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In human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected persons, virus load (serum/plasma level of HIV) predicts outcome. Virus load trends have been characterized in adults and infants but not in children. Virus load trends in 22 male children with hemophilia who acquired HIV-1 postnatally (age 0.7-5.2 years at seroconversion) were studied. The mean HIV-1 load 2 years after seroconversion was 4.40 log10 copies/mL, and the mean change over time (slope) was 0.03 log10 copies/(mL x year). Significant among-children variation was apparent: a random effects model predicted that 95% of children had early virus loads 3.75-5.04 log10 copies/mL and slopes -0.07 to 0.12 log10 copies/(mL x year). Higher early virus loads and higher slopes were each associated with increased mortality (P=.006 and P=.03, respectively). In conclusion, those subjects had virus load trends similar to those in adults. Early virus loads were lower than those in vertically infected infants, which suggests that factors changing soon after birth affect viral replication.

We estimated the annual hazard rate for progression to AIDS as defined by the 1987 case definition in HIV-infected members of a cohort of Danish and American homosexual-bisexual men who were observed from 1981 to 1995. Furthermore, we extrapolated the hazard to 25 years based on imputed future time to AIDS. Of 201 HIV-positive subjects, 112 developed AIDS before the end of follow-up. The hazard increased rapidly during the first years following infection, attained a peak of about 15% per year at year 7, and was moderately lower during years 8 through 10. In subsequent analysis, we imputed future time to AIDS in 89 subjects who had not progressed by the end of follow-up by extrapolation from subject-specific CD4 trend lines. A CD4 count of < or = 100 cells/microl was the best surrogate for clinical AIDS. Under this model, the imputed AIDS hazard stabilized at around 8% per year after 10 years. We projected that 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-19%) of the infected men may remain free from AIDS 25 years after seroconversion. Our direct data suggest that incubation times reflect a mixture of a population that is susceptible to disease progression and has short incubation periods with a group that is relatively resistant. Based on an extrapolation model, > 10% of HIV-infected persons may survive for up to 25 years without developing AIDS.

Progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) varies considerably and may be influenced by factors such as age, smoking, number of male partners per year, and CD4 T-lymphocyte count. The loss of CD4 lymphocytes is known to be the dominant factor in the progression to AIDS. However, it is unclear whether the effect of the CD4 lymphocyte count is of such importance that persons with similar CD4 cell counts who have been infected for widely different lengths of time have the same risk of AIDS. While a CD4 count is easily obtainable, the precise amount of time since HIV infection is in most circumstances difficult to assess. In the present analysis, 259 Danish and 245 American homosexual men were followed for up to 14 years from 1981 to 1995. Two hundred and one persons seroconverted during the study period, and 112 had developed AIDS before the end of follow-up. CD4 lymphocyte count was highly correlated with the risk of developing AIDS (p < 0.001), but AIDS risk was not affected significantly by either age at infection, smoking, or number of male partners per year (p > 0.20 in all cases). Controlled for CD4 lymphocyte count, time since seroconversion was significant in explaining the risk of AIDS (p = 0.018), with a lower risk being seen during the first 3 years after seroconversion but no effect thereafter. These data confirm the central importance of CD4 lymphocyte level in the progression of HIV disease to AIDS, and suggest that rapid progression within 3 years of infection may be related to factors other than CD4 cell count.

Objective: Our objective was to examine changes in CD4+ and CD8+ cell levels during pregnancy and post partum and to determine whether they differ for human immunodeficiency virus-1-seropositive and seronegative women., Study Design: A total of 192 human immunodeficiency virus-1-seropositive and 148 seronegative women enrolled in a study of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus-1 who had at least two lymphocyte subset measurements performed during pregnancy or post partum were included in this analysis. Mixed effects repeated-measures models were developed to examine changes in CD4+ and CD8+ cell levels during this period., Results: Consistent with prior reports that CD4+ cell levels decline during pregnancy and return to normal post partum, percent levels increased between the third trimester and 12 months post partum among human immunodeficiency virus-seronegative women (1.98%, p = 0.04). However, CD4+ levels declined steadily during pregnancy and post partum among seropositive women (-1.57%, p = 0.02 between the third trimester and 12 months post partum; =2.65%, p = 0.0004 between 2 and 24 months post partum). The percent CD8+ cell levels increased at or near delivery and declined to baseline between 2 and 6 months post partum in both seronegative and seropositive women, although only the declines were statistically significant in both groups (-2.66%, p = 0.004; and -2.02%, p = 0.02, respectively)., Conclusions: The percent CD4+ cell levels declined steadily during pregnancy and post partum among human immunodeficiency virus-seropositive women, indicating that human immunodeficiency virus disease continues to progress during this period. The percent CD8+ cell levels increased at or near delivery and declined to baseline post partum in both seronegative and seropositive women. These findings may have important clinical implications for both human immunodeficiency virus-infected and uninfected pregnant women.

Kaposi's sarcoma is generally believed to be a non-neoplastic hyperproliferation because it may regress spontaneously and its spindle cells lack features of typical tumor cells, such as aneuploidy, nuclear atypia, and permissive growth in cell culture. A fundamental characteristic of neoplasms is clonality, in that they arise from clonal replication of a single cell whereas reactive processes are derived from polyclonal proliferation. We used an X chromosome inactivation assay to determine the clonality of Kaposi's sarcoma nodules from patients with AIDS-related disease. The assay is based on a methyl-sensitive restriction digest followed by PCR amplification of the highly polymorphic androgen receptor gene. Two of three evaluable cases had a monoclonal pattern of inactivation, and the third case had a clonal expansion of cells with an altered microsatellite repeat sequence. These data suggest that Kaposi's sarcoma (at least in the AIDS setting) is a clonal neoplasm.

Objective: To estimate the age-specific relative risk of progression from HIV seroconversion to onset of AIDS in hemophiliacs and homosexual men., Design: Prospective follow-up data from HIV seroconversion to AIDS was analyzed for hemophiliacs in the Multicenter Hemophilia Cohort Study and for homosexual men in the International Registry of Seroconverters. Follow-up was censored at 1 July 1987 to obtain natural history estimates unaffected by therapies that were widely used after this date. The age-specific relative hazard of progression was estimated using nonparametric proportional hazards models and the baseline hazard function was described using spline models., Results: Among the 373 children and adults with hemophilia and the 1020 adult homosexual men, each 10-year increment in age at seroconversion was associated with a 1.6- and 1.4-fold increase in the hazard of progression, respectively. The effect of age was highly significant among hemophiliacs. The magnitude of the effect was consistent in different cohorts of homosexual men, although it was not nominally significant. Furthermore, there was a significant increase (1.9-fold higher) in progression rates among homosexual men above rather than below 35 years of age at seroconversion. After adjusting for age, progression rates among hemophiliacs were significantly slower, possibly because Kaposi's sarcoma was rare. In both groups, the annual hazard rate increased during the first 5 years after seroconversion, but broad confidence limits prevented us from establishing hazard trends beyond this time., Conclusions: Estimates of the aggregate incubation time distribution were substantially shorter in older compared with younger individuals. The increasing risk with age was similar in hemophiliacs and homosexual men, suggesting that age is an endogenous host factor. These findings can be incorporated into newly developed backcalculation models to estimate HIV infection incidence by age group from age-specific AIDS surveillance data.

Since prevalent cohorts may be biased by the duration of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (onset bias), it is useful to assess the potential predictive value of markers in incident cohorts of HIV-positive subjects for whom the date of seroconversion is known or can reliably be estimated. Of 131 homosexual men with HIV-1 seroconversion from New York City and Washington, DC, who were evaluated annually beginning in 1982, 60 developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 1989. The prognostic significance of immunologic markers (proportion of CD4+ T-lymphocytes, neopterin, beta 2-microglobulin, serum interferon, and anti-p24 antibody) and of a virologic marker (HIV p24 antigen) was determined using measurements made at defined time intervals after the known or estimated date of HIV seroconversion. When measurements made 3 years after seroconversion were used, all markers except anti-p24 antibody were found to be significant estimators of AIDS risk in univariate analyses. In multivariate Cox regression modeling, the maximum information was obtained by including neopterin, interferon, and the CD4+ T-lymphocyte proportion. The predictive value of markers after HIV seroconversion could change considerably from one interval to another. Elevated levels of beta 2-microglobulin and neopterin significantly predicted the development of Kaposi's sarcoma. These two markers were highly correlated (r = 0.74). The authors conclude that immunologic markers can be important for an HIV staging system for estimating prognosis and facilitating early therapeutic intervention in HIV-positive patients.

Two hundred and two homosexual men enrolled in a prospective cohort study of AIDS risk were assessed for differences in the occurrence and progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection with respect to cigarette smoking. Among subjects who were initially seronegative, smokers were more likely than nonsmokers to become HIV-1 seropositive (p = 0.03). After seroconversion, serum beta 2-microglobulin and CD4+ lymphocyte levels were elevated in cigarette smokers relative to nonsmokers (p = 0.02 for both comparisons), but both of these differences disappeared within 2 years. There was no detectable difference in the risk of AIDS or Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia with respect to smoking. Our data suggest that cigarette smoking may alter the immune response to HIV-1 infection, but it appears to have no marked effect on clinical outcome. They also suggest that cigarette smoking may be a surrogate marker for continued high-risk sexual behavior in homosexual men.

In 1984, Greek physicians reported on the clustering of cases of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) on the Peloponnesus peninsula. To gain more insight into its pathogenesis, we studied the seroepidemiologic and clinicopathologic characteristics of 12 Greek KS patients (eight male/four female) five of whom were residents of an endemic area on the Peloponnesus. These patients were in good general health with ages ranging from 48 to 80 years, had no clinical signs of immunodeficiency, and combined the features of both classic and epidemic KS in that they displayed not only involvement of acral areas but also widespread mucocutaneous lesions. Routine laboratory data were within normal limits; no patient had HTLV-1 and HIV-1/2 antibodies, but all patients had antibodies to several herpesviruses. The histopathology was characteristic of KS with the peculiar feature of a dense infiltrate composed predominantly of CD4+ T lymphocytes. Immunoenzymatic/morphologic studies of the KS cells were consistent with their origin from lymphatic endothelium. Outstanding ultrastructural findings were tubuloreticular structures and cylindrical confronting cisternae, structures that are indicative of an ongoing viral infection. Indeed, extensive electronmicroscopic studies resulted in the detection of retrovirus-like particles in close association to KS cells in five of 12 patients. This in situ observation opens the possibility that this retro-virus contributes to KS development.

One hundred thirty-four homosexual men from a prospective cohort study of AIDS risk from New York City and Washington D.C. and 139 homosexual men from a similar cohort in Copenhagen and Aarhus, Denmark were questioned regarding their sexual practices and knowledge of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status over the previous 12 months. Seventy percent of Danish men and 63% of U.S. men participated in anal intercourse during the previous 12 months. Knowledge of one's own HIV status by itself did not have any significant effect on participation in anal intercourse, partner number, or condom use. Only 23% of U.S. men and 24% of Danish men always asked potential partners about their HIV status. However, men who did ask were very unlikely to choose a partner of opposite HIV status (p less than 0.006). Danish men were more likely to practice anal intercourse without a condom than were the U.S. men (p less than 0.0001); however, Danes were more likely to be in a concordant monogamous relationship than were the U.S. men (p less than 0.001). Fourteen percent of U.S. men and 21% of Danish men were not aware of their own HIV status and 52% of the U.S. cohort and 31% of the Danes had anal intercourse with a man whose status was unknown to them. Overall, only 32% of American and 53% of Danish homosexual men were practicing completely safe sex. We suggest that education to promote the need for awareness of one's own and one's partner's HIV status should be stressed.

Latent structure analysis can be used to determine sensitivity and specificity rates of human immunodeficiency virus antibody assays in the absence of previous clinical or laboratory results. The technique was applied to the analysis of data obtained when a panel of serum samples, collected as part of a large-scale screening project, were subjected to four conventional bioassays (ag121, p24, gp120, and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). To determine the accuracy of this statistical approach, the results of latent structure analysis were compared with the known clinical diagnoses of patients from whom the samples were taken, and nearly 100% agreement was obtained. Although a two-class latent structure model had some predictive value, a three-class model more adequately explained assay patterns. The use of the four standard assays in conjunction with the statistical methods described here would largely reduce the need for confirmatory Western blot assays in analyses of large panels of samples.

We evaluated a multicenter cohort of 1219 subjects with hemophilia or related disorders prospectively, focusing on 319 subjects with documented dates of seroconversion to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The incidence rate of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after seroconversion was 2.67 per 100 person-years and was directly related to age (from 0.83 in persons 1 to 11 years old up to 5.66 in persons 35 to 70 years old; Ptrend = 0.00003). The annual incidence of AIDS ranged from zero during the first year after seroconversion to 7 percent during the eighth year, with eight-year cumulative rates (+/- SE) of 13.3 +/- 5.3 percent for ages 1 to 17, 26.8 +/- 6.4 percent for ages 18 to 34, and 43.7 +/- 16.4 percent for ages 35 to 70. Serial immunologic and virologic markers (total numbers of CD4 lymphocytes, presence of serum interferon or HIV-1 p24 antigen, and low or absent serum levels of anti-p24 or anti-gp120) predicted a high risk for the subsequent development of AIDS. Adults 35 to 70 years old had a higher incidence of low CD4 counts than younger subjects (P less than or equal to 0.005), whereas adolescents had a low rate of anti-p24 loss (P = 0.0007) and subjects 1 to 17 years old had a lower incidence of AIDS after loss of anti-p24 (P = 0.03). These findings not only demonstrate that the risk of AIDS is related directly to age but also suggest that older adults are disproportionately affected during the earlier phases of HIV disease, that adolescents may have a low replication rate of HIV, and that children and adolescents may tolerate severe immunodeficiency better because they have fewer other infections or because of some unmeasured, age-dependent cofactor or immune alteration in the later phase of HIV disease.

In 79 homosexual men infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), urinary neopterin was significantly higher as compared with 70 HIV-seronegative men in the same cohort (p less than 0.0001). This highly significant association was found both for naturally occurring oxidized (native) neopterin and for total neopterin (native plus chemically oxidized forms). In prospective follow-up for 18 months, the odds that the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) would develop were elevated 25-fold among those whose native neopterin levels were in the highest quartile compared with those with lower neopterin levels, and the corresponding odds ratio for total neopterin was 7.8. Logistic regression analyses indicated that neopterin added useful information to T4-cell count in predicting AIDS onset and that both are statistically significant in the multivariate model. A cross-sectional survey revealed that neopterin levels were correlated with number of receptive anal intercourse partners in the year before HIV seroconversion (r = 0.60, p = 0.0005). Since neopterin may serve as a marker of monocyte/macrophage activation by soluble factors such as gamma-interferon, these data support a growing body of virologic and immunologic evidence that highlights the important role of the monocyte/macrophage in the pathogenesis of AIDS.