1. Increased Transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in a Japanese Population
- Author
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Hiroto Shinomiya, Chie Taniguchi, Hitomi Nagai, Hideo Tanaka, Yuki Takahashi, Atsushi Hirayama, Chika Shirai, and Tsuyoshi Ogata
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0301 basic medicine ,Cross-sectional study ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,household contact ,Alpha (ethology) ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,symbols.namesake ,0302 clinical medicine ,Japan ,Medicine ,Humans ,transmissibility ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Transmission risks and rates ,Poisson regression ,N501Y ,Index case ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Absolute risk reduction ,COVID-19 ,Transmissibility (vibration) ,030104 developmental biology ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Alpha variant ,symbols ,Japanese ,business ,Demography - Abstract
To assess the relative transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant compared to the pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 in Japan, we performed a cross-sectional study to determine the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in household contacts before and after the Alpha variant became dominant in Osaka. We accessed 290 household contacts whose index cases were diagnosed between 1 and 20 December 2020 (the third epidemic group), at a time when Osaka was free of the Alpha variant. We also accessed 398 household contacts whose index cases were diagnosed between 20 April and 3 May 2021 (the fourth epidemic group), by which time the Alpha variant had become dominant. We identified 124 household contacts whose index case was determined positive for the Alpha variant (Alpha group) in this fourth group. The secondary attack rates in the fourth group (34.7%) and the Alpha group (38.7%) were significantly higher than that in the third group (19.3%, p <, 0.001). Multivariable Poisson regression analysis with a robust error variance showed a significant excess risk in the fourth group (1.90, 95% CI = 1.47–2.48) and the Alpha group (2.34, 95% CI = 1.71–3.21). This finding indicates that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant has an approximately 1.9–2.3-fold higher transmissibility than the pre-existing virus in the Japanese population.
- Published
- 2021
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