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Aims: We investigated the association between quantified metabolite, lipid and lipoprotein measures and incident heart failure hospitalisation (HFH) in the elderly, and examined whether circulating metabolic measures improve HFH prediction., Methods and Results: Overall, 80 metabolic measures from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial were measured by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 5341; 182 HFH events during 2.7-year follow-up). We repeated the work in FINRISK 1997 (n = 7330; 133 HFH events during 5-year follow-up). In PROSPER, the circulating concentrations of 13 metabolic measures were found to be significantly different in those who were later hospitalised for heart failure after correction for multiple comparisons. These included creatinine, phenylalanine, glycoprotein acetyls, 3-hydroxybutyrate, and various high-density lipoprotein measures. In Cox models, two metabolites were associated with risk of HFH after adjustment for clinical risk factors and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP): phenylalanine [hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.53; P = 0.002] and acetate (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.98; P = 0.026). Both were retained in the final model after backward elimination. Compared to a model with established risk factors and NT-proBNP, this model did not improve the C-index but did improve the overall continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0.21; 95% CI 0.06-0.35; P = 0.007) due to improvement in classification of non-cases (NRI 0.14; 95% CI 0.12-0.17; P < 0.001). Phenylalanine was replicated as a predictor of HFH in FINRISK 1997 (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; P = 0.023)., Conclusion: Our findings identify phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident HFH, although prediction gains are low. Further mechanistic studies appear warranted., (© 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Background: Observational studies suggest that the Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule can effectively 'rule out' and 'rule in' acute coronary syndromes (ACS) following a single blood test. In a pilot randomised controlled trial, we aimed to determine whether a large trial is feasible., Methods: Patients presenting to two EDs with suspected cardiac chest pain were randomised to receive care guided by the MACS decision rule (intervention group) or standard care (controls). The primary efficacy outcome was a successful discharge from the ED, defined as a decision to discharge within 4 hours of arrival providing that the patient did not have a missed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or develop a major adverse cardiac event (MACE: death, AMI or coronary revascularisation) within 30 days. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment and attrition rates., Results: In total, 138 patients were included between October 2013 and October 2014, of whom 131 (95%) were randomised (66 to intervention and 65 controls). Nine (7%) patients had prevalent AMI and six (5%) had incident MACE within 30 days. All 131 patients completed 30-day follow-up and were included in the final analysis with no missing data for the primary analyses. Compared with standard care, a significantly greater proportion of patients whose care was guided by the MACS rule were successfully discharged within 4 hours (26% vs 8%, adjusted OR 5.45, 95% CI 1.73 to 17.11, p=0.004). No patients in either group who were discharged within 4 hours had a diagnosis of AMI or incident MACE within 30 days (0.0%, 95% CI 0% to 20.0% in the intervention group)., Conclusions: In this pilot trial, use of the MACS rule led to a significant increase in safe discharges from the ED but a larger, fully powered trial remains necessary. Our findings seem to support the feasibility of that trial., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN 86818215., Research Ethics Committee Reference: 13/NW/0081., Ukcrn Registration Id: 14334., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RB has previously undertaken research involving donation of reagents without charge by Roche, Abbott, Alere, Siemens and Randox. His institution has received remuneration for research funded and/or sponsored by Roche, Abbott Point of Care, FABPulous BV, Abbott Laboratories, Portola, Novartis, Shire and Boehringer Ingelheim. He has accepted the provision of economy class travel and accommodation to present findings unrelated to this work at two Roche-sponsored conferences and at a scientific session sponsored by Randox., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital and incurs significant costs for health-care providers such as the UK NHS. Many preventative strategies and measures have been introduced to minimise CAUTI risk, including the use of antimicrobial catheters. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding their usefulness in terms of reducing symptomatic CAUTI, and whether or not they are cost-effective., Objectives: Do antimicrobial catheters reduce the rate of symptomatic urinary tract infection (UTI) during short-term hospital use and is their use cost-effective for the UK NHS?, Design: A pragmatic multicentre UK randomised controlled trial comparing three catheters as they would be used in the UK NHS: antimicrobial-impregnated (nitrofurazone) and antiseptic-coated (silver alloy) catheters with the standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-coated catheters. Economic evaluation used a decision model populated with data from the trial. Sensitivity analysis was used to explore uncertainty., Setting: Relevant clinical departments in 24 NHS hospitals throughout the UK., Participants: Adults requiring temporary urethral catheterisation for a period of between 1 and 14 days as part of their care, predominantly as a result of elective surgery., Interventions: Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to one of three types of urethral catheter in order to make the following pragmatic comparisons: nitrofurazone-impregnated silicone catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter; and silver alloy-coated hydrogel latex catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome for clinical effectiveness was the incidence of UTI at any time up to 6 weeks post randomisation. This was defined as any symptom reported during catheterisation, up to 3 days or 1 or 2 weeks post catheter removal or 6 weeks post randomisation combined with a prescription of antibiotics, at any of these times, for presumed symptomatic UTI. The primary economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Health-care costs were estimated from NHS sources with QALYs calculated from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D)., Results: Outcome analyses encompassed 6394 (90%) of 7102 participants randomised. The rate of symptomatic UTI within 6 weeks of randomisation was 10.6% in the nitrofurazone group (n = 2153; -2.1% absolute risk difference), 12.5% in the silver alloy group (n = 2097; -0.1% absolute risk difference) and 12.6% in the PTFE group (n = 2144). The effect size {odds ratio (OR) [97.5% confidence interval (CI)]} was 0.82 (97.5% CI 0.66 to 1.01) for nitrofurazone (p = 0.037) and 0.99 (97.5% CI 0.81 to 1.22) for silver alloy (p = 0.92) catheters. The nitrofurazone catheters were more likely to cause discomfort during use and on removal. The primary economic analysis suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters would be, on average, the least costly (> £7 less than PTFE) and most effective option at current NHS prices. There was a 73% chance that nitrofurazone would be cost saving and an 84% chance that the incremental cost per QALY would be < £30,000. At the trial price (£6.46), silver alloy catheters were very unlikely to be cost-effective. These results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses, although when the length of stay cost was excluded the incremental cost per QALY for nitrofurazone against PTFE was £28,602., Conclusions: The trial estimate of clinical effectiveness for nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters was less than the pre-specified minimum absolute risk difference that we considered important (-3.3%), and the surrounding CI included zero, indicating that any reduction in catheter-associated UTI was uncertain. Economic analysis, although associated with uncertainty, suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters may be cost-effective for the NHS. The trial ruled out the possibility that silver alloy-coated catheters might reach the pre-set degree of clinical effectiveness and that their use was unlikely to be cost-effective. These findings should be considered by patients, clinicians and health-care policy-makers to determine whether or not a change in practice is worthwhile. Future research should be aimed at determining the minimum clinically important difference in terms of CAUTI prevention in comparative trials, and to identify reliable methods which can detect the impact of the intervention on quality of life and other drivers of cost, when the intervention is a subsidiary part of overall treatment plans.