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BACKGROUND: Diminished synaptic gain-the sensitivity of postsynaptic responses to neural inputs-may be a fundamental synaptic pathology in schizophrenia. Evidence for this is indirect, however. Furthermore, it is unclear whether pyramidal cells or interneurons (or both) are affected, or how these deficits relate to symptoms. \ud \ud METHODS: People with schizophrenia diagnoses (PScz) (n = 108), their relatives (n = 57), and control subjects (n = 107) underwent 3 electroencephalography (EEG) paradigms-resting, mismatch negativity, and 40-Hz auditory steady-state response-and resting functional magnetic resonance imaging. Dynamic causal modeling was used to quantify synaptic connectivity in cortical microcircuits. \ud \ud RESULTS: Classic group differences in EEG features between PScz and control subjects were replicated, including increased theta and other spectral changes (resting EEG), reduced mismatch negativity, and reduced 40-Hz power. Across all 4 paradigms, characteristic PScz data features were all best explained by models with greater self-inhibition (decreased synaptic gain) in pyramidal cells. Furthermore, disinhibition in auditory areas predicted abnormal auditory perception (and positive symptoms) in PScz in 3 paradigms. \ud \ud CONCLUSIONS: First, characteristic EEG changes in PScz in 3 classic paradigms are all attributable to the same underlying parameter change: greater self-inhibition in pyramidal cells. Second, psychotic symptoms in PScz relate to disinhibition in neural circuits. These findings are more commensurate with the hypothesis that in PScz, a primary loss of synaptic gain on pyramidal cells is then compensated by interneuron downregulation (rather than the converse). They further suggest that psychotic symptoms relate to this secondary downregulation.

Understanding information processing in the brain-and creating general-purpose artificial intelligence-are long-standing aspirations of scientists and engineers worldwide. The distinctive features of human intelligence are high-level cognition and control in various interactions with the world including the self, which are not defined in advance and are vary over time. The challenge of building human-like intelligent machines, as well as progress in brain science and behavioural analyses, robotics, and their associated theoretical formalisations, speaks to the importance of the world-model learning and inference. In this article, after briefly surveying the history and challenges of internal model learning and probabilistic learning, we introduce the free energy principle, which provides a useful framework within which to consider neuronal computation and probabilistic world models. Next, we showcase examples of human behaviour and cognition explained under that principle. We then describe symbol emergence in the context of probabilistic modelling, as a topic at the frontiers of cognitive robotics. Lastly, we review recent progress in creating human-like intelligence by using novel probabilistic programming languages. The striking consensus that emerges from these studies is that probabilistic descriptions of learning and inference are powerful and effective ways to create human-like artificial intelligent machines and to understand intelligence in the context of how humans interact with their world.

Synaptic loss occurs early in many neurodegenerative diseases and contributes to cognitive impairment even in the absence of gross atrophy. Currently, for human disease there are few formal models to explain how cortical networks underlying cognition are affected by synaptic loss. We advocate that biophysical models of neurophysiology offer both a bridge from clinical to preclinical models of pathology, and quantitative assays for experimental medicine. Such biophysical models can also disclose hidden neuronal dynamics generating neurophysiological observations like electro- and magneto-encephalography (MEG). Here, we augment a biophysically informed mesoscale model of human cortical function by inclusion of synaptic density estimates as captured by [11C]UCB-J positron emission tomography, and provide insights into how regional synapse loss affects neurophysiology. We use the primary tauopathy of progressive supranuclear palsy (Richardson’s syndrome) as an exemplar condition, with high clinicopathological correlations. Progressive supranuclear palsy causes a marked change in cortical neurophysiology in the presence of mild atrophy and is associated with a decline in cognitive functions associated with the frontal lobe. Using (parametric empirical) Bayesian inversion of a conductance-based canonical microcircuit model of MEG data, we show that the inclusion of regional synaptic density—as a subject-specific prior on laminar specific neuronal populations—markedly increases model evidence. Specifically, model comparison suggests that a reduction in synaptic density in inferior frontal cortex affects superficial and granular layer glutamatergic excitation. This predicted individual differences in behaviour, demonstrating the link between synaptic loss, neurophysiology, and cognitive deficits. The method we demonstrate is not restricted to progressive supranuclear palsy or the effects of synaptic loss: such pathology-enriched dynamic causal models can be used to assess the mechanisms of other neurological disorders, with diverse non-invasive measures of pathology, and is suitable to test the effects of experimental pharmacology.

Newly emerging infectious diseases, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19), create new challenges for public healthcare systems. Before effective treatments, countering the spread of these infections depends on mitigating, protective behaviours such as social distancing, respecting lockdown, wearing masks, frequent handwashing, travel restrictions, and vaccine acceptance. Previous work has shown that the enacting protective behaviours depends on beliefs about individual vulnerability, threat severity, and one's ability to engage in such protective actions. However, little is known about the genesis of these beliefs in response to an infectious disease epidemic, and the cognitive mechanisms that may link these beliefs to decision making. Active inference (AI) is a recent approach to behavioural modelling that integrates embodied perception, action, belief updating, and decision making. This approach provides a framework to understand the behaviour of agents in situations that require planning under uncertainty. It assumes that the brain infers the hidden states that cause sensations, predicts the perceptual feedback produced by adaptive actions, and chooses actions that minimize expected surprise in the future. In this paper, we present a computational account describing how individuals update their beliefs about the risks and thereby commit to protective behaviours. We show how perceived risks, beliefs about future states, sensory uncertainty, and outcomes under each policy can determine individual protective behaviours. We suggest that these mechanisms are crucial to assess how individuals cope with uncertainty during a pandemic, and we show the interest of these new perspectives for public health policies.

Highlights • We leverage the idea of ‘Markov blanket’ as a statistical boundary to provide an analysis of partitions in neuronal systems. • We show this partition is applicable to multiple scales, from single neurons, brain regions, and brain-wide networks. • Based on the canonical micro-circuitry, our treatment has practical applications for effective connectivity. • Our proposed partition highlights the limitations of ‘modular’ proposals considering a single level of description., Recent characterisations of self-organising systems depend upon the presence of a ‘Markov blanket’: a statistical boundary that mediates the interactions between the inside and outside of a system. We leverage this idea to provide an analysis of partitions in neuronal systems. This is applicable to brain architectures at multiple scales, enabling partitions into single neurons, brain regions, and brain-wide networks. This treatment is based upon the canonical micro-circuitry used in empirical studies of effective connectivity, so as to speak directly to practical applications. The notion of effective connectivity depends upon the dynamic coupling between functional units, whose form recapitulates that of a Markov blanket at each level of analysis. The nuance afforded by partitioning neural systems in this way highlights certain limitations of ‘modular’ perspectives of brain function that only consider a single level of description.

We propose a computational neurology of movement based on the convergence of theoretical neurobiology and clinical neurology. A significant development in the former is the idea that we can frame brain function as a process of (active) inference, in which the nervous system makes predictions about its sensory data. These predictions depend upon an implicit predictive (generative) model used by the brain. This means neural dynamics can be framed as generating actions to ensure sensations are consistent with these predictions—and adjusting predictions when they are not. We illustrate the significance of this formulation for clinical neurology by simulating a clinical examination of the motor system using an upper limb coordination task. Specifically, we show how tendon reflexes emerge naturally under the right kind of generative model. Through simulated perturbations, pertaining to prior probabilities of this model’s variables, we illustrate the emergence of hyperreflexia and pendular reflexes, reminiscent of neurological lesions in the corticospinal tract and cerebellum. We then turn to the computational lesions causing hypokinesia and deficits of coordination. This in silico lesion-deficit analysis provides an opportunity to revisit classic neurological dichotomies (e.g. pyramidal versus extrapyramidal systems) from the perspective of modern approaches to theoretical neurobiology—and our understanding of the neurocomputational architecture of movement control based on first principles., Parr et al. report a series of numerical simulations—based on Bayesian message passing—of healthy and pathological motor control. They perform an in silico lesion-deficit analysis and demonstrate how the sorts of syndromes observed during a clinical neurological examination emerge from pathological computation.

Published: 25 July 2022 Functional neuroimaging research on anxiety has traditionally focused on brain networks associated with the psychological aspects of anxiety. Here, instead, we target the somatic aspects of anxiety. Motivated by the growing appreciation that top-down cortical processing plays a crucial role in perception and action, we used resting-state functional MRI data from the Human Connectome Project and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) to characterize effective connectivity among hierarchically organized regions in the exteroceptive, interoceptive, and motor cortices. In people with high (fear-related) somatic arousal, top-down effective connectivity was enhanced in all three networks: an observation that corroborates well with the phenomenology of anxiety. The anxiety-associated changes in connectivity were sufficiently reliable to predict whether a new participant has mild or severe somatic anxiety. Interestingly, the increase in top-down connections to sensorimotor cortex were not associated with fear affect scores, thus establishing the (relative) dissociation between somatic and cognitive dimensions of anxiety. Overall, enhanced top-down effective connectivity in sensorimotor cortices emerges as a promising and quantifiable candidate marker of trait somatic anxiety. This research was supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018–2021 program, by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities (BCBL Severo Ochoa excellence accreditation SEV- 2015–0490 and BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation SEV-2017–0718), the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Ramon y Cajal Fellowship, RYC-2017–21845) and the project MTM2017–82379- R(AEI/FEDER,UE) (principal investigator: Dr. Maria Xose Rodriguez, BCAM). KJF was supported by funding for the Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (Ref: 205103/Z/16/Z), a Canada-UK Artificial Intelligence Initiative (Ref: ES/T01279X/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation under the Specific Grant Agreement No. 945539 (Human Brain Project SGA3).

This paper considers the phenomenology of depersonalisation disorder, in relation to predictive processing and its associated pathophysiology. To do this, we first establish a few mechanistic tenets of predictive processing that are necessary to talk about phenomenal transparency, mental action, and self as subject. We briefly review the important role of ‘predicting precision’ and how this affords mental action and the loss of phenomenal transparency. We then turn to sensory attenuation and the phenomenal consequences of (pathophysiological) failures to attenuate or modulate sensory precision. We then consider this failure in the context of depersonalisation disorder. The key idea here is that depersonalisation disorder reflects the remarkable capacity to explain perceptual engagement with the world via the hypothesis that “I am an embodied perceiver, but I am not in control of my perception”. We suggest that individuals with depersonalisation may believe that ‘another agent’ is controlling their thoughts, perceptions or actions, while maintaining full insight that the ‘other agent’ is ‘me’ (the self). Finally, we rehearse the predictions of this formal analysis, with a special focus on the psychophysical and physiological abnormalities that may underwrite the phenomenology of depersonalisation.

In our everyday lives, we are often required to follow a conversation when background noise is present (“speech-in-noise” perception). Speech-in-noise perception varies widely—and people who are worse at speech-in-noise perception are also worse at fundamental auditory grouping, as assessed by figure-ground tasks. Here, we examined the cortical processes that link difficulties with speech-in-noise perception to difficulties with figure-ground perception using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We found strong evidence that the earliest stages of the auditory cortical hierarchy (left core and belt areas) are similarly disinhibited when speech-in-noise and figure-ground tasks are more difficult (i.e., at target-to-masker ratios corresponding to 60% than 90% thresholds)—consistent with increased cortical gain at lower levels of the auditory hierarchy. Overall, our results reveal a common neural substrate for these basic (figure-ground) and naturally relevant (speech-in-noise) tasks—which provides a common computational basis for the link between speech-in-noise perception and fundamental auditory grouping.

Research in clinical neuroscience is founded on the idea that a better understanding of brain (dys)function will improve our ability to diagnose and treat neurological and psychiatric disorders. In recent years, neuroscience has converged on the notion that the brain is a 'prediction machine,' in that it actively predicts the sensory input that it will receive if one or another course of action is chosen. These predictions are used to select actions that will (most often, and in the long run) maintain the body within the narrow range of physiological states consistent with survival. This insight has given rise to an area of clinical computational neuroscience research that focuses on characterizing neural circuit architectures that can accomplish these predictive functions, and on how the associated processes may break down or become aberrant within clinical conditions. Here, we provide a brief review of examples of recent work on the application of predictive processing models of brain function to study clinical (psychiatric) disorders, with the aim of highlighting current directions and their potential clinical utility. We offer examples of recent conceptual models, formal mathematical models, and applications of such models in empirical research in clinical populations, with a focus on making this material accessible to clinicians without expertise in computational neuroscience. In doing so, we aim to highlight the potential insights and opportunities that understanding the brain as a prediction machine may offer to clinical research and practice.

Adaptive social behavior and mental well-being depend on not only recognizing emotional expressions but also, inferring the absence of emotion. While the neurobiology underwriting the perception of emotions is well studied, the mechanisms for detecting a lack of emotional content in social signals remain largely unknown. Here, using cutting-edge analyses of effective brain connectivity, we uncover the brain networks differentiating neutral and emotional body language. The data indicate greater activation of the right amygdala and midline cerebellar vermis to nonemotional as opposed to emotional body language. Most important, the effective connectivity between the amygdala and insula predicts people's ability to recognize the absence of emotion. These conclusions extend substantially current concepts of emotion perception by suggesting engagement of limbic effective connectivity in recognizing the lack of emotion in body language reading. Furthermore, the outcome may advance the understanding of overly emotional interpretation of social signals in depression or schizophrenia by providing the missing link between body language reading and limbic pathways. The study thus opens an avenue for multidisciplinary research on social cognition and the underlying cerebrocerebellar networks, ranging from animal models to patients with neuropsychiatric conditions.

The notions of degeneracy and redundancy are important constructs in many areas, ranging from genomics through to network science. Degeneracy finds a powerful role in neuroscience, explaining key aspects of distributed processing and structure–function relationships in the brain. For example, degeneracy accounts for the superadditive effect of lesions on functional deficits in terms of a “many-to-one” structure–function mapping. In this paper, we offer a principled account of degeneracy and redundancy, when function is operationalized in terms of active inference, namely, a formulation of perception and action as belief updating under generative models of the world. In brief, “degeneracy” is quantified by the “entropy” of posterior beliefs about the causes of sensations, while “redundancy” is the “complexity” cost incurred by forming those beliefs. From this perspective, degeneracy and redundancy are complementary: Active inference tries to minimize redundancy while maintaining degeneracy. This formulation is substantiated using statistical and mathematical notions of degenerate mappings and statistical efficiency. We then illustrate changes in degeneracy and redundancy during the learning of a word repetition task. Finally, we characterize the effects of lesions—to intrinsic and extrinsic connections—using in silico disconnections. These numerical analyses highlight the fundamental difference between degeneracy and redundancy—and how they score distinct imperatives for perceptual inference and structure learning that are relevant to synthetic and biological intelligence.

Changes in neurovascular coupling are associated with both Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia in later life, but this may be confounded by cerebrovascular risk. We hypothesized that hemodynamic latency would be associated with reduced cognitive functioning across the lifespan, holding constant demographic and cerebrovascular risk. In 387 adults aged 18-85 (mean = 48.82), dynamic causal modeling was used to estimate the hemodynamic response function in the left and right V1 and V3-ventral regions of the visual cortex in response to a simple checkerboard block design stimulus with minimal cognitive demands. The hemodynamic latency (transit time) in the visual cortex was used to predict general cognitive ability (Full-Scale IQ), controlling for demographic variables (age, race, education, socioeconomic status) and cerebrovascular risk factors (hypertension, alcohol use, smoking, high cholesterol, BMI, type 2 diabetes, cardiac disorders). Increased hemodynamic latency in the visual cortex predicted reduced cognitive function (p

Music is ubiquitous across human cultures - as a source of affective and pleasurable experience, moving us both physically and emotionally - and learning to play music shapes both brain structure and brain function. Music processing in the brain - namely, the perception of melody, harmony and rhythm - has traditionally been studied as an auditory phenomenon using passive listening paradigms. However, when listening to music, we actively generate predictions about what is likely to happen next. This enactive aspect has led to a more comprehensive understanding of music processing involving brain structures implicated in action, emotion and learning. Here we review the cognitive neuroscience literature of music perception. We show that music perception, action, emotion and learning all rest on the human brain's fundamental capacity for prediction - as formulated by the predictive coding of music model. This Review elucidates how this formulation of music perception and expertise in individuals can be extended to account for the dynamics and underlying brain mechanisms of collective music making. This in turn has important implications for human creativity as evinced by music improvisation. These recent advances shed new light on what makes music meaningful from a neuroscientific perspective.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to exact a devastating global toll. Ascertaining the factors underlying differential susceptibility and prognosis following viral exposure is critical to improving public health responses. We propose that gut microbes may contribute to variation in COVID-19 outcomes. We synthesise evidence for gut microbial contributions to immunity and inflammation, and associations with demographic factors affecting disease severity. We suggest mechanisms potentially underlying microbially mediated differential susceptibility to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These include gut microbiome-mediated priming of host inflammatory responses and regulation of endocrine signalling, with consequences for the cellular features exploited by SARS-CoV-2 virions. We argue that considering gut microbiome-mediated mechanisms may offer a lens for appreciating differential susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, potentially contributing to clinical and epidemiological approaches to understanding and managing COVID-19.

Selecting hand actions to manipulate an object is affected both by perceptual factors and by action goals. Affordances may contribute to “stimulus–response” congruency effects driven by habitual actions to an object. In previous studies, we have demonstrated an influence of the congruency between hand and object orientations on response times when reaching to turn an object, such as a cup. In this study, we investigated how the representation of hand postures triggered by planning to turn a cup was influenced by this congruency effect, in an fMRI scanning environment. Healthy participants were asked to reach and turn a real cup that was placed in front of them either in an upright orientation or upside–down. They were instructed to use a hand orientation that was either congruent or incongruent with the cup orientation. As expected, the motor responses were faster when the hand and cup orientations were congruent. There was increased activity in a network of brain regions involving object-directed actions during action planning, which included bilateral primary and extrastriate visual, medial, and superior temporal areas, as well as superior parietal, primary motor, and premotor areas in the left hemisphere. Specific activation of the dorsal premotor cortex was associated with hand–object orientation congruency during planning and prior to any action taking place. Activity in that area and its connectivity with the lateral occipito-temporal cortex increased when planning incongruent (goal-directed) actions. The increased activity in premotor areas in trials where the orientation of the hand was incongruent to that of the object suggests a role in eliciting competing representations specified by hand postures in lateral occipito-temporal cortex.

An interesting inference drawn by some COVID-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection-even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of the immune response to a virus. This is based upon the same sort of mean-field dynamics as used in epidemiology. However, in place of the location, clinical status, and other attributes of people in an epidemiological model, we consider the state of a virus, B and T-lymphocytes, and the antibodies they generate. Our aim is to formalise some key hypotheses as to the mechanism of resistance. We present a series of simple simulations illustrating changes to the dynamics of the immune response under these hypotheses. These include attenuated viral cell entry, pre-existing cross-reactive humoral (antibody-mediated) immunity, and enhanced T-cell dependent immunity. Finally, we illustrate the potential application of this sort of model by illustrating variational inversion (using simulated data) of this model to illustrate its use in testing hypotheses. In principle, this furnishes a fast and efficient immunological assay-based on sequential serology-that provides a (1) quantitative measure of latent immunological responses and (2) a Bayes optimal classification of the different kinds of immunological response (c.f., glucose tolerance tests used to test for insulin resistance). This may be especially useful in assessing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

The social environment presents the human brain with the most complex information processing demands. The computations that the brain must perform occur in parallel, combine social and nonsocial cues, produce verbal and nonverbal signals and involve multiple cognitive systems, including memory, attention, emotion and learning. This occurs dynamically and at timescales ranging from milliseconds to years. Here, we propose that during social interactions, seven core operations interact to underwrite coherent social functioning; these operations accumulate evidence efficiently—from multiple modalities—when inferring what to do next. We deconstruct the social brain and outline the key components entailed for successful human–social interaction. These include (i) social perception; (ii) social inferences, such as mentalizing; (iii) social learning; (iv) social signaling through verbal and nonverbal cues; (v) social drives (e.g. how to increase one’s status); (vi) determining the social identity of agents, including oneself and (vii) minimizing uncertainty within the current social context by integrating sensory signals and inferences. We argue that while it is important to examine these distinct aspects of social inference, to understand the true nature of the human social brain, we must also explain how the brain integrates information from the social world.

Highlights • New (hierarchical) generative model for linguistic interactions. • Builds on active inference formulations of dyadic interactions. • We simulate agents that ask and answer questions together. • Theta-gamma coupling emerges from belief updating under this framework., This paper presents a biologically plausible generative model and inference scheme that is capable of simulating communication between synthetic subjects who talk to each other. Building on active inference formulations of dyadic interactions, we simulate linguistic exchange to explore generative models that support dialogues. These models employ high-order interactions among abstract (discrete) states in deep (hierarchical) models. The sequential nature of language processing mandates generative models with a particular factorial structure—necessary to accommodate the rich combinatorics of language. We illustrate linguistic communication by simulating a synthetic subject who can play the ‘Twenty Questions’ game. In this game, synthetic subjects take the role of the questioner or answerer, using the same generative model. This simulation setup is used to illustrate some key architectural points and demonstrate that many behavioural and neurophysiological correlates of linguistic communication emerge under variational (marginal) message passing, given the right kind of generative model. For example, we show that theta-gamma coupling is an emergent property of belief updating, when listening to another.

The moment‐to‐moment focus of our mind's eye results from a complex interplay of voluntary and involuntary influences on attention. Previous neuroimaging studies suggest that the brain networks of voluntary versus involuntary attention can be segregated into a frontal‐versus‐parietal or a dorsal‐versus‐ventral partition—although recent work suggests that the dorsal network may be involved in both bottom‐up and top‐down attention. Research with nonhuman primates has provided evidence that a key distinction between top‐down and bottom‐up attention may be the direction of connectivity between frontal and parietal areas. Whereas typical fMRI connectivity analyses cannot disambiguate the direction of connections, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) can model directionality. Using DCM, we provide new evidence that directed connections within the dorsal attention network are differentially modulated for voluntary versus involuntary attention. These results suggest that the intraparietal sulcus exerts a baseline inhibitory effect on the frontal eye fields that is strengthened during exogenous orienting and attenuated during endogenous orienting. Furthermore, the attenuation from endogenous attention occurs even with salient peripheral cues when those cues are known to be counter predictive. Thus, directed connectivity between frontal and parietal regions of the dorsal attention network is highly influenced by the type of attention that is engaged.

To control our actions efficiently, our brain represents our body based on a combination of visual and proprioceptive cues, weighted according to how (un)reliable—how precise—each respective modality is in a given context. However, perceptual experiments in other modalities suggest that the weights assigned to sensory cues are also modulated “top-down” by attention. Here, we asked whether during action, attention can likewise modulate the weights (i.e., precision) assigned to visual versus proprioceptive information about body position. Participants controlled a virtual hand (VH) via a data glove, matching either the VH or their (unseen) real hand (RH) movements to a target, and thus adopting a ``visual'' or ``proprioceptive'' attentional set, under varying levels of visuo-proprioceptive congruence and visibility. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) revealed increased activation of the multisensory superior parietal lobe (SPL) during the VH task and increased activation of the secondary somatosensory cortex (S2) during the RH task. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) showed that these activity changes were the result of selective, diametrical gain modulations in the primary visual cortex (V1) and the S2. These results suggest that endogenous attention can balance the gain of visual versus proprioceptive brain areas, thus contextualizing their influence on multisensory areas representing the body for action.

Movement-related theta oscillations in rodent hippocampus coordinate forward sweeps of location-specific neural activity that could be used to evaluate spatial trajectories online. This raises the possibility that increases in human hippocampal theta power accompany the evaluation of upcoming spatial choices. To test this hypothesis, we measured hippocampal oscillations during a spatial planning task that closely resembles a perceptual decision-making paradigm. In this task, female and male participants searched visually for the shortest path between a start and goal location in novel mazes that contained multiple choice points, and were subsequently asked to make a spatial decision at one of those choice points. During the search/planning period, we observed ~3-6 Hz hippocampal theta power increases that were negatively correlated with subsequent decision speed, where decision speed correlated with choice accuracy. Notably, hippocampal theta power increases were preferentially induced by planning in mazes containing a sequence of choices that were initially straightforward and subsequently ambiguous. These results implicate the hippocampal theta rhythm in the searches of deep decision trees, with a particular bottleneck form.

While attention is widely recognised as central to perception, the term is often used to mean very different things. Prominent theories of attention - notably the premotor theory - relate it to planned or executed eye movements. This contrasts with the notion of attention as a gain control process that weights the information carried by different sensory channels. We draw upon recent advances in theoretical neurobiology to argue for a distinction between attentional gain mechanisms and salience attribution. The former depends upon estimating the precision of sensory data, while the latter is a consequence of the need to actively engage with the sensorium. Having established this distinction, we consider the intimate relationship between attention and salience.

The prefrontal cortex is vital for a range of cognitive processes, including working memory, attention, and decision-making. Notably, its absence impairs the performance of tasks requiring the maintenance of information through a delay period. In this paper, we formulate a rodent task—which requires maintenance of delay-period activity—as a Markov decision process and treat optimal task performance as an (active) inference problem. We simulate the behavior of a Bayes optimal mouse presented with 1 of 2 cues that instructs the selection of concurrent visual and auditory targets on a trial-by-trial basis. Formulating inference as message passing, we reproduce features of neuronal coupling within and between prefrontal regions engaged by this task. We focus on the micro-circuitry that underwrites delay-period activity and relate it to functional specialization within the prefrontal cortex in primates. Finally, we simulate the electrophysiological correlates of inference and demonstrate the consequences of lesions to each part of our in silico prefrontal cortex. In brief, this formulation suggests that recurrent excitatory connections—which support persistent neuronal activity—encode beliefs about transition probabilities over time. We argue that attentional modulation can be understood as the contextualization of sensory input by these persistent beliefs.

Many physiological and pathological changes in brain function manifest in eye-movement control. As such, assessment of oculomotion is an invaluable part of a clinical examination and affords a non-invasive window on several key aspects of neuronal computation. While oculomotion is often used to detect deficits of the sort associated with vascular or neoplastic events; subtler (e.g. pharmacological) effects on neuronal processing also induce oculomotor changes. We have previously framed oculomotor control as part of active vision, namely, a process of inference comprising two distinct but related challenges. The first is inferring where to look, and the second is inferring how to implement the selected action. In this paper, we draw from recent theoretical work on the neuromodulatory control of active inference. This allows us to simulate the sort of changes we would expect in oculomotor behaviour, following pharmacological enhancement or suppression of key neuromodulators-in terms of deciding where to look and the ensuing trajectory of the eye movement itself. We focus upon the influence of cholinergic and GABAergic agents on the speed of saccades, and consider dopaminergic and noradrenergic effects on more complex, memory-guided, behaviour. In principle, a computational approach to understanding the relationship between pharmacology and oculomotor behaviour affords the opportunity to estimate the influence of a given pharmaceutical upon neuronal function, and to use this to optimise therapeutic interventions on an individual basis.

This paper characterizes impulsive behavior using a patch-leaving paradigm and active inference—a framework for describing Bayes optimal behavior. This paradigm comprises different environments (patches) with limited resources that decline over time at different rates. The challenge is to decide when to leave the current patch for another to maximize reward. We chose this task because it offers an operational characterization of impulsive behavior, namely, maximizing proximal reward at the expense of future gain. We use a Markov decision process formulation of active inference to simulate behavioral and electrophysiological responses under different models and prior beliefs. Our main finding is that there are at least three distinct causes of impulsive behavior, which we demonstrate by manipulating three different components of the Markov decision process model. These components comprise (i) the depth of planning, (ii) the capacity to maintain and process information, and (iii) the perceived value of immediate (relative to delayed) rewards. We show how these manipulations change beliefs and subsequent choices through variational message passing. Furthermore, we appeal to the process theories associated with this message passing to simulate neuronal correlates. In future work, we will use this scheme to identify the prior beliefs that underlie different sorts of impulsive behavior—and ask whether different causes of impulsivity can be inferred from the electrophysiological correlates of choice behavior.

Significance Research into neurobiology of depression primarily focuses on its complex psychological aspects. Here we propose an alternative approach and target sensorimotor alterations—a prominent but often neglected feature of depression. We demonstrated using resting-state functional MRI data and computational modeling that top-down and bottom-up information flow in sensory and motor cortices is altered with increasing depression severity in a way that is consistent with depression symptoms. Depression-associated changes were found to be consistent across sessions, amenable to treatment and of effect size sufficiently large to predict whether somebody has mild or severe depression. These results pave the way for an avenue of research into the neural underpinnings of mental health conditions., Functional neuroimaging research on depression has traditionally targeted neural networks associated with the psychological aspects of depression. In this study, instead, we focus on alterations of sensorimotor function in depression. We used resting-state functional MRI data and dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to assess the hypothesis that depression is associated with aberrant effective connectivity within and between key regions in the sensorimotor hierarchy. Using hierarchical modeling of between-subject effects in DCM with parametric empirical Bayes we first established the architecture of effective connectivity in sensorimotor cortices. We found that in (interoceptive and exteroceptive) sensory cortices across participants, the backward connections are predominantly inhibitory, whereas the forward connections are mainly excitatory in nature. In motor cortices these parities were reversed. With increasing depression severity, these patterns are depreciated in exteroceptive and motor cortices and augmented in the interoceptive cortex, an observation that speaks to depressive symptomatology. We established the robustness of these results in a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis and by reproducing the main results in a follow-up dataset. Interestingly, with (nonpharmacological) treatment, depression-associated changes in backward and forward effective connectivity partially reverted to group mean levels. Overall, altered effective connectivity in sensorimotor cortices emerges as a promising and quantifiable candidate marker of depression severity and treatment response.

This technical note introduces adiabatic dynamic causal modelling, a method for inferring slow changes in biophysical parameters that control fluctuations of fast neuronal states. The application domain we have in mind is inferring slow changes in variables (e.g., extracellular ion concentrations or synaptic efficacy) that underlie phase transitions in brain activity (e.g., paroxysmal seizure activity). The scheme is efficient and yet retains a biophysical interpretation, in virtue of being based on established neural mass models that are equipped with a slow dynamic on the parameters (such as synaptic rate constants or effective connectivity). In brief, we use an adiabatic approximation to summarise fast fluctuations in hidden neuronal states (and their expression in sensors) in terms of their second order statistics; namely, their complex cross spectra. This allows one to specify and compare models of slowly changing parameters (using Bayesian model reduction) that generate a sequence of empirical cross spectra of electrophysiological recordings. Crucially, we use the slow fluctuations in the spectral power of neuronal activity as empirical priors on changes in synaptic parameters. This introduces a circular causality, in which synaptic parameters underwrite fast neuronal activity that, in turn, induces activity-dependent plasticity in synaptic parameters. In this foundational paper, we describe the underlying model, establish its face validity using simulations and provide an illustrative application to a chemoconvulsant animal model of seizure activity.

In this paper, we introduce a new generative model for an active inference account of preparatory and selective attention, in the context of a classic ‘cocktail party’ paradigm. In this setup, two talkers speak simultaneously and an instructive spatial cue directs attention to the left or right talker. We use this generative model to test competing hypotheses about the way that human listeners direct preparatory and selective attention. We show that assigning low precision to words at attended—relative to unattended—locations can explain why a listener reports words from a competing sentence. Under this model, temporal changes in sensory precision were not needed to account for faster reaction times with longer cue-target intervals, but were necessary to explain ramping effects on event-related potentials—resembling the contingent negative variation (CNV)—during the preparatory interval. These simulations demonstrate that behavioural and electrophysiological correlates of voluntary attention emerge from neuronally plausible belief updating or message passing and, crucially, distinguish between the effects of deploying precision in different parts of a generative model.

This technical report describes the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes during the COVID-9 coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Dynamic causal modelling is a form of complex system modelling, which uses ‘real world’ timeseries to estimate the parameters of an underlying state space model using variational Bayesian procedures. Its key contribution—in an epidemiological setting—is to embed conventional models within a larger model of sociobehavioural responses—in a way that allows for (relatively assumption-free) forecasting. One advantage of using variational Bayes is that one can progressively optimise the model via Bayesian model selection: generally, the most likely models become more expressive as more data becomes available. This report summarises the model (on 6-Nov-20), eight months after the inception of dynamic causal modelling for COVID-19. This model—and its subsequent updates—is used to provide nowcasts and forecasts of latent behavioural and epidemiological variables as an open science resource. The current report describes the underlying model structure and the rationale for the variational procedures that underwrite Bayesian model selection.

This paper addresses perceptual synthesis by comparing responses evoked by visual stimuli before and after they are recognized, depending on prior exposure. Using magnetoencephalography, we analyzed distributed patterns of neuronal activity – evoked by Mooney figures – before and after they were recognized as meaningful objects. Recognition induced changes were first seen at 100–120 ​ms, for both faces and tools. These early effects – in right inferior and middle occipital regions – were characterized by an increase in power in the absence of any changes in spatial patterns of activity. Within a later 210–230 ​ms window, a quite different type of recognition effect appeared. Regions of the brain’s value system (insula, entorhinal cortex and cingulate of the right hemisphere for faces and right orbitofrontal cortex for tools) evinced a reorganization of their neuronal activity without an overall power increase in the region. Finally, we found that during the perception of disambiguated face stimuli, a face-specific response in the right fusiform gyrus emerged at 240–290 ​ms, with a much greater latency than the well-known N170m component, and, crucially, followed the recognition effect in the value system regions. These results can clarify one of the most intriguing issues of perceptual synthesis, namely, how a limited set of high-level predictions, which is required to reduce the uncertainty when resolving the ill-posed inverse problem of perception, can be available before category-specific processing in visual cortex. We suggest that a subset of local spatial features serves as partial cues for a fast re-activation of object-specific appraisal by the value system. The ensuing top-down feedback from value system to visual cortex, in particular, the fusiform gyrus enables high levels of processing to form category-specific predictions. This descending influence of the value system was more prominent for faces than for tools, the fact that reflects different dependence of these categories on value-related information., Highlights • Recognition effects following Mooney figure disambiguation were decoded from MEG data. • Neural changes occur in 3 stages that challenge the hierarchical view of perception. • Category-specific activity in the brain’s value system precedes that in visual cortex. • Face-specific response in the right fusiform gyrus is delayed for disambiguated faces. • The top-down influence of the value system is more prominent for faces than for tools.

Delusions are, by popular definition, false beliefs that are held with certainty and resistant to contradictory evidence. They seem at odds with the notion that the brain at least approximates Bayesian inference. This is especially the case in schizophrenia, a disorder thought to relate to decreased – rather than increased – certainty in the brain's model of the world. We use an active inference Markov decision process model (a Bayes-optimal decision-making agent) to perform a simple task involving social and non-social inferences. We show that even moderate changes in some model parameters – decreasing confidence in sensory input and increasing confidence in states implied by its own (especially habitual) actions – can lead to delusions as defined above. Incorporating affect in the model increases delusions, specifically in the social domain. The model also reproduces some classic psychological effects, including choice-induced preference change, and an optimism bias in inferences about oneself. A key observation is that no change in a single parameter is both necessary and sufficient for delusions; rather, delusions arise due to conditional dependencies that create ‘basins of attraction’ which trap Bayesian beliefs. Simulating the effects of antidopaminergic antipsychotics – by reducing the model's confidence in its actions – demonstrates that the model can escape from these attractors, through this synthetic pharmacotherapy.

Functional recovery after brain damage varies widely and depends on many factors, including lesion site and extent. When a neuronal system is damaged, recovery may occur by engaging residual (e.g., perilesional) components. When damage is extensive, recovery depends on the availability of other intact neural structures that can reproduce the same functional output (i.e., degeneracy). A system’s response to damage may occur rapidly, require learning or both. Here, we simulate functional recovery from four different types of lesions, using a generative model of word repetition that comprised a default premorbid system and a less used alternative system. The synthetic lesions (i) completely disengaged the premorbid system, leaving the alternative system intact, (ii) partially damaged both premorbid and alternative systems, and (iii) limited the experience-dependent plasticity of both. The results, across 1000 trials, demonstrate that (i) a complete disconnection of the premorbid system naturally invoked the engagement of the other, (ii) incomplete damage to both systems had a much more devastating long-term effect on model performance and (iii) the effect of reducing learning capacity within each system. These findings contribute to formal frameworks for interpreting the effect of different types of lesions.

The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks.As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases.Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6.Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

BackgroundRecent reports based on conventional SEIR models suggest that the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK could overwhelm health services, with fatalities that far exceed the first wave. These models suggest non-pharmaceutical interventions would have limited impact without intermittent national lockdowns and consequent economic and health impacts. We used Bayesian model comparison to revisit these conclusions, when allowing for heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility, and viral transmission.MethodsWe used dynamic causal modelling to estimate the parameters of epidemiological models and, crucially, the evidence for alternative models of the same data. We compared SEIR models of immune status that were equipped with latent factors generating data; namely, location, symptom, and testing status. We analysed daily cases and deaths from the US, UK, Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico, Belgium, Germany, and Canada over the period 25-Jan-20 to 15-Jun-20. These data were used to estimate the composition of each country’s population in terms of the proportions of people (i) not exposed to the virus, (ii) not susceptible to infection when exposed, and (iii) not infectious when susceptible to infection.FindingsBayesian model comparison found overwhelming evidence for heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility, and transmission. Furthermore, both lockdown and the build-up of population immunity contributed to viral transmission in all but one country. Small variations in heterogeneity were sufficient to explain the large differences in mortality rates across countries. The best model of UK data predicts a second surge of fatalities will be much less than the first peak (31 vs. 998 deaths per day. 95% CI: 24-37)—substantially less than conventional model predictions. The size of the second wave depends sensitively upon the loss of immunity and the efficacy of find-test-trace-isolate-support (FTTIS) programmes.InterpretationA dynamic causal model that incorporates heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility and transmission suggests that the next wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will be much smaller than conventional models predict, with less economic and health disruption. This heterogeneity means that seroprevalence underestimates effective herd immunity and, crucially, the potential of public health programmes.Research in contextEvidence before this studyHundreds of modelling papers have been published recently, offering predictions and projections of the current coronavirus outbreak. These range from peer-reviewed publications to rapid reports from learned societies. Many, if not most, of these modelling initiatives commit to a particular kind of epidemiological model that precludes heterogeneity in viral exposure, susceptibility, and transmission. The ensuing projections can be fantastical in terms of fatalities and ensuing public health responses.Added value of this studyThis study revisits the evidence for conventional epidemiological modelling assumptions using dynamic causal modelling and Bayesian model comparison. It provides overwhelming evidence for heterogeneity, and the interaction between lockdown and herd immunity in suppressing viral transmission.Implications of all the available evidenceHeterogeneity of this sort means that low seroprevalence (

This letter considers a class of biologically plausible cost functions for neural networks, where the same cost function is minimized by both neural activity and plasticity. We show that such cost functions can be cast as a variational bound on model evidence under an implicit generative model. Using generative models based on partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDP), we show that neural activity and plasticity perform Bayesian inference and learning, respectively, by maximizing model evidence. Using mathematical and numerical analyses, we establish the formal equivalence between neural network cost functions and variational free energy under some prior beliefs about latent states that generate inputs. These prior beliefs are determined by particular constants (e.g., thresholds) that define the cost function. This means that the Bayes optimal encoding of latent or hidden states is achieved when the network's implicit priors match the process that generates its inputs. This equivalence is potentially important because it suggests that any hyperparameter of a neural network can itself be optimized—by minimization with respect to variational free energy. Furthermore, it enables one to characterize a neural network formally, in terms of its prior beliefs.

Previous studies suggest that the practice of long-term (months to years) mindfulness meditation induces structural plasticity in gray matter. However, it remains unknown whether short-term (

The theme of this special issue of the Journal of Abnormal Psychology is on predictive processing and how it can improve our fundamental understanding of neuropsychiatric disorders. Several articles focus on psychosis and demonstrate how the field of computational psychosis research has evolved and matured in recent years through the application of predictive processing theory. These articles suggest that whereas the computational mechanisms underlying psychosis may be complex, careful empirical and theoretical work-using more sophisticated models-can bridge gaps between previous results that appeared to be at odds while providing more explanatory power. There is a particular focus on processing hierarchies; defining which priors are maladaptive and at what stage of illness they become so; and finding compelling neurobiological correlates of computational processes. These articles provide a blueprint for future empirical work. This work-that is licensed theoretically by predictive processing-may improve our understanding of psychosis and its treatment and open new avenues for biomarker and therapeutic development. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Highlights • We develop a generalizable model of the representational capacities of living creatures based on the free-energy principle. • We review the free-energy formulation and its account of the emergence of representational capacities in living creatures. • We review formulations of self-assembly and pattern formation in living systems, premised on the free-energy principle. • We provide numerical demonstrations for the neuronal packet hypothesis (that Markov blankets encode stimulus features)., The aim of this paper is to leverage the free-energy principle and its corollary process theory, active inference, to develop a generic, generalizable model of the representational capacities of living creatures; that is, a theory of phenotypic representation. Given their ubiquity, we are concerned with distributed forms of representation (e.g., population codes), whereby patterns of ensemble activity in living tissue come to represent the causes of sensory input or data. The active inference framework rests on the Markov blanket formalism, which allows us to partition systems of interest, such as biological systems, into internal states, external states, and the blanket (active and sensory) states that render internal and external states conditionally independent of each other. In this framework, the representational capacity of living creatures emerges as a consequence of their Markovian structure and nonequilibrium dynamics, which together entail a dual-aspect information geometry. This entails a modest representational capacity: internal states have an intrinsic information geometry that describes their trajectory over time in state space, as well as an extrinsic information geometry that allows internal states to encode (the parameters of) probabilistic beliefs about (fictive) external states. Building on this, we describe here how, in an automatic and emergent manner, information about stimuli can come to be encoded by groups of neurons bound by a Markov blanket; what is known as the neuronal packet hypothesis. As a concrete demonstration of this type of emergent representation, we present numerical simulations showing that self-organizing ensembles of active inference agents sharing the right kind of probabilistic generative model are able to encode recoverable information about a stimulus array.

This technical note presents a dynamic causal modelling (DCM) procedure for evaluating different models of neurovascular coupling in the human brain – using combined electromagnetic (M/EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. This procedure compares the evidence for biologically informed models of neurovascular coupling using Bayesian model comparison. First, fMRI data are used to localise regionally specific neuronal responses. The coordinates of these responses are then used as the location priors in a DCM of electrophysiological responses elicited by the same paradigm. The ensuing estimates of model parameters are then used to generate neuronal drive functions, which model pre- or post-synaptic activity for each experimental condition. These functions form the input to a model of neurovascular coupling, whose parameters are estimated from the fMRI data. Crucially, this enables one to evaluate different models of neurovascular coupling, using Bayesian model comparison – asking, for example, whether instantaneous or delayed, pre- or post-synaptic signals mediate haemodynamic responses. We provide an illustrative application of the procedure using a single-subject auditory fMRI and MEG dataset. The code and exemplar data accompanying this technical note are available through the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) software., Highlights • A method is introduced for Bayesian fusion of M/EEG and BOLD fMRI data using dynamic causal modelling. • The key novel contribution is the introduction of neural drive functions, which link models of the two modalities. • Bayesian model comparison is used to select plausible hypotheses about the function of neurovascular coupling.

The clinical syndromes caused by frontotemporal lobar degeneration are heterogeneous, including the behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and progressive supranuclear palsy. Although pathologically distinct, they share many behavioural, cognitive and physiological features, which may in part arise from common deficits of major neurotransmitters such as γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Here, we quantify the GABAergic impairment and its restoration with dynamic causal modelling of a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover pharmaco-magnetoencephalography study. We analysed 17 patients with bvFTD, 15 patients with progressive supranuclear palsy, and 20 healthy age- and gender-matched controls. In addition to neuropsychological assessment and structural MRI, participants undertook two magnetoencephalography sessions using a roving auditory oddball paradigm: once on placebo and once on 10 mg of the oral GABA reuptake inhibitor tiagabine. A subgroup underwent ultrahigh-field magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurement of GABA concentration, which was reduced among patients. We identified deficits in frontotemporal processing using conductance-based biophysical models of local and global neuronal networks. The clinical relevance of this physiological deficit is indicated by the correlation between top-down connectivity from frontal to temporal cortex and clinical measures of cognitive and behavioural change. A critical validation of the biophysical modelling approach was evidence from parametric empirical Bayes analysis that GABA levels in patients, measured by spectroscopy, were related to posterior estimates of patients’ GABAergic synaptic connectivity. Further evidence for the role of GABA in frontotemporal lobar degeneration came from confirmation that the effects of tiagabine on local circuits depended not only on participant group, but also on individual baseline GABA levels. Specifically, the phasic inhibition of deep cortico-cortical pyramidal neurons following tiagabine, but not placebo, was a function of GABA concentration. The study provides proof-of-concept for the potential of dynamic causal modelling to elucidate mechanisms of human neurodegenerative disease, and explains the variation in response to candidate therapies among patients. The laminar- and neurotransmitter-specific features of the modelling framework, can be used to study other treatment approaches and disorders. In the context of frontotemporal lobar degeneration, we suggest that neurophysiological restoration in selected patients, by targeting neurotransmitter deficits, could be used to bridge between clinical and preclinical models of disease, and inform the personalized selection of drugs and stratification of patients for future clinical trials., Using biophysical modelling of data from controls and FTLD patients, on and off a GABAergic drug, combined with GABA spectroscopy, Adams et al. show that the potential restoration of neurotransmission in neurodegeneration depends on the degree of disruption to baseline physiology.

Timing emerges from a hierarchy of computations ranging from early encoding of physical duration (time sensation) to abstract time representations (time perception) suitable for storage and decisional processes. However, the neural basis of the perceptual experience of time remains elusive. To address this, we dissociate brain activity uniquely related to lower-level sensory and higher-order perceptual timing operations, using event-related fMRI. Participants compared subsecond (500 msec) sinusoidal gratings drifting with constant velocity (standard) against two probe stimuli: (1) control gratings drifting at constant velocity or (2) accelerating gratings, which induced illusory shortening of time. We tested two probe intervals: a 500-msec duration (Short) and a longer duration required for an accelerating probe to be perceived as long as the standard (Long—individually determined). On each trial, participants classified the probe as shorter or longer than the standard. This allowed for comparison of trials with an “Objective” (physical) or “Subjective” (perceived) difference in duration, based on participant classifications. Objective duration revealed responses in bilateral early extrastriate areas, extending to higher visual areas in the fusiform gyrus (at more lenient thresholds). By contrast, Subjective duration was reflected by distributed responses in a cortical/subcortical areas. This comprised the left superior frontal gyrus and the left cerebellum, and a wider set of common timing areas including the BG, parietal cortex, and posterior cingulate cortex. These results suggest two functionally independent timing stages: early extraction of duration information in sensory cortices and Subjective experience of duration in a higher-order cortical–subcortical timing areas.

Summary Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a differential electrophysiological response measuring cortical adaptability to unpredictable stimuli. MMN is consistently attenuated in patients with psychosis. However, the genetics of MMN are uncharted, limiting the validation of MMN as a psychosis endophenotype. Here, we perform a transcriptome-wide association study of 728 individuals, which reveals 2 genes (FAM89A and ENGASE) whose expression in cortical tissues is associated with MMN. Enrichment analyses of neurodevelopmental expression signatures show that genes associated with MMN tend to be overexpressed in the frontal cortex during prenatal development but are significantly downregulated in adulthood. Endophenotype ranking value calculations comparing MMN and three other candidate psychosis endophenotypes (lateral ventricular volume and two auditory-verbal learning measures) find MMN to be considerably superior. These results yield promising insights into sensory processing in the cortex and endorse the notion of MMN as a psychosis endophenotype., Graphical abstract, Highlights • Expression of FAM89A and ENGASE is associated with reduced mismatch negativity (MMN) • Genes regulating neurotransmitter levels increase in MMN transcriptome-wide association • Genes influencing MMN are underexpressed in adult brain cortex • MMN ranks above verbal memory and ventricular volume as psychosis endophenotype, Bhat et al. identify two genes, FAM89A and ENGASE, whose expression in cortical tissue is negatively associated with mismatch negativity (MMN), an electrophysiological measure of cortical responses to unexpected sensory stimuli. They find enrichment of neurotransmission-regulating genes in these associations and endorse MMN as an endophenotype for psychosis.

Choosing actions that result in advantageous outcomes is a fundamental function of nervous systems. All computational decision-making models contain a mechanism that controls the variability of (or confidence in) action selection, but its neural implementation is unclear—especially in humans. We investigated this mechanism using two influential decision-making frameworks: active inference (AI) and reinforcement learning (RL). In AI, the precision (inverse variance) of beliefs about policies controls action selection variability—similar to decision ‘noise’ parameters in RL—and is thought to be encoded by striatal dopamine signaling. We tested this hypothesis by administering a ‘go/no-go’ task to 75 healthy participants, and measuring striatal dopamine 2/3 receptor (D2/3R) availability in a subset (n = 25) using [11C]-(+)-PHNO positron emission tomography. In behavioral model comparison, RL performed best across the whole group but AI performed best in participants performing above chance levels. Limbic striatal D2/3R availability had linear relationships with AI policy precision (P = 0.029) as well as with RL irreducible decision ‘noise’ (P = 0.020), and this relationship with D2/3R availability was confirmed with a ‘decision stochasticity’ factor that aggregated across both models (P = 0.0006). These findings are consistent with occupancy of inhibitory striatal D2/3Rs decreasing the variability of action selection in humans., Cerebral Cortex, 30 (6), ISSN:1047-3211, ISSN:1460-2199

Highlights • The hippocampus is involved in both memory recall and online prediction. • Within a predictive coding framework, opposing hippocampal-neocortical interactions accompany recall and prediction. • Here, we propose recall and prediction differentially route information within the cortical microcircuit. • By weighting prediction errors, neuromodulation sets the dominant processing mode. • In this framework, memory recall is cast as arising from fictive prediction errors., The hippocampus is crucial for episodic memory, but it is also involved in online prediction. Evidence suggests that a unitary hippocampal code underlies both episodic memory and predictive processing, yet within a predictive coding framework the hippocampal-neocortical interactions that accompany these two phenomena are distinct and opposing. Namely, during episodic recall, the hippocampus is thought to exert an excitatory influence on the neocortex, to reinstate activity patterns across cortical circuits. This contrasts with empirical and theoretical work on predictive processing, where descending predictions suppress prediction errors to ‘explain away’ ascending inputs via cortical inhibition. In this hypothesis piece, we attempt to dissolve this previously overlooked dialectic. We consider how the hippocampus may facilitate both prediction and memory, respectively, by inhibiting neocortical prediction errors or increasing their gain. We propose that these distinct processing modes depend upon the neuromodulatory gain (or precision) ascribed to prediction error units. Within this framework, memory recall is cast as arising from fictive prediction errors that furnish training signals to optimise generative models of the world, in the absence of sensory data.

The influence of global BOLD fluctuations on resting state functional connectivity in fMRI data remains a topic of debate, with little consensus. In this study, we assessed the effects of global signal regression (GSR) on effective connectivity within and between resting state networks (RSNs) - as estimated with dynamic causal modelling (DCM) for resting state fMRI (rsfMRI). DCM incorporates a forward (generative) model that quantifies the contribution of different types of noise (including global measurement noise), effective connectivity, and (neuro)vascular processes to functional connectivity measurements. DCM analyses were applied to two different designs; namely, longitudinal and cross-sectional designs. In the modelling of longitudinal designs, we considered four extensive longitudinal resting state fMRI datasets with a total number of 20 subjects. In the analysis of cross-sectional designs, we used rsfMRI data from 361 subjects from the Human Connectome Project. We hypothesized that (1) GSR would have no discernible impact on effective connectivity estimated with DCM, and (2) GSR would be reflected in the parameters representing global measurement noise. Additionally, we performed comparative analyses of information gain with and without GSR. Our results showed negligible to small effects of GSR on effective connectivity within small (separately estimated) RSNs. However, although the effect sizes were small, there was substantial to conclusive evidence for an effect of GSR on connectivity parameters. For between-network connectivity, we found two important effects: the effect of GSR on between-network effective connectivity (averaged over all connections) was negligible to small, while the effect of GSR on individual connections was non-negligible. In the cross-sectional (but not in the longitudinal) data, some connections showed substantial to conclusive evidence for an effect of GSR. Contrary to our expectations, we found either no effect (in the longitudinal designs) or a non-specific (cross-sectional design) effect of GSR on parameters characterising (global) measurement noise. Data without GSR were found to be more informative than data with GSR; however, in small resting state networks the precision of posterior estimates was greater after GSR. In conclusion, GSR is a minor concern in DCM studies; however, quantitative interpretation of between-network connections (as opposed to average between-network connectivity) and noise parameters should be treated with some caution. The Kullback-Leibler divergence of the posterior from the prior (i.e., information gain) - together with the precision of posterior estimates - might offer a useful measure to assess the appropriateness of GSR in resting state fMRI., Highlights • We investigated the effect of GSR on parameters estimated with DCM. • We found negligible to small effects of GSR in small-scale resting state networks. • Small effects of GSR on the net influence between networks were observed. • Results showed non-negligible effects of GSR on individual between-network connections. • The effect of GSR on noise parameters was either absent or unspecific, depending on design.

Two important theories in cognitive neuroscience are predictive coding and the global workspace theory. A key research task is to understand how these two theories relate to one another, and particularly, how the brain transitions from a predictive early state to the eventual engagement of a brain-scale state (the global workspace). To address this question, we present a source-localisation of EEG responses evoked by the local-global task – an experimental paradigm that engages a predictive hierarchy, which encompasses the global workspace. The results of our source reconstruction suggest three-phases of processing. The first phase involves the sensory (here auditory) regions of the superior temporal lobe and predicts sensory regularities over a short timeframe (as per the local effect). The third phase is brain-scale, involving inferior frontal, as well as inferior and superior parietal regions; consistent with a global neuronal workspace (as per the global effect). Crucially, our analysis suggests that there is an intermediate (second) phase, involving modulatory interactions between inferior frontal and superior temporal regions. Furthermore, sedation with propofol reduces modulatory interactions in the second phase. This selective effect is consistent with a predictive coding explanation of sedation, with propofol acting on descending predictions of the precision of prediction errors; thereby constraining access to the global neuronal workspace.

Metastability is a key source of itinerant dynamics in the brain; namely, spontaneous spatiotemporal reorganization of neuronal activity. This itinerancy has been the focus of numerous dynamic functional connectivity (DFC) analyses - developed to characterize the formation and dissolution of distributed functional patterns over time, using resting state fMRI. However, aside from technical and practical controversies, these approaches cannot recover the neuronal mechanisms that underwrite itinerant (e.g., metastable) dynamics-due to their descriptive, model-free nature. We argue that effective connectivity (EC) analyses are more apt for investigating the neuronal basis of metastability. To this end, we appeal to biologically-grounded models (i.e., dynamic causal modelling, DCM) and dynamical systems theory (i.e., heteroclinic sequential dynamics) to create a probabilistic, generative model of haemodynamic fluctuations. This model generates trajectories in the parametric space of EC modes (i.e., states of connectivity) that characterize functional brain architectures. In brief, it extends an established spectral DCM, to generate functional connectivity data features that change over time. This foundational paper tries to establish the model's face validity by simulating non-stationary fMRI time series and recovering key model parameters (i.e., transition probabilities among connectivity states and the parametric nature of these states) using variational Bayes. These data are further characterized using Bayesian model comparison (within and between subjects). Finally, we consider practical issues that attend applications and extensions of this scheme. Importantly, the scheme operates within a generic Bayesian framework - that can be adapted to study metastability and itinerant dynamics in any non-stationary time series.

Survival requires the implementation of adaptive changes that demand energy resources. The efficient regulation of energetic resources thus plays a critical role in enabling systems to adapt to the demands of their internal and external environments. The framework of active inference explains how living organisms can build probabilistic models that enable them to predict, track, and regulate energy expenditure in the short and long run. The aim of the paper is to characterize the physiological changes that accompany stress, and the relationship between these changes and the loss of confidence in a system's predictions about its internal and external milieu—ultimately manifesting as depressive symptomatology. We identify the systems that underwrite goal-directed behavior, and the neuroendocrine and immunological systems, as the hierarchical controller that regulates energy resources. In doing so, we establish an etiological pathway from allostatic overload to depression via active inference.