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In a cohort of 249 male sexual contacts of men with AIDS or an AIDS-related condition (ARC), 143 cohort members were seropositive on enrollment and 16 seroconverted during follow-up. A logistic Weibull mixture model was used to estimate the probability of progression to AIDS after HIV infection when infection was assumed to occur during the period of sexual contact with the primary case. Forty cohort members developed AIDS while under study. It appears that at least 50% of men with HIV disease will progress to AIDS and that the best estimate of this probability lies anywhere in the interval 70% to 100%.

Testing saliva for the detection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies has many potential advantages for epidemiologic surveillance. A commercial ELISA kit and a standardized in-house immunoblot (IB) system were slightly modified to enhance antibody detection in saliva. Frozen saliva specimens from Toronto Sexual Contact Study participants (including sequential saliva specimens collected during seroconversion) were tested as were fresh saliva samples collected from a population of street-based intravenous drug users (IVDUs). HIV antibody results on saliva were compared with HIV serostatus determined by ELISA and IB on serum or dried blood spots. The overall sensitivity was 98.3% (117/119) for the kit and 99.2% (118/119) for IB; the specificity was 100% (429/429). In the IVDU population, compliance in the voluntary submission of specimens increased from 69% agreeing to provide blood samples to 89% agreeing to provide blood, saliva, or both. Saliva specimens can be easily collected under difficult field conditions with minimal training and provide a valuable alternative to testing blood for HIV-seroprevalence studies.

As part of a prospective study in Toronto, Canada of male sexual contacts of men with either acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or an AIDS-related condition (primary cases), separate interviews were conducted in 1984-1985 with primary cases and their corresponding sexual contacts. Seventy-five primary cases and their corresponding sexual contacts were asked details concerning the sexual activities involved in their sexual encounters. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for the responses regarding frequency of various sexual activities between the primary case and his corresponding contact. Comparison of responses revealed good to excellent correlations for the majority of the sexual activities. Regression analysis of responses (dependent variable = contact's response; independent variable = primary's response) revealed the tendency for primary cases to report greater numbers of various activities than sexual contacts, as illustrated by regression coefficients that were consistently less than unity. Agreement between primary responses and sexual contact responses appeared to be affected by the time lapsed from the last sexual encounter with the contact and the date of the primary case's interview. No effect on agreement was observed when primary case diagnosis and the total number of other sexual partners of primary cases were considered. The authors conclude that such data can be captured with sufficient reliability and validity for use in epidemiologic investigations to assess the risk of acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus for the more common forms of sexual activity. However, some caution may be necessary in interpreting the results for some activities (anal digit insertion, anilingus) since agreement is less satisfactory for these activities.

A total of 246 healthy male sexual contacts of men with either acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or an AIDS-related condition were recruited into a prospective study in Toronto, Canada between July 1984 and July 1985. At induction, data were collected on the sexual relationship between the contact and his primary case, sexual activities with other men, history of sexually transmitted diseases and other diseases, and use of recreational drugs. At recruitment, 144 sexual contacts had antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); 102 of the contacts were seronegative at induction and at three months following recruitment. No association between HIV seropositivity and total number of sexual partners could be demonstrated. In univariate and multivariate analyses, receptive and insertive anal intercourse with the primary cases, and activities which either indicated or potentially caused anorectal mucosal injury (rectal douching, perianal bleeding, receipt of objects in ano, and receptive fisting) were strongly associated with HIV seropositivity. In the final multiple logistic regression model, two significant interaction effects were observed: the interaction between receptive anal intercourse and insertive anal intercourse and that between receptive anal intercourse and the anorectal mucosal injury index. These two interaction terms had negative regression coefficients which suggested that change in one sexual activity would not decrementally reduce risk of HIV infection without a comparable modification in the other activity. No association could be demonstrated between oral-genital and oral-anal sexual contact and odds ratios for these sexual activities declined to levels below 1.0 when adjusted for frequency of receptive anal intercourse.