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Summary Background HIV enhances human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced carcinogenesis. However, the contribution of HIV to cervical cancer burden at a population level has not been quantified. We aimed to investigate cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV and to estimate the global cervical cancer burden associated with HIV. Methods We did a systematic literature search and meta-analysis of five databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health [ CABI.org ], Web of Science, and Global Index Medicus) to identify studies analysing the association between HIV infection and cervical cancer. We estimated the pooled risk of cervical cancer among women living with HIV across four continents (Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America). The risk ratio (RR) was combined with country-specific UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence and GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cervical cancer to calculate the proportion of women living with HIV among women with cervical cancer and population attributable fractions and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV-attributable cervical cancer. Findings 24 studies met our inclusion criteria, which included 236 127 women living with HIV. The pooled risk of cervical cancer was increased in women living with HIV (RR 6·07, 95% CI 4·40–8·37). Globally, 5·8% (95% CI 4·6–7·3) of new cervical cancer cases in 2018 (33 000 new cases, 95% CI 26 000–42 000) were diagnosed in women living with HIV and 4·9% (95% CI 3·6–6·4) were attributable to HIV infection (28 000 new cases, 20 000–36 000). The most affected regions were southern Africa and eastern Africa. In southern Africa, 63·8% (95% CI 58·9–68·1) of women with cervical cancer (9200 new cases, 95% CI 8500–9800) were living with HIV, as were 27·4% (23·7–31·7) of women in eastern Africa (14 000 new cases, 12 000–17 000). ASIRs of HIV-attributable cervical cancer were more than 20 per 100 000 in six countries, all in southern Africa and eastern Africa. Interpretation Women living with HIV have a significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV are especially important for countries in southern Africa and eastern Africa, where a substantial HIV-attributable cervical cancer burden has added to the existing cervical cancer burden. Funding WHO, US Agency for International Development, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Background Taenia solium cysticercosis/taeniasis (TSCT) is reported to be endemic in pig producing areas around the world, causing significant disease burden and economic losses. Methods This cross-sectional study aimed at assessing Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) regarding TSCT in four districts, namely Mbulu, Mpwapwa, Mbinga, and Rungwe in Tanzania. Data on KAP were collected through questionnaire-based interviews and household infrastructure observations. Results Knowledge about porcine cysticercosis was good, particularly among pig keepers across the districts. Many participants had heard about the pork tapeworm (T. solium taeniasis), and the knowledge about signs/symptoms and treatment was fair, but the means of transmission and prevention measures were often unknown. Whilst most participants were familiar with epilepsy, no one knew anything about human cysticercosis and the link between cysticercosis and epileptic seizures. A similar trend is reflected through the attitudes toward the low risk perception of cysticercosis infection. Not surprisingly, the risk perception of the infection with the pork tapeworm was low too. Many participants reported not washing their hands before eating or after using the toilet which highlights potential risks for the development of human cysticercosis. Albeit nearly every participant reported using the toilet always, household observations revealed that toilets were either lacking or had no complete walls. Generally, household observations revealed a discrepancy between questionnaire answers on the one hand and the availability of toilet and handwashing facilities and the confinement of pigs on the other hand. Conclusion This study demonstrates knowledge gaps and adverse practices which may hinder and/or slow down the control/elimination of T. solium in endemic countries. The study results are also useful for appropriate designing of TSCT health interventions that need to be planned carefully, taking into account the local context and designing TSCT in partnership with the local communities from the beginning to the end applying a One Health approach to allow the possible sustained and best impacts. Graphical Abstract

Background Community health education is one of the most effective measures to increase health literacy worldwide and can contribute to the achievement of specific targets of the Sustainable Development Goal 3. Digitalized health education materials can improve health knowledge as a dimension of health literacy and play an important role in disease prevention in rural sub-Saharan settings. Objective The objective of this research is to assess the effect of a digital health education intervention on the uptake and retention of knowledge related to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and Taenia solium (neuro)cysticercosis and taeniosis in rural communities in Iringa, Tanzania. Methods We conducted a nonrandomized intervention study of participants aged 15 to 45 years, randomly selected from 4 villages in Iringa, Tanzania. The intervention consisted of 2 parts. After the baseline assessment, we showed the participants 3 animated health videos on a tablet computer. After a period of 6 months, free access to community information spots (InfoSpots) with an integrated digital health education platform was provided to the intervention villages. Participants in the control group did not receive the intervention. The primary outcome was the difference in disease knowledge between the intervention and control groups, 12 months after baseline. Data were collected using an open-ended questionnaire, with correct or incorrect answers before and after intervention. Results Between April and May 2019, a total of 600 participants were recruited into the intervention (n=298, 49.7%) or control (n=302, 50.3%) groups. At baseline, no statistically significant differences in knowledge of the target diseases were observed. At 12 months after intervention, knowledge about HIV/AIDS, TB, and T. solium (neuro)cysticercosis and taeniosis was 10.2% (95% CI 5.0%-15.4%), 12% (95% CI 7.7%-16.2%), and 31.5% (95% CI 26.8%-36.2%) higher in the intervention group than in the control group, respectively. In all 4 domains (transmission, symptoms, treatment, and prevention), an increase in knowledge was observed in all the 3 diseases, albeit to varying degrees. The results were adjusted for potential confounders, and the significance of the primary results was maintained in the sensitivity analysis to assess dropouts. The participants who reported using the InfoSpots in the 12-month assessment further increased their knowledge about the target diseases by 6.8% (HIV/AIDS), 7.5% (TB), and 13.9% higher mean proportion of correct answers compared with the participants who did not use the InfoSpots. Conclusions Digital health education based on animated health videos and the use of free InfoSpots has significant potential to improve health knowledge, especially in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03808597; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03808597 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) RR2-10.2196/25128

Background Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders worldwide. Yet, its treatment gap is large in some areas and especially in sub-Saharan Africa data on clinical, radiological and semiological characteristics, as well as on treatment of persons with epilepsy (PWE) are still scarce. Methods We pooled data from four cross-sectional studies on epilepsy in eastern Africa. Two studies from Malawi and Uganda were community-based; two studies in Tanzania (urban Dar es Salaam and rural Haydom) were hospital-based. Clinical characteristics of PWE were assessed by the same questionnaire. Additionally, data on treatment were collected and computed tomography (CT) scans were performed. Results Overall, 1179 PWE were included in our analysis (581 (49.3%) female, median age 22 years (IQR 15–32 years)). Up to 25% of the patients had focal onset seizures. Those showed a higher rate of remarkable CT scan findings, with especially post-ischaemic and neurocysticercosis-associated lesions, compared to PWE with generalized onset seizures (35.1% vs. 20%). The majority of the patients experienced tonic–clonic seizures (70–85%). Only 67–78% of PWE received anti-seizure medication (ASM) treatment in the community-based studies, mostly monotherapy with phenobarbital, phenytoin or carbamazepine. Yet, underdosage was frequent and a large proportion of PWE received alternative non-ASM treatment consisting of herbal treatment (up to 83%) and/or scarification (up to 20%). Conclusions Epilepsy is common in sub-Saharan Africa, often caused by neurocysticercosis or ischaemic strokes. PWE suffer from high seizure rates and subsequent injuries, as well as from socio-economic consequences due to insufficient ASM treatment. This pooled analysis illustrates the need for structural programmes for adequate identification, education, assessment and treatment of PWE in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background Taenia solium (neuro-)cysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease, can be associated with epileptic seizures and other neuropsychiatric (= neurological and psychiatric) disorders. This study aimed to evaluate the association of T. solium cysticercosis with selected neuropsychiatric disorders and/or symptoms (chronic headache, epileptic seizures/epilepsy and psychosis) in Mocuba district, Mozambique. Methodology Between March and May 2018, a cross-sectional study was conducted among 1,086 participants aged 2 years or above in Mocuba district, Zambézia province, central Mozambique, to assess the seroprevalence of human cysticercosis and risk factors for infection, as well as to explore its relation to selected neuropsychiatric disorders. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected from each participant using a modified questionnaire designed by the Cysticercosis Working Group for Eastern and Southern Africa. Additionally, neuropsychiatric disorders, such as chronic headache, epileptic seizures/epilepsy and psychosis were assessed using four vignettes. T. solium antigen and cysticercosis IgG in serum were detected using both T. solium antigen B158/B60 enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and LDBIO Cysticercosis Western Blot, respectively. Principal findings Overall, 112/1,086 participants (10.3%) were sero-positive for T. solium antigen or antibodies. Prevalence of antibodies (6.6%; n = 72) was higher than of antigens (4.9%; n = 54). In the questionnaires, 530 (49.5%) of participants reported chronic headache, 293 (27%) had generalized epileptic seizures, 188 (18%) focal seizures and 183 (18.3%) psychosis. We found a statistically significant association between seropositivity for T. solium and chronic headache (p = 0.013). Additionally, increasing age (p = 0.03) was associated with Ag-ELISA seropositivity. Conclusions Our study revealed that in Mocuba, T. solium cysticercosis is prevalent and associated with self-reported chronic headache. Additionally, in the study setting, the seroprevalence of cysticercosis increased with age. However, it is not associated with other neuropsychiatric disorders such epileptic seizures/epilepsy and psychosis. Future studies are needed to confirm the high burden of neuropsychiatric disorders and their possible etiology, including neurocysticercosis, using additional serological, molecular biological and radiological diagnostic tools, as well as in-depth clinical examinations.

Background Epilepsy and neurocysticercosis (NCC) prevalence estimates in sub-Saharan Africa are still scarce but show important variation due to the population studied and different screening and diagnosis strategies used. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of epileptic seizures and epilepsy in the sampled population, and the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy (PWE) in a large cross-sectional study in a rural district of southern Malawi. Methods We conducted a community-based door-to-door screening study for epileptic seizures in Balaka, Malawi between October and December 2012. Past epileptic seizures were reported through a 15-item questionnaire answered by at least one person per household generating five major criteria. People who screened positive were further examined by a neurologist to establish diagnosis. Patients diagnosed with epilepsy were examined and offered Taenia solium cyst antigen and antibody serological tests, and a CT scan for the diagnosis of NCC. Results In total, screening information on 69,595 individuals was obtained for lifetime occurrence of epileptic seizures. 3,100 (4.5%) participants screened positive, of whom 1,913 (62%) could be followed-up and underwent further assessment. Lifetime prevalence was 3.0% (95% Bayesian credible interval [CI] 2.8 to 3.1%) and 1.2% (95%BCI 0.9 to 1.6%) for epileptic seizures and epilepsy, respectively. NCC prevalence among PWE was estimated to be 4.4% (95%BCI 0.8 to 8.5%). A diagnosis of epilepsy was ultimately reached for 455 participants. Conclusion The results of this large community-based study contribute to the evaluation and understanding of the burden of epilepsy in the population and of NCC among PWE in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a WHO-recommended HIV prevention method for people at high risk for acquiring HIV, is being increasingly implemented in many countries. Setting programmatic targets, particularly in generalised epidemics, could incorporate estimates of the size of the population likely to be eligible for PrEP using incidence-based thresholds. We estimated the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for PrEP and the number of HIV infections that could be averted in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia using prioritisation based on age, sex, geography, and markers of risk. Methods and findings We analysed the latest nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia to determine the proportion of adults who report behavioural markers of risk for HIV infection. We used prevalence ratios (PRs) to quantify the association of these factors with HIV status. Using a multiplier method, we combined these proportions with the number of new HIV infections by district, derived from district-level modelled HIV estimates. Based on these numbers, different scenarios were analysed for the minimum number of person-years on PrEP needed to prevent 1 HIV infection (NNP). An estimated total of 38,000, 108,000, and 46,000 new infections occurred in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia in 2016, corresponding with incidence rates of 0.43, 0.63, and 0.57 per 100 person-years. In these countries, 9%–20% of new infections occurred among people with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months and 40%–42% among people with either an STI or a non-regular sexual partner (NP) in the past 12 months (STINP). The models estimate that around 50% of new infections occurred in districts with incidence rates ≥1.0% in Mozambique and Zambia and ≥0.5% in Malawi. In Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, 35.1%, 21.9%, and 12.5% of the population live in these high-incidence districts. In the most parsimonious scenario, if women aged 15–34 years and men 20–34 years with an STI in the past 12 months living in high-incidence districts were to take PrEP, it would take a minimum of 65.8 person-years on PrEP to avert 1 HIV infection per year in Malawi, 35.2 in Mozambique, and 16.4 in Zambia. Our findings suggest that 3,300, 5,200, and 1,700 new infections could be averted per year in the 3 countries, respectively. Limitations of our study are that these values are based on modelled estimates of HIV incidence and self-reported behavioural risk factors from national surveys. Conclusions A large proportion of new HIV infections in these 3 African countries were estimated to occur among people who had either an STI or an NP in the past year, providing a straightforward means to set PrEP targets. Greater prioritisation of PrEP by district, sex, age, and behavioural risk factors resulted in lower NNPs thereby increasing PrEP cost-effectiveness, but also diminished the overall impact on reducing new infections, Dominik Stelzle and co-workers estimate impact of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis use on HIV infections in 3 African countries., Author summary Why was this study done? WHO recommends oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for people at substantial risk of HIV to prevent HIV acquisition, currently defined as 3% or higher per annum. Prioritising those at “substantial risk” increases the cost-effectiveness of PrEP. Setting programmatic targets to estimate the number of people who are at substantial risk and who could benefit from PrEP is challenging. This study was done to provide a straightforward approach, with some country examples, to estimate PrEP need and to help prioritise the offer of PrEP in settings with high HIV prevalence. What did the researchers do and find? We used modelled subnational age- and sex-specific HIV incidence estimates with population survey data from 3 countries to generate estimates of the increase in risk for people with behaviours that can be reported programmatically. Applying both these estimates together enabled us to calculate how many people fall into different broad categories of substantial HIV risk and therefore the sizes of potential populations that could benefit from PrEP. It also allows estimating the likely impact that PrEP could have on reducing new HIV infections if prioritised in this way. We found that the most focused approach of offering PrEP to women aged 15–34 years and men 20–34 years, with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months in high-incidence districts, lowered the number of person-years on PrEP needed to avert 1 HIV infection. A less prioritised approach, encouraging broader use of PrEP, would have a greater impact on population-level reduction of HIV infections, but will cost more. What do these findings mean? For comparatively more expensive prevention interventions like PrEP, prioritising factors such as geography, age, sex, and sexual behaviour allows subgroups with high average HIV incidence to be identified. As PrEP is scaled up, policy makers and funders will have to make careful decisions that balance costs, impact, demand, and the basic rights of individuals to access highly effective prevention tools.

Summary Background 3 billion people worldwide rely on polluting fuels and technologies for domestic cooking and heating. We estimate the global, regional, and national health burden associated with exposure to household air pollution. Methods For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we systematically searched four databases for studies published from database inception to April 2, 2020, that evaluated the risk of adverse cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal outcomes from exposure to household air pollution, compared with no exposure. We used a random-effects model to calculate disease-specific relative risk (RR) meta-estimates. Household air pollution exposure was defined as use of polluting fuels (coal, wood, charcoal, agricultural wastes, animal dung, or kerosene) for household cooking or heating. Temporal trends in mortality and disease burden associated with household air pollution, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were estimated from 2000 to 2017 using exposure prevalence data from 183 of 193 UN member states. 95% CIs were estimated by propagating uncertainty from the RR meta-estimates, prevalence of household air pollution exposure, and disease-specific mortality and burden estimates using a simulation-based approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019125060. Findings 476 studies (15·5 million participants) from 123 nations (99 [80%] of which were classified as low-income and middle-income) met the inclusion criteria. Household air pollution was positively associated with asthma (RR 1·23, 95% CI 1·11–1·36), acute respiratory infection in both adults (1·53, 1·22–1·93) and children (1·39, 1·29–1·49), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1·70, 1·47–1·97), lung cancer (1·69, 1·44–1·98), and tuberculosis (1·26, 1·08–1·48); cerebrovascular disease (1·09, 1·04–1·14) and ischaemic heart disease (1·10, 1·09–1·11); and low birthweight (1·36, 1·19–1·55) and stillbirth (1·22, 1·06–1·41); as well as with under-5 (1·25, 1·18–1·33), respiratory (1·19, 1·18–1·20), and cardiovascular (1·07, 1·04–1·11) mortality. Household air pollution was associated with 1·8 million (95% CI 1·1–2·7) deaths and 60·9 million (34·6–93·3) DALYs in 2017, with the burden overwhelmingly experienced in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; 60·8 million [34·6–92·9] DALYs) compared with high-income countries (0·09 million [0·01–0·40] DALYs). From 2000, mortality associated with household air pollution had reduced by 36% (95% CI 29–43) and disease burden by 30% (25–36), with the greatest reductions observed in higher-income nations. Interpretation The burden of cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal diseases associated with household air pollution has declined worldwide but remains high in the world's poorest regions. Urgent integrated health and energy strategies are needed to reduce the adverse health impact of household air pollution, especially in LMICs. Funding British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

To report on relevant national surveillance systems of (N)CC and taeniasis (the infection with the adult tapeworm) in the European Union/European Economic Area and to assess the magnitude of (N)CC occurrence by retrieving information on cases for the period 2000-2016.(N)CC cases were retrieved via national reporting systems, a systematic literature search, contact with clinicians and a search for relevant 'International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems' (ICD)-based data.Mandatory notification systems for (N)CC were found in Hungary, Iceland and Poland. Ten cases were reported in Poland and none in Hungary and Iceland. Through the systematic literature review and information given by clinicians, 263 individual and 721 aggregated (N)CC cases from 19 European countries were identified. ICD-based data were obtained from five countries. From 2000 to 2016, a total of 3489 cases (N)CC cases were coded: 832 in Italy, eight in Latvia, 357 in Portugal, 2116 in Spain and 176 in Sweden.Despite being classified as a possible eradicable disease, (N)CC is still diagnosed across Europe, yet its true extent and impact remain unclear.Rapporter sur les systèmes nationaux de surveillance pertinents de la (neuro)cysticercose (N)CC et de la téniase (infection par le ténia adulte) dans l'Union européenne/l'Espace économique européen, et évaluer l'ampleur de l'occurrence de la (N)CC en reprenant des informations sur les cas durant la période 2000-2016. MÉTHODES: Les cas de (N)CC ont été repris à partir des systèmes nationaux de notification, une recherche systématique de la littérature, des contacts avec des cliniciens et une recherche de données pertinentes basées sur la ‘Classification Statistique Internationale des Maladies et Problèmes de Santé Connexes’ (ICD). RÉSULTATS: Des systèmes de notification obligatoires pour la (N)CC ont été trouvés en Hongrie, en Islande et en Pologne. Dix cas ont été rapportés en Pologne et aucun en Hongrie et en Islande. Grâce à la revue systématique de la littérature et aux informations fournies par les cliniciens, 263 cas individuels et 721 cas agrégés de (N)CC de 19 pays européens ont été identifiés. Des données ICD ont été obtenues de cinq pays. De 2000 à 2016, un total de 3489 cas de (N)CC ont été codés: 832 en Italie, 8 en Lettonie, 357 au Portugal, 2116 en Espagne et 176 en Suède.Bien qu'elle soit classée comme une maladie pouvant être éradiquée, la (N)CC est toujours diagnostiquée à travers l'Europe, mais sa véritable ampleur et son impact restent incertains .

Background: With advances in antiretroviral therapy, most deaths in people with HIV are now attributable to noncommunicable illnesses, especially cardiovascular disease. We determine the association between HIV and cardiovascular disease, and estimate the national, regional, and global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to HIV. Methods: We conducted a systematic review across 5 databases from inception to August 2016 for longitudinal studies of cardiovascular disease in HIV infection. A random-effects meta-analysis across 80 studies was used to derive the pooled rate and risk of cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV. We then estimated the temporal changes in the population-attributable fraction and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from HIV-associated cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2015 at a regional and global level. National cardiovascular DALYs associated with HIV for 2015 were derived for 154 of the 193 United Nations member states. The main outcome measure was the pooled estimate of the rate and risk of cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV and the national, regional, and global estimates of DALYs from cardiovascular disease associated with HIV. Results: In 793 635 people living with HIV and a total follow-up of 3.5 million person-years, the crude rate of cardiovascular disease was 61.8 (95% CI, 45.8–83.4) per 10 000 person-years. In comparison with individuals without HIV, the risk ratio for cardiovascular disease was 2.16 (95% CI, 1.68–2.77). Over the past 26 years, the global population–attributable fraction from cardiovascular disease attributable to HIV increased from 0.36% (95% CI, 0.21%–0.56%) to 0.92% (95% CI, 0.55%–1.41%), and DALYs increased from 0.74 (95% CI, 0.44–1.16) to 2.57 (95% CI, 1.53–3.92) million. There was marked regional variation with most DALYs lost in sub-Saharan Africa (0.87 million, 95% CI, 0.43–1.70) and the Asia Pacific (0.39 million, 95% CI, 0.23–0.62) regions. The highest population-attributable fraction and burden were observed in Swaziland, Botswana, and Lesotho. Conclusions: People living with HIV are twice as likely to develop cardiovascular disease. The global burden of HIV-associated cardiovascular disease has tripled over the past 2 decades and is now responsible for 2.6 million DALYs per annum with the greatest impact in sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific regions. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero . Unique identifier: CRD42016048257.

BackgroundThe increasing numbers of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have near normal life-expectancy, resulting in more people living with HIV over the age of 50 years (PLHIV50+). Estimates of the number of PLHIV50+ are needed for the development of tailored therapeutic and prevention interventions at country, regional and global level.MethodsThe AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum software was used to compute the numbers of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS-related deaths for PLHIV50+ for the years 2000-2016. Projections until 2020 were calculated based on an assumed ART scale-up to 81% coverage by 2020, consistent with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets.ResultsGlobally, there were 5.7 million [4.7 million- 6.6 million] PLHIV50+ in 2016. The proportion of PLHIV50+ increased substantially from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2016 and is expected to increase to 21% by 2020. In 2016, 80% of PLHIV50+ lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with Eastern and Southern Africa containing the largest number of PLHIV50+. While the proportion of PLHIV50+ was greater in high income countries, LMICs have higher numbers of PLHIV50+ that are expected to continue to increase by 2020.ConclusionsThe number of PLHIV50+ has increased dramatically since 2000 and this is expected to continue by 2020, especially in LMICs. HIV prevention campaigns, testing and treatment programs should also focus on the specific needs of PLHIV50+. Integrated health and social services should be developed to cater for the changing physical, psychological and social needs of PLHIV50+, many of whom will need to use HIV and non-HIV services.

Heart failure may occur following acute myocardial infarction, but with the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays we increasingly diagnose patients with minor myocardial injury. Whether troponin concentrations remain a useful predictor of heart failure in patients with acute coronary syndrome is uncertain.We identified all consecutive patients (n = 4748) with suspected acute coronary syndrome (61 ± 16 years, 57% male) presenting to three secondary and tertiary care hospitals. Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration and subsequent heart failure hospitalization. C-statistics were estimated to evaluate the predictive value of troponin for heart failure hospitalization. Over 2071 years of follow-up there were 83 heart failure hospitalizations. Patients with troponin concentrations above the upper reference limit (URL) were more likely to be hospitalized with heart failure than patients below the URL (118/1000 vs. 17/1000 person years, adjusted hazard ratio: 7.0). Among patients with troponin concentrationsURL the rate of heart failure hospitalization was 2.80-fold higher [95% confidence interval (95% CI 1.81-4.31)] per doubling of troponin concentration. On adding troponin to a model with demographic, cardiovascular risk factor, and clinical variables, the prediction of heart failure hospitalization improved considerably (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.86, P 0.001).Cardiac troponin is an excellent predictor of heart failure hospitalization in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. The strongest associations were observed in patients with troponin concentrations in the normal reference range, in whom high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays identify those at increased risk of heart failure who may benefit from further investigation and treatment.

Background: Rates of myocardial infarction in firefighters are increased during fire suppression duties, and are likely to reflect a combination of factors including extreme physical exertion and heat exposure. We assessed the effects of simulated fire suppression on measures of cardiovascular health in healthy firefighters. Methods: In an open-label randomized crossover study, 19 healthy firefighters (age, 41±7 years; 16 males) performed a standardized training exercise in a fire simulation facility or light duties for 20 minutes. After each exposure, ex vivo thrombus formation, fibrinolysis, platelet activation, and forearm blood flow in response to intra-arterial infusions of endothelial-dependent and -independent vasodilators were measured. Results: After fire simulation training, core temperature increased (1.0±0.1°C) and weight reduced (0.46±0.14 kg, P P P =0.03). There was a dose-dependent increase in forearm blood flow with all vasodilators ( P P =0.01) and sodium nitroprusside ( P =0.004). This was associated with a rise in fibrinolytic capacity, asymptomatic myocardial ischemia, and an increase in plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations (1.4 [0.8–2.5] versus 3.0 [1.7–6.4] ng/L, P =0.010). Conclusions: Exposure to extreme heat and physical exertion during fire suppression activates platelets, increases thrombus formation, impairs vascular function, and promotes myocardial ischemia and injury in healthy firefighters. Our findings provide pathogenic mechanisms to explain the association between fire suppression activity and acute myocardial infarction in firefighters. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01812317.