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BACKGROUND: Deferrals due to low hemoglobin are time-consuming and costly for blood donors and donation services. Furthermore, accepting donations from those with low hemoglobin could represent a significant safety issue. One approach to reduce them is to use hemoglobin concentration alongside donor characteristics to inform personalized inter-donation intervals. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from 17,308 donors to inform a discrete event simulation model comparing personalized inter-donation intervals using "post-donation" testing (i.e., estimating current hemoglobin from that measured by a hematology analyzer at last donation) versus the current approach in England (i.e., pre-donation testing with fixed intervals of 12-weeks for men and 16-weeks for women). We reported the impact on total donations, low hemoglobin deferrals, inappropriate bleeds, and blood service costs. Personalized inter-donation intervals were defined using mixed-effects modeling to estimate hemoglobin trajectories and probability of crossing hemoglobin donation thresholds. RESULTS: The model had generally good internal validation, with predicted events similar to those observed. Over 1 year, a personalized strategy requiring ≥90% probability of being over the hemoglobin threshold, minimized adverse events (low hemoglobin deferrals and inappropriate bleeds) in both sexes and costs in women. Donations per adverse event improved from 3.4 (95% uncertainty interval 2.8, 3.7) under the current strategy to 14.8 (11.6, 19.2) in women, and from 7.1 (6.1, 8.5) to 26.9 (20.8, 42.6) in men. In comparison, a strategy incorporating early returns for those with high certainty of being over the threshold maximized total donations in both men and women, but was less favorable in terms of adverse events, with 8.4 donations per adverse event in women (7.0, 10,1) and 14.8 (12.1, 21.0) in men. DISCUSSION: Personalized inter-donation intervals using post-donation testing combined with modeling of hemoglobin trajectories can help reduce deferrals, inappropriate bleeds, and costs.

Introduction: As many countries change to opt-out systems to address organ shortages, calls for similar reform in Australia persist. Community perspectives on consent systems for donation remain under-researched, therefore Australian perspectives on consent systems and their effectiveness in increasing donation rates were explored. Design: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, participants completed a survey presenting opt-in, soft opt-out, and hard opt-out systems, with corresponding descriptions. Participants chose the system they perceived as most effective and described their reasoning. Results: Participants (N = 509) designated soft opt-out as the most effective system (52.3%; hard opt-out 33.7%; opt-in 13.7%). Those who identified with an ethnic/cultural group or were not registered had greater odds of choosing opt-out. Six themes identified in thematic analysis reflected their reasoning: (1) who decides (individual, shared decision with family); (2) right to choose; (3) acceptability (ethics, fairness); and utility in overcoming barriers for (4) individuals (apathy, awareness, ease of donating, fear/avoidance of death); (5) family (easier family experience, family veto); (6) society (normalizing donation, donation as default, expanding donor pool). Choice and overcoming individual barriers were more frequently endorsed themes for opt-in and opt-out, respectively. Discussion: Results suggested the following insights regarding system effectiveness: uphold/prioritize individual's recorded donation decision above family wishes; involve family in decision making if no donation preference is recorded; retain a register enabling opt-in and opt-out for unequivocal decisions and promoting individual control; and maximize ease of registering. Future research should establish whether systems considered effective are also acceptable to the community to address organ shortages.

Background: We explore the role of trust, distrust, and the prevailing socio-political context to better understand why people from ethnic minority communities are less likely to be blood donors compared to people from White communities. Recruiting more ethnic minority donors will enhance representativeness, reduce inequality, and help meet the clinical need to increase the proportion of blood with Ro Kell antigen to treat Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). Study design and methods: A 2 (donor-status: current donor; non-donors) by 4 (ethnicity: People from Asian, Black, Mixed and White ethnic backgrounds) quasi-experiment (N = 981) was conducted to examine perceptions of trust/distrust and their influence on willingness to donate blood, within the socio-political context of the Windrush scandal and Brexit. Results: We identified five domains of trust (‘National Health Service [NHS] and staff,’ ‘NHS Blood and Transplant,’ ‘outgroups,’ ‘individuals’ and ‘politics’), and a single domain of conditional distrust domain. Trust across all the domains was lower, and ‘conditional distrust’ higher for ethnic minorities. Trust in ‘individuals’ and ‘NHSBT’ predicted willingness to donate in non-donors from ethnic minorities and White non-donors, respectively. Concerns about the Windrush scandal were related to lower political trust. Viewing Brexit as ‘positive for the UK’ was related to lower trust across domains and reduced willingness to donate in White non-donors through its influence on reduced trust in NHSBT. Conclusion: Distinct domains of trust and distrust are identified, and targeting ‘trust in others’ through conditional cooperation is recommended as a strategy to increase donor numbers from ethnic minority communities.

The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the veterinary health behaviours of farmers and how this impacts their implementation of disease control measures. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by others, though that may be sub-optimal for the population. Failing to account for socio-behavioural properties may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models. We investigated the role of heterogeneity in vaccine response across a population of farmers on epidemic outbreaks amongst livestock, caused by pathogens with differential speed of spread over spatial landscapes of farms for two counties in England (Cumbria and Devon). Under different compositions of three vaccine behaviour groups (precautionary, reactionary, non-vaccination), we evaluated from population- and individual-level perspectives the optimum threshold distance to premises with notified infection that would trigger responsive vaccination by the reactionary vaccination group. We demonstrate a divergence between population and individual perspectives in the optimal scale of reactive voluntary vaccination response. In general, minimising the population-level perspective cost requires a broader reactive uptake of the intervention, whilst optimising the outcome for the average individual increased the likelihood of larger scale disease outbreaks. When the relative cost of vaccination was low and the majority of premises had undergone precautionary vaccination, then adopting a perspective that optimised the outcome for an individual gave a broader spatial extent of reactive response compared to a perspective wanting to optimise outcomes for everyone in the population. Under our assumed epidemiological context, the findings identify livestock disease intervention receptiveness and cost combinations where one would expect strong disagreement between the intervention stringency that is best from the perspective of a stakeholder responsible for supporting the livestock industry compared to a sole livestock owner. Were such discord anticipated and achieving a consensus view across perspectives desired, the findings may also inform those managing veterinary health policy the requisite reduction in intervention cost and/or the required extent of nurturing beneficial community attitudes towards interventions.

Background Whole blood donors may experience post-donation symptoms such as fatigue, dizziness, or headache after blood donation, which could influence donor retention. We aimed to examine post-donation symptoms during 1 week after whole blood donation, investigate donor characteristics associated with symptoms, and evaluate associations between symptoms and donor return. Methods During 1 week, whole blood donors who donated successfully at one of the collection centers in The Netherlands were invited to participate. Three thousand seventy six donors filled in a diary, assessing post-donation symptoms during days 1 to 6 after donation. We used linear mixed models analyses to determine the change in post-donation symptoms after donation for male and female donors separately. Furthermore, we investigated associations between post-donation symptoms and donors' physical characteristics using multivariable regression and determined associations between symptoms and donor return. Results Donors reported fatigue as the most common symptom, with approximately 3% of donors experiencing severe problems at the first day after donation. Multiple symptoms improved significantly up to day 3 after whole blood donation. Age, BMI, blood pressure (male donors), and blood volume (female donors) were significantly associated with post-donation symptoms. Donors with less fatigue after whole blood donation were more likely to return for their next donation within 31 days after receiving an invitation. Conclusion Post-symptoms improve up to 3 days after whole blood donation. Our results may help blood collection centers to identify donors more prone to post-donation symptoms and provide personalized information about the presence and course of post-donation symptoms, possibly increasing donor return rates.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with psychological distress. In addition to physical effects including fatigue and cognitive impairment, contracting COVID-19 itself may also be related to subsequent negative mental health outcomes. The present study reports data from a longitudinal, national survey of the UK adult population investigating whether contracting suspected or confirmed COVID-19 at the early stages of the pandemic (March–May 2020) was associated with poorer mental health outcomes in May/June 2020, October/November 2020 and June/July 2021. A quota survey design and a sampling frame that permitted recruitment of a national sample (n = 3077) were utilised. Experience of contracting COVID-19 during the first UK lockdown was assessed along with levels of depression, anxiety, mental wellbeing and loneliness. Around 9% of participants reported contracting COVID-19 in March/May 2020 (waves 1–3) with just under 13% of the overall sample reporting COVID-19 at any one of the first three time points. Compared to those without probable COVID-19 infection, participants with probable COVID-19 had poorer mental health outcomes at follow-up with these effects lasting up to 13 months (e.g., May/June 2020:ORdepression = 1.70, p anxiety = 1.61, p = 0.002; Oct/Nov 2020, ORdepression = 1.82, p anxiety 1.56, p = 0.013; June/July 2021, ORdepression = 2.01, p anxiety = 1.67, p = 0.008). Having a pre-existing mental health condition was also associated with greater odds of having probable COVID-19 during the study (OR = 1.31, p = 0.016). The current study demonstrates that contracting probable COVID-19 at the early stage of the pandemic was related to long-lasting associations with mental health and the relationship between mental health status and probable COVID-19 is bidirectional.

High-cost cooperation directed towards strangers is difficult to explain from an evolutionary perspective. Here, it is argued that by studying the behaviours, motivations, and preferences of real-world high-cost cooperators - blood and organ donors - insights can be uncovered into the mechanisms supporting cooperation. In this respect, this article details two novel mechanisms to enhance cooperation in the face of free-riding, (1) 'reactive reluctant altruism' whereby people help because they do not trust others to help and (2) the 'Good Shepherd' effect whereby cooperation is enhanced when people observed others cooperate although the social norm is to free-ride. Finally, it is argued that repeated acts of high-cost cooperation are sustained by a self-selection process based on the reinforcing effect of warm-glow.

Objectives: To determine the motivators and barriers to COVID-19 convalescent plasma donation by those in the United Kingdom who have been diagnosed with or who have had symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but who have not donated. Background: Convalescent plasma from people recovered from COVID-19 with sufficient antibody titres is a potential option for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. However, to date, recruiting and retaining COVID-19 convalescent plasma donors has been challenging. Understanding why those eligible to donate COVID-19 convalescent plasma have not donated is critical to developing recruitment campaigns. Methods/Materials: A total of 419 UK residents who indicated that they had been infected with COVID-19 and who lived within 50 km of sites collecting COVID-19 convalescent plasma completed an online survey between 25th June and 5th July 2020. Respondents completed items assessing their awareness of convalescent plasma, motivations and barriers to donation and intention to donate COVID-19 convalescent plasma. Results: Awareness of COVID-19 convalescent plasma was low. Exploratory factor analysis identified six motivations and seven barriers to donating. A stronger sense of altruism through adversity and moral and civic duty were positively related to intention to donate, whereas generic donation fears was negatively related. Conclusions: Once potential donors are aware of convalescent plasma, interventions should focus on the gratitude and reciprocity that those eligible to donate feel, along with a focus on (potentially) helping family and norms of what people ought to do. Fears associated with donation should not be neglected, and strategies that have been successfully used tor recruit whole-blood donors should be adapted and deployed to recruit COVID-19 convalescent plasma donors.

Background Influenza vaccine uptake remains low worldwide, inflicting substantial costs to public health. Messages promoting social welfare have been shown to increase vaccination intentions, and it has been recommended that health professionals communicate the socially beneficial aspects of vaccination. We provide the first test whether this prosocial vaccination hypothesis applies to actual vaccination behaviour of high-risk patients. Methods In a field experiment at a tertiary care public hospital in Istanbul, Turkey, we compare the effects of two motivational messages for promoting vaccination. Using a between-subjects single-blind experimental design patients were randomly assigned to frames emphasizing the vaccine’s benefits to self (n = 125) or social benefits (n = 119). Free influenza vaccination was offered to each patient. Results Among 222 patients who were not vaccinated for the season prior to the study (72% medically assessed to be at high risk), 42% in the self-benefit frame chose to receive a vaccination compared with 34% in the social-benefits frame, but the difference was not statistically significant (aOR = 1.63, 95% CI 0.90 to 2.95, p = 0.108). Reasons for vaccination focused primarily on self-benefit (67%) rather than social-benefit (5%). Exploratory analysis showed that the effect of messages depended on patient perception of risk group membership (aORHigh / aORLow = 5.59, 95% CI 1.30 to 24.05, p = 0.021). In particular, emphasis on self-benefit was more influential among patients who perceived themselves to be in the risk group (aOR = 6.22, 95% CI 1.69 to 22.88, p = 0.006). Conclusions In contrast to the literature observing intentions of low-risk populations, we found no evidence that social-benefit motivates actual vaccination behaviour among a high-risk patient population. Instead, those who self-categorize as being in the high risk group are more motivated by the self-benefit message. Our results suggest that a stratified approach can improve coverage: even if an emphasis on social-benefit could be effective among low-risk groups, an emphasis on self-benefit holds more promise for increasing vaccination in medical organizational settings where high-risk groups are prevalent. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04230343 Retrospectively registered on the 13th January 2020.

Objectives: Suicide is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity, as measured by cortisol levels, has been identified as one potential risk factor. Evidence has indicated that childhood trauma is associated with dysregulated cortisol reactivity to stress in adulthood. The current study investigated for the first time whether childhood trauma and daily stressors and emotions were associated with diurnal cortisol levels over a 7-day study in individuals vulnerable to suicide. Methods: 142 participants were categorized according to their suicidal history into three groups: suicide attempt, suicidal ideation or control group. Participants completed questionnaires before commencing a 7-day study. Cortisol samples were provided immediately upon waking, at 15 mins, 30 mins, 45 mins, 3 hours, 6 hours, 9 hours and 12 hours on 7 consecutive days. Measures of daily stressors, mood, defeat and entrapment were completed at the end of each day. Results: Participants in the suicide attempt and ideation groups released significantly lower cortisol upon awakening (CAR) and had a tendency towards flatter wake-peak to 12 hour (WP-12) cortisol slopes compared to controls. Childhood trauma was found to be associated with significantly lower CAR and a tendency towards flatter WP-12 cortisol slope. Childhood trauma also had an indirect effect on suicide vulnerability group membership via lower daily CAR levels. Lower CAR was associated with increased suicide ideation at 1-month but not 6-months. Daily stress and emotion measures were not associated with cortisol levels. Conclusions: This is the first 7-day daily diary investigation of naturally fluctuating cortisol levels in individuals vulnerable to suicide. The results indicate that dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity is associated with suicidal ideation and behavior. Childhood trauma appears to be an important distal factor associated with HPA-axis dysregulation.

Background Decision-making under uncertainty may be influenced by an individual’s personality. The primary aim was to explore associations between surgeon personality traits and colorectal anastomotic decision-making. Methods Colorectal surgeons worldwide participated in a two-part online survey. Part 1 evaluated surgeon characteristics using the Big Five Inventory to measure personality (five domains: agreeableness; conscientiousness; extraversion; emotional stability; openness) in response to scenarios presented in Part 2 involving anastomotic decisions (i.e. rejoining the bowel with/without temporary stomas, or permanent diversion with end colostomy). Anastomotic decisions were compared using repeated-measure ANOVA. Mean scores of traits domains were compared with normative data using two-tailed t tests. Results In total, 186 surgeons participated, with 127 surgeons completing both parts of the survey (68.3 per cent). One hundred and thirty-one surgeons were male (70.4 per cent) and 144 were based in Europe (77.4 per cent). Forty-one per cent (77 surgeons) had begun independent practice within the last 5 years. Surgeon personality differed from the general population, with statistically significantly higher levels of emotional stability (3.25 versus 2.97 respectively), lower levels of agreeableness (3.03 versus 3.74), extraversion (2.81 versus 3.38) and openness (3.19 versus 3.67), and similar levels of conscientiousness (3.42 versus 3.40 (all P Conclusion Colorectal surgeons have different personality traits from the general population. Certain traits seem to be associated with anastomotic decision-making but only in specific scenarios. Further exploration of the association of personality, risk-taking, and decision-making in surgery is necessary.

Previous research has established links between chronic pain and impaired cognitive ability, as well as between chronic pain and anxiety, in osteoarthritis. Furthermore, there is evidence linking risk of osteoarthritis to lower educational attainment. However, the inter-play of these factors with key social factors (e.g., social deprivation) at the early stages of osteoarthritis are not understood. Here, we used data from waves 4, 5, 6 and 7 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 971) and selected a subsample of respondents who initially did not report a diagnosis of osteoarthritis until wave 6. We used path models to test how social deprivation, education and anxiety, before diagnosis (waves 4 and 5), affect the relationship between cognitive ability, pain and limitations in activities of daily living following diagnosis (waves 6 and 7). We show that high social deprivation before diagnosis predicts greater limitations in activities of daily living after diagnosis, with this effect partly mediated by impaired cognitive ability. We also find that higher educational attainment before diagnosis may protect against limitations in activities of daily living after diagnosis via better cognitive ability and lower anxiety. Therefore, improving cognitive ability and managing anxiety may mitigate the associations of social deprivation and low educational attainment with limitations in activities of daily living.

Although medical mistrust (MM) may be an impediment to public health interventions, no MM scale has been validated across countries and the assessment of MM has not been explored using item response theory, which allows generalisation beyond the sampled data. We aimed to determine the dimensionality of a brief MM measure across four countries through Mokken analysis and Graded Response Modelling. Analysis of 1468 participants from UK ( n = 1179), Ireland ( n = 191), India ( n = 49) and Malaysia (n = 49) demonstrated that MM items formed a hierarchical, unidimensional measure, which is very informative about high levels of MM. Possible item reduction and scoring changes were also demonstrated. This study demonstrates that this brief MM measure is suitable for international studies as it is unidimensional across countries, cross cultural, and shows that minor adjustments will not impact on the assessment of MM when using these items.

Information seeking has generally been seen as an adaptive response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it may also result in negative outcomes on mental health. The present study tests whether reporting COVID-related information seeking throughout the pandemic is associated with subsequently poorer mental health outcomes. A quota-based, non-probability-sampling methodology was used to recruit a nationally representative sample. COVID-related information seeking was assessed at six waves along with symptoms of depression, anxiety, mental wellbeing and loneliness (N = 1945). Hierarchical linear modelling was used to assess the relationship between COVID-related information seeking and mental health outcomes. Information seeking was found to reduce over time. Overall, women, older and higher socioeconomic group individuals reported higher levels of information seeking. At waves 1-4 (March-June 2020) the majority of participants reported that they sought information on Covid 1-5 times per day, this decreased to less than once per day in waves 5 and 6 (July-November 2020). Higher levels of information seeking were associated with poorer mental health outcomes, particularly clinically significant levels of anxiety. Use of a non-probability sampling method may have been a study limitation, nevertheless, reducing or managing information seeking behaviour may be one method to reduce anxiety during pandemics and other public health crises.

BACKGROUND Knee pain is a major source of distress and disability, with pain progression highly variable between individuals. Previous studies defining pain trajectories have all used a single measure of pain, and these differ across studies. Different measures reflect diverse pain mechanisms. To ascertain the clinical utility of pain trajectories, we explored associations between opioid and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use. METHODS We model pain trajectories using two measures-Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain (ICOAP) and the painDETECT, in 2141 participants, across 3 waves (the baseline, 1- and 3-year assessments) of the Knee Pain In the Community (KPIC) cohort. RESULTS Latent class growth analysis identified six trajectories using ICOAP subscales (High-Stable, Low-Stable, Moderate Worsening, Moderate Recovering, Worsening, and Recovering) and four trajectories using painDETECT (High-stable, Low-stable, Moderate Worsening, and Moderate Recovering). There was a high degree of correspondence between people assigned to pain trajectories between ICOAP intermittent and constant subscales, but less so using painDETECT. Opioid use was associated with ICOAP trajectories only (e.g., High-Stable and Worsening intermittent ICOAP trajectories) and in women. CONCLUSION Different measures of pain produce different patterns of pain progression and these are differentially related to medication use. Opioid use is linked to trajectories of pain based on the impact of pain on behavior and not pain symptoms. Thus, managing pain's behavioral impact is more central to understanding opioid use than managing pain symptoms. These findings support more in-depth questioning about the type of pain and its progression in clinical practice.

A considerable proportion of end-of-life decisions are made by the patient’s next-of-kin, who can be asked to follow the substituted judgment standard and decide based on the patient’s wishes. The question of whether these surrogate decision makers are actually able to do so has become an important issue. In this study, we examined how the likelihood of surrogates conforming to the substituted judgment standard varies with individual differences in mortality acceptance and confidence in their decision making. We recruited 153 participants in romantic relationships between 18 and 80 years old from the general population. We asked them to make hypothetical end-of-life decisions for themselves and on behalf of their partner, as well as predict what their partner would do, and complete a series of questionnaires. Participants predicted that their partner would make similar decisions to their own but were more likely to accept a life-saving treatment that could result in reduced quality of life on their partner’s behalf than for themselves. Decisions made by older adults were more likely to conform to the substituted judgment standard, which is encouraging given that they are more likely to be confronted with these decisions in real life, although this was not due to differences in mortality acceptance. Older adults were also more likely to have had previous discussions with their partner and thereby know that person’s wishes and feel confident that they made the right decision, but these factors did not affect their likelihood of conforming to the substituted judgment standard. This shows that encouraging discussions about end of life among families would ease the decision process, but more work is needed to ensure that surrogates can adhere to the substituted judgment standard.

Abstract. A considerable proportion of financial decisions are made by agents acting on behalf of other people. Although people are more cautious for others when making medical decisions, this does not seem to be the case for economic decisions. However, studies with large amounts of money are particularly absent from the literature, which precludes a clear comparison to studies in the medical domain. To address this gap, we investigated the effect of outcome magnitude in two experiments where participants made choices between safe and risky options. Decision-makers were not more cautious for others over large amounts. In fact, risk-taking was accentuated for large amounts in the gain domain. We did not find self-other differences in the loss domain for either outcome magnitude. This suggests that the caution observed in medical decisions does not replicate in financial decisions with large amounts, or at least not in the same way. These results echo the concerns that have been raised about excessive risk-taking by financial agents.

Background Against a background of declining blood donor numbers, recruiting new donors is critical for the effective operations of healthcare providers. Thus, interventions are needed to recruit new blood donors. Purpose We provide initial evidence for Voluntary Reciprocal Altruism (VRA) to enhance nondonors’ willingness to become blood donors. VRA interventions involve asking two questions: one on accepting a blood transfusion if needed and one on willingness to donate. As early trials often use self-reports of willingness to perform blood donation behavior, we derive a correction factor to better estimate actual behavior. Finally, we explore the effect of VRA interventions on two prosocial emotions: gratitude and guilt. Methods Across three experiments (two in the UK and one in Australia: Total N = 1,208 nondonors) we manipulate VRA messages and explore how they affect both reported willingness to make a one-off or repeat blood donation and influence click through to blood donation, organ donation and volunteering registration sites (behavioral proxies). We report data from a longitudinal cohort (N = 809) that enables us to derive a correction for self-reported behavioral willingness. Results Across the three experiments, we show that exposure to a question that asks about accepting a transfusion if needed increased willingness to donate blood with some spillover to organ donor registration. We also show that gratitude has an independent effect on donation and report a behavioral correction factor of .10. Conclusions Asking nondonors about accepting a transfusion if needed is likely to be an effective strategy to increase new donor numbers.

The aim of this study was to compare the relationship between two health outcomes (pain and self-reported health) and personality while accounting for heterogeneity in arthritic disease. Traditionally health psychology and other health research has treated patients’ disease experiences as homogeneous but stratified medicine suggests that treating a disease as homogenous might over-generalise findings and miss important effects. We present a longitudinal analysis over 14 years, on a subsample of 443 arthritic respondents from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Using linear regressions, we modelled how the Big Five domains of personality (wave 5) moderated the relationship between past health (at wave 1) and present health (at wave 7). Then, to model heterogeneity in arthritis experience we included assignment to 4 different sub-groups based on their experience of pain progression. The results showed that modelling heterogeneity led to the identification of specific stratified effects for personality (neuroticism, agreeableness, and extraversion) not observed when these data are model treating the sample as homogenous. For example, higher agreeableness was associated with worse pain for those in a sub-group reporting the greatest pain, and higher extraversion was protective against pain among those whose pain improved. The results highlight the importance of modelling heterogeneity of disease.

Suicide is a global health issue. Dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity, as measured by cortisol levels, has been identified as one potential risk factor. Evidence is emerging to suggest that different psychological factors may be associated with increased resilience and vulnerability in this context. The current study investigated whether trait resilience, social support, socially prescribed perfectionism, trait worry and trait impulsivity influenced the cortisol awakening response (CAR) over a 7-day study in individuals vulnerable to suicide. 142 participants with a history of suicidal attempt or ideation (suicide vulnerability group; n = 95) and with no suicide risk history (control group; n = 47) were recruited. Participants completed baseline questionnaires before commencing a 7-day study where they provided cortisol samples immediately upon waking, at 15 min, 30 min and 45 min on 7 consecutive days. Higher worry, socially prescribed perfectionism and impulsivity, lower resilience and social support were found in the suicide vulnerability group compared to the control group. Lower levels of resilience, higher levels of socially prescribed perfectionism, worry and impulsivity were associated with significantly lower total CAR. Suicide group membership was also found to have an indirect effect on total CAR via trait worry. The current findings show for the first time, that these well-known psychological risk factors for suicide are associated with smaller total cortisol awakening responses. Researchers ought to elucidate the precise causal mechanisms linking these traits, CAR and suicide risk in order to develop interventions to help build resilience in vulnerable populations.

Background and objectives Blood donors, compared to non-donors, are more likely to show a preference to help others either by sharing resources to directly compensate those in need or indirectly by punishing those who act unfairly. Knowing the dominant cooperative preference for blood donors will inform the development of targeted interventions. We test which preference dominates and an initial intervention based on these findings. Materials and methods We report two studies. The first compares compensation and punishment preferences in blood donors and non-donors (N = 372) using a third-party-compensation-and-punishment game. Based on the results of Study 1, Study 2 (N = 151) is a feasibility experiment of an intervention based on advantageous inequality aversion ('As a healthy person, you can give blood and help those less healthy than you'.). Results Blood donors, compared to non-donors, have a preference for compensation. Organ donors have a preference for punishment. Those exposed to the advantageous inequality aversion intervention, compared to control conditions, show a greater behavioural propensity to donate blood (this was especially the case for non-donors). Conclusion Blood donors have a clear preference for direct helping through compensation that can be translated into a simple effective intervention to enhance blood donor recruitment and retention.

The Perseverative Cognition Hypothesis (proposing negative repetitive thinking has detrimental effects on physical health), has been extended to include health behaviours. This study aimed to examine relationships between perseverative cognition, stress and health behaviours.Participants (Cross-sectional and prospective associations between perseverative cognition (worry, brooding and reflection), stress and health behaviours (sleep, diet, physical activity and alcohol).Analyses demonstrated associations between worry, brooding and reflection and health behaviours, cross-sectionally and prospectively, including sleep and unhealthy snacking. Adding perseverative cognition variables to models simultaneously, only two associations remained (brooding and unhealthy snacking, worry and poorer sleep quality). Controlling for stress, only the cross-sectional association between brooding and more unhealthy snacking remained significant and no significant interactions with stress were found.This study evidences associations between components of perseverative cognition and health behaviours cross-sectionally and prospectively.

IntroductionProfessional footballers commonly experience sports-related injury and repetitive microtrauma to the foot and ankle, placing them at risk of subsequent chronic pain and osteoarthritis (OA) of the foot and ankle. Similarly, repeated heading of the ball, head/neck injuries and concussion have been implicated in later development of neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia. A recent retrospective study found that death from neurodegenerative diseases was higher among former professional soccer players compared with age matched controls. However, well-designed lifetime studies are still needed to provide evidence regarding the prevalence of these conditions and their associated risk factors in retired professional football players compared with the general male population.ObjectivesTo determine whether former professional male footballers have a higher prevalence than the general male population of: (1) foot/ankle pain and radiographic OA; and (2) cognitive and motor impairments associated with dementia and Parkinson’s disease. Secondary objectives are to identify specific football-related risk factors such as head impact/concussion for neurodegenerative conditions and foot/ankle injuries for chronic foot/ankle pain and OA.Methods and analysisThis is a cross-sectional, comparative study involving a questionnaire survey with subsamples of responders being assessed for cognitive function by telephone assessment, and foot/ankle OA by radiographic examination. A sample of 900 adult, male, ex professional footballers will be recruited and compared with a control group of 1100 age-matched general population men between 40 and 100 years old. Prevalence will be estimated per group. Poisson regression will be performed to determine prevalence ratio between the populations and logistic regression will be used to examine risk factors associated with each condition in footballers.Ethics and disseminationThis study was approved by the East Midlands-Leicester Central Research Ethics Committee on 23 January 2020 (REC ref: 19/EM/0354). The study results will be disseminated at national and international meetings and submitted for peer-review publication.

BackgroundThe effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the population's mental health and well-being are likely to be profound and long lasting.AimsTo investigate the trajectory of mental health and well-being during the first 6 weeks of lockdown in adults in the UK.MethodA quota survey design and a sampling frame that permitted recruitment of a national sample was employed. Findings for waves 1 (31 March to 9 April 2020), 2 (10 April to 27 April 2020) and 3 (28 April to 11 May 2020) are reported here. A range of mental health factors was assessed: pre-existing mental health problems, suicide attempts and self-harm, suicidal ideation, depression, anxiety, defeat, entrapment, mental well-being and loneliness.ResultsA total of 3077 adults in the UK completed the survey at wave 1. Suicidal ideation increased over time. Symptoms of anxiety, and levels of defeat and entrapment decreased across waves whereas levels of depressive symptoms did not change significantly. Positive well-being also increased. Levels of loneliness did not change significantly over waves. Subgroup analyses showed that women, young people (18–29 years), those from more socially disadvantaged backgrounds and those with pre-existing mental health problems have worse mental health outcomes during the pandemic across most factors.ConclusionsThe mental health and well-being of the UK adult population appears to have been affected in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increasing rates of suicidal thoughts across waves, especially among young adults, are concerning.

The effect of mental rotation training on ultrasound-guided regional anaesthesia (UGRA) skill acquisition is currently unknown. In this study we aimed to examine whether mental rotation skill training can improve UGRA task performance by novice operators.We enrolled 94 volunteers with no prior experience of UGRA in this randomised controlled study. After a baseline mental rotation test, their performance in a standardised UGRA needling task was independently assessed by two raters using the composite error score (CES) and global rating scale (GRS). Volunteers with low baseline mental rotation ability were randomised to a mental rotation training group or a no training group, and the UGRA needling task was repeated to determine the impact of the training intervention on task performance. The study primary outcome measure was UGRA needling task CES measured before and after the training intervention.Multivariate analyses controlling for age, gender, and previous performance showed that participants exposed to the training intervention made significantly fewer errors (CES B=-0.66 [standard error, se=0.17]; P0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.92 to -0.26) and displayed improved overall performance (GRS B=6.15 [se=2.99], P=0.048, 95% CI=0.06 to 12.13) when undertaking the UGRA needling task.A simple training intervention, based on the manipulation and rotation of three-dimensional models, results in improved technical performance of a UGRA needling task in operators with low baseline mental rotation skills.

Background With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to accelerate and blood collection agencies (BCAs) warning of shortages, it is critical to identify the current determinants of donor behavior for donors and nondonors. Study design and methods In May and June 2020, Australian residents who believed themselves eligible to donate blood responded to measures assessing constructs from an integrated protection motivation theory, organizational trust, and theory of planned behavior framework, with donor status also assessed. Results A total of 507 residents (47% male, mean age 28.69 years; 272 had donated/attempted to donate) participated. A revised structural equation model was a good fit to these data. In this model, perceived risk, severity, anxiety, and response cost associated with donating during the COVID-19 pandemic underpinned threat appraisals, while response efficacy, self-efficacy, and attitude toward donating during COVID-19 informed coping appraisals. Trust in the BCA predicted lower threat and higher coping appraisals, and higher coping appraisals predicted stronger subjective norms. Intention to donate during the COVID-19 pandemic was positively predicted by subjective norm and self-efficacy. Donation-related behavior was positively predicted by intention, with this relationship stronger for nondonors than donors. Conclusion Self-efficacy and approval from others, underpinned by coping appraisals and organizational trust, play a critical role in intentions to donate. BCAs that focus on maintaining trust with (potential) donors, providing clear messaging stating the minimal threat of contracting COVID-19 from donating and the protective measures in place, and showing how donating is achievable, may help to ensure a safe and secure blood supply throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Although the need for whole blood is declining, so too are the number of first-time and repeat blood donors. To develop new recruitment and retention strategies, therefore, we need to draw on as wide a variation in blood donor motivations as possible. The primary aim of this study is to draw on a large survey of donors to develop a broad, theoretically instantiated typology of donor motivations to identify new and less common, yet practically important, motivations that have not been previously reported. Study Design and Methods: Using data from the UK Blood Donor Survey run by NHS Blood and Transplant/Public Health England Epidemiology Unit (N = 61 123 donors), we analyze fixed (N = 52 225) and free (N = 8867) responses to develop a more comprehensive typology of blood donor motivations based on theories from the biology, psychology, philosophy, economics, and sociology of altruism. Results: We identified 54 motivations, including a number of newly identified motivations, for blood donations which we organized into 12 superordinate categories (eg, “inspiration via moral elevation,” “perceived social closeness,” and “fungibility of donations”). These are linked to intervention suggestions such as donating blood in memoriam or donating blood as an alternative to other charitable acts. Conclusion: We present the most comprehensive account of blood donor motivations to-date. This work also offers a structure for coding free-text responses, developing motivational measures, and identifying tangible interventions. Thus, we feel that this is a valuable resource for blood donor researchers, marketers, and policy makers.

Background A large number of end-of-life decisions are made by a next-of-kin for a patient who has lost their decision-making capacity. This has given rise to investigations into how surrogates make these decisions. The experimental perspective has focused on examining how the decisions we make for others differ from our own, whereas the qualitative perspective has explored surrogate insights into making these decisions. Methods We conducted a mixed methods study to bring these two perspectives together. This is crucial to comparing decision outcomes to the decision process. We asked older adult partners to make end-of-life decisions for each other. They then took part in a semi-structured interview about their decision process. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. Results 24 participants took part in the study. Surrogates were more likely to take a life-saving treatment at the risk of a diminished quality of life for their partner than for themselves. This was consistent with their transcripts which showed that they wanted to give their partner a better chance of living. Although there was evidence of surrogate inaccuracy in the decision task, participants overwhelmingly reported their intention to make a decision which aligns with the substituted judgment standard. However, uncertainty about their wishes pushed them to consider other factors. Conclusions Taking a mixed methods approach allowed us to make novel comparisons between decision outcome and process. We found that the intentions of surrogates broadly align with the expectations of the substituted judgment standard and that previous discussions with their partner helps them to make a decision.

Background In an ageing population, pain, frailty and disability frequently coexist across a wide range of musculoskeletal diagnoses, but their associations remain incompletely understood. The Investigating Musculoskeletal Health and Wellbeing (IMH&W) study aims to measure and characterise the development and progression of pain, frailty and disability, and to identify discrete subgroups and their associations. The survey will form a longitudinal context for nested research, permitting targeted recruitment of participants for qualitative, observational and interventional studies; helping to understand recruitment bias in clinical studies; and providing a source cohort for cohort randomised controlled trials. Methods IMH&W will comprise a prospective cohort of 10,000 adults recruited through primary and secondary care, and through non-clinical settings. Data collection will be at baseline, and then through annual follow-ups for 4 years. Questionnaires will address demographic characteristics, pain severity (0–10 Numerical Rating Scale), pain distribution (reported on a body Manikin), pain quality (McGill Pain Questionnaire), central aspects of pain (CAP-Knee), frailty and disability (based on Fried criteria and the FRAIL questionnaire), and fracture risk. Baseline characteristics, progression and associations of frailty, pain and disability will be determined. Discrete subgroups and trajectories will be sought by latent class analysis. Recruitment bias will be explored by comparing participants in nested studies with the eligible IMH&W population. Discussion IMH&W will elucidate associations and progression of pain, frailty and disability. It will enable identification of people at risk of poor musculoskeletal health and wellbeing outcomes who might be suitable for specific interventions, and facilitate generalisation and comparison of research outcomes between target populations. The study will benefit from a large sample size and will recruit from diverse regions across the UK. Purposive recruitment will enrich the cohort with people with MSK problems with high representation of elderly and unwell people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03696134. Date of Registration: 04 October 2018.

High levels of cooperation are a central feature of human society, and conditional cooperation has been proposed as one proximal mechanism to support this. The counterforce of free-riding can, however, undermine cooperation and as such a number of external mechanisms have been proposed to ameliorate the effects of free-riding. One such mechanism is setting cooperation as the default (i.e., an opt-out default). We posit, however, that in dynamic settings where people can observe and condition their actions on others’ behaviour, ‘lone wolf’ defectors undermine initial cooperation encouraged by an opt-out default, while ‘good shepherds’ defeat the free-riding encouraged by an opt-in default. Thus, we examine the dynamic emergence of conditional cooperation under different default settings. Specifically, we develop a game theoretical model to analyse cooperation under defaults for cooperation (opt-out) and defection (opt-in). The model predicts that the ‘lone wolf’ effect is stronger than the ‘good shepherd’ effect, which – if anticipated by players – should strategically deter free-riding under opt-out and cooperation under opt-in. Our experimental games confirm the existence of both ‘lone wolf’ defectors and ‘good shepherd’ cooperators, and that the ‘lone wolf’effect is stronger in the context of organ donation registration behaviour. We thus show a potential ‘dark side’ to conditional cooperation (‘lone wolf effect’) and draw implications for the adoption of an opt-out organ donation policy. Nanyang Technological University Published version Thanks to Callum Findlater and Pheobe Galbraith for helping with data collection for wave 1 and wave 2 of the experiment in the Supplementary files on perceptions of the defaults. Many thanks to Judd Kessler and Alvin Roth for the permission to use their z-Tree codes. We would like to acknowledge the advice and encouragement from Friedel Bolle, Yves Breitmoser, Jack Knetsch, Daniel Houser, Manfred Königstein, and participants to the seminar in Brigham Young University, the EBES Conference in Bali, and the Singapore Economic Review Conference in 2019. We are grateful to the Handling Editorial Board Member Valerio Capraro and three anonymous reviewers for the constructive comments and suggestions. The experiment was funded by a pump priming award from the School of Psychology, University of Nottingham to E.F. and J.T. and further funding via J.T. from Nottingham University Business School. The research received financial support from the Nanyang Technological University under J.T.’s Start-Up Grant. None of these institutions had any influence over the design, analysis, interpretation and writing of the paper.

Aim: Colorectal surgeons regularly make the decision to anastomose, defunction or form an end colostomy when performing rectal surgery. This study aimed to define personality traits of colorectal surgeons and explore any influence of such traits on the decision to perform a rectal anastomosis. Method: Fifty attendees of The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland 2016 Conference participated. After written consent, all underwent personality testing: alexithymia (inability to understand emotions), type of thinking process (intuitive versus rational) and personality traits (extraversion, agreeableness, openness, emotional stability, conscientiousness). Questions were answered regarding anastomotic decisions in various clinical scenarios and results analysed to reveal any influence of the surgeon's personality on anastomotic decision. Results: Participants were: male (86%), consultants (84%) and based in England (68%). Alexithymia was low (4%) with 81% displaying intuitive thinking (reflex, fast). Participants scored higher in emotional stability (ability to remain calm) and conscientiousness (organized, methodical) compared with population norms. Personality traits influenced the next anastomotic decision if: surgeons had recently received criticism at a departmental audit meeting; were operating with an anaesthetist that was not their regular one; or there had been no anastomotic leaks in their patients for over 1 year. Conclusion: Colorectal surgeons have speciality relevant personalities that potentially influence the important decision to anastomose and could explain the variation in surgical practice across the UK. Future work should explore these findings in other countries and any link of personality traits to patient-related outcomes.

Summary Background We investigated whether a volitional helpsheet (VHS), a brief psychological intervention, could reduce repeat self-harm in the 6 months following a suicide attempt. Methods We did a prospective, single-site, randomised controlled trial. Patients admitted to a hospital in Edinburgh, UK, after a suicide attempt were deemed eligible for the study if they were over the age of 16 years, had a self-reported history of self-harm, were fluent in English, were medically fit to interview, and were not participating in other research studies within the hospital. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1), via web-based randomisation, to receive either VHS plus usual treatment (intervention group) or only treatment as usual (control group). Randomisation was stratified by sex and self-reported past self-harm history. The Information Services Division of the National Health Service (NHS-ISD) staff and those extracting data from medical notes were masked to the study group the participant was allocated to. Clinical staff working within the hospital were also masked to participants' randomisation status. There were three primary outcomes: the proportion of paticipants who re-presented to hospital with self-harm during the 6-month follow-up period; the number of times a participant re-presented to hospital with self-harm during the 6-month follow-up period; and cost-effectiveness of the VHS as measured by estimated incremental cost per self-harm event averted. Primary outcomes were analysed in all randomised patients. Follow-up data collection was extracted from the Information Services Division of the NHS and from patient medical records. The trial is registered with International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry, number ISRCTN99488269. Findings Between May 9, 2012, and Feb 24, 2014, we assessed 1308 people for eligibility. Of these, 259 patients were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 259 to the control group. We obtained complete follow-up data on 512 (99%) of 518 patients (five participants were lost to follow-up in the intervention group and one in the control group). 11 patients assigned to the intervention group did not complete the VHS in hospital. Overall, the intervention did not affect the number of people who re-presented with self-harm (67 [26%] of 254 patients in the intervention group vs 71 [28%] of 258 patients in the control group, odds ratio [OR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·58–1·39, p=0·63). The intervention had no effect on the number of re-presentations per patient (mean 0·67 [SD 2·55] re-presentations for the intervention group vs 0·85 [2·79] for the control group, incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·65, 95% CI 0·74–3·67, p=0·21). Mean total costs per person for NHS hospital services in the VHS intervention group over the 6 months were £513 versus £561 in the control group but this difference was not significant (95% CI–£353 to £257, p=0·76). Three patients died by suicide in the 6 months following their index suicide attempt (one in the intervention group and two in the control group). There were no reported unintended effects or adverse events in either group. Interpretation For the primary outcomes, there were no significant differences between groups. Although the VHS had no overall effect, post-hoc analyses suggest VHS might be effective in reducing the number of self-harm repetitions following a suicide attempt in people who complete the helpsheet and who have been previously admitted to hospital with self-harm. This is the first study to investigate the usefulness of the VHS to reduce self-harm among those who have attempted suicide. These subgroup findings require replication. The potential use of the VHS in those who self-harm for different motives requires further exploration. Funding Chief Scientist Office (CZH/4/704).

This paper has two objectives: (1) presenting recent advances in personality theory whereby personality traits are conceptualized within a framework that focuses on the dynamic interactions of behaviour, biology, context, and states, and (2) discussing the implications of these developments for measurement and medical selection. We start by presenting evidence that traits are no longer regarded as stable deterministic predictors of behaviour. Instead, traits are found to change across generations, the life span, and in response to environmental contingencies. Thus, there is an urgent need to explore how traits change as function of medical education. Second, drawing on recent theory and research (behavioural reaction norms and the density distribution model) we highlight evidence to show how the expression of trait relevant behaviour is dependent on context, and is distributed with an average (typical behaviour or personality) and a variance (plasticity or adaptability), with traditional personality measure associated with typical responding. Third, we demystify that some traits are better than others showing that so-called "good" traits have a dark-side. Fourth, we show how these developments impact on how personality might be assessed, thereby presenting recent evidence on the use of contextualized personality measures, situational judgment tests, other reports, and implicit measures. Throughout the paper, we outline the key implications of these developments for medical selection practices.

Background:\ud Suicide and suicidal behaviour are global health concerns with complex aetiologies. Given the recent research and policy focus on loneliness, this systematic review aimed to determine the extent to which loneliness predicts suicidal ideation and/or behaviour (SIB) over time.\ud \ud Methods:\ud A keyword search of five major databases (CINHAL, Medline, PsychArticles, PsychInfo and Web of Knowledge) was conducted. Papers for inclusion were limited to those using a prospective longitudinal design, written in English and which measured loneliness at baseline and SIB at a later time-point.\ud \ud Results:\ud After duplicates were removed, 947 original potential papers were identified, with 22 studies meeting the review criteria. Meta-analysis revealed loneliness was a significant predictor of both suicidal ideation and behaviour and there was evidence that depression acted as a mediator. Furthermore, studies which consisted of predominantly female participants were more likely to report a significant relationship, as were studies where participants were aged 16-20 or >55 years at baseline.\ud \ud Limitations:\ud There was considerable variability in measures, samples and methodologies used across the studies. Middle-aged adults were under-represented, as were individuals from minority ethnic backgrounds. All studies were conducted in countries where self-reliance and independence (i.e. individualism) are the cultural norm.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud Loneliness predicts later SIB in select populations. However, due to the heterogeneity of the studies further research is needed to draw more robust conclusions. Suicide death also needs to be included as an outcome measure. A focus on more collectivist countries is also required.

BackgroundPain and depression are common in the population and co-morbid with each other. Both are predictive of one another and are also associated with cognitive function; people who are in greater pain and more depressed respectively perform less well on tests of cognitive function. It has been argued that pain might cause deterioration in cognitive function, whereas better cognitive function earlier in life might be a protective factor against the emergence of disease. When looking at the dynamic relationship between these in chronic diseases, studying samples that already have advanced disease progression often confounds this relationship.MethodsUsing data from waves 1 to 3 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (n = 516), we examined the interplay between pain, cognitive function and depression in a subsample of respondents reporting a diagnosis of arthritis at wave 2 of the ELSA using cross-lagged panel models.ResultsThe models showed that pain, cognitive function and depression at wave 1, prior to diagnosis, predict pain at wave 2, and that pain at wave 1 predicts depression at wave 2. Pain and depression at wave 2 predict cognitive function at wave 3.ConclusionsThe results indicate that better cognitive function might be protective against the emergence of pain prior to an arthritis diagnosis, but cognitive function is subsequently impaired by pain and depression. Furthermore, higher depression predicts lower cognitive function, but not vice versa. This is discussed in the context of the emerging importance of inflammation in depression.

Objective: Without a supply of blood, health services could not meet their clinical needs. Similarly, organs for transplantation save and transform lives. Donations are acts of generosity that are traditionally seen as altruistic, and accordingly, interventions to recruit and retain blood and organ donors have focused on altruism. We review the predictors, prevalence and correlates of these two behaviours, how effective interventions have been, and draw common themes. Design: Narrative review. Results: We highlight that both recipients and donors benefit, and as such neither blood nor organ donation is purely altruistic. We also highlight health problems associated with both types of donation. In evaluating interventions, we highlight that a move to an opt-out policy for organ donation may not be the simple fix it is believed to be, and propose interventions to enhance the effectiveness of an opt-in policy (e.g. social media updates). We show that incentives, text messaging, feedback and a focus on prosocial emotions (e.g. ‘warm-glow’, ‘gratitude’) may be effective interventions for both blood and organ donation. Interventions designed to reduce fainting (e.g. water pre-loading) are also effective for blood donation. Conclusions: We conclude that affect is key to understanding both types of donation and in designing effective interventions.

BackgroundAre we more risk-averse or risk-seeking when we make decisions on behalf of other people as opposed to ourselves? So far, findings have not been able to provide a clear and consistent answer.MethodWe propose a meta-analysis to assess whether self-other differences vary according to particular features of the decision. We reviewed 78 effect sizes from 49 studies (7,576 participants).ResultsThere was no overall self-other difference, but there were moderating effects of domain and frame. Decisions in the interpersonal domain were more risk-averse for self than for other. Decisions in the medical domain were more risk-seeking for self than for other. There were no overall self-other differences in the financial domain, however there was a moderating effect of frame: decisions in a gain frame were more risk-averse for self than other whereas decisions in a loss frame were more risk-seeking for self than other. This effect of frame was slightly different overall and in the medical domain, where self-other differences occurred in a loss frame but not in a gain frame.ConclusionFuture work should continue to investigate how the specific content and context of the decision impacts self-other differences in order to understand the effects of domain and frame we report.

Purpose To examine the interplay between pain and disability in arthritis when adjusting for patient heterogeneity in pain progression. There is consistent evidence to suggest that people experience osteoarthritis heterogeneously, with subgroups of people having different trajectories of pain. However, at present it is unclear how these pain trajectories are related to functional disability. We ask the question: Do levels of disability track changes in pain across different pain trajectories? Methods Secondary analysis of a subset (n = 889) from a cohort of older English adults, representative of the general population (the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing). The relationship between pain and functional disability was compared in three domains of disability: mobility, activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL. These represent increasingly complex forms of self-care required for independent living. Data analysis compared the heterogeneous analysis of pain (different trajectories) and disability compared to treating pain as a simpler homogenous construct. Results On a population level, pain was significantly positively correlated with increased disability in all three domains, and the relationship remained stable over time. However, when heterogeneity was examined respondents whose pain improved did not show a corresponding improvement in disability in two domains (ADL and mobility). Conclusions These findings highlight how, for some people, alleviating pain, the main symptom of arthritis, might not prevent the persistence or progression of disability. Even when pain improves, further interventions that improve disability are likely to be required. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Pain and functional limitation in daily living are common symptoms of arthritis. Arthritis pain is heterogeneous - there are trajectories of people whose pain gets better or worse. However, to date no study has looked at the relationship between trajectories of arthritis pain and functional disability outside of the minority of people with rheumatoid arthritis. What does this study add? Treating pain as heterogeneous explained disability better than treating pain as a single entity. Respondents in a trajectory of worsening pain reported functional disability in two domains (mobility and activities of daily living) also got worse over time. People in a trajectory of decreasing pain over time did not experience a reduction in disability, despite pain being the most common reason for why people limit their daily functioning. This suggests further intervention is required for people with arthritis, even when the most visible symptoms have been alleviated.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether baseline scores for a self-report trait linked to central mechanisms predict 1 year pain outcomes in the Knee Pain in the Community cohort.METHOD: 1471 participants reported knee pain at baseline and responded to a 1-year follow-up questionnaire, of whom 204 underwent pressure pain detection thresholds (PPTs) and radiographic assessment at baseline. Logistic and linear regression models estimated the relative risks (RRs) and associations (β) between self-report traits, PPTs and pain outcomes. Discriminative performance for each predictor was compared using receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curves.RESULTS: Baseline Central Mechanisms trait scores predicted pain persistence (Relative Risk, RR = 2.10, P = 0.001) and persistent pain severity (β = 0.47, P < 0.001), even after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, radiographic scores and symptom duration. Baseline joint-line PPTs also associated with pain persistence (RR range = 0.65 to 0.68, P < 0.02), but only in univariate models. Lower baseline medial joint-line PPT was associated with persistent pain severity (β = -0.29, P = 0.013) in a fully adjusted model. The Central Mechanisms trait model showed good discrimination of pain persistence cases from resolved pain cases (Area Under the Curve, AUC = 0.70). The discrimination power of other predictors (PPTs (AUC range = 0.51 to 0.59), radiographic OA (AUC = 0.62), age, sex and BMI (AUC range = 0.51 to 0.64), improved significantly (P < 0.05) when the central mechanisms trait was included in each logistic regression model (AUC range = 0.69 to 0.74).CONCLUSION: A simple summary self-report Central Mechanisms trait score may indicate a contribution of central mechanisms to poor knee pain prognosis.

Suicidal behaviour poses a significant public health concern. Research into the factors that distinguish between the emergence of suicide ideation and the enactment of a suicide attempt is crucial. This study tests central tenets of the Integrated Motivational-Volitional Model of suicidal behaviour (IMV, O’Connor and Kirtley, 2018) which posits that volitional phase factors govern the transition from thinking to attempting suicide. 299 adults completed a face-to-face interview and were allocated to groups based on their suicidal history: Suicide attempt group (N = 100), suicide ideation group (N = 105), and a control group (N = 94). Measures were taken at baseline, at 1-month and 6-months follow-up. As predicted, the attempt group differed from the ideation group on all volitional phase factors. Those who had attempted suicide reported higher capability for suicide, were more likely to have a family member or friend who had self-injured or attempted suicide, and were more impulsive. In keeping with the IMV model, the ideation and attempt groups had similar scores on the motivational factors. Defeat and entrapment were significant predictors of ideation at baseline, and mediation analyses indicated that defeat had an indirect effect on ideation through entrapment at baseline and at 1-month follow-up. The results support the IMV model and suggest that entrapment should be routinely included in suicide risk assessments. Further research to test predictors of the transition from suicide ideation to suicide attempts is crucial to inform future intervention development and health care delivery.

Objectives The cortisol awakening response (CAR) and cortisol reactivity to an acute laboratory stressor both involve steep increases in cortisol secretion and are associated with preparing the body to deal with stressors ahead. Alterations in both have been linked to negative clinical and health outcomes. However, these two aspects of our biological stress response have rarely been directly compared, and the extant research focuses on state, rather than trait CAR. Given the similar roles of the CAR and cortisol reactivity, and their relationships to psychopathology, it is important to understand whether trait CAR and cortisol reactivity to acute stressors are related and whether a blunted CAR may be predictive of blunted cortisol reactivity across an acute laboratory stress task. Design Cross-sectional. Participants completed the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) the week after daily assessment of the CAR. Methods Salivary cortisol secretion across the TSST was compared to the CAR, sampled across five weekdays at waking (S1) and 30 min past waking, for 54 female participants. Results A smaller CAR, lower peak cortisol, and blunted CAR increase were all significantly related to a steep rise and flattened slope of recovery in cortisol secretion following the TSST. Additionally, lower S1 was predictive of a blunted rise in cortisol secretion from baseline to immediately post-task. Conclusion There was a significant relationship between trait CAR and cortisol secretion across the TSST. The results provided mixed support for hypotheses. A blunted CAR was associated with impaired recovery in cortisol secretion following the TSST, but, surprisingly, a rapid rise in cortisol peaking immediately following the stress task. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? The CAR and cortisol reactivity to an acute laboratory stress task both are thought to marshal the body's resources to deal with stress. Both the CAR and cortisol reactivity have been related to psychosocial states and clinical and health outcomes in past research. State CAR has been linked to cortisol reactivity to stressors, and a greater CAR is thought to help an individual deal with stressors in the day ahead. What does this study add? The current study predicts trait CAR sampled across multiple days from the rise and recovery in cortisol secretion across an acute stress test. Comparison of trait CAR and cortisol reactivity may clarify both their relationship to each other and to clinical and health outcomes.

Public health campaigns to reduce expectations for antibiotic treatment for respiratory tract infections have shown little or no effect on antibiotic prescribing and consumption. We examined whether such messages can increase respiratory tract infection symptom reporting. Participants ( N = 318) received one of four campaign messages, a combination of all four messages, or no message. Respiratory tract infection symptoms increased for those who received information that emphasized the ineffectiveness of antibiotic treatment for respiratory tract infections. As symptom severity is associated with greater contact with primary healthcare and receiving antibiotic prescriptions, campaigns to encourage antimicrobial stewardship should consider the side effects of antibiotic ineffectiveness messages.

Evidence suggests that suicidal behaviour arises from one's attempt to escape from unbearable situations or unbearable thoughts and feelings. These feelings of entrapment are usually assessed via the 16-item Entrapment Scale, but this is too long for routine use in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop a brief version of the full scale that reliably assesses entrapment. We used data collected from a clinical sample (n = 497) of patients following hospital-treated self-harm and a population-based sample (n = 3457) of young adults. Four items were selected that had both the highest factor loading and discriminatory parameters and that covered the theoretical constructs of internal and external entrapment. Correlations between the 4-item short-form and the 16-item full scale were nearly perfect (0.94 for the clinical sample, 0.97 for the population-based sample). When comparing the correlations between the short-form and the full scale with other clinical and psychological scales, the correlations were nearly identical. The 4-item Entrapment Scale Short-Form (E-SF) will provide very comparable information about entrapment for each respondent as the full scale will do. However, its brevity will increase the likelihood that the assessment of entrapment will be implemented into everyday clinical practice.

Background: \ud Although many suicide risk factors have been identified, there is still relatively little known about the factors that differentiate those who think about suicide from those who make a suicide attempt.\ud \ud Aims: \ud Using the integrated motivational-volitional model (IMV) of suicidal behaviour as a framework, this study hypothesised that (i) motivational and volitional phase factors would differentiate non-suicidal controls from those who had a history of suicidal ideation or suicide attempts, and (ii) within a multivariable model only volitional phase factors would differentiate between those who had a history of suicidal ideation and those who had attempted suicide.\ud \ud Method: \ud The Scottish Wellbeing Study (n = 3508) is a nationally representative study of young people (18–34 years) recruited throughout Scotland. Using multinomial regression analysis, three groups (non-suicidal control (n = 2534), lifetime suicide ideation (n = 498) and lifetime suicide attempt (n = 403) groups) were compared on motivational and volitional phase variables.\ud \ud Results: \ud Consistent with the IMV model, motivational and volitional phase variables differentiated the control group from both the ideation and attempt groups. Only volitional phase variables differentiated between the suicide attempt group and the suicidal ideation group in the multivariable model; with those reporting a suicide attempt being higher on acquired capability, mental imagery about death, impulsivity, and being more likely to know a friend who had made a suicide attempt. Having a family member or friend die by suicide or a family member attempt suicide did not differentiate between the groups.\ud \ud Limitations: \ud The findings were based on cross-sectional data derived from self-report measures.\ud \ud Conclusions: \ud These findings provide further support for the IMV model, and highlight potential targets for clinical intervention.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an example of human chronic inflammatory pain. Modern treatments suppress inflammation, yet pain remains a major problem for many people with RA. We hypothesized that discrete RA subgroups might display favorable or unfavorable pain trajectories when receiving treatment, and that baseline characteristics will predict trajectory allocation. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify discrete trajectories of Short Form-36 bodily pain scores during 3 years in 3 RA cohorts (Early RA Network (n = 683), British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register Biologics (n = 7,090) and nonbiologics (n = 1,720) cohorts. Logistic regression compared baseline predictor variables between trajectories. The role of inflammation was examined in a subgroup analysis of people with normal levels of inflammatory markers after 3 years. The mean Short Form-36 bodily pain scores in each cohort improved but remained throughout 3 years of follow-up of >1 standard deviation worse than the UK general population average. Discrete persistent pain (59–79% of cohort participants) and resolving pain (19–27%) trajectories were identified in each cohort. In Early RA Network, a third trajectory displaying persistently low pain (23%) was also identified. In people with normal levels of inflammatory markers after 3 years, 65% were found to follow a persistent pain trajectory. When trajectories were compared, greater disability (adjusted odds ratio = 2.3–2.5 per unit baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire score) and smoking history (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6–1.8) were risk factors for persistent pain trajectories in each cohort. In conclusion, distinct trajectories indicate patient subgroups with very different pain prognosis during treatment for RA. Inflammation does not fully explain the pain trajectories, and noninflammatory factors as well as acute phase response predict which trajectory an individual will follow. Targeted treatments additional to those which suppress inflammation might reduce the long-term burden of arthritis pain. Perspective Immunosuppression decreases inflammation in RA, but pain outcomes are less favorable. Discrete persistent and resolving pain trajectories were identified after treatment, both in early and established RA. Smoking and greater disability at baseline predicted persistent pain. Identifying patient subgroups with a poor pain prognosis could enable adjunctive treatment to improve outcomes.

Background: Central banks set economy-wide interest rates to meet exclusively economic objectives. There is a strong link between indebtedness and psychiatric morbidity at the individual level, with interest rates being an important factor determining ability to repay debt. However, no prior research has explored whether central bank interest rate changes directly influence mental health, nor whether this varies by levels of indebtedness. Methods: We use British data (N = 93,255) to explore whether the Bank of England base-rate affected how perceived burden of non-mortgage debt (low, medium, and high) influenced psychiatric morbidity. Psychiatric morbidity was measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Our primary outcome measure was a binary indicator of “psychiatric caseness ” (> 3 on a 0–12 scale). We also used the GHQ-12 as a continuous measure of distress. Results: When interest rates are high (low) there is an increased (decreased) risk of psychiatric morbidity only among those with a high debt burden (b = 0.026, p= 0.02). This result was robust to alternative explanations.Thus a 1 percentage point base-rate increase is associated with a 2.6% increase that someone with a high debt burden will experience psychiatric morbidity.Limitations: Our study uses subjective indicators of debt burden. We were unable to determine the mechanism behind our effect. Conclusions: Changes in central bank interest rates to meet economic objectives pose a threat to mental health.Mental health support is needed for those in debt and central banks may need to consider how their decisions influence population mental health

Approximately 10% of Dutch donors lapse yearly. Common reasons are nonvoluntary medical issues (e.g., low hemoglobin), reaching the upper age limit, and voluntary (e.g., own request, nonresponse). Little is known about predictors of voluntary noncompliance (lapses). Psychosocial characteristics have been linked to various health behaviors, including voluntary noncompliance. Hence, we investigated whether psychosocial characteristics, measured before the first donation, similarly predict subsequent voluntary nonmedical lapse.New donors (n = 4861) randomly received a blood donation survey between July 2008 and March 2009, before their first appointment at the blood bank. Voluntary lapses included personal reasons, nonresponse to invitations, donor who could not be reached, and no show. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models of lapse on psychosocial characteristics and confounders (e.g., demographics) were estimated.Of 2964 donors who took the questionnaire, more than one-third (36.5%) had voluntarily lapsed due to nonmedical reasons by 2016. Univariate regression showed that lapse negatively associated with norms, attitudes, and intentions toward blood donation; self-efficacy; and more donation experience. Lapse positively associated with anxiety. Multivariate Cox models showed that lapse was primarily driven by anxiety and need for information.Certain psychosocial characteristics increase risks of voluntary lapse. Especially donors with higher donation anxiety had increased lapsing risks. They might benefit from extra attention during donation. Donors with more information need or wish about procedure and patients were less likely to lapse, indicating that binding with the blood bank might prevent lapse. Generally, this study showed that donor lapse and donor return are determined by different psychosocial factors not just the reverse of each other.

Negative schemas have been widely recognized as being linked to psychopathology and mental health, and they are central to the Schema Therapy (ST) model. This study is the first to report on the psychometric properties of the Young Positive Schema Questionnaire (YPSQ). In a combined community sample (Manila, Philippines, n = 559; Bangalore, India, n = 350; Singapore, n = 628), we identified a 56-item, 14-factor solution for the YPSQ. Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis supported the 14-factor model using data from two other independent samples: an Eastern sample from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (n = 229) and a Western sample from the United States (n = 214). Construct validity was demonstrated with the Young Schema Questionnaire 3 Short Form (YSQ-S3) that measures negative schemas, and divergent validity was demonstrated for 11 of the YPSQ subscales with their respective negative schema counterparts. Convergent validity of the 14 subscales of YPSQ was demonstrated with measures of personality dispositions, emotional distress, well-being, trait gratitude, and humor styles. Positive schemas also showed incremental validity over and above negative schemas for these same measures, thus demonstrating that both positive and negative schemas are separate constructs that relate in unique ways to mental health. Implications for using both the YPSQ and the YSQ-S3 scales in tandem in ST as well as cultural nuances from the use of Asian samples were discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record)

Background While the heterogeniety of pain progression has been studied in chronic diseases, the extent to which patterns of pain progression among people in general as well as across different diseases affect social, civic and political engagement is unclear. We explore these issues for the first time. Methods Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, latent class growth models were used to estimate trajectories of self-reported pain in the entire cohort, and within subsamples reporting diagnoses of arthritis and cancer. These were compared at baseline on physical health (e.g. body mass index, smoking) and over time on social, civic and political engagement. Results Very similar four-trajectory models fit the whole sample and arthritis subsamples, whereas a three-trajectory model fit the cancer subsample. All samples had a modal group experiencing minimal chronic pain and a group with high chronic pain that showed slight regression (more pronounced in cancer). Biometric indices were more predictive of the most painful trajectory in arthritis than cancer. In both samples the group experiencing the most pain at baseline reported impairments in social, civic and political engagement. Conclusions The impact of pain differs between individuals and between diseases. Indicators of physical and psychological health differently predicted membership of the trajectories most affected by pain. These trajectories were associated with differences in engagement with social and civic life, which in turn were associated with poorer health and well-being. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1031-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background and Objectives: The design of effective donor recruitment campaigns requires an accurate understanding of donor motivations. This requires cross-validation of theoretically derived, psychometrically assessed motivations with behavioural preferences. Theoretical models suggest that blood donors should be more sensitive than non-donors to violations of fairness norms. Specifically, active blood donors, compared to non-donors, should endorse beliefs of reciprocal fairness, norms of both positive and negative reciprocity and reject more unfair offers in a behavioural economic game (the ultimatum game). The current study is the first to test this hypothesis. Materials and Methods: Two studies are reported. One experimental psychometric study (N = 400), and one behavioural economic game using the ultimatum game (N = 60) Results: Consistent with the predictions, active and lapsed donors, compared to non-donors, were more likely to endorse beliefs of reciprocal fairness and active donors to endorse norms of both positive and negative reciprocity and reject more unfair offers in the ultimatum game. This pattern of motivations was unique to blood donors and not observed for other health (i.e., being on the organ donor register) and non-health (e.g., volunteering) pro-sociality. Conclusion: Blood donors heightened sensitivity to unfairness violations. This indicates a very clear and specific line for the development of interventions that align fairness, self-interest and reciprocity, for example Voluntary Reciprocal Altruism (VRA). We also highlight the importance of establishing intervention development within a clinical trials model and emphasise why experimental work of this type is vital.