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Introduction: Mortality rates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries continue to decline. We compared mortality rates among PLHIV on ART in Europe for 2016-2020 with Spectrum's estimates., Methods: The AIDS Impact Module in Spectrum is a compartmental HIV epidemic model coupled with a demographic population projection model. We used national Spectrum projections developed for the 2022 HIV estimates round to calculate mortality rates among PLHIV on ART, adjusting to the age/country distribution of PLHIV starting ART from 1996 to 2020 in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)'s European cohorts., Results: In the ART-CC, 11,504 of 162,835 PLHIV died. Between 1996-1999 and 2016-2020, AIDS-related mortality in the ART-CC decreased from 8.8 (95% CI: 7.6 to 10.1) to 1.0 (0.9-1.2) and from 5.9 (4.4-8.1) to 1.1 (0.9-1.4) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Non-AIDS-related mortality decreased from 9.1 (7.9-10.5) to 6.1 (5.8-6.5) and from 7.0 (5.2-9.3) to 4.8 (4.3-5.2) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Spectrum among men were near ART-CC estimates for 2016-2020 (Spectrum: 7.02-7.47 deaths per 1000 person-years) but approximately 20% lower in women (Spectrum: 4.66-4.70). Adjusted excess mortality rates in Spectrum were 2.5-fold higher in women and 3.1-3.4-fold higher in men in comparison to the ART-CC's AIDS-specific mortality rates., Discussion: Spectrum's all-cause mortality estimates among PLHIV are consistent with age/country-controlled mortality observed in ART-CC, with some underestimation of mortality among women. Comparing results suggest that 60%-70% of excess deaths among PLHIV on ART in Spectrum are from non-AIDS causes., Competing Interests: R.G.'s institution has received grants from UNAIDS and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. N.P. has received grants unrelated to this study and paid to his institution from Gilead Sciences Hellas and ECDC. R.Z. has not received honoraria in the past 3 years. J.V. has personal fees from Merck/MSD, Gilead, Pfizer, Astellas Pharma, Basilea, German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), University Hospital Freiburg/Congress and Communication, Academy for Infectious Medicine, University Manchester, German Society for Infectious Diseases (DGI), Ärztekammer Nordrhein, University Hospital Aachen, Back Bay Strategies, and German Society for Internal Medicine (DGIM) and grants from Merck/MSD, Gilead, Pfizer, Astellas Pharma, Basilea, German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), (PJ-T: DLR), University of Bristol, and Rigshospitalet Copenhagen. M.C.'s institution received research grants and expert opinion fees from Gilead, MSD, and Viiv. R.T. has received grant funding from Gilead, Janssen, and ViiV unrelated to this work. J.W.E. reports personal fees from Oxford Policy Management. The remaining authors have no funding or conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Objectives: To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996-1999 and survived for more than ten years., Methods: We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA., Results: During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years., Conclusions: Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes.