this period of CRVS system strengthening. Methods Data used in this study are registered deaths by state and year from 2000 to 2018 (and by sex from 2009 to 2018) reported in the Civil Registration Reports published by the Office of Registrar General of India. Completeness of death registration is calculated using the empirical completeness method. Levels and trends inequalities in completeness are measured in each state a socio-economic indicator – the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Results Estimated completeness of death registration in India increased from 58% in 2000 to 81% in 2018. Male completeness rose from 60% in 2009 to 85% in 2018 and was much higher than female completeness, which increased from 54 to 74% in the same period. Completeness remained very low in some states, particularly from the eastern (e.g. Bihar) and north-eastern regions. However, in states from the northern region (e.g. Uttar Pradesh) completeness increased significantly from a low level. There was a narrowing of inequalities in completeness according to the SDI during the period, however large inequalities between states remain. Conclusions The increase in completeness of death registration in India is a substantial achievement and increases the potential of the death registration system as a routine source of mortality data. Although narrowing of inequalities in completeness demonstrates that the benefits of higher levels of death registration have spread to relatively poorer states of India in recent years, the continued low completeness in some states and for females are concerning. The Indian CRVS system also needs to increase the number of registered deaths with age at death reported to improve their usability for mortality statistics.

Background In Bangladesh, a poorly functioning national system of registering deaths and determining their causes leaves the country without important information on which to inform health programming, particularly for the 85% of deaths that occur in the community. In 2017, an improved death registration system and automated verbal autopsy (VA) were introduced to 13 upazilas to assess the utility of VA as a routine source of policy-relevant information and to identify leading causes of deaths (COD) in rural Bangladesh. Methods Data from 22,535 VAs, collected in 12 upazilas between October 2017 and August 2019, were assigned a COD using the SmartVA Analyze 2.0 computer algorithm. The plausibility of the VA results was assessed using a series of demographic and epidemiological checks in the Verbal Autopsy Interpretation, Performance and Evaluation Resource (VIPER) software tool. Results Completeness of community death reporting was 65%. The vast majority (85%) of adult deaths were due to non-communicable diseases, with ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disease comprising about 60% alone. Leading COD were broadly consistent with Global Burden of Disease study estimates. Conclusions Routine VA collection using automated methods is feasible, can produce plausible results and provides critical information on community COD in Bangladesh. Routine VA and VIPER have potential application to countries with weak death registration systems.

Background The recent slowdown in life expectancy increase in Australia has occurred concurrently with widening socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality risk. We analysed whether, and to what extent, mortality inequalities among specific non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Australia at ages 35–74 years widened during 2006–16. Methods Registered deaths that occurred during 2006–16 in Australia were analysed. Inequalities were measured by area socioeconomic quintile [ranging from Q1 (lowest) to Q5 (highest)] and remoteness (major cities, inner regional, outer regional/remote/very remote). Age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for 35–74 years were calculated and smoothed over time. Results NCD mortality inequalities by area socioeconomic quintile widened; the ratio of Q1 to Q5 ASDR for males increased from 1.96 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91–2.01] in 2011 to 2.08 (2.03–2.13) in 2016, and for females from 1.78 (1.73–1.84) to 1.96 (1.90–2.02). Moreover, Q1 NCD ASDRs did not clearly decline from 2011 to 2016. CVD mortality inequalities were wider than for all NCDs. There were particularly large increases in smoking-related mortality inequalities. In 2016, mortality inequalities were especially high for chronic respiratory diseases, alcohol-related causes and diabetes. NCD mortality rates outside major cities were higher than within major cities, and these differences widened during 2006–16. Higher mortality rates in inner regional areas than in major cities were explained by socioeconomic factors. Conclusions Widening of inequalities in premature mortality rates is a major public health issue in Australia in the context of slowing mortality decline. Inequalities are partly explained by major risk factors for CVDs and NCDs: being overweight or obese, lack of exercise, poor diet and smoking. There is a need for urgent policy responses that consider socioeconomic disadvantage.

Background In Brazil, both the Civil Registry (CR) and Ministry of Health (MoH) Mortality Information System (SIM) are sources of routine mortality data, but neither is 100% complete. Deaths from these two sources can be linked to facilitate estimation of completeness of mortality reporting and measurement of adjusted mortality indicators using generalized linear modeling (GLM). Methods The 2015 and 2016 CR and SIM data were linked using deterministic methods. GLM with covariates of the deceased’s sex, age, state of residence, cause of death and place of death, and municipality-level education decile and population density decile, was used to estimate total deaths and completeness nationally, subnationally and by population sub-group, and to identify the characteristics of unreported deaths. The empirical completeness method and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates were comparators at the national and state level. Results Completeness was 98% for SIM and 95% for CR. The vast majority of deaths in Brazil were captured by either system and 94% were reported by both sources. For each source, completeness was lowest in the north. SIM completeness was consistently high across all sub-groups while CR completeness was lowest for deaths at younger ages, outside facilities, and in the lowest deciles of municipality education and population density. There was no clear municipality-level relationship in SIM and CR completeness, suggesting minimal dependence between sources. The empirical completeness method model 1 and GBD completeness estimates were each, on average, less than three percentage points different from GLM estimates at the state level. Life expectancy was lowest in the northeast and 7.5 years higher in females than males. Conclusions GLM using socio-economic and demographic covariates is a valuable tool to accurately estimate completeness from linked data sources. Close scrutiny of the quality of variables used to link deaths, targeted identification of unreported deaths in poorer, northern states, and closer coordination of the two systems will help Brazil achieve 100% death reporting completeness. The results also confirm the validity of the empirical completeness method.

Background Death registration completeness has never been assessed at the county level in China. Such analyses would provide critical intelligence to monitor the performance of the vital registration system and yield adjustment factors to correct death registration data, thereby increasing their policy utility. Methods We estimated the completeness of death registration for 31 provinces and 2844 counties of China in 2018 based on death data from the China Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) by using the empirical completeness method. We computed the root mean square difference (RMSD) of county-level completeness compared with provincial-level completeness to study intra-provincial variations. A two-level (province and county) logistic regression model was fitted to explore the association between county-level registration completeness and a set of covariates reflecting socioeconomic status, healthcare quality, and specific strategies and regulations designed to improve registration. Results In 2018, the overall death registration completeness for the CDRS in China was 74.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 66.2–80.4), with very little difference for males and females. Geographical differences in completeness were higher across counties than across provinces. The county-level completeness ranged from 2.4% (95% UI 1.0–5.0%) in Burang County, Tibet, to 100.0% (95% UI 99.9–100.0%) in Guandu District, Yunnan. The coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Fujian, with higher overall completeness, contained counties with low completeness; conversely, the underdeveloped provinces of Guangxi and Guizhou, with lower overall completeness, included some counties with high completeness. GDP, education, population density, minority population, healthcare access, and registration strategies were important drivers of the geographical differences in registration completeness. Conclusions There are marked inequalities in registration completeness at the county level and within provinces in China. The socioeconomic condition, the implementation of specific registration-enhancing initiatives, and the availability and quality of medical care were the primary drivers of the observed geographical variation. A more strategic approach, with more research, is required to identify the main reasons for death under-reporting, especially in the poorer performing counties, to guide remedial action.

Background Reliable cause of death (COD) data are not available for the majority of deaths in Papua New Guinea (PNG), despite their critical policy value. Automated verbal autopsy (VA) methods, involving an interview and automated analysis to diagnose causes of community deaths, have recently been trialled in PNG. Here, we report VA results from three sites and highlight the utility of these methods to generate information about the leading CODs in the country. Methods VA methods were introduced in one district in each of three provinces: Alotau in Milne Bay; Tambul-Nebilyer in Western Highlands; and Talasea in West New Britain. VA interviews were conducted using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened questionnaire and analysed using the SmartVA automated diagnostic algorithm. Results A total of 1655 VAs were collected between June 2018 and November 2019, 87.0% of which related to deaths at age 12 years and over. Our findings suggest a continuing high proportion of deaths due to infectious diseases (27.0%) and a lower proportion of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (50.8%) than estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017: 16.5% infectious diseases and 70.5% NCDs. The proportion of injury deaths was also high compared with GBD: 22.5% versus 13.0%. Conclusions Health policy in PNG needs to address a ‘triple burden’ of high infectious mortality, rising NCDs and a high fraction of deaths due to injuries. This study demonstrates the potential of automated VA methods to generate timely, reliable and policy-relevant data on COD patterns in hard-to-reach populations in PNG.

Approximately 30% of deaths in Shanghai either occur at home or are not medically attended. The recorded cause of death (COD) in these cases may not be reliable. We applied the Smart Verbal Autopsy (VA) tool to assign the COD for a representative sample of home deaths certified by 16 community health centers (CHCs) from three districts in Shanghai, from December 2017 to June 2018. The results were compared with diagnoses from routine practice to ascertain the added value of using SmartVA. Overall, cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy improved from 0.93 (93%) to 0.96 after the application of SmartVA. A comparison with a “gold standard (GS)” diagnoses obtained from a parallel medical record review investigation found that 86.3% of the initial diagnoses made by the CHCs were assigned the correct COD, increasing to 90.5% after the application of SmartVA. We conclude that routine application of SmartVA is not indicated for general use in CHCs, although the tool did improve diagnostic accuracy for residual causes, such as other or ill-defined cancers and non-communicable diseases.

ObjectivesAccurate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems are the primary data source to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality. This study assesses how the pandemic impacted CRVS system processes in Loreto region of Peru, one of the worst affected countries globally.DesignQualitative study.SettingLoreto, a remote region, which had the highest reported mortality rate in Peru during the pandemic.ParticipantsSemistructured individual interviews and documentary analysis were conducted between September 2020 and May 2021 with 28 key informants from eight institutions involved in death certification. Key informants were identified using a purposive sampling strategy commencing at the Health Directorate of Loreto, and the snowball method was used where a participant suggested another organisation or person. Information from key informants was used to compare business process maps of the CRVS system before and during the pandemic.ResultsDuring early May 2020, there were seven times more registered deaths than in earlier years, but key informants believed this underestimated mortality by 20%–30%. During the pandemic, families had to interact with more institutions during the death certification process. Several issues disrupted death certification processes, including the burden of increased deaths, the Environmental Health Directorate often removing a body without the family’s express agreement, the creation of COVID-19 cemeteries where no death certificate was needed for burial, greater participation of funeral homes that often used outdated paper forms, and closure of civil registry offices. There was increased use of the online National Death System (SINADEF) but many users had problems with access.ConclusionsThe pandemic substantially disrupted CRVS processes in Loreto, making death certification more difficult, placing greater burden on the family and leading to more participation from unregulated organisations such as funeral homes or cemeteries. These disruptions were impacted by limitations of the CRVS system’s processes before the pandemic.

IntroductionRecent studies suggest that more male than female deaths are registered and a higher proportion of female deaths are certified as ‘garbage’ causes (ie, vague or ill-defined causes of limited policy value). This can reduce the utility of sex-specific mortality statistics for governments to address health problems. To assess whether there are sex differences in completeness and quality of data from civil registration and vital statistics systems, we analysed available global death registration and cause of death data.MethodsCompleteness of death registration for females and males was compared in 112 countries, and in subsets of countries with incomplete death registration. For 64 countries with medical certificate of cause of death data, the level, severity and type of garbage causes was compared between females and males, standardised for the older age distribution and different cause composition of female compared with male deaths.ResultsFor 42 countries with completeness of less than 95% (both sexes), average female completeness was 1.2 percentage points (p.p.) lower (95% uncertainty interval (UI) −2.5 to –0.2 p.p.) than for males. Aggregate female completeness for these countries was 7.1 p.p. lower (95% UI −12.2 to −2.0 p.p.; female 72.9%, male 80.1%), due to much higher male completeness in nine countries including India. Garbage causes were higher for females than males in 58 of 64 countries (statistically significant in 48 countries), but only by an average 1.4 p.p. (1.3–1.6 p.p.); results were consistent by severity and type of garbage.ConclusionAlthough in most countries analysed there was no clear bias against females in death registration, there was clear evidence in a few countries of systematic undercounting of female deaths which substantially reduces the utility of mortality data. In countries with cause of death data, it was only of marginally poorer quality for females than males.

Background Reliable and timely mortality data from a civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system are of crucial importance for generating evidence for policy and monitoring the progress towards national and global development goals. In Nepal, however, the death registration system is not used to produce mortality statistics, because it does not providing data on age at death and only reporting deaths by year of registration. This study assesses the completeness of death registration in Nepal – both the existing offline system and the newer online system – as well as the completeness of death reporting from a CRVS Survey, and assesses differences by year, sex, ecological belt, and province. Methods The empirical completeness method is used to estimate completeness at all ages from the offline (paper-based) registration system (2013-17), the online registration system (2017-19) and the CRVS Survey (2014-15). Results Completeness of the offline death registration system was 69% in 2017, not increasing since 2013 and being higher for males (73%) than females (65%). Completeness of online registration was only 32% in 2019, but almost double the 2017 figure. Completeness of death reporting in the CRVS Survey was 75% in 2015. The largest subnational differentials in completeness exist for the offline registration system, ranging from 90% in Gandaki to just 39% in Karnali. Conclusions Improvement in the utility of the Nepalese death registration system for mortality statistics is dependent on continued roll-out of the online death registration system (which reports age at death and deaths by year of occurrence) throughout the country, focusing on areas with low registration, building a strong coordination mechanism among CRVS stakeholders and implementing public awareness programs about death registration.

Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death.A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction.Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations.Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method.CRD42020186886.

Background The study aims to assess two approaches that apply the empirical completeness method to generate age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration systems. Methods We use the empirical completeness method to calculate all-age death registration completeness, which is used with a model life table to generate mortality statistics and age-specific completeness using (1) the conventional method and (2) the equivalent deaths method. The results are compared with a capture-recapture (C-RC) study and three alternative mortality estimates for Brazilian states, and C-RC studies in Thailand, Oman and Vietnam, which independently estimate the level and age pattern of mortality or completeness. Results The empirical completeness method produces similar estimates of all-age completeness of registration to the C-RC studies. Compared with C-RC studies, at 15-59 years, the conventional method’s estimates of mortality and completeness are more concordant, while at 60-84 years the equivalent death method’s estimates are closer. Estimates of life expectancy from the two approaches each have similar concordance with the C-RC studies. For male adult mortality in Brazilian states, there is relatively strong average correlation of this study's estimates with three alternative estimates. Conclusions The two approaches produce mortality statistics from incomplete data that are mostly concordant with C-RC studies, and can be most usefully applied to subnational populations.

Objectives To compare life expectancy at birth in Australia during 1980-2016 with that in other high income countries; to estimate the contributions of age at death and cause of death to differences between Australia and these countries. Design, setting, participants Data on deaths by age, sex, and cause in Australia and 26 other high income countries obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. Main outcome measures Contributions of age, cause of death, and birth cohort to differences in life expectancy between Australia and other high income countries and to changes in the differences. Results From 1981 to 2003, life expectancy at birth increased rapidly in Australia, both in absolute terms and in comparison with other high income countries. The main contributor to greater increases for males in Australia than in western Europe was lower mortality from ischaemic heart disease; compared with the United States, mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and transport-related injuries was lower. Since 2003, life expectancy has increased more slowly for both sexes than in most other high income countries, mainly because declines in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer have slowed. Age-specific mortality for people born since the 1970s is higher in Australia than in most high income countries. Conclusions Recent declines in mortality in Australia have been relatively modest. Together with the high prevalence of obesity and the limited scope for further increasing life expectancy by reducing the prevalence of smoking, this suggests that future life expectancy increases will be smaller than in other high income countries. Improved control of health risk factors will be required if further substantial life expectancy increases in Australia are to be achieved.

BackgroundThe widely-used estimates of completeness of birth registration collected by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and published by UNICEF primarily rely on registration status of children as reported by respondents. However, these self-reported estimates may be inaccurate when compared with completeness as assessed from nationally-reported official birth registration statistics, for several reasons, including over-reporting of registration due to concern about penalties for non-registration. This study assesses the concordance of self-reported birth registration and certification completeness with completeness calculated from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems data for 57 countries.MethodsSelf-reported estimates of birth registration and certification completeness, at ages less than five years and 12–23 months, were compiled and calculated from the UNICEF birth registration database, DHS and MICS. CRVS birth registration completeness was calculated as birth registrations reported by a national authority divided by estimates of live births published in the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects or the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Summary measures of concordance were used to compare completeness estimates.FindingsBirth registration completeness (based on ages less than five years) calculated from self-reported data is higher than that estimated from CRVS data in most of the 57 countries (31 countries according to UN estimated births, average six percentage points (p.p.) higher; 43 countries according to GBD, average eight p.p. higher). For countries with CRVS completeness less than 95%, self-reported completeness was higher in 26 of 28 countries, an average 13 p.p. and median 9–10 p.p. higher. Self-reported completeness is at least 30 p.p. higher than CRVS completeness in three countries. Self-reported birth certification completeness exhibits closer concordance with CRVS completeness. Similar results are found for self-reported completeness at 12–23 months.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that self-reported completeness figures over-estimate completeness when compared with CRVS data, especially at lower levels of completeness, partly due to over-reporting of registration by respondents. Estimates published by UNICEF should be viewed cautiously, especially given their wide usage.

This article aims to analyze the association between characteristics of death - type of certifier and place of death - and the odds of an external cause death being certified as unspecified in Brazil. Cross-sectional study of deaths due to external causes from the Mortality Information System, 2017. Unspecified external cause (UEC) is the outcome variable in the models. Type of certifier physician, place of death and the interaction of these variables were the explanatory variables. Confounders were controlled by multiple logistic regression. UEC were the initial underlying cause for 22% of the 159,720 deaths from external causes in Brazil and 31% of hospital deaths issued by coroners. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of UEC in a hospital death certified by a coroner was 98% greater (OR=1.98; 95%CI: 1.53; 2.56) than in a home/street death issued by another certifier. This was greater than the odds for certifications by coroners (OR=1.23; 95%CI: 1.14; 1.33) and hospital deaths (OR=1.44; 95%CI: 1.32; 1.58). External causes certified by coroners and/or occurring in hospitals have a higher presence of UEC than other deaths; and indicate the need for coordinated initiatives by the health and public security sectors. Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a associação entre características do óbito - tipo de certificador e local do óbito - e a chance de um óbito por causa externa ser certificado como inespecífico no Brasil. Estudo transversal com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade de 2017. Causa externa inespecífica (CEI) é a variável desfecho nos modelos. As exposições de interesse foram tipo de médico certificador, local do óbito e a interação destas variáveis. Variáveis confundidoras foram controladas por regressão logística múltipla. As CEI foram a causa básica inicial de 22% dos 159,7 mil óbitos por causas externas no Brasil e 31% dos óbitos hospitalares emitidos por médicos-legistas. Após ajuste para confundidores, a chance de CEI em um óbito hospitalar certificado por legista foi 98% maior (OR=1,98; IC95%: 1,53; 2,56) do que em um óbito domiciliares/via pública emitido por outro certificador. Esta foi maior do que as chances para certificação por legista (OR=1,23; IC95%: 1,14; 1,33) e óbito hospitalar (OR=1,44; IC95%: 1,32; 1,58). As causas externas certificadas por médicos-legistas e/ou ocorridas em hospitais têm maior presença de CEI do que outras mortes; e indicam a necessidade de iniciativas coordenadas dos setores da saúde e segurança pública.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases., Central Illustration, Highlights • The burden of CVD, in number of DALYs and deaths, continues to increase globally. • CVD burden attributable to modifiable risk factors continues to increase globally. • Countries should invest in existing cost-effective public health programs and clinical interventions to target modifiable risks, promote healthy aging across the lifespan, and reduce disability and premature death due to CVD.

Background In recent years, there have been adverse trends in premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates (35–74 years) in the USA and Australia. Following long-term declines, rates in the USA are now increasing while falls in Australia have slowed rapidly. These two countries also have the highest adult obesity prevalence of high-income countries. This study investigates the role of overweight and obesity in their recent CVD mortality trends by using multiple cause of death (MCOD) data—direct individual-level evidence from death certificates—and linking the findings to cohort lifetime obesity prevalence. Methods We identified overweight- and obesity-related mortality as any CVD reported on the death certificate (CVD MCOD) with one or more of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, obesity, lipidemias or hypertensive heart disease (DKOLH-CVD), causes strongly associated with overweight and obesity. DKOLH-CVD comprises 50% of US and 40% of Australian CVD MCOD mortality. Trends in premature age-standardized death rates were compared between DKOLH-CVD and other CVD MCOD deaths (non-DKOLH-CVD). Deaths from 2000 to 2017 in the USA and 2006–2016 in Australia were analyzed. Trends in in age-specific DKOLH-CVD death rates were related to cohort relative lifetime obesity prevalence. Results Each country’s DKOLH-CVD mortality rate rose by 3% per annum in the most recent year, but previous declines had reversed more rapidly in Australia. Non-DKOLH-CVD mortality in the USA increased in 2017 after declining strongly in the early 2000s, but in Australia it has continued declining in stark contrast to DKOLH-CVD. There were larger increases in DKOLH-CVD mortality rates at successively younger ages, strongly related with higher relative lifetime obesity prevalence in younger cohorts. Conclusions The increase in DKOLH-CVD mortality in each country suggests that overweight and obesity has likely been a key driver of the recent slowdown or reversal of CVD mortality decline in both countries. The larger recent increases in DKOLH-CVD mortality and higher lifetime obesity prevalence in younger age groups are very concerning and are likely to adversely impact CVD mortality trends and hence life expectancy in future. MCOD data is a valuable but underutilized source of data to track important mortality trends.

Background and objectiveMany countries have used the new ANACONDA (Analysis of Causes of National Death for Action) tool to assess the quality of their cause of death data (COD), but no cross-country analysis has been done to verify how different or similar patterns of diagnostic errors and data quality are in countries or how they are related to the local cultural or epidemiological environment or to levels of development. Our objective is to measure whether the usability of COD data and the patterns of unusable codes are related to a country's level of socio-economic development.MethodsWe have assessed the quality of 20 national COD datasets from the WHO Mortality Database by assessing their completeness of COD reporting and the extent, pattern and severity of garbage codes, i.e. codes that provide little or no information about the true underlying COD. Garbage codes were classified into four groups based on the severity of the error in the code. The Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) was used to measure the overall quality of each country's mortality surveillance system.FindingsThe proportion of 'garbage codes' varied from 7 to 66% across the 20 countries. Countries with a high SDI generally had a lower proportion of high impact (i.e. more severe) garbage codes than countries with low SDI. While the magnitude and pattern of garbage codes differed among countries, the specific codes commonly used did not.ConclusionsThere is an inverse relationship between a country's socio-demographic development and the overall quality of its cause of death data, but with important exceptions. In particular, some low SDI countries have vital statistics systems that are as reliable as more developed countries. However, in low-income countries, where most people die at home, the proportion of unusable codes often exceeds 50%, implying that half of all cause-specific mortality data collected is of little or no use in guiding public policy. Moreover, the cause of death pattern identified from the data is likely to seriously under-represent the true extent of the leading causes of death in the population, with very significant consequences for health priority setting. Garbage codes are prevalent at all ages, contrary to expectations. Further research into effective strategies deployed in these countries to improve data quality can inform efforts elsewhere to improve COD reporting systems.

Background Improving civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems requires strengthening the capacity of the CRVS workforce. The improvement of data collection and diagnostic practices must be accompanied by efforts to ensure that the workforce has the skills and knowledge to assess the quality of, and analyse, CRVS data using demographic and epidemiological techniques. While longer-term measures to improve data collection practices must continue to be implemented, it is important to build capacity in the cautious use of imperfect data. However, a lack of training programmes, guidelines and tools make capacity shortages a common issue in CRVS systems. As such, any strategy to build capacity should be underpinned by (1) a repository of knowledge and body of evidence on CRVS, and (2) targeted strategies to train the CRVS workforce. Main text During the 4 years of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne, an extensive repository of knowledge and practical tools to support CRVS system improvements was developed for use by various audiences and stakeholders (the ‘CRVS Knowledge Gateway’). Complementing this has been a targeted strategy to build CRVS capacity in countries that comprised two approaches – in-country or regional training and a visiting Fellowship Program. These approaches address the need to build competence in countries to collect, analyse and effectively use good quality birth and death data, and a longer-term need to ensure that local staff in countries possess the comprehensive knowledge of CRVS strategies and practices necessary to ensure sustainable CRVS development. Conclusion The Knowledge Gateway is a dynamic, useful and long-lasting repository of CRVS knowledge for countries and development partners to use to formulate and evaluate CRVS development strategies. Capacity-building through in-country or regional training and the University of Melbourne D4H Fellowship Program will ensure that CRVS capacity and knowledge is developed and maintained, facilitating improvements in CRVS data systems that can be used by policymakers to support better decision-making in health.

BACKGROUND; : In Tanzania only an estimated one-quarter of births are registered and certified. Birth registration uses a centralized system with geographic and cost barriers for families. A pilot decentralized birth registration system has been trialled in 11 of 26 regions, substantially increasing registration points, and enabling notification, registration and certification to occur in one step. OBJECTIVE: This study compares completeness of birth registration and certification and achievement of key birth registration milestones in two districts where the birth registration system decentralized and two districts with the existing centralized system.; METHODS; : Registration, notification, census and survey data were used to estimate birth registration completeness and quantify achievement of key registration milestones for births in 2012-16. These were compared between districts of Mbozi (decentralized in 2013) and Iringa (decentralized in 2016) and districts of Dodoma and Kibaha which remained centralized.; RESULTS; : For births that occurred from 2012 to 2016, completeness of birth registration/certification (by early 2017) was higher in districts that decentralized (Iringa 60%; Mbozi 52%) than remained centralized (Kibaha 36%; Dodoma 20%). Introduction of the decentralized system saw completeness for births registered within 12 months of occurrence increase in Iringa from 1% in 2014 to 67% in 2016, and in Mbozi from 15% in 2012 to 36% in 2013 before falling and subsequently increasing to 53% in 2016. In contrast, completeness in centralized districts did not increase. Although a higher proportion of births are notified in centralized than decentralized districts, registration and certification occurs for all notified births in decentralized districts but only one-third in centralized districts.; CONCLUSIONS; : Benefits of a decentralized system are more proximate registration points and the merging of notification, registration and certification steps. The findings, while demonstrating the immediate impact of the decentralized system on completeness, also show that continued efforts are necessary to sustain these improvements.

Objectives: To assess the policy utility of national cause of death (COD) data of six high-income countries with highly developed health information systems. Methods: National COD data sets from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan and Switzerland for 2015 or 2016 were assessed by applying the ANACONDA software tool. Levels, patterns and distributions of unusable and insufficiently specified “garbage” codes were analysed. Results: The average proportion of unusable COD was 18% across the six countries, ranging from 14% in Australia and Canada to 25% in Japan. Insufficiently specified codes accounted for a further 8% of deaths, on average, varying from 6% in Switzerland to 11% in Japan. The most commonly used garbage codes were Other ill-defined and unspecified deaths (R99), Heart failure (I50.9) and Senility (R54). Conclusions: COD certification errors are common, even in countries with very advanced health information systems, greatly reducing the policy value of mortality data. All countries should routinely provide certification training for hospital interns and raise awareness among doctors of their public health responsibility to certify deaths correctly and usefully for public health policy.

Life expectancy is most commonly measured for a period (corresponding to mortality within a given year) or for a specific birth cohort. Although widely used, period and cohort life expectancy have limitations as their time-trends often show disparities and can mask the historical mortality experience of all cohorts present at a given time. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life, or TCAL, is a period measure including all available cohort mortality information, irrespective of whether all cohort members have died. It is particularly useful for comparing cohort mortality between populations. This study extends TCAL by disentangling causes of death contributions. The strength of the approach is that it allows identification of mortality differences in cohorts with members still alive, as well as identification of which ages and causes of death contribute to mortality differentials between populations. Application of the method to Japan shows that over the period 1950–2014 a major contributor to TCAL differences with other high-longevity countries was its lower cardiovascular disease mortality.

Background Deaths in developing countries often occur outside health facilities, making it extremely difficult to gather reliable cause of death (COD) information. Automated COD assignment using a verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) has been proposed as a reliable and cost-effective alternative to traditional physician-certified verbal autopsy, but its performance is still being evaluated. The purpose of this study was to compare the similarity of diagnosis by Medical Assistants (MA) in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with the SmartVA Analyze 1.2 (Tariff 2.0) diagnosis. Methods This study took place between January 2011 and April 2014 in Matlab, Bangladesh. MA with 3 years of medical training assigned COD to Matlab residents by reviewing the information collected using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) long-form VAI. Smart VA Analyze 1.2 automatically assigned COD using the same questionnaire. COD agreement and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were compared for MA and Tariff. Results Of the 4969 verbal autopsy cases reviewed, 4328 were adults, 296 were children, and 345 were neonates. Cohen’s kappa was 0.38 (0.36, 0.40) for adults, 0.43 (0.38, 0.49) for children, and 0.27 (0.22, 0.33) for neonates. For adults, the top two COD for MA were stroke (29.6%) and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (14.2%) and for Tariff these were stroke (32.0%) and IHD (14.0%). For children, the top two COD for MA were drowning (33.5%) and pneumonia (13.2%) and for Tariff these were also drowning (36.8%) and pneumonia (12.4%). For neonates, the top two COD for MA were birth asphyxia (41.2%) and meningitis/sepsis (22.3%) and for Tariff these were birth asphyxia (37.0%) and preterm delivery (30.9%). Conclusion The CSMFs for Tariff and MA showed very close agreement across all age categories but some differences were observed for neonate preterm delivery and meningitis/sepsis. Given the known advantages of automated methods over physician certified verbal autopsy, the SmartVA software, incorporating the shortened VAI questionnaire and Tariff 2.0, could serve as a cost-effective alternative to Matlab MA to routinely collect and analyze verbal autopsy data in a HDSS to generate essential population level COD data for planning. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0169-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Correct certification of cause of death by physicians (i.e. completing the medical certificate of cause of death or MCCOD) and correct coding according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD) rules are essential to produce quality mortality statistics to inform health policy. Despite clear guidelines, errors in medical certification are common. This study objectively measures the impact of different medical certification errors upon the selection of the underlying cause of death. Methods A sample of 1592 error-free MCCODs were selected from the 2017 United States multiple cause of death data. The ten most common types of errors in completing the MCCOD (according to published studies) were individually simulated on the error-free MCCODs. After each simulation, the MCCODs were coded using Iris automated mortality coding software. Chance-corrected concordance (CCC) was used to measure the impact of certification errors on the underlying cause of death. Weights for each error type and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) group (representing different mortality conditions) were calculated from the CCC and categorised (very high, high, medium and low) to describe their effect on cause of death accuracy. Findings The only very high impact error type was reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death. High impact errors were found to be reporting competing causes in Part 1 [of the death certificate] and illegibility, with medium impact errors being reporting underlying cause in Part 2 [of the death certificate], incorrect or absent time intervals and reporting contributory causes in Part 1, and low impact errors comprising multiple causes per line and incorrect sequence. There was only small difference in error importance between SDI groups. Conclusions Reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death can seriously affect the coding outcome, while other certification errors were mitigated through the correct application of mortality coding rules. Training of physicians in not reporting ill-defined conditions on the MCCOD and mortality coders in correct coding practices and using Iris should be important components of national strategies to improve cause of death data quality.

Introduction: Reliable cause-of-death statistics are an important source of information on trends and differentials in population health. In Brazil, the Mortality Information System is responsible for compiling cause of death (CoD) data. Despite the success in reducing R-codes ill-defined causes of death, other garbage codes (GC), classified as causes that cannot be the underlying CoD, according to the Global Burden of Disease study, remain a challenge. The Ministry of Health (MoH) aims to decrease the proportion of all GCs, and a pilot study tested a comprehensive strategy to investigate GC deaths that occurred in 2015. Methods: The research was conducted in seven Brazilian cities during five months in 2016: two rural cities, one metropolitan area, and four capitals. For all GCs selected, municipal healthcare workers collected information about the terminal disease from hospital records, autopsies, family health teams, and home investigation. The fieldwork was coordinated at Federal level in partnership with State and municipal teams. Results: Out of 1,242 deaths selected, physicians analyzed the information collected and certified the CoD in 1,055 deaths, resulting in 92.6% of cases having their underlying cause changed to a usable ICD-10 code. Discussion: It is noteworthy the capacity the health teams in the seven cities showed during the implementation of the pilot. Conclusion: After results analysis, the GC investigation protocol was modified, and the implementation scaled up to 60 cities in 2017. RESUMO Introdução: Estatísticas confiáveis em mortalidade são importante fonte de evidências de tendências e diferenciais na saúde da população. No Brasil, o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade é responsável por compilar dados da causa de morte (CM). Embora tenha havido sucesso na redução de causas mal definidas de morte, ainda há um problema com outros códigos garbage (GC), classificados como causas de morte que não devem ser registradas como básicas, segundo o estudo de Carga Global de Doença. O Ministério da Saúde estabeleceu uma meta para diminuir a proporção de todos os GC e testou em estudo piloto uma estratégia abrangente para investigar as mortes. Métodos: A pesquisa foi realizada em 7 cidades do Brasil durante 4 meses: 2 em áreas rurais, 1 em área metropolitana e 4 em capitais. Os agentes municipais de saúde coletaram informações sobre a doença terminal obtida nos registros hospitalares, autópsias, equipes de saúde da família e investigação domiciliar. O trabalho de campo foi coordenado pelo nível federal, juntamente com as equipes estaduais e municipais. Resultados: Dos 1.242 óbitos selecionados, médicos analisaram as informações coletadas e certificaram a CM em 1.055 óbitos, resultando em 92,6% dos casos tendo sua causa subjacente alterada para código específico da CID-10. Discussão: Destaca-se a capacidade de articulação que as equipes de saúde apresentaram no cumprimento das etapas propostas para o trabalho. Conclusão: Após o estudo piloto, o protocolo de investigação foi modificado e sua implementação foi ampliada para 60 cidades em 2017.

Background Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a diverse country with high mortality and evidence of increased prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but there is no reliable cause of death (COD) data because civil registration is insufficient and routine health data comprise only a small proportion of deaths. This study aims to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for five broad groups of causes (endemic infections, emerging infections, endemic NCDs, emerging NCDs and injuries), by sex for each of PNG’s provinces. Methods CSMFs are calculated as the average of estimates obtained from: (1) Empirical cause method: Utilising available Verbal Autopsy (VA) data and Discharge Health Information System (DHIS) data, and applying statistical models of community versus facility CODs; and (2) Expected cause patterns method: Utilising existing estimates of mortality levels in each province and statistical models of the relationship between all-cause and cause-specific mortality using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. Results An estimated 41% of male and 49% of female deaths in PNG are due to infectious, maternal (female only), neonatal and nutritional causes. Furthermore, 45% of male and 42% of female deaths arise from NCDs. Infectious diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions account for more than half the deaths in a number of provinces, including lower socioeconomic status provinces of Gulf and Sandaun, while provinces with higher CSMFs from emerging NCDs (e.g. ischemic heart disease, stroke) tend to be those where socioeconomic status is comparatively high (e.g. National Capital District, Western Highlands Province, Manus Province, New Ireland Province and East New Britain Province). Provinces with the highest estimated proportion of deaths from emerging infectious diseases are readily accessible by road and have the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), while provinces with the highest CSMFs from endemic infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes are geographically isolated, have high malaria and high all-cause mortality. Conclusions Infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes continue to be an important COD in PNG, and are likely to be higher than what is estimated by the GBD. Nonetheless, there is evidence of the emergence of NCDs in provinces with higher socioeconomic status. The introduction of routine VA for non-facility deaths should improve COD data quality to support health policy and planning to control both infectious and NCDs.

Background The substantial decline in cardiovascular-disease (CVD) mortality in high-income countries has underpinned their increasing longevity over the past half-century. However, recent evidence suggests this long-term decline may have stagnated, and even reversed in younger populations. We assess recent CVD-mortality trends in high-income populations and discuss the findings in relation to trends in risk factors. Methods We used vital statistics since 2000 for 23 high-income countries published in the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized CVD death rates by sex for all ages, and at ages 35–74 years, were calculated and smoothed using LOWESS regression. Findings were contrasted with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Results The rate of decline in CVD mortality has slowed considerably in most countries in recent years for both males and females, particularly at ages 35–74 years. Based on the latest year of data, the decline in the CVD-mortality rate at ages 35–74 years was Conclusions A significant slowdown in CVD-mortality decline is now apparent across high-income countries with diverse epidemiological environments. High and increasing obesity levels, limited potential future gains from further reducing already low smoking prevalence, especially in English-speaking countries, and persistent inequalities in mortality risk pose significant challenges for public policy to promote better cardiovascular health.

Background Mortality statistics derived from cause of death data are an important source of information for population health monitoring, priority setting and planning. In Perú, almost all death certificates are issued by doctors because it is a legal requirement. However, the quality of cause of death data is poor. In August 2016, the Ministry of Health of Perú decided to make two specific interventions to improve cause of death data: to introduce an online death certification system and to train doctors in standard death certification practices. Methods The study comprised a random sample of 300 pre-intervention death certificates, 900 death certificates that were part of the online intervention, and 900 death certificates that were part of both the online and training interventions. All the deaths had occurred between January and September 2017. We used the Assessing the quality of death certification tool from the University of Melbourne for the assessment. We examined the frequency of common errors in death certificates, the frequency of any error and the average error score for each category of: age group, sex, doctor’s seniority, doctor’s speciality, level of health facility and broad cause of death. Results The average error score declined by 38% due to the online intervention and by a further 26% due to the training intervention. Improved certification practices remained after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Main improvements were reductions in the absence of a time interval (66% of certificates), incorrect sequence of causes (22%), and ill-defined conditions (13%). Conclusions This study demonstrates how the two interventions introduced by the Ministry of Health in Perú improved the correctness of death certificates. The study also provides evidence on necessary changes to the training program to address the poor certification practices that have remained after implementation of the online system. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6264-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background The registration and certification of births has a wide array of individual and societal benefits. While near-universal in some parts of the world, birth registration is less common in many low- and middle-income countries, and the quality of vital statistics vary. We assembled publicly available birth registration records for as many countries as possible into a novel global birth registration database, and we present a systematic assessment of available data. Methods We obtained 4918 country-years of data from 145 countries covering the period 1948–2015. We compared these to existing estimates of total births to assess completeness of public data and adapted existing methods to evaluate the quality and timeliness of the data. Results Since 1980, approximately one billion births were registered and shared in public databases. Compared to estimates of fertility, this represents only 40.0% of total births in the peak year, 2011. Approximately 74 million births (53.1%) per year occur in countries whose systems do not systematically register them and release the aggregate records. Considering data quality, timeliness, and completeness in country-years where data are available, only about 12 million births per year (8.6%) occur in countries with high-performing registration systems. Conclusions This analysis highlights the gaps in available data. Our objective and low-cost approach to assessing the performance of birth registration systems can be helpful to monitor country progress, and to help national and international policymakers set targets for strengthening birth registration systems. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0180-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

IntroductionThe measurement of progress towards many Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and other health goals requires accurate and timely all-cause and cause of death (COD) data. However, existing guidance to countries to calculate these indicators is inadequate for populations with incomplete death registration and poor-quality COD data. We introduce a replicable method to estimate national and subnational cause-specific mortality rates (and hence many such indicators) where death registration is incomplete by integrating data from Medical Certificates of Cause of Death (MCCOD) for hospital deaths with routine verbal autopsy (VA) for community deaths.MethodsThe integration method calculates population-level cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) from the CSMFs of MCCODs and VAs weighted by estimated deaths in hospitals and the community. Estimated deaths are calculated by applying the empirical completeness method to incomplete death registration/reporting. The resultant cause-specific mortality rates are used to estimate SDG Indicator 23: mortality between ages 30 and 70 years from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. We demonstrate the method using nationally representative data in Myanmar, comprising over 42 000 VAs and 7600 MCCODs.ResultsIn Myanmar in 2019, 89% of deaths were estimated to occur in the community. VAs comprised an estimated 70% of community deaths. Both the proportion of deaths in the community and CSMFs for the four causes increased with older age. We estimated that the probability of dying from any of the four causes between 30 and 70 years was 0.265 for men and 0.216 for women. This indicator is 50% higher if based on CSMFs from the integration of data sources than on MCCOD data from hospitals.ConclusionThis integration method facilitates country authorities to use their data to monitor progress with national and subnational health goals, rather than rely on estimates made by external organisations. The method is particularly relevant given the increasing application of routine VA in country Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems.

Full notification of deaths and compilation of good quality cause of death data are core, sequential and essential components of a functional civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system. In collaboration with the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), trial mortality surveillance activities were established at sites in Alotau District in Milne Bay Province, Tambul-Nebilyer District in Western Highlands Province and Talasea District in West New Britain Province.Provincial Health Authorities trialled strategies to improve completeness of death notification and implement an automated verbal autopsy methodology, including use of different notification agents and paper or mobile phone methods. Completeness of death notification improved from virtually 0% to 20% in Talasea, 25% and 75% using mobile phone and paper notification strategies, respectively, in Alotau, and 69% in Tambul-Nebilyer. We discuss the challenges and lessons learnt with implementing these activities in PNG, including logistical considerations and incentives.Our experience indicates that strategies to maximise completeness of notification should be tailored to the local context, which in PNG includes significant geographical, cultural and political diversity. We report that health workers have great potential to improve the CRVS programme in PNG through managing the collection of notification and verbal autopsy data. In light of our findings, and in consultation with the main government CRVS stakeholders and the National CRVS Committee, we make recommendations regarding the requirements at each level of the health system to optimise mortality surveillance in order to generate the essential health intelligence required for policy and planning.

Background Almost all countries without complete vital registration systems have data on deaths collected by hospitals. However, these data have not been widely used to estimate cause of death (COD) patterns in populations because only a non-representative fraction of people in these countries die in health facilities. Methods that can exploit hospital mortality statistics to reliably estimate community COD patterns are required to strengthen the evidence base for disease and injury control programs. We propose a method that weights hospital-certified causes by the probability of death to estimate population cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs). Methods We used an established verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) to collect data from hospital catchment areas in Chandpur and Comilla Districts, Bangladesh, and Bohol province, the Philippines, between 2011 and 2014, along with demographic covariates for each death. Hospital medical certificates of cause of death (death certificates) were collected and mapped to the corresponding cause categories of the VAI. Tariff 2.0 was used to assign a COD for community deaths. Logistic regression models were created for broad causes in each country to calculate the probability of in-hospital death, given a set of covariate values. The reweighted CSMFs for deaths in the hospital catchment population, represented by each hospital death, were calculated from the corresponding regression models. Results We collected data on 4228 adult deaths in the Philippines and 3725 deaths in Bangladesh. Short time to hospital and education were consistently associated with in-hospital death in the Philippines and absence of a disability was consistently associated with in-hospital death in Bangladesh. Non-communicable diseases (excluding stroke) and stroke were the leading causes of death in both the Philippines (33.9%, 19.1%) and Bangladesh (46.1%, 21.1%) according to the reweighted method. The reweighted method generally estimated CSMFs that fell between those derived from hospitals and those diagnosed by Tariff 2.0. Conclusions Statistical methods can be used to derive estimates of cause-specific probability of death in-hospital for Bangladesh and the Philippines to generate population CSMFs. In regions where hospital death certification is of reasonable quality and routine verbal autopsy is not applied, these estimates could be applied to generate cost-effective and robust CSMFs for the population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1267-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is poorly measured because routine reporting of deaths is incomplete and inaccurate. This study provides the first estimates in the academic literature of adult mortality (45q15) in PNG by province and sex. These results are compared to a Composite Index of provincial socio-economic factors and health access. Methods Adult mortality estimates (45q15) by province and sex were derived using the orphanhood method from data reported in the 2000 and 2011 national censuses. Male adult mortality was adjusted based on the estimated incompleteness of mortality reporting. The Composite Index was developed using the mean of education, economic and health access indicators from various data sources. Results Adult mortality for PNG in 2011 was estimated as 269 per 1000 for males and 237 for females. It ranged from 197 in Simbu to 356 in Sandaun province among men, and from 164 in Western Highlands to 326 in Gulf province among women. Provinces with a low Composite Index (Sandaun, Gulf, Enga and Southern Highlands) had comparatively high levels of adult mortality for both sexes, while provinces with a higher Composite Index (National Capital District and Manus) reported lower adult mortality. Conclusions Adult mortality in PNG remains high compared with other developing countries. Provincial variations in mortality correlate with the Composite Index. Health and development policy in PNG needs to urgently address the main causes of persistent high premature adult mortality, particularly in less developed provinces.

Introduction Many national and subnational governments need to routinely measure the completeness of death registration for monitoring and statistical purposes. Existing methods, such as death distribution and capture-recapture methods, have a number of limitations such as inaccuracy and complexity that prevent widespread application. This paper presents a novel empirical method to estimate completeness of death registration at the national and subnational level. Methods Random-effects models to predict the logit of death registration completeness were developed from 2,451 country-years in 110 countries from 1970–2015 using the Global Burden of Disease 2015 database. Predictors include the registered crude death rate, under-five mortality rate, population age structure and under-five death registration completeness. Models were developed separately for males, females and both sexes. Findings All variables are highly significant and reliably predict completeness of registration across a wide range of registered crude death rates (R-squared 0.85). Mean error is highest at medium levels of observed completeness. The models show quite close agreement between predicted and observed completeness for populations outside the dataset. There is high concordance with the Hybrid death distribution method in Brazilian states. Uncertainty in the under-five mortality rate, assessed using the dataset and in Colombian departmentos, has minimal impact on national level predicted completeness, but a larger effect at the subnational level. Conclusions The method demonstrates sufficient flexibility to predict a wide range of completeness levels at a given registered crude death rate. The method can be applied utilising data readily available at the subnational level, and can be used to assess completeness of deaths reported from health facilities, censuses and surveys. Its utility is diminished where the adult mortality rate is unusually high for a given under-five mortality rate. The method overcomes the considerable limitations of existing methods and has considerable potential for widespread application by national and subnational governments.

Background Accurate and timely data on cause of death are critically important for guiding health programs and policies. Deaths certified by doctors are implicitly considered to be reliable and accurate, yet the quality of information provided in the international Medical Certificate of Cause of Death (MCCD) usually varies according to the personnel involved in certification, the diagnostic capacity of the hospital, and the category of hospitals. There are no published studies that have analysed how certifying doctors in Bangladesh adhere to international rules when completing the MCCD or have assessed the quality of clinical record keeping. Methods The study took place between January 2011 and April 2014 in the Chandpur and Comilla districts of Bangladesh. We introduced the international MCCD to all study hospitals. Trained project physicians assigned an underlying cause of death, assessed the quality of the death certificate, and reported the degree of certainty of the medical records provided for a given cause. We examined the frequency of common errors in completing the MCCD, the leading causes of in-hospital deaths, and the degree of certainty in the cause of death data. Results The study included 4914 death certificates. 72.9% of medical records were of too poor quality to assign a cause of death, with little difference by age, hospital, and cause of death. 95.6% of death certificates did not indicate the time interval between onset and death, 31.6% required a change in sequence, 13.9% required to include a new diagnosis, 50.7% used abbreviations, 41.5% used multiple causes per line, and 33.2% used an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death. 99.1% of death certificates had at least one error. The leading cause of death among adults was stroke (15.8%), among children was pneumonia (31.7%), and among neonates was birth asphyxia (52.8%). Conclusion Physicians in Bangladeshi hospitals had difficulties in completing the MCCD correctly. Physicians routinely made errors in death certification practices and medical record quality was poor. There is an urgent need to improve death certification practices and the quality of hospital data in Bangladesh if these data are to be useful for policy. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2628-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

International audience; BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52*8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24*9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15*9 million (34*1%) of 46*5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2*5 to 1*4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3*4 to 2*8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3*1 to 2*2 million), measles (from 0*63 to 0*13 million), and tetanus (from 0*27 to 0*06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0*30 million in 1990 to 1*5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1*7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19*9% since 1990 to 1*17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1*2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34*5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1*5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12*9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1*3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5*1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9*6%) compared with two decades earlier (8*8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1*3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improvements in child survival to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4 require highly accessible and effective maternal and child health (MCH) services. This article seeks to fill the gap in information for local government in Indonesia about early age mortality and access to appropriate care to inform the evaluation and planning of MCH services. The Ende Child Mortality Survey (ECMS) was conducted in the district of Ende in Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT), one of the poorest provinces in Indonesia. The ECMS is a cross-sectional household survey, providing information on child survival, MCH service utilisation, and socio-economic characteristics of the population. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to examine the association of mortality, health service utilisation and socio-economic variables. Use of an unskilled birth attendant (45% of births) and giving birth at home are most common among the poorest and least educated women. The children of these women have the highest risk of infant mortality. The infant mortality rate differs greatly by region within Ende. Time to the preferred provider of child health care is longest in regions with the highest under-five mortality risk. Many women in Ende do not receive vital interventions during labour to reduce infant mortality. The ECMS demonstrates the feasibility in implementing a low cost survey to provide evidence for MCH investments to improve accessibility to appropriate health services and reduce mortality risk.

Analysis of long-term trends in smoking and causes of death in Australia are prevented by a lack of detailed tobacco consumption data prior to World War II. The objective of this study was to reconstruct data on tobacco consumption in Australia back to 1887 and examine its relationship with population-level lung cancer mortality, corrected for biases and miscoding.Back-extrapolation techniques and existing tobacco sales data were combined to estimate tobacco consumption prior to the 1940s. The relationship of tobacco and lung cancer mortality was examined with descriptive period and cohort analyses and log-linear Poisson regression models of cumulative cohort consumption.The results show that tobacco consumption rose steadily in Australia for the majority of years from 1887 to World War II, before increasing drastically in the following years and then falling sharply to the present day. Lung cancer mortality was strongly influenced by tobacco consumption, peaking 20-25 years after the peak in tobacco consumption for men and 25-30 years for women. Regression models found cumulative consumption a very strong predictor of mortality.Period and cohort trends in smoking and lung cancer were similar to many other Western countries. The effectiveness of smoking reduction campaigns in Australia clearly reduced male lung cancer mortality and provides guidance for other countries, such as China, where smoking prevalence remains high.

Cause-specific mortality data is essential for planning intervention programs to reduce mortality in the under age five years population (under-five). However, there is a critical paucity of such information for most of the developing world, particularly where progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) has been slow. This paper presents a predictive cause of death model for under-five mortality based on historical vital statistics and discusses the utility of the model in generating information that could accelerate progress towards MDG 4. Over 1400 country years of vital statistics from 34 countries collected over a period of nearly a century were analyzed to develop relationships between levels of under-five mortality, related mortality ratios, and proportionate mortality from four cause groups: perinatal conditions; diarrhea and lower respiratory infections; congenital anomalies; and all other causes of death. A system of multiple equations with cross-equation parameter restrictions and correlated error terms was developed to predict proportionate mortality by cause based on given measures of under-five mortality. The strength of the predictive model was tested through internal and external cross-validation techniques. Modeled cause-specific mortality estimates for major regions in Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America are presented to illustrate its application across a range of under-five mortality rates. Consistent and plausible trends and relationships are observed from historical data. High mortality rates are associated with increased proportions of deaths from diarrhea and lower respiratory infections. Perinatal conditions assume importance as a proportionate cause at under-five mortality rates below 60 per 1000 live births. Internal and external validation confirms strength and consistency of the predictive model. Model application at regional level demonstrates heterogeneity and non-linearity in cause-composition arising from the range of under-five mortality rates and related mortality ratios. Historical analyses suggest that under-five mortality transitions are associated with significant changes in cause of death composition. Sub-national differentials in under-five mortality rates could require intervention programs targeted to address specific cause distributions. The predictive model could, therefore, help set broad priorities for interventions at the local level based on periodic under-five mortality measurement. Given current resource constraints, such priority setting mechanisms are essential to accelerate reductions in under-five mortality.

To explore the prevalence of unmet demand for training by mature age Australians and to identify the main barriers to accessing training.A total of 3007 Australians aged 45-74 years were surveyed using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing. The sample frame was randomly selected and stratified based on the capital city and the rest of the state, and data were weighted to be nationally representative.Over one-third (37%) of respondents who had worked in the past five years reported wanting to attend some form of training but were unable to; these were most likely women and those aged 45-54 year. Commonly cited reasons for not being able to attend training included not being able to fit it in with work commitments, affordability and employer reluctance.Reduction of these barriers to workplace training can improve mature age people's ability to remain engaged in the workforce.

In many countries, existing health data sources are underutilised to inform health decision-making. Improving the capacity of public health officials to assess, analyse and interpret existing data is a primary means for overcoming this issue. One data source with much potential to inform health policy is the Demographic and Health Survey (OHS). The OHS, which has been conducted in over 90 countries, collects data in a standardised fashion that can produce a range of key indicators for health policy, including health outcomes, health service utilisation, environmental factors, and demographic and socio-economic factors. The OHS also allows for comparison of indicators over time within a country, as well as comparison of indicators between countries. This article details the type of data available in the OHS and details a range of indicators that can be produced from these data. A major advantage of the OHS is that the datasets are freely available for analysis. The OHS therefore provides much potential for harnessing existing skills of public health officials and researchers to assess, analyse and interpret its wealth of data. This article presents tools, for use in Stata software, to compute these indicators and analyse them according to geographic, socio-economic and other factors. Such tools can be adjusted to suit the type of information the analyst wishes to derive from the data. Improving the use of OHS data in settings where health data from other sources is lacking will strengthen the evidence-base for health policy.

Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

There is an urgent need for measurements of the magnitude and determinants of under-5 mortality at the district level in Indonesia. This article describes a sample household survey conducted in Ende District, East Nusa Tenggara province. Complete birth histories were recorded from all women residing in a sample of 32 villages (7454 households) of Ende. The survey was conducted in early 2010, deriving measures for the period 2000-2009. The survey instrument also included key variables required to measure determinants of under-5 mortality. The results showed that there are significant differentials in under-5 mortality risk within Ende, ranging from 27 to 85 per 1000. This information will assist the district health office to implement maternal and child health programs to meet national targets for United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4. The findings provide robust mortality measures at the district level and demonstrate the feasibility of conducting such a study using local resources, in a short time, and with low costs.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia bears the third highest tuberculosis (TB) burden in the world. Current mortality estimates are based on notification and case fatality rates derived from the National TB Control Programme. OBJECTIVE: To report TB mortality measures for 2007-2008 based on death registration systems in selected populations in five provinces of Indonesia. METHODS: Data were compiled from sites in Central Java, Lampung, Gorontalo, West Kalimantan and Papua in 2007-2008, covering 2.5 million people. Overall mortality levels and TB mortality indicators were computed. Data quality was assessed in terms of completeness of death registration and strength of evidence in verbal autopsy questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 1547 TB deaths were diagnosed in the five provinces. There was direct or indirect evidence of incomplete death registration at all sites. More than 90% of TB diagnoses from verbal autopsies were based on strong evidence. The results demonstrate high TB death rates in Papua, and significant mortality differentials across provinces. CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of cause-specific mortality is feasible by strengthening death registration in Indonesia. Observed TB mortality rates from five sites are baseline evidence for monitoring TB control programmes. Sustained efforts are required to develop death registration as a routine annual source of mortality data for Indonesia.

SummaryThis study examines the hypothesis that the stopping rule – a traditional postnatal sex selection method where couples decide to cease childbearing once they bear a son – plays a role in high sex ratio of last births (SRLB). The study develops a theoretical framework to demonstrate the operation of the stopping rule in a context of son preference. This framework was used to demonstrate the impact of the stopping rule on the SRLB in Vietnam, using data from the Population Change Survey 2006. The SRLB of Vietnam was high at the level of 130 in the period 1970–2006, and particularly in the period 1986–1995, when sex-selective abortion was not available. Women were 21% more likely to stop childbearing after a male birth compared with a female birth. The SRLB was highest at parity 2 (138.7), particularly in rural areas (153.5), and extremely high (181.9) when the previous birth was female. Given the declining fertility, the stopping rule has a potential synergistic effect with sex-selective abortion to accentuate a trend of one-son families in the population.