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We propose a Bayesian population modeling and virtual bioequivalence assessment approach to establishing dissolution specifications for oral dosage forms. A generalizable semi-physiologically based pharmacokinetic absorption model with six gut segments and liver, connected to a two-compartment model of systemic disposition for bupropion hydrochloride oral dosage forms was developed. Prior information on model parameters for gut physiology, bupropion physicochemical properties, and drug product properties were obtained from the literature. The release of bupropion hydrochloride from immediate-, sustained- and extended-release oral dosage forms was described by a Weibull function. In vitro dissolution data were used to assign priors to the in vivo release properties of the three bupropion formulations. We applied global sensitivity analysis to identify the influential parameters for plasma bupropion concentrations and calibrated them. To quantify inter- and intra-individual variability, plasma concentration profiles in healthy volunteers that received the three dosage forms, each at two doses, were used. The calibrated model was in good agreement with both in vitro dissolution and in vivo exposure data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples from the joint posterior parameter distribution were used to simulate virtual crossover clinical trials for each formulation with distinct drug dissolution profiles. For each trial, an allowable range of dissolution parameters ("safe space") in which bioequivalence can be anticipated was established. These findings can be used to assure consistent product performance throughout the drug product life-cycle and to support manufacturing changes. Our framework provides a comprehensive approach to support decision-making in drug product development.

A full Bayesian statistical treatment of complex pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic models, in particular in a population context, gives access to powerful inference, including on model structure. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are typically used to estimate the joint posterior parameter distribution of interest. Among MCMC samplers, the simulated tempering algorithm (TMCMC) has a number of advantages : it can sample from sharp multi-modal posteriors; it provides insight into identifiability issues useful for model simplification; it can be used to compute accurate Bayes factors for model choice; the simulated Markov chains mix quickly and have assured convergence in certain conditions. The main challenge when implementing this approach is to find an adequate scale of auxiliary inverse temperatures (perks) and associated scaling constants. We solved that problem by adaptive stochastic optimization and describe our implementation of TMCMC sampling in the GNU MCSim software. Once a grid of perks is obtained, it is easy to perform posterior-tempered MCMC sampling or likelihood-tempered MCMC (thermodynamic integration, which bridges the joint prior and the posterior parameter distributions, with assured convergence of a single sampling chain). We compare TMCMC to other samplers and demonstrate its efficient sampling of multi-modal posteriors and calculation of Bayes factors in two stylized case-studies and two realistic population pharmacokinetic inference problems, one of them involving a large PBPK model.

To reconcile and unify available results regarding paraquat exposure and Parkinson's disease (PD), we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide a quantitative estimate of the risk of PD associated with paraquat exposure. Six scientific databases including PubMed, Cochrane libraries, EMBASE, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge, and TOXLINE were systematically searched. The overall odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model. Of 7,309 articles identified, 13 case control studies with 3,231 patients and 4,901 controls were included into our analysis. Whereas, one prospective cohort studies was included into our systematic review. A subsequent meta-analysis showed an association between PD and paraquat exposure (odds ratio = 1.64 (95% CI: 1.27-2.13

Rifapentine (RPT) is a rifamycin antimycobacterial and, as part of a combination therapy, is indicated for the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis . Although the results from a number of studies indicate that rifapentine has the potential to shorten treatment duration and enhance completion rates compared to other rifamycin agents utilized in antituberculosis drug regimens (i.e., regimens 1 to 4), its optimal dose and exposure in humans are unknown. To help inform such an optimization, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to predict time course, tissue-specific concentrations of RPT and its active metabolite, 25-desacetyl rifapentine (dRPT), in humans after specified administration schedules for RPT. Starting with the development and verification of a PBPK model for rats, the model was extrapolated and then tested using human pharmacokinetic data. Testing and verification of the models included comparisons of predictions to experimental data in several rat tissues and time course RPT and dRPT plasma concentrations in humans from several single- and repeated-dosing studies. Finally, the model was used to predict RPT concentrations in the lung during the intensive and continuation phases of a current recommended TB treatment regimen. Based on these results, it is anticipated that the PBPK model developed in this study will be useful in evaluating dosing regimens for RPT and for characterizing tissue-level doses that could be predictors of problems related to efficacy or safety.

The principal aim of this study was to develop, validate, and demonstrate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict and characterize the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of acetaminophen (APAP) in humans. A PBPK model was created that included pharmacologically and toxicologically relevant tissue compartments and incorporated mechanistic descriptions of the absorption and metabolism of APAP, such as gastric emptying time, cofactor kinetics, and transporter-mediated movement of conjugated metabolites in the liver. Through the use of a hierarchical Bayesian framework, unknown model parameters were estimated using a large training set of data from human pharmacokinetic studies, resulting in parameter distributions that account for data uncertainty and inter-study variability. Predictions from the model showed good agreement to a diverse test set of data across several measures, including plasma concentrations over time, renal clearance, APAP absorption, and pharmacokinetic and exposure metrics. The utility of the model was then demonstrated through predictions of cofactor depletion, dose response of several pharmacokinetic endpoints, and the relationship between APAP biomarker levels in the plasma and those in the liver. The model addressed several limitations in previous PBPK models for APAP, and it is anticipated that it will be useful in predicting the pharmacokinetics of APAP in a number of contexts, such as extrapolating across doses, estimating internal concentrations, quantifying population variability, assessing possible impacts of drug coadministration, and, when coupled with a suitable pharmacodynamic model, predicting toxicity.

Background: Organophosphorus (OP) compounds are the most widely used group of insecticides in the world. Risk assessments for these chemicals have focused primarily on 10% inhibition of acetylcholinesterase in the brain as the critical metric of effect. Aside from cholinergic effects resulting from acute exposure, many studies suggest a linkage between cognitive deficits and long-term OP exposure. Objective: In this proof-of-concept study, we focused on one of the most widely used OP insecticides in the world, chlorpyrifos (CPF), and utilized an existing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and a novel pharmacodynamic (PD) dose–response model to develop a point of departure benchmark dose estimate for cognitive deficits following long-term, low-dose exposure to this chemical in rodents. Methods: Utilizing a validated PBPK/PD model for CPF, we generated a database of predicted biomarkers of exposure and internal dose metrics in both rat and human. Using simulated peak brain CPF concentrations, we developed a dose–response model to predict CPF-induced spatial memory deficits and correlated these changes to relevant biomarkers of exposure to derive a benchmark dose specific to neurobehavioral changes. We extended these cognitive deficit predictions to humans and simulated corresponding exposures using a model parameterized for humans. Results: Results from this study indicate that the human-equivalent benchmark dose (BMD) based on a 15% cognitive deficit as an end point is lower than that using the present threshold for 10% brain AChE inhibition. This predicted human-equivalent subchronic BMD threshold compares to occupational exposure levels determined from biomarkers of exposure and corresponds to similar exposure conditions where deficits in cognition are observed. Conclusions: Quantitative PD models based on neurobehavioral testing in animals offer an important addition to the methodologies used for establishing useful environmental public health indicators and BMDs, and predictions from such models could help inform the human health risk assessment for chlorpyrifos. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1743

The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has led to a renewed interest in the use of second-line antibiotic agents. Unfortunately, there are currently dearths of information, data, and computational models that can be used to help design rational regimens for administration of these drugs. To help fill this knowledge gap, an exploratory physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, supported by targeted experimental data, was developed to predict the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) of the second-line agent capreomycin, a cyclic peptide antibiotic often grouped with the aminoglycoside antibiotics. To account for interindividual variability, Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo methods were used for model calibration, validation, and testing. Along with the predictive PBPK model, the first for an antituberculosis agent, this study provides estimates of various key pharmacokinetic parameter distributions and supports a hypothesized mechanism for capreomycin transport into the kidney.

Background One problem of interpreting population-based biomonitoring data is the reconstruction of corresponding external exposure in cases where no such data are available. Objectives We demonstrate the use of a computational framework that integrates physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a population estimate of environmental chloroform source concentrations consistent with human biomonitoring data. The biomonitoring data consist of chloroform blood concentrations measured as part of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), and for which no corresponding exposure data were collected. Methods We used a combined PBPK and shower exposure model to consider several routes and sources of exposure: ingestion of tap water, inhalation of ambient household air, and inhalation and dermal absorption while showering. We determined posterior distributions for chloroform concentration in tap water and ambient household air using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (TEAM) data as prior distributions for the Bayesian analysis. Results Posterior distributions for exposure indicate that 95% of the population represented by the NHANES III data had likely chloroform exposures ≤ 67 μg/L in tap water and ≤ 0.02 μg/L in ambient household air. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the application of computer simulation to aid in the interpretation of human biomonitoring data in the context of the exposure–health evaluation–risk assessment continuum. These results should be considered as a demonstration of the method and can be improved with the addition of more detailed data.

In cases of paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) overdose, an accurate estimate of tissue-specific paracetamol pharmacokinetics (PK) and ingested dose can offer health care providers important information for the individualized treatment and follow-up of affected patients. Here a novel methodology is presented to make such estimates using a standard serum paracetamol measurement and a computational framework.The core component of the computational framework was a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed and evaluated using an extensive set of human PK data. Bayesian inference was used for parameter and dose estimation, allowing the incorporation of inter-study variability, and facilitating the calculation of uncertainty in model outputs.Simulations of paracetamol time course concentrations in the blood were in close agreement with experimental data under a wide range of dosing conditions. Also, predictions of administered dose showed good agreement with a large collection of clinical and emergency setting PK data over a broad dose range. In addition to dose estimation, the platform was applied for the determination of optimal blood sampling times for dose reconstruction and quantitation of the potential role of paracetamol conjugate measurement on dose estimation.Current therapies for paracetamol overdose rely on a generic methodology involving the use of a clinical nomogram. By using the computational framework developed in this study, serum sample data, and the individual patient's anthropometric and physiological information, personalized serum and liver pharmacokinetic profiles and dose estimate could be generated to help inform an individualized overdose treatment and follow-up plan.

Ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) has been recommended as an alternative regimen for HIV-naive patients who cannot tolerate nevirapine (NVP) and/or efavirenz (EFV). Although combinations of ritonavir and lopinavir have shown higher plasma concentration level of LPV in clinical settings, dosage adjustment is still required to maintain an adequate therapeutic efficacy and reduce side effects. A compartmental pharmacokinetic (PK) model of LPV/r was developed, including a mechanistic description of competitive inhibition. Systematic simulations were performed and predicted plasma drug concentration levels were compared with those from the literature. In particular, the simulated and experimental area under the curve (AUC) based on oral dosing were 76.10 μMol/L, and 76.25 μMol/L, respectively Results from the mathematical model support the hypothesis that the mechanism of LPV/r interaction is due to the competitive inhibition of CYP3A4 in the liver by ritonavir, resulting in an increasing LPV plasma concentration levels. The simulated plasma concentration-time courses were consistent with those from the literature with the goodness of fit (R(2)) of 0.9025 (0.8269-0.9862 95%CI).

This chapter lists some of the software and tools that are used in computational toxicology, as presented in this volume.

Cytochromes P450 (CYPs) are a superfamily of enzymes that metabolize the majority of xenobiotics in humans. This review presents a structure-based outline of CYP-catalyzed biotransformations of selected substrates, representing diverse structural classes of chemicals, ranging from drugs to toxicants. Data are presented in a tabular format for easy reference, with visual representations of all substrates and sites-of-attack. The major metabolites, isozymes responsible, chemical classification, and other information related to the biotransformation are provided. Pharmacophores proposed for the major CYP isozymes are discussed. This visual combination of substrates and biotransformation sites can serve as a useful reference for researchers.

Smoking and asbestos exposure are important risks for lung cancer. Several epidemiological studies have linked asbestos exposure and smoking to lung cancer. To reconcile and unify these results, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide a quantitative estimate of the increased risk of lung cancer associated with asbestos exposure and cigarette smoking and to classify their interaction. Five electronic databases were searched from inception to May, 2015 for observational studies on lung cancer. All case-control (N = 10) and cohort (N = 7) studies were included in the analysis. We calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs), relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a random-effects model for the association of asbestos exposure and smoking with lung cancer. Lung cancer patients who were not exposed to asbestos and non-smoking (A-S-) were compared with; (i) asbestos-exposed and non-smoking (A+S-), (ii) non-exposure to asbestos and smoking (A-S+), and (iii) asbestos-exposed and smoking (A+S+). Our meta-analysis showed a significant difference in risk of developing lung cancer among asbestos exposed and/or smoking workers compared to controls (A-S-), odds ratios for the disease (95% CI) were (i) 1.70 (A+S-, 1.31-2.21), (ii) 5.65; (A-S+, 3.38-9.42), (iii) 8.70 (A+S+, 5.8-13.10). The additive interaction index of synergy was 1.44 (95% CI = 1.26-1.77) and the multiplicative index = 0.91 (95% CI = 0.63-1.30). Corresponding values for cohort studies were 1.11 (95% CI = 1.00-1.28) and 0.51 (95% CI = 0.31-0.85). Our results point to an additive synergism for lung cancer with co-exposure of asbestos and cigarette smoking. Assessments of industrial health risks should take smoking and other airborne health risks when setting occupational asbestos exposure limits.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to systematically review and quantitatively synthesize the association between HLA-B*5701 and abacavir-induced hypersensitivity reaction (ABC-HSR). METHODS: We searched for studies that investigated the association between HLA-B genotype and ABC-HSR and provided information about the frequency of carriers of HLA-B genotypes among cases and controls. We then performed a meta-analysis with a random-effects model to pool the data and to investigate the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: From 1,026 articles identified, ten studies were included. Five using clinical manifestation as their diagnostic criteria, 409 and 1,883 subjects were included as cases and controls. Overall OR was 23.6 (95% CI = 15.4 – 36.3). Whereas, the another five studies using confirmed immunologic test as their diagnostic criteria, 110 and 1,968 subjects were included as cases and controls, respectively. The association of ABC-HSR was strong in this populations with HLA-B*5701. Overall OR was 1,056.2 (95% CI = 345.0 – 3,233.3). CONCLUSIONS: Using meta-analysis technique, the association between HLA-B*5701 and ABC-HSR is strong in the studies using immunologic confirmation to identify ABC-HSR. These results support the US FDA recommendations for screening HLA-B*5701 allele before initiating abacavir therapy.This article is open to POST-PUBLICATION REVIEW. Registered readers (see “For Readers”) may comment by clicking on ABSTRACT on the issue’s contents page.