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Objective To analyse data from 2016–17 from a hospital-based antimicrobial resistance surveillance with national coverage in a network of hospitals Viet Nam. Methods We analysed data from 13 hospitals, 3 less than the dataset from the 2012–13 period. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing data from the clinical microbiology laboratories from samples sent in for routine diagnostics were used. Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute 2018 guidelines were used for antimicrobial susceptibility testing interpretation. WHONET was used for data entry, management and analysis. Results 42,553 deduplicated isolates were included in this analysis; including 30,222 (71%) Gram-negative and 12,331 (29%) Gram-positive bacteria. 8,793 (21%) were from ICUs and 7,439 (18%) isolates were from invasive infections. Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were the most frequently detected species with 9,092 (21%) and 4,833 isolates (11%), respectively; followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (3,858 isolates – 9.1%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (3,870 isolates – 9%). Bacteria were mainly isolated from sputum (8,798 isolates – 21%), blood (7,118 isolates – 17%) and urine (5,202 isolates – 12%). Among Gram-positives 3,302/4,515 isolates (73%) of S. aureus were MRSA; 99/290 (34%) of Enterococcus faecium were resistant to vancomycin; and 58% (663/1,136) of Streptococcus pneumoniae proportion were reduced susceptible to penicillin. Among Gram-negatives 59% (4,085/6,953) and 40% (1,186/2,958) of E. coli and K. pneumoniae produced ESBL and 29% (376/1,298) and 11% (961/8,830) were resistant to carbapenems, respectively. 79% (2855/3622) and 45% (1,514/3,376) of Acinetobacter spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were carbapenem resistant, respectively. 88% (804/911) of Haemophilus influenzae were ampicillin resistant and 18/253 (7%) of Salmonella spp. and 7/46 (15%) of Shigella spp. were resistant to fluoroquinolones. The number of isolates from which data were submitted in the 2016–2017 period was twice as high as in 2012–2013. AMR proportions were higher in 2016–2017 for most pathogen-antimicrobial combinations of interest including imipenem-resistant A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa and Enterobacterales. Conclusions The data show alarmingly high and increasing resistant proportions among important organisms in Viet Nam. AMR proportions varied across hospital types and should be interpreted with caution because existing sampling bias and missing information on whether isolates were community or hospital acquired. Affordable and scalable ways to adopt a sample- or case-based approach across the network should be explored and clinical data should be integrated to help provide more accurate inferences of the surveillance data.

International audience; Colistin is a critically important antimicrobial for human medicine, and colistin-resistant Escherichia coli are commonly found in poultry and poultry products in Southeast Asia. Here, we aim at disentangling the within-farm and outside-farm drivers of colistin resistance in small-scale chicken farms of the Mekong delta of Vietnam. Nineteen Vietnamese chicken farms were followed up along a whole production cycle, during which weekly antimicrobial use data were recorded. At the beginning, middle and end of each production cycle, commensal E. coli samples from birds were collected, pooled and tested for colistin resistance. Twelve models were fitted to the data using an expectation-maximization algorithm and compared. We further tested the spatial clustering of the occurrence of resistance importations from external sources using the local Moran's I statistic. In the best model, colistin resistance in E. coli from chickens was found to be mostly affected by importations of resistance, and, to a lesser extent, by the use of antimicrobials in the last 1.73 weeks [0.00; 2.90], but not by the use of antimicrobials in day-olds, nor their colistin resistance carriage from hatchery. The occurrence of external source importations proved to be sometimes spatially clustered, suggesting a role of local environmental sources of colistin resistance.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the need to partner with the community in pandemic preparedness and response in order to enable trust-building among stakeholders, which is key in pandemic management. Citizen science, defined here as a practice of public participation and collaboration in all aspects of scientific research to increase knowledge and build trust with governments and researchers, is a crucial approach to promoting community engagement. By harnessing the potential of digitally enabled citizen science, one could translate data into accessible, comprehensible and actionable outputs at the population level. The application of citizen science in health has grown over the years, but most of these approaches remain at the level of participatory data collection. This narrative review examines citizen science approaches in participatory data generation, modelling and visualisation, and calls for truly participatory and co-creation approaches across all domains of pandemic preparedness and response. Further research is needed to identify approaches that optimally generate short-term and long-term value for communities participating in population health. Feasible, sustainable and contextualised citizen science approaches that meaningfully engage affected communities for the long-term will need to be inclusive of all populations and their cultures, comprehensive of all domains, digitally enabled and viewed as a key component to allow trust-building among the stakeholders. The impact of COVID-19 on people’s lives has created an opportune time to advance people’s agency in science, particularly in pandemic preparedness and response.

We studied the immunogenicity of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in health-care workers of a major infectious diseases hospital in Vietnam. We measured neutralizing antibodies before and 14 days after each dose, and at day 28 and month 3 after dose 1. A total of 554 workers (136 men and 418 women; age range, 22–71 years; median age, 36 years) participated with the study. Of the 144 participants selected for follow-up after dose 1, 104 and 94 gave blood for antibody measurement at weeks 6 and 8, and at month 3 after dose 1, respectively. The window time between the two doses was 6 weeks. At baseline, none had detectable neutralizing antibodies. After dose 1, the proportion of participants with detectable neutralizing antibodies increased from 27.3% (151 of 554) at day 14 to 78.0% (432 of 554) at day 28. Age correlated negatively with the development and the levels of neutralizing antibodies. However, at day 28, these differences were less profound, and women had a greater seroconversion rate and greater levels of neutralizing antibodies than men. After dose 2, these age and gender associations were not observable. In addition, the proportion of study participants with detectable neutralizing antibodies increased from 70.2% (73 of 104) before dose 2 (week 6, after dose 1) to 98.1% (102 of 104) 14 days later. At month 3, neutralizing antibodies decreased and 94.7% (89 of 94) of the study participants remained seropositive. The Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine is immunogenic in Vietnamese health-care workers. These data are critical to informing the deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine in Vietnam and in Southeast Asia, where vaccination coverage remains inadequate.

A cluster of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections in Danang, Vietnam, began July 25, 2020, and resulted in 551 confirmed cases and 35 deaths as of February 2021. We analyzed 26 sequences from this cluster and identified a novel shared mutation in nonstructural protein 9, suggesting a single introduction into Vietnam.

Plasmid-Mediated Colistin Resistance 1 (mcr-1) was first reported in 2015 and is a great concern to human health. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of mcr-1 and mcr-1-positive Escherichia coli (MCRPEC) and the association in infection status among various reservoirs connected to livestock. The study was conducted in 70 poultry and swine farms in a commune in Ha Nam province, northern Vietnam. Samples were collected from farmers, food animals, domestic animals, and farm environments (flies and wastewater) for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening for mcr-1 gene and species identification of PCR positive isolates. Among 379 obtained mcr-1 positives isolates, Escherichia coli was the major identified, varying from 50% (2/4) in dog feces to 100% (31/31) in humans feces isolates. The prevalence of MCRPEC was 14.4% (20/139), 49.7% (96/193), 31.3% (25/80), 36.7% (40/109), 26.9% (18/67), and 3.9% (2/51) in humans, chickens, pigs, flies, wastewater, and dogs, respectively. The study identified association between MCRPEC infection status in humans and flies (OR = 3.4), between flies and chickens (OR = 5.3), and between flies and pigs (OR = 9.0). Farmers’ age and farm livestock unit were also associated factors of MCRPEC infection status in humans (OR = 5.1 and 1.05, respectively). These findings bring new knowledge on antibiotic resistance in livestock setting and important suggestions on potential role of flies in the transmission of mcr-1 resistance gene.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was detected in Wuhan, China in 2019 and spread worldwide within few weeks. The COVID-19 epidemic started to gain traction in France in March 2020. Sub-national hospital admissions and deaths were then recorded daily and served as the main policy indicators. Concurrently, mobile phone positioning data have been curated to determine the frequency of users being colocalized within a given distance. Contrarily to individual tracking data, these can provide a proxy of human contact networks between subnational administrative units. Motivated by numerous studies correlating human mobility data and disease incidence, we developed predictive time series models of hospital incidence between July 2020 and April 2021. Adding human contact network analytics such as clustering coefficients, contact network strength, null links or curvature as regressors, we found that predictions can be improved substantially (more than 50%) both at the national and sub-national for up to two weeks. Our sub-national analysis also revealed the importance of spatial structure, as incidence in colocalized administrative units improved predictions. This original application of network analytics from co-localisation data to epidemic spread opens new perspectives for epidemics forecasting and public health.HighlightsWe use novel human contact network analytics based on colocation data of mobile app users to follow the dynamics of disease incidence and interventions of COVID-19 in France.Time series predictions of hospital incidence are greatly improved by adding these analytics as regressors.Sub-national analysis highlights both spatial correlations of incidence and network analytics to obtain high-precision predictions.

Scrub typhus was the predominant rickettsial disease diagnosed among hospitalized patients with acute undifferentiated fever in northern Vietnam., Rickettsioses are endemic to Vietnam; however, only a limited number of clinical studies have been performed on these vectorborne bacteria. We conducted a prospective hospital-based study at 2 national referral hospitals in Hanoi to describe the clinical characteristics of scrub typhus and murine typhus in northern Vietnam and to assess the diagnostic applicability of quantitative real-time PCR assays to diagnose rickettsial diseases. We enrolled 302 patients with acute undifferentiated fever and clinically suspected rickettsiosis during March 2015–March 2017. We used a standardized case report form to collect clinical information and laboratory results at the time of admission and during treatment. We confirmed scrub typhus in 103 (34.1%) patients and murine typhus in 12 (3.3%) patients. These results highlight the need for increased emphasis on training for healthcare providers for earlier recognition, prevention, and treatment of rickettsial diseases in Vietnam.

The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% – 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% – 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens., Multi-strain pathogens, such as influenza, present challenges for interpretation of seroprevalence data as estimates may vary by strain. Here, the authors develop a method for estimating age-specific seroprevalence based on principal components analysis and apply it to influenza data from Vietnam.

Serologic studies are crucial for clarifying dynamics of the coronavirus disease pandemic. Past work on serologic studies (e.g., during influenza pandemics) has made relevant contributions, but specific conditions of the current situation require adaptation. Although detection of antibodies to measure exposure, immunity, or both seems straightforward conceptually, numerous challenges exist in terms of sample collection, what the presence of antibodies actually means, and appropriate analysis and interpretation to account for test accuracy and sampling biases. Successful deployment of serologic studies depends on type and performance of serologic tests, population studied, use of adequate study designs, and appropriate analysis and interpretation of data. We highlight key questions that serologic studies can help answer at different times, review strengths and limitations of different assay types and study designs, and discuss methods for rapid sharing and analysis of serologic data to determine global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health burden, with an estimated quarter of the world’s population being infected. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the “End TB Strategy” in 2014 emphasising knowing the epidemic. WHO ranks Vietnam 12th in the world of high burden countries. TB spatial and temporal patterns have been observed globally with evidence of Vitamin D playing a role in seasonality. We explored the presence of temporal and spatial clustering of TB in Vietnam and their determinants to aid public health measures. Methods Data were collected by the National TB program of Vietnam from 2010 to 2015 and linked to the following datasets: socio-demographic characteristics; climatic variables; influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence; geospatial data. The TB dataset was aggregated by province and quarter. Descriptive time series analyses using LOESS regression were completed per province to determine seasonality and trend. Harmonic regression was used to determine the amplitude of seasonality by province. A mixed-effect linear model was used with province and year as random effects and all other variables as fixed effects. Results There were 610,676 cases of TB notified between 2010 and 2015 in Vietnam. Heat maps of TB incidence per quarter per province showed substantial temporal and geospatial variation. Time series analysis demonstrated seasonality throughout the country, with peaks in spring/summer and troughs in autumn/winter. Incidence was consistently higher in the south, the three provinces with the highest incidence per 100,000 population were Tay Ninh, An Giang and Ho Chi Minh City. However, relative seasonal amplitude was more pronounced in the north. Mixed-effect linear model confirmed that TB incidence was associated with time and latitude. Of the demographic, socio-economic and health related variables, population density, percentage of those under 15 years of age, and HIV infection prevalence per province were associated with TB incidence. Of the climate variables, absolute humidity, average temperature and sunlight were associated with TB incidence. Conclusion Preventative public health measures should be focused in the south of Viet Nam where incidence is highest. Vitamin D is unlikely to be a strong driver of seasonality but supplementation may play a role in a package of interventions.

The accurate assessment of antimicrobial use (AMU) requires relating quantities of active ingredients (AAIs) with population denominators. These data can be used to prioritize potential sources of selective pressure for antimicrobial resistance and to establish reduction targets. Here, we estimated AMU in Vietnam (human population 93.4 M in 2015), and compared it with European Union (EU) data (population 511.5 M in 2014). We extrapolated AMU data on each key animal species and humans from different published sources to calculate overall AMU (in tonnes) in Vietnam. We then compared these data with published statistics on AMU in the European Union (EU). A total of 3838 t of antimicrobials were used in Vietnam, of which 2751 (71.7%) corresponded to animal use, and the remainder (1086 t; 28.3%) to human AMU. This equates to 261.7 mg and 247.3 mg per kg of human and animal biomass, compared with 122.0 mg and 151.5 mg in the EU. The greatest quantities of antimicrobials (in decreasing order) were used in pigs (41.7% of total use), humans (28.3%), aquaculture (21.9%) and chickens (4.8%). Combined AMU in other species accounted for

International audience; In recent years, serosurveillance has gained momentum as a way of determining disease transmission and immunity in populations, particularly with respect to vaccine preventable diseases. At the end of 2017, the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology held a meeting in Vietnam with national policy makers, researchers, and international experts to discuss current seroepidemiologic projects in Vietnam and future needs and plans for nationwide serosurveillance. This report summarizes the meeting and the plans that were discussed to set up nationwide serosurveillance in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children in low/middle-income countries. Using routine hospital data, we aimed to examine the spatial distribution, temporal trends and climatic risk factors of paediatric ARIs in Vietnam. METHODS: Data from hospitalised paediatric (

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005–15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions., Author summary Given the global expanding distribution of Aedes mosquitoes, dengue has established itself throughout the world’s tropical and subtropical regions in both endemic and epidemic transmission cycles, causing significant morbidity and mortality. Moreover, the rise of air travel over the past century has resulted in a highly inter-connected world, where geographical distance is becoming less of a barrier to pathogen dispersal. However, few studies have quantified and validated changes in seasonal and long-term risks of international spread for infectious diseases. In China, dengue remains a seasonal disease occasionally triggered by imported dengue viruses in travellers, with more than 90% of imported cases between 2005 and 2014 originated from South-East Asia. Therefore, taking dengue importation from South-East Asia into China as an example, we constructed a branching process modelling framework to integrate three components for assessing the risk of dengue introduction into a country: 1) the risk of a person acquiring the disease in the origin country; 2) the probability of a person traveling to the destination country of interest while infectious; and 3) the likelihood of subsequent local transmission in the destination country. This model has revealed the seasonal patterns and increasing risks in routes of dengue spread by air travel over a decade. The spatiotemporal heterogeneities of dengue importation risk have also been seen in the travelers of Chinese and SEA residents. The risk of introduced transmission from particular routes highlighted could be used to inform efforts to dengue prevention and control, particularly in currently neglected, high-risk locations.

Background: Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. Methods: We used 18 years (1993–2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. Results: The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power 17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Conclusions: Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings.

Background The global burden of diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In montane areas of South-East Asia such as northern Laos, recent changes in land use have induced increased runoff, soil erosion and in-stream suspended sediment loads, and potential pathogen dissemination. To our knowledge, few studies have related diarrhea incidences to catchment scale hydrological factors such as river discharge, and loads of suspended sediment and of Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) such as Escherichia coli, together with sociological factors such as hygiene practices. We hypothesized that climate factors combined with human behavior control diarrhea incidence, either because higher rainfall, leading to higher stream discharges, suspended sediment loads and FIB counts, are associated with higher numbers of reported diarrhea cases during the rainy season, or because water shortage leads to the use of less safe water sources during the dry season. Using E. coli as a FIB, the objectives of this study were thus (1) to characterize the epidemiological dynamics of diarrhea in Northern Laos, and (2) to identify which hydro-meteorological and sociological risk factors were associated with diarrhea epidemics. Methods Considering two unconnected river catchments of 22 and 7,448 km2, respectively, we conducted a retrospective time series analysis of meteorological variables (rainfall, air temperature), hydrological variables (discharge, suspended sediments, FIB counts, water temperature), and the number of diarrheal disease cases reported at 6 health centers located in the 5 southern districts of the Luang Prabang Province, Lao PDR. We also examined the socio-demographic factors potentially affecting vulnerability to the effect of the climate factors, such as drinking water sources, hygiene habits, and recreational water exposure. Results Using thus a mixed methods approach, we found E. coli to be present all year long (100–1,000 Most Probable Number or MPN 100 mL-1) indicating that fecal contamination is ubiquitous and constant. We found that populations switch their water supply from wells to surface water during drought periods, the latter of which appear to be at higher risk of bacterial contamination than municipal water fountains. We thus found that water shortage in the Luang Prabang area triggers diarrhea peaks during the dry and hot season and that rainfall and aquifer refill ends the epidemic during the wet season. The temporal trends of reported daily diarrhea cases were generally bimodal with hospital admissions peaking in February-March and later in May-July. Annual incidence rates were higher in more densely populated areas and mostly concerned the 0–4 age group and male patients. Conclusions We found that anthropogenic drivers, such as hygiene practices, were at least as important as environmental drivers in determining the seasonal pattern of a diarrhea epidemic. For diarrheal disease risk monitoring, discharge or groundwater level can be considered as relevant proxies. These variables should be monitored in the framework of an early warning system provided that a tradeoff is found between the size of the monitored catchment and the frequency of the measurement., Author Summary Aiming to identify the most critical drivers of diarrhea epidemics in montane areas of South-East Asia, we conducted a retrospective time series analysis of diarrhea reported cases and of hydro-meteorological variables measured in two contrasted river basins in northern Laos, together with socio-behavioral practices. We found that during drought periods, the population switches its water supply from wells to surface water where we measured numbers of fecal indicator bacteria (E. coli) of 100–1,000 MPN 100 mL-1 (the World Health Organization recommendation is 0 MPN 100 mL-1 in drinking water supply sources). We found that water shortages trigger diarrhea peaks during the dry and hot seasons and that rainfall and subsequent aquifer refill ends the epidemic during the wet season. As E. coli counts in surface water are high all year long, E. coli may not be a relevant indicator of the fecal risk in this area. Conversely, stream discharge and aquifer water level appear to be relevant proxies to predict diarrheal risk. Mitigating both environmental and anthropogenic drivers of fecal bacteria dissemination in developing countries is critical in the context of global change: more intense rainfall combined to the extension of run-off prone land uses (e.g. tree plantation without understorey) may decrease both the aquifer recharge and the contaminant retention ecosystem service, and thus threaten the availability of safe water resource for the population.

Background Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the tuberculosis (TB) pathogen, despite a low level of genetic diversity, has revealed a high variety of biological and epidemiological characteristics linked to their lineages, such as transmissibility, fitness and propensity to acquire drug resistance. This has important implications for the epidemiology of TB. We conducted this first countrywide cross-sectional study to identify the prevalent M. tuberculosis lineages and to assess their epidemiological associations and their relation to drug resistance. The study was conducted among isolates acquired in reference hospitals across Vietnam. Isolates with drug susceptibility testing profiles were identified for their lineages by spoligotyping. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association of M. tuberculosis lineages with location, age and sex of the patients and drug resistance levels. Results Results showed that the most prevalent lineage was Beijing (55.4 %), followed by EAI (27.5 %), T (6.4 %), LAM (1.3 %), Haarlem (1 %) and Zero type (0.3 %). The proportion of Beijing isolates in the North (70.4 %) and the South (68 %) was higher than in the Centre (28 %) (OR = 1.7 [95 % CI: 1.4–2.0], p

Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. Here, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the United States to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. We report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. These waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. In contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. We interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. We conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.

Djibouti is an East African country with a high tuberculosis incidence. This study was conducted over a 2-month period in Djibouti, during which 62 consecutive patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) were included. Genetic characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, using mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit variable-number tandem-repeat typing and spoligotyping, was performed. The genetic and phylogenetic analysis revealed only three major families (Central Asian, East African Indian and T). The high diversity and linkage disequilibrium within each family suggest a long period of clonal evolution. A Bayesian approach shows that the phylogenetic structure observed in our sample of 62 isolates is very likely to be representative of the phylogenetic structure of the M. tuberculosis population in the total number of TB cases.

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼ 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El Nino episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Nino Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.

Background A dengue outbreak in an ecotourism destination spot in Vietnam, from September to November 2013, impacted a floating village of fishermen on the coastal island of Cat Ba. The outbreak raises questions about how tourism may impact disease spread in rural areas. Methods Epidemiological data were obtained from the Hai Phong Preventive Medical Center (PMC), including case histories and residential location from all notified dengue cases from this outbreak. All household addresses were geo-located. Knox test, a spatio-temporal analysis that enables inference dengue clustering constrained by space and time, was performed on the geocoded locations. From the plasma available from two patients, positive for Dengue serotype 3 virus (DENV3), the Envelope (E) gene was sequenced, and their genetic relationships compared to other E sequences in the region. Results Of 192 dengue cases, the odds ratio of contracting dengue infections for people living in the floating villages compared to those living on the island was 4.9 (95 % CI: 3.6-6.7). The space-time analyses on 111 geocoded dengue residences found the risk of dengue infection to be the highest within 4 days and a radius of 20 m of a given case. Of the total of ten detected clusters with an excess risk greater than 2, the cluster with the highest number of cases was in the floating village area (24 patients for a total duration of 31 days). Phylogenetic analysis revealed a high homology of the two DENV3 strains (genotype III) from Cat Ba with DENV3 viruses circulating in Hanoi in the same year (99.1 %). Conclusions Our study showed that dengue transmission is unlikely to be sustained on Cat Ba Island and that the 2013 epidemic likely originated through introduction of viruses from the mainland, potentially Hanoi. These findings suggest that prevention efforts should be focused on mainland rather than on the island. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2235-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUMMARYA reassortant swine-origin A(H3N2) virus (A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010) was detected through swine surveillance programmes in southern Vietnam in 2010. This virus contains haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes from a human A(H3N2) virus circulating around 2004–2006, and the internal genes from triple-reassortant swine influenza A viruses (IAVs). To assess population susceptibility to this virus we measured haemagglutination inhibiting (HI) titres to A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010 and to seasonal A/Perth/16/2009 for 947 sera collected from urban and rural Vietnamese people during 2011–2012. Seroprevalence (HI ⩾ 40) was high and similar for both viruses, with 62·6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 59·4–65·7] against A/Perth/16/2009 and 54·6% (95% CI 51·4–57·8%) against A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010, and no significant differences between urban and rural participants. Children aged

SUMMARYNorovirus (NV) is an important cause of acute gastroenteritis in children, but is also frequently detected in asymptomatic children, which complicates the interpretation of NV detection results in both the clinical setting and population prevalence studies. A total of 807 faecal samples from children aged t) values was observed in which the lower peak was assumed to represent cases for which NV was the causal agent of diarrhoea, whereas the higher peak was assumed to represent cases involving an alternative pathogen other than NV. Under these assumptions, we applied finite-mixture modelling to estimate a threshold of Cttvalues in patients co-infected with rotavirus. We conclude that the use of an appropriate cut-off value in the interpretation of NV real-time RT–PCR results may improve differential diagnosis of enteric infections, and could contribute to improved estimates of the burden of NV disease.

Background: Dengue fever (DF) has been emerging in Hanoi over the last decade. Both DF epidemiology and climate in Hanoi are strongly seasonal. This study aims at characterizing the seasonality of DF in Hanoi and its links to climatic variables as DF incidence increases from year to year. Methods: Clinical suspected cases of DF from the 14 central districts of Hanoi were obtained from the Ministry of Health over a 8-year period (2002-2009). Wavelet decompositions were used to characterize the main periodic cycles of DF and climatic variables as well as the mean phase angles of these cycles. Cross-wavelet spectra between DF and each climatic variables were also computed. DF reproductive ratio was calculated from Soper's formula and smoothed to highlight both its long-term trend and seasonality. Results: Temperature, rainfall, and vapor pressure show strong seasonality. DF and relative humidity show both strong seasonality and a sub-annual periodicity. DF reproductive ratio is increasing through time and displays two clear peaks per year, reflecting the sub-annual periodicity of DF incidence. Temperature, rainfall and vapor pressure lead DF incidence by a lag of 8-10 weeks, constant through time. Relative humidity leads DF by a constant lag of 18 weeks for the annual cycle and a lag decreasing from 14 to 5 weeks for the sub-annual cycle. Conclusion: Results are interpreted in terms of mosquito population dynamics and immunological interactions between the different dengue serotypes in the human compartment. Given its important population size, its strong seasonality and its dengue emergence, Hanoi offers an ideal natural experiment to test hypotheses on dengue serotypes interactions, knowledge of prime importance for vaccine development.

International audience; BACKGROUND: During the last century, WHO led public health interventions that resulted in spectacular achievements such as the worldwide eradication of smallpox and the elimination of malaria from the Western world. However, besides major successes achieved worldwide in infectious diseases control, most elimination/control programs remain frustrating in many tropical countries where specific biological and socio-economical features prevented implementation of disease control over broad spatial and temporal scales. Emblematic examples include malaria, yellow fever, measles and HIV. There is consequently an urgent need to develop affordable and sustainable disease control strategies that can target the core of infectious diseases transmission in highly endemic areas. DISCUSSION: Meanwhile, although most pathogens appear so difficult to eradicate, it is surprising to realize that human activities are major drivers of the current high rate of extinction among upper organisms through alteration of their ecology and evolution, i.e., their "niche". During the last decades, the accumulation of ecological and evolutionary studies focused on infectious diseases has shown that the niche of a pathogen holds more dimensions than just the immune system targeted by vaccination and treatment. Indeed, it is situated at various intra- and inter- host levels involved on very different spatial and temporal scales. After developing a precise definition of the niche of a pathogen, we detail how major advances in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology of infectious diseases can enlighten the planning and implementation of infectious diseases control in tropical countries with challenging economic constraints. SUMMARY: We develop how the approach could translate into applied cases, explore its expected benefits and constraints, and we conclude on the necessity of such approach for pathogen control in low-income countries.

A total of 221 isolates of M. tuberculosis were sampled from hospitals and the general population in the northern plain of Vietnam, one of the most populated region of the country. Genotypic composition and diversity were characterized, and we investigated how they are affected by sampling (hospital vs. general population), correcting for potential confounding effects (location, age and gender of the patients). Spoligotyping and 12 MIRU-VNTR typing were used as first line. Then 15 MIRU-VNTR standard set was used, making 21 MIRU-VNTR typing for the clustered isolates. Result showed that 8 lineages and 13 sub-lineages were circulating in the region. The most predominant lineages were Beijing (38.5%) and EAI (38.5%). Others appeared with small proportions H (1.4%), LAM (1.8%), T (8.1%), X (0.9%), MANU (2.3%), and Zero (0.4%). Higher clustering rate was found in the hospital samples (17.9% in urban and 19.2% in rural areas) compared to the population ones (0%). The typical Vietnamese EAI4-VNM sub-lineage of EAI lineage accounted for 67% of EAI strains and was associated with older ages. Beijing genotypes were associated with younger, urban population and were characterized by high clustering rates. These characteristics strongly suggest that Beijing strains are invading the population, replacing the local EAI-VNM4, thus predicting a more serious tuberculosis situation in the future in the absence of more effective control strategies.

Mycobacterium marinum causes a systemic tuberculosis-like disease in fish and skin infections in humans that can spread to deeper structures, resulting in tenosynovitis, arthritis, and osteomyelitis. However, little information is available concerning (i) the intraspecific genetic diversity of M. marinum isolated from humans and animals; (ii) M. marinum genotype circulation in the different ecosystems, and (iii) the link between M. marinum genetic diversity and hosts (humans and fish). Here, we conducted a genetic study on 89 M. marinum isolates from humans ( n = 68) and fish ( n = 21) by using mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) typing. The results show that the M. marinum population is genetically structured not only according to the host but also according to the ecosystem as well as to tissue tropism in humans. This suggests the existence of different genetic pools in the function of the biological and ecological compartments. Moreover, the presence of only certain M. marinum genotypes in humans suggests a different zoonotic potential of the M. marinum genotypes. Considering that the infection is linked to aquarium activity, a significant genetic difference was also detected when the human tissue tropism of M. marinum was taken into consideration, with a higher genetic polymorphism in strains isolated from patients with cutaneous forms than from individuals with deeper-structure infection. It appears that only few genotypes can produce deeper infections in humans, suggesting that the immune system might play a filtering role.

In the context of global warming and the risk of spreading arthropod-borne diseases, the emergence and reemergence of leishmaniasis should not be neglected. In Senegal, over the past few years, cases of canine leishmaniasis have been observed. We aim to improve the understanding of the transmission cycle of this zoonosis, to determine the responsible species and to evaluate the risk for human health. An epidemiological and serological study on canine and human populations in the community of Mont Rolland (Thies area) was conducted. The data showed a high seroprevalence of canine leishmaniasis (>40%) and more than 30% seropositive people. The dogs' seroprevalence was confirmed by PCR data (concordance > 0.85, Kappa > 0.7). The statistical analysis showed strong statistical associations between the health status of dogs and seropositivity, the number of positive PCRs, clinical signs and the number of Leishmania isolates. For the first time, the discriminative PCRs performed on canine Leishmania strains clearly evidenced that the pathogenic agent is Leishmania infantum. The results obtained show that transmission of this species is well established in this area. That the high incidence of seropositivity in humans may be a consequence of infection with this species is discussed. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS on behalf of the Institut Pasteur.

International audience; Background. Social scientists have suggested that cultural diversity in a nation leads to societal instability. However, societal instability may be affected not only by within-nation or alpha diversity, but also diversity between a nation and its neighbours or beta diversity. It is also necessary to distinguish different domains of diversity, namely linguistic, ethnic and religious, and to distinguish between the direct effects of diversity on societal instability, and effects that are mediated by economic conditions. Methodology/Principal Findings. We assembled a large cross-national dataset with information on alpha and beta cultural diversity, economic conditions, and indices of societal instability. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of cultural diversity on economics and societal stability. Results show that different types and domains of diversity have interacting effects. As previously documented, linguistic alpha diversity has a negative effect on economic performance, and we show that it is largely through this economic mechanism that it affects societal instability. For beta diversity, the higher the linguistic diversity among nations in a region, the less stable the nation. But, religious beta diversity has the opposite effect, reducing instability, particularly in the presence of high linguistic diversity. Conclusions. Within-nation linguistic diversity is associated with reduced economic performance, which, in turn, increases societal instability. Nations which differ linguistically from their neighbors are also less stable. However, religious diversity between neighboring nations has the opposite effect, decreasing societal instability.