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Background: Mass screening of high-risk populations for oral cancer has proven to be effective in reducing oral cancer mortality. However, the magnitude of the effectiveness of the various screening scenarios has rarely been addressed. Methods: We developed a simulation algorithm for a prospective cohort under various oral cancer screening scenarios. A hypothetical cohort of 8 million participants aged ≥30 years with cigaret smoking and/or betel quid chewing habits was constructed based on parameters extracted from studies on oral cancer screening. The results of a population-based screening program in Taiwan and a randomized controlled trial in India were used to validate the fitness; then, the effectiveness of the model was determined by changing the screening parameters. Results: There was a reduction in the risk of advanced oral cancer by 40% (relative risk [RR] = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.59-0.62) and oral cancer mortality by 29% (RR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.69-0.73) at the 6-year follow-up in a screening scenario similar to the biennial screening in Taiwan, with a 55.1% attendance rate and 92.6% referral rate. The incremental effect in reducing advanced oral cancer was approximately 5% with a short 1-year screening frequency, and the corresponding reduction in mortality was, on average, 6.5%. The incremental reduction in advanced oral cancer per 10% increase in the compliance rate was 3% to 4%, while only 1% to 2% reduction was noted per 10% increase in the referral rate. The effectiveness of screening in reducing advanced oral cancer was 5% to 6% less when both betel quid chewing and alcohol drinking habits were present. Conclusion: Our computer simulation model demonstrated the effect of screening on the reduction in oral cancer mortality under various scenarios. The results provide screening policymakers with the necessary guidance to implement screening programs to save lives.

AimThe aim of this study was to compare the validity of different machine learning algorithms to develop and validate predictive models for periodontitis.Materials and MethodsUsing national survey data from Taiwan (n = 3453) and the United States (n = 3685), predictors of periodontitis were extracted from the datasets and pre-processed, and then 10 machine learning algorithms were trained to develop predictive models. The models were validated both internally (bootstrap sampling) and externally (alternative country's dataset). The algorithms were compared across six performance metrics ([i] area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC], [ii] accuracy, [iii] sensitivity, [iv] specificity, [v] positive predictive value, and [vi] negative predictive value) and two methods of data pre-processing ([i] machine-learning-based feature selection and [ii] dimensionality reduction into principal components).ResultsMany algorithms showed extremely strong performance during internal validation (AUC > 0.95, accuracy > 95%). However, this was not replicated in external validation, where predictive performance of all algorithms dropped off drastically. Furthermore, predictive performance differed according to data pre-processing methodology and the cohort on which they were trained.ConclusionsLarger sample sizes and more complex predictors of periodontitis are required before machine learning can be leveraged to its full potential.

Background Household transmission is responsible for the subsequent outbreak of community-acquired COVID-19. The aim of this study was to elucidate the household transmission mode and to further estimate effective and basic reproductive number with and without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Materials and Methods A total of 26 households with 39 family contacts between January, 2020 and February, 2021 in Taiwan were enrolled for analysis. The Becker’s chain binomial model was used to analyze the probabilities of being infected and escaped from SARS-COV-2 before and after January 1st, 2021, which were further converted to estimating basic reproductive numbers in the absence of NPIs. The likelihood of leading to the subsequent community-acquired outbreak given NPIs was further assessed. Results The secondary attack rate was 46.2%. Given the saturated Greenwood mode selected as the best fitted model, the probability of infected and escaped from COVID-19 within household was estimated as 44.4% (95% CI: 5.0%-53.7%) and 55.7% (95% CI: 46.3%-65.0%), respectively. In the second period of early 2021, the infected probability was increased to 58.3% (95% CI: 12.7%-90.0%)) and the escape probability was lowered to 41.7% (95% CI: 0.0%-86.9%)). The corresponding basic reproductive numbers (R0) increased from 4.29 in the first period to 6.73 in the second period without NPIs. However, none of subsequent community-acquired outbreak was noted in Taiwan given very effective NPIs in both periods. Conclusions The proposed method and results are useful for designing household-specific containment measures and NPIs to stamp out a large-scale community-acquired outbreak as demonstrated in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of the periodontal primary care (PPC) on the improvement of periodontal probing depth based on a periodontist's 30-year practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS We enrolled a total of 2,894 patients who underwent periodontal basic treatment between 1987 and 2017 with 84.5% retention rate. The study population was composed of 80% (n = 1,946) of retained patients with complete re-evaluation up to five-year follow-up. The outcome was measured by the improvement of probing depths (graded as 1:1-3 mm; 2:4-6 mm; 3: ≥7 mm) before and after PPC on both sextant and patient levels. Whether a better improvement was seen in the surgical group and the non-smoker group opposed to their comparators was assessed with various multi-variable regression models. RESULTS On patient (sextant) level, 82% (38%) improved, 13% (59%) unchanged, and 5% (3%) deteriorated. Adjusted better improvement of probing depth was noted for the surgical group by 63% and non-smoker by 31% compared with their counterparts. The similar findings were found for the outcomes based on continuous probing depth scores. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrate the improvement of probing depth scores with a periodontal primary care offered for the retained patients and larger effect for the surgical group and non-smoker patients.

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on overall and site-specific long-term effectiveness of population-based organised service screening.DesignA prospective cohort study of Taiwanese nationwide biennial FIT screening was performed. A total of 5 417 699 eligible subjects were invited to attend screening from 2004 through 2009 and were followed up until 2014. We estimated the adjusted relative rates (aRRs) on the effectiveness of reducing advanced-stage CRC (stage II+) and CRC death by Bayesian Poisson regression models with the full adjustment for a cascade of self-selection factors (including the screening rate and the colonoscopy rate) and the completeness of colonoscopy together with demographic features.ResultsFIT screening (exposed vs unexposed) reduced the incidence of advanced-stage CRC (48.4 vs 75.7 per 100 000) and mortality (20.3 vs 41.3 per 100 000). Statistically significant reductions of both incidence of advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.70) and deaths from CRC (aRR=0.60, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.64) were noted. FIT screening was more effective in reducing distal advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.61, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.64) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.56, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) than proximal advanced CRCs (aRR=0.84, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.92) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.80).ConclusionA large-scale population-based biennial FIT screening demonstrates 34% significant reduction of advanced-stage CRCs and 40% reduction of death from CRC with larger long-term effectiveness in the distal colon than the proximal colon. Our findings provide a strong and consistent evidence-based policy for supporting a sustainable population-based FIT organised service screening worldwide. The disparity of site-specific long-term effectiveness also provides an insight into the remedy for lower effectiveness of FIT screening in the proximal colon.

Objective To classify interval colorectal cancers as false negatives or newly occurring cases in a biennial Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening program and by various interscreening intervals. Setting Data from the Taiwanese biennial colorectal cancer screening program involving FIT from 2004 to 2014 were used to estimate the incidence rate of asymptomatic colorectal cancer and the rate of its subsequent progression to clinical mode. Methods The sensitivity of detecting asymptomatic colorectal cancers excluding newly developed colorectal cancers was compared to the conventional estimate of sensitivity, the complementary FIT interval cancer rate as a percentage of the expected incidence rate ((1-I/E)%). The relative contribution of newly developed or false-negative cases to FIT interval colorectal cancers was estimated by age and interscreening intervals. Results The Taiwanese biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program had a conventional sensitivity estimate of 70.2%. After newly developed colorectal cancers were separated from FIT interval cancers, the ability to detect asymptomatic colorectal cancers increased to 75.5%. FIT interval colorectal cancers from the biennial program mainly resulted from newly developed colorectal cancers (68.8%). The corresponding figures decreased to 61.1% for the annual program but increased to 74.7% for the triennial program. The preponderance of newly developed colorectal cancers among FIT interval cancers was more prominent in screenees aged 50–59 than in those aged 60–69. Conclusions Newly developed colorectal cancers showed a predominance among the FIT interval colorectal cancers in particular in the younger population screened. It is desirable to identify high-risk individuals to offer them a short interscreening interval or advanced detection methods to reduce their odds of developing interval cancer.

Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95–117) in March–June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28–47) in July–September 2020 (p

Background. This study aims at investigating differences in oral cancer (OC) incidence trends between two populations in Taiwan and Thailand. Methods. We used the population-based cancer registry data from Taiwan (1979-2016) and Khon Kaen (KK), Thailand (1985-2016). We performed joinpoint analyses to detect the trend change points for the OC incidence and to quantify the time trends in both sexes and regions. Age-period-cohort curves were plotted to explain the incidence trends. Results. In Taiwan, the estimated annual increases in OC were approximately 6.0% in males, although the increase slowed after 2009, and 2.6% in females. In KK, the OC incidence steadily decreased by -2.5% per year in females, but there was no obvious change in males. A strong period effect observed in those aged 45-69 years in Taiwanese males resulted in a peak incidence in the middle age group. Decreased period and cohort effects were observed in females in KK. Conclusions. Taiwanese males are the predominant sex affected by OC in Taiwan, and the trend has decelerated since 2009. Age, period, and cohort effects were different between males and females in the two regions.

ObjectiveAlthough mass eradication ofHelicobacter pylorihas been proposed as a means to eliminate gastric cancer, its long-term effects remain unclear.DesignMass eradication ofH. pyloriinfection was launched in 2004 and continued until 2018 for a high-risk Taiwanese population aged 30 years or older dwelling on Matsu Islands with prevalentH. pyloriinfection. Test positives for the13C-urea breath test underwent eradication therapy. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mass eradication in reducing two main outcomes, incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer, until the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively.ResultsAfter six rounds of mass screening and eradication, the coverage rate reached 85.5% (6512/7616). The referral rate for treatment was 93.5% (4286/4584). The prevalence rates ofH. pylorifell from 64.2% to 15.0% with reinfection rates of less than 1% per person-year. The presence and severity of atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia also decreased with time. Compared with the historical control period from 1995 to 2003, the effectiveness in reducing gastric cancer incidence and mortality during the chemoprevention period was 53% (95% CI 30% to 69%, pH. pylori.ConclusionPopulation-based eradication ofH. pylorihas significantly reduced gastric cancer incidence with no increase in the likelihood of adverse consequences. A significant reduction in mortality is likely to be achieved with a longer follow-up period.Trial registration numberNCT00155389

Background and aim The reliable method to stratify the gastric cancer risk after Helicobacter pylori eradication remains an elusive goal. Methods Mass eradication of H. pylori began in 2004 in a high-risk population. After eradication, a screening program involving first-stage serological tests (pepsinogen-I, pepsinogen-II, H. pylori immunoglobin G, and gastrin-17) and second-stage endoscopic examination was launched in 2015-2018. Index lesions included gastric cancer or extensive premalignant lesions. We evaluated the performance of the serological tests to "rule in" and "rule out" the risk based on positive and negative likelihood ratios, respectively. The methylation levels of microRNA-124a-3 in the stomach were measured to indicate genetic damage. Results Among 6512 invited subjects, 3895 (59.6%) participated. Both gastrin-17 and pepsinogen tests were normal in 3560 (91.4%) subjects; 206 (5.3%) gastrin-17 and 129 (3.3%) pepsinogen tests were abnormal. Years after eradication, the severity of gastritis had fallen greatly, and extensive premalignant lesions or gastric cancer frequently occurred in newly non-atrophic-appearing mucosa. Pepsinogen testing could moderately predict atrophic gastritis (positive likelihood ratio: 4.11 [95% confidence interval: 2.92-5.77]; negative likelihood ratio: 0.14 [0.10-0.19]). Gastrin-17 was not useful (0.66 and 1.20, respectively). However, pepsinogen testing poorly predicted the index lesions (2.04 [1.21-3.42] and 0.57 [0.34-0.95]). DNA methylation levels in the post-eradication mucosa were more discriminative for predicting index lesions (3.89 [2.32-6.54] and 0.25 [0.15-0.42]). Conclusions After eradication, pepsinogen false-negative results become more frequent because histology is improved but genetic damage may persist. Direct testing for genetic damage offers better discrimination.

To use mammographic tumour features (imaging biomarkers) to classify breast cancer according to its apparent anatomic site of origin in the new era where tumours are found at their nonpalpable, earliest detectable phase.Large format, subgross, three-dimensional histopathologic images of breast cancer subtypes and their corresponding imaging biomarkers were correlated with large format thin section histopathology and long-term patient outcome.This systematic correlation indicates that breast cancers arise from three separate fibroglandular tissue components: the terminal ductal lobular units (TDLUs), the major lactiferous ducts, and in the stem cells of the mesenchyme. The resulting three cancer subgroups have distinctly different clinical, histopathological and mammographic presentations and different long-term outcomes. The relative frequency of these three breast cancer subgroups is approximately 75%, 20% and 5%, respectively. Classification of breast cancers according to their anatomic site of origin, as demonstrated with breast imaging and confirmed by subgross histopathology, correlates closely with the long-term patient outcome.Classification of breast cancers according to their site of origin helps overcome the inconsistencies in the current histopathologic terminology with its ductal-lobular dichotomy. The ability of the imaging biomarkers to determine the site of tumour origin and serve as a prognostic indicator emphasizes the increasingly crucial role of breast imaging in the management of breast cancer. Basing breast cancer management upon anatomically relevant terminology challenges the conventional mindset. Our proposals are based on research results from an unprecedented number of prospectively collected nonpalpable breast cancers diagnosed at their earliest detectable phases and followed up for several decades. This article is a general introduction to a series of forthcoming articles describing in detail the breast malignancies originating from the three sites of origin.

In the face of rapid emerging variants of concern (VOCs) with potential of evading immunity from Beta to Omicron and uneven distribution of different vaccine brands, a mix-match strategy has been considered to enhance immunity. However, whether increasing immunogenicity using such a mix-match can lead to high clinical efficacy, particularly when facing Omicron pandemic, still remains elusive without using the traditional phase 3 trial. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how to evaluate correlates of protection (CoP) of the mix-match vaccination.Data on neutralizing antibody (NtAb) titers and clinical efficacy against Wuhan or D614G strains of homologous ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or mRNA-1273 and heterologous vaccination were extracted from previous studies for demonstration. The reductions in NtAb titers of homologous vaccination against Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were obtained from literatures. A Bayesian inversion method was used to derive CoP from homologous to mix-match vaccine. Findings The predicted efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and mRNA-1273 for Wuhan or D614G strains was 93 % (89 %-97 %). Given 8 ∼ 11-fold, 2 ∼ 5.5-fold, and 32.5 ∼ 36-fold reduction of NtAb for Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants compared with D614G, the corresponding predictive efficacy of the mix-match ranged from 75.63 % to 73.87 %, 84.87 % to 81.25 %, and 0.067 % to 0.059 %, respectively. Interpretations While ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and mRNA-1273 used for demonstrating how to timely evaluate CoP for the mix-match vaccine still provides clinical efficacy against Beta and Delta VOCs but it appears ineffective for Omicron variants, which highlights the urgent need for next generation vaccine against Omicron variant.

The purpose of this research is to elucidate whether metabolic syndrome affects the rate of adoption of a new multiple cancer screening programme, based on the Diffusion of Innovation theory. The time to attend the screening programme, conducted in Keelung, Taiwan, within 10 years was assessed by innovativeness (innovators, early adaptors, early majority, late majority and laggard) using data from 79,303 residents, with the information on metabolic syndrome accrued from routine adult health check-ups. The median time of adopting the programme and the relative rates of early adoption by metabolic syndrome and its severity score were estimated. The results show that the estimated times to adopt the programme ranged from 3 months for innovators to 10 years for the laggard. The rate of early adoption was 34% higher for participants without metabolic syndrome than for those with the disease, and the gradient relationship of disease severity was noted. The adjusted median time to adopt innovativeness was 0.82 years earlier for participants who were disease-free than those with the disease. Meanwhile, the adjusted median time was wider by up to 2.25 years for those with severe disease. The study suggests that innovation should prioritise the potential risk of the metabolic syndrome population.

Background Global transmission from imported cases to domestic cluster infections is often the origin of local community-acquired outbreaks when facing emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Objective We aimed to develop new surveillance metrics for alerting emerging community-acquired outbreaks arising from new strains by monitoring the risk of small domestic cluster infections originating from few imported cases of emerging variants. Methods We used Taiwanese COVID-19 weekly data on imported cases, domestic cluster infections, and community-acquired outbreaks. The study period included the D614G strain in February 2020, the Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) in 2021, and the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 VOCs in April 2022. The number of cases arising from domestic cluster infection caused by imported cases (Dci/Imc) per week was used as the SARS-CoV-2 strain-dependent surveillance metric for alerting local community-acquired outbreaks. Its upper 95% credible interval was used as the alert threshold for guiding the rapid preparedness of containment measures, including nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), testing, and vaccination. The 2 metrics were estimated by using the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain method underpinning the directed acyclic graphic diagram constructed by the extra-Poisson (random-effect) regression model. The proposed model was also used to assess the most likely week lag of imported cases prior to the current week of domestic cluster infections. Results A 1-week lag of imported cases prior to the current week of domestic cluster infections was considered optimal. Both metrics of Dci/Imc and the alert threshold varied with SARS-CoV-2 variants and available containment measures. The estimates were 9.54% and 12.59%, respectively, for D614G and increased to 14.14% and 25.10%, respectively, for the Alpha VOC when only NPIs and testing were available. The corresponding figures were 10.01% and 13.32% for the Delta VOC, but reduced to 4.29% and 5.19% for the Omicron VOC when NPIs, testing, and vaccination were available. The rapid preparedness of containment measures guided by the estimated metrics accounted for the lack of community-acquired outbreaks during the D614G period, the early Alpha VOC period, the Delta VOC period, and the Omicron VOC period between BA.1 and BA.2. In contrast, community-acquired outbreaks of the Alpha VOC in mid-May 2021, Omicron BA.1 VOC in January 2022, and Omicron BA.2 VOC from April 2022 onwards, were indicative of the failure to prepare containment measures guided by the alert threshold. Conclusions We developed new surveillance metrics for estimating the risk of domestic cluster infections with increasing imported cases and its alert threshold for community-acquired infections varying with emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains and the availability of containment measures. The use of new surveillance metrics is important in the rapid preparedness of containment measures for averting large-scale community-acquired outbreaks arising from emerging imported SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Background Cumulative data of case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 varied across countries. A forecasting model generated based on detailed information from three countries during the initial phase of pandemic showed that progression rates from pneumonia to ARDS (PRPA) varied by country and were highly associated with CFR. We aim to elucidate the impact of the PRPA on COVID-19 deaths in different periods of pandemic. Methods We used the country-based, real-time global COVID-19 data through GitHub repository to estimate PRPA on the first period (January to June), second period (July to September), and third period (October to December) in 2020. PRPA was used for predicting COVID-19 deaths and assessing the reduction in deaths in subsequent two periods. Results The estimated PRPA varied widely from 0.38% to 51.36%, with an average of 15.99% in the first period. The PRPA declined to 8.44% and 6.35% in the second and third period. The CFR declined stepwise and was 4.94%, 2.61%, and 1.96%, respectively. Some countries exhibited a decrease in the PRPA from the second to the third period whereas others showed the opposite, particularly where selected viral mutants were prevalent. Overall, the number of observed deaths was lower than that of the predicted deaths in the second and third periods, suggesting an improvement in management of COVID-19 patients. Besides, the degree of improvement depends on the extent of change in PRPA. Conclusion PRPA is a useful indicator to facilitate decision making and assess the improvement of clinical management and medical capacity by forecasting deaths.

Background This study seeks to elucidate the impact of COVID-19 on knowledge, attitude, and infection control behaviors among dentists. Methods Changes in knowledge, attitude, and infection control behaviors reported in 2020 (COVID-19 period) were compared to the historical control of the non-COVID-19 period in 2018. A proportional random sampling method was used to select the study samples from 400 dental institutions. The response rate was 69% in 2018 and 62.8% in 2020. A total of 276 dentists in 2018 and 251 dentists in 2020 responded to this questionnaire. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the associations between factors and recommended infection control practices. Results High rates of correct COVID-19 knowledge (94.76%), fears of being infected with the virus (94%) and use of personal protective equipment (mask, glove and protection gown; 95%) were reported. We found that knowledge regarding environmental infection control, HIV transmission, and the window of HIV transmission were significantly higher in the post-COVID-19 period compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. High compliance rates of wearing mask, gloves and protection were reported. The number of dentists wearing a hair cap and a protective eye mask/face shield during the pandemic significantly increased compared with that noted before the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors associated with the use of a hair cap and an eye mask/face shield differed between the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. The factors associated with compliance regarding environment infection control also differed between the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. Conclusion The significant impact of COVID-19 on the knowledge, attitude, and infection control behaviors among dental care workers was observed in the current study. In particular, the use of hair caps and protective eye mask or face shields as well as environmental disinfection protocols has significantly improved. Trial registration TMU-JIRB: N201804006.

The purpose of this article is to validate the long-term association between initial serum pepsinogen (PG) measurements and subsequent gastric cancer-specific deaths from a long-term longitudinal cohort.Endoscopic surveillance can be effective and efficient in reducing gastric cancer mortality if a biomarker such as serum PG is available to identify high-risk individuals and if the biomarker also is specific to gastric cancer risk.Between 1995 and 1998, a gastric cancer-screening program was conducted in a high-risk population: The first stage involved PG testing, and the second stage involved upper endoscopy. The outcome was gastric cancer death, which was monitored until December 31, 2010; results were expressed as the hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Other causes of death were used as comparators.Among participants (n=3514) aged ≥30 years, 1682 (47.9%) were screened to determine serum PG levels. After 16 years of follow-up, 14 deaths from gastric cancer were documented. Multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, and Helicobacter pylori serological positivity showed that PG-I30 μg/L and PG-I30 μg/L or PG-I/II ratio3 were significantly associated with the risk of gastric cancer death (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.11-9.61 and HR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.18-10.12, respectively). In contrast, there were no significant associations between PG and other causes of death, including neoplastic and non-neoplastic diseases.This long-term cohort study shows the usefulness of PG measurement as a biomarker that is specific to the risk of gastric cancer death.

Objective To investigate the risk for second primary cancer in the hypopharynx and esophagus (SPC-HE) among individuals with an initial oral/oropharyngeal cancer. Materials and methods Mass screening data from Taiwan (2004-2009) included individuals who were ≥18 years old and smoked cigarettes and/or chewed betel quid. Occurrence of SPC-HE was monitored until December 31, 2014. Results were expressed as adjusted relative risk (aRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results One hundred and fifty-eight out of 4,494 subjects with oral cancer developed SPC-HE (incidence rate: 6.47 per 1,000 person-years). Relative to patients with primary cancers in the lip, the risk of an SPC-HE was higher in patients with primary cancers in oropharynx (aRR: 19.98, 95% CI: 4.72-84.55), floor of mouth (aRR: 12.13, 95% CI: 2.67-55.15), and hard palate (aRR: 7.31, 95% CI: 1.65-32.37), but not in patients with cancers in tongue (aRR: 3.67, 95% CI: 0.89-15.17) or gum (aRR: 3.99, 95% CI: 0.92-17.35). Regression analyses also showed the risk of an SPC-HE was greater in alcohol drinkers than those who did not (aRR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.10-2.48). Conclusions Compared with the initial cancer in the lip, patients with a cancer in the oropharynx, floor of mouth, and hard palate had a higher risk for the SPC-HE.

ObjectivesPopulation-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs that use a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) are often faced with a noncompliance issue and its subsequent waiting time (WT) for those FIT positives complying with confirmatory diagnosis. We aimed to identify factors associated with both of the correlated problems in the same model.MethodsA total of 294,469 subjects, either with positive FIT test results or having a family history, collected from 2004 to 2013 were enrolled for analysis. We applied a hurdle Poisson regression model to accommodate the hurdle of compliance and also its related WT for undergoing colonoscopy while assessing factors responsible for the mixture of the two outcomes.ResultsThe effect on compliance and WT varied with contextual factors, such as geographic areas, type of screening units, and level of urbanization. The hurdle score, representing the risk score in association with noncompliance, and the WT score, reflecting the rate of taking colonoscopy, were used to classify subjects into each of three groups representing the degree of compliance and the level of health awareness.ConclusionOur model was not only successfully applied to evaluating factors associated with the compliance and the WT distribution, but also developed into a useful assessment model for stratifying the risk and predicting whether and when screenees comply with the procedure of receiving confirmatory diagnosis given contextual factors and individual characteristics.

Objectives To elucidate the risk of malignant transformation to invasive oral cancer by subtypes of oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMD) and to examine the independent effects of risk factors, particularly alcohol drinking, by subtype based on a nationwide oral cancer screening program targeting at general population with habits of smoking and/or betel quids chewing. Materials and methods The total of 8501 subjects diagnosed as different subtypes of OPMDs from the Taiwanese screening program between 2004 and 2009 were followed up over time to ascertain the occurrence of invasive oral cancer. The hazard ratios of malignant transformation were estimated by using Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results The overall malignant rate (per 1000 person-years) to oral cancer was 8.4 (407 incident cases with an average of 5.7 years of follow-up). The highest rate was noted in exophytic verrucous hyperplasia (33), followed by erythroplakia (11.8), erythroleukoplakia (10.7), oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) (8.6), and leukoplakia (5.4). After adjusting for confounders, exophytic verrucous hyperplasia still had a 5.69 (4.47–7.24) times risk compared with leukoplakia. The corresponding figures for erythroplakia, erythroleukoplakia, and OSF were 2.25 (1.31–3.89), 2.00 (1.13–3.53), and 1.63 (1.29–2.06), respectively. Alcohol drinking elevated the overall risk of malignant transformation by 23% (1–52% and also triggered a higher risk in OSF (aHR = 1.62 (1.06–2.47)). The higher risk attributed to betel quids chewing was noted for exophytic verrucous hyperplasia (aHR = 4.23 (1.55–11.55)). Conclusions The risk of malignant transformation to oral cancer varied with the subtypes of OPMD and was elevated in OSF and verrucous hyperplasia attributed to alcohol drinking and betel quids, respectively.

BACKGROUND: As Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to the unprecedent large-scale repeated surges of epidemics worldwide since the end of 2019, data-driven analysis to look into the duration and case load of each episode of outbreak worldwide has been motivated. METHODS: Using open data repository with daily infected, recovered and death cases in the period between March 2020 and April 2021, a descriptive analysis was performed. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery model was used to estimate the effective productive number (Rt). The duration taken from Rt > 1 to Rt

The association between osteoporosis and periodontal disease (PD) has been revealed by previous studies, but there have been few studies on the association in younger adults. We enrolled a total of 7298 adults aged 40 to 44 who underwent PD screening between 2003 and 2008. Data on quantitative ultrasound for the measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) were collected for the diagnostic criteria of osteopenia and osteoporosis. The Community Periodontal Index (CPI) was measured for defining PD. A multiple logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of low bone mass on the risk of PD. Of 7298 enrollees, 31% had periodontal pockets &gt, 3 mm, 36.2% had osteopenia, and 2.1% had osteoporosis. The 39.8% of PD prevalence was high in adults with osteoporosis, followed by 33.3% in osteopenia. A negative association was found between BMD and CPI value (p &lt, 0.0001). Low bone mass was associated with the risk of PD (adjusted OR: 1.13, 95% CI:1.02–1.26) after adjusting the confounding factors, including age, gender, education level, overweight, smoking status, past history of osteoporosis, and diabetes mellitus. An association between BMD and PD among young adults was found. An intervention program for the prevention of PD and osteoporosis could be considered starting in young adults.

Background Dental students have encountered changes in the teaching format amid the SARS CoV-2 pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the attitudes of dental students of one medical university toward online courses and compare them with those of non-dental students amid the SARS CoV-2 pandemic. Methods A cross-sectional survey with a self-report online questionnaire was conducted at the medical university in May 2020 in Taipei. Students from the School of Dentistry, School of Dental Technology, and School of Oral Hygiene Study were enrolled in our survey. Results In total, 473 students responded to the survey, 318 (67.2%) of whom were dental students. Overall, 366 (77%) students agreed with the change to online learning. Only 10.4% of students thought that dental professional courses with a laboratory format could be changed to online courses. Dental students were significantly more worried than non-dental students about being infected with COVID-19 and about the COVID-19 pandemic continuing. Conclusions In conclusion, changing to online learning seems to be perceived as feasible by students. However, more discussion about changing dental professional courses with a laboratory format to online courses considering the attitudes from students is needed.

Background: Previously, the risk of death from breast cancer was analyzed for women participating versus those not participating in the last screening examination before breast cancer diagnosis. Consecutive attendance patterns may further refine estimates. Purpose: To estimate the effect of participation in successive mammographic screening examinations on breast cancer mortality. Materials and Methods: Participation data for Swedish women eligible for screening mammography in nine counties from 1992 to 2016 were linked with data from registries and regional cancer centers for breast cancer diagnosis, cause, and date of death (Uppsala University ethics committee registration number: 2017/147). Incidence-based breast cancer mortality was calculated by whether the women had participated in the most recent screening examination prior to diagnosis only (intermittent participants), the penultimate screening examination only (lapsed participants), both examinations (serial participants), or neither examination (serial nonparticipants). Rates were analyzed with Poisson regression. We also analyzed incidence of breast cancers proving fatal within 10 years. Results: Data were available for a total average population of 549 091 women (average age, 58.9 years +/- 6.7 [standard deviation]). The numbers of participants in the four groups were as follows: serial participants, 392 135; intermittent participants, 41 746; lapsed participants, 30 945; and serial nonparticipants, 84 265. Serial participants had a 49% lower risk of breast cancer mortality (relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.55; P < .001) and a 50% lower risk of death from breast cancer within 10 years of diagnosis (RR, 0.50; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.55; P < .001) than serial nonparticipants. Lapsed and intermittent participants had a smaller reduction. Serial participants had significantly lower risk of both outcomes than lapsed or intermittent participants. Analyses correcting for potential biases made little difference to the results. Conclusion: Women participating in the last two breast cancer screening examinations prior to breast cancer diagnosis had the largest reduction in breast cancer death. Missing either one of the last two examinations conferred a significantly higher risk. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Evaluating the performance of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test in population-based screening with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve often neglects the time dimension. Asymptomatic cases with negative PSA test would have been missed if sojourn time is not taken into account to allow for cases surfacing into the clinical phase. Data included 20,796 men with PSA test at the first screening round was used from population-based Finnish prostate cancer screening trial during 1996–1999. Cancers detected at the first screen, together with interval cancers ascertained during 4-year follow-up were expediently used to estimate sensitivity and specificity. A sojourn-time-corrected model was applied to estimating the possible false negative cases for those with PSA

Rationale & Objective Hemodialysis facilities are high-risk environments for hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eliminating HCV from all dialysis facilities in a community may be achieved more effectively under a collaborative care model. Study Design Quality improvement study of multidisciplinary collaborative care teams including nephrologists, gastroenterologists and public health practitioners. Setting & Participants All dialysis patients in the Changhua county of Taiwan were treated using an inter-disciplinary collaborative care model implemented within a broader Changhua-Integrated Program to Stop HCV Infection (CHIPS-C). Quality Improvement Activities Provision of an HCV care cascade to fill three gaps including screening and testing, diagnosis, and universal direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment implemented by collaborating teams of dialysis practitioners and gastroenterologists working under auspices of Changhua Public Health Bureau. Outcomes Outcome measures included quality indicators pertaining to six steps in HCV care ranging from HCV screening to complete treatment and cure from treatment with DAA Analytical Approach A descriptive analysis. Results A total of 3657 patients from 31 dialysis facilities were enrolled. All patients completed HCV screening. The DAA treatment initiation rate and completion rate were 88.9% and 94.0%, respectively. The collaborative care model achieved a cure rate of 96.0% (166/173). No virologic failure occurred. The cumulative treatment ratios for patients with chronic HCV infection increased from 5.3% before interferon-based therapy (2017) to 25.6% after restricted provision of DAA (2017-2018) and then to 89.1% after universal access to DAA (2019). Limitations Unclear impact of this collaborative care program on incident dialysis patients entering dialysis facilities each year and on patients with earlier stages of chronic kidney disease. Conclusions A collaborative care model in Taiwan increased the rates of diagnosis and treatment for HCV in dialysis facilities to levels near those established by the World Health Organization.

Background Implementing and lifting social distancing (LSD) is an urgent global issue during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when the travel ban is lifted to revive international businesses and economies. However, when and whether LSD can be considered is subject to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the recovery rate, and the case-fatality rate. It is imperative to provide real-time assessment of three factors to guide LSD. Objective A simple LSD index was developed for health decision makers to do real-time assessment of COVID-19 at the global, country, region, and community level. Methods Data on the retrospective cohort of 186 countries with three factors were retrieved from a publicly available repository from January to early July. A simple index for guiding LSD was measured by the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases and recoveries, and the case-fatality rate was envisaged. If the LSD index was less than 1, LSD can be considered. The dynamic changes of the COVID-19 pandemic were evaluated to assess whether and when health decision makers allowed for LSD and when to reimplement social distancing after resurgences of the epidemic. Results After large-scale outbreaks in a few countries before mid-March (prepandemic phase), the global weekly LSD index peaked at 4.27 in March and lasted until mid-June (pandemic phase), during which most countries were affected and needed to take various social distancing measures. Since, the value of LSD has gradually declined to 0.99 on July 5 (postpandemic phase), at which 64.7% (120/186) of countries and regions had an LSD Conclusions This simple LSD index provides a quantitative assessment of whether and when to ease or implement social distancing to provide advice for health decision makers and travelers.

Background The aim of the current study was to report a single-institution experience using breast-conserving surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT), focusing on the association between microscopic resection margin status and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Methods Our institutional prospectively maintained database was reviewed to identify patients who were treated with NACT between January 2008 and April 2018. Results Among the main partial mastectomy specimens available for analysis (n = 161), 28 had margins 2 mm. LRR occurred in 16 patients (9.9%) and distant metastases were detected in 27 (16.8%) patients. There was no significant difference in the LRR between the > 2 mm margin group with a 60-month cumulative survival of 85.2% compared with 76.2% for the ≤2 mm group (P = 0.335) in the Kaplan-Meier analysis. When we stratified patients by margin widths of ≥1 mm or P = 0.161) with a 60-month cumulative LRR-free survival of 84.9% compared with 69.5% for the P = 0.150). Conclusions In the absence of multiple scattered microscopic tumour foci, a negative margin of no ink on tumour maybe sufficient for stage I–III invasive breast cancer treated with NACT and breast-conserving surgery.

Background Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-DBS) is an effective therapy for Parkinson disease (PD). However, cost-effectiveness analysis is required because most patients are older adults and decision makers must therefore consider whether the long-term effectiveness outweighs the initial cost. Methods A Markov decision model was constructed on the basis of a societal perspective. The Hoehn and Yahr scale and Unified PD Rating Scale motor score were used in the polytomous logistic regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to initiate the probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. Results The life-year gained (LYG) in the STN-DBS group and medication group was, respectively, 2.937 and 2.632 years at the 3-year follow-up and 7.417 and 5.971 years at the 10-year follow-up. The quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in the STN-DBS and medication groups was, respectively, 1.739 and 1.220 at the 3-year follow-up and 4.189 and 2.88 at the 10-year follow-up. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of STN-DBS compared with medication was $147,065 per LYG and $123,436 per QALY gained at the 3-year follow-up and $36,833 and $69,033 at the 10-year follow-up, respectively. STN-DBS is an optimal strategy when the willingness to pay is $150,000 per LYG and over $90,000 per QALY gained in 3 years and when the willingness to pay is over $38,000 per LYG and over $41,000 per QALY gained in 10 years. Conclusions This study provided data comparing STN-DBS and medical treatment for PD with respect to LYG and QALY gained. STN-DBS was more cost-effective in terms of LYG and QALY gained according to the current gross domestic product of Taiwan.

Background It is of paramount importance to evaluate the impact of participation in organized mammography service screening independently from changes in breast cancer treatment. This can be done by measuring the incidence of fatal breast cancer, which is based on the date of diagnosis and not on the date of death. Methods Among 549,091 women, covering approximately 30% of the Swedish screening‐eligible population, the authors calculated the incidence rates of 2473 breast cancers that were fatal within 10 years after diagnosis and the incidence rates of 9737 advanced breast cancers. Data regarding each breast cancer diagnosis and the cause and date of death of each breast cancer case were gathered from national Swedish registries. Tumor characteristics were collected from regional cancer centers. Aggregated data concerning invitation and participation were provided by Sectra Medical Systems AB. Incidence rates were analyzed using Poisson regression. Results Women who participated in mammography screening had a statistically significant 41% reduction in their risk of dying of breast cancer within 10 years (relative risk, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.51‐0.68 [P, Substantial and significant reductions in the incidence rates of fatal breast cancer and advanced breast cancer with 10 years of follow‐up are observed in this analysis of greater than one‐half million Swedish women participating and not participating in breast cancer screening. These comparisons are contemporaneous, and thus are not influenced by changes in therapeutic regimens.

Objectives To explain apparent differences among mammography screening services in Sweden using individual data on participation in screening and with breast cancer–specific survival as an outcome. Methods We analysed breast cancer survival data from the Swedish Cancer Register on breast cancer cases from nine Swedish counties diagnosed in women eligible for screening. Data were available on 38,278 breast cancers diagnosed and 4312 breast cancer deaths. Survival to death from breast cancer was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier estimate, for all cases in each county, and separately for cases of women participating and not participating in their last invitation to screening. Formal statistical comparisons of survival were made using proportional hazards regression. Results All counties showed a reduction in the hazard of breast cancer death with participation in screening, but the reductions for individual counties varied substantially, ranging from 51% (95% confidence interval 46–55%) to 81% (95% confidence interval 74–85%). Survival rates in nonparticipating women ranged from 53% (95% confidence interval 40–65%) to 74% (95% confidence interval 72–77%), while the corresponding survival in women participating in screening varied from 80% (95% confidence interval 77–84%) to 86% (95% confidence interval 83–88%), a considerably narrower range. Conclusions Differences among counties in the effect of screening on breast cancer outcomes were mainly due to variation in survival in women not participating in screening. Screening conferred similarly high survival rates in all counties. This indicates that the performance of screening services was similar across counties and that detection and treatment of breast cancer in early-stage reduces inequalities in breast cancer outcome.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS The population-based colorectal cancer screening program with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) from the inaugural period to the rolling-out period may create a higher demand for colonoscopies, but such a change has not been quantified. We intended to assess the change in the compliance rate and the waiting time (WT) for a colonoscopy and the associated geographic and institutional variations across the 2 periods. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the Taiwanese nationwide colorectal cancer screening program were analyzed. The data included a total of 46,235 FIT-positive cases of 1,258,560 tests in the inaugural period (2004 to 2009) and 270,700 FIT-positive cases of 3,723,789 tests in the rolling-out period (2010 to 2013). The compliance rate and WT for colonoscopy after positive FIT was ascertained and compared between the 2 periods. RESULTS The rolling-out period resulted in a decline of 16.0% for compliance rate and yielded an additional 1,778,499 waiting days with variation across geography and institution. After adjusting for relevant factors, a decrease in compliance rate by 8.5% and an increase of 714,648 waiting days were still noted. In the rolling-out period, a remarkable decline in compliance rate by 9.8% was found in middle Taiwan, and the longest WT (1,260,109 d) was observed in southern Taiwan. Screening at public health centers led to a 19% decrease in compliance rate and an increase of 2,546,746 waiting days. CONCLUSIONS The decrease in compliance rate and an increase in the WT with variation across geography and institution resulting from the increased volume of rolling-out FIT screening provide an insight into optimal resource allocation of clinical capacity for colonoscopy.

Objectives The present study was to investigate the association between fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration and oral cancer and its precursor, oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMD). Methods We used a population-based longitudinal cohort study data based on both Taiwanese nationwide oral and colorectal cancer screening programs implemented between 2004 and 2009. The total of 235,234 smokers and/or betel-quid chewers aged 50 to 69 years free of oral cancer and OPMD at entry were followed up over time to quantify the association between baseline f-Hb concentration on newly diagnosed oral cancer and OPMD. Results The risk of OPMD increased with baseline f-Hb in a dose manner, yielding a statistically significant elevated risk of developing OPMD in parallel with the incremental concentration of f-Hb (adjusted hazard ratios = 0.99, 1,11, 1,07, 1,57, and 1,63 for f-Hb categories of 1-9, 10-19, 20-49, 50-89, and ≥90 µg Hb/g, respectively, as compared with the reference group (low and undetectable f-Hb concentrations)) However, there was lacking of a statistical significance for the corresponding association regarding the risk of oral cancer, which is possibly due to sparse cases given a shorter follow-up time. Conclusion We discovered that f-Hb concentration was positively related to the risk of OPMD. f-Hb can be used as a biomarker for early detection of OPMD.

Background To evaluate the time trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) affected by a Nationwide Colorectal Cancer Screening (NCCS) programme with biennial faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and Nationwide Healthcare Insurance (NHI). Methods Data from the national registries on cancer and death in Taiwan were separated into years 1984–1993, 1994–2003 and 2004–2013 based on the implementations of NHI (starting 1995) and NCCS (starting 2004). The adult population was divided into three age groups (young, 30–49; middle-aged, 50–69; and old, 70–84 years); only the middle-aged were eligible for NCCS. Crude and adjusted effects of NCCS and NHI were quantified by percentage change and 95% confidence interval (CI) with respect to CRC mortality, according to the attributions from incidence and survival. Results Within 335 million person-years of follow-up, 204 362 incident CRCs and 80 771 CRC-related deaths were identified. Increasing mortality trends were noted for 1994–2003 (post-NHI) vs 1984–1993 due to remarkable increasing incidence trends that could not be offset by improved survival as a result of NHI. During 2004–13 (post-NCCS), mortality continued to increase by 15% (95% CI: 10–21%) in young adults (30–49 years) and 8% (95% CI: 6–11%) in older adults (70–84 years), whereas middle-aged adults (50–69 years) had a reduction of 7% (95% CI: 5–9%) due to a remarkable stage shift and subsequent improvement in survival. In the middle-aged adults, increased incidence was less but survival improvement was more compared with other age groups. Conclusions Whereas universal healthcare insurance led to improvement in CRC survival, FIT-based screening has made an even greater contribution to reducing CRC mortality.

The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet.A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models.Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P0.05).An improvement in the updated prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected regular public health interventions including population-based cancer screening. Impacts of such screening delays on the changes in structure and screening process and the resultant long-term outcomes are unknown. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic framework to assess theses impacts related to these components of quality. Using population-based cancer screening with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an illustration, the main analysis was to assess how various scenarios of screening delays were associated with the capacity for primary screening and full time equivalent (FTE) for colonoscopy and impact long-term outcomes based on a Markov decision tree model on population level. The second analysis was to quantify how the extent of COVID-19 epidemic measured by social distancing index affected capacity and FTE that were translated to delays with an exponential relationship. COVID-19 epidemic led to 25%, 29%, 34%, and 39% statistically significantly incremental risks of late cancer for the delays of 0.5-year, 1-year,1.5-year, and 2-year, respectively compared with regular biennial FIT screening. The corresponding statistically findings of four delayed schedules for death from colorectal cancer (CRC) were 26%, 28%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. The higher social distancing index led to a lower capacity of uptake screening and a larger reduction of FTE, resulting in longer screening delay and longer waiting time, which further impacted long-term outcomes as above. In summary, a systematic modelling approach was developed for demonstrating the strong impact of screening delays caused by COVID-19 epidemic on long-term outcomes illustrated with a Taiwan population-based FIT screening of CRC.

This community-based study aimed to elucidate whether there is a gender difference in the effect of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its individual components on an elevated risk for incident colorectal adenoma. A prospective cohort study was conducted by enrolling 59,767 subjects aged 40 years or older between 2001 and 2009 in Keelung, Taiwan, to test this hypothesis, excluding those with a prior history of colorectal cancer and those with colorectal cancer diagnosed at the first screening. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the effect of MetS in terms of a dichotomous classification, each individual component and the number of components for males and females. Colorectal adenoma was present in 2.7% (n = 652) of male participants and 1.1% (n = 403) of female participants. The prevalence rate of MetS was 26.7% and 23.3% for males and females, respectively. The effect of MetS on colorectal adenoma was statistically significant and similar for the 2 genders, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.33 (95% CI: 1.13–1.58) in males and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.06–1.66) in females after adjustment for confounders. However, MetS led to higher risk of advanced colorectal adenoma in men than in women. Regarding the effect of each component of MetS on colorectal adenoma, abnormal waist circumference and hypertriglyceridemia led to an elevated risk of colorectal adenoma in both genders. A rising risk of colorectal adenoma among females was noted in those with a moderately higher level of glycemia (100–125 mg/dL, aHR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.12–1.85). Hypertriglyceridemia and high blood pressure were associated with an increased risk of advance colorectal adenoma in males. Both male and female subjects with MetS had a higher risk of colorectal adenoma. The contributions from individual components of MetS varied by gender. These findings suggest that the possible risk reduction of colorectal adenoma through metabolic syndrome-based lifestyle modifications may differ between genders.

Colorectal cancer(CRC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies in the Asia-Pacific region, and many countries in this region have launched population CRC service screening. In this study, CRC screening key indicators, including the FIT(fecal immunochemical test) screening rate (or participation rate) and the rate of undergoing colonoscopy after positive FIT in 2019 and 2020, were surveyed in individual countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The impact of the pandemic on the effectiveness of CRC screening was simulated given different screening rates and colonoscopy rates and assuming the pandemic would persist or remain poorly controlled for a long period of time, using the empirical data from the Taiwanese program and the CRC natural history model. During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the programs in this region were affected, but to different extents, which was largely influenced by the severity of the local pandemic. Most of the programs continued screening services in 2020, although a temporary pause occurred in some countries. The modeling study revealed that prolonged pauses of screening led to 6% lower effectiveness in reducing CRC mortality. Screening organizers should coordinate with health authorities to elaborate on addressing screening backlogs, setting priorities for screening, and applying modern technologies to overcome potential obstacles. Many novel approaches that were developed and applied during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the risk-stratified approach that takes into account personal CRC risk and the local epidemic status, as well as new digital technologies, are expected to play important roles in CRC screening in the future.

Objectives We evaluated whether and how the effects of risk factors on periodontal disease (PD) were modified by measurement errors using community periodontal index (CPI) and loss attachment (LA) in the community‐based survey. Methods A pilot validation study was performed to estimate the rates of false negative and false positive for both CPI and LA in 31 subjects from different regions using measurements from 12 well‐trained dentists and a senior periodontist as a gold standard. Afterward, a Taiwanese nationwide survey was conducted by enrolling 3,860 participants to estimate the effect of each risk factor on PD calibrated with both sensitivity and specificity of two indices. Results The values obtained for the sensitivity to false‐positive ratio for CPI ranged widely from 1.12 to 7.71, indicating regional variation in both errors. The calibrated adjusted odds ratio for smoking vs non‐smoking was higher than the uncalibrated odds ratio for PD defined by CPI (2.75 (2.01, 3.77) vs 2.02 (1.63, 2.52)) and LA (3.85 (2.44, 6.13) vs 1.93 (1.47, 2.54)) scores. Similar underestimation was noted for other risk factors. Conclusion The effects of risk factors on PD measured using CPI and LA in a large population‐based survey were underestimated without correcting for measurement errors.

Objective Because colorectal cancer (CRC) has a long natural history, estimating the effectiveness of CRC screening programmes requires long-term follow-up. As an alternative, we here demonstrate the use of a temporal multi-state natural history model to predict the effectiveness of CRC screening. Methods In the Finnish population-based biennial CRC screening programme using faecal occult blood tests (FOBT), which was conducted in a randomised health services study, we estimated the pre-clinical incidence, the mean sojourn time (MST), and the sensitivity of FOBT using a Markov model to analyse data from 2004 to 2007. These estimates were applied to predict, through simulation, the effects of five rounds of screening on the relative rate of reducing advanced CRC with 6 years of follow-up, and on the reduction in mortality with 10 years of follow-up, in a cohort of 500,000 subjects aged 60 to 69. Results For localised and non-localised CRC, respectively, the MST was 2.06 and 1.36 years and the sensitivity estimates were 65.12% and 73.70%. The predicted relative risk of non-localised CRC and death from CRC in the screened compared with the control population was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79–0.98) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85–1.02), respectively. Conclusion Based on the preliminary results of the Finnish CRC screening programme, our model predicted a 9% reduction in CRC mortality and a 14% reduction in advanced CRC.

(1) Background: A simulation approach for prostate cancer (PrCa) with a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test incorporating genetic information provides a new avenue for the development of personalized screening for PrCa. Going by the evidence-based principle, we use the simulation method to evaluate the effectiveness of mortality reduction resulting from PSA screening and its utilization using a personalized screening regime as opposed to a universal screening program. (2) Methods: A six-state (normal, over-detected, low-grade, and high-grade PrCa in pre-clinical phase, and low-grade and high-grade PrCa in clinical phase) Markov model with genetic and PSA information was developed after a systematic review of genetic variant studies and dose-dependent PSA studies. This gene‒PSA-guided model was used for personalized risk assessment and risk stratification. A computer-based simulated randomized controlled trial was designed to estimate the reduction of mortality achieved by three different screening methods, personalized screening, universal screening, and a non-screening group. (3) Results: The effectiveness of PrCa mortality reduction for a personalized screening program compared to a non-screening group (22% (9%‒33%)) was similar to that noted in the universal screening group (20% (7%‒21%). However, a personalized screening program could dispense with 26% of unnecessary PSA testing, and avoid over-detection by 2%. (4) Conclusions: Gene‒PSA-guided personalized screening for PrCa leads to fewer unnecessary PSA tests without compromising the benefits of mortality reduction (as happens with the universal screening program).

Background: We aimed to assess the effect of intraocular pressure (IOP) on incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) using a longitudinal follow-up of screening cohort in contrast to most of prev...

Background Although fecal hemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) was highly associated with the risk of colorectal neoplasms, current studies on this subject are hampered by skewedness of the data and the ordinal property of f-Hb has not been well studied yet. Our aim was to develop a quantile-based method to estimate adjusted percentiles (median) of fecal hemoglobin concentration and their derived prediction for the risk of multistage outcomes of colorectal disease. Methods We used a 6-year follow-up cohort of Taiwanese nationwide colorectal screening program with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) to obtain fecal hemoglobin concentration and applied accelerated failure time multi-variable analyses to make the comparison of adjusted median and other percentitles of fecal hemoglobin across four categories of colorectal carcinogenesis. We then predicted the risk of colorectal neoplasms on the basis of the corresponding percentile values by using accelerated failure time model with Bayesian inversion method. Results The adjusted median fecal hemoglobin concentration of nonadvanced adenoma, advanced adenoma, and colorectal cancer were 57, 82, and 163 μg/g feces as opposed to 0 μg/g feces for the normal group. At 90 μg/g of f-Hb, the highly suspected cut-off for colorectal disease, the risks were 17% for non-advanced adenoma, 6% for advanced adenoma, and 9% for CRC. Life-time risks of each colorectal neoplasm were derived by percentiles of fecal hemoglobin concentration. Conclusion Covariate-adjusted risk stratification for multistage outcomes of colorectal neoplasia were provided by using the quantiles of fecal hemoglobin concentration, yielding the estimated life-time risks of 25th to 75th quantitles, ranging from 0.5 to 44% for colorectal cancer, 0.2 to 46% for non-advanced adenoma, and 0.1 to 20% for advanced adenoma. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12911-019-0812-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objective This study aimed to evaluate compliance with guidelines on hand hygiene by examining five handwashing categories in postgraduate year (PGY) dentists at a university teaching hospital and to evaluate the accuracy rates of handwashing. Methods Through direct observation, trained PGY dentists were monitored throughout their daily care routine of before contact with patients, before using an instrument, after contact with patients, upon direct exposure to patients’ fluids, and while touching the patients’ surrounding area. Hand hygiene opportunities were considered complete in each category. A total of 16,597 hand hygiene opportunities across 37 individuals were observed from July to October 2012 and from September to October 2013. Results The overall handwashing compliance rate was 34.7%. The handwashing compliance rate was higher during work in oral surgery services (92.8%) than during work in general clinical practice (34.2%). The accuracy rate of handwashing was also higher during work in oral surgery services (87.5%) than during work in general clinical practice (51.0%). Similar results were obtained across all five handwashing categories. Conclusions Handwashing compliance and accuracy rates are low in PGY dentists. More education and continuous monitoring are suggested to improve handwashing compliance, as well as the correct handwashing procedures for dentists.

The gradient relationship between mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and mortality due to ischemic vascular disease has not been researched using a large-scale population-based study. This study evaluated the association between MCV and death attributable to cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular disease (CAD) in a large population- and community-based Taiwanese cohort. A longitudinal study with a 9-year follow-up was conducted to evaluate individuals aged 20 years or older who had participated in the Keelung (the northernmost city in Taiwan) community-based integrated screening (abbreviated as KCIS) program since September 1999. The mortality rates associated with CVD and CAD were classified across a range of different MCV levels. Increased MCV levels were associated with an increased risk of CVD/CAD-related death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.42, trend test P = 0.0119). Marginally statistically significant associations were noted for specific deaths from ischemic heart disease (aHR = 1.44, trend test P = 0.0992) and cerebral ischemic stroke (aHR = 1.66, trend test P = 0.0667), respectively, but no significant gradient relationship was noted for death from cerebral hemorrhage stroke (aHR = 1.23, trend test, P = 0.6278). A gradient relationship between baseline MCV level and CVD/CAD-related death was noted, but whether such gradient relationships existed for two specific deaths and how these relationships may be confounded by extraneous factors that were not considered here should be investigated in the future.

OBJECTIVE: The long-term impact of natural disasters on suicide in general population and survivors remains uncertain. The present report examined the direction and the length of the influence of an earthquake over suicide across age groups. METHOD: We used an interrupted time-series design with non-equivalent no-treatment group to evaluate post-earthquake changes in suicide rates by the standardized mortality ratio. RESULTS: The time trend changes in suicide rates before and after the earthquake were similar for males and females but different between senior and junior age groups. Gender-specific relative ratios were 0.85 (95%CI: 0.81-0.90) for males and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.86) for females. Age-gender-stratified relative ratios were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.53-0.70) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.64-0.75) for males and females aged less than 45 years, respectively. Although the overall suicide mortality increased after the earthquake, the relative suicide risk ratio decreased 31-39% for those aged less than 45 years, which persisted for nearly 10 years after earthquake. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated that a severe earthquake resulted in a significant decrease in standardized suicide mortality ratios in exposed areas for 10 years compared to unexposed area, particularly in a younger population.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Language: en

Objectives To summarize debate and research in the Swedish Two-County Trial of mammographic screening on key issues of trial design, endpoint evaluation, and overdiagnosis, and from these to infer promising directions for the future. Methods A cluster-randomized controlled trial of the offer of breast cancer screening in Sweden, with a single screen of the control group at the end of the screening phase forms the setting for a historical review of investigations and debate on issues of design, analysis, and interpretation of results of the trial. Results There has been considerable commentary on the closure screen of the control group, ascertainment of cause of death, and cluster randomization. The issues raised were researched in detail and the main questions answered in publications between 1989 and 2003. Overdiagnosis issues still remain, but methods of estimation taking full account of lead time and of non-screening influences on incidence (taking place mainly before 2005) suggest that it is a minor phenomenon. Conclusion Despite resolution of issues relating to this trial in peer-reviewed publications dating from years, or even decades ago, issues that already have been addressed continue to be raised. We suggest that it would be more profitable to concentrate efforts on current research issues in breast cancer diagnosis, treatment, and prevention.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of two population-based hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography (AUS).In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per life-year gained with a 3% annual discount rate.The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening.Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval.

Objectives To quantify the effect of oral potentially malignant disorder (OPMD) subtypes on mortality from oral cancer and type 2 diabetes among areca nut chewers and/or cigarette smokers. Materials and methods A retrospective cohort design was devised to follow 14,749 men attending community-based screening program for oral cancer between 1998 and 2000 and followed until 2010. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to assess the effect of OPMD on death. Results A total of 1,291(8.75%) patients were detected as OPMD. Among those free of T2DM at baseline, the elevated risk for death from T2DM was noted for OSF (aHR = 3.62, 95% CI: 1.25-10.51) and erythroplakia (aHR = 5.01, 95% CI: 1.17-21.45). The elevated risk for all-cause death for OPMD was mainly explained by deaths from oral cancer and T2DM but not other causes of death. Conclusions Oral potentially malignant disorder, particularly OSF and erythroplakia, in male cigarette smokers and/or areca nut chewers led to an incremental elevated risk of T2DM mortality in the way of being distal to the occurrence of T2DM, implying that early detection and prevention of OPMD may not only reduce oral cancer mortality but also result in the reduction of T2DM mortality.