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Background Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one). Methods Data on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitted exponential distribution for the year-by-year distribution of TF prevalence. The probability of a district being a transmission-hotspot is extrapolated from the residuals of the regression. Results Forecasts suggest that with current interventions, 96.5% of surveyed districts will have TF prevalence among children aged 1–9 years Conclusions Sustainable control of trachoma appears achievable. However there are transmission-hotspots that are not responding to annual mass drug administration of azithromycin and require enhanced treatment in order to reach local control.

Background In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect. Methods For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets. Findings We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding. Interpretation The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Significance The threat to public health that is presented by zoonotic spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs is predicted to increase with rapid anthropogenic changes and global trends such as migration and changing land use. Schistosomiasis currently infects more than 220 million people worldwide, and the multihost Schistosoma spp. system within Africa is a key example of where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled the formation of viable hybrid parasite genotypes. Our study demonstrates how zoonotic spillover and complex interactions between pathogen species, such as parasite hybridization, may have implications such as resilience to current disease control strategies and may facilitate the spread of tropical diseases such as schistosomiasis beyond their original geographical boundaries., Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritised. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies that increase the verage duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementContact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritised. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies that increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:noneAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll simulation code is available on github. No data other than simulated data was used.https://github.com/timcdlucas/ringbp/tree/adherence_tradeoff_runs

The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48–142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population. In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave. Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals., The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted neglected tropical disease programs. Modelling shows the impact of this will vary across diseases. Once interventions are reintroduced, there are opportunities for mitigating the delay and accelerating progress towards the 2030 goals.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Methods Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise. Results We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets. Conclusion Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.

Summary Background Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global medical and veterinary importance. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem and interrupt transmission gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridisation in sub-Saharan Africa have been largely overlooked. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, distribution, and multi-host, multiparasite transmission cycle of Haematobium group schistosomiasis in Senegal, West Africa. Methods In this epidemiological study, we carried out systematic surveys in definitive hosts (humans, cattle, sheep, and goats) and snail intermediate hosts, in 2016–18, in two areas of Northern Senegal: Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, where transmission is perennial; and Barkedji and Linguere, where transmission is seasonal. The occurrence and distribution of Schistosoma species and hybrids were assessed by molecular analyses of parasitological specimens obtained from the different hosts. Children in the study villages aged 5–17 years and enrolled in school were selected from school registers. Adults (aged 18–78 years) were self-selecting volunteers. Livestock from the study villages in both areas were also randomly sampled, as were post-mortem samples from local abattoirs. Additionally, five malacological surveys of snail intermediate hosts were carried out at each site in open water sources used by the communities and their animals. Findings In May to August, 2016, we surveyed 375 children and 20 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 201 children and 107 adults from Barkedji and Linguere; in October, 2017, to January, 2018, we surveyed 386 children and 88 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 323 children and 85 adults from Barkedji and Linguere. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 87% (95% CI 80–95) in 2016 and 88% (82–95) in 2017–18. An estimated 63% (in 2016) and 72% (in 2017–18) of infected children were shedding Schistosoma haematobium–Schistosoma bovis hybrids. In adults in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 79% (52–97) in 2016 and 41% (30–54) in 2017–18, with 88% of infected samples containing S haematobium–S bovis hybrids. In Barkedji and Linguere the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 30% (23–38) in 2016 and 42% (35–49) in 2017–18, with the proportion of infected children found to be shedding S haematobium–S bovis hybrid miracidia much lower than in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers (11% in 2016 and 9% in 2017–18). In adults in Barkedji and Linguere, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 26% (17–36) in 2016 and 47% (34–60) in 2017–18, with 10% of infected samples containing S haematobium–S bovis hybrids. The prevalence of S bovis in the sympatric cattle population of Richard Toll and the Lac de Guiers was 92% (80–99), with S bovis also found in sheep (estimated prevalence 14% [5–31]) and goats (15% [5–33]). In Barkedji and Linguere the main schistosome species in livestock was Schistosoma curassoni, with an estimated prevalence of 73% (48–93) in sheep, 84% (61–98) in goats and 8% (2–24) in cattle. S haematobium–S bovis hybrids were not found in livestock. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers 35% of infected Bulinus spp snail intermediate hosts were found to be shedding S haematobium–S bovis hybrids (68% shedding S haematobium; 17% shedding S bovis); however, no snails were found to be shedding S haematobium hybrids in Barkedji and Linguere (29% shedding S haematobium; 71% shedding S curassoni). Interpretation Our findings suggest that hybrids originate in humans via zoonotic spillover from livestock populations, where schistosomiasis is co-endemic. Introgressive hybridisation, evolving host ranges, and wider ecosystem contexts could affect the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis and other pathogens, demonstrating the need to consider control measures within a One Health framework. Funding Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems programme (UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK Department for International Development, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK Natural Environment Research Council, and UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory).

Background Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. Methods We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. Results We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is 1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. Conclusions If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’.