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Although medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults are closely related, providing rigorous statistical analysis for their dynamic relationship is challenging. In this research, we propose a novel approach using the panel vector autoregression model to reveal the realized patterns of the interdependence. As an empirical application, we analyze monthly panel data on individuals in a city of Japan, where social insurance covers many formal services for long-term care. Our estimation results indicate the existence of intertemporal transition from expensive acute medical care to reasonable at-home medical care, then to at-home long-term care. Under this context, the enhancement of formal long-term care sector in Japan might have played an important role in the suppression of the total care cost in spite for its rapid aging over the past 2 decades. Additionally, we find that daycare plays multiple roles in Japanese long-term care, such as respite and rehabilitation, but there is no considerable transition from outpatient rehabilitation to daycare in the long-term care sector., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)