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Introduction In January 2019, the West Virginia Bureau for Public Health detected increased HIV diagnoses among people who inject drugs in Cabell County. Responding to HIV clusters and outbreaks is 1 of the 4 pillars of the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative and requires activities from the Diagnose, Treat, and Prevent pillars. This article describes the design and implementation of a comprehensive response, featuring interventions from all pillars. Methods This study used West Virginia Bureau for Public Health data to identify HIV diagnoses during January 1, 2018–October 9, 2019 among (1) people who inject drugs linked to Cabell County, (2) their sex or injecting partners, or (3) others with an HIV sequence linked to Cabell County people who inject drugs. Surveillance data, including HIV-1 polymerase sequences, were analyzed to estimate the transmission rate and timing of infections using molecular clock phylogenetic analysis. Federal, state, and local partners designed and implemented a comprehensive response during January 2019–October 2019. Results Of 82 people identified in the outbreak, most were male (60%), were White (91%), and reported unstable housing (80%). In a large molecular cluster containing 56 of 60 (93%) available sequences, 93% of inferred transmissions occurred after January 1, 2018. HIV testing, HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services were rapidly expanded, leading to improved linkage to HIV care and viral suppression. Conclusions Evidence of rapid transmission in this outbreak galvanized robust collaboration among federal, state, and local partners, leading to critical improvements in HIV prevention and care services. HIV outbreak response requires increased coordination and creativity to improve service delivery to people affected by rapid HIV transmission.

Diagnoses of HIV among people who inject drugs have increased in the U.S. during 2014-2018 for the first time in 2 decades, and multiple HIV outbreaks have been detected among people who inject drugs since 2015. These epidemiologic trends pose a significant concern for achieving goals of the federal initiative for Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. Syringe services programs are cost effective, safe, and highly effective in reducing HIV transmission and are an essential component of a comprehensive, integrated approach to addressing these concerns. Yet, geographic coverage of these programs remains limited in the U.S., and many jurisdictions continue to have laws and policies that limit or disallow syringe services programs. An in-depth literature review was conducted on the role of syringe services programs in the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative. Empirical and model-based evidence consistently shows that syringe services programs have the highest impact in HIV prevention when combined with access to medications for substance use disorder and antiretroviral therapy. Their effectiveness is further maximized when they provide services without restrictions and include proven and innovative strategies to expand access to harm-reduction and clinical services (e.g., peer outreach, telehealth). Increasing geographic and service coverage of syringe services programs requires strong and sustainable policy, funding, and community support and will need to address new challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Syringe services programs have a key role in all 4 Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative strategies-Prevent, Diagnose, Treat, and Respond-and thus are instrumental to its success in preventing disease and saving lives.

Background Limited data exist in the United States on the prevalence of HIV among women who exchange sex. Setting We estimate HIV prevalence of women who exchange sex from a 2016 survey in Chicago, Detroit, Houston, and Seattle and compare it with the prevalence of HIV among women of low socioeconomic status (SES), who did not exchange sex, and women in the general population. Methods Women who exchange sex were recruited via respondent-driven sampling among some cities participating in National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, interviewed, and offered HIV testing. We estimate HIV prevalence and, using prevalence ratios, compare it with the prevalence among women of low SES who did not exchange sex in the 2013 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance cycle, and to women in the general population estimated using 2015 National HIV Surveillance data. Results One thousand four hundred forty women reported exchange sex in 2016. Aggregated HIV prevalence was 4.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7 to 7.1] among women who exchanged sex, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.3 to 2.8) among women of low SES who did not exchange sex, and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5% to 0.6%) among women in the general population. HIV prevalence among women who exchanged sex was 3.1 times (95% CI: 1.6 to 5.9) as high as among women of low SES who did not exchange sex, and 8.8 times (95% CI: 7.0 to 11.1) as high as among women in the general population. Conclusion HIV prevalence was significantly higher among women who exchanged sex compared with women in the general population and women of low SES who did not exchange sex.

Preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in correctional and detention facilities* can be challenging because of population-dense housing, varied access to hygiene facilities and supplies, and limited space for isolation and quarantine (1). Incarcerated and detained populations have a high prevalence of chronic diseases, increasing their risk for severe COVID-19-associated illness and making early detection critical (2,3). Correctional and detention facilities are not closed systems; SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can be transmitted to and from the surrounding community through staff member and visitor movements as well as entry, transfer, and release of incarcerated and detained persons (1). To better understand SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in these settings, CDC requested data from 15 jurisdictions describing results of mass testing events among incarcerated and detained persons and cases identified through earlier symptom-based testing. Six jurisdictions reported SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 0%-86.8% (median = 29.3%) from mass testing events in 16 adult facilities. Before mass testing, 15 of the 16 facilities had identified at least one COVID-19 case among incarcerated or detained persons using symptom-based testing, and mass testing increased the total number of known cases from 642 to 8,239. Case surveillance from symptom-based testing has likely underestimated SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in correctional and detention facilities. Broad-based testing can provide a more accurate assessment of prevalence and generate data to help control transmission (4).

An estimated 2.1 million U.S. adults are housed within approximately 5,000 correctional and detention facilities† on any given day (1). Many facilities face significant challenges in controlling the spread of highly infectious pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Such challenges include crowded dormitories, shared lavatories, limited medical and isolation resources, daily entry and exit of staff members and visitors, continual introduction of newly incarcerated or detained persons, and transport of incarcerated or detained persons in multiperson vehicles for court-related, medical, or security reasons (2,3). During April 22-28, 2020, aggregate data on COVID-19 cases were reported to CDC by 37 of 54 state and territorial health department jurisdictions. Thirty-two (86%) jurisdictions reported at least one laboratory-confirmed case from a total of 420 correctional and detention facilities. Among these facilities, COVID-19 was diagnosed in 4,893 incarcerated or detained persons and 2,778 facility staff members, resulting in 88 deaths in incarcerated or detained persons and 15 deaths among staff members. Prompt identification of COVID-19 cases and consistent application of prevention measures, such as symptom screening and quarantine, are critical to protecting incarcerated and detained persons and staff members.

In the United States, 10% of HIV infections diagnosed in 2018 were attributed to unsafe injection drug use or male-to-male sexual contact among persons who inject drugs (PWID) (1). In 2017, among PWID or men who have sex with men and who inject drugs (MSM-ID), 76% of those who received a diagnosis of HIV infection lived in urban areas* (2). To monitor the prevalence of HIV infection and associated behaviors among persons who reported injecting drugs in the past 12 months, including MSM-ID, CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) conducts interviews and HIV testing among populations of persons at high risk for HIV infection (MSM, PWID, and heterosexually active adults at increased risk for HIV infection) in selected metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) (3). The estimated HIV infection prevalence among PWID in 23 MSAs surveyed in 2018 was 7%. Among HIV-negative PWID, an estimated 26% receptively shared syringes and 68% had condomless vaginal sex during the preceding 12 months. During the same period, 57% had been tested for HIV infection, and 55% received syringes from a syringe services program (SSP). While overall SSP use did not significantly change since 2015, a substantial decrease in SSP use occurred among Black PWID, and HIV prevalence among Black PWID was higher than that among Hispanic and White PWID. These findings underscore the importance of continuing and expanding HIV prevention programs and community-based strategies for PWID, such as those provided by SSPs, especially following service disruptions created by the COVID-19 pandemic (4). Efforts are needed to ensure that PWID have low-barrier access to comprehensive and integrated needs-based SSPs (where legally permissible) that include provision of sterile syringes and safe syringe disposal, HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing and referrals to HIV and HCV treatment, HIV preexposure prophylaxis, and treatment for substance use and mental health disorders.

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) engaging in receptive syringe sharing with their sex partner (dual partnership) may have different behavior patterns than people who have only sex or syringe sharing partnerships. PWID from 23 US cities were recruited for the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance in 2018 using respondent-driven sampling, interviewed, and tested for HIV. Log-linked Poisson regression was conducted to examine the associations between injecting and sexual behaviors and dual partnership. A total of 3435 PWID reported receptive syringe sharing and 42% engaged in dual partnership with their last sharing injecting partner. PWID who reported condomless vaginal or anal sex at last sex were more likely to engage in dual partnership (aPR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.65-2.08). PWID who reported having two or more sex partners (aPR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.62-0.72) or two or more sharing injecting partners (aPR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.50-0.59) were less likely to engage in dual partnership. Findings suggest opportunities for tailored prevention intervention, including couple-based HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and access to syringe services programs coupled with safer injection education to help reduce HIV risk.

Problem Receptive anal intercourse (RAI) is more efficient than receptive vaginal intercourse (RVI) at transmitting HIV, but its contribution to heterosexually acquired HIV infections among at-risk women in the USA is unclear. Method of study We analysed sexual behaviour data from surveys of 9152 low-income heterosexual women living in 20 cities with high rates of HIV conducted in 2010 and 2013 as part of US National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. We estimated RAI prevalence (past-year RAI) and RAI fraction (fraction of all sex acts (RVI and RAI) at the last sexual episode that were RAI among those reporting past-year RAI) overall and by key demographic characteristics. These results and HIV incidence were used to calibrate a risk equation model to estimate the population attributable fraction of new HIV infections due to RAI (PAFRAI ) accounting for uncertainty in parameter assumptions. Results Receptive anal intercourse prevalence (overall: 32%, city range: 19%-60%) and RAI fraction (overall: 27%, city range: 18%-34%) were high overall and across cities, and positively associated with exchange sex. RAI accounted for an estimated 41% (uncertainty range: 18%-55%) of new infections overall (city range: 21%-57%). Variability in PAFRAI estimates was most influenced by uncertainty in the estimate of the per-act increased risk of RAI relative to RVI and the number of sex acts. Conclusion Receptive anal intercourse may contribute disproportionately to new heterosexually acquired HIV infections among at-risk low-income women in the USA, meaning that tools to prevent HIV transmission during RAI are warranted. The number of RVI and RAI acts should also be collected to monitor heterosexually acquired HIV infections.

BACKGROUND Monitoring the effects of HIV prevention efforts among persons who inject drugs is key to informing prevention programs and policy. METHODS Data for this study came from the 2012 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance interviews with persons who inject drugs across 20 US cities. The present analyses include those who identified as female, ever had sex with a man, and were at risk of HIV infection (did not report a previous positive HIV test result) (n = 2624). We conducted latent class analysis to identify sexual risk classes, and modeled associations with engagement in HIV prevention services and HIV test results. RESULTS We identified 6 classes of sexual risk behavior: (1) low risk, (2) monogamous, (3) casual partner, (4) multiple partners, (5) exchange sex, and (6) exchange plus main partner. The class distribution was similar across the mainland regions. Bisexual orientation and homelessness were significant predictors of higher-risk class. HIV prevalence and participation in behavioral interventions did not vary significantly by risk class, while obtaining and using free condoms did. Independent of risk class, women in cities in the South were significantly less likely to use free condoms, and HIV prevalence was higher among non-Hispanic black women and women aged 40-49 years. CONCLUSIONS Bisexual orientation and homelessness were predictors of higher risk. Condom distribution programs reached fewer women in cities in the South. Race and age disparities in HIV-positive rates persisted after adjusting for sexual risk class.

ObjectivesTo determine prevalence of HIV and HIV-related behaviours in female seasonal farm workers (FSFWs) in two provinces of Souss Massa Draa (SMD) region in Morocco. SMD has a higher burden of HIV compared with other parts of Morocco and is characterised by a substantial aggregation of FSFW.MethodsWe carried out a cross-sectional HIV biobehavioural survey using cluster-based sampling of farms in the provinces Chtouka Aït Baha and Taroudant Ouled Teïma in 2014. HIV testing was done using the Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test and reactive specimens were tested using ELISA and western blot. Collected data were post hoc weighted for region-based stratification and adjusted for clustering effects using complex survey functions of SPSS (V.21).ResultsAmong those eligible to participate, the response rate was 92.8%. HIV prevalence was 0.9% (95% CI 0.4% to 2.4%) among 520 recruited participants. A high proportion of respondents (67.7%) had no education. Ever having sex was reported by 79.8% and among these, 12.7% ever exchanged sex for money or goods. Sixty-one per cent reported condom use at most recent commercial vaginal sex in the past 12 months. STI symptom recognition was found to be low because 62.4% and 46.8% of FSFW could not report any STI symptoms in men and women, respectively. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents had an HIV test in the past 12 months. In multivariable analysis, those with primary or higher education (adjusted OR (aOR)=2.38, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.27) and those who participated in an HIV educational session at their workplace (aOR=11.00, 95% CI 3.99 to 30.31) had higher odds of ever been tested for HIV.ConclusionsAlthough we found a relatively low HIV prevalence among FSFW in SMD, HIV interventions should be intensified, in particular, in a subgroup of women who are involved in sex work.

Background Syringe services programs (SSPs) have effectively limited the spread of HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID). Access to SSPs has been shown to reduce injection risk behaviors but the relationship between distance to an SSP and likelihood of sharing injection equipment is not well known. Methods We analyzed a sample of 8,392 PWID from 17 U.S. cities recruited through the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) system in 2015. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated from log-linked Poisson regression to explore associations between injecting equipment sharing in the past 12 months and distance to the nearest SSP. Results Regardless of SSP use, respondents who lived in zip codes further than the city-specific mean distance to nearest SSP were more likely to report sharing behavior. Among PWID who had not reported using an SSP in the previous 12 months, distributive sharing (aPR=1.13 95% CI=1.05, 1.21), receptive sharing (aPR=1.15, 95% CI=1.06, 1.24), and injection equipment sharing (aPR=1.08, 95% CI=1.03, 1.13) were more prevalent among residents who resided further than the average distance to the nearest SSP. Conclusions Greater distance to an SSP was associated with increased sharing behaviors. Improved access to an SSP and subsequent decreases in sharing behaviors could reduce transmission of HIV and HCV among PWID. Accessibility should be taken into account when planning provision of SSPs.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.METHODS: We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.FINDINGS: Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.INTERPRETATION: Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Background Drug overdose is the major cause of morbidity and mortality among persons who inject drugs (PWID). We assessed factors associated with the non-fatal drug overdose among PWID in three Croatian cities and national trends of overdose-related mortality (OM), and rates of uptake of opioid agonist drug treatment (OAT). Methods We used a respondent-driven sampling method to recruit 830 PWID in Zagreb, Split and Rijeka in 2014/2015. Participants completed behavioural questionnaires that included questions about overdose history, and we used Poisson regression to assess factors associated with self-reported overdose. We used joinpoint regression to calculate national trends of OM from 2001 to 2015 and rates of uptake of drug treatment from 2005 to 2015. Results Lifetime prevalence of self-reported drug overdose in our RDS sample was 45.2%, while 4.1% of PWID reported overdose in the past 12 months; PWID who injected more than one type of drug in the past 12 months (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 4.56, 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 1.35–15.38) compared to injecting only heroin, and those enrolled in OAT (aPR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.01–3.74) were more likely to report overdose in the past 12 months. We observed an increase in annual percent change (APC) of the national OM rates from 2001 to 2007 (APC = 22.5%, 95% CI = 16.3–29.0) and a decline from 2007 to 2015 (APC = −8.0%, 95% CI = −5.3- −10.5). The national rates of drug treatment enrollment increased from 2005 to 2010 (APC = 12.0%, 95% CI = 10.3–13.8), mostly due to increase in provision of buprenorphine from 2005 to 2008 (APC = 130.4%, 95% CI = 102.1–162.7). Conclusion Injecting more than one type of drugs and enrollment in OAT while still injecting drugs was positively associated with non-fatal overdose in our sample. To further reduce OM in Croatia we suggest improvements in coverage and delivery of OAT and establishment of provision of naloxone for PWID.

In the United States, hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission is rising among people who inject drugs (PWID). Many regions have insufficient prevention intervention coverage. Using modeling, we investigated the impact of scaling up prevention and treatment interventions on HCV transmission among PWID in Perry County, Kentucky, and San Francisco, California, where HCV seroprevalence among PWID is >50%. A greater proportion of PWID access medication-assisted treatment (MAT) or syringe service programs (SSP) in urban San Francisco (established community) than in rural Perry County (young, expanding community). We modeled the proportion of HCV-infected PWID needing HCV treatment annually to reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030, with and without MAT scale-up (50% coverage, both settings) and SSP scale-up (Perry County only) from 2017. With current MAT and SSP coverage during 2017–2030, HCV incidence would increase in Perry County (from 21.3 to 22.6 per 100 person-years) and decrease in San Francisco (from 12.9 to 11.9 per 100 person-years). With concurrent MAT and SSP scale-up, 5% per year of HCV-infected PWID would need HCV treatment in Perry County to achieve incidence targets—13% per year without MAT and SSP scale-up. In San Francisco, a similar proportion would need HCV treatment (10% per year) irrespective of MAT scale-up. Reaching the same impact by 2025 would require increases in treatment rates of 45%–82%. Achievable provision of HCV treatment, alongside MAT and SSP scale-up (Perry County) and MAT scale-up (San Francisco), could reduce HCV incidence.

Background We assessed correlates of anti-hepatitis C (anti-HCV) positivity and utilization of needle and syringe exchange programs (NSEP) and opioid agonist treatment (OAT) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in two Croatian cities. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using respondent-driven (RDS) sampling among PWID in Rijeka (N = 255) and Split (N = 399). We used RDS-weighted population estimates and multivariable logistic regression to explore correlates of anti-HCV positivity and NSEP and OAT utilization. Results Seventy-eight percent (78.0%) of PWID in Rijeka and 61.5% in Split had been tested previously for HCV, while 21.5% and 7.0%, respectively, were tested for HCV in the past 12 months. Among PWID who report being infected with HCV, 24.9% in Rijeka and 11.3% in Split received anti-HCV treatment. In Rijeka, PWID who utilized NSEP and, in Split, those who were ever imprisoned, had higher odds of anti-HCV positivity. In Rijeka, PWID on OAT were more likely to use non-sterile injecting equipment and to inject for longer than 10 years. PWID enrolled in NSEP were more likely to inject opioid agonist medication (OAM) and less likely to use non-sterile injecting equipment. More than half of PWID reported misuse of OAM in the past month, while out of PWID enrolled in OAT, 65.4% in Rijeka and 88.7% in Split injected OAM in the month prior to the survey. Conclusions Key findings of the paper point to the need to scale up HCV testing and treatment, improve access to NSEP and the quality of OAT provisions in order to prevent its misuse among PWID.

Background There are limited data on HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Croatia. This study aims to provide data on HIV and HCV prevalence and sexual and injecting risk behaviours among PWID in Zagreb, Split, and Rijeka. Methods Using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) we recruited from November 2014 to February 2015 a total of 176 PWID in Zagreb, 255 in Rijeka and 399 in Split. Participants provided biological specimens for HIV and HCV testing and completed a behavioural questionnaire. Results The proportion of female PWID ranged from 19.5% in Zagreb to 26.0% in Split. In the month before the survey, 2.5% of PWID in Split, 5.6% in Rijeka and 8.0% in Zagreb reported sharing non-sterile needles and syringes. Many PWID injected opioid substitution therapy (OST) in the month before the survey (57.0% in Zagreb and 57.5% in Split and Rijeka, respectively). Among PWID who had a casual sexual partner in the past 12 months (ranging from 39.2% in Split to 44.4% in Rijeka) condom use was low. Although HIV prevalence was low (0.2% in Rijeka and Zagreb, 0.3% in Split), HCV antibody prevalence was considerable (29.1% in Zagreb, 31.5% in Rijeka, 38.3% in Split). HIV and HCV testing coverage in the past 12 months was insufficient (6.8% and 7.0% in Split; 13.2% and 13.5% in Zagreb; 20.2% and 21.5% in Rijeka, respectively). Conclusion We found a low-level HIV epidemic and a sizable HCV epidemic among PWID in Zagreb, Split and Rijeka. Presence of high-risk injecting and sexual behaviours together with inadequate HIV and HCV testing coverage call for development of a comprehensive approach to harm reduction and introduction of needle and syringe exchange programmes in prisons, as well as strengthening sexual health interventions.

We provide a summary of the current status of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, including data on the transmission of drug-resistant virus in the European Region of the WHO. The review was conducted by searching the reports of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the United Nations General Assembly Special Session country reports to identify the number of HIV cases reported in 2002–2011, the number of HIV tests performed, and the results of the most recent HIV surveys in at-risk groups. In the West, a 5-year linear trend analysis suggests an increase in the number of reported HIV cases in Belgium, Greece, and Iceland, and a decline in The Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. In the Centre, the number of reported cases increased in Bulgaria and Turkey, and in the East, the number of reported cases increased in Armenia, Georgia, and Ukraine. Estonia and Latvia reported a significant downward trend. HIV transmission in men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexual transmission accounted for, respectively, 40% and 38% of newly reported HIV cases in the West in 2011, whereas the epidemic in the Centre is predominantly concentrated in MSM. Although injection drug use remains the key driving force of the epidemic in the East, there is increasing evidence of sexual transmission from the core groups of injection drug users, and increasing spread within MSM. The pattern of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is heterogeneous accross Europe; a significant number of clusters of TDR have been recently observed in several European countries.

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold