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Background: Limited treatment options have been available for people with HIV who have had virological failure of the three original classes of HIV antiretroviral drugs-so-called triple-class virological failure (TCVF). However, introduction of new drugs and drug classes might have improved outcomes. We aimed to assess trends in virological and clinical outcomes for individuals with TCVF in 2000-09., Methods: In our cohort study, we analysed data for adults starting antiretroviral therapy from 1998 in cohorts participating in the PLATO II project, which is part of COHERE, a collaboration of European cohorts. TCVF was defined as virological failure to at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, and one ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, with virological failure of a drug defined as one viral-load measurement of greater than 500 copies per mL after at least 4 months of continuous use. We used multivariable generalised estimating equation logistic models and Poisson regression models to study trends in virological suppression and incidence of AIDS or death after TCVF. We adjusted for sex, transmission group, age, AIDS status, CD4 cell count, plasma viral loads at TCVF, achievement of virological response (<50 copies per mL), and number of drug failures before TCVF., Findings: 28 of 33 cohorts in COHERE contributed data to the PLATO II project, of which four had no participants eligible for inclusion in this study. 2476 (3%) of 91 764 participants from the remaining 24 cohorts had TCVF and at least one viral load measurement in 2000-09. The proportion of patients with virological response after TCVF increased from 19·5% in 2000 to 57·9% in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Incidence of AIDS decreased from 7·7 per 100 person-years in 2000-02 to 2·3 in 2008 and 1·2 in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Mortality decreased from 4·0 per 100 person-years between 2000 and 2002 to 1·9 in 2007 and 1·4 in 2008 (unadjusted p=0·023), but the trend was not significant after adjustment (p=0·22)., Interpretation: A substantial improvement in viral load suppression and accompanying decrease in the rates of AIDS in people after extensive failure to drugs from the three original antiretroviral classes during 2000-09 was probably mainly driven by availability of newer drugs with better tolerability and ease of use and small cross-resistance profiles, suggesting the public health benefit of the introduction of new drugs., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Estimating the prevalence of accumulated HIV drug resistance in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult due to lack of resistance testing at all occasions of virological failure and in patients with undetectable viral load. A method to estimate this for 6498 EuroSIDA patients who were under follow-up on ART at 1 July 2008 was therefore developed by imputing data on patients with no prior resistance test results, based on the probability of detecting resistance in tested patients with similar profiles., Methods: Using all resistance test results available, predicted intermediate/high-level resistance to specific drug classes [nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs)] was derived using the Stanford algorithm v5.1.2. Logistic regression models were then employed to estimate predicted probability of resistance to each drug class for given values of current viral load, history of virological failure and previous virological suppression. Based on these predicted probabilities and patients' covariate profiles, estimates of prevalence in 5355 patients with no prior test results were obtained. Overall prevalence of resistance was estimated by pooling these data with those observed in the remaining 1143 tested patients., Results: Prevalence of NRTI, NNRTI and PI resistance was estimated as 43% (95% confidence interval: 39%-46%), 15% (13%-18%) and 25% (22%-28%), respectively., Conclusions: This method provides estimates for the proportion of treated patients in a cohort who harbour resistance on a given date, which are less likely to be affected by selection bias due to missing resistance data and will allow us to estimate prevalence of resistance to different drug classes at specific timepoints in HIV-infected populations on ART.

Objectives: To investigate prevalence of transmitted drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus (TDR) and factors associated with TDR and to compare virological and CD4 count response to combination antiretroviral therapy., Methods: In this study, 525 mostly chronically infected EuroSIDA patients were included who had genotypic resistance tests performed on plasma samples collected while antiretroviral therapy naive. TDR was defined as at least one resistance mutation from a list proposed for genotypic TDR surveillance. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze factors associated with detection of TDR, with virological (viral load<500 copies/mL) and CD4 count response (>or=50% increase) to combination antiretroviral therapy at months 6-12., Results: The overall prevalence of TDR was 11.4%, which was stable over 1996-2004. There were no significant differences in virological suppression (those resistant to at least one drug prescribed versus susceptible), adjusted odds ratio: 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.27 to 1.71; P=0.408) or CD4 count response, adjusted odds ratio: 1.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 3.73; P=0.231)., Conclusions: Prevalence of TDR in antiretroviral-naive patients was found to be in line with other European studies. No significant differences were found in virological and CD4 count response after initiation of first-line combination antiretroviral therapy between resistant and susceptible patients, possibly due to the small number of patients with resistance and consequently low power.

Background: A method has been developed to estimate a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under treatment selective pressure as a function of the genotypic sequence thereby also estimating the genetic barrier to resistance., Methods: We evaluated the performance of two estimated fitness landscapes (nelfinavir [NFV] and zidovudine [AZT] plus lamivudine [3TC]) to predict week 12 viral load (VL) change for 176 treatment change episodes (TCEs) and probability of week 48 virological failure for 90 TCEs, in treatment experienced patients starting these drugs in combination., Results: A higher genetic barrier for AZT plus 3TC, (quantified per additional mutation required to develop resistance against these drugs) was associated with a 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.77) larger log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks (P < 0.0001) and a 0.39 (95%/ CI 0.23-0.66) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks (P = 0.0005), in analyses adjusting for the pre-TCE VL and the exact time-lag between the TCE and the date of determining response VL. The strength of these associations was comparable with those seen with expert interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVDB). A higher genetic barrier to NFV resistance was the only genotypic predictor that tended to be associated with a 0.19 (95% CI 0-0.39) higher log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks (P = 0.05) and a 0.63 (95% CI 0.36-1.09) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P = 0.10) per additional mutation., Conclusions: These results suggest that an estimated genetic barrier derived from fitness landscapes may contribute to an improvement of predicted treatment outcome for NFV and this approach should be explored for other drugs.

Background: : Limited information exists on the prognostic value of genotypic interpretation systems (GISs) for ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (PI/rs). We compared PI/r resistance levels ascribed by four GIS and examined their abilities to predict HIV-RNA reductions after starting a PI/r-based regimen (baseline)., Methods: : Data on viraemic (HIV-RNA > 500 copies/ml) patients starting a PI/r with a baseline resistance test were combined from an observational cohort study (EuroSIDA) and three randomized trials (MaxCmin1; MaxCmin2 and COLATE). The GIS surveyed were ANRS, DMC, REGA and Stanford. Factors associated with HIV-RNA change were identified through censored regression analysis., Results: : We included 744 patients, of whom 67% were PI experienced. At baseline 12-28% (depending on the GIS) patients had a virus with predicted resistance/intermediate resistance to the PI/r initiated. Concordance between GISs on ascribed PI/r resistance levels was moderate: kappa values ranged from 0.01 to 1.00, with the lowest kappas seen for amprenavir. The median (interquartile range) baseline HIV-RNA was 4.4 (3.5-5.1) log10 and was reduced by 2.2 (2.1-2.3) log10 12 (9-13) weeks after baseline. GIS consistently showed greater HIV-RNA reductions as the ascribed level of sensitivity to the PI/r increased. Conversely, the number of other active drugs in the rest of the regimen, according to each GIS did not predict HIV-RNA reductions consistently., Conclusion: : Despite large variations in how GIS classify HIV susceptibility to PI/r, all GIS predicted HIV-RNA reductions of a similar magnitude. The ascribed level of susceptibility to other drugs in the regimen did not predict HIV-RNA decline.

Background: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) may vary in ability to suppress viral load and increase CD4+ T-cell count in people infected with different HIV-1 subtypes, possibly due to differences in resistance development. Antiretroviral drugs have predominantly been developed in Western Europe/North America on the basis of the most prevalent subtype, B. However, non-B subtypes are increasingly spreading worldwide., Objective: To compare virological and immunological response to cART between patients infected with B and non-B subtypes across Europe., Design: EuroSIDA prospective, observational cohort with 11,928 HIV-1-infected patients., Methods: Response to cART was analysed in patients with subtypes determined pre-cART, via multivariable logistic regression on the first measurements 6-12 months after starting cART. A virological response was defined as a viral load <500 copies/mi and immunological response as a CD4+ T-cell count increase of > or =100 cells/mm(3)., Results: Forty-five percent of patients were antiretroviral naive at initiation of cART. Virological suppression was achieved by 58% of 689 subtype-B-infected patients and 66% of 102 non-B-infected patients (P=0.159). After adjustment for potential confounders, there was no significant difference in odds of achieving virological suppression (non-B compared with B; odds ratio [OR]: 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-1.93, P=0.866). An immunological response was achieved by 43% of 753 B-infected patients and 48% of 114 non-B-infected patients (P=0.334). After adjustment, there was no significant difference in odds of an immunological response (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 0.73-1.87, P=0.524)., Conclusions: There was no evidence of significant differences in virological or immunological response to cART between patients infected with HIV-1 B and non-B subtypes.

Objectives: To investigate the ability of several HIV-1 drug-resistance interpretation systems, as well as the number of pre-specified combinations of abacavir-related mutations, to predict virological response to abacavir-containing regimens in antiretroviral therapy-experienced, abacavir-naive patients starting an abacavir-containing regimen in the EuroSIDA cohort., Patients and Methods: A total of 100 HIV-infected patients with viral load (VL) >500 copies/ml who had a plasma sample available at the time of starting abacavir (baseline) were included. Resistance to abacavir was interpreted by using eight different commonly used systems that consisted of rules-based algorithms or tables of mutations. Correlation between baseline abacavir-resistance mutations and month 6 virological response was performed on this population using a multivariable linear regression model accounting for censored data., Results: The baseline VL was 4.36 log10 RNA copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR): 3.65-4.99 log10 RNA copies/ml] and the median CD4 cell count was 210 cells/microl (IQR: 67-305 cells/microl). Our patients were pre-exposed to a median of seven antiretrovirals (2-12) before starting abacavir therapy. The median (range) number of abacavir mutations (according to the International AIDS Society-USA) detected at baseline was 3.5 (0-8). Overall, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the median month 6 VL decline was 0.86 log10 RNA copies/ml [95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.45-1.24]. The VL in those patients (n=31) who intensified treatment by adding only abacavir decreased by a median 0.20 log10 RNA copies/ml (95% CI: -0.18; +0.94). The proportion of patients who harboured viruses fully resistant to abacavir among the eight genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms ranged from 12% [Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA (ANRS)] to 79% [Stanford HIV RT and PR Sequence Database (HIVdb)]. Some interpretation systems showed statistically significant associations between the predicted resistance status and the virological response while others showed no consistent association. The number of active drugs in the regimen was associated with greater virological suppression (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional sensitive drug=0.51, 95% CI: 0.15-0.88, P=0.006); baseline VL was also weakly associated (additional month 6 VL reduction per log10 higher=0.30, 95% CI: -0.02; +0.62, P=0.06). In contrast, the number of drugs previously received was associated with diminished viral reduction (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional drug=-0.14, 95% CI: -0.28; 0.00, P=0.05)., Conclusions: Our results revealed a high degree of variability among several genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms currently in use for abacavir. Therefore, the interpretation of genotypic resistance for predicting response to regimens containing abacavir remains a major challenge.

BackgroundWe compared Kaposi sarcoma (KS) risk in adults who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) across the Asia-Pacific, South Africa, Europe, Latin, and North America.MethodsWe included cohort data of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive adults who started ART after 1995 within the framework of 2 large collaborations of observational HIV cohorts. We present incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).ResultsWe included 208140 patients from 57 countries. Over a period of 1066572 person-years, 2046 KS cases were diagnosed. KS incidence rates per 100000 person-years were 52 in the Asia-Pacific and ranged between 180 and 280 in the other regions. KS risk was 5 times higher in South African women (aHR, 4.56; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 2.73-7.62) than in their European counterparts, and 2 times higher in South African men (2.21; 1.34-3.63). In Europe, Latin, and North America KS risk was 6 times higher in men who have sex with men (aHR, 5.95; 95% CI, 5.09-6.96) than in women. Comparing patients with current CD4 cell counts ≥700 cells/µL with those whose counts were