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Background This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme in reducing annual colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its dynamic target population. Methods The target population included over 1,000,000 persons aged 50–69 living in a region of northern Italy. The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. Each observed annual age-standardised (Europe) rate per 100,000 persons between 2005, the year of introduction of the programme, and 2016 was compared with each expected annual rate as estimated with age-period-cohort (men) and age-period (women) models. Results For both sexes, the rates observed in 1997–2004 and those expected in 2005–2016 were stable. Observed rates increased in 2005, peaked in 2006 (the first full year of screening), dropped significantly below the expected level in 2009, and continued to decrease until 2013 (the eighth full year), after which no further significant changes occurred. In the pooled years 2013–2016, the observed incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 102.2 [95% CI: 97.4, 107.1] for men, 75.6 [95% CI: 71.6, 79.7] for women and 88.4 [95% CI: 85.3, 91.5] for both sexes combined, with an observed:expected incidence rate ratio of 0.68 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.71], 0.79 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.82] and 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66, 0.81], respectively. Discussion The study provided multiple consistent proofs of a causal relationship between the introduction of screening and a stable 28% decrease in annual CRC incidence after eight years.

The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has increased for decades in most Western countries - a trend virtually restricted to women aged50 or 60 years. In southern Europe, conversely, the trends have been insufficiently studied. This article reports a study from Italy.Thirty-eight local cancer registries, currently covering 15,274,070 women, equivalent to 49.2% of the Italian national female population, participated. Invasive cancers registered between 1990 and 2015 with an International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd revision, topography code C51 and morphology codes compatible with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (n = 6294) were eligible. Incidence trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models, with calculation of the estimated annual percent change (EAPC), and age-period-cohort models.Total incidence showed a regular and significant decreasing trend (EAPC, -0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.43 to -0.48). This was entirely accounted for by women aged ≥60 years (EAPC, -1.34; 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.81). For younger women, the EAPC between 1990 and 2012 was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.34 to 2.06) with a non-significant acceleration thereafter. This pattern did not vary substantially in a sensitivity analysis for the effect of geographic area and duration of the registry. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed a risk decrease in cohorts born between 1905 and 1940 and a new increase in cohorts born since 1945.The decreasing trend observed among older women and the resulting decrease in total rate are at variance with reports from most Western countries. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a decreasing trend for earliest birth cohorts and an opposite one for recent ones.

Objective To discuss the results of the KETASER01 trial and the reasons for its failure, particularly in view of future studies. Methods KETASER01 is a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label, sequentially designed, non-profit Italian study that aimed to assess the efficacy of ketamine compared with conventional anesthetics in the treatment of refractory convulsive status epilepticus (RCSE) in children. Results During the 5-year recruitment phase, a total of 76 RCSEs treated with third-line therapy were observed in five of the 10 participating Centers; only 10 individuals (five for each study arm; five females, mean age 6.5 +/- 6.3 years) were enrolled in the KETASER01 study. Two of the five patients (40%) in the experimental arm were successfully treated with ketamine and two of the five (40%) children in the control arm, where successfully treated with thiopental. In the remaining six (60%) enrolled patients, RCSE was not controlled by the randomized anesthetic(s). Significance The KETASER01 study was prematurely halted due to low eligibility of patients and no successful recruitment. No conclusions can be drawn regarding the objectives of the study. Here, we discuss the KETASER01 results and critically analyze the reasons for its failure in view of future trials.

The methodology of health impact assessment (HIA), originally proposed by WHO, is widely used to predict the potential health effects in a community living in a place in which a new project (e.g., an industrial plant) will be implemented. One of the key quantities to calculate the impact (i.e., the number of attributable cases) is the baseline (i.e., before the project implementation) rate of selected diseases in the community. In a recent paper on this journal, this methodology has been challenged. Specifically, the use of baseline rate has been questioned, proposing to use only the fraction of the baseline rate due to the exposures related to the project, and not the rate due to all risk factors for the disease. In this commentary, we argue that the proposal is logically and epidemiologically unsound, and devoid of scientific motivation. The conclusion that the traditional approach overestimates the health impact should be rejected as based on flawed assumptions. On the contrary, the proposal may produce a (seriously biased) underestimation of attributable cases.

Numerous studies have been conducted worldwide to investigate if an association exists between meteorological factors and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection incidence. Although research studies provide conflicting results, which can be partially explained by different methods used, some clear trends emerge on the role of weather conditions and SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially for temperature and humidity. This study sheds more light on the relationship between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in 23 Italian and 52 Spanish cities. For the purposes of this study, daily air temperature, absolute and relative humidity, wind speed, ultraviolet radiation, and rainfall are considered exposure variables. We conducted a two-stage meta-regression. In the first stage, we estimated the exposure-response association through time series regression analysis at the municipal level. In the second stage, we pooled the association parameters using a meta-analytic model. The study demonstrates an association between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence. Specifically, low levels of ambient temperatures and absolute humidity were associated with an increased relative risk. On the other hand, low and high levels of relative humidity and ultraviolet radiation were associated with a decreased relative risk. Concerning wind speed and rainfall, higher values contributed to the reduction of the risk of infection. Overall, our results contribute to a better understanding of how the meteorological factors influence the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 and should be considered in a wider context of existing robust literature that highlight the importance of measures such as social distancing, improved hygiene, face masks and vaccination campaign., Aurelio Tobias was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S).

Background: Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a rare neurodegenerative disease caused by prions that is randomly distributed in all countries, with an overall yearly mortality rate of about 1–2 cases per million people. On a few occasions, however, sporadic CJD occurred with higher than expected rates, but further investigations failed to recognize any convincing causal link. In Italy, cluster analyses of sporadic CJD cases have not been performed previously. Objective: To investigate the geographical distribution of sporadic CJD using municipality geographical data of Apulia with the aim of detecting spatial clusters of disease. Patients and Methods: Patients included in this study were diagnosed as probable or definite sporadic CJD and were residents of the Apulia Region (Italy). Bayesian hierarchical models with spatially structured and unstructured random components were used to describe the spatial pattern of the disease and to assess the extent of heterogeneity among municipalities. The Kulldorff-Nagarwalla scan test and the flexible spatial scan statistic were used for detecting spatial clusters. Results: Smoothed Bayesian relative risks above the null value were observed in a few adjacent municipalities in the north and middle areas of Apulia. However, both the circular scanning method and the flexible spatial scan statistic identified only a single cluster in the central part of the region. Conclusion: Geographical analyses and tests for spatial randomness identified a restricted area with an unusually high number of sporadic CJD cases in the Apulia region of Italy. Environmental and genetic risk factors other than mutations in the prion protein gene however, need to be investigated.

Currently, there are more and more requests for a characterization of the health profile by populations living in areas affected by several types of environmental contaminations, notably for the presence of previously unknown and accidentally discovered landfills. The aim of the present paper is to describe the mortality profile of the residents of Piazzola sul Brenta (Veneto Region, Northern Italy). In this area, it was discovered an environmental contamination of the soil in the nearby of a large school building, where was formerly located a phosphate fertiliser plant. Using cause of death data provided by the Italian National Institute of Health, 10th International Classification 2013-2018, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 90% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by gender and specific causes of death. Compared to the provincial reference population, no excess was found, for both genders, for all-causes mortality and for circulatory diseases. However, an excess for malignant tumours was found, 523 observed deaths over 498 expected deaths, an SMR of 105 (IC90% 98-113), and 85% probability of excess cancer mortality; lung cancer (SMR 117; IC90% 100-135) and lympho-hematopoietic tumours (in men only, SMR 134; IC90% 101-178).In light of these results and of the potential human exposure to carcinogenic substances, present results support further epidemiological investigations and environmental remediation.

The long-term increase in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is generally attributed to the decreasing trend in tumour thickness, the single most important prognostic factor.To determine the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from CMM in Italy.Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided records for people with primary CMM registered between 2003 and 2017. Age-standardized 5-year net survival was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year net survival was undertaken by calculating the relative excess risk (RER) of death. The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER of death was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors.Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year net survival and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among male patients, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among female patients, respectively. The 5-year net survival was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% in male patients, and 91.4%, 92.0% and 93.4% in female patients, respectively. In 2013-2017, male patients exhibited the same survival as female patients despite having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness in the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 vs. 2003-2007 increase from 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.80] to 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86). This indicates that the thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For female patients, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.66-1.02) in 2013-2017.For male patients in particular, decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a small part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining improvement.

Vinyl-chloride monomer (VCM) is classified as a known carcinogen of the liver; for lung cancer, some results suggest a potential association with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) dust. We evaluated the relationship between lung cancer mortality and exposure as PVC baggers in a cohort of workers involved in VCM production and polymerization in Porto Marghera (Venice, Italy) considering both employment status and smoking habits. The workers were studied between 1973 and 2017. A subset of them (848 over 1658) was interviewed in the 2000s to collect information about smoking habits and alcohol consumption. Missing values were imputed by the Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using regional reference rates by task (never, ever, and exclusively baggers) and by smoking habits. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for age, calendar time, time since first exposure, and smoking habits, were obtained via Poisson regression using Rubin’s rule to combine results from imputed datasets calculating the fraction of information due to non-response. Lung cancer mortality was lower than the regional reference in the whole cohort (lung cancer SMR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.75–1.11). PVC baggers showed a 50% increase in lung cancer mortality compared to regional rates (SMR = 1.48; 95% CI 0.82–2.68). In the cohort analyses, a doubled risk of lung cancer mortality among PVC baggers was confirmed after adjustment for smoking and time-dependent covariates (MRR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.04–3.81). Exposure to PVC dust resulting from activity as bagger in a polymerization PVC plant was associated with an increase in lung cancer mortality risk after adjustment for smoking habits.

Maternal exposure to air pollutants has been associated with pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes. Endothelial dysfunction, an imbalance in vascular function, during pregnancy is considered a key element in the development of pre-eclampsia. Environmental exposure to particulate matter (PM) during the first trimester of pregnancy might increase maternal inflammatory status thus affecting fetal growth, possibly leading to preterm delivery.The purpose of the study was to evaluate possible effects of PM295 pregnant women were recruited. Individual PM exposure was assigned to each subject by calculating the mean of PMFor long-term exposure, we observed an increase in sVCAM-1 and a decrease of PAI-1 levels for each 10 μg/mThe present study showed that both long- and short-term exposures to PM are associated with changes in circulating levels of biomarkers in pregnant women reflecting systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction/activation. Our findings support the hypothesis that inflammation and endothelial dysfunction might have a central role in modulating the detrimental effects of air pollution exposure during pregnancy.

Politics is facing the need to make important decisions about anti-COVID-19 vaccination campaign in uncertain and changing contexts. With reference to the time frame between the administration of the first and second dose, the scientific evidence is still weak and comes from different contexts. New ways to collect and synthesize expert knowledge and opinions are needed with the direct involvement of the citizens in order to explain the uncertainties and maintain trust in institutions and their decisions.

Background: Diagnosis of endometriosis and evaluation of incidence data are complex tasks because the disease is identified laparoscopically and confirmed histologically. Incidence estimates reported in literature are widely inconsistent, presumably reflecting geographical variability of risk and the difficulty of obtaining reliable data. Methods: We retrieved incident cases of endometriosis in women aged 15–50 years using hospital discharge records and pathology databases of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region in the calendar period 2004–2017. We studied the spatial pattern of endometriosis incidence applying Bayesian approaches to Disease Mapping, and profiled municipalities at higher risk controlling for multiple comparisons using both q-values and a fully Bayesian approach. Results: 4125 new cases of endometriosis were identified in the age range 15 to 50 years in the period 2004–2017. The incidence rate (x100 000) is 111 (95% CI 110–112), with a maximum of 160 in the age group 31–35 years. The geographical distribution of endometriosis incidence showed a very strong north-south spatial gradient. We consistently identified a group of five neighboring municipalities at higher risk (RR 1.31 95% CI 1.13, 1.52), even accounting for ascertainment bias. Conclusions: The cluster of 5 municipalities in the industrialized and polluted south-east part of the region is suggestive. However, due to the ecologic nature of the present study, information on the patients’ characteristics and exposure histories are limited. Individual studies, including biomonitoring, and life-course studies are necessary to better evaluate our findings.

to examine the factors that, in the context of the current pandemic, have influenced the conduct of a randomized clinical trial on hydroxychloroquine in Italy.the trend of enrolment in the PROTECT study, "A randomized study with Hydroxychloroquine versus observational support for prevention or early phase treatment of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)" (Eudract number: 2020-001501-24, NCT04363827), conducted in the period from May to September 2020, was analysed to evaluate the possible association of the enrolment rate with the amount of information published in the national and local press on hydroxychloroquine.the PROTECT clinical study is an Italian interventional superiority study, open label, with cluster randomization, aimed at evaluating whether treatment with hydroxychloroquine can reduce the percentage of symptomatic subjects compared to observation only in a population of subjects exposed to SARS-CoV-2 virus consisting of cohabitants/contacts of COVID-19 patients and asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic subjects diagnosed with COVID-19.the number of asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic COVID-19 patients and the number of contacts/cohabitants of COVID-19 patients enrolled in the Protect study from May to September 2020.from May to September 2020, the number of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 enrolled in the PROTECT clinical trial showed a decrease consistent with the number of news on hydroxychloroquine appearing in the national and local press, starting from the time when the first criticisms of the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine were made known; the number of contacts/cohabitants of COVID-19 patients showed a more marked and more timely decrease.in the context determined by the current COVID-19 pandemic, conducting a controlled clinical trial is strongly influenced by public opinion on scientific issues. Adherence to a clinical study can become highly problematic and invalidate the possibility of answering a scientific question and the validity of a project. In the current pandemic situation, randomized controlled trials may not always be the optimal tool to reach the expected scientific evidence, due to a number of problems. It is preferable to use a sequential or adaptive design. Furthermore, study protocols should implement innovative approaches that also include the involvement of participants in the decision-making process. In any case, the influence of public information on scientific issues is an extremely important factor to consider in the design of clinical trials in exceptional situations such as a pandemic.

Background: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is interest in assessing if per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposures are associated with any increased risk of COVID-19 or its severity, given the evidence of immunosuppression by some PFAS. The objective of this paper is to evaluate at the ecological level if a large area (Red Zone) of the Veneto Region, where residents were exposed for decades to drinking water contaminated by PFAS, showed higher mortality for COVID-19 than the rest of the region. Methods: We fitted a Bayesian ecological regression model with spatially and not spatially structured random components on COVID-19 mortality at the municipality level (period between 21 February and 15 April 2020). The model included education score, background all-cause mortality (for the years 2015–2019), and an indicator for the Red Zone. The two random components are intended to adjust for potential hidden confounders. Results: The COVID-19 crude mortality rate ratio for the Red Zone was 1.55 (90% Confidence Interval 1.25, 1.92). From the Bayesian ecological regression model adjusted for education level and baseline all-cause mortality, the rate ratio for the Red Zone was 1.60 (90% Credibility Interval 0.94, 2.51). Conclusion: In conclusion, we observed a higher mortality risk for COVID-19 in a population heavily exposed to PFAS, which was possibly explained by PFAS immunosuppression, bioaccumulation in lung tissue, or pre-existing disease being related to PFAS.

since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of developing a serological test has emerged and a debate on test accuracy and reliability become an issue widely discussed in the media. The importance of communication during this pandemic has been strongly underlined by public health experts, epidemiologists, media expert, psychologists, sociologists. In the case of serological tests, there are several aspects that have to be considered: why we perform the test, what population is tested, which are the parameters conditioning the results and their interpretation.to show how to quantify the uncertainty related to the validity of the serological test with respect to its predictive value and in particular the positive predictive value.the evaluation of a qualitative diagnostic test includes four distinct assessments: accuracy, empirical evidence, practical importance, and prevalence of the pathology. Accuracy is measured by the sensitivity and specificity of the test; empirical evidence is quantified by the likelihood ratio, respectively for a positive and negative test result; the practical importance of the result of a diagnostic test is assessed by the positive or negative predictive value. Prevalence of COVID-19 is substantial uncertainty and it is possible to estimate the apparent prevalence starting from the results obtained with a diagnostic test.at the moment, the knowledge about the accuracy of serological tests is limited and little attention is paid to confidence interval on point estimates. In terms of practical importance of testing at individual level, while negative predictive values are high whatever the level of sensitivity of the test, the interpretation of a positive results is very cumbersome. Positive predictive values above 90% can be reached only by tests with specificity above 99% at the expected prevalence rate of 5%. There is a linear relationship between apparent - testing positive - prevalence and real prevalence. The apparent prevalence in the context of serological test for COVID-19 is always larger than real prevalence. The level of specificity is crucial.the main applications of the serological test in the epidemic contest are: to study the seroprevalence of the virus antibodies in the general population; to screen the healthcare workers for the early identification of contagious subjects' health care settings and to screen the general population in order to identify new incident cases. In the first two cases, seroprevalence study and screening of a high-risk population, the consequences of the uncertainty associated to the statistics are already accounted for in the first situation, or are overcome by repeating the screening on the healthcare workers, and using the molecular test to verify the presence of the virus in those tested positive. The case of screening of general population is more complex and of major interest for the implication it may have on individual behaviours and on the implementation of public health interventions by the political decision makers. A positive result has, per se, no practical value for individuals since the probability of being really infected by the virus is low. The uncertainty associated with the different estimates (sensitivity, specificity and disease prevalence) play a double role: it is a key factor in defining the informative content of the test result and it might guide the individual actions and the public policy decisions.

the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in WHO European Region was reported at the end of January 2020 and, from that moment, the epidemic has been speeding up and rapidly spreading across Europe. The health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic are difficult to evaluate, since there are many scientific uncertainties and unknowns.the main focus of this paper is on statistical methods for profiling municipalities by excess mortality, directly or indirectly caused by COVID-19.the use of excess mortality for all causes has been advocated as a measure of impact less vulnerable to biases. In this paper, observed mortality for all causes at municipality level in Italy in the period January-April 2020 was compared to the mortality observed in the corresponding period in the previous 5 years (2015-2019). Mortality data were made available by the Ministry of Internal Affairs Italian National Resident Population Demographic Archive and the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat). For each municipality, the posterior predictive distribution under a hierarchical null model was obtained. From the posterior predictive distribution, we obtained excess death counts, attributable community rates and q-values. Full Bayesian models implemented via MCMC simulations were used.absolute number of excess deaths highlights the burden paid by major cities to the pandemic. The Attributable Community Rate provides a detailed picture of the spread of the pandemic among the municipalities of Lombardy, Piedmont, and Emilia-Romagna Regions. Using Q-values, it is clearly recognizable evidence of an excess of mortality from late February to April 2020 in a very geographically scattered number of municipalities. A trade-off between false discoveries and false non-discoveries shows the different values of public health actions.despite the variety of approaches to calculate excess mortality, this study provides an original methodological approach to profile municipalities with excess deaths accounting for spatial and temporal uncertainty.

In a wide area among the provinces of Vicenza, Verona, and Padua (Veneto Region, Northern Italy), one of the larger known massive contamination of the environment by per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) occurred since the year 1965. The most important source of human exposure was through aquiferous and contaminated water supplies (the regional authorities distinguished red zone A - aquiferous - and red zone B - water supply) for a total of slightly less than two hundred thousand exposed people. Food contamination and food contribution to total human exposure were assessed by a food monitoring campaign on the years 2016-2017 by the National Health Institute sponsored by Veneto Region.Thanks to the availability of the individual records of the monitoring campaign, we evaluated the spatial distribution of PFAS contamination by food matrix. Generally speaking, PFAS contamination was widespread over the entire red zone (either A or B). Some zones appeared to be higher contaminated consistently with the water plume. Other higher contaminated zones were less consistent and such result raises questions about routes of environmental pollution.

Randomization procedure in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) permits an unbiased estimation of causal effects. However, in clinical practice, differential compliance between arms may cause a strong violation of randomization balance and biased treatment effect among those who comply. We evaluated the effect of the consolidation phase on disease-free survival of patients with multiple myeloma in an RCT designed for another purpose, adjusting for potential selection bias due to different compliance to previous treatment phases. We computed two propensity scores (PS) to model two different selection processes: the first to undergo autologous stem cell transplantation, the second to begin consolidation therapy. Combined stabilized inverse probability treatment weights were then introduced in the Cox model to estimate the causal effect of consolidation therapy miming an ad hoc RCT protocol. We found that the effect of consolidation therapy was restricted to the first 18 months of the phase (HR: 0.40, robust 95 % CI: 0.17-0.96), after which it disappeared. PS-based methods could be a complementary approach within an RCT context to evaluate the effect of the last phase of a complex therapeutic strategy, adjusting for potential selection bias caused by different compliance to the previous phases of the therapeutic scheme, in order to simulate an ad hoc randomization procedure. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01134484 May 28, 2010 (retrospectively registered) EudraCT: 2005-003723-39 December 17, 2008 (retrospectively registered)

To determine the acute effects on respiratory function of children exposed to sulphur dioxide (SO2), we conducted two population-based longitudinal investigations near a major oil refinery. We enrolled 233 children, age 8–14, in Sarroch (Italy). The first study entailed five monthly spirometric visits (Panel 5). In a subgroup, children positive for history of respiratory symptoms were tested weekly (20 times) with spirometry and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measurement (Panel 20). Baseline questionnaires and daily diaries were recorded. SO2, NO2, PM10 and O3 were measured by monitoring stations. Multiple regression models were fitted. Using a multipollutant model, we found that a 10 µg/m3 SO2 increase at lag0–2 days determined a percent variation (PV) of −3.37 (90% confidence interval, CI: −5.39, −1.30) for forced expiratory volume after one second (FEV1) in Panel 5 and a PV = −3.51 (90% CI: −4.77, −2.23) in Panel 20. We found a strong dose-response relation: 1-h SO2 peaks &gt, 200 µg/m3 at lag2 days = FEV1 PV −2.49. For FeNO, we found a PV = 38.12 (90% CI: 12.88, 69.01) for each 10 µg/m3 SO2 increase at 8-h time lag and a strong dose-response relation. Exposure to SO2 is strongly associated with reduction of lung function and an increase in airway inflammation. This new evidence of harmful effects of SO2 peaks should induce regulatory intervention.

Objectives Hydroxychloroquine has shown to have antiviral activity in vitro against coronaviruses, specifically SARS-CoV-2. It is believed to block virus infection by increasing endosomal pH required for virus cell fusion and glycosylation of viral surface proteins. In addition to its antiviral activity, hydroxychloroquine has an immune-modulating activity that may synergistically enhance its antiviral effect in vivo, making it a potentially promising drug for the prevention and the cure of SARS-CoV-19. However, randomized controlled trials are needed to assess whether it can be used safely to treat COVID-19 patients or to prevent infection. The main objective of the present study is to evaluate the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine for (I) the prevention of COVID-19 or related symptoms in SARS-CoV-2-exposed subjects, such as as household members/contacts of COVID-19 patients and (II) the treatment of early-phase asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic COVID-19 patients. Trial design This is a controlled, open label, cluster-randomized, superiority trial with parallel group design. Subjects will be randomized either to receive hydroxychloroquine or to observation (2:1). Participants SARS-CoV-2-exposed subjects, including household members and/or contacts of COVID-19 patients and healthcare professionals (Group 1) or patients with COVID-19 (positive PCR test on a rhinopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2), asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic in home situations who are not undergoing treatment with any anti COVID-19 medication (Group 2), will be enrolled. Paucisymptomatic patients are defined as patients with a low number of mild symptoms. All subjects must be aged ≥18 years, male or female, must be willing and able to give informed consent and must not have any contraindications to take hydroxychloroquine (intolerance or previous toxicity for hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, bradycardia or reduction in heart rhythm with arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, congestive heart failure with use of diuretics, favism or glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, diabetes type 1, major comorbidities such as advanced chronic kidney disease or dialysis therapy, known history of ventricular arrhythmia, any oncologic/hematologic malignancy, severe neurological and mental illness, current use of medications with known significant drug-drug interactions, and known prolonged QT syndrome or current use of drugs with known QT prolongation). The study is monocentric and will be conducted at Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori (IRST) IRCCS. Subjects will be enrolled from a large epidemic region (North-Central Italy). The Public Health Departments of several Italian regions will collaborate by identifying potentially eligible subjects. Intervention and comparator The participants will be randomized (2:1 randomization) to receive either hydroxychloroquine (Arm A) or to Observation (Arm B). Hydroxychloroquine will be administered with the following schedule: Group1: A loading dose hydroxychloroquine 400 mg twice daily on day 1, followed by a weekly dose of hydroxychloroquine 200 mg twice daily on days 8, 15 and 22, for a total of one month of treatment. Group 2: A loading dose hydroxychloroquine 400 mg twice daily on day 1 followed by 200 mg twice daily for a total of 5-7 days. The comparator in this trial is observation given that currently neither treatment is administered to asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic subjects, nor prophylaxis is available for contacts. Hydroxychloroquine will be shipped to subjects within 24 hours of randomization. Given the extraordinary nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, only telephonic interviews will be carried out and electronic Patient Reported Outcomes (ePRO) completed. During treatment, each subject will be contacted every other day for the first week and weekly thereafter (Group 2) or weekly (Group 1) by a study physician to assess early onset of any COVID-19 symptom or any adverse reaction to hydroxychloroquine and to check subject compliance. Furthermore, all subjects will receive periodic ePROs which may be completed through smartphone or tablets to record drug self-administration and onset of any symptom or adverse event. All subjects will be followed up for a total of 6 months by periodic telephonic interviews and ePROs. Main outcomes The primary endpoint/outcome measure for this trial is: for Group 1, the proportion of subjects who become symptomatic and/or swab-positive in each arm within one month of randomization; for Group 2, the proportion of subjects who become swab-negative in each arm within 14 days of randomization. Randomization All household members and/or contacts of each COVID-19 index case, and the COVID-19 patient himself/herself, fulfilling all inclusion criteria will be grouped into a single cluster and this cluster will be randomized (2:1) to either arm A or arm B. Information on each subject will be recorded in specific data records. Randomization lists will be stratified according to the following factors regarding COVID-19 index cases: 1. COVID-19 risk level on the basis of province of residence (high vs. low/intermediate); 2. Index case is a healthcare professional (yes vs.no) 3. Index case with COVID-19 treatment (yes vs. no) An independent statistician not otherwise involved in the trial will generate the allocation sequence, and COVID-19 response teams will be unaware of the allocation of clusters. Randomization will be performed through an interactive web-based electronic data-capturing database. An Independent Data Monitoring Committee has been established. Blinding (masking) This study is open label. Numbers to be randomized (sample size) For Group 1, a sample size of about 2000 SARS-CoV-2-exposed subjects such as household members and/or contacts of COVID-19 patients will take part in the study. Assuming around 1.5-2.0 asymptomatic household members and/or contacts for each COVID-19 patient, we expect to identify approximately 1000-1300 COVID-19 index cases to be randomized. An interim analysis on efficacy is planned using standard alpha-spending function. For Group 2, sufficient power for primary objective (negative swab within 14 days of randomization) will be reached given a sample size of 300 asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic COVID-19 subjects in home situations not treated for COVID-19 (25%-30% of about 1000-1300 expected index cases). Since up to date reduced evidence about COVID-19 infection epidemiology, the continuous update of diagnostic and therapeutic approaches, the sample size estimation could be updated after a one third of population will be recruited and eventually modified according to a substantial protocol amendment. An interim analysis at 100 enrolled COVID-19 patients is planned. We have planned a Generalized Estimating Equation analysis, which is more efficient than a cluster level analysis, to take advantage of subject-specific covariates. The above reported sample size analysis is therefore to be considered conservative. Trial Status The current version of the PROTECT trial protocol is ‘Final version, 15 April 2020’. The study started on 9th May 2020. The first patient was enrolled on 14th May 2020. Recruitment is expected to last through September 2020. Trial registration The PROTECT trial is registered in the EudraCT database (no. 2020-001501-24) and in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04363827), date of registration 24 April 2020. Full protocol The full PROTECT protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interests of expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol (Protocol final version, 15th April 2020). The study protocol has been reported in accordance with Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Clinical Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) guidelines (Additional file 2).

In low- and middle-income countries, catastrophic health expenditures and economic hardship constitute a common risk for households’ welfare. Community health financing (CHF) represents a viable option to improve financial protection, but robust impact evaluations are needed to advance the debate concerning universal health coverage in informal settings. This study aims at assessing the impact of a CHF pilot programme and, specifically, of the initial phase involving zero-interest loans on health expenditures and coping strategies in a rural district of Uganda. The analysis relies on a panel household survey performed before and after the intervention and complemented by qualitative data obtained from structured focus group discussions. Exploiting an instrumental variable approach, we measured the causal effect of the intervention, and the main findings were then integrated with qualitative evidence on the heterogeneity of the programme’s impact across different household categories. We found that the intervention of zero-interest healthcare loans is effective in improving financial protection and longer-term welfare. Community perceptions suggested that the population excluded from the scheme is disadvantaged when facing unpredictable health costs. Among the enrolled members, the poorest seem to receive a greater benefit from the intervention. Overall, our study provides support for the positive role of community-based mechanisms to progress towards universal coverage and offers policy-relevant insights to timely design comprehensive health financing reforms.

In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

Despite a 15-year long effort to define the “safety” of fish intake during pregnancy, there remains still uncertainty on this important public health issue. The evaluation of the toxic effects of contaminants, particularly mercury (Hg) in fish-eating populations is complicated by the fact that sea-food is also rich in beneficial nutrients, such as selenium (Se). There is toxicological plausibility of an antagonistic effects between Se and Hg, and some theoretical support for the inclusion of the Se–Hg interaction to better assess the risk linked with fish intake. To assess the effects of exposure to low-level Hg through fish consumption on the developing brain and the interaction between Hg and Se, we conducted an analysis at age 40 months in Italian children, enrolled in a prospective mother-child cohort, comparing additive and multiplicative models. Participant subjects were the 470 children born within the Northern Adriatic Cohort II (NAC-II) cohort who were tested by using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development third edition (Bayley-III) (BSID-III) at age 40. Family demographic and socioeconomic information, pregnancy and delivery history, parental and child medical history and food consumption were assessed through questionnaires. Maternal blood samples were collected during pregnancy, cord blood at birth and maternal milk 1 month after delivery. As other exposures of interest, we considered the level of Se in maternal and cord blood and in breast milk and the potential Se–Hg antagonism. Se and inverse of THg (1:THg) concentrations were categorized according to the tertiles of their distributions, in low, medium and high levels of exposure. The lower end of the composite cognitive score distribution closest to 20% was defined as suboptimal development. Multiple logistic regression were applied to assess the association between the dichotomized composite cognitive score and the categorized exposure to Se and 1:THg, and the antagonism between Se and 1:THg. In the recruiting period, 900 pregnant women were enrolled in the cohort; 767 of these remained in the study at delivery and 470 children at 40 months. After excluding preterm births, 456 children were used in the final analyses. The larger difference in risk for suboptimal neurodevelopment was observed for the category with High THg and Low Se with OR = 2.55 (90% CI 1.02; 6.41) under the multiplicative and OR = 1.33 (90% CI 0.80; 1.87) under the additive model. The category High THg and High Se showed a very slightly better fit of the additive model (OR = 1.07, 90% CI 0.65; 1.50) versus the multiplicative (OR = 1.66, 90% CI 0.73; 1.77). A negative – antagonistic – interaction term for this category was estimated under the multiplicative model giving an OR = 1.17 (90% CI 0.42; 3.28). Although this evidence of the effects of the Se–Hg antagonism on the children neuro-development needs to be confirmed, if Se can counterbalance Hg toxicity, the evaluation of the effect on human health of fish consumption, should also consider the diverse ratios between Se and Hg concentration in different fish species.

In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

Community health insurance (CHI) aims to provide financial protection and facilitate health care access among poor rural populations. Given common operational challenges that hamper the full development of the scheme, there is need to undertake systematic feasibility studies. These are scarce in the literature and usually they do not provide a comprehensive analysis of the local context. The present research intends to adopt a mixed-methods approach to assess ex-ante the feasibility of CHI. In particular, eight preconditions are proposed to inform the viability of introducing the micro insurance. A case study located in rural northern Uganda is presented to test the effectiveness of the mixed-methods procedure for the feasibility purpose. A household survey covering 180 households, 8 structured focus group discussions, and 40 key informant interviews were performed between October and December 2016 in order to provide a complete and integrated analysis of the feasibility preconditions. Through the data collected at the household level, the population health seeking behaviours and the potential insurance design were examined; econometric analyses were carried out to investigate the perception of health as a priority need and the willingness to pay for the scheme. The latter component, in particular, was analysed through a contingent valuation method. The results validated the relevant feasibility preconditions. Econometric estimates demonstrated that awareness of catastrophic health expenditures and the distance to the hospital play a critical influence on household priorities and willingness to pay. Willingness is also significantly affected by socio-economic status and basic knowledge of insurance principles. Overall, the mixed-methods investigation showed that a comprehensive feasibility analysis can shape a viable CHI model to be implemented in the local context.

BackgroundFew studies, based on a limited number of patients using non-uniform therapeutic protocols, have analyzed Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) eradication.MethodsIn a randomized multicenter trial conducted on patients with new-onset MRSA infection we evaluated the efficacy of an early eradication treatment (arm A) compared with an observational group (B). Arm A received oral rifampicin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (21 days). Patients' microbiological status, FEV1, BMI, pulmonary exacerbations and use of antibiotics were assessed.ResultsSixty-one patients were randomized. Twenty-nine (47.5%) patients were assigned to active arm A and 32 (52.5%) patients to observational arm B. Twenty-nine (47.5%) patients, 10 patients in arm A and 19 in arm B, dropped out of the study. At 6 months MRSA was eradicated in 12 (63.2%) out of 19 patients in arm A while spontaneous clearance was observed in 5 (38.5%) out of 13 patients in arm B. A per-protocol analysis showed a 24.7% difference in the proportion of MRSA clearance between the two groups (z = 1.37, P(Z>z) = 0.08). Twenty-seven patients, 15 (78.9%) out of 19 in arm A and 12 (92.3%) out of 13 in arm B, were able to perform spirometry. The mean (±SD) FEV1 change from baseline was 7.13% (±14.92) in arm A and -1.16% (±5.25) in arm B (p = 0.08). In the same period the BMI change (mean ±SD) from baseline was 0.54 (±1.33) kg/m2 in arm A and -0.38 (±1.56) kg/m2 in arm B (p = 0.08). At 6 months no statistically significant differences regarding the number of pulmonary exacerbations, days spent in hospital and use of antibiotics were observed between the two arms.ConclusionsAlthough the statistical power of the study is limited, we found a 24.7% higher clearance of MRSA in the active arm than in the observational arm at 6 months. Patients in the active arm A also had favorable FEV1 and BMI tendencies.

Purpose The Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS) is a system of integrated data on health outcomes, demographic and socioeconomic information, and represents a powerful tool to study health inequalities. Participants IN-LiMeS is a multicentre and multipurpose pool of metropolitan population cohorts enrolled in nine Italian cities: Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Florence, Leghorn, Prato and Rome. Data come from record linkage of municipal population registries, the 2001 population census, mortality registers and hospital discharge archives. Depending on the source of enrolment, cohorts can be closed or open. The census-based closed cohort design includes subjects resident in any of the nine cities at the 2001 census day; 4 466 655 individuals were enrolled in 2001 in the nine closed cohorts. The open cohort design includes subjects resident in 2001 or subsequently registered by birth or immigration until the latest available follow-up (currently 31 December 2013). The open cohort design is available for Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Prato and Rome. Detailed socioeconomic data are available for subjects enrolled in the census-based cohorts; information on demographic characteristics, education and citizenship is available from population registries. Findings to date The first IN-LiMeS application was the study of differentials in mortality between immigrants and Italians. Either using a closed cohort design (nine cities) or an open one (Turin and Reggio Emilia), individuals from high migration pressure countries generally showed a lower mortality risk. However, a certain heterogeneity between the nine cities was noted, especially among men, and an excess mortality risk was reported for some macroareas of origin and specific causes of death. Future plans We are currently working on the linkage of the 2011 population census data, the expansion of geographical coverage and the implementation of the open design in all the participating cohorts.

Introduction Exposure to particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM10) entails well documented adverse effects on human health. In the last decade, concentration of PM10 in Lombardy (10 million inhabitants), Italy, has been gradually decreasing. We evaluated how the mortality burden due to PM10 varied in that same period. Methods We focused on 13 areas of the Region in 2003–2014: 11 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, 1 smaller alpine town and 1 agricultural province. For each area, we collected PM10 annual average concentrations and natural mortality data, and we used the posterior area-specific effects from a previous Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the short-term impact of PM10 on mortality, in terms of deaths attributable (AD) to annual average exposures exceeding the WHO threshold of 20 μg/m3. Results PM10 annual average values showed a non-homogenous decreasing trend in the investigated time period in most of the areas. Overall, the population-weighted exposure levels decreased, except for a peak in 2011, but never met the WHO threshold. In 2003–2006, PM10 levels were responsible, on average, for 343.0 annual AD from natural causes that decreased to 253.5 in 2007–2010 and to 208.3 in 2011–2014. Overall we estimated that PM10 was responsible for about 1% of all natural deaths (min-max range: 0.86%–1.42%); the impact was heterogeneous among areas. Conclusions By collecting routinely available data for the most populated areas in Lombardy, we returned a picture of air pollution and health trends in the last decade. Notwithstanding the observed reduction in PM10 between 2003 and 2014 and the resulting decline in the number of AD, the impact is still relevant. Hence, appropriate policies for emission reduction could have a further beneficial effect on population health. Studies based on routine data and local effect estimates are recommended to properly inform the policy-making process.

Background When communicating risks to the general population, the format of the epidemiological results may affect individual reactions. In environmental epidemiology, no study has compared the use of different statistical formats in communicating results to the population. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the degree of concern expressed by residents of a high environmental risk site, regarding epidemiological results on cancer mortality in the area where they live, is influenced by the statistical indicator used in communication. Methods A sample of residents in the high environmental risk area of Livorno (Italy) was randomized to respond to different questionnaires, in which the same epidemiological results were expressed by two alternative risk indexes: percent excess risk and time needed to harm, defined as the number of days that one has to wait for, on average, to observe 1 death in excess in respect to the baseline. Participants were asked to express their concern on a quantitative scale or to rank different diseases according to their impressions. The statistical analysis was performed using an Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting approach based on propensity score, in order to account for sample stratification and adjust for unbalance between groups occurring despite randomization. Results The probability of high concern levels was larger under time needed to harm than under percent excess, with a difference between proportions of 6.7% (95% Confidence Interval, 0.6,12.8%). Mortality from sexual glands cancer was ranked as more worrisome and mortality from thyroid gland cancer as less worrisome under time needed to harm than under percent excess. No rank change was found for lung cancer. Larger differences between the two indicators arose in subjects with higher education or better numerical skills. Conclusions Communicating epidemiological results to the population is not a neutral task. The degree of concern and judgments when comparing results on different diseases may depend on the risk indicators used. Translating scientific results into lay language should not exempt from careful evaluation of the impact of this translation on lay people. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7003-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Thirty-four geothermal power plants for the production of electricity are currently active in the geothermal areas in Tuscany. The present study aimed to investigate the association between short-term exposure to hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and acute health outcomes. This study used individual data on non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, urgent hospital admissions (HA) and emergency department (ED) visits for cardiorespiratory diseases occurring from 2000 to 2017. All cases were georeferenced and matched to daily H2S data, derived from 18 monitoring sites. A case-crossover design following the matched pair interval approach was applied and conditional logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios and their 90% confidence intervals, adjusting for a set of time-dependent variables, such as influenza epidemics, holidays and temperature. A total of 8054 deaths, 30,527 HA and 15,263 ED visits occurred. Mortality for non-accidental (OR = 1.11, 90% CI 1.02–1.22) and cardiovascular causes (OR = 1.22, 90% CI 1.03–1.44) were associated with an increase of 10 µg/m3 of H2S daily levels only among men. Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases were positively associated with H2S exposure: OR = 1.11 (90% CI 1.00–1.22) among women. No associations were observed in ED visits analyses. In this case-crossover study in the Tuscan geothermal areas, short-term exposure to H2S was weakly associated with some mortality and morbidity outcomes. Our findings did not show a clear pattern as the results were not homogeneous between mortality and morbidity data or between men and women.

Describing and monitoring socioeconomic inequalities in health are the prerequisite for planning equity policies. In Italy, some cities have integrated personal information from the municipal registries with Census data and with data from healthcare information systems to set up Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (LMS). Under the coordination of the Italian National Institute for Health, Migration, and Poverty (NIHMP), six cities in the LMS network have contributed to the present monograph: Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, and Rome. MORTALITY RESULTS. Significant socioeconomic differences by level of education were seen in all the participating centres. People who live alone or in single-parent households are more likely to die, as are those living in a substandard dwelling. Immigrants resident in the six cities included in the study showed lower all-cause mortality than Italians (males: MRR 0.83; 95%CI 0.78-0.90 - females: MRR 0.70; 95%CI 0.64-0.77). Sub-Saharan Africans experienced a significant higher mortality than Italians (males: MRR 1.33; 95%CI 1.12-1.59 - females: MMR 1.69; 95%CI 1.31-2.17). Immigrants had a neonatal and post-neonatal mortality risk about 1.5 times higher than Italians (neonatal: OR 1.71; 95%CI 1.22-2.39 - post-neonatal: OR 1.63; 95%CI 1.03-2.57). A difference between Italians and immigrants was also observed for mortality in children aged 1-4 years, though less marked (OR 1.24; 95%CI 0.73-2.11). Excesses concerned particularly immigrants from North Africa and from sub-Saharan Africa as well as those residing in Italy for5 years. HOSPITALISATION RESULTS. Hospitalisation rates are lower for immigrants than for Italians, except when due to infectious diseases, blood disorders, and, among women, for reasons linked to pregnancy and childbirth. Avoidable hospitalisation rates of adults from low migratory pressure Countries are lower than or equal to those of Italians. On the contrary, adults from low migratory pressure Countries show higher avoidable hospitalisation rates compared to Italians in every cohort, with the exception of Rome (RR 0.81; 95%CI 0.78-0.85), with RR ranging from 1.08 (95%CI 0.96-1.22) in Venice to 1.64 (95%CI 1.47-1.83) in Modena.Maternal and child health is the most critical area of health for immigrant population. Considering the importance that the issue of health equity has taken on in the political agenda, the data presented in this volume are a great asset, particularly in light of the long recession and the social crisis that have impacted the Country.

Background In 1976 in Manfredonia (Italy), arsenic was released into the atmosphere due to an accident in a petrochemical plant. We aimed to analyze the mortality of workers involved in the factory for the site cleaning activities. Methods The cohort consisted of 1467 workers grouped into contract, fertilizer, and plastic workers. The outcome of interest was mortality for specific causes. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were computed. Results For all workers and all causes of death combined, the SMR was less than 1.0. Mortality ratios were increased for malignant neoplasms of the pleura, bone and melanoma of the skin. Contract workers, the group mostly exposed to arsenic, showed statistically significant SMRs for several malignancies, in particular for lung cancer (SMR = 1.26; 95%CI: 1.05-1.54). Conclusions Overall, the results reported here on mortality among persons occupationally exposed to arsenic are consistent with the literature and biologically plausible.

The different and seemingly unrelated practices of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) used to collect and share personal and scientific data within networked communities, and the organized storage of human genetic samples and information-namely biobanking-have merged with another recent epistemic and social phenomenon, namely scientists and citizens collaborating as "peers" in creating knowledge (or peer-production of knowledge). These different dimensions can be found in joint initiatives where scientists-and-citizens use genetic information and ICT as powerful ways to gain more control over their health and the environment. While this kind of initiative usually takes place only after rights have been infringed (or are put at risk)-as the two cases presented in the paper show-collaborative scientists-and-citizens' knowledge should be institutionally allowed to complement and corroborate official knowledge-supporting policies.

Introduction Measuring and mapping the occurrence of malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a useful means to monitor the impact of past asbestos exposure and possibly identify previously unknown sources of asbestos exposure. Objective Our goal is to decompose the observed spatial pattern of incidence of MM in the Lombardy region (Italy) in gender-specific components linked to occupational exposure and a shared component linked to environmental exposure. Materials and methods We selected from the Lombardy Region Mesothelioma Registry (RML) all incident cases of MM (pleura, peritoneum, pericardium, and tunica vaginalis testis) with first diagnosis in the period 2000–2016. We mapped at municipality level crude incidence rates and smoothed rates using the Besag York and Mollie model separately for men and women. We then decomposed the spatial pattern of MM in gender-specific occupational components and a shared environmental component using a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian model. Results We globally analyzed 6226 MM cases, 4048 (2897 classified as occupational asbestos exposure at interview) in men and 2178 (780 classified as occupational asbestos exposure at interview) in women. The geographical analysis showed a strong spatial pattern in the distribution of incidence rates in both genders. The multivariate hierarchical Bayesian model decomposed the spatial pattern in occupational and environmental components and consistently identified some known occupational and environmental hot spots. Other areas at high risk for MM occurrence were highlighted, contributing to better characterize environmental exposures from industrial sources and suggesting a role of natural sources in the Alpine region. Conclusion The spatial pattern highlights areas at higher risk which are characterized by the presence of industrial sources - asbestos-cement, metallurgic, engineering, textile industries - and of natural sources in the Alpine region. The multivariate hierarchical Bayesian model was able to disentangle the geographical distribution of MM cases in two components interpreted as occupational and environmental.

Despite a rapid increase in immigration from low-income countries, studies on immigrants’ mortality in Italy are scarce. We aimed to describe differences in all and cause-specific mortality among immigrants and Italians residing in Turin and Reggio Emilia (Northern Italy), two cities participating in the Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS). We used individual data from the municipal population registers linked to the cause of death registers. All people aged 1–64 years residing between 2001 and 2010 were enrolled (open cohort) and followed up until 2013. The mortality of citizens from high migratory pressure countries (as a whole, and for each macro-area group) was compared with that of Italians; differences were estimated by Poisson regression adjusted by age and calendar year mortality rate ratios (MRRs), and by age-standardized mortality ratios for the analysis of cause-specific mortality. Compared with Italians, immigrants had lower overall mortality (MRR for men: 0.82, 95 % CI: 0.75–0.90; for women: 0.71, 95 % CI: 0.63–0.81). Sub-Saharan Africans experienced a significant higher mortality than Italians (MRR for men 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.03–1.61; for women: 1.70, 95 % CI: 1.22–2.36). Higher mortality for immigrants compared to Italians was observed for infectious diseases, congenital anomalies, some site-specific tumours and homicide mortality. Our study showed heterogeneity in mortality across the macro-areas of origin, and in particular Sub-Saharan Africans seemed to be a vulnerable population. The extension to other cohorts of IN-LiMeS will allow the health status of immigrants and vulnerable groups to be studied and monitored in more depth.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the relationship between air pollution and hospital admissions in 25 Italian cities that took part in the EpiAir (Epidemiological surveillance of air pollution effects among Italian cities) project. DESIGN: study of time series with case-crossover methodology, with adjustment for meteorological and time-dependent variables. The association air pollution hospitalisation was analyzed in each of the 25 cities involved in the study; the overall estimates of effect were obtained subsequently by means of a meta-analysis. The pollutants considered were PM10, PM2.5 (in 13 cities only), NO2 and ozone (O3); this last pollutant restricted to the summer season (April-September). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study has analyzed 2,246,448 urgent hospital admissions for non-accidental diseases in 25 Italian cities during the period 2006- 2010; 10 out of 25 cities took part also in the first phase of the project (2001-2005). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: urgent hospital admissions for cardiac, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases, for all age groups, were considered. The respiratory hospital admissions were analysed also for the 0-14-year subgroup. Percentage increases risk of hospitalization associated with increments of 10 µg/m(3) and interquartile range (IQR) of the concentration of each pollutant were calculated. RESULTS: reported results were related to an increment of 10 µg/m(3) of air pollutant. The percent increase for PM10 for cardiac causes was 0.34% at lag 0 (95%CI 0.04-0.63), for respiratory causes 0.75% at lag 0-5 (95%CI 0.25-1.25). For PM2.5, the percent increase for respiratory causes was 1.23% at lag 0- 5 (95%CI 0.58-1.88). For NO2, the percent increase for cardiac causes was 0.57% at lag 0 (95%CI 0.13-1.02); 1.29% at lag 0-5 (95%CI 0.52-2.06) for respiratory causes. Ozone (O3) did not turned out to be positively associated neither with cardiac nor with respiratory causes as noted in the previous period (2001-2005). CONCLUSION: the results of the study confirm an association between PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 on hospital admissions among 25 Italian cities. No positive associations for ozone was noted in this period.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to (i) describe mesothelioma incidence in the Italian national priority contaminated sites (NPCS) on the basis of data available from the Italian National Mesothelioma Registry (ReNaM) and (ii) profile NPCS using Bayesian rank analysis. METHODS: Incident cases of mesothelioma and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were estimated for both genders in each of the 39 selected NPCS in the period 2000–2011. Age-standardized rates of Italian geographical macro areas were used to estimate expected cases. Rankings of areas were produced by a hierarchical Bayesian model. Asbestos exposure modalities were discussed for each site. RESULTS: In the study period, 2683 incident cases of mesothelioma (1998 men, 685 women) were recorded. An excess of mesothelioma incidence was confirmed in sites with a known past history of direct use of asbestos (among men) such as Balangero (SIR 197.1, 95% CI 82.0–473.6), Casale Monferrato (SIR 910.7, 95% CI 816.5–1012.8), and Broni (SIR 1288.5, 95% CI 981.9–1691.0), in sites with shipyards and harbors (eg, Trieste, La Spezia, Venice, and Leghorn), and in settings without documented direct use of asbestos. The analysis ranked the sites of Broni and Casale Monferrato (both genders) and Biancavilla (only for women) the highest. CONCLUSIONS: The present study confirms that asbestos pollution is a risk for people living in polluted areas, due to not only occupational exposure in industrial settings with direct use of asbestos but also the presence of asbestos in the environment. Epidemiological surveillance of asbestos-related diseases is a fundamental tool for monitoring the health profile in NPCS.

Observational prospective population-based incidence study. The main objective of this study was to assess the incidence of traumatic spinal cord injuries (TSCIs) and incidence rates, in order to provide estimates by age, gender, characteristics and cause. This study was conducted at acute-care spinal cord injury (SCI) hospitals and SCI centers from 11 Italian regions, between 1 October 2013 and 30 September 2014. Data of all consecutive patients with acute TSCI who met the inclusion criteria were obtained through case reporting by clinicians. The data were collected into a web database. Incidence rates and incidence rate ratios were calculated and stratified by age, gender, cause, level and completeness. From 50% of the entire population of Italy, 445 new cases of TSCI were included. The crude incidence rate of TSCI was 14.7 cases per million per year (95% CI: 13.4–16.4); the overall male to female ratio was 4:1 and the mean age was 54. Complete information was available in 85% of the sample and revealed tetraplegia in 58% and incomplete lesion in 67% of cases. The leading cause of TSCI was falls (40.9%) followed by road traffic accidents (33.5%). The leading cause was falls for patients over 55 and road traffic accidents for patients under 55. The changing trend of TSCI epidemiology concerns the increase in the average age of TSCI people and the increase of both cervical and incomplete lesions. The etiology shows the primacy of falls over road traffic accidents and suggests the need for a change in prevention policies.

The objective of the study is to analyze the variation of adverse events (AEs) according to the different structure of hospitals. The study is a multicenter, retrospective study. It involves 4 teaching hospitals (THs) and 32 community hospitals, distributed in 12 local trusts (LTs), of the Tuscany Regional Healthcare Service (RHS). A random sample of the clinical records of patients admitted in LTs and THs in 2008 was selected from the database of the hospital discharge records of the centers. Among 11,293 clinical records included, a total of 354 adverse events were identified. There was a significant higher incidence of AEs in the male and elderly (>65 years) population, and the incidence of AEs was more relevant in the THs (5.3, 95% CI 4.7-6.1) than in the LTs (1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.2). AEs related to falls were significantly more preventable in THs (OR 19.22, 95% CI 2.45-151.02), while in LTs, AEs related to infections were the most preventable (OR 6.22, 95% CI 1.35-28.67). Concerning the consequence of AE, death is significantly more probable for AEs related to unexpected cardiac arrest in LTs, while disability and prolongation of the stay are significantly more probable consequences associated with re-admission in THs, and to transfer to ICU or HDU in LTs. Re-interventions, surgical complications and falls are the factors more correlated with AEs. In conclusion, the study shows a higher risk of incurring adverse events for the THs compared to the LTs, presumably connected with a major complexity of the clinical cases. Furthermore, the preventability of AEs is higher in the LTs (56.1 vs 42.2%), and this might be associated with lower expertise in managing complications in these settings. Concerning specialties, there are no significant differences in AEs distribution.

Aim: To show that an increased correlation between CpGs after selection through an epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) might translate into biased replication results. Methods: Pairwise correlation coefficients between CpGs selected in two published EWAS, the top hits replication, Bonferroni p-values, Benjamini–Hochberg (BH) false discovery rate (FDR) and directional FDR r-values were calculated in the NINFEA cohort data. Exposures’ random permutations were performed to show the empirical p-value distributions. Results: The average pairwise correlation coefficients between CpGs were enhanced after selection for the replication (e.g., from 0.12 at genome-wide level to 0.26 among the selected CpGs), affecting the empirical p-value distributions and the usual multiple testing control. Conclusion: Bonferroni and Benjamini–Hochberg FDR are inappropriate for the EWAS replication phase, and methods that account for the underlying correlation need to be used.

OBJECTIVE: We described a cohort of 100 children with a wide variety of airway obstruction who underwent stent positioning in the last 7 years. The study examined the outcomes of this treatment in the largest series of paediatric patients reported in the literature with special concern over safety and clinical effectiveness. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 100 consecutive paediatric patients who underwent stent insertions between January 2005 and May 2012. Statistical analysis was performed and exact likelihood was used. RESULTS: A total of 235 stents were placed for severe airway obstruction. One hundred and twelve silicone stents (cylinder, hourglass or Yshaped), 120 metallic stents (covered Nitinol stents, expandable coronary and vascular stents) and 3 biodegradable polydioxanone (PDS) stents were used. Eighty patients presented clinical improvement after stent insertion, 17 were weaned off mechanical ventilation and 3 showed no significant clinical improvement [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1–8.0%]. Complications were different according to stent type. In our cohort, no fatal stent-related complications have been observed. At follow-up (median 41.4 months, range 1.1–145.4) complete resolution was registered for 60 patients (66%; 95% CI 55–76%), 17 are still under treatment, 9 were lost to follow-up, 8 underwent surgery and 6 died of causes not stent related. CONCLUSION: Airway stenting represents a conservative treatment before more invasive surgical procedures and can be very effective when performed in selected children and in specialized centres by physicians experienced in rigid and flexible bronchoscopy.

Exposure to particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PMWe focused on 13 areas of the Region in 2003-2014: 11 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, 1 smaller alpine town and 1 agricultural province. For each area, we collected PMPMBy collecting routinely available data for the most populated areas in Lombardy, we returned a picture of air pollution and health trends in the last decade. Notwithstanding the observed reduction in PM

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is caused by mutations in sarcomeric proteins, but the pathogenic mechanism is unclear. Piroddi et al. find impairment of cross-bridge kinetics and energetics in human sarcomeres with a TNNT2 mutation, suggesting that HCM involves inefficient ATP utilization., Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetic form of left ventricular hypertrophy, primarily caused by mutations in sarcomere proteins. The cardiac remodeling that occurs as the disease develops can mask the pathogenic impact of the mutation. Here, to discriminate between mutation-induced and disease-related changes in myofilament function, we investigate the pathogenic mechanisms underlying HCM in a patient carrying a homozygous mutation (K280N) in the cardiac troponin T gene (TNNT2), which results in 100% mutant cardiac troponin T. We examine sarcomere mechanics and energetics in K280N-isolated myofibrils and demembranated muscle strips, before and after replacement of the endogenous troponin. We also compare these data to those of control preparations from donor hearts, aortic stenosis patients (LVHao), and HCM patients negative for sarcomeric protein mutations (HCMsmn). The rate constant of tension generation following maximal Ca2+ activation (kACT) and the rate constant of isometric relaxation (slow kREL) are markedly faster in K280N myofibrils than in all control groups. Simultaneous measurements of maximal isometric ATPase activity and Ca2+-activated tension in demembranated muscle strips also demonstrate that the energy cost of tension generation is higher in the K280N than in all controls. Replacement of mutant protein by exchange with wild-type troponin in the K280N preparations reduces kACT, slow kREL, and tension cost close to control values. In donor myofibrils and HCMsmn demembranated strips, replacement of endogenous troponin with troponin containing the K280N mutant increases kACT, slow kREL, and tension cost. The K280N TNNT2 mutation directly alters the apparent cross-bridge kinetics and impairs sarcomere energetics. This result supports the hypothesis that inefficient ATP utilization by myofilaments plays a central role in the pathogenesis of the disease.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have documented increased mortality during heat waves, little information is available on the subgroups most susceptible to these effects. We evaluated the effects of summertime high temperature on daily mortality among population subgroups defined by demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and episodes of hospitalization for various conditions during the preceding 2 years. METHODS: We studied a total of 205,019 residents of 4 Italian cities (Bologna, Milan, Rome, and Turin) age 35 or older who died during 1997-2003. The case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between mean apparent temperature (same and previous day) and all-cause mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dying at 30 degrees C (apparent temperature) relative to 20 degrees C were estimated accounting for time, population changes, and air pollution. RESULTS: We found an overall OR of 1.34 (CI = 1.27-1.42) at 30 degrees C relative to 20 degrees C. The odds ratio increased with age and was higher among women (OR = 1.45; 1.37-1.52) and among widows and widowers (1.50; 1.33-1.69). Low area-based income modestly increased the effect. Among the preexisting medical conditions investigated, effect modification was detected for previous psychiatric disorders (1.69; 1.39-2.07), depression (1.72; 1.24-2.39), heart conduction disorders (1.77; 1.38-2.27), and circulatory disorders of the brain (1.47; 1.34-1.62). Temperature-related mortality was higher among people residing in nursing homes, and a large effect was also detected for hospitalized subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Subsets of the population that are particularly vulnerable to high summer temperatures include the elderly, women, widows and widowers, those with selected medical conditions, and those staying in nursing homes and healthcare facilities. Language: en

this study aims at presenting the results from the Italian EpiaAir2 Project on the short-term effects of air pollution on adult population (35+ years old) in 25 Italian cities.the short-term effects of air pollution on resident people died in their city were analysed adopting the time series approach. The association between increases in 10µg/m(3) in PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 air concentration and natural, cardiac, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality was studied. City-specific Poisson models were fitted to estimate the association of daily concentrations of pollutants with daily counts of deaths. The analysis took into account temporal and meteorological factors to control for potential confounding effect. Pooled estimates have been derived from random effects meta-analysis, evaluating the presence of heterogeneity in the city specific results.it was analysed 422,723 deaths in the 25 cities of the project among people aged 35 years or more, resident in each city during the period 2006-2010.daily counts of natural, cardiac, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality, obtained from the registries of each city. Demographic information were obtained by record linkage procedure with the civil registry of each city.mean number of deaths for natural causes ranged from 513 in Rovigo to 20,959 in Rome. About 25\% of deaths are due to cardiac diseases, 10\% to cerebrovascular diseases, and 7\% to respiratory diseases. It was found an immediate effect of PM10 on natural mortality (0.51\%; 95\%CI 0.16-0.86; lag 0-1). More relevant and prolonged effects (lag 0-5) have been found for PM2.5 (0.78\%; 95\%CI 0.12-1.46) and NO2 (1.10\%; 95\%CI 0.63-1.58). Increases in cardiac mortality are associated with PM10 (0.93\%; 95\%CI 0.16-1.70) and PM2.5 (1.25\%; 95\%CI 0.17-2.34), while for respiratory mortality exposure to NO2 has an important role (1.67\%; 95\%CI 0.23-3.13; lag 2-5), as well as PM10 (1.41\%; 95\%CI - 0.23;+3.08). Results are strongly homogeneous among cities, except for respiratory mortality. No effect has been found for cerebrovascular mortality and weak evidence of association has been observed between ozone and mortality.a clear increase in mortality associated to air pollutants was observed. More important are the effects of NO2 (on natural mortality), mostly associated with traffic emissions, and of PM2.5 (on cardiac and respiratory mortality). Nitrogen dioxide shows an independent effect from the particulate matter, as observed in the bi-pollutant models.