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Background Testing a hypothesis for ‘factors-outcome effect’ is a common quest, but standard statistical regression analysis tools are rendered ineffective by data contaminated with too many noisy variables. Expert Systems (ES) can provide an alternative methodology in analysing data to identify variables with the highest correlation to the outcome. By applying their effective machine learning (ML) abilities, significant research time and costs can be saved. The study aims to systematically review the applications of ES in urological research and their methodological models for effective multi-variate analysis. Their domains, development and validity will be identified. Methods The PRISMA methodology was applied to formulate an effective method for data gathering and analysis. This study search included seven most relevant information sources: WEB OF SCIENCE, EMBASE, BIOSIS CITATION INDEX, SCOPUS, PUBMED, Google Scholar and MEDLINE. Eligible articles were included if they applied one of the known ML models for a clear urological research question involving multivariate analysis. Only articles with pertinent research methods in ES models were included. The analysed data included the system model, applications, input/output variables, target user, validation, and outcomes. Both ML models and the variable analysis were comparatively reported for each system. Results The search identified n = 1087 articles from all databases and n = 712 were eligible for examination against inclusion criteria. A total of 168 systems were finally included and systematically analysed demonstrating a recent increase in uptake of ES in academic urology in particular artificial neural networks with 31 systems. Most of the systems were applied in urological oncology (prostate cancer = 15, bladder cancer = 13) where diagnostic, prognostic and survival predictor markers were investigated. Due to the heterogeneity of models and their statistical tests, a meta-analysis was not feasible. Conclusion ES utility offers an effective ML potential and their applications in research have demonstrated a valid model for multi-variate analysis. The complexity of their development can challenge their uptake in urological clinics whilst the limitation of the statistical tools in this domain has created a gap for further research studies. Integration of computer scientists in academic units has promoted the use of ES in clinical urological research.

Food variety influences appetitive behaviour, motivation to eat and energy intake. Research found that repeated exposure to varied food images increases the motivation towards food in adults and children. This study investigates the effects of repetition on the modulation of early and late components of event-related potentials (ERPs) when participants passively viewed the same food and non-food images repeatedly. The motivational attention to food and non-food images were assessed in frontal, centroparietal, parietooccipital and occipitotemporal areas of the brain. Participants showed increased late positive potential (late ERP component) to high caloric image in the occipitotemporal region compared to low caloric and non-food images. Similar effects could be seen in the early ERP component in the frontal region, but with reversed polarity. Data suggest that both the early and late ERP components show greater ERP amplitude when viewing high caloric images than low caloric and non-food images. Despite repeated exposure to same image, high caloric food continued to show sustained attention compared to low caloric and non-food image.

Background Prostate cancer (CaP) has a rising number of patients requiring routine follow up. In this study, we aimed to test a computer led follow up service for prostate cancer in two UK hospitals. The testing aimed to validate the computer Expert system in making clinical decisions according to the individual patient’s clinical need. The valid model should accurately identify patients with disease recurrence or treatment failure based on their blood test and clinical picture. Methods A clinical decision support system (CDSS) was developed from European (EAU) and national (NICE) guidelines along with knowledge acquired from Urologists. This model was then applied in two UK hospitals to review patients post CaP treatment. These patients’ data (n= 200) were then reviewed by two independent Urology consultants (blinded from the CDSS and other consultant’s rating) and the agreement was calculated by kappa statistics for validation. The second objective aimed to verify the system by estimating the system reliability. Results The two individual urology consultants identified 12 % & 15% of the patients to have potential disease progression and recommended their referral to the Urology care. The kappa coefficient for the agreement between the CDSS and the 2 consultants was 0.81 (p < 0.001) and 0.84 (p < 0.001). The agreement among both specialist was also high with k = 0.83 (p < 0.001). The system reliability was estimated on all cases and this demonstrated 100% repeatability of the decisions. Conclusion The computer led follow up is a valid model for providing safe follow up for prostate cancer.

One of the methods for stratifying different molecular classes of breast cancer is the Nottingham prognostic index plus, which uses breast cancer relevant biomarkers to stain tumor tissues prepared on tissue microarray (TMA). To determine the molecular class of the tumor, pathologists will have to manually mark the nuclei activity biomarkers through a microscope and use a semi-quantitative assessment method to assign a histochemical score (H-Score) to each TMA core. Manually marking positively stained nuclei is a time-consuming, imprecise, and subjective process, which will lead to inter-observer and intra-observer discrepancies. In this paper, we present an end-to-end deep learning system, which directly predicts the H-Score automatically. Our system imitates the pathologists' decision process and uses one fully convolutional network (FCN) to extract all nuclei region (tumor and non-tumor), a second FCN to extract tumor nuclei region, and a multi-column convolutional neural network, which takes the outputs of the first two FCNs and the stain intensity description image as an input and acts as the high-level decision making mechanism to directly output the H-Score of the input TMA image. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end system that takes a TMA image as the input and directly outputs a clinical score. We will present experimental results, which demonstrate that the H-Scores predicted by our model have very high and statistically significant correlation with experienced pathologists' scores and that the H-Score discrepancy between our algorithm and the pathologists is on par with the inter-subject discrepancy between the pathologists.

BACKGROUND: Despite previous identification of pre-operative clinical and radiological predictors of post-operative paediatric cerebellar mutism syndrome (CMS), a unifying pre-operative risk stratification model for use during surgical consent is currently lacking. The aim of the project is to develop a simple imaging-based pre-operative risk scoring scheme to stratify patients in terms of post-operative CMS risk.\ud METHODS: Pre-operative radiological features were recorded for a retrospectively assembled cohort of 89 posterior fossa tumour patients from two major UK treatment centers (age 2-23yrs; gender 28 M, 61 F; diagnosis: 38 pilocytic astrocytoma, 32 medulloblastoma, 12 ependymoma, 1 high grade glioma, 1 pilomyxoid astrocytoma, 1 atypical teratoid rhabdoid tumour, 1 hemangioma, 1 neurilemmoma, 2 oligodendroglioma). Twenty-six (29%) developed post-operative CMS. Based upon results from univariate analysis and C4.5 decision tree, stepwise logistic regression was used to develop the optimal model and generate risk scores.\ud RESULTS: Univariate analysis identified five significant risk factors and C4.5 decision tree analysis identified six predictors. Variables included in the final model are MRI primary location, bilateral middle cerebellar peduncle involvement (invasion and/or compression), dentate nucleus invasion and age at imaging >12.4 years. This model has an accuracy of 88.8% (79/89). Using risk score cut-off of 203 and 238, respectively, allowed discrimination into low (38/89, predicted CMS probability

Background: Altered cellular metabolism is a hallmark of cancer and some are reliant on glutamine for sustained proliferation and survival. We hypothesise that the glutamine–proline regulatory axis has a key role in breast cancer (BC) in the highly proliferative classes. Methods: Glutaminase (GLS), pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (ALDH18A1), and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase 1 (PYCR1) were assessed at DNA/mRNA/protein levels in large, well-characterised cohorts. Results: Gain of PYCR1 copy number and high PYCR1 mRNA was associated with Luminal B tumours. High ALDH18A1 and high GLS protein expression was observed in the oestrogen receptor (ER)+/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)– high proliferation class (Luminal B) compared with ER+/HER2– low proliferation class (Luminal A) (P=0.030 and P=0.022 respectively), however this was not observed with mRNA. Cluster analysis of the glutamine–proline regulatory axis genes revealed significant associations with molecular subtypes of BC and patient outcome independent of standard clinicopathological parameters (P=0.012). High protein expression of the glutamine–proline enzymes were all associated with high MYC protein in Luminal B tumours only (P

Breast Cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer death in women, representing a very complex disease with varied molecular alterations. To assist breast cancer prognosis, the classification of patients into biological groups is of great significance for treatment strategies. Recent studies have used an ensemble of multiple clustering algorithms to elucidate the most characteristic biological groups of breast cancer. However, the combination of various clustering methods resulted in a number of patients remaining unclustered. Therefore, a framework still needs to be developed which can assign as many unclustered (i.e. biologically diverse) patients to one of the identified groups in order to improve classification. Therefore, in this paper we develop a novel classification framework which introduces a new ensemble classification stage after the ensemble clustering stage to target the unclustered patients. Thus, a step-by-step pipeline is introduced which couples ensemble clustering with ensemble classification for the identification of core groups, data distribution in them and improvement in final classification results by targeting the unclustered data. The proposed pipeline is employed on a novel real world breast cancer dataset and subsequently its robustness and stability are examined by testing it on standard datasets. The results show that by using the presented framework, an improved classification is obtained. Finally, the results have been verified using statistical tests, visualisation techniques, cluster quality assessment and interpretation from clinical experts.

Background: Current management of breast cancer (BC) relies on risk stratification based on well-defined clinicopathologic factors. Global gene expression profiling studies have demonstrated that BC comprises distinct molecular classes with clinical relevance. In this study, we hypothesised that molecular features of BC are a key driver of tumour behaviour and when coupled with a novel and bespoke application of established clinicopathologic prognostic variables can predict both clinical outcome and relevant therapeutic options more accurately than existing methods.\ud \ud Methods: In the current study, a comprehensive panel of biomarkers with relevance to BC was applied to a large and well-characterised series of BC, using immunohistochemistry and different multivariate clustering techniques, to identify the key molecular classes. Subsequently, each class was further stratified using a set of well-defined prognostic clinicopathologic variables. These variables were combined in formulae to prognostically stratify different molecular classes, collectively known as the Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+). The NPI+ was then used to predict outcome in the different molecular classes.\ud \ud Results: Seven core molecular classes were identified using a selective panel of 10 biomarkers. Incorporation of clinicopathologic variables in a second-stage analysis resulted in identification of distinct prognostic groups within each molecular class (NPI+). Outcome analysis showed that using the bespoke NPI formulae for each biological BC class provides improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI.\ud \ud Conclusion: This study provides proof-of-principle evidence for the use of NPI+ in supporting improved individualised clinical decision making.

Background: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease characterised by complex molecular alterations underlying the varied behaviour and response to therapy. However, translation of cancer genetic profiling for use in routine clinical practice remains elusive or prohibitively expensive. As an alternative, immunohistochemical analysis applied to routinely processed tissue samples could be used to identify distinct biological classes of breast cancer. Methods: In this study, 1073 archival breast tumours previously assessed for 25 key breast cancer biomarkers using immunohistochemistry and classified using clustering algorithms were further refined using naïve Bayes classification performance. Criteria for class membership were defined using the expression of a reduced panel of 10 proteins able to identify key molecular classes. We examined the association between these breast cancer classes with clinicopathological factors and patient outcome. Results: We confirm patient classification similar to established genotypic biological classes of breast cancer in addition to novel sub-divisions of luminal and basal tumours. Correlations between classes and clinicopathological parameters were in line with expectations and showed highly significant association with patient outcome. Furthermore, our novel biological class stratification provides additional prognostic information to the Nottingham Prognostic Index. Conclusion: This study confirms that distinct molecular phenotypes of breast cancer can be identified using robust and routinely available techniques and both the luminal and basal breast cancer phenotypes are heterogeneous and contain distinct subgroups.

Post-translational histone modifications are known to be altered in cancer cells, and loss of selected histone acetylation and methylation marks has recently been shown to predict patient outcome in human carcinoma. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect a series of histone lysine acetylation (H3K9ac, H3K18ac, H4K12ac, and H4K16ac), lysine methylation (H3K4me2 and H4K20me3), and arginine methylation (H4R3me2) marks in a well-characterized series of human breast carcinomas (n = 880). Tissue staining intensities were assessed using blinded semiquantitative scoring. Validation studies were done using immunofluorescence staining and Western blotting. Our analyses revealed low or absent H4K16ac in the majority of breast cancer cases (78.9%), suggesting that this alteration may represent an early sign of breast cancer. There was a highly significant correlation between histone modifications status, tumor biomarker phenotype, and clinical outcome, where high relative levels of global histone acetylation and methylation were associated with a favorable prognosis and detected almost exclusively in luminal-like breast tumors (93%). Moderate to low levels of lysine acetylation (H3K9ac, H3K18ac, and H4K12ac), lysine (H3K4me2 and H4K20me3), and arginine methylation (H4R3me2) were observed in carcinomas of poorer prognostic subtypes, including basal carcinomas and HER-2-positive tumors. Clustering analysis identified three groups of histone displaying distinct pattern in breast cancer, which have distinct relationships to known prognostic factors and clinical outcome. This study identifies the presence of variations in global levels of histone marks in different grades, morphologic types, and phenotype classes of invasive breast cancer and shows that these differences have clinical significance. [Cancer Res 2009;69(9):3802–9]

The Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) is based on the assessment of biological class combined with established clinicopathologic prognostic variables providing improved patient outcome stratification for breast cancer superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to determine prognostic capability of the NPI+ in predicting risk of development of distant disease. A well-characterised series of 1073 primary early-stage BC cases treated in Nottingham and 251 cases from Budapest were immunohistochemically assessed for cytokeratin (Ck)5/6, Ck18, EGFR, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, HER3, HER4, Mucin 1 and p53 expression. NPI+ biological class and prognostic scores were assigned using individual algorithms for each biological class incorporating clinicopathologic parameters and investigated in terms of prediction of distant metastases-free survival (MFS). The NPI+ identified distinct prognostic groups (PG) within each molecular class which were predictive of MFS providing improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. NPI+ PGs, between series, were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in luminal A, basal p53 altered and HER2+/ER+ (p 0.01) tumours. The low-risk groups were similarly validated in luminal B, luminal N, basal p53 normal tumours (p 0.01). Due to small patient numbers the remaining PGs could not be validated. NPI+ was additionally able to predict a higher risk of metastases at certain distant sites. This study may indicate the NPI+ as a useful tool in predicting the risk of metastases. The NPI+ provides accurate risk stratification allowing improved individualised clinical decision making for breast cancer.

Accurate distant metastasis (DM) prediction is critical for risk stratification and effective treatment decisions in breast cancer (BC). Many prognostic markers/models based on tissue marker studies are continually emerging using conventional statistical approaches analysing complex/dimensional data association with DM/poor prognosis. However, few of them have fulfilled satisfactory evidences for clinical application. This study aimed at building DM risk assessment algorithm for BC patients. A well-characterised series of early invasive primary operable BC (n=1902), with immunohistochemical (IHC) expression of a panel of biomarkers (n=31) formed the material of this study. Decision tree algorithm was computed using WEKA software, utilising quantitative biomarkers’ expression and the absence/presence of distant metastases. Fifteen biomarkers were significantly associated with DM, with six temporal subgroups characterised based on time-to-development of DM ranging from < 1 year to > 15 years of follow-up. Of these 15 biomarkers, 10 had a significant expression pattern where Ki67LI, HER2, p53, N-cadherin, P-cadherin, PIK3CA and TOMM34 showed significantly higher expressions with earlier development of DM. In contrast, higher expressions of ER, PR, and BCL2, were associated with delayed occurrence of DM. DM prediction algorithm was built utilising cases informative for the 15 significant markers. Four risk groups of patients were characterised. Three markers; p53, HER2 and BCL2 predicted the probability of DM, based on software-generated cut-offs, with a precision rate of 81.1% for positive predictive value and 77.3%, for the negative predictive value. This algorithm reiterates the reported prognostic values of these three markers and underscores their central biologic role in BC progression. Further independent validation of this pruned panel of biomarkers is therefore warranted.

Background: Children are frequently prescribed medication off-label, meaning there has not been sufficient testing of the medication to determine its safety or effectiveness. The main reason this safety knowledge is lacking is due to ethical restrictions that prevent children from being included in the majority of clinical trials. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate whether an ensemble of simple study designs can be implemented to signal acutely occurring side effects effectively within the paediatric population by using historical longitudinal data. The majority of pharmacovigilance techniques are unsupervised, but this research presents a supervised framework. Methods: Multiple measures of association are calculated for each drug and medical event pair and these are used as features that are fed into a classiffier to determine the likelihood of the drug and medical event pair corresponding to an adverse drug reaction. The classiffier is trained using known adverse drug reactions or known non-adverse drug reaction relationships. Results: The novel ensemble framework obtained a false positive rate of 0:149, a sensitivity of 0:547 and a specificity of 0:851 when implemented on a reference set of drug and medical event pairs. The novel framework consistently outperformed each individual simple study design. Conclusion: This research shows that it is possible to exploit the mechanism of causality and presents a framework for signalling adverse drug reactions effectively., Drug Safety, 37 (3), pp. 163-170, 2014

Drugs are frequently prescribed to patients with the aim of improving each patient's medical state, but an unfortunate consequence of most prescription drugs is the occurrence of undesirable side effects. Side effects that occur in more than one in a thousand patients are likely to be signaled efficiently by current drug surveillance methods, however, these same methods may take decades before generating signals for rarer side effects, risking medical morbidity or mortality in patients prescribed the drug while the rare side effect is undiscovered. In this paper, we propose a novel computational metaanalysis framework for signaling rare side effects that integrates existing methods, knowledge from the web, metric learning, and semisupervised clustering. The novel framework was able to signal many known rare and serious side effects for the selection of drugs investigated, such as tendon rupture when prescribed Ciprofloxacin or Levofloxacin, renal failure with Naproxen and depression associated with Rimonabant. Furthermore, for the majority of the drugs investigated it generated signals for rare side effects at a more stringent signaling threshold than existing methods and shows the potential to become a fundamental part of post marketing surveillance to detect rare side effects. © 2013 IEEE.

Breast cancer is recognised to be a heteroge- neous disease and the second most common cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide in women. Basal-like breast cancer (BLBC) is associated with aggressive char- acteristics including development of recurrent disease and reduced survival. BLBC has been defined in some studies as tumours lacking both oestrogen receptor and proges- terone receptor protein expression. Gene expression studies have shown that these tumours are also associated with expression of basal-type cytokeratins, the phenotypic pat- terns of basal cytokeratin expression in BLBC have not been widely studied. A well-characterised series of 995 invasive breast cancers with a long-term follow up were investigated using immunohistochemical staining for four basal cytokeratins (CK5, CK5/6, CK14 and CK17). The data were analysed using univariate and clustering analysis. As a result BLBC, as defined by negativity for ER and HER2 showed variable positivity for basal cytokeratin expression: 61.7 % CK5, 50.5 % CK5/6, 24.2 % CK14 and 23 % CK17. These characteristics were associated with poor outcome characteristics including high histological grade, mitosis, pleomorphism and tumour size (1.5 cm. CK5 positivity was more associated with ER - , PgR - ,T N and double ER - PgR - , than the other cytokeratins. Four different clusters of basal cytokeratin expression patterns were identified: (1) negativity for all basal cytokeratins, (2) CK5 ? /CK17 - , (3) CK5 - /CK17 ? and (4) CK5 ? /CK17 ? . These patterns of basal cytokeratin expression associated with differences in patient outcome, clusters 1 and 3 showed better outcomes than cluster 4 and 2, with cluster 2 having the poorest prognosis. In conclusion, four basal cytokeratin expression patterns were identified in human breast cancer using unsupervised clustering analysis and these patterns are associated with differences in patient outcome.

Background: As age advances breast cancer appears to change its biological characteristics, however, very limited data are available to define the precise differences between older and younger patients. Methods: Over 36 years (1973–2009), 1758 older (⩾70 years) women with early operable primary breast cancer were managed in a dedicated clinic. In all, 813 underwent primary surgery and 575 good quality tumour samples were available for biological analysis. The pattern of biomarkers was analysed using indirect immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. Comparison was made with a previously characterised series of younger (

Objectives: Recent studies of breast cancer data have identified seven distinct clinical phenotypes (groups) using immunohistochemical analysis and a range of different clustering techniques. Consensus between unsupervised classification algorithms has been successfully used to categorise patients into these specific groups, but often at the expenses of not classifying the whole set. It is known that fuzzy methodologies can provide linguistic based classification rules. The objective of this study was to investigate the use of fuzzy methodologies to create an easy to interpret set of classification rules, capable of placing the large majority of patients into one of the specified groups. Materials and methods: In this paper, we extend a data-driven fuzzy rule-based system for classification purposes (called 'fuzzy quantification subsethood-based algorithm') and combine it with a novel class assignment procedure. The whole approach is then applied to a well characterised breast cancer dataset consisting of ten protein markers for over 1000 patients to refine previously identified groups and to present clinicians with a linguistic ruleset. A range of statistical approaches was used to compare the obtained classes to previously obtained groupings and to assess the proportion of unclassified patients. Results: A rule set was obtained from the algorithm which features one classification rule per class, using labels of High, Low or Omit for each biomarker, to determine the most appropriate class for each patient. When applied to the whole set of patients, the distribution of the obtained classes had an agreement of 0.9 when assessed using Kendall's Tau with the original reference class distribution. In doing so, only 38 patients out of 1073 remain unclassified, representing a more clinically usable class assignment algorithm. Conclusion: The fuzzy algorithm provides a simple to interpret, linguistic rule set which classifies over 95% of breast cancer patients into one of seven clinical groups.

Single clustering methods have often been used to elucidate clusters in high dimensional medical data, even though reliance on a single algorithm is known to be problematic. In this paper, we present a methodology to determine a set of ‘core classes’ by using a range of techniques to reach consensus across several different clustering algorithms, and to ascertain the key characteristics of these classes. We apply the methodology to immunohistochemical data from breast cancer patients. In doing so, we identify six core classes, of which several may be novel sub-groups not previously emphasised in literature.