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Background: Timely diagnosis of structural heart disease improves patient outcomes, yet many remain underdiagnosed. While population screening with echocardiography is impractical, ECG-based prediction models can help target high-risk patients. We developed a novel ECG-based machine learning approach to predict multiple structural heart conditions, hypothesizing that a composite model would yield higher prevalence and positive predictive values to facilitate meaningful recommendations for echocardiography. Methods: Using 2 232 130 ECGs linked to electronic health records and echocardiography reports from 484 765 adults between 1984 to 2021, we trained machine learning models to predict the presence or absence of any of 7 echocardiography-confirmed diseases within 1 year. This composite label included the following: moderate or severe valvular disease (aortic/mitral stenosis or regurgitation, tricuspid regurgitation), reduced ejection fraction 15 mm. We tested various combinations of input features (demographics, laboratory values, structured ECG data, ECG traces) and evaluated model performance using 5-fold cross-validation, multisite validation trained on 1 site and tested on 10 independent sites, and simulated retrospective deployment trained on pre-2010 data and deployed in 2010. Results: Our composite rECHOmmend model used age, sex, and ECG traces and had a 0.91 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a 42% positive predictive value at 90% sensitivity, with a composite label prevalence of 17.9%. Individual disease models had area under the receiver operating characteristic curves from 0.86 to 0.93 and lower positive predictive values from 1% to 31%. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for models using different input features ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, increasing with additional features. Multisite validation showed similar results to cross-validation, with an aggregate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 across our independent test set of 10 clinical sites after training on a separate site. Our simulated retrospective deployment showed that for ECGs acquired in patients without preexisting structural heart disease in the year 2010, 11% were classified as high risk and 41% (4.5% of total patients) developed true echocardiography-confirmed disease within 1 year. Conclusions: An ECG-based machine learning model using a composite end point can identify a high-risk population for having undiagnosed, clinically significant structural heart disease while outperforming single-disease models and improving practical utility with higher positive predictive values. This approach can facilitate targeted screening with echocardiography to improve underdiagnosis of structural heart disease.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke. Methods: We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9–7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG. Conclusions: Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.

Machine learning promises to assist physicians with predictions of mortality and of other future clinical events by learning complex patterns from historical data, such as longitudinal electronic health records. Here we show that a convolutional neural network trained on raw pixel data in 812,278 echocardiographic videos from 34,362 individuals provides superior predictions of one-year all-cause mortality. The model’s predictions outperformed the widely used pooled cohort equations, the Seattle Heart Failure score (measured in an independent dataset of 2,404 patients with heart failure who underwent 3,384 echocardiograms), and a machine learning model involving 58 human-derived variables from echocardiograms and 100 clinical variables derived from electronic health records. We also show that cardiologists assisted by the model substantially improved the sensitivity of their predictions of one-year all-cause mortality by 13% while maintaining prediction specificity. Large unstructured datasets may enable deep learning to improve a wide range of clinical prediction models. A deep learning model trained on raw pixel data in hundreds of thousands of echocardiographic videos for the prediction of one-year all-cause mortality outperforms clinical scores and improves predictions by cardiologists.

Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with variants in desmosome genes. Secondary findings of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants, primarily loss-of-function (LOF) variants, are recommended for clinical reporting; however, their prevalence and associated phenotype in a general clinical population are not fully characterized. Methods: From whole-exome sequencing of 61 019 individuals in the DiscovEHR cohort, we screened for putative loss-of-function variants in PKP2 , DSC2 , DSG2 , and DSP . We evaluated measures from prior clinical ECG and echocardiograms, manually over-read to evaluate ARVC diagnostic criteria, and performed a PheWAS (phenome-wide association study). Finally, we estimated expected penetrance using Bayesian inference. Results: One hundred forty individuals (0.23%; 59±18 years old at last encounter; 33% male) had an ARVC variant (G + ). None had an existing diagnosis of ARVC in the electronic health record, nor significant differences in prior ECG or echocardiogram findings compared with matched controls without variants. Several G + individuals satisfied major repolarization (n=4) and ventricular function (n=5) criteria, but this prevalence matched controls. PheWAS showed no significant associations of other heart disease diagnoses. Combining our best genetic and disease prevalence estimates yields an estimated penetrance of 6.0%. Conclusions: The prevalence of ARVC loss-of-function variants is ≈1:435 in a general clinical population of predominantly European descent, but with limited electronic health record-based evidence of phenotypic association in our population, consistent with a low penetrance estimate. Prospective deep phenotyping and longitudinal follow-up of a large sequenced cohort is needed to determine the true clinical relevance of an incidentally identified ARVC loss-of-function variant.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used medical test, consisting of voltage versus time traces collected from surface recordings over the heart1. Here we hypothesized that a deep neural network (DNN) can predict an important future clinical event, 1-year all-cause mortality, from ECG voltage–time traces. By using ECGs collected over a 34-year period in a large regional health system, we trained a DNN with 1,169,662 12-lead resting ECGs obtained from 253,397 patients, in which 99,371 events occurred. The model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 on a held-out test set of 168,914 patients, in which 14,207 events occurred. Even within the large subset of patients (n = 45,285) with ECGs interpreted as ‘normal’ by a physician, the performance of the model in predicting 1-year mortality remained high (AUC = 0.85). A blinded survey of cardiologists demonstrated that many of the discriminating features of these normal ECGs were not apparent to expert reviewers. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazard model revealed a hazard ratio of 9.5 (P

Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.

PURPOSE Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). MATERIALS AND METHODS Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. RESULTS IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P

High-resolution chest computed tomography (HRCT) is essential in the characterization of interstitial lung disease. The HRCT features of some diseases can be diagnostic. Longitudinal monitoring with HRCT can assess progression of interstitial lung disease; however, subtle changes in the volume and character of abnormalities can be difficult to assess. Accuracy of diagnosis can be dependent on expertise and experience of the radiologist, pathologist, or clinician. Quantitative analysis of thoracic HRCT has the potential to determine the extent of disease reproducibly, classify the types of abnormalities, and automate the diagnostic process.Novel software that utilizes histogram signatures to characterize pulmonary parenchyma was used to analyze chest HRCT data, including retrospective processing of clinical CT scans and research data from the Lung Tissue Research Consortium. Additional information including physiological, pathologic, and semiquantitative radiologist assessment was available to allow comparison of quantitative results, with visual estimates of the disease, physiological parameters, and measures of disease outcome.Quantitative analysis results were provided in regional volumetric quantities for statistical analysis and a graphical representation. These results suggest that quantitative HRCT analysis can serve as a biomarker with physiological, pathologic, and prognostic significance.It is likely that quantitative analysis of HRCT can be used in clinical practice as a means to aid in identifying a probable diagnosis, stratifying prognosis in early disease, and consistently determining progression of the disease or response to therapy. Further optimization of quantitative techniques and longitudinal analysis of well-characterized subjects would be helpful in validating these methods.

Accurate assessment of prognosis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis remains elusive due to significant individual radiological and physiological variability. We hypothesised that short-term radiological changes may be predictive of survival. We explored the use of CALIPER (Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating), a novel software tool developed by the Biomedical Imaging Resource Laboratory at the Mayo Clinic Rochester (Rochester, MN, USA) for the analysis and quantification of parenchymal lung abnormalities on high-resolution computed tomography. We assessed baseline and follow-up (time-points 1 and 2, respectively) high-resolution computed tomography scans in 55 selected idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients and correlated CALIPER-quantified measurements with expert radiologists’ assessments and clinical outcomes. Findings of interval change (mean 289 days) in volume of reticular densities (hazard ratio 1.91, p=0.006), total volume of interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.70, p=0.003) and per cent total interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.52, p=0.017) as quantified by CALIPER were predictive of survival after a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Radiologist interpretation of short-term global interstitial lung disease progression, but not specific radiological features, was also predictive of mortality. These data demonstrate the feasibility of quantifying interval short-term changes on high-resolution computed tomography and their possible use as independent predictors of survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Short-term quantified CT changes are predictive of survival in IPF

The aim of the study was to determine whether a novel computed tomography (CT) postprocessing software technique (CALIPER) is superior to visual CT scoring as judged by functional correlations in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).A total of 283 consecutive patients with IPF had CT parenchymal patterns evaluated quantitatively with CALIPER and by visual scoring. These 2 techniques were evaluated against: forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco), carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (Kco), and a composite physiological index (CPI), with regard to extent of interstitial lung disease (ILD), extent of emphysema, and pulmonary vascular abnormalities.CALIPER-derived estimates of ILD extent demonstrated stronger univariate correlations than visual scores for most pulmonary function tests (PFTs): (FEV1: CALIPER R=0.29, visual R=0.18; FVC: CALIPER R=0.41, visual R=0.27; DLco: CALIPER R=0.31, visual R=0.35; CPI: CALIPER R=0.48, visual R=0.44). Correlations between CT measures of emphysema extent and PFTs were weak and did not differ significantly between CALIPER and visual scoring. Intriguingly, the pulmonary vessel volume provided similar correlations to total ILD extent scored by CALIPER for FVC, DLco, and CPI (FVC: R=0.45; DLco: R=0.34; CPI: R=0.53).CALIPER was superior to visual scoring as validated by functional correlations with PFTs. The pulmonary vessel volume, a novel CALIPER CT parameter with no visual scoring equivalent, has the potential to be a CT feature in the assessment of patients with IPF and requires further exploration.

Radiologists are adept at recognizing the character and extent of lung parenchymal abnormalities in computed tomography (CT) scans. However, the inconsistent differential diagnosis due to subjective aggregation necessitates the exploration of automated classification based on supervised or unsupervised learning. The robustness of supervised learning depends on the training samples. Towards optimizing emphysema classification, we introduce a physician-in-the-loop feedback approach to minimize ambiguity in the selected training samples. An experienced thoracic radiologist selected 412 regions of interest (ROIs) across 15 datasets to represent 124, 129, 139 and 20 training samples of mild, moderate, severe emphysema and normal appearance, respectively. Using multi-view (multiple metrics to capture complementary features) inductive learning, an ensemble of seven un-optimized support vector models (SVM) each based on a specific metric was constructed in less than 6 s. The training samples were classified using seven SVM models and consensus labels were created using majority voting. In the active relearning phase, the ensemble-expert label conflicts were resolved by the expert. The efficacy and generality of active relearning feedback was assessed in the optimized parameter space of six general purpose classifiers across the seven dissimilarity metrics. The proposed just-in-time active relearning feedback with un-optimized SVMs yielded 15 % increase in classification accuracy and 25 % reduction in the number of support vectors. The average improvement in accuracy of six classifiers in their optimized parameter space was 21 %. The proposed cooperative feedback method enhances the quality of training samples used to construct automated classification of emphysematous CT scans. Such an approach could lead to substantial improvement in quantification of emphysema.

In some respects, the lung is an anatomical bog - having limited referential landmarks. Nonetheless, precise understanding of the abnormalities that inflict this organ is crucial to effective clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, wading interactively through a three-dimensional scan of the lung poses a visual quagmire to the radiologist, resulting in significant interpretive differences due to inter and intra observer variation. Despite the continuing progress in quantitative imaging, lack of unambiguous visualization with accurately, relevant cues severely hinders the clinical adoption of many computational tools. We address this unmet need through a lean visualization paradigm wherein information is presented hierarchically to provide an interactive macro-to-micro view of lung pathologies. At the macro level, the structural and functional information is summarized into a synoptic glyph that is readily interpreted and correlated to a priori known disease states. The glyphs are "patho-spatio-temporally" tagged to facilitate navigation through the level-of-detail scales, down to the micro level values in the image voxels, providing quantitative interpretation of tissue type and the confidence level in the quantitation. A novel volume compositing scheme is proposed to specify and guide to the optimal site for surgical lung biopsy. This intuitive, interactive interface for rapid and unambiguous navigation towards the clinical endpoint harnesses the power of bio-informatics technology to provide an efficient, clinically relevant and comprehensive summary of pulmonary disease, including precise location, spatial extent and intrinsic character.

This paper introduces computational tools that could enable personalized, predictive, preemptive, and participatory (P4) Pulmonary medicine. We demonstrate approaches to (a) stratify lungs from different subjects based on the spatial distribution of parenchymal abnormality and (b) visualize the stratification through glyphs that convey both the grouping efficacy and an iconic overview of an individual's lung wellness. Affinity propagation based on regional parenchymal abnormalities is used in the referenceless stratification. Abnormalities are computed using supervised classification based on Earth Mover's distance. Twenty natural clusters were detected from 372 CT lung scans. The computed clusters correlated with clinical consensus of 9 disease types. The quality of inter- and intra-cluster stratification as assessed by ANOSIM R was 0.887 +/- 0.18 (pval0.0005). The proposed tools could serve as biomarkers to objectively diagnose pathology, track progression and assess pharmacologic response within and across patients.

Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients.