1. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts critical illness patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in the early stage
- Author
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Yanli Xu, Zhihai Chen, Jingyuan Liu, Chuansheng Li, Bing Han, Guiqin Zhou, Jianbo Tan, Haofeng Xiong, Lin Pu, Lin Wang, Xiaojing Wang, Yanbin Wang, Meihua Song, Pan Xiang, Yao Liu, Li Yang, Ben Li, Wei Zhang, Ting Zhang, Ming Zhang, Xianbo Wang, and Rui Song
- Subjects
Male ,0301 basic medicine ,Neutrophils ,lcsh:Medicine ,Severity of Illness Index ,law.invention ,Cohort Studies ,Leukocyte Count ,0302 clinical medicine ,law ,Lymphocytes ,Prospective Studies ,Child ,Prospective cohort study ,Aged, 80 and over ,SARS-CoV ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Prognosis ,Intensive care unit ,Child, Preschool ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,2019-nCoV ,Disease Progression ,Female ,Coronavirus Infections ,Cohort study ,Adult ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,Critical Illness ,Pneumonia, Viral ,History, 21st Century ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,NLR ,Betacoronavirus ,Young Adult ,COVID-19 ,Model ,03 medical and health sciences ,Internal medicine ,Severity of illness ,medicine ,Humans ,Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ,Risk factor ,Pandemics ,Aged ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,Research ,fungi ,lcsh:R ,Infant ,Nomogram ,Confidence interval ,030104 developmental biology ,business - Abstract
Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. Methods The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. Results The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR Conclusions We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
- Published
- 2020
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