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Background: It is unclear whether there are differences between men and women with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in the plasma level of viral RNA (the viral load). In men, the initial viral load after seroconversion predicts the likelihood of progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), but the relation between the two has not been assessed in women. Currently, the guidelines for initiating antiretroviral therapy are applied uniformly to women and men., Methods: From 1988 through 1998, the viral load and the CD4+ lymphocyte count were measured approximately every six months in 156 male and 46 female injection-drug users who were followed prospectively after HIV-1 seroconversion., Results: The median initial viral load was 50,766 copies of HIV-1 RNA per milliliter in the men but only 15,103 copies per milliliter in the women (P<0.001). The median initial CD4+ count did not differ significantly according to sex (659 and 672 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively). HIV-1 infection progressed to AIDS in 29 men and 15 women, and the risk of progression did not differ significantly according to sex. For each increase of 1 log in the viral load (on a base 10 scale), the hazard ratio for progression to AIDS was 1.55 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.97 to 2.47) among the men and 1.43 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.76 to 2.69) among the women. The median initial viral load was 77,822 HIV-1 RNA copies per milliliter in the men in whom AIDS developed and 40,634 copies per milliliter in the men in whom it did not; the corresponding values in the women were 17,149 and 12,043 copies per milliliter. Given the recommendation that treatment should be initiated when the viral load reaches 20,000 copies per milliliter, 74 percent of the men but only 37 percent of the women in our study would have been eligible for therapy at the first visit after seroconversion (P<0.001)., Conclusions: Although the initial level of HIV-1 RNA was lower in women than in men, the rates of progression to AIDS were similar. Treatment guidelines that are based on the viral load, rather than the CD4+ lymphocyte count, will lead to differences in eligibility for antiretroviral treatment according to sex.

Objective: To assess patterns of morbidity and associated factors in late infancy and early childhood among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and -uninfected African children., Design: Prospective study., Setting: The Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi., Participants: Children with known HIV status from an earlier perinatal intervention trial were enrolled during the first year of life and followed to approximately 36 months of age., Outcome Measures: Morbidity and mortality information was collected every 3 months by a questionnaire. A physical examination was conducted every 6 months. Blood to determine CD4(+) values was also collected. Age-adjusted and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed to compare rates of morbidity and mortality among infected and uninfected children., Results: Overall, 808 children (190 HIV-infected, 499 HIV-uninfected but born to infected mothers, and 119 born to HIV-uninfected mothers) were included in this study. Of these, 109 died during a median follow-up of 18 months. Rates of childhood immunizations were high among all children (eg, lowest was measles vaccination [87%] among HIV-infected children). Age-adjusted morbidity rates were significantly higher among HIV-infected than among HIV-uninfected children. HIV-infected children were more immunosuppressed than were uninfected children. By 3 years of age, 89% of the infected children died, 10% were in HIV disease category B or C, and only approximately 1% were without HIV symptoms. Among HIV-infected children, median survival after the first occurrence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related conditions, such as splenomegaly, oral thrush, and developmental delay, was <10 months. These same conditions, in addition to frequent bouts of fever, were the main morbidity predictors of mortality., Conclusions: The frequency of diseases was high, and progression from asymptomatic or symptomatic HIV disease to death was rapid. Management strategies that effectively reduce morbidity for HIV-infected children are needed.

Background: HIV-infected and uninfected children who survived their first year of life were prospectively followed in Malawi to assess levels of mortality and related risk factors during the second and third years of life., Methods: Children with known HIV status from an earlier perinatal intervention trial were enrolled. These children [HIV-infected (Group A); HIV-uninfected but born to HIV-seropositive mothers (Group B); and children born to HIV-seronegative mothers (Group C)] were followed every 3 months until age 36 months. Mortality data were collected at each visit. Immunologic data (CD4+ percent) were collected at or immediately after enrollment., Results: Overall 702 children were enrolled and 83 children died during follow-up. The mortality rate per 1000 person years of observation was 339.3 among Group A children, 46.3 among Group B children and 35.7 among Group C children. Among HIV-infected children the cumulative proportion surviving to age 24 months was 70% and those surviving to age 36 months was 55%. By age 32 months none of the severely immunosuppressed (CD4% < 15%) children had survived. The mortality differentials between HIV-infected and uninfected children persisted after adjusting for several risk factors. The major causes of death among infected children (n = 52) were wasting and respiratory conditions., Conclusions: Although all HIV-infected children had received childhood immunizations, mortality was high. Management of these children should include aggressive antimicrobial treatment, and evaluation of prophylactic regimens should be considered.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 load in breast milk and mastitis were examined as risk factors for vertical transmission of HIV-1. Six weeks after delivery, HIV-1 load and sodium (an indicator of mastitis) were measured in breast milk from 334 HIV-1-infected women in Malawi. Median breast milk HIV-1 load was 700 copies/mL among women with HIV-1-infected infants versus undetectable (<200 copies/mL) among those with uninfected infants, respectively (P<. 0001). Elevated breast milk sodium levels consistent with mastitis occurred in 16.4% of HIV-1-infected women and were associated with increased vertical transmission of HIV-1 (P<.0001). Median breast milk HIV-1 load was 920 copies/mL among women with versus undetectable among those without elevated breast milk sodium levels, respectively (P<.0001). Mastitis and breast milk HIV-1 load may increase the risk of vertical transmission of HIV-1 through breast-feeding.

Background: Host genetic factors, such as HLA alleles, play an important role in mediating the course of HIV-1 disease progression through largely undefined mechanisms., Objectives: To examine the association of HLA markers with HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load and other factors associated with course of disease progression in HIV-1 infection., Design and Methods: A group of 139 HIV-1 seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study had been typed for a variety of HLA markers. HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load was measured from frozen plasma specimens obtained approximately 9 months following seroconversion. CD4+ cell counts were available from the same study visit. Statistical analysis was performed using survival techniques and linear regression models to quantify the relative associations of an HLA score profile, HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load, CD4+ cell count and age with each other and with rate of progression to AIDS and death., Results: Cox proportional hazards models showed statistically significant differences in time to AIDS by HLA score profile category per unit increase [relative hazard (RH), 0.64; P < 0.0001], HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load per 10-fold increase (RH, 2.04; P = 0.0003), and CD4+ cell count per 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase (RH, 0.90; P = 0.02). Multivariate linear regression showed that viral load was 39% lower (P = 0.0001) for each unit increase in HLA score profile and 13% lower (P = 0.002) for each 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase in CD4+ cell count., Conclusion: The means by which the HLA score profile influences the time to AIDS is probably through immunologic responses that affect the rate of HIV-1 replication, as manifested by the HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load during the first 6-12 months following acute infection.

Background: Plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements are used for initiation of antiretroviral treatments. Whether the viral-load association with prognosis is similar in women and men is unknown., Methods: We studied 812 specimens from 650 injection-drug users (IDUs) participating in a continuous observational study of patients based in a community clinic. HIV-1 load was measured by branched-chain DNA on samples from 527 IDUs from the baseline visit, and by reverse-transcriptase PCR and quantitative microculture on samples from 285 IDUs at a follow-up visit 3 years later. FNDINGS: Women had lower median viral-load measurements than men by branched-chain DNA (3365 vs 8907 copies/mL; p=0.001), reverse-transcriptase PCR (45416 vs 93130 copies/mL; p=0.02), and quantitative microculture (5 vs 8 infectious units per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells; p=0.015). This association remained even after adjustment for CD4 cell count, race, and drug use within the previous 6 months. Time to AIDS was statistically similar for men and women in a univariate proportional-hazards model and in a model adjusting for CD4 cell count. Proportional-hazards models showed that women with the same viral load as men had a 1.6-fold higher risk of AIDS (95% CI 1.10-2.32); or, equivalently, that women with half the viral load of men had a similar time to AIDS as men., Interpretation: Although a biological mechanism remains unclear, these data suggest that current recommendations for HIV-1 viral-load thresholds to initiate antiretroviral therapy should be revised downwards for women.

Background: Cross-sectional studies suggest an association between bacterial vaginosis (BV) and HIV-1 infection. However, an assessment of a temporal effect was not possible., Objectives: To determine the association of BV and other disturbances of vaginal flora with HIV seroconversion among pregnant and postnatal women in Malawi, Africa., Design: Longitudinal follow-up of pregnant and postpartum women., Methods: Women attending their first antenatal care visit were screened for HIV after counselling and obtaining informed consent. HIV-seronegative women were enrolled and followed during pregnancy and after delivery. These women were again tested for HIV at delivery and at 6-monthly visits postnatally. Clinical examinations and collection of laboratory specimens (for BV and sexually transmitted diseases) were conducted at screening and at the postnatal 6-monthly visits. The diagnosis of BV was based on clinical criteria. Associations of BV and other risk factors with HIV seroconversion, were examined using contingency tables and multiple logistic regression analyses on antenatal data, and Kaplan-Meier proportional hazards analyses on postnatal data., Results: Among 1196 HIV-seronegative women who were followed antenatally for a median of 3.4 months, 27 women seroconverted by time of delivery. Postnatally, 97 seroconversions occurred among 1169 seronegative women who were followed for a median of 2.5 years. Bacterial vaginosis was significantly associated with antenatal HIV seroconversion (adjusted odds ratio = 3.7) and postnatal HIV seroconversion (adjusted rate ratio = 2.3). There was a significant trend of increased risk of HIV seroconversion with increasing severity of vaginal disturbance among both antenatal and postnatal women. The approximate attributable risk of BV alone was 23% for antenatal HIV seroconversions and 14% for postnatal seroconversions., Conclusions: This prospective study suggests that progressively greater disturbances of vaginal flora, increase HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postnatally. The screening and treating of women with BV could restore normal flora and reduce their susceptibility to HIV.

Objectives: To examine rates of HIV-1 and sexually transmitted disease (STD) among pregnant and postpartum women in urban Malawi, Africa., Design: Serial cross-sectional surveys and a prospective study., Methods: Three major surveys were conducted in 1990, 1993 and 1994/1995. Consecutive first-visit antenatal women and women giving birth at the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital were tested for HIV and STD after counseling and obtaining informed consent. Unlinked, anonymous HIV testing was also conducted on smaller samples of antenatal women in the same hospital to provide annual prevalence data. HIV-seronegative postpartum women from the 1990 and 1993 surveys were enrolled in a prospective study to determine HIV incidence., Results: HIV seroprevalence rose from 2.0% in 1985 to 32.8% in 1996, a 16-fold increase. The highest age-specific HIV prevalence was in the following age-groups: 20-24 years during 1990, 25-29 years during 1993, and 30-34 years during 1996. Among 1173 women followed for a median of 30.9 months, HIV incidence was 5.98 per 100 person-years in women aged < 20 years and declined steadily in older women. The prevalence of STD significantly declined among both HIV-positive and negative women. This decline in STD prevalence, however, was not accompanied by increased condom use over time., Conclusions: Among urban childbearing women in Malawi, incidence of HIV is highest among young women while, currently, prevalence is highest among older women. Recent declines in STD prevalence suggest that HIV prevention programs are having an impact either through improved STD diagnosis and treatment or reduced risk behaviors. Sequential cross-sectional STD prevalence measures may be useful in monitoring effectiveness of STD and HIV prevention activities.

Objectives: To assess the relationship between various injecting drug use patterns and the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline in HIV-1-infected injecting drug users in Baltimore, Maryland, USA., Methods: A cohort of 605 HIV-1-infected injecting drug users was recruited between 1988 and early 1989 in East Baltimore using extensive community outreach techniques. The participants were interviewed semi-annually to collect information on drug use practices. The outcome measure of interest was the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline between pairs of CD4+ lymphocyte counts. A mixed model was used to evaluate the relationship between the change in CD4+ lymphocyte count per month and previous CD4+ lymphocyte count and various drug use variables., Results: The 605 HIV-infected injecting drug users had a median initial CD4+ lymphocyte count of 513 cells x 10(6)/l. Using 3209 paired observations, the mean change in CD4+ lymphocyte count was -3.2 cells x 10(6)/l per month. The rate of decline was higher in those with a higher level of CD4+ lymphocytes (P < 0.01) and length of drug use (P < 0.01), but did not vary by injection frequency or injection intensity of specific drug types. Although animal studies have suggested that the pattern of drug administration (continuous versus intermittent) and episodes of withdrawal or overdose might impact the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline, this was not observed in the present study., Conclusion: Patterns of injecting drug use, based on self-report, were not associated with the rate of decline in CD4+ lymphocytes.

To determine if vaccination induces replication of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), 42 HIV-1-infected subjects with CD4 cell counts of 200-500 cells/microL were randomized to receive influenza vaccine or saline placebo. Infectious cell-associated and plasma HIV-1 RNA virus load were measured twice at baseline and then at 7, 10, 14, and 30 days after injection by quantitative microculture and branched DNA amplification. The ratios of the geometric mean plasma HIV-1 load of the four follow-up visits compared with baseline in vaccine (n = 28) and placebo (n = 14) recipients were similar (1.05 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.37] for vaccine; 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.33] for placebo; P = .90). The geometric mean ratios of plasma virus load at each follow-up visit to baseline did not differ significantly from 1.0 for each group. Infectious cell-associated virus load measures yielded similar results. CD4 cell counts declined similarly in both groups at 6 months. Influenza vaccination did not increase HIV-1 load in this controlled clinical trial.

Objective: To determine whether racial differences exist in the rate of CD4 lymphocyte decline in HIV-1-infected homosexual men., Design: Prospective cohort study., Study Population: Non-Hispanic white (n = 321) and black (n = 102) HIV-1-seropositive homosexual and bisexual men were recruited from the Baltimore/Washington, DC metropolitan areas between 1984-1985 and 1987-1990, and evaluated semiannually., Main Measurements: Changes in CD4 lymphocyte count and CD4 percentage over time were analysed using linear regression methods for the 271 white and 69 black participants who had at least four semiannual CD4 lymphocyte measurements., Results: Rate of decline in CD4 lymphocyte count over 6 months was much slower among black than white seroprevalent men at all levels of baseline CD4 count (baseline 201-400 x 10(6)/l: + 0.24 versus -17.7 x 10(6)/l; 401-600 x 10(6)/l: -11.3 versus -23.9 x 10(6)/l; 601-800 x 10(6)/l: -15.1 versus -35.2 x 10(6)/l; > 800 x 10(6)/l: -4.3 versus -42.7 x 10(6)/l for black versus white, respectively), although this was only statistically significant for the lowest and highest strata of baseline CD4 count. These racial differences persisted after adjustment for recruitment period (1984-1985 or 1987-1990), follow-up duration, age and zidovudine therapy or Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis. Similar findings were observed among the 70 white and 11 black seroconverters. Black participants were also less likely than a subgroup of white participants matched on baseline CD4 lymphocyte count to be HIV-1 p24 antigen-positive. However, after acid dissociation of samples initially p24 antigen-negative, there were no significant differences in the prevalence of p24 antigenemia at enrollment or after 1 year of follow-up., Conclusions: This analysis suggests a more gradual decline in CD4 lymphocyte count among black than white Americans. The clinical significance of and reasons for this are unclear, but the lower prevalence of p24 antigenemia due to immune complexing among black Americans suggests that racial differences in the immune response to HIV may exist. Additional studies are needed to validate these findings in a larger cohort of non-whites, and to assess their relationship with other measures of cell-mediated immune function.

Objective: To estimate the incidence and prevalence of cytomegalovirus retinitis (CMV-R) in late-stage human immunodeficiency virus type 1 disease., Design: Cohort study., Setting: The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, an ongoing 10-year study of human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected homosexual men with semiannual visits and CD4+ cell testing., Study Participants: Three hundred sixty-seven human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected men from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study who were receiving zidovudine and Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis and who had CD4+ cell counts fall below 0.10 x 10(9)/L (100/microL)., Main Outcome Measures: Kaplan-Meier-type estimates for various longitudinal quantifications of incidence and prevalence of CMV-R were obtained., Results: Among these 367 individuals, cytomegalovirus disease developed in 103, of whom 73 (71%) had ocular complications. At 4 years after the first CD4 cell count ( < 0.10 x 10(9)/L), the probability for these subjects to have (1) remained living without CMV-R was 11%, (2) died without experiencing CMV-R was 66%, (3) experienced CMV-R and be living was 6%, and (4) experienced CMV-R and died was 18%. During these 4 years, there was a 25% chance for the development of CMV-R and, on average, 0.211 person-years of CMV-R morbidity. Among those subjects in whom CMV-R developed, about 19% did have CMV-R before a CD4+ cell count of less than 0.05 x 10(9)/L ( < 50/microL) was observed, and 81% had CMV-R after the CD4+ cell count reached this threshold., Conclusion: These estimates may be relevant to current clinical practice and help in allocating resources and planning for treatment and prophylaxis against cytomegalovirus disease.

Projection disease incidence, prevalence, and net morbidity is often needed when individuals are likely to die, either disease free or after the disease has developed. Examples of this include remission of cancer or heart disease in elderly people who can die from these or other causes and occurrence of a particular acquired immune deficiency syndrome illness in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) disease. Death is not an ancillary event but, rather, indicates either and end to disease morbidity or an end to risk to ever develop the disease. Thus, time to disease survival analyses that censor disease-free individuals at death can produce misleading results. The paper describes several useful quantifications of disease and death for this setting. A paradigm that utilizes Kaplan-Meier functions to estimate these quantities is introduced. The approach anchors on a four-stage disease/death model: stage A, living without disease; stage B, dead without ever developing disease; stage C, developed the disease and living; and stage D, dead after developing the disease. An application is made to projecting cytomegalovirus disease in a cohort of HIV-1-infected users of zidovudine and Pneumocystis prophylaxis from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) during 1989-1993. At 3 years after a CD4+ count below 100/microliters, a man had an 18.7%, 46.3%, 5.3% or 29.9% chance, respectively, to be in stage A, B, C, or D. This man, on average, had 0.28 years of cytomegalovirus morbidity during these 3 years.

The relationship between cell-associated infectious human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) load (infectious units/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells [IUPM]) and phenotypes of CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes was studied. IUPM were measured in 242 HIV-infected homosexual men by quantitative microculture and T cell subsets by two-color flow cytometry. In multivariate analysis, IUPM correlated negatively with CD4+ lymphocyte level and with a diagnosis of AIDS and positively with the proportion of CD8+ lymphocytes expressing the activation marker CD38. After adjusting for level of CD4+ lymphocytes, men with AIDS had significantly lower IUPM than those without AIDS. The correlation between IUPM and CD4+ lymphocyte level was largely explained by correlation with level of CD4+ lymphocytes with resting phenotypes (HLA-DR-, CD38-) rather than with those expressing HLA-DR and CD38. Thus, subsets of CD4+ lymphocytes may vary in cell-associated infectious HIV content at different stages of HIV infection.

Background: Low birthweight, prematurity and intra-uterine growth retardation (IUGR) are major determinants of child survival. Therefore, it is important to assess excess mortality due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in populations where low birthweight is common., Methods: A prospective study was conducted on 1385 children born to seropositive and seronegative women in urban Malawi. Children were regularly examined and tested for HIV., Results: The mortality rate of children of HIV seropositive mothers was substantially higher (223/1000 at 12 months, 317/1000 at 24 months and 360/1000 at 30 months) than that of children of seronegative mothers (68/1000 at 12 months, 106/1000 at 24 months and 118/1000 at 30 months). The incidence of prematurity and IUGR was also higher in infants of HIV seropositive mothers than in infants of seronegative mothers (12.7% versus 3.8%, P < 0.001 for premature and 7.7% versus 4.4%, P = 0.02 for IUGR infants). The mother-to-infant HIV-1 transmission rate was 35.1%. After 12 months of age, HIV infected children showed the highest mortality; however, uninfected children of HIV seropositive and children of HIV seronegative mothers had similar mortality. The mean birthweight of HIV infected and uninfected children was not significantly different. In HIV infected children the most frequent causes of death were diarrhoea, pneumonia and failure to thrive. Less common risk factors for child mortality included active maternal syphilis and cervicitis/vaginitis., Conclusion: The substantial difference in survival among children of HIV infected and uninfected mothers suggests that mortality could be reduced if HIV infection were not a risk factor. To decrease childhood mortality, a combination of interventions such as treatment of sexually transmitted infections during pregnancy and measures to reduce mother-to-infant transmission should be adopted.

Objective: To identify clinical and epidemiological factors associated with failure of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis in those receiving primary and secondary prophylaxis., Design: Longitudinal cohort study of participants infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study who used PCP prophylaxis regimens after their T-helper lymphocyte counts had decreased to less than 0.200 x 10(9)/L (200/microL)., Main Outcome Measure: Occurrence or recurrence of PCP., Results: A total of 476 participants reported taking one or more of the following regimens: trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), dapsone, and/or aerosolized pentamidine--367 as primary prophylaxis and 109 as secondary prophylaxis after a previous episode of PCP. A total of 92 (20%) developed PCP despite prophylaxis. The mean failure rates per person-year of follow-up were 16.0% for those receiving primary prophylaxis and 12.1% for those receiving secondary prophylaxis (P = .19). Median times to death after initiation of primary or secondary prophylaxis were 2.0 and 1.2 years, respectively. The main predictor for failure of PCP prophylaxis was profound T-helper lymphocytopenia; 86% of failures occurred after T-helper cell counts decreased to less than 0.075 x 10(9)/L and 76% occurred after counts decreased to less than 0.050 x 10(9)/L. In multivariate time-dependent analysis, when compared with counts between 0.100 x 10(9)/L and 0.200 x 10(9)/L, the risk ratio for failure with counts less than 0.050 x 10(9)/L was 2.90 (P < .001). Once T-helper cell counts were considered, fever was the only other health status indicator that predicted subsequent PCP (ie, a time-dependent risk ratio of 2.22; P = .01). Use of TMP-SMX as the prophylaxis regimen was protective but did not eliminate failure (ie, a time-dependent risk ratio of 0.55; P = .03)., Conclusions: These findings strongly support identifying improved methods of PCP prophylaxis once T-helper cell counts decrease to less than 0.075 x 10(9)/L or 0.100 x 10(9)/L. Given this severe degree of immunosuppression, an inherently more effective regimen against P carinii is required.

This analysis investigated variability of survival time in a cohort of 553 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected homosexual or bisexual men with < 50 CD4+ cells/microL. Median survival after the first CD4+ cell count < 50/microL was 1.34 years; 25% survived > or = 2 years. Multivariate analysis showed longer survival with concurrent acyclovir and zidovudine use, hemoglobin > or = 12 g/dL, and full-time employment (P < .0001). Other significant covariates associated with longer survival included African-American race, no prior AIDS illness, weight loss < 4.5 kg, and zidovudine use (with or without concurrent acyclovir) after CD4+ cells fell to < 50/microL. An easily derived score identified Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study subjects likely to survive > 2 years after CD4+ cell count was < 50/microL. Survival once CD4+ cell count fell below 50/microL may be longer for persons with a good performance status and specific clinical markers. Health care providers should consider these variables in decision-making strategies and design of clinical trials.

Objective: Quantify and study cofactors of long-term survival without AIDS in HIV-1-infected individuals with CD4+ cell counts < 200 x 10(6)/l., Design: Comparison of 579 participants who could be longitudinally evaluated for at least 3 years after the earliest date of first reaching a CD4+ cell count < 200 x 10(6)/l or an AIDS-defining illness (1987 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition)., Setting: Ongoing 9-year cohort study with data collected at 6-month intervals., Patients: HIV-1-infected homosexual men., Measurements and Main Results: Of the men, 20% did not develop an AIDS illness within 3 years following a confirmed CD4+ cell count < 200 x 10(6)/l; 29 and 28% were diagnosed with a first clinical AIDS illness from 1-3 and < 1 years, respectively, beyond their first CD4+ cell count < 200 x 10(6)/l; 23% were diagnosed with a clinical AIDS illness prior to their first CD4+ cell count < 200 x 10(6)/l. Slower decline of CD4+ cell count (P < 0.001) and presence of higher body-mass index during the period prior to the first CD4+ cell count < 200 x 10(6)/l (P < 0.001) predicted longer time to an AIDS illness once this threshold was reached. Most men had rapid loss of CD4+ cells, total T cells, and hemoglobin during the period after CD4+ cells declined below 200 x 10(6)/l. However, those remaining free of AIDS illnesses the longest arrested their decline in CD4+ cell counts and hemoglobin levels and increased total T cells during this period. Although antiretroviral therapy and Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis extend AIDS-free survival, 45% of the group who were AIDS-free > or = 3 years after CD4+ cells fell below 200 x 10(6)/l had not used these treatments., Conclusions: Significant numbers of individuals remain free of illnesses and AIDS symptoms > or = 3 years after CD4+ cell counts drop below 200 x 10(6)/l. This occurs even in the absence of treatment. The associations seen here suggest that host and viral factors play important roles. Thus, further studies are needed to determine the biological basis of long-term survival without AIDS illnesses in HIV-1-immunosuppressed patients.

Two lines of attack have been used against HIV-1 disease: (1) antiretroviral therapy (notably zidovudine) directed against the HIV-1 virus; and (2) chemoprophylaxis against end-stage diseases of HIV-1 infection, most notably against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. Many studies and clinical trials have found that zidovudine and P. carinii prophylaxis each significantly reduce short term morbidity and mortality from HIV-1 disease. However, these drugs have costs, adverse effects and (particularly with zidovudine) cumulative toxicity that suggest that their long term benefits may not necessarily be as great as their short term prospects. Due to the pressing needs of the HIV-1 epidemic, social considerations and proven short term benefits, long term clinical trials of zidovudine and P. carinii prophylaxis employing untreated control groups are impossible. Thus, the long term benefits of these anti-AIDS therapies must be estimated from observational studies comparing those who choose to use those therapies and those who do not. Strong epidemiological biases and common statistical misanalyses of observational data occur, leading to seemingly contradictory results. On the basis of the aggregate of short term clinical data and long term observational studies, zidovudine therapy taken either before or after AIDS delays the date of death by 12 months. If zidovudine therapy is initiated before AIDS, it may delay the date of diagnosis of AIDS by 12 months. However, issues of cost effectiveness, detrimental effects and optimal time to begin zidovudine therapy remain unresolved. Limited observational study data suggest that P. carinii prophylaxis initiated before the onset of clinical AIDS will delay both the date of diagnosis of AIDS and the date of death by 9 months in North American men. The net benefits from P. carinii prophylaxis will be less in those who begin this treatment after a diagnosis of AIDS. Benefits from P. carinii prophylaxis will also probably be less in regions outside of North America, in particular underdeveloped countries, where P. carinii pneumonia is less common as an end-stage HIV-1-related illness.

Men from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study were classified as "susceptible" and "resistant" to HIV infection. Resistant men were still HIV antibody negative in 1993 and were estimated to have had > 45 different anal intercourse partners (median, 92; range, 46-504) in the 2.5 years before visit 2 (1985). Susceptible men were seroconverters who were estimated to have had < 13 different anal partners (median, 4; range, 0-12). Leukocyte groups were compared between the two groups of men. Values were excluded for 12 months before the first antibody-positive visit in the susceptible men. White blood cells, polymorphonuclear neutrophils, total lymphocyte count, CD8+ percentage and number, and CD3+ and CD4+ number were higher in the resistant men. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop 50 bivariate models. Higher levels of neutrophils and CD8+ cells were included in four of the six best-fitting bivariate models, suggesting that each is associated with resistance to HIV-1 infection. These results support the hypothesis that CD8+ cells may modulate the outcome of HIV-1 exposure.

Studies show that around 10-40% HIV-positive women will give birth to children who are also infected. However, the risk factors for transmission from mother to child are not well understood and the effects of maternal nutritional status are unknown. We conducted a study of vitamin A status in pregnant women as a risk factor for mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi. Serum vitamin A, height, weight, CD4 T-cell counts, and duration of breastfeeding were measured in 338 HIV-positive mothers whose infant's HIV serostatus was known. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV was 21.9% among mothers whose infants survived to 12 months of age. Mean vitamin A concentration in 74 mothers who transmitted HIV to their infants was lower than that in 264 mothers who did not transmit HIV to their infants (0.86 [0.03] vs 1.07 [0.02], p < 0.0001). We divided HIV positive mothers to 4 groups, those with vitamin A concentrations of less than 0.70, between 0.70 and 1.05, between 1.05 and 1.40, and greater than or equal to 1.40 mumol/L. The mother-to-child transmission rates for each group were 32.4%, 26.2%, 16.0%, and 7.2%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Maternal CD4 cell counts, CD4%, and CD4/CD8 ratio were also associated with increased mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Maternal age, body-mass index, and breastfeeding practices were not significantly associated with higher mother-to-child transmission. Our study suggests that maternal vitamin A deficiency contributes to mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

The objective of this study was to determine whether beta 2-microglobulin, neopterin, nutritional status, clinical status, immunosuppression, and hematologic status are predictors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related wasting and wasting syndrome. In addition, we aimed to determine which factors are early predictors and which are late predictors of wasting. For this cohort study of HIV-1-seropositive men seen semiannually from 1984 to 1991, a nested case-control design was used to analyze the predictive value of independent variables collected at baseline (first study visit for the seropositive cohort, first seropositive visit for seroconverters), 12 to 18 months prior, 6 to 12 months prior, and less than 6 months prior to the time at which case patients and control subjects were identified. Data on beta 2-microglobulin, neopterin, educational status, and diet were only available at baseline. A total of 41 case patients and 161 control subjects (n = 202) were identified. These were homosexual/bisexual men who were either HIV-seropositive on entering the study (n = 177) or who seroconverted during the study period (n = 25). Case patients were defined as men who had lost more than 10% of their baseline weight or who had a clinical diagnosis of wasting syndrome using the 1987 Centers for Disease Control definition. Control subjects had less than 5% weight loss from baseline or no weight loss at all. Four control subjects were matched to each case patient (where possible) by age and duration of follow-up.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Background: Among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), early and widespread use of prophylactic regimens against Pneumocystis carinii is changing the pattern of illnesses related to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)., Methods: We conducted a subcohort analysis of 844 men with AIDS (87 percent of whom have since died) from a prospectively followed cohort of 2592 HIV-1-infected homosexual men., Results: A total of 138 men received prophylaxis before the diagnosis of AIDS, but 39 (28 percent) nevertheless had P. carinii pneumonia at some time. Only four illnesses occurred more frequently in men who received P. carinii prophylaxis before the onset of AIDS: Mycobacterium avium complex disease, which developed in 33.4 percent, as compared with 17.3 percent of the 706 men who did not receive early prophylaxis; wasting syndrome (18.4 percent vs. 6.4 percent); cytomegalovirus disease (44.9 percent vs. 24.8 percent); and esophageal candidiasis (21.3 percent vs. 12.8 percent). Collectively, these four diseases accounted for the initial AIDS-related illness in 42.7 percent of those who received prophylaxis before the onset of AIDS, as compared with 10.7 percent of those who did not. During the three six-month periods before the diagnosis of AIDS (0 to 6, > 6 to 12, and > 12 to 18 months), the geometric mean CD4+ cell counts were 48, 87, and 147 per cubic millimeter, respectively, in men who received prophylaxis against P. carinii, as compared with 118, 211, and 279 per cubic millimeter in those who did not., Conclusions: M. avium complex disease, esophageal candidiasis, wasting syndrome, and cytomegalovirus disease are more common in HIV-infected patients who have received prophylaxis against P. carinii than in those who have not. Prophylaxis may delay the first AIDS illness for 6 to 12 months.

To determine whether the excess prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in US black and Hispanic homosexual men relative to white men can be explained by differences in sociodemographic factors, history of sexually transmitted diseases, or sexual and drug-use behaviors, the authors conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline HIV-1 seroprevalence and HIV-1 risk factors among 4,475 non-Hispanic white, 234 Hispanic white, and 194 black homosexual men from four centers in the United States (Baltimore/Washington, DC, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Los Angeles). HIV-1 seroprevalence was significantly higher in Hispanic men (50%; odds ratio (OR) = 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-2.39) and black men (47%; OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.21-2.16) compared with white men (35%). Both Hispanic and black men more frequently reported a history of sexually transmitted diseases. Overall, Hispanics had the highest risk profile and blacks the lowest risk profile with respect to certain high-risk sexual behaviors (e.g., receptive anal intercourse and use of anonymous sexual partners) and recreational drug use. After multivariate adjustment, black race remained a significant independent risk factor for HIV-1 seropositivity (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.13-2.26), but Hispanic ethnicity was no longer statistically significant (OR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.82-1.69). Most of the excess HIV-1 prevalent infection among Hispanics was explained by their predominant recruitment from Los Angeles--the study center with the highest HIV-1 seroprevalence--and their greater prevalence of a history of sexually transmitted diseases and certain high-risk sexual practices. By contrast, adjustment for these same risk behaviors failed to explain the observed black-white differences in HIV-1 seroprevalence, and further studies are needed to elucidate the reasons for these unexplained racial differences. HIV-1 educational programs for homosexual men should take into account the behavioral differences that exist between white and minority racial/ethnic groups.

We have formulated the problem of determining whether there has been an upturn in HIV-1 seroconversion incidence over the first five years of follow-up in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) as that of locating the minimum of a quadratic regression or examination of two-knot piecewise spline models. Under a quadratic model, we propose a method to obtain a direct estimate and a bootstrap estimate for the location of the temporal turning point (local minimum) for HIV-1 seroconversion incidence and three methods to estimate confidence intervals for the location of the turning point for HIV seroconversion incidence: (1) Wald confidence interval estimate with or without log transformation assuming the asymptotic normality and applying the Delta method; (2) asymmetric confidence intervals using Fieller's Theorem and its modification; and (3) bootstrapping confidence intervals. Inferences for the temporal turning point based on Wald tests for a single regression term in a non-linear regression model were not reliable compared to inferences based on confidence intervals placed on calendar time. We present results using these different methods applied to the MACS data and we obtain power estimates to illustrate the performances of different methods.

We investigated the long-term health effects of HIV-1 infection in homosexual men not close to developing AIDS by comparing 916 HIV-1-seropositive (SP) men at least 1.67-3.67 years prior to a clinical AIDS diagnosis to 2,161 HIV-1-seronegative (SN) controls. The SP group reported a higher total of 12 distinct symptoms (fatigue, shortness of breath, night sweats, rash, cough, diarrhea, headache, thrush, skin discoloration, fever, weight loss, and sore throat/mouth) than did the SN group (p < 0.0001), corresponding to at least 5.6 more days/year of such symptoms. The SP group had lower body mass index (p < 0.0001) and lower hemoglobin (p < 0.0001). The SP group was more depressed, as measured by CES-D score (p = 0.047), before knowledge of one's serostatus was likely, and became even further depressed (p = 0.038 for increase in depression) after the HIV-1 serostatus test was accessible to high-risk groups. These associations remained unchanged in multivariate models, incorporating other covariates.

A total of 6600 pregnant urban women attending an antenatal clinic of a major hospital in Malawi were evaluated for risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. HIV-1 seroprevalence was 23% and significantly (P < .001) associated with markers of heterosexual activity (history of sexually transmitted diseases [STDs], more than one sexual partner, reports of husbands with other partners, and all prevalent STDs except chlamydial infection) and higher socioeconomic status (as measured by husband's education). History of injections, scarification, and transfusions were not associated with HIV-1 infection. In two logistic regression models, higher socioeconomic status was a risk factor for HIV-1 infection (odds ratio [OR] = 2.69, P < .001) but not for STDs (OR = 0.94, P = .30). The opposite associations between HIV-1 and socioeconomic status and STDs and socioeconomic status suggest that HIV prevention strategies, in addition to STD diagnosis and treatment, should include interventions to reduce high-risk sexual activity and promote condom use.

Using a case-control study of untreated men, we investigated the physical, mental, and economic effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection prior to the diagnosis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Beginning 2 to 2.5 years prior to AIDS, case subjects reported more of 12 HIV-1 related symptoms and during the year prior to AIDS, at least 30.6 extra days of these symptoms than did control subjects. Within the 6 months preceding AIDS, case subjects' unemployment rose to 9% (P < or = .05) and depression to 34.2% (P < or = .001). At 6 to 12 months and within 6 months before AIDS, 17.1% and 31.5%, respectively, were anemic, while 37.7% and 64.7% had CD4+ counts less than 200 x 10(6)/L. Diagnosing AIDS at CD4+ counts less than 200 x 10(6)/L could significantly reduce pre-AIDS morbidity. Other implications of these findings are discussed.

Flow cytometric studies were done in Malawi on 229 women in their third trimester and 128 women 6 weeks postpartum; both human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-seropositive and -seronegative women demonstrated an increase in the absolute number of CD4 and CD8 lymphocytes between late pregnancy and early postpartum, while percentages of CD4 and CD8 cells remained virtually unchanged. Subsequent measurement of CD4 and CD8 cells 6 weeks after delivery in 89 women tested in the third trimester showed an increase in absolute numbers in both HIV-1-seropositive and -seronegative women, without a parallel increase in CD4 or CD8 percentage. Regardless of HIV-1 infection status, Malawian women are no more immunosuppressed, as measured by T cells, in their third trimester of pregnancy than in the nonpregnant state. Percentage, rather than absolute number, should be used when monitoring CD4 and CD8 cell levels in pregnant women to avoid the effect of higher volume of distribution on absolute numbers of T cells.

A single CD4+ cell count (CD4) measurement is often used to stage HIV-1 infection, decide when to initiate prophylactic therapy and inform patients, and may soon even define AIDS onset. Documentation of the reliability and validity of employing CD4 for the above purposes in a population-based setting is needed. We utilized data from 4,954 homosexual/bisexual men followed over 6 years, with CD4 testing at 6 month intervals, to study the timing of CD4-based staging of HIV-1 disease and quantify and evaluate the potential impact of CD4 measurement error. The median time from seroconversion to first CD4 test below 500 x 10(6)/L or clinical AIDS was 1.70 years, and the first CD4 test below 200 x 10(6)/L or clinical AIDs was 5.29 years. The time from first testing less than 500 x 10(6)/L to clinical AIDS in untreated men was 5.55 years. With confirmatory retesting, these times were significantly lengthened. The 95% confidence ranges for the true CD4 state in individuals with measured CD4 of 500 and 200 x 10(6)/L are at least (297 x 10(6), 841 x 10(6)/L) and (118 x 10(6), 337 x 10(6)/L), respectively. Without confirmatory retesting, individuals with true CD4 remaining at 700 x 10(6) and 280 x 10(6)/L have at least a 40% chance for one of five CD4 measurements to fall below guideline limits of 500 x 10(6) and 200 x 10(6)/L, respectively. Confirmatory retesting can reduce these probabilities to as low as 4%.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)