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Background: In patients with atrial fibrillation who survive an anticoagulation-associated intracerebral haemorrhage, a decision must be made as to whether restarting or permanently avoiding anticoagulation is the best long-term strategy to prevent recurrent stroke and other vascular events. In APACHE-AF, we aimed to estimate the rates of non-fatal stroke or vascular death in such patients when treated with apixaban compared with when anticoagulation was avoided, to inform the design of a larger trial. Methods: APACHE-AF was a prospective, randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial with masked endpoint assessment, done at 16 hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients who survived intracerebral haemorrhage while treated with anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation were eligible for inclusion 7–90 days after the haemorrhage. Participants also had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 2 and a score on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) of 4 or less. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral apixaban (5 mg twice daily or a reduced dose of 2·5 mg twice daily) or to avoid anticoagulation (oral antiplatelet agents could be prescribed at the discretion of the treating physician) by a central computerised randomisation system, stratified by the intention to start or withhold antiplatelet therapy in participants randomised to avoiding anticoagulation, and minimised for age and intracerebral haemorrhage location. The primary outcome was a composite of non-fatal stroke or vascular death, whichever came first, during a minimum follow-up of 6 months, analysed using Cox proportional hazards modelling in the intention-to-treat population. APACHE-AF is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02565693) and the Netherlands Trial Register (NL4395), and the trial is closed to enrolment at all participating sites. Findings: Between Jan 15, 2015, and July 6, 2020, we recruited 101 patients (median age 78 years [IQR 73–83]; 55 [54%] were men and 46 [46%] were women; 100 [99%] were White and one [1%] was Black) a median of 46 days (IQR 21–74) after intracerebral haemorrhage. 50 were assigned to apixaban and 51 to avoid anticoagulation (of whom 26 [51%] started antiplatelet therapy). None were lost to follow-up. Over a median follow-up of 1·9 years (IQR 1·0–3·1; 222 person-years), non-fatal stroke or vascular death occurred in 13 (26%) participants allocated to apixaban (annual event rate 12·6% [95% CI 6·7–21·5]) and in 12 (24%) allocated to avoid anticoagulation (11·9% [95% CI 6·2–20·8]; adjusted hazard ratio 1·05 [95% CI 0·48–2·31]; p=0·90). Serious adverse events that were not outcome events occurred in 29 (58%) of 50 participants assigned to apixaban and 29 (57%) of 51 assigned to avoid anticoagulation. Interpretation: Patients with atrial fibrillation who had an intracerebral haemorrhage while taking anticoagulants have a high subsequent annual risk of non-fatal stroke or vascular death, whether allocated to apixaban or to avoid anticoagulation. Our data underline the need for randomised controlled trials large enough to allow identification of subgroups in whom restarting anticoagulation might be either beneficial or hazardous. Funding: Dutch Heart Foundation (grant 2012T077).

Contains fulltext : 235277.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Background and Purpose: CREST (Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial) reported a higher periprocedural risk for any stroke, death, or myocardial infarction for women randomized to carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with women randomized to carotid endarterectomy (CEA). No difference in risk by treatment was detected for women relative to men in the 4-year primary outcome. We aimed to conduct a pooled analysis among symptomatic patients in large randomized trials to provide more precise estimates of sex differences in the CAS-to-CEA risk for any stroke or death during the 120-day periprocedural period and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. Methods: Data from the Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration included outcomes from symptomatic patients in EVA-3S (Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis), SPACE (Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy in Symptomatic Patients), ICSS (International Carotid Stenting Study), and CREST. The primary outcome was any stroke or death within 120 days after randomization and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. Event rates and relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression; effect modification by sex was assessed with a sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term, with significant interaction defined a priori as P ≤0.10. Results: Over a median 2.7 years of follow-up, 433 outcomes occurred in 3317 men and 1437 women. The CAS-to-CEA relative risk of the primary outcome was significantly lower for women compared with men in 1 trial, nominally lower in another, and nominally higher in the other two. The sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term was significant ( P =0.065), indicating heterogeneity among trials. Contributors to this heterogeneity are primarily differences in periprocedural period. When the trials are nevertheless pooled, there were no significant sex differences in risk in any follow-up period. Conclusions: There were significant differences between trials in the magnitude of sex differences in treatment effect (CAS-to-CEA relative risk), indicating pooling data from these trials to estimate sex differences might not be valid. Whether sex is acting as an effect modifier of the CAS-to-CEA treatment effect in symptomatic patients remains uncertain. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S) and NCT00004732 (CREST). URL: https://www.isrctn.com ; Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE) and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).

Background We investigated whether blood pressure lowering for secondary prevention is associated with a reduction in recurrent stroke risk and/or a higher risk of adverse events in very elderly compared with younger trial participants. Methods and Results This is a random effects meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials of blood pressure lowering for secondary stroke prevention to evaluate age‐stratified (2 =49%), and the magnitude of risk reduction did not differ by age subgroup (2 =0%), but there was an increased risk in those ≥80 years (RR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.22], 3.86, I 2 =0%). No increase was observed in the risk of falls, syncope, study withdrawal, or falls in either age subgroup. Conclusions Very elderly people in secondary prevention trials of blood pressure lowering have an increased risk of hypotensive symptoms, but with no statistical increase in the risk of falls, syncope, or mortality. However, evidence is lacking for frail elderly with multiple comorbidities who may be more vulnerable to adverse effects of blood pressure lowering.

Background Vascular prevention trials typically use dichotomous event outcomes although this may be inefficient statistically and gives no indication of event severity. We assessed whether ordinal outcomes would be more efficient and how to best analyse them. Methods Chief investigators of vascular prevention randomised controlled trials that showed evidence of either benefit or harm, or were included in a systematic review that overall showed benefit or harm, shared individual participant data from their trials. Ordered categorical versions of vascular event outcomes (such as stroke and myocardial infarction) were analysed using 15 statistical techniques and their results then ranked, with the result with the smallest p-value given the smallest rank. Friedman and Duncan’s multiple range tests were performed to assess differences between tests by comparing the average ranks for each statistical test. Results Data from 35 trials (254,223 participants) were shared with the collaboration. 13 trials had more than two treatment arms, resulting in 59 comparisons. Analysis approaches (Mann Whitney U, ordinal logistic regression, multiple regression, bootstrapping) that used ordinal outcome data had a smaller average rank and therefore appeared to be more efficient statistically than those that analysed the original binary outcomes. Conclusions Ordinal vascular outcome measures appear to be more efficient statistically than binary outcomes and provide information on the severity of event. We suggest a potential role for using ordinal outcomes in vascular prevention trials.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background and Purpose: Lifelong treatment with antiplatelet drugs is recommended following a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Bleeding complications may offset the benefit of antiplatelet drugs in patients at increased risk of bleeding and low risk of recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to investigate the net benefit of antiplatelet treatment according to an individuals’ bleeding risk. Methods: We pooled individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (CAPRIE [Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events], ESPS-2 [European Stroke Prevention Study-2], MATCH [Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients], CHARISMA [Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management, and Avoidance], ESPRIT [European/Australasian Stroke Prevention in Reversible Ischemia Trial], and PRoFESS [Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Second Strokes]) investigating antiplatelet therapy in the subacute or chronic phase after noncardioembolic transient ischemic attack or stroke. Patients were stratified into quintiles according to their predicted risk of major bleeding with the S2TOP-BLEED score. The annual risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events was assessed per quintile for 4 scenarios: (1) aspirin monotherapy, (2) aspirin-clopidogrel versus aspirin or clopidogrel monotherapy, (3) aspirin-dipyridamole versus clopidogrel, and (4) aspirin versus clopidogrel. Net benefit was calculated for the second, third, and fourth scenario. Results: Thirty seven thousand eighty-seven patients were included in the analyses. Both risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events increased over quintiles of predicted bleeding risk, but risk of ischemic events was consistently higher (eg, from 0.7%/y (bottom quintile) to 3.2%/y (top quintile) for major bleeding on aspirin and from 2.5%/y to 10.2%/y for risk of ischemic events on aspirin). Treatment with aspirin-clopidogrel led to more major bleedings (0.9%–1.7% per year), than reduction in ischemic events (ranging from 0.4% to 0.9/1.0% per year) across all quintiles. There was no clear preference for either aspirin-dipyridamole or clopidogrel according to baseline bleeding risk. Conclusions: Among patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke included in clinical trials of antiplatelet therapy, the risk of recurrent ischemic events and of major bleeding increase in parallel. Antiplatelet treatment cannot be individualized solely based on bleeding risk assessment.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies have suggested that gadolinium enhancement of the wall of unruptured intracranial aneurysms on MR imaging may reflect aneurysm wall instability. However, all previous studies were cross-sectional. In this longitudinal study, we investigated whether aneurysm wall enhancement is associated with an increased risk of aneurysm instability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included all patients 18 years of age or older with ≥1 unruptured aneurysm from the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, who were included in 2 previous studies with either 3T or 7T aneurysm wall MR imaging and for whom it was decided not to treat the aneurysm but to monitor it with follow-up imaging. We investigated the risk of growth or rupture during follow-up of aneurysms with and without gadolinium enhancement of the aneurysm wall at baseline and calculated the risk difference between the 2 groups with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 57 patients with 65 unruptured intracranial aneurysms. After a median follow-up of 27 months (interquartile range, 20-31 months), growth (n = 2) or rupture (n = 2) was observed in 4 of 19 aneurysms (21%; 95% CI, 6%-54%) with wall enhancement and in zero of 46 aneurysms (0%; 95% CI, 0%-8%) without enhancement (risk difference, 21%; 95% CI, 3%-39%). CONCLUSIONS: Gadolinium enhancement of the aneurysm wall on MR imaging is associated with an increased risk of aneurysm instability. The absence of wall enhancement makes it unlikely that the aneurysm will grow or rupture in the short term. Larger studies are needed to investigate whether aneurysm wall enhancement is an independent predictor of aneurysm instability.

We thank Zheng et al. for their interest in our publication.1 We agree that the effect of the risk factor of smoking for nonlobar ICH vs lobar ICH might be underestimated. Heterogeneity is indeed considerable in the direct comparison of nonlobar ICH vs lobar ICH. If the study by Inagawa et al. (e-Ref #15)—not Booth et al. as mentioned in the comment—is excluded from the analysis, the pooled RR for nonlobar vs lobar ICH is 1.32 (1.09–1.59; I2 = 21%; p value for heterogeneity = 0.27). However, that study fulfilled the inclusion criteria and hence was included. In the comparison of nonlobar ICH vs controls, we found no support for smoking as a risk factor for non-lobar ICH (pooled RR 1.09 [0.92–1.31]), also not when we excluded Inagawa's study (pooled RR 1.11 [0.91–1.37]). As we discussed, the included studies used different definitions of smoking—never, current or past—instead of burden of smoking, expressed in number of pack years; this may have contributed to the heterogeneous results.

Background and Purpose: Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a major contributor to the high morbidity in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Spreading depolarizations may play a role in DCI pathophysiology. Because patients with migraine are probably more susceptible to spreading depolarizations, we investigated whether patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage with migraine are at increased risk for DCI. Methods: We included patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage from 3 hospitals in the Netherlands. We assessed lifetime migraine history with a short screener. DCI was defined as neurological deterioration lasting >1 hour not attributable to other causes by diagnostic work-up. Adjustments were made for possible confounders in multivariable Cox regression analyses and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were calculated. We assessed the interaction effects of age and sex. Results: We included 582 patients (mean age 57 years, 71% women) mostly with mild to moderate aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage of whom 108 (19%) had a history of migraine (57 with aura). Patients with migraine were not at increased risk of developing DCI compared with patients without migraine (22% versus 24%, aHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.56–1.43]). Additionally, no increased risk was found in patients with migraine with possible aura (aHR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.39–1.43]), in women (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.53–1.45], P interaction =0.859), or in young patients aged P interaction =0.075). Conclusions: Patients with migraine are in general not at increased risk of DCI. Future studies should focus in particular on young SAH patients, in whom there might be an association between migraine history and development of DCI.

ObjectiveTo conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting on risk factors according to location of the intracerebral hemorrhage.MethodsWe searched PubMed and Embase for cohort and case-control studies reporting ≥100 patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage that specified the location of the hematoma and reported associations with risk factors published until June 27, 2019. Two authors independently extracted data on risk factors. Estimates were pooled with the generic variance-based random-effects method.ResultsAfter screening 10,013 articles, we included 42 studies totaling 26,174 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (9,141 lobar and 17,033 nonlobar). Risk factors for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage were hypertension (risk ratio [RR] 4.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.05–5.91, I2 = 92%), diabetes mellitus (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11–1.64, I2 = 37%), male sex (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.25–2.14, I2 = 61%), alcohol overuse (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.21–1.81, I2 = 19%), underweight (RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.12–4.01, I2 = 31%), and being a Black (RR 2.83, 95% CI 1.02-7.84, I2 = 96%) or Hispanic (RR 2.95, 95% CI 1.69-5.14, I2 = 71%) participant compared with being a White participant. Hypertension, but not any of the other risk factors, was also a risk factor for lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (RR 1.83, 95% CI 1.39–2.42, I2 = 76%). Smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity were associated with neither nonlobar nor lobar intracerebral hemorrhage.ConclusionsHypertension is a risk factor for both nonlobar and lobar intracerebral hemorrhage, although with double the effect for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage. Diabetes mellitus, male sex, alcohol overuse, underweight, and being a Black or Hispanic person are risk factors for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage only. Hence, the term hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage is not appropriate.

Background Central adjudication of outcomes is common for randomised trials and should control for differential misclassification. However, few studies have estimated the cost of the adjudication process. Methods We estimated the cost of adjudicating the primary outcome in nine randomised stroke trials (25,436 participants). The costs included adjudicators’ time, direct payments to adjudicators, and co-ordinating centre costs (e.g. uploading cranial scans and general set-up costs). The number of events corrected after adjudication was our measure of benefit. We calculated cost per corrected event for each trial and in total. Results The primary outcome in all nine trials was either stroke or a composite that included stroke. In total, the adjudication process associated with this primary outcome cost in excess of £100,000 for a third of the trials (3/9). Mean cost per event corrected by adjudication was £2295.10 (SD: £1482.42). Conclusions Central adjudication is a time-consuming and potentially costly process. These costs need to be considered when designing a trial and should be evaluated alongside the potential benefits adjudication brings to determine whether they outweigh this expense.

BackgroundIn acute stroke studies, ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is often used to analyze outcome on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), whereas the non-parametric Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (MWS) has also been suggested. It is unclear how these perform comparatively when confounding adjustment is warranted. Our aim is to quantify the performance of OLR and MWS in different confounding variable settings.MethodsWe set up a simulation study with three different scenarios; (1) dichotomous confounding variables, (2) continuous confounding variables, and (3) confounding variable settings mimicking a study on functional outcome after stroke. We compared adjusted ordinal logistic regression (aOLR) and stratified Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (sMWS), and also used propensity scores to stratify the MWS (psMWS). For comparability, OLR estimates were transformed to a MWS. We report bias, the percentage of runs that produced a point estimate deviating by more than 0.05 points (point estimate variation), and the coverage probability.ResultsIn scenario 1, there was no bias in both sMWS and aOLR, with similar point estimate variation and coverage probabilities. In scenario 2, sMWS resulted in more bias (0.04 versus 0.00), and higher point estimate variation (41.6% versus 3.3%), whereas coverage probabilities were similar. In scenario 3, there was no bias in both methods, point estimate variation was higher in the sMWS (6.7%) versus aOLR (1.1%), and coverage probabilities were 0.98 (sMWS) versus 0.95 (aOLR). With psMWS, bias remained 0.00, with less point estimate variation (1.5%) and a coverage probability of 0.95.ConclusionsThe bias of both adjustment methods was similar in our stroke simulation scenario, and the higher point estimate variation in the MWS improved with propensity score based stratification. The stratified MWS is a valid alternative for adjusted OLR only when the ratio of number of strata versus number of observations is relatively low, but propensity score based stratification extends the application range of the MWS.

Background Patients with migraine might be more susceptible of spreading depolarizations, which are known to affect vascular and neuronal function and penumbra recovery after stroke. We investigated whether these patients have more severe stroke progression and less favorable outcomes after recanalization therapy. Methods We included patients from a prospective multicenter ischemic stroke cohort. Lifetime migraine history was based on the International Classification of Headache Disorders II criteria. Patients without confirmed migraine diagnosis were excluded. Patients underwent CT angiography and CT perfusion Results We included 600 patients of whom 43 had migraine. There were no differences between patients with or without migraine in presence of a perfusion deficit on admission (aRR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.77–1.25), infarct core volume (aB: -10.8, 95%CI: -27.04–5.51), penumbra volume (aB: -11.6, 95%CI: -26.52–3.38), mean blood brain barrier permeability (aB: 0.08, 95%CI: -3.11–2.96), malignant edema (0% vs. 5%), hemorrhagic transformation (aRR: 0.26, 95%CI: 0.04–1.73), final infarct volume (aB: -14.8, 95%CI: 29.9–0.2) or outcome after recanalization therapy (mRS > 2, aRR: 0.50, 95%CI: 0.21–1.22). Conclusion Elderly patients with a history of migraine do not seem to have more severe stroke progression and have similar treatment outcomes compared with patients without migraine.

Background and Purpose— Patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for symptomatic stenosis of the internal carotid artery benefit from early intervention. Heterogeneous data are available on the influence of timing of carotid artery stenting (CAS) on procedural risk. Methods— We investigated the association between timing of treatment (0–7 days and >7 days after the qualifying neurological event) and the 30-day risk of stroke or death after CAS or CEA in a pooled analysis of individual patient data from 4 randomized trials by the Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration. Analyses were done per protocol. To obtain combined estimates, logistic mixed models were applied. Results— Among a total of 4138 patients, a minority received their allocated treatment within 7 days after symptom onset (14% CAS versus 11% CEA). Among patients treated within 1 week of symptoms, those treated by CAS had a higher risk of stroke or death compared with those treated with CEA: 8.3% versus 1.3%, risk ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.1 to 21.9 (adjusted for age at treatment, sex, and type of qualifying event). For interventions after 1 week, CAS was also more hazardous than CEA: 7.1% versus 3.6%, adjusted risk ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.7 ( P value for interaction with time interval 0.06). Conclusions— In randomized trials comparing stenting with CEA for symptomatic carotid artery stenosis, CAS was associated with a substantially higher periprocedural risk during the first 7 days after the onset of symptoms. Early surgery is safer than stenting for preventing future stroke. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00190398; URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028; Unique identifier: ISRCTN25337470; URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00004732.

Objective:To develop and externally validate a prediction model for major bleeding in patients with a TIA or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents.Methods:We combined individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (CAPRIE, ESPS-2, MATCH, CHARISMA, ESPRIT, and PRoFESS) investigating antiplatelet therapy after TIA or ischemic stroke. Cox regression analyses stratified by trial were performed to study the association between predictors and major bleeding. A risk prediction model was derived and validated in the PERFORM trial. Performance was assessed with the c statistic and calibration plots.Results:Major bleeding occurred in 1,530 of the 43,112 patients during 94,833 person-years of follow-up. The observed 3-year risk of major bleeding was 4.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4%–4.9%). Predictors were male sex, smoking, type of antiplatelet agents (aspirin-clopidogrel), outcome on modified Rankin Scale ≥3, prior stroke, high blood pressure, lower body mass index, elderly, Asian ethnicity, and diabetes (S2TOP-BLEED). The S2TOP-BLEED score had a c statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.60–0.64) and showed good calibration in the development data. Major bleeding risk ranged from 2% in patients aged 45–54 years without additional risk factors to more than 10% in patients aged 75–84 years with multiple risk factors. In external validation, the model had a c statistic of 0.61 (95% CI 0.59–0.63) and slightly underestimated major bleeding risk.Conclusions:The S2TOP-BLEED score can be used to estimate 3-year major bleeding risk in patients with a TIA or ischemic stroke who use antiplatelet agents, based on readily available characteristics. The discriminatory performance may be improved by identifying stronger predictors of major bleeding.

Background and Purpose— This analysis was performed to assess the association between perioperative and clinical variables and the 30-day risk of stroke or death after carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. Methods— Individual patient-level data from the 5 largest randomized controlled carotid trials were pooled in the Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration database. A total of 4181 patients who received carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic stenosis per protocol were included. Determinants of outcome included carotid endarterectomy technique, type of anesthesia, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring, shunting, antiplatelet medication, and clinical variables. Stroke or death within 30 days after carotid endarterectomy was the primary outcome. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated in multilevel multivariable analyses using a Poisson regression model. Results— Mean age was 69.5±9.2 years (70.7% men). The 30-day stroke or death rate was 4.3%. In the multivariable regression analysis, local anesthesia was associated with a lower primary outcome rate (versus general anesthesia; aRR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.50–0.99]). Shunting (aRR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.05–1.95]), a contralateral high-grade carotid stenosis or occlusion (aRR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.02–2.47]), and a more severe neurological deficit (mRS, 3–5 versus 0–2: aRR, 2.51 [95% CI, 1.30–4.83]) were associated with higher primary outcome rates. None of the other characteristics were significantly associated with the perioperative stroke or death risk. Conclusions— The current results indicate lower perioperative stroke or death rates in patients operated upon under local anesthesia, whereas a more severe neurological deficit and a contralateral high-grade carotid stenosis or occlusion were identified as potential risk factors. Despite a possible selection bias and patients not having been randomized, these findings might be useful to guide surgeons and anesthetists when treating patients with symptomatic carotid disease.

Background and Purpose— Hypercoagulable states in migraine patients may play a role in the pathophysiology underlying the association between migraine and ischemic stroke. This study aims to provide more insight into the potential association of headache, ischemic stroke, and the intrinsic coagulation pathway. Methods— We included patients from the RATIO study (Risk of Arterial Thrombosis in Relation to Oral Contraceptives), a Dutch population-based case-control study including young women (age Results— We included 113 ischemic stroke cases and 598 healthy controls. In total, 134 (19%) patients had a history of headache, of whom 38 were cases and 96 controls. The combination of headache and high intrinsic coagulation protein levels (all but FXII antigen level and both FXIa-inhibitors) was associated with an increase in ischemic stroke risk higher than was expected based on their individual effects (adjusted odds ratio FXI antigen level alone: 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0–2.9; adjusted odds ratio headache alone: 2.0, 95% CI, 1.1−3.7; combination: 5.2, 95% CI, 2.3−11.6) Conclusions— Headache and high intrinsic coagulation protein levels may biologically interact, increasing risk for ischemic stroke.

Background: Over the past decades, stroke risk associated with carotid disease has decreased, reflecting improvements in medical therapy and a more rigorous control of vascular risk factors. It is less clear whether the procedural risk of carotid revascularization has declined over time. Methods: We analyzed temporal changes in procedural risks among 4597 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis treated with carotid artery stenting (n=2326) or carotid endarterectomy (n=2271) in 4 randomized trials between 2000 and 2008, using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a random intercept for each source trial. Models were additionally adjusted for age and other baseline characteristics predicting treatment risk. The primary outcome event was any procedural stroke or death, occurring during or within 30 days after revascularization. Results: The procedural stroke or death risk decreased significantly over time in all patients (unadjusted odds ratio per year, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85–0.97; P =0.006). This effect was driven by a decrease in the carotid endarterectomy group (unadjusted odds ratio per year, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73–0.92; P =0.003), whereas no significant decrease was found after carotid artery stenting (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.88–1.04; P =0.33). Carotid endarterectomy patients had a lower procedural stroke or death risk compared with carotid artery stenting patients, and the difference significantly increased over time (interaction P =0.031). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, the results remained essentially the same. Conclusions: The risk of stroke or death associated with carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis decreased over an 8-year period, independent of clinical predictors of procedural risk. No corresponding reduction in procedural risk was seen in patients treated with stenting. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S), NCT00004732 (CREST), ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE), and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).

Background and Purpose— Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is associated with a higher risk of both hemodynamic depression and new ischemic brain lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging than carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We assessed whether the occurrence of hemodynamic depression is associated with these lesions in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis treated by CAS or CEA in the randomized International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)-MRI substudy. Methods— The number and total volume of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging 1 to 3 days after CAS or CEA was measured in the ICSS-MRI substudy. Hemodynamic depression was defined as periprocedural bradycardia, asystole, or hypotension requiring treatment. The number of new ischemic lesions was the primary outcome measure. We calculated risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals per treatment with Poisson regression comparing the number of lesions in patients with or without hemodynamic depression. Results— A total of 229 patients were included (122 allocated CAS; 107 CEA). After CAS, patients with hemodynamic depression had a mean of 13 new diffusion-weighted imaging lesions, compared with a mean of 4 in those without hemodynamic depression (risk ratio, 3.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.73–6.50). The number of lesions after CEA was too small for reliable analysis. Lesion volumes did not differ between patients with or without hemodynamic depression. Conclusions— In patients treated by CAS, periprocedural hemodynamic depression is associated with an excess of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging. The findings support the hypothesis that hypoperfusion increases the susceptibility of the brain to embolism. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN25337470.

Contains fulltext : 208975.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) BACKGROUND: Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1.34 years [IQR 0.19-2.44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1.35 (95% CI 1.20-1.50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2.45 (1.82-3.29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1.23 (1.08-1.40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4.55 [95% CI 3.08-6.72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1.47 [1.19-1.80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5.52 [3.36-9.05] vs 1.43 [1.07-1.91]; and for >/=20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8.61 [4.69-15.81] vs 1.86 [1.23-1.82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for >/=20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION: In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association.

Background The risk of periprocedural stroke or death is higher after carotid artery stenting (CAS) than carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis. However, long-term outcomes have not been sufficiently assessed. We sought to combine individual patient-level data from the four major randomised controlled trials of CAS versus CEA for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis to assess long-term outcomes. Methods We did a pooled analysis of individual patient-level data, acquired from the four largest randomised controlled trials assessing the relative efficacy of CAS and CEA for treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis (Endarterectomy versus Angioplasty in Patients with Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis trial, Stent-Protected Percutaneous Angioplasty of the Carotid Artery versus Endarterectomy trial, International Carotid Stenting Study, and Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial). The risk of ipsilateral stroke was assessed between 121 days and 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 10 years after randomisation. The primary outcome was the composite risk of stroke or death within 120 days after randomisation (periprocedural risk) or subsequent ipsilateral stroke up to 10 years after randomisation (postprocedural risk). Analyses were intention-to-treat, with the risk of events calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards analysis with adjustment for trial. Findings In the four trials included, 4775 patients were randomly assigned, of whom a total of 4754 (99·6%) patients were followed up for a maximum of 12·4 years. 21 (0·4%) patients immediately withdrew consent after randomisation and were excluded. Median length of follow-up across the studies ranged from 2·0 to 6·9 years. 129 periprocedural and 55 postprocedural outcome events occurred in patients allocated CEA, and 206 and 57 for those allocated CAS. After the periprocedural period, the annual rates of ipsilateral stroke per person-year were similar for the two treatments: 0·60% (95% CI 0·46–0·79) for CEA and 0·64% (0·49–0·83) for CAS. Nonetheless, the periprocedural and postprocedural risks combined favoured CEA, with treatment differences at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 years all ranging between 2·8% (1·1–4·4) and 4·1% (2·0–6·3). Interpretation Outcomes in the postprocedural period after CAS and CEA were similar, suggesting robust clinical durability for both treatments. Although long-term outcomes (periprocedural and postprocedural risks combined) continue to favour CEA, the similarity of the postprocedural rates suggest that improvements in the periprocedural safety of CAS could provide similar outcomes of the two procedures in the future.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background and Purpose— We assessed the efficacy and safety of antiplatelet agents after noncardioembolic stroke or transient ischemic attack and examined how these vary according to patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics. Methods— We did a network meta-analysis (NMA) of data from 6 randomized trials of the effects of commonly prescribed antiplatelet agents in the long-term (≥3 months) secondary prevention of noncardioembolic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Individual patient data from 43 112 patients were pooled and reanalyzed. Main outcomes were serious vascular events (nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or vascular death), major bleeding, and net clinical benefit (serious vascular event or major bleeding). Subgroup analyses were done according to age, sex, ethnicity, hypertension, qualifying diagnosis, type of vessel involved (large versus small vessel disease), and time from qualifying event to randomization. Results— Aspirin/dipyridamole combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74–0.94) significantly reduced the risk of vascular events compared with aspirin, as did clopidogrel (RRNMA-adj, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.78–0.98), and aspirin/clopidogrel combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71–0.96). Clopidogrel caused significantly less major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage than aspirin, aspirin/dipyridamole combination, and aspirin/clopidogrel combination. Aspirin/clopidogrel combination caused significantly more major bleeding than aspirin, aspirin/dipyridamole combination, and clopidogrel. Net clinical benefit was similar for clopidogrel and aspirin/dipyridamole combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93–1.05). Subgroup analyses showed no heterogeneity of treatment effectiveness across prespecified subgroups. The excess risk of major bleeding associated with aspirin/clopidogrel combination compared with clopidogrel alone was higher in patients aged

Importance Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) from ruptured intracranial aneurysms is a subset of stroke with high fatality and morbidity. Better understanding of a change in incidence over time and of factors associated with this change could facilitate primary prevention. Objective To assess worldwide SAH incidence according to region, age, sex, time period, blood pressure, and smoking prevalence. Data Sources We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for studies on SAH incidence published between January 1960 and March 2017. Worldwide blood pressure and smoking prevalence data were extracted from the Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factor and Global Burden of Disease data sets. Study Selection Population-based studies with prospective designs representative of the entire study population according to predefined criteria. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two reviewers independently extracted data according to PRISMA guidelines. Incidence of SAH was calculated per 100 000 person-years, and risk ratios (RRs) including 95% CIs were calculated with multivariable random-effects binomial regression. The association of SAH incidence with blood pressure and smoking prevalence was assessed with linear regression. Main Outcomes and Measures Incidence of SAH. Results A total of 75 studies from 32 countries were included. These studies comprised 8176 patients with SAH were studied over 67 746 051 person-years. Overall crude SAH incidence across all midyears was 7.9 (95% CI, 6.9-9.0) per 100 000 person-years; the RR for women was 1.3 (95% CI, 0.98-1.7). Compared with men aged 45 to 54 years, the RR in Japanese women older than 75 years was 2.5 (95% CI, 1.8-3.4) and in European women older than 75 years was 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9-2.5). Global SAH incidence declined from 10.2 (95% CI, 8.4-12.5) per 100 000 person-years in 1980 to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.9-7.5) in 2010 or by 1.7% (95% CI, 0.6-2.8) annually between 1955 and 2014. Incidence of SAH declined between 1980 and 2010 by 40.6% in Europe, 46.2% in Asia, and 14.0% in North America and increased by 59.1% in Japan. The global SAH incidence declined with every millimeter of mercury decrease in systolic blood pressure by 7.1% (95% CI, 5.8-8.4) and with every percentage decrease in smoking prevalence by 2.4% (95% CI, 1.6-3.3). Conclusions and Relevance Worldwide SAH incidence and its decline show large regional differences and parallel the decrease in blood pressure and smoking prevalence. Understanding determinants for regional differences and further reducing blood pressure and smoking prevalence may yield a diminished SAH burden.

Background Stress is associated with increased risk of stroke and might predispose to presence and rupture of intracranial aneurysms. Objective To study the association of recent and lifelong stress with unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH). Methods In 227 UIA patients (mean age 61 ± 11 yr), 490 ASAH patients (59 ± 11 yr), and 775 controls (51 ± 15 yr) who were randomly retrieved from the general population, we assessed occurrence of major life events and perceived stress during the preceding 12 mo and the entire life. With multivariable logistic regression analysis, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for 4 categories of life events (financial-related, work-related, children-related, and death of family members) and for periods of perceived stress at home and at work (never vs sometimes, often, or always). We adjusted for sex, age, alcohol consumption, smoking, and hypertension. Results The 4 categories of life events and perceived stress at work had ORs ranging from 0.4 to 1.7, of which financial stress for UIA was statistically significant (95% CI: 1.1-2.5). ORs for chronic perceived stress at home in the previous year were 4.3 (95% CI: 1.8-10.3) for UIA and 2.5 (1.2-5.5) for ASAH, and for lifelong exposure 5.7 (2.2-14.5) for UIA and 3.0 (1.3-7.0) for ASAH. Conclusion For some components of stress, there may be a relation with UIA and ASAH. The mechanisms underlying this relation should be unraveled; strategies to improve coping with stress may reduce the risk of rupture in patients with unruptured aneurysms.

Background We aimed to investigate the role of hypercoagulability on the risk of lifetime cardiovascular recurrences after myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke. Methods Young women (

Background and Purpose— Intracranial aneurysm (IA) size and location are important determinants of aneurysm rupture risk. In familial IAs there is concordance of location; however, if such concordance exists for size is unknown. We analyzed the concordance of aneurysm size at time of rupture in familial IAs. Methods— In pairs of affected relatives with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, the ratio between the largest and the smallest aneurysm size at time of rupture was calculated. We also compared the proportion of families in which both IAs ruptured at a size < or ≥7 mm with the proportion of families in which one IA ruptured at Results— About 130 patients from 64 families were included. Of the 68 affected pairs 18 (26%) had a ratio ≤1.2, 38 (57%) had a ratio >1.2, and 12 (17%) had a ratio ≥3. We found no difference between the proportion of families (n=31; 49%) who both had IA at time of rupture P =0.86). Overall, the repeatability in aneurysm size at rupture within familial IAs was 0.10 (95% CI, 0–0.35). Conclusions— There is no good concordance in aneurysm size at rupture within familial IAs. These data suggest that size of a ruptured IA in a family member should not significantly impact on the management of a familial unruptured IA in a relative.

Background and purposePatient and aneurysm characteristics have been reported to differ between patients with familial and non-familial intracranial aneurysms (IAs), although results are inconsistent. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed the literature to identify and quantify patient- and aneurysm characteristics associated with familial IAs.MethodsWe searched PubMed and EMBASE for case-control and cohort studies comparing patient- and aneurysm characteristics between familial and non-familial IAs. Two observers independently assessed study eligibility and appraised quality with the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. With univariable weighted linear regression analysis we calculated β-coefficients with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ruptured and unruptured IAs combined and for ruptured IAs only. Heterogeneity was assessed with Higgins I2.ResultsA total of 15 articles were included in the meta-analysis in which 16,346 patients were analyzed with a total of 14,225 IAs. For ruptured and unruptured IAs combined, multiple IAs were more prevalent in familial (28.5%) than in non-familial IAs (20.4%; β = 0.10, 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.16; I2 0%). For ruptured IAs only, in familial patients IAs were more prevalent on the middle cerebral artery (41.1% versus 29.5%; β = 0.12, 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.24; I2 12%) and ruptured at a younger age (46.5 years versus 50.8 years; β = -5.00, 95% CI, -9.31 to -0.69; I2 98%) than in non-familial patients. No significant differences were found for the proportion of women, size of the aneurysm at time of rupture, smoking or hypertension.ConclusionThese results suggest that characteristics of familial and non-familial IAs show considerable overlap, yet differ on specific aspects. However, results for age at rupture showed considerable heterogeneity. These findings should be taken into consideration for future etiological research into IAs.

Background and purpose Methods In randomized trials magnesium supplementation did not improve clinical outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) on handicap scales. After aSAH, many patients have cognitive problems that may not translate into handicap. The effect of magnesium on cognitive outcome after aSAH was studied. In total, 209 patients who had been included in the Magnesium for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (MASH-2) trial in the University Medical Centre of Utrecht were studied. Patients had been randomized to 64 mmol magnesium sulfate daily or placebo during hospitalization. Three months after aSAH patients underwent a neuropsychological examination (NPE) consisting of six neuropsychological tests or a brief cognitive assessment. Poisson and linear regression analyses were used to analyse the effect of magnesium on cognition. Results Conclusions In the magnesium group 53 (49.5%) of the 107 patients and in the placebo group 51 (50.0%) of the 102 patients scored lower than the median cognitive score [relative risk 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.30]. Linear regression analyses showed no significant relationship between intervention and cognition (B = 0.05, 95% CI -0.15 to 0.33). Treatment with magnesium has no effect on cognitive outcome after aSAH.

Importance In patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction, surgical decompression reduces the risk of death and increases the chance of a favorable outcome. Uncertainties, however, still remain about the benefit of this treatment for specific patient groups. Objective To assess whether surgical decompression for space-occupying hemispheric infarction is associated with a reduced risk of death and an increased chance of favorable outcomes, as well as whether this association is modified by patient characteristics. Data Sources MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Stroke Trials Registry were searched from database inception to October 9, 2019, for English-language articles that reported on the results of randomized clinical trials of surgical decompression vs conservative treatment in patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction. Study Selection Published and unpublished randomized clinical trials comparing surgical decompression with medical treatment alone were selected. Data Extraction and Synthesis Patient-level data were extracted from the trial databases according to a predefined protocol and statistical analysis plan. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline and the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias were used. One-stage, mixed-effect logistic regression modeling was used for all analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was a favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score ≤3) at 1 year after stroke. Secondary outcomes included death, reasonable (mRS score ≤4) and excellent (mRS score ≤2) outcomes at 6 months and 1 year, and an ordinal shift analysis across all levels of the mRS. Variables for subgroup analyses were age, sex, presence of aphasia, stroke severity, time to randomization, and involved vascular territories. Results Data from 488 patients from 7 trials from 6 countries were available for analysis. The risk of bias was considered low to moderate for 6 studies. Surgical decompression was associated with a decreased chance of death (adjusted odds ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.10-0.24) and increased chance of a favorable outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.55-5.60), without evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect across any of the prespecified subgroups. Too few patients were treated later than 48 hours after stroke onset to allow reliable conclusions in this subgroup, and the reported proportions of elderly patients reaching a favorable outcome differed considerably among studies. Conclusions and Relevance The results suggest that the benefit of surgical decompression for space-occupying hemispheric infarction is consistent across a wide range of patients. The benefit of surgery after day 2 and in elderly patients remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE This study investigated whether the increased incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in winter is related to temperature or increased incidence of influenza. Such relationships may elucidate the pathogenesis of intracranial aneurysm rupture. METHODS A nationwide sample of 18,714 patients with SAH was linked with weekly temperature and influenza-like illness consultation data. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate incidence density ratios (IDRs) with corresponding 95% CIs for the association of SAH incidence with temperature and influenza epidemics; IDRs were adjusted for study year (aIDR). In addition, SAH incidence data from 30 European population-based studies were linked with daily temperature data from the European Climate Assessment. RESULTS The aIDR for SAH during influenza epidemics was 1.061 (95% CI 1.022–1.101) in the univariable and 1.030 (95% CI 0.989–1.074) in the multivariable analysis. This association declined gradually during the weeks after epidemics. Per 1°C temperature drop, the aIDR was 1.005 (95% CI 1.003–1.008) in the univariable and 1.004 (95% CI 1.002–1.007) in the multivariable analysis. In the European population-based studies, the IDR was 1.143 (95% CI 1.129–1.157) per 1°C temperature drop. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of SAH is increased during cold temperatures and epidemic influenza. Future studies with individual patient data are needed to investigate causality between temperature or influenza and SAH.

Objective Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage is one of the most challenging complications in neurosurgery. We sought to evaluate the efficacy of dural sealants in preventing CSF leakage after cranial surgery. Methods A literature search was performed in the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases. The inclusion criteria were defined to include articles describing regular cranial procedures combined with the use of any dural sealant reporting CSF leakage. The primary outcome was CSF leakage (pseudomeningocele formation or incisional CSF leakage), secondary outcomes were pseudomeningocele formation, incisional CSF leakage, and surgical-site infection. Results Twenty articles were included. Ten of these were comparative studies (sealant vs. no sealant) including 3 randomized controlled trials. In the 20 articles, a total of 3682 surgical procedures were reported. The number of CSF leakages in general did not differ between the sealant group (8.2%) and control group (8.4%), risk ratio (RR) 0.84 (0.50–1.42), I2 = 56%. Exclusion of non-randomized controlled trials did not alter the results. Meta-analyses for secondary outcomes showed no difference between number of incisional CSF leakage, RR 0.30 (0.05–1.59), I2 = 38%. Also, no difference was found in the pseudomeningocele formation, RR 1.50 (0.43–5.17), I2 = 0%. Surgical-site infection was seen less in the sealant group (1.0%) compared with the control group (5.6%), RR 0.25 (0.13–0.48), I2 = 0%. Conclusions This systematic review showed that dural sealants did not reduce the number of CSF leaks in general, the number of incisional CSF leaks alone, or the number of pseudomeningocele formations alone. However, dural sealants reduced the risk of surgical-site infection.

Rationale Unruptured intracranial aneurysms are currently left untreated if the presumed complication risk of preventive endovascular or neurosurgical intervention is higher than the risk of rupture. Aneurysm wall inflammation and blood pressure are attractive modifiable risk factors of aneurysm rupture and growth. Aim To investigate in patients with an unruptured intracranial aneurysm who do not qualify for preventive endovascular or neurosurgical intervention whether a treatment strategy of acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg/day plus intensive blood pressure treatment (targeted systolic blood pressure Sample size We aim to randomize 776 patients 1:1 to the intervention arm or care as usual. Design Bi-national (Germany and the Netherlands) multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label phase III trial with blinded outcome assessment. Outcomes The primary outcome is aneurysm rupture or growth (increase in any aneurysm diameter by ≥ 1 mm) on repeated MR or CT angiography within 36 ± 6 months after randomization. Discussion The Prospective Randomized Open-label Trial to Evaluate risk faCTor management in patients with Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (PROTECT-U) is the first randomized trial to investigate if a medical strategy reduces the risk of rupture or growth of intracranial aneurysms in patients not undergoing preventive endovascular or neurosurgical aneurysm treatment. Clinical trial Registration: NCT03063541.

Background and Purpose— Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods— From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results— Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49–0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions— Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.

ObjectiveTo study the early time course of major bleeding and its subtypes in patients with cerebral ischemia on dual and single antiplatelet therapy.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis on individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischaemic Events [CAPRIE], Second European Stroke Prevention Study [ESPS-2], Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients [MATCH], Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management, and Avoidance [CHARISMA], European/Australasian Stroke Prevention in Reversible Ischaemia Trial [ESPRIT], and Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Second Strokes [PRoFESS]) including 45,195 patients with a TIA or noncardioembolic ischemic stroke. We studied incidence rates of bleeding per antiplatelet regimen stratified by time from randomization (≤30, 31–90, 91–180, 181–365, >365 days). We calculated incidence rates per trial and pooled estimates with random-effects meta-analysis. We performed Poisson regression to assess differences between time periods with adjustment for age and sex.ResultsThe incidence of major bleeding on aspirin plus clopidogrel and aspirin plus -dipyridamole was highest in the first 30 days, 5.8 and 4.9 per 100 person-years, respectively, and was significantly higher than at 31 to 90 days (rate ratio 1.98, 95% confidence interval 1.16–3.40 for aspirin plus clopidogrel; rate ratio 1.94, 95% confidence interval 1.24–3.03 for aspirin plus dipyridamole). Incidence rates on aspirin and clopidogrel monotherapy were 2.8 and 2.5 per 100 person-years, respectively, in the first 30 days, with no significant change over time. The time course was similar for gastrointestinal bleeds. There was no early excess of intracranial hemorrhage in patients on either dual or single antiplatelet therapy.ConclusionDual antiplatelet therapy is associated with high early risks of major and gastrointestinal bleeding that decline after the first month in trial cohorts.

IntroductionTime is the most crucial factor limiting efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and intra-arterial thrombectomy (IAT). The delay between alarming the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) dispatch office and IVT/IAT initiation, that is, the‘total system delay’(TSD), depends on logistics and team effort. A promising method to reduce TSD is real-time audio-visual feedback to caregivers involved. With ‘A Reduction in Time with Electronic Monitoring in Stroke’ (ARTEMIS), we aim to investigate the effect of real-time audio-visual feedback on actual TSD to IVT/IAT to caregivers.Methods and analysisARTEMIS is a multiregional, multicentre, randomised open end-point trial including patients ≥18 years considered IVT/IAT-eligible by the EMS dispatch office or on-site EMS personnel. Patients are electronically tracked and randomised for real-time audio-visual feedback on TSD to caregivers via premounted handhelds and tablets throughout the TSD trajectory. Primary outcome is TSD to IVT/IAT. Secondary outcomes comprise proportion of IVT/IAT-treated patients, symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage, IVT/IAT-treated stroke mimics, clinical outcome after three months and cost-effectiveness. Separate analyses for IAT-patients with or without prior IVT, within or out of office hours and EMS region will be performed. With 75 IAT-patients and 225 IVT-patients in each arm, we will be able to demonstrate a 20 min difference in TSD to IAT and a 10 min difference in TSD to IVT (p=0.05 and power=0.8).Ethics and disseminationStudy findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and (inter)national conference presentations.Trial registration numberNCT02808806

Background and Purpose— We systematically reviewed the literature on epidemiology, risk factors, presumed cause, clinical course, and outcome of perimesencephalic hemorrhage. Methods— PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched until March 2016. Quality assessment was done by 2 authors independently. Pooled prevalence ratios and pooled odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for data extracted from case–control studies. Results— We included 208 papers. The incidence of perimesencephalic hemorrhage is ≈0.5 per 100.000 person-years, men are more often affected, and no risk factors were confirmed. Two decision analyses both found that a single, high-quality computed tomography angiography is the preferred diagnostic approach. Short-term complications, such as hydrocephalus or cranial nerve palsies, are rare, and usually transient, with the exception of acute symptomatic hydrocephalus necessitating treatment in 3% of patients. Lacunar infarcts in the brain stem were convincingly described in 4 patients only. Fatal rebleeding after installment of anticoagulation in the initial days after the hemorrhage was described in 1 patient. At long-term follow-up, death related to the hemorrhage has not been reported, disability is found in 0% to 6%, and neuropsychological sequelae are suggested. Conclusions— A single, high-quality computed tomography angiography is the preferred diagnostic strategy. Short-term complications are rare and often transient. Long-term outcome is excellent with respect to disability and death, but high-quality studies focused at neuropsychological sequelae are needed.

Objectives Patients with acute headache increasingly undergo CT-angiography (CTA) to evaluate underlying vascular causes. The aim of this study is to determine clinical and non-contrast CT (NCCT) criteria to select patients who might benefit from CTA. Methods We retrospectively included patients with acute headache who presented to the emergency department of an academic medical center and large regional teaching hospital and underwent NCCT and CTA. We identified factors that increased the probability of finding a vascular abnormality on CTA, performed multivariable regression analyses and determined discrimination with the c-statistic. Results A total of 384 patients underwent NCCT and CTA due to acute headache. NCCT was abnormal in 194 patients. Among these, we found abnormalities in 116 cases of which 99 aneurysms. In the remaining 190 with normal NCCT we found abnormalities in 12 cases; four unruptured aneurysms, three cerebral venous thrombosis', two reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndromes, two cervical arterial dissections and one cerebellar infarction. In multivariable analysis abnormal NCCT, lowered consciousness and presentation within 6 hr of headache onset were independently associated with abnormal CTA. The c-statistic of abnormal NCCT alone was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.80), that also including the other two variables was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.88). If NCCT was normal no other factors could help identify patients at risk for abnormalities. Conclusions In patients with acute headache abnormal NCCT is the strongest predictor of a vascular abnormality on CTA. If NCCT is normal no other predictors increase the probability of finding an abnormality on CTA and diagnostic yield is low.

Background and Purpose— Induced hypertension is widely used to treat delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, but a literature review shows that its presumed effectiveness is based on uncontrolled case-series only. We here report clinical outcome of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients with DCI included in a randomized trial on the effectiveness of induced hypertension. Methods— Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients with clinical symptoms of DCI were randomized to induced hypertension or no induced hypertension. Risk ratios for poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score >3) at 3 months, with 95% confidence intervals, were calculated and adjusted for age, clinical condition at admission and at time of DCI, and amount of blood on initial computed tomographic scan with Poisson regression analysis. Results— The trial aiming to include 240 patients was ended, based on lack of effect on cerebral perfusion and slow recruitment, when 21 patients had been randomized to induced hypertension, and 20 patients to no hypertension. With induced hypertension, the adjusted risk ratio for poor outcome was 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.6–1.8) and the risk ratio for serious adverse events 2.1 (95% confidence interval, 0.9–5.0). Conclusions— Before this trial, the effectiveness of induced hypertension for DCI in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients was unknown because current literature consists only of uncontrolled case series. The results from our premature halted trial do not add any evidence to support induced hypertension and show that this treatment can lead to serious adverse events. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01613235.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access. Nearly three-quarters of the 143 genetic signals associated with platelet and erythrocyte phenotypes identified by meta-analyses of genome-wide association (GWA) studies are located at non-protein-coding regions. Here, we assessed the role of candidate regulatory variants associated with cell type-restricted, closely related hematological quantitative traits in biologically relevant hematopoietic cell types. We used formaldehyde-assisted isolation of regulatory elements followed by next-generation sequencing (FAIRE-seq) to map regions of open chromatin in three primary human blood cells of the myeloid lineage. In the precursors of platelets and erythrocytes, as well as in monocytes, we found that open chromatin signatures reflect the corresponding hematopoietic lineages of the studied cell types and associate with the cell type-specific gene expression patterns. Dependent on their signal strength, open chromatin regions showed correlation with promoter and enhancer histone marks, distance to the transcription start site, and ontology classes of nearby genes. Cell type-restricted regions of open chromatin were enriched in sequence variants associated with hematological indices. The majority (63.6%) of such candidate functional variants at platelet quantitative trait loci (QTLs) coincided with binding sites of five transcription factors key in regulating megakaryopoiesis. We experimentally tested 13 candidate regulatory variants at 10 platelet QTLs and found that 10 (76.9%) affected protein binding, suggesting that this is a frequent mechanism by which regulatory variants influence quantitative trait levels. Our findings demonstrate that combining large-scale GWA data with open chromatin profiles of relevant cell types can be a powerful means of dissecting the genetic architecture of closely related quantitative traits. Marie-Curie Initial Training Network NETSIM British Heart Foundation RG/09/12/28096 National Institutes for Health RP-PG-0310-1002 Wellcome Trust 098051 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282510

Background Magnesium treatment did not improve outcome in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage in the Magnesium in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Haemorrhage II trial. We hypothesized that high glucose levels may have offset a potential beneficial effect to prevent delayed cerebral ischemia. We investigated if magnesium treatment led to less delayed cerebral ischemia and if glucose levels interacted with magnesium treatment in the Magnesium in Aneurysmal Suba-rachnoid Haemorrhage II trial. Aim To investigate the effect of magnesium treatment on occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia and the interaction between glucose levels and magnesium treatment in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Methods The Magnesium in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Haemorrhage was a phase III randomized placebo-controlled trial assessing the effect of magnesium sulphate on clinical outcome in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. For the current study, we included only the patients admitted to the University Medical Centre-Utrecht. We calculated hazard ratios for occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia in patients treated with magnesium vs. placebo for the entire study population, and separately in the subgroups of patients with high and low mean fasting and mean daily glucose levels until onset of delayed cerebral ischemia. We used the cross-product of magnesium and glucose in the regression analysis to evaluate whether an interaction between magnesium and glucose existed. Results We included 616 patients: 307 received magnesium and 309 placebo; 156 patients had delayed cerebral ischemia. Hazard ratio for magnesium on occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia was 1.0 (95% confidence interval: 0.7-1.4). Results were similar in patients with low or high fasting or daily glucose levels. We found no interactions between magnesium treatment and high fasting ( P = 0.54) and daily glucose ( P = 0.60). Conclusions Magnesium treatment did not reduce the risk of delayed cerebral ischemia in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, nor was there an interaction with glucose levels. It is therefore unlikely that glucose levels explain the failure of magnesium to prevent delayed cerebral ischemia and poor outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Introduction About 15% of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor ischemic stroke have functional impairment after 3 months. We studied the role of whole brain computed tomography perfusion (WB-CTP) in the emergency diagnosis of TIA or minor stroke in predicting disability at 3 months. Methods We included patients with ongoing symptoms of a TIA or minor stroke with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score less than 4 who were evaluated with noncontrast CT (NCCT), CT angiography (CTA), and WB-CTP within 24 hours of symptom onset. Patients treated with thrombolysis or a premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score greater than 1 were excluded. The association between clinical or imaging features and disability (mRS score ≥2) at 3 months was analyzed with Poisson regression. Potential additional prognostic value of WB-CTP was assessed with logistic regression. Results We included 115 patients in 2012 to 2013. Median age was 68 years, and 66% were men. At 3 months, 20 patients (17%) were disabled. NIHSS score on admission (relative risk [RR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-9.3), female sex (RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.3), early ischemic changes on NCCT (RR, 5.0; 95% CI, 2.6-9.9), extracranial or intracranial vessel stenosis ≥50% on CTA (RR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.4-6.4), and perfusion abnormalities on WB-CTP (RR, 11.4; 95% CI, 4.6-28.2) were associated with disability at 3 months. In multivariable analysis, the relation between perfusion abnormalities and poor outcome remained essentially the same. WB-CTP showed prognostic value in addition to proved clinical and imaging predictors of disability. Conclusions WB-CTP is useful to identify patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke at high risk of functional impairment at 3-month follow-up.

Rationale In the first hours after stroke onset, subfebrile temperatures and fever have been associated with poor functional outcome. In the first Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Stroke trial, a randomized clinical trial of 1400 patients with acute stroke, patients who were treated with high-dose paracetamol showed more improvement on the modified Rankin Scale at three-months than patients treated with placebo, but this difference was not statistically significant. In the 661 patients with a baseline body temperature of 37·0°C or above, treatment with paracetamol increased the odds of functional improvement (odds ratio 1·43; 95% confidence interval: 1·02–1·97). This relation was also found in the patients with a body temperature of 36·5°C or higher (odds ratio 1·31; 95% confidence interval 1·01–1·68). These findings need confirmation. Aim The study aims to assess the effect of high-dose paracetamol in patients with acute stroke and a body temperature of 36·5°C or above on functional outcome. Design The Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke 2 trial is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. We use a power of 85% to detect a significant difference in the scores on the modified Rankin Scale of the paracetamol group compared with the placebo group at a level of significance of 0·05 and assume a treatment effect of 7%. Fifteen-hundred patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage and a body temperature of 36·5°C or above will be included within 12 h of symptom onset. Patients will be treated with paracetamol in a daily dose of six-grams or matching placebo for three consecutive days. The Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke 2 trial has been registered as NTR2365 in The Netherlands Trial Register. Study outcomes The primary outcome will be improvement on the modified Rankin Scale at three-months as analyzed by ordinal logistic regression. Discussion If high-dose paracetamol will be proven effective, a simple, safe, and extremely cheap therapy will be available for many patients with acute stroke worldwide.

Background and purpose We aimed to assess the safety, feasibility, and effects on glucose metabolism of treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance. Methods We performed a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label phase II trial with blinded outcome assessment. Patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke in the previous six months and impaired glucose tolerance (2-hour post-load glucose levels of 7.8–11.0 mmol/l) were randomized to metformin, in a daily dose of 2 g, or no metformin, for three months. Primary outcome measures were safety and feasibility of metformin, and the adjusted difference in 2-hour post-load glucose levels at three months. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 54960762. Results Forty patients were enrolled; 19 patients were randomly assigned metformin. Nine patients in the metformin group had side effects, mostly gastrointestinal, leading to permanent discontinuation in four patients after 3–10 weeks. Treatment with metformin was associated with a significant reduction in 2-hour post-load glucose levels of 0·97 mmol/l (95% CI 0·11–1·83) in the on-treatment analysis, but not in the intention-to-treat analysis (0·71 mmol/l; 95% CI −0·36 to 1·78). Conclusions Treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance is safe, but leads to minor side effects. If tolerated, it may lead to a significant reduction in post-load glucose levels. This suggests that the role of metformin as potential therapeutic agent for secondary stroke prevention should be further explored.

Background It is unclear whether the risk of bleeding from brain arteriovenous malformations is higher during pregnancy, delivery, or puerperium. We compared occurrence of brain arteriovenous malformation hemorrhage in women during this period with occurrence of hemorrhage outside this period during their fertile years. Methods We included all women with ruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (16–41 years) from a retrospective database of patients with brain arteriovenous malformations in four Dutch university hospitals (n = 95) and from the population-based Scottish Audit of Intracranial Vascular Malformations (n = 44). We estimated the relative rate of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture (before any treatment) during exposed time (pregnancy, delivery, puerperium) versus non-exposed time during fertile years, using the case-crossover design as primary analysis, and the self-controlled case-series design as secondary analysis. Results In 17 of 95 Dutch women and in 3 of 44 Scottish women, hemorrhages occurred while pregnant; none occurred during delivery or puerperium. In Dutch women, the relative rate of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture during pregnancy, delivery, or puerperium was 6.8 (95% confidence interval 3.6–13) according to the case-crossover method and 7.1 (95% confidence interval 3.4–13) using the self-controlled case-series method. In Scottish women, the relative rate was 1.3 (95% confidence interval 0.39–4.1) using the case-crossover method and 1.7 (95% confidence interval 0.0–4.4) according to the self-controlled case-series method. Because of limited overlap of confidence intervals, we refrained from pooling the cohorts. Conclusions Case-crossover and self-controlled case series analyses reveal an increase in relative rate of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture during pregnancy in the Dutch cohort but not in the Scottish cohort. Since point estimates varied between both cohorts and numbers are relatively small, the clinical implications of our findings are uncertain.

Background— Studies of recurrent or subsequent disease events may be susceptible to bias caused by selection of subjects who both experience and survive the primary indexing event. Currently, the magnitude of any selection bias, particularly for subsequent time-to-event analysis in genetic association studies, is unknown. Methods and Results— We used empirically inspired simulation studies to explore the impact of selection bias on the marginal hazard ratio for risk of subsequent events among those with established coronary heart disease. The extent of selection bias was determined by the magnitudes of genetic and nongenetic effects on the indexing (first) coronary heart disease event. Unless the genetic hazard ratio was unrealistically large (>1.6 per allele) and assuming the sum of all nongenetic hazard ratios was Conclusions— In most empirical settings, selection bias is expected to have a limited impact on genetic effect estimates of subsequent event risk. Nevertheless, because of undercoverage increasing with sample size, most confidence intervals will be over precise (not wide enough). When there is no effect modification by history of coronary heart disease, the false-positive rates of association tests will be close to nominal.

The aim of this study was to quantify the relation between classical risk factors (smoking, diabetes, BMI, waist circumference, blood pressure, and lipids), risk factor targets, and risk of recurrent major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (MACE). This was first done for recurrent MACE ≤65 years in patients aged 90 vs 70 to 90 mm Hg, HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.07), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≤1.0 vs >1.0 mmol/L, HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.76) were related to increased risk of recurrent MACE ≤65 years in patients aged 90 vs 70 to 90 mm Hg, HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.21), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (per mmol/L, HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.37), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (per mmol/L, HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.28) were related to recurrent MACE ≤2.5 years of follow-up. In conclusion, in patients with a recent cardiovascular event, smoking, blood pressure, and lipids are related to increased risk of recurrent cardiovascular events at young age or within a short time span, and intensive treatment of modifiable risk factors may contribute to prevent recurrent MACE in these patients.

Background and Purpose— Performance of risk scores for major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and a previous transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke is not well established. We aimed to validate risk scores for major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants after cerebral ischemia and explore the net benefit of oral anticoagulants among bleeding risk categories. Methods— We analyzed 3623 patients with a history of transient ischemic attack or stroke included in the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy). We assessed performance of HEMORR 2 HAGES (hepatic or renal disease, ethanol abuse, malignancy, older age, reduced platelet count or function, hypertension [uncontrolled], anemia, genetic factors, excessive fall risk, and stroke), Shireman, HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly), ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation), and ORBIT scores (older age, reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) with C statistics and calibration plots. Net benefit of oral anticoagulants was explored by comparing risk reduction in ischemic stroke with risk increase in major bleedings on warfarin. Results— During 6922 person-years of follow-up, 266 patients experienced a major bleed (3.8 per 100 person-years). C statistics ranged from 0.62 (Shireman) to 0.67 (ATRIA). Calibration was poor for ATRIA and moderate for other models. The reduction in recurrent ischemic strokes on warfarin was larger than the increase in major bleeding risk, irrespective of bleeding risk category. Conclusions— Performance of prediction models for major bleeding in patients with cerebral ischemia and atrial fibrillation is modest but comparable with performance in patients with only atrial fibrillation. Bleeding risk scores cannot guide treatment decisions for oral anticoagulants but may still be useful to identify modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Clinical usefulness may be best for ORBIT, which is based on a limited number of easily obtainable variables and showed reasonable performance.

Background Ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are increasingly recognized as heterogeneous diseases with distinct subtypes and etiologies. Information on variation in distribution of vascular risk factors according to age in stroke subtypes is limited. We investigated the prevalence of vascular risk factors in stroke subtypes in relation to age. Methods and Results We studied a prospective multicenter university hospital–based cohort of 4033 patients. For patients with ischemic stroke caused by large artery atherosclerosis, small vessel disease, or cardioembolism and for patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage or aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, we calculated prevalences of vascular risk factors in 4 age groups: Conclusions The prevalence of common cardiovascular risk factors shows different age‐specific patterns among various stroke subtypes. Recognition of these patterns may guide tailored stroke prevention efforts aimed at specific risk groups.

Objective:To develop a risk score that estimates 3-year and 5-year absolute risks for aneurysm growth.Methods:From 10 cohorts of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms and follow-up imaging, we pooled individual data on sex, population, age, hypertension, history of subarachnoid hemorrhage, and aneurysm location, size, aspect ratio, and shape but not on smoking during follow-up and family history of intracranial aneurysms in 1,507 patients with 1,909 unruptured intracranial aneurysms and used aneurysm growth as outcome. With aneurysm-based multivariable Cox regression analysis, we determined predictors for aneurysm growth, which were presented as a risk score to calculate 3-year and 5-year risks for aneurysm growth by risk factor status.Results:Aneurysm growth occurred in 257 patients (17%) and 267 aneurysms (14%) during 5,782 patient-years of follow-up. Predictors for aneurysm growth were earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, location of the aneurysm, age >60 years, population, size of the aneurysm, and shape of the aneurysm (ELAPSS). The 3-year growth risk ranged from 42% and the 5-year growth risk from 60%, depending on the risk factor status.Conclusions:The ELAPSS score consists of 6 easily retrievable predictors and can help physicians in decision making on the need for and timing of follow-up imaging in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

Background Space-occupying middle cerebral artery brain infarcts are associated with the development of brain edema, which may lead to cerebral herniation and death despite early hemicraniectomy. Aims To evaluate the benefit of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with space-occupying cerebral infarction treated with hemicraniectomy within 48 h of stroke onset. Methods Patients aged 18–60 years with space-occupying cerebral infarction treated with hemicraniectomy within 48 h and hypothermia (33–34°C) were selected from a single university hospital between 2001 and 2010 (n = 53). Patients treated with hemicraniectomy alone served as comparison group (n = 58), originating from three randomized controlled trials evaluating the effects of early decompressive surgery (DECIMAL, DESTINY, HAMLET). Primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin scale at 12 months dichotomized between modified Rankin scale 0–3 and modified Rankin scale 4–6. Secondary outcome measures were modified Rankin scale score 0–4 and survival. Risk ratios were adjusted with Poisson regression. Results Mean patient age was 48 years. Median time from stroke onset to hemicraniectomy was 23.5 h in both treatment groups. Treatment with hypothermia had no effect on the primary outcome (modified Rankin scale 0–3 versus 4–6 (13/53 (25%) versus 24/58 (41%)); adjusted risk ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.38–1.13). Fewer patients treated with hypothermia had a modified Rankin scale score of 0–4 (21/53 (40%) versus 42/58 (72%); adjusted risk ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.37–0.76) and fewer patients survived (26/53 (49%) versus 46/58 (79%); adjusted risk ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.44–0.82). Conclusions In patients with space-occupying cerebral infarction, treatment with hypothermia had no additional benefit on functional outcome compared with treatment with hemicraniectomy alone.