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Background: There is increasing interest in utilising two-drug regimens for HIV treatment with the goal of reducing toxicity and improve acceptability. The D3 trial evaluates the efficacy and safety of DTG/3TC in children and adolescents and includes a nested pharmacokinetics(PK) substudy for paediatric drug licensing., Methods: D3 is an ongoing open-label, phase III, 96-week non-inferiority randomised controlled trial(RCT) conducted in South Africa, Spain, Thailand, Uganda and the United Kingdom. D3 has enrolled 386 children aged 2- < 15 years, virologically suppressed for ≥6 months, with no prior treatment failure. Participants were randomised 1:1 to receive DTG/3TC or DTG plus two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors(NRTIs), stratified by region, age (2- < 6, 6- < 12, 12- < 15 years) and DTG use at enrolment (participants permitted to start DTG at enrolment). The primary outcome is confirmed HIV-1 RNA viral rebound ≥50 copies/mL by 96-weeks. The trial employs the Smooth Away From Expected(SAFE) non-inferiority frontier, which specifies the non-inferiority margin and significance level based on the observed event risk in the control arm. The nested PK substudy evaluates WHO weight-band-aligned dosing in the DTG/3TC arm., Discussion: D3 is the first comparative trial evaluating DTG/3TC in children and adolescents. Implications of integrating a PK substudy and supplying data for prompt regulatory submission, were carefully considered to ensure the integrity of the ongoing trial. The trial uses an innovative non-inferiority frontier for the primary analysis to allow for a lower-than-expected confirmed viral rebound risk in the control arm, while ensuring interpretability of results and maintaining the planned sample size in an already funded trial., Trial Registration: International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial Number Register: ISRCTN17157458. European Clinical Trials Database: 2020-001426-57., Clinicaltrials: gov: NCT04337450., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Identifying which young people living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) are less likely to engage in care is crucial to allow targeted interventions to support them to attend clinic. We adapted an existing Engagement in Care (EIC) algorithm for adults with HIV in England, for use in young people. We applied it to data from young people with PHIV in the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. The algorithm predicts the timing of the next scheduled clinic visit, within 1-6 months of current visit, based on routine clinical data. Follow-up was 12-months from AALPHI baseline interview. Each person-month was classified as engaged in care or not. Logistic regression models (allowing for clustered data) were used to explore baseline characteristics associated with being engaged in care, adjusting for a priori variables (time from interview, sex, age, ethnicity, country of birth). Potential characteristics were across 7 domains: sociodemographic; risk behaviour practices; mental health; cognition; clinic setting; HIV management and experience; and HIV clinical markers. Of 316 young people, 187(59%) were female, 271(86%) of black ethnicity and 184(58%) born abroad. At baseline, median [IQR] age was 17[15-18] years, and 202(69%) had viral load ≤50 copies/ml(c/mL). 87% of 3,585 person-months were classified as engaged in care. Characteristics independently associated with poorer odds of being engaged in care were: Asian/mixed/other ethnicity, vs. black ethnicity (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25, 0.78, p = 0.02); ever self-harmed, vs. not (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32, 0.95, p = 0.03); on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and self-assessed bad/not so good adherence (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25, 0.84) or not on ART (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.64, 1.21) vs. on ART and good/excellent adherence (p = 0.04)); baseline VL>50c/mL, vs VL≤50c/mL (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30, 0.75, p = 0.002). These characteristics can help identify individuals requiring enhanced support to maintain service engagement., Competing Interests: Caroline Foster reports grants from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare outside the submitted work. All monies were paid to her institution. Ali Judd reports grants from AbbVie, Bristol Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals and ViiV Healthcare through the PENTA Foundation, and from the European Commission, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, Gilead Sciences, International AIDS Society, NHS England, Medical Research Council and PENTA Foundation outside the submitted work. All monies were paid to her institution. Alasdair Bamford, Siobhan Crichton, Deborah Ford and Marthe Le Prevost declare that they have no competing interests. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials., (Copyright: © 2024 Le Prevost et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Objectives: To examine the voluntariness of consent in paediatric HIV clinical trials and the associated factors., Design: Mixed-methods, cross-sectional study combining a quantitative survey conducted concurrently with indepth interviews., Setting and Participants: From January 2021 to April 2021, we interviewed parents of children on first-line or second-line Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in two ongoing paediatric HIV clinical trials [CHAPAS-4 (ISRCTN22964075) and ODYSSEY (ISRCTN91737921)] at the Joint Clinical Research Centre Mbarara, Uganda., Outcome Measures: The outcome measures were the proportion of parents with voluntary consent, factors affecting voluntariness and the sources of external influence. Parents rated the voluntariness of their consent on a voluntariness ladder. Indepth interviews described participants' lived experiences and were aimed at adding context., Results: All 151 parents randomly sampled for the survey participated (84% female, median age 40 years). Most (67%) gave a fully voluntary decision, with a score of 10 on the voluntariness ladder, whereas 8% scored 9, 9% scored 8, 6% scored 7, 8% scored 6 and 2.7% scored 4. Trust in medical researchers (adjusted OR 9.90, 95% CI 1.01 to 97.20, p=0.049) and male sex of the parent (adjusted OR 3.66, 95% CI 1.00 to 13.38, p=0.05) were positively associated with voluntariness of consent. Prior research experience (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.78, p=0.014) and consulting (adjusted OR 0.25. 95% CI 0.10 to 0.60, p=0.002) were negatively associated with voluntariness. Consultation and advice came from referring health workers (36%), spouses (29%), other family members (27%), friends (15%) and researchers (7%). The indepth interviews (n=14) identified the health condition of the child, advice from referring health workers and the opportunity to access better care as factors affecting the voluntariness of consent., Conclusions: This study demonstrated a high voluntariness of consent, which was enhanced among male parents and by parents' trust in medical researchers. Prior research experience of the child and advice from health workers and spouses were negatively associated with the voluntariness of parents' consent. Female parents and parents of children with prior research experience may benefit from additional interventions to support voluntary participation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally impacted health service access, delivery and resources. There are limited data regarding the impact on the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service delivery in low-resource settings. Neotree ( www.neotree.org ) combines data collection, clinical decision support and education to improve care for neonates. Here we evaluate impacts of COVID-19 on care for HIV-exposed neonates., Methods: Data on HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, between 01/06/2019 and 31/12/2021 were analysed, with pandemic start defined as 21/03/2020 and periods of industrial action (doctors (September 2019-January 2020) and nurses (June 2020-September 2020)) included, resulting in modelling during six time periods: pre-doctors' strike (baseline); doctors' strike; post-doctors' strike and pre-COVID; COVID and pre-nurses' strike; nurses' strike; post nurses' strike. Interrupted time series models were used to explore changes in indicators over time., Results: Of 8,333 neonates admitted to the NNU, 904 (11%) were HIV-exposed. Mothers of 706/765 (92%) HIV-exposed neonates reported receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy. Compared to the baseline period when average admissions were 78 per week (95% confidence interval (CI) 70-87), significantly fewer neonates were admitted during all subsequent periods until after the nurses' strike, with the lowest average number during the nurses' strike (28, 95% CI 23-34, p < 0.001). Across all time periods excluding the nurses strike, average mortality was 20% (95% CI 18-21), but rose to 34% (95% CI 25, 46) during the nurses' strike. There was no evidence for heterogeneity (p > 0.22) in numbers of admissions or mortality by HIV exposure status. Fewer HIV-exposed neonates received a PCR test during the pandemic (23%) compared to the pre-pandemic periods (40%) (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.84, p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV-exposed neonates who received antiretroviral prophylaxis during admission was high throughout, averaging between 84% and 95% in each time-period., Conclusion: While antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-exposed neonates remained high throughout, concerning data on low admissions and increased mortality, similar in HIV-exposed and unexposed neonates, and reduced HIV testing, suggest some aspects of care may have been compromised due to indirect effects of the pandemic., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Evidence suggests that engagement in care (EIC) may be worse in young people living with perinatal HIV (YPLPHIV) compared to adults or children living with HIV. We took a published EIC algorithm for adults with HIV, which takes patients' clinical scenarios into account, and adapted it for use in YPLPHIV in England, to measure their EIC., Methods: The adult algorithm predicts when in the next 6 months the next clinic visit should be scheduled, based on routinely collected clinical indicators at the current visit. We updated the algorithm based on the latest adult guidelines at the time, and modified it for young people in paediatric care using the latest European paediatric guidelines. Paediatric/adolescent HIV consultants from the UK reviewed and adapted the resulting flowcharts. The adapted algorithm was applied to the Adolescent and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort in England. Data for 12 months following entry into AALPHI were used to predicted visits which were then compared to appointment attendances, to measure whether young people were in care in each month. Proxy markers (e.g. dates of CD4 counts, viral loads (VL)) were used to indicate appointment attendance., Results: Three hundred sixteen patients were in AALPHI, of whom 41% were male, 82% of black African ethnicity and 58% born abroad. At baseline (time of AALPHI interview) median [IQR] age was 17 [15-18] years, median CD4 was 597 [427, 791] cells/µL and 69% had VL ≤50c/mL. 10 patients were dropped due to missing data. 306 YPLPHIV contributed 3,585 person months of follow up across the 12 month study in which a clinic visit was recorded for 1,204 months (38/1204 dropped due to missing data). The remaining 1,166 months were classified into 3 groups: Group-A: on ART, VL ≤ 50c/mL-63%(734/1,166) visit months, Group-B: on ART, VL > 50c/mL-27%(320/1,166) Group-C: not on ART-10%(112/1,166). Most patients were engaged in care with 87% (3,126/3,585) of months fulfilling the definition of engaged in care., Conclusions: The adapted algorithm allowed the varying clinical scenarios of YPLPHIV to be taken into account when measuring EIC. However availability of good quality surveillance data is crucial to ensure that EIC can be measured well., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Cohort studies in adults with HIV showed that dolutegravir was associated with neuropsychiatric adverse events and sleep problems, yet data are scarce in children and adolescents. We aimed to evaluate neuropsychiatric manifestations in children and adolescents treated with dolutegravir-based treatment versus alternative antiretroviral therapy., Methods: This is a secondary analysis of ODYSSEY, an open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority trial, in which adolescents and children initiating first-line or second-line antiretroviral therapy were randomly assigned 1:1 to dolutegravir-based treatment or standard-of-care treatment. We assessed neuropsychiatric adverse events (reported by clinicians) and responses to the mood and sleep questionnaires (reported by the participant or their carer) in both groups. We compared the proportions of patients with neuropsychiatric adverse events (neurological, psychiatric, and total), time to first neuropsychiatric adverse event, and participant-reported responses to questionnaires capturing issues with mood, suicidal thoughts, and sleep problems., Findings: Between Sept 20, 2016, and June 22, 2018, 707 participants were enrolled, of whom 345 (49%) were female and 362 (51%) were male, and 623 (88%) were Black-African. Of 707 participants, 350 (50%) were randomly assigned to dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy and 357 (50%) to non-dolutegravir-based standard-of-care. 311 (44%) of 707 participants started first-line antiretroviral therapy (ODYSSEY-A; 145 [92%] of 157 participants had efavirenz-based therapy in the standard-of-care group), and 396 (56%) of 707 started second-line therapy (ODYSSEY-B; 195 [98%] of 200 had protease inhibitor-based therapy in the standard-of-care group). During follow-up (median 142 weeks, IQR 124-159), 23 participants had 31 neuropsychiatric adverse events (15 in the dolutegravir group and eight in the standard-of-care group; difference in proportion of participants with ≥1 event p=0·13). 11 participants had one or more neurological events (six and five; p=0·74) and 14 participants had one or more psychiatric events (ten and four; p=0·097). Among 14 participants with psychiatric events, eight participants in the dolutegravir group and four in standard-of-care group had suicidal ideation or behaviour. More participants in the dolutegravir group than the standard-of-care group reported symptoms of self-harm (eight vs one; p=0·025), life not worth living (17 vs five; p=0·0091), or suicidal thoughts (13 vs none; p=0·0006) at one or more follow-up visits. Most reports were transient. There were no differences by treatment group in low mood or feeling sad, problems concentrating, feeling worried or feeling angry or aggressive, sleep problems, or sleep quality., Interpretation: The numbers of neuropsychiatric adverse events and reported neuropsychiatric symptoms were low. However, numerically more participants had psychiatric events and reported suicidality ideation in the dolutegravir group than the standard-of-care group. These differences should be interpreted with caution in an open-label trial. Clinicians and policy makers should consider including suicidality screening of children or adolescents receiving dolutegravir., Funding: Penta Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, and UK Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AT reports receiving funding for their service on the ViiV Healthcare advisory board with the payment made to their respective employer. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objective: HIV treatment options remain limited in children. Dolutegravir is a potent and well-tolerated, once-daily HIV-1 integrase inhibitor recommended for HIV-1 infection in both adults and children down to 4 weeks of age. To support pediatric dosing of dolutegravir in children, we used a population pharmacokinetic model with dolutegravir data from the P1093 and ODYSSEY clinical trials. The relationship between dolutegravir exposure and selected safety endpoints was also evaluated., Methods: A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data from P1093 and ODYSSEY to characterize the pharmacokinetics and associated variability and to evaluate the impact of pharmacokinetic covariates. The final population pharmacokinetic model simulated exposures across weight bands, doses, and formulations that were compared with established adult reference data. Exploratory exposure-safety analyses evaluated the relationship between dolutegravir pharmacokinetic parameters and selected clinical laboratory parameters and adverse events., Results: A total of N = 239 participants were included, baseline age ranged from 0.1 to 17.5 years, weight ranged from 3.9 to 91 kg, 50% were male, and 80% were black. The final population pharmacokinetic model was a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination, enabling predictions of dolutegravir concentrations in the pediatric population across weight bands and doses/formulations. The predicted geometric mean trough concentration was comparable to the adult value following a 50-mg daily dose of dolutegravir for all weight bands at recommended doses. Body weight, age, and formulation were significant predictors of dolutegravir pharmacokinetics in pediatrics. Additionally, during an exploratory exposure-safety analysis, no correlation was found between dolutegravir exposure and selected safety endpoints or adverse events., Conclusions: The dolutegravir dosing in children ≥ 4 weeks of age on an age/weight-band basis provides comparable exposures to those historically observed in adults. Observed pharmacokinetic variability was higher in this pediatric population and no additional safety concerns were observed. These results support the weight-banded dosing of dolutegravir in pediatric participants currently recommended by the World Health Organization., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the preferred antiretroviral treatment for children and adolescents living with HIV. A large surveillance study in Botswana previously raised concerns about an association between pre-conception dolutegravir and neural tube defects. Before these concerns were subsequently resolved, we set up a sub-study to look at the effect of dolutegravir on levels of folate and vitamin B12 in children and adolescents within the randomized ODYSSEY trial, as folate and vitamin B12 are known to play a crucial role in neural tube development., Methods: We conducted the sub-study among Ugandan ODYSSEY participants and compared folate and vitamin B12 between children randomized to dolutegravir-based ART (DTG) and non-dolutegravir-based standard-of-care treatment (SOC). Plasma folate was measured at enrolment and week 4 on stored samples; in addition, plasma and red blood cell (RBC) folate and vitamin B12 were assayed at week ≥96 in prospectively collected samples. RBC mean corpuscular volume (MCV) was measured 24-weekly in all ODYSSEY participants. Samples analysed in the sub-study were collected between September 2016 and October 2020., Results: A total of 229 children aged ≥6 years were included in the sub-study with median age at trial enrolment of 12.3 (interquartile range [IQR] 9.0, 14.7) years, and CD4 count of 501 (IQR 228, 695); 112 (49%) children were male. Most participants (225/229, 98%) had plasma folate results at enrolment and 214 (93%) children had results available for RBC folate, vitamin B12 and plasma folate at week ≥96. MCV results were analysed on 679 children aged ≥6 years enrolled in ODYSSEY. At week 4, mean plasma folate was significantly higher in the dolutegravir arm than in SOC (difference [DTG-SOC] 1.6 ng/ml, 95% CI 0.8, 2.3; p<0.001), and this difference persisted to week ≥96 (2.7 ng/ml, 95% CI 1.7, 3.7; p<0.001). Mean RBC folate at ≥96 weeks was also higher in the DTG arm (difference 73 ng/ml, 95% CI 3, 143; p = 0.041). There was no difference in the treatment arms for vitamin B12 levels at ≥96 weeks or change in MCV through trial follow-up., Conclusions: Plasma and RBC folate levels were higher in children and adolescents receiving dolutegravir-based ART than on other ART regimens. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms of these interactions and the clinical implications of increased blood folate levels., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International AIDS Society.)

Background: Young children living with HIV have few treatment options. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children weighing between 3 kg and less than 14 kg., Methods: ODYSSEY is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial (10% margin) comparing dolutegravir-based ART with standard of care and comprises two cohorts (children weighing ≥14 kg and <14 kg). Children weighing less than 14 kg starting first-line or second-line ART were enrolled in seven HIV treatment centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Randomisation, which was computer generated by the trial statistician, was stratified by first-line or second-line ART and three weight bands. Dispersible 5 mg dolutegravir was dosed according to WHO weight bands. The primary outcome was the Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion of children with virological or clinical failure by 96 weeks, defined as: confirmed viral load of at least 400 copies per mL after week 36; absence of virological suppression by 24 weeks followed by a switch to second-line or third-line ART; all-cause death; or a new or recurrent WHO stage 4 or severe WHO stage 3 event. The primary outcome was assessed by intention to treat in all randomly assigned participants. A primary Bayesian analysis of the difference in the proportion of children meeting the primary outcome between treatment groups incorporated evidence from the higher weight cohort (≥14 kg) in a prior distribution. A frequentist analysis was also done of the lower weight cohort (<14 kg) alone. Safety analyses are presented for all randomly assigned children in this study (<14 kg cohort). ODYSSEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02259127., Findings: Between July 5, 2018, and Aug 26, 2019, 85 children weighing less than 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir (n=42) or standard of care (n=43; 32 [74%] receiving protease inhibitor-based ART). Median age was 1·4 years (IQR 0·6-2·0) and median weight 8·1 kg (5·4-10·0). 72 (85%) children started first-line ART and 13 (15%) started second-line ART. Median follow-up was 124 weeks (112-137). By 96 weeks, treatment failure occurred in 12 children in the dolutegravir group (Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion 31%) versus 21 (48%) in the standard-of-care group. The Bayesian estimated difference in treatment failure (dolutegravir minus standard of care) was -10% (95% CI -19% to -2%; p=0·020), demonstrating superiority of dolutegravir. The frequentist estimated difference was -18% (-36% to 2%; p=0·057). 15 serious adverse events were reported in 11 (26%) children in the dolutegravir group, including two deaths, and 19 were reported in 11 (26%) children in the standard-of-care group, including four deaths (hazard ratio [HR] 1·08 [95% CI 0·47-2·49]; p=0·86). 36 adverse events of grade 3 or higher were reported in 19 (45%) children in the dolutegravir group, versus 34 events in 21 (49%) children in the standard-of-care group (HR 0·93 [0·50-1·74]; p=0·83). No events were considered related to dolutegravir., Interpretation: Dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard of care (mainly protease inhibitor-based) with a lower risk of treatment failure in infants and young children, providing support for global dispersible dolutegravir roll-out for younger children and allowing alignment of adult and paediatric treatment., Funding: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, UK Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AT has received funding for her service on the Global Paediatrics Advisory Board between Oct 4, 2021, and Nov 14, 2021, with payments made to the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at University College London. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy is a preferred first-line treatment for adults and children living with HIV; however, very little pharmacokinetic data for dolutegravir use are available in young children. We therefore aimed to evaluate dolutegravir dosing and safety in children weighing 3 kg to less than 20 kg by assessing pharmacokinetic parameters and safety data in children taking dolutegravir within the ODYSSEY trial., Methods: We did pharmacokinetic substudies nested within the open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority ODYSSEY trial. We enrolled children from seven research centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Children weighing 3 kg to less than 14 kg received 5 mg dispersible tablets of dolutegravir according to WHO weight bands: 5 mg for children weighing 3 kg to less than 6 kg and younger than 6 months, 10 mg for children weighing 3 kg to less than 6 kg and aged 6 months or older, 15 mg for children weighing 6 kg to less than 10 kg, and 20 mg for children weighing 10 kg to less than 14 kg. Children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg received a 25 mg film-coated tablet once per day early in the trial or 25 mg dispersible tablets (five 5 mg tablets once per day) later in the trial. A minimum of eight children per weight band or dose was targeted for 24 h pharmacokinetic profiling at steady state. The primary pharmacokinetic parameter was the trough concentration 24 h after observed dolutegravir intake (C trough ). Pharmacokinetic targets were based on adult dolutegravir C trough and the 90% effective concentration (EC 90 ; ie, 0·32 mg/L). Safety was evaluated in eligible children consenting to pharmacokinetic substudies., Findings: Between May 25, 2017, and Aug 15, 2019, we enrolled 72 children aged between 3 months and 11 years. 71 children were included in the safety population and 55 (76%) of 72 children contributed 65 evaluable pharmacokinetic profiles. Geometric mean C trough in children on dispersible tablets in weight bands between 3 kg and less than 20 kg ranged between 0·53-0·87 mg/L, comparable to the adult geometric mean C trough of 0·83 mg/L. Variability was high with coefficient of variation percentages ranging between 50% and 150% compared with 26% in adults. C trough below EC 90 was observed in four (31%) of 13 children weighing 6 kg to less than 10 kg taking 15 mg dispersible tablets, and four (21%) of 19 weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg taking 25 mg film-coated tablets. The lowest geometric mean C trough of 0·44 mg/L was observed in children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg on 25 mg film-coated tablets. Exposures were 1·7-2·0 times higher on 25 mg dispersible tablets versus 25 mg film-coated tablets. 19 (27%) of 71 children had 29 reportable grade 3 or higher adverse events (13 serious adverse events, including two deaths), none of which were related to dolutegravir., Interpretation: Weight-band dosing of paediatric dolutegravir dispersible tablets provides appropriate drug exposure in most children weighing 3 kg to less than 20 kg, with no safety signal. 25 mg film-coated tablets did not achieve pharmacokinetic parameters in children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg, which were comparable to adults, suggesting dosing with dispersible tablets is preferable or a higher film-coated tablet dose is required., Funding: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, and UK Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests DMB has received payments for serving on an advisory board of ViiV Healthcare. DMB, PDJB, HW, and AC have received research funding for Radboudumc Institute for Health Sciences from ViiV Healthcare. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Children with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have limited options for effective antiretroviral treatment (ART)., Methods: We conducted an open-label, randomized, noninferiority trial comparing three-drug ART based on the HIV integrase inhibitor dolutegravir with standard care (non-dolutegravir-based ART) in children and adolescents starting first- or second-line ART. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with virologic or clinical treatment failure by 96 weeks, as estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Safety was assessed., Results: From September 2016 through June 2018, a total of 707 children and adolescents who weighed at least 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir-based ART (350 participants) or standard care (357). The median age was 12.2 years (range, 2.9 to 18.0), the median weight was 30.7 kg (range, 14.0 to 85.0), and 49% of the participants were girls. By design, 311 participants (44%) started first-line ART (with 92% of those in the standard-care group receiving efavirenz-based ART), and 396 (56%) started second-line ART (with 98% of those in the standard-care group receiving boosted protease inhibitor-based ART). The median follow-up was 142 weeks. By 96 weeks, 47 participants in the dolutegravir group and 75 in the standard-care group had treatment failure (estimated probability, 0.14 vs. 0.22; difference, -0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.14 to -0.03; P = 0.004). Treatment effects were similar with first- and second-line therapies (P = 0.16 for heterogeneity). A total of 35 participants in the dolutegravir group and 40 in the standard-care group had at least one serious adverse event (P = 0.53), and 73 and 86, respectively, had at least one adverse event of grade 3 or higher (P = 0.24). At least one ART-modifying adverse event occurred in 5 participants in the dolutegravir group and in 17 in the standard-care group (P = 0.01)., Conclusions: In this trial involving children and adolescents with HIV-1 infection who were starting first- or second-line treatment, dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard care. (Funded by ViiV Healthcare; ODYSSEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02259127; EUDRACT number, 2014-002632-14; and ISRCTN number, ISRCTN91737921.)., (Copyright © 2021 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Background: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is highly effective and well-tolerated in adults and is rapidly being adopted globally. We describe the design of the ODYSSEY trial which evaluates the efficacy and safety of DTG-based ART compared with standard-of-care in children and adolescents. The ODYSSEY trial includes nested pharmacokinetic (PK) sub-studies which evaluated pragmatic World Health Organization (WHO) weight-band-based DTG dosing and opened recruitment to children < 14 kg while dosing was in development., Methods: ODYSSEY (Once-daily DTG based ART in Young people vS. Standard thErapY) is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority, basket trial comparing the efficacy and safety of DTG + 2 nucleos(t) ides (NRTIs) versus standard-of-care (SOC) in HIV-infected children < 18 years starting first-line ART (ODYSSEY A) or switching to second-line ART (ODYSSEY B). The primary endpoint is clinical or virological failure by 96 weeks., Results: Between September 2016 and June 2018, 707 children weighing ≥14 kg were enrolled; including 311 ART-naïve children and 396 children starting second-line. 47% of children were enrolled in Uganda, 21% Zimbabwe, 20% South Africa, 9% Thailand, 4% Europe. 362 (51%) participants were male; median age [range] at enrolment was 12.2 years [2.9-18.0]. 82 (12%) children weighed 14 to < 20 kg, 135 (19%) 20 to < 25 kg, 206 (29%) 25 to < 35 kg, 284 (40%) ≥35 kg. 128 (18%) had WHO stage 3 and 60 (8%) WHO stage 4 disease. Challenges encountered include: (i) running the trial across high- to low-income countries with differing frequencies of standard-of-care viral load monitoring; (ii) evaluating pragmatic DTG dosing in PK sub-studies alongside FDA- and EMA-approved dosing and subsequently transitioning participants to new recommended doses; (iii) delays in dosing information for children weighing 3 to < 14 kg and rapid recruitment of ART-naïve older/heavier children, which led to capping recruitment of participants weighing ≥35 kg in ODYSSEY A and extending recruitment (above 700) to allow for ≥60 additional children weighing between 3 to < 14 kg with associated PK; (iv) a safety alert associated with DTG use during pregnancy, which required a review of the safety plan for adolescent girls., Conclusions: By employing a basket design, to include ART-naïve and -experienced children, and nested PK sub-studies, the ODYSSEY trial efficiently evaluates multiple scientific questions regarding dosing and effectiveness of DTG-based ART in children., Trial Registration: NCT, NCT02259127 , registered 7th October 2014; EUDRACT, 2014-002632-14, registered 18th June 2014 ( https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2014-002632-14/ES ); ISRCTN, ISRCTN91737921 , registered 4th October 2014.

Background: Paediatric dolutegravir doses approved by stringent regulatory authorities (SRAs) for children weighing 20 kg to less than 40 kg until recently required 25 mg and 10 mg film-coated tablets. These tablets are not readily available in low-resource settings where the burden of HIV is highest. We did nested pharmacokinetic substudies in patients enrolled in the ODYSSEY-trial to evaluate simplified dosing in children with HIV., Methods: We did pharmacokinetic and safety substudies within the open-label, multicentre, randomised ODYSSEY trial (NCT02259127) of children with HIV starting treatment in four research centres in Uganda and Zimbabwe. Eligible children were randomised to dolutegravir in ODYSSEY and weighed 20 kg to less than 40 kg. In children weighing 20 kg to less than 25 kg, we assessed dolutegravir's pharmacokinetics in children given once daily 25 mg film-coated tablets (approved by the SRAs at the time of the study) in part one of the study, and 50 mg film-coated tablets (adult dose) or 30 mg dispersible tablets in part two of the study. In children weighing 25 kg to less than 40 kg, we also assessed dolutegravir pharmacokinetics within-subject on film-coated tablet doses of 25 mg or 35 mg once daily, which were approved by the SRAs for the children's weight band; then switched to 50 mg film-coated tablets once daily. Steady-state 24 h dolutegravir plasma concentration-time pharmacokinetic profiling was done in all enrolled children at baseline and 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 24 h after observed dolutegravir intake. Target dolutegravir trough concentrations (C trough ) were based on reference adult pharmacokinetic data and safety was evaluated in all children in the corresponding weight bands who consented to pharmacokinetic studies and received the studied doses., Findings: Between Sept 22, 2016, and May 31, 2018, we enrolled 62 black-African children aged from 6 years to younger than 18 years (84 pharmacokinetic-profiles). In children weighing 20 kg to less than 25 kg taking 25 mg film-coated tablets, the geometric mean (GM) C trough (coefficient of variation) was 0·32 mg/L (94%), which was 61% lower than the GM C trough of 0·83 mg/L (26%) in fasted adults on dolutegravir 50 mg once-daily; in children weighing 25 kg to less than 30 kg taking 25 mg film-coated tablets, the GM C trough was 0·39 mg/L (48%), which was 54% lower than the GM C trough in fasted adults; and in those 30 kg to less than 40 kg taking 35 mg film-coated tablets the GM C trough was 0·46 mg/L (63%), which was 45% lower than the GM C trough in fasted adults. On 50 mg film-coated tablets or 30 mg dispersible tablets, C trough was close to the adult reference (with similar estimates on the two formulations in children in the 20 to <25 kg weight band), with total exposure (area under the concentration-time curve from 0 h to 24 h) in between reference values in adults dosed once and twice daily, where safety data are reassuring, although maximum concentrations were higher in children weighing 20 kg to less than 25 kg than in the twice-daily adult reference. Over a 24-week follow-up period in 47 children on 30 mg dispersible tablets or 50 mg film-coated tablets, none of the three reported adverse events (cryptococcal meningitis, asymptomatic anaemia, and asymptomatic neutropenia) were considered related to dolutegravir., Interpretation: Adult dolutegravir 50 mg film-coated tablets given once daily provide appropriate pharmacokinetic profiles in children weighing 20 kg or more, with no safety signal, allowing simplified practical dosing and rapid access to dolutegravir. These results informed the WHO 2019 dolutegravir paediatric dosing guidelines and have led to US Food and Drug Administration approval of adult dosing down to 20 kg., Funding: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The impact of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) remains uncertain. Starting supplements depends upon current weight-for-age or other acute malnutrition indicators, producing time-dependent confounding. However, weight-for-age at ART initiation may affect subsequent weight gain, independent of supplement use. Implications for marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) are unclear., Methods: In the ARROW trial, non-randomised supplement use and weight-for-age were recorded monthly from ART initiation. The effect of supplements on weight-for-age over the first year was estimated using generalised estimating equation MSMs with IPTW, both with and without interaction terms between baseline weight-for-age and time. Separately, data were simulated assuming no supplement effect, with use depending on current weight-for-age, and weight-for-age trajectory depending on baseline weight-for-age to investigate potential bias associated with different MSM specifications., Results: In simulations, despite correctly specifying IPTW, omitting an interaction in the MSM between baseline weight-for-age and time produced increasingly biased estimates as associations between baseline weight-for-age and subsequent weight trajectory increased. Estimates were unbiased when the interaction between baseline weight-for-age and time was included, even if the data were simulated with no such interaction. In ARROW, without an interaction the estimated effect was +0.09 (95%CI +0.02,+0.16) greater weight-for-age gain per month's supplement use; this reduced to +0.03 (-0.04,+0.10) including the interaction., Discussion: This study highlights a specific situation in which MSM model misspecification can occur and impact the resulting estimate. Since an interaction in the MSM (outcome) model does not bias the estimate of effect if the interaction does not exist, it may be advisable to include such a term when fitting MSMs for repeated measures., Competing Interests: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: RF is now an employee of Boehringer-Ingelheim (BI). This work was conducted prior to the employment and BI had no involvement. No other authors have competing interests. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and material.

Introduction: As prevalence of undiagnosed HIV declines, it is unclear whether testing programmes will be cost-effective. To guide their HIV testing programmes, countries require appropriate metrics that can be measured. The cost-per-diagnosis is potentially a useful metric., Methods: We simulated a series of setting-scenarios for adult HIV epidemics and ART programmes typical of settings in southern Africa using an individual-based model and projected forward from 2018 under two policies: (i) a minimum package of "core" testing (i.e. testing in pregnant women, for diagnosis of symptoms, in sex workers, and in men coming forward for circumcision) is conducted, and (ii) core-testing as above plus additional testing beyond this ("additional-testing"), for which we specify different rates of testing and various degrees to which those with HIV are more likely to test than those without HIV. We also considered a plausible range of unit test costs. The aim was to assess the relationship between cost-per-diagnosis and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the additional-testing policy. The discount rate used in the base case was 3% per annum (costs in 2018 U.S. dollars)., Results: There was a strong graded relationship between the cost-per-diagnosis and the ICER. Overall, the ICER was below $500 per-DALY-averted (the cost-effectiveness threshold used in primary analysis) so long as the cost-per-diagnosis was below $315. This threshold cost-per-diagnosis was similar according to epidemic and programmatic features including the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, the HIV incidence and a measure of HIV programme quality (the proportion of HIV diagnosed people having a viral load <1000 copies/mL). However, restricting to women, additional-testing did not appear cost-effective even at a cost-per-diagnosis of below $50, while restricting to men additional-testing was cost-effective up to a cost-per-diagnosis of $585. The threshold cost per diagnosis for testing in men to be cost-effective fell to $256 when the cost-effectiveness threshold was $300 instead of $500, and to $81 when considering a discount rate of 10% per annum., Conclusions: For testing programmes in low-income settings in southern African there is an extremely strong relationship between the cost-per-diagnosis and the cost-per-DALY averted, indicating that the cost-per-diagnosis can be used to monitor the cost-effectiveness of testing programmes., (© 2019 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.)

For HIV-infected children, formulation development, pharmacokinetic (PK) data, and evaluation of early toxicity are critical for licensing new antiretroviral drugs; direct evidence of efficacy in children may not be needed if acceptable safety and PK parameters are demonstrated in children. However, it is important to address questions where adult trial data cannot be extrapolated to children. In this fast-moving area, interventions need to be tailored to resource-limited settings where most HIV-infected children live and take account of decreasing numbers of younger HIV-infected children after successful prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission. Innovative randomized controlled trial (RCT) designs enable several questions relevant to children's treatment and care to be answered within the same study. We reflect on key considerations, and, with examples, discuss the relative merits of different RCT designs for addressing multiple scientific questions including parallel multi-arm RCTs, factorial RCTs, and cross-over RCTs. We discuss inclusion of several populations (eg, untreated and pretreated children; children and adults) in "basket" trials; incorporation of secondary randomizations after enrollment and use of nested substudies (particularly PK and formulation acceptability) within large RCTs. We review the literature on trial designs across other disease areas in pediatrics and rare diseases and discuss their relevance for addressing questions relevant to HIV-infected children; we provide an example of a Bayesian trial design in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and consider this approach for future pediatric trials. Finally, we discuss the relevance of these approaches to other areas, in particular, childhood tuberculosis and hepatitis.

Adolescents with perinatal HIV (PHIV) may be at higher risk of anxiety and depression than HIV negative young people. We investigated prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms in 283 PHIV and 96 HIV-affected (HIV-negative) young people in England recruited into the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. We used Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) scores and linear regression investigated predictors of higher (worse) scores.115 (41%) and 29 (30%) PHIV and HIV-affected young people were male, median age was 16 [interquartile range 15,18] and 16 [14,18] years and 241 (85%) and 71 (74%) were black African, respectively. There were no differences in anxiety and depression scores between PHIV and HIV-affected participants. Predictors of higher anxiety scores were a higher number of carers in childhood, speaking a language other than English at home, lower self-esteem, ever thinking life was not worth living and lower social functioning. Predictors of higher depression scores were male sex, death of one/both parents, school exclusion, lower self-esteem and lower social functioning. In conclusion, HIV status was not associated with anxiety or depression scores, but findings highlight the need to identify and support young people at higher risk of anxiety and depression.

Background: Weekends off antiretroviral therapy (ART) may help engage HIV-1-infected young people facing lifelong treatment. BREATHER showed short cycle therapy (SCT; 5 days on, 2 days off ART) was non-inferior to continuous therapy (CT) over 48 weeks. Planned follow-up was extended to 144 weeks, maintaining original randomisation., Methods: BREATHER was an open-label, non-inferiority trial. Participants aged 8-24yrs with virological suppression on efavirenz-based first-line ART were randomised 1:1, stratified by age and African/non-African sites, to remain on CT or change to SCT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the proportion of participants with viral rebound (confirmed VL≥50 copies/mL) under intent-to-treat at 48 weeks (primary outcome), and in extended follow-up at 96, 144, and 192 weeks. SCT participants returned to CT following viral rebound, 3 VL blips or discontinuation of efavirenz., Findings: Of 199 participants (99 SCT, 100 CT), 97 per arm consented to extended follow-up. Median follow-up was 185.3 weeks (IQR 160.9-216.1). 69 (70%) SCT participants remained on SCT at last follow-up. 105 (53%) were male, baseline median age 14 years (IQR 12-18), median CD4 count 735 cells/μL (IQR 576-968). 16 SCT and 16 CT participants had confirmed VL≥50 copies/mL by the end of extended follow-up (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.50-2.00). Estimated difference in percentage with viral rebound (SCT minus CT) by week 144 was 1.9% (90% CI -6.6-10.4; p = 0.72) and was similar in a per-protocol analysis. There were no significant differences between arms in proportions of participants with grade 3/4 adverse events (18 SCT vs 16 CT participants; p = 0.71) or ART-related adverse events (10 vs 12; p = 0.82). 20 versus 8 serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported in 16 SCT versus 4 CT participants, respectively (p = 0.005 comparing proportions between groups; incidence rate ratio 2.49, 95%CI 0.71-8.66, p = 0.15). 75% of SAEs (15 SCT, 6 CT) were hospitalisations for a wide range of conditions. 3 SCT and 6 CT participants switched to second-line ART following viral failure (p = 0.50)., Conclusions: Sustainable non-inferiority of virological suppression in young people was shown for SCT versus CT over median 3.6 years. Standard-dose efavirenz-based SCT is a viable option for virologically suppressed HIV-1 infected young people on first-line ART with 3-monthly VL monitoring., Trial Registration: EudraCT 2009-012947-40 ISRCTN 97755073 ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01641016.

Objectives: To analyze the cost effectiveness of short-cycle therapy (SCT), where patients take antiretroviral (ARV) drugs 5 consecutive days a week and have 2 days off, as an alternative to continuous ARV therapy for young people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and taking efavirenz-based first-line ARV drugs., Methods: We conduct a hierarchical cost-effectiveness analysis based on data on clinical outcomes and resource use from the BREATHER trial. BREATHER is a randomized trial investigating the effectiveness of SCT and continuous therapy in 199 participants aged 8 to 24 years and taking efavirenz-based first-line ARV drugs in 11 countries worldwide. Alongside nationally representative unit costs/prices, these data were used to estimate costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). An incremental cost-effectiveness comparison was performed using a multilevel bivariate regression approach for total costs and QALYs. Further analyses explored cost-effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries with access to low-cost generic ARV drugs and high-income countries purchasing branded ARV drugs, respectively., Results: At 48 weeks, SCT offered significant total cost savings over continuous therapy of US dollar (USD) 41 per patient in countries using generic drugs and USD 4346 per patient in countries using branded ARV drugs, while accruing nonsignificant total health benefits of 0.008 and 0.009 QALYs, respectively. Cost-effectiveness estimates were similar across settings with access to generic ARV drugs but showed significant variation among high-income countries where branded ARV drugs are purchased., Conclusion: SCT is a cost-effective treatment alternative to continuous therapy for young people infected with HIV in countries where viral load monitoring is available.

Background: The Lablite project captured information on access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) at larger health facilities ('hubs') and lower-level health facilities ('spokes') in Phalombe district, Malawi and in Kalungu district, Uganda., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among patients who had transferred to a spoke after treatment initiation (Malawi, n=54; Uganda, n=33), patients who initiated treatment at a spoke (Malawi, n=50; Uganda, n=44) and patients receiving treatment at a hub (Malawi, n=44; Uganda, n=46)., Results: In Malawi, 47% of patients mapped to the two lowest wealth quintiles (Q1-Q2); patients at spokes were poorer than at a hub (57% vs 23% in Q1-Q2; p<0.001). In Uganda, 7% of patients mapped to Q1-Q2; patients at the rural spoke were poorer than at the two peri-urban facilities (15% vs 4% in Q1-Q2; p<0.001). The median travel time one way to a current ART facility was 60 min (IQR 30-120) in Malawi and 30 min (IQR 20-60) in Uganda. Patients who had transferred to the spokes reported a median reduction in travel time of 90 min in Malawi and 30 min in Uganda, with reductions in distance and food costs., Conclusions: Decentralizing ART improves access to treatment. Community-level access to treatment should be considered to further minimize costs and time., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.)

Introduction: With improved survival, adolescents with perinatal HIV (PHIV) are transitioning from paediatric to adult care, but there are few published data on clinical outcomes post-transfer. Using linked data from patients in the national UK/Ireland paediatric cohort (CHIPS) and an adult UK cohort of outpatient clinics (UK CHIC), we describe mortality and changes in immunological status post-transfer., Methods: Participants in CHIPS aged ≥13 years by the end of 2013 were linked to the UK CHIC database. Mixed effects models explored changes in CD4 count before and after transfer, including interactions between time and variables where interaction p  < 0.05., Results: Of 1,215 paediatric participants aged ≥13 years, 271 (22%) had linked data in UK CHIC. One hundred and forty-six (53%) were female, median age at last visit in paediatric care was 17 [interquartile range, IQR 16,18] years, median duration in paediatric care was 11.8 [6.6,15.5] years, and in adult care was 2.9 [1.5,5.9] years. At last visit in paediatric care, 74% ( n  = 200) were on ART, increasing to 84% ( n  = 228, p  = 0.001) at last visit in adult care. In the 12 months before leaving paediatric care, 92 (47%) had two consecutive viral loads >400 copies/mL or one viral load >10,000 copies/mL, and likewise 102 (52%) in the 12 months post-transfer ( p  = 0.79). Seven (3%) people died in adult care. In multivariable analysis, CD4 declined as patients approached transition with a greater decline in those with higher nadir CD4 count (mean rates of decline of 3, 13, 15, 30 cells/mm 3 per year for those with nadir CD4 < 100, 100-199, 200-299 and ≥300 cells/mm 3 , respectively). Post-transition, CD4 continued to decline in some groups (e.g. black males, -20 (-34, -5) cells/mm 3 per year post transition, p  = 0.007)) while it improved in others. Overall CD4 was higher with later year of birth (14 (7, 21) cells/mm 3 per later year). There was no effect of age at transfer or changing hospital at transfer on CD4., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that CD4 in adolescents with perinatal HIV in the UK was declining in the period before transition to adult care, and there was some reversal in this trend post-transfer in some groups. Across the transition period, CD4 was higher in those with later birth years, suggesting improvements in clinical care and/or transition planning over time., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Background: Lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women (Option B+) was rolled out in Zimbabwe from 2014, with simultaneous raising of the CD4 treatment threshold to 500 cells per cubic millimeter in nonpregnant/breastfeeding adults and children 5 years and over., Methods: Lablite is an implementation project in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Uganda evaluating ART rollout. Routine patient-level data were collected for 6 months before and 12 months after Option B+ rollout at a district hospital and 3 primary care facilities in Zimbabwe (2 with outreach ART and 1 with no ART provision before Option B+)., Results: Between September 2013 and February 2015, there were 1686 ART initiations in the 4 facilities: 91% adults and 9% children younger than 15 years. In the 3 facilities with established ART, initiations rose from 300 during 6 months before Option B+ to 869 (2.9-fold) and 463 (1.5-fold), respectively, 0-6 months and 6-12 months after Option B+. Post-Option B+, an estimated 43% of pregnant/breastfeeding women needed ART for their own health, based on World Health Organization stage 3/4 or CD4 ≤350 per cubic millimeter (64% for CD4 ≤500). Seventy-four men (22%) and 123 nonpregnant/breastfeeding women (34%) initiated ART with CD4 >350 after the CD4 threshold increase. Estimated 12-month retention on ART was 79% (69%-87%) in Option B+ women (significantly lower in younger women, P = 0.01) versus 93% (91%-95%) in other adults (difference P < 0.001)., Conclusions: There were increased ART initiations in all patient groups after implementation of World Health Organization 2013 guidelines. Retention of Option B+ women was poorer than retention of other adults; younger women require attention because they are more likely to disengage from care.

Background: We conducted unlinked cross-sectional population-based surveys in Northern Uganda before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision (including Option B+ [lifelong ART for pregnant/breast-feeding women]) at a local primary care facility (Lira Kato Health Centre [HC]). Prior to decentralisation, people travelled 56-76 km round-trip for ART; we aimed to evaluate changes in uptake of HIV-testing, ART coverage and access to ART following decentralisation., Methods: A total of 2124 adults in 1351 households in two parishes closest to Lira Kato HC were interviewed using questionnaires between March and April 2013 and 2123 adults in 1229 households between January and March 2015., Results: Adults reporting HIV-testing in the last year increased from 1077/2124 (50.7%) to 1298/2123 (61.1%) between surveys (p<0.001). ART coverage increased from 74/136 (54.4%) self-reported HIV-positive adults in 2013 to 108/133 (81.2%) in 2015 (p<0.001). Post-decentralisation, 47/108 (43.5%) of those on ART were in care at Lira Kato HC (including 37 new initiations). Most of the remainder (47/61, 77%) started ART prior to any ART provision at Lira Kato HC; the most common reason given for not accessing ART locally was concern about drug-stock-outs (30/59, 51%)., Conclusions: HIV-testing and ART coverage increased after decentralisation combined with Option B+ roll-out. However, patients on ART before decentralisation were reluctant to transfer to their local facility., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Interventions based around objective measurement of adherence to antiretroviral drugs for HIV have potential to improve adherence and to enable differentiation of care such that clinical visits are reduced in those with high adherence. It would be useful to understand the approximate upper limit of cost that could be considered for such interventions of a given effectiveness in order to be cost effective. Such information can guide whether to implement an intervention in the light of a trial showing a certain effectiveness and cost., Methods: An individual-based model, calibrated to Zimbabwe, which incorporates effects of adherence and resistance to antiretroviral therapy, was used to model the potential impact of adherence monitoring-based interventions on viral suppression, death rates, disability adjusted life years and costs. Potential component effects of the intervention were: enhanced average adherence when on ART, reduced risk of ART discontinuation, and reduced risk of resistance acquisition. We considered a situation in which viral load monitoring is not available and one in which it is. In the former case, it was assumed that care would be differentiated based on the adherence level, with fewer clinic visits in those demonstrated to have high adherence. In the latter case, care was assumed to be primarily differentiated according to viral load level. The maximum intervention cost required to be cost effective was calculated based on a cost effectiveness threshold of $500 per DALY averted., Findings: In the absence of viral load monitoring, an adherence monitoring-based intervention which results in a durable 6% increase in the proportion of ART experienced people with viral load < 1000 cps/mL was cost effective if it cost up to $50 per person-year on ART, mainly driven by the cost savings of differentiation of care. In the presence of viral load monitoring availability, an intervention with a similar effect on viral load suppression was cost-effective when costing $23-$32 per year, depending on whether the adherence intervention is used to reduce the level of need for viral load measurement., Conclusion: The cost thresholds identified suggest that there is clear scope for adherence monitoring-based interventions to provide net population health gain, with potential cost-effective use in situations where viral load monitoring is or is not available. Our results guide the implementation of future adherence monitoring interventions found in randomized trials to have health benefit., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Lablite is an implementation project supporting and studying decentralized antiretroviral therapy (ART) rollout to rural communities in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Task shifting is one of the strategies to deal with shortage of health care workers (HCWs) in ART provision. Evaluating Human Resources for Health (HRH) optimization is essential for ensuring access to ART. The Lablite project started with a baseline survey whose aim was to describe and compare national and intercountry delivery of ART services including training, use of laboratories and clinical care., Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between October 2011 and August 2012 in a sample of 81 health facilities representing different regions, facility levels and experience of ART provision in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Using a questionnaire, data were collected on facility characteristics, human resources and service provision. Thirty three (33) focus group discussions were conducted with HCWs in a subset of facilities in Malawi and Zimbabwe., Results: The survey results showed that in Malawi and Uganda, primary care facilities were run by non-physician clinical officers/medical assistants while in Zimbabwe, they were run by nurses/midwives. Across the three countries, turnover of staff was high especially among nurses. Between 10 and 20% of the facilities had at least one clinical officer/medical assistant leave in the 3 months prior to the study. Qualitative results show that HCWs in ART and non-ART facilities perceived a shortage of staff for all services, even prior to the introduction of ART provision. HCWs perceived the introduction of ART as having increased workload. In Malawi, the number of people on ART and hence the workload for HCWs has further increased following the introduction of Option B+ (ART initiation and life-long treatment for HIV positive pregnant and lactating women), resulting in extended working times and concerns that the quality of services have been affected. For some HCWs, perceived low salaries, extended working schedules, lack of training opportunities and inadequate infrastructure for service provision were linked to low job satisfaction and motivation., Conclusions: ART has been decentralized to lower level facilities in the context of an ongoing HRH crisis and staff shortage, which may compromise the provision of high-quality ART services. Task shifting interventions need adequate resources, relevant training opportunities, and innovative strategies to optimize the operationalization of new WHO treatment guidelines which continue to expand the number of people eligible for ART.

Background: Viremia copy-years (VCY), a time-updated measure of cumulative HIV exposure, predicts AIDS/death; although its utility in deciding when to start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of initiating versus deferring cART on risk of AIDS/death by levels of VCY both independent of and within CD4 cell count strata ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter., Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we created a series of nested "trials" corresponding to consecutive months for individuals ≥16 years at seroconversion after 1995 who were cART-naive and AIDS-free. Pooling across all trials, time to AIDS/death by CD4, and VCY strata was compared in those initiating vs. deferring cART using Cox models adjusted for: country, sex, risk group, seroconversion year, age, time since last HIV-RNA, and current CD4, VCY, HIV-RNA, and mean number of previous CD4/HIV-RNA measurements/year., Results: Of 9353 individuals, 5312 (57%) initiated cART and 486 (5%) acquired AIDS/died. Pooling CD4 strata, risk of AIDS/death associated with initiating vs. deferring cART reduced as VCY increased. In patients with high CD4 cell counts, ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, there was a trend for a greater reduction for those initiating vs. deferring with increasing VCY (P = 0.09), with the largest benefit in the VCY ≥100,000 copy-years/mL group [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 0.41 (0.19 to 0.87)]., Conclusions: For individuals with CD4 ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, limiting the cumulative HIV burden to <100,000 copy-years/mL through cART may reduce the risk of AIDS/death.

Background: For human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adolescents facing lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART), short-cycle therapy (SCT) with long-acting agents offers the potential for drug-free weekends, less toxicity, better adherence and cost savings., Objectives: To determine whether or not efavirenz (EFV)-based ART in short cycles of 5 days on and 2 days off is as efficacious (in maintaining virological suppression) as continuous EFV-based ART (continuous therapy; CT). Secondary objectives included the occurrence of new clinical HIV events or death, changes in immunological status, emergence of HIV drug resistance, drug toxicity and changes in therapy., Design: Open, randomised, non-inferiority trial., Setting: Europe, Thailand, Uganda, Argentina and the USA., Participants: Young people (aged 8-24 years) on EFV plus two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and with a HIV-1 ribonucleic acid level [viral load (VL)] of < 50 copies/ml for > 12 months., Interventions: Young people were randomised to continue daily ART (CT) or change to SCT (5 days on, 2 days off ART)., Main Outcome Measures: Follow-up was for a minimum of 48 weeks (0, 4 and 12 weeks and then 12-weekly visits). The primary outcome was the difference between arms in the proportion with VL > 50 copies/ml (confirmed) by 48 weeks, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method (12% non-inferiority margin) adjusted for region and age., Results: In total, 199 young people (11 countries) were randomised (n = 99 SCT group, n = 100 CT group) and followed for a median of 86 weeks. Overall, 53% were male; the median age was 14 years (21% ≥ 18 years); 13% were from the UK, 56% were black, 19% were Asian and 21% were Caucasian; and the median CD4% and CD4 count were 34% and 735 cells/mm(3), respectively. By week 48, only one participant (CT) was lost to follow-up. The SCT arm had a 27% decreased drug exposure as measured by the adherence questionnaire and a MEMSCap(™) Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMSCap Inc., Durham, NC, USA) substudy (median cap openings per week: SCT group, n = 5; CT group, n = 7). By 48 weeks, six participants in the SCT group and seven in the CT group had a confirmed VL > 50 copies/ml [difference -1.2%, 90% confidence interval (CI) -7.3% to 4.9%] and two in the SCT group and four in the CT group had a confirmed VL > 400 copies/ml (difference -2.1%, 90% CI -6.2% to 1.9%). All six participants in the SCT group with a VL > 50 copies/ml resumed daily ART, of whom five were resuppressed, three were on the same regimen and two with a switch; two others on SCT resumed daily ART for other reasons. Overall, three participants in the SCT group and nine in the CT group (p = 0.1) changed ART regimen, five because of toxicity, four for simplification reasons, two because of compliance issues and one because of VL failure. Seven young people (SCT group, n = 2; CT group, n = 5) had major non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutations at VL failure, of whom two (n = 1 SCT group, n = 1 CT group) had the M184V mutation. Two young people had new Centers for Disease Control B events (SCT group, n = 1; CT group, n = 1). There were no significant differences between SCT and CT in grade 3/4 adverse events (13 vs. 14) or in serious adverse events (7 vs. 6); there were fewer ART-related adverse events in the SCT arm (2 vs. 14; p = 0.02). At week 48 there was no evidence that SCT led to increased inflammation using an extensive panel of markers. Young people expressed a strong preference for SCT in a qualitative substudy and in pre- and post-trial questionnaires. In total, 98% of the young people are taking part in a 2-year follow-up extension of the trial., Conclusions: Non-inferiority of VL suppression in young people on EFV-based first-line ART with a VL of < 50 copies/ml was demonstrated for SCT compared with CT, with similar resistance, safety and inflammatory marker profiles. The SCT group had fewer ART-related adverse events. Further evaluation of the immunological and virological impact of SCT is ongoing. A limitation of the trial is that the results cannot be generalised to settings where VL monitoring is either not available or infrequent, nor to use of low-dose EFV. Two-year extended follow-up of the trial is ongoing to confirm the durability of the SCT strategy. Further trials of SCT in settings with infrequent VL monitoring and with other antiretroviral drugs such as tenofovir alafenamide, which has a long intracellular half-life, and/or dolutegravir, which has a higher barrier to resistance, are planned., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN97755073; EUDRACT 2009-012947-40; and CTA 27505/0005/001-0001., Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (projects 08/53/25 and 11/136/108), the European Commission through EuroCoord (FP7/2007/2015), the Economic and Social Research Council, the PENTA Foundation, the Medical Research Council and INSERM SC10-US19, France, and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90% plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population are thought to have viral load <500 copies/ml. In the pseudo-epidemic example, HIV estimates have narrower plausibility ranges and are closer to the true number, the greater the data availability to calibrate the model. We demonstrate that our method can be applied to settings with less data, however plausibility ranges for estimates will be wider to reflect greater uncertainty of the data used to fit the model.

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1 to 3 months for clinical assessment. The clinic costs are comparable with the costs of the drugs themselves and CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, but patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes, a transition to more cost-effective delivery of antiretroviral therapy is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (the viral load) provides a direct measure of the current treatment effect. Viral-load-informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care so that those with suppressed viral load visit the clinic less frequently and attention is focussed on those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach to measuring viral load in many countries is to collect dried blood spot samples for testing in regional laboratories; however, there have been concerns over the sensitivity and specificity of this approach to define treatment failure and the delay in returning results to the clinic. We use modelling to synthesize evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral-load-informed differentiated care, accounting for limitations of dried blood sample testing. We find that viral-load-informed differentiated care using dried blood sample testing is cost-effective and is a recommended strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of point-of-care viral load tests that may become available in the future.

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003-2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm(3) or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Background: Studies have demonstrated that self-testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is highly acceptable among individuals and could allow cost savings, compared with provider-delivered HIV testing and counseling (PHTC), although the longer-term population-level effects are uncertain. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of introducing self-testing in 2015 over a 20-year time frame in a country such as Zimbabwe., Methods: The HIV synthesis model was used. Two scenarios were considered. In the reference scenario, self-testing is not available, and the rate of first-time and repeat PHTC is assumed to increase from 2015 onward, in line with past trends. In the intervention scenario, self-testing is introduced at a unit cost of $3., Results: We predict that the introduction of self-testing would lead to modest savings in healthcare costs of $75 million, while averting around 7000 disability-adjusted life-years over 20 years. Findings were robust to most variations in assumptions; however, higher cost of self-testing, lower linkage to care for people whose diagnosis is a consequence of a positive self-test result, and lower threshold for antiretroviral therapy eligibility criteria could lead to situations in which self-testing is not cost-effective., Conclusions: This analysis suggests that introducing self-testing offers some health benefits and may well save costs., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings., Methods: An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa., Results: In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis., Interpretation: Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa antiretroviral therapy (ART) is being decentralized from tertiary/secondary care facilities to primary care. The Lablite project supports effective decentralization in 3 countries. It began with a cross-sectional survey to describe HIV and ART services., Methods: 81 purposively sampled health facilities in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe were surveyed., Results: The lowest level primary health centres comprised 16/20, 21/39 and 16/22 facilities included in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe respectively. In Malawi and Uganda most primary health facilities had at least 1 medical assistant/clinical officer, with average 2.5 and 4 nurses/midwives for median catchment populations of 29,275 and 9,000 respectively. Primary health facilities in Zimbabwe were run by nurses/midwives, with average 6 for a median catchment population of 8,616. All primary health facilities provided HIV testing and counselling, 50/53 (94%) cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT), 52/53 (98%) prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) and 30/53 (57%) ART management (1/30 post ART-initiation follow-up only). All secondary and tertiary-level facilities provided HIV and ART services. In total, 58/81 had ART provision. Stock-outs during the 3 months prior to survey occurred across facility levels for HIV test-kits in 55%, 26% and 9% facilities in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe respectively; for CPT in 58%, 32% and 9% and for PMTCT drugs in 26%, 10% and 0% of facilities (excluding facilities where patients were referred out for either drug). Across all countries, in facilities with ART stored on-site, adult ART stock-outs were reported in 3/44 (7%) facilities compared with 10/43 (23%) facility stock-outs of paediatric ART. Laboratory services at primary health facilities were limited: CD4 was used for ART initiation in 4/9, 5/6 and 13/14 in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe respectively, but frequently only in selected patients. Routine viral load monitoring was not used; 6/58 (10%) facilities with ART provision accessed centralised viral loads for selected patients., Conclusions: Although coverage of HIV testing, PMTCT and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was high in all countries, decentralization of ART services was variable and incomplete. Challenges of staffing and stock management were evident. Laboratory testing for toxicity and treatment effectiveness monitoring was not available in most primary level facilities.

Study Question: Do injectable and oral contraceptives increase the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in women?, Summary Answer: After adjusting for confounders, evidence of a significantly increased risk of HIV remained for women using injectable depo-medroxyprogesterone (DMPA) (hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (1.06-2.08)) but not for injectable norethisterone-enanthate (Net-En) or oral contraceptive pills (OC)., What Is Known Already: An association between the use of some types of hormonal contraception (HC) methods and an increased risk of HIV, possibly through changes in the genital tract environment and alterations in the immune response, has been previously observed, although not consistently. A recent systematic review of these studies has highlighted the need for more definitive evidence., Study Design, Size, Duration: A secondary data analysis of the MDP301 phase 3 microbicide trial was conducted to estimate the effects of use of different methods of HC on the risk of HIV acquisition in women. HIV-negative women (n = 8663) with a median age of 28 years were included in the analysis; 382 HIV seroconverted by 52 weeks follow-up; 10% of women-years were lost to follow-up before 52 weeks., Participants/materials, Setting, Methods: Contraceptive use was reported at each 4-weekly visit. Cox proportional hazards (PH) models were used to estimate the effects of baseline and current use of injectable DMPA, injectable Net-En and OC compared with no HC, on the risk of HIV, adjusting for baseline and time-updated covariates. Causal effects for 52 weeks of HC use compared with no HC were estimated in a weighted Cox model, censoring women at deviation from baseline HC use (or non-use) or pregnancy., Main Results and the Role of Chance: At baseline, 2499 (29%) women were on DMPA, 1180 (14%) on Net-En, and 1410 (16%) on OC; 3574 (40%) not on HC, started HC in follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for baseline HC use, compared with no HC, were 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.78) for DMPA; 1.18 (0.86-1.62) for Net-En and 0.97 (0.68-1.38) for OC. The estimated causal effects of DMPA and Net-En over 52 weeks were: HR = 1.49 (95% CI 1.06-2.08) and HR = 1.31 (95% CI 0.62-1.61), respectively., Limitations, Reasons for Caution: A main limitation of the study was that it was a secondary analysis of data from a study that was not designed to investigate this question. Despite our best efforts, we cannot exclude residual confounding to explain the effect of DMPA., Wider Implications of the Findings: The results of this study should be reviewed by the World Health Organization to determine whether current recommendations on the use of DMPA in settings with high HIV prevalence require modification., Study Funding/competing Interests: MDP is a partnership of African and European academic/government institutions with commercial organizations, which is funded by the UK Government (DFID and MRC), with support from IPM and EDCTP. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: None., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology.)

Background: In HIV infection, dynamic marginal structural models have estimated the optimal CD4 for treatment initiation to minimize AIDS/death. The impact of CD4 observation frequency and grace periods (permitted delay to initiation) on the optimal regimen has not been investigated nor has the performance of dynamic marginal structural models in moderately sized data sets-two issues that are relevant to many applications., Methods: To determine optimal regimens, we simulated 31,000,000 HIV-infected persons randomized at CD4 500-550 cells/mm to regimens "initiate treatment within a grace period following observed CD4 first 0.5% lower AIDS-free survival compared with the true optimal regimen., Conclusions: The optimal regimen is strongly influenced by CD4 frequency and less by grace period length. Dynamic marginal structural models lack precision at moderate sample sizes.

Background: There are few medium-term virologic data in children from resource-limited settings taking adult fixed-dose-combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) without viral load monitoring., Methods: CHAP2 (Children with HIV Antibiotic Prophylaxis 2) is a prospective cohort of Zambian children using d4T/3TC/NVP adult Triomune30 dosed according to WHO guidelines., Results: A total of 103 children (19 with previous antiretroviral therapy) had follow-up >6 months. Median age at cART initiation was 8 years (IQR, 6-12) and CD4 8% (4-12). At 24 months, CD4% had increased by a median of 15% (7-25). For 74 children viral load was known/inferred: 51 of 74 (69%) had viral load <50 copies/mL (45 of 63 [71%] with no previous cART, 6 of 11 [55%] with previous cART; difference P = 0.30); 22 of 74 (30%) had viral load >1000 copies/mL. Of 26 children with resistance data, 25 (96%) had NNRTI resistance; 22 (84%) had M184V; 2 (8%) had Q151M; and 1 (4%) each had K65R, L74V, or K70E. Eight (31%) had > or =1 TAM. Those failing virologically with a genotypic sensitivity score of 0 for first-line therapy had a somewhat smaller increase in CD4% from baseline compared with those failing therapy with a genotypic sensitivity score >0 (+3 vs. +8, P = 0.13), and had somewhat lower CD4% at initiation of cART (2 vs. 11, P = 0.09). In 6 children with >1 resistance test, the estimated rate of accumulation of TAMs was 0.59/yr (95% confidence interval: 0.22-1.29)., Conclusions: Twenty-four month virologic responses to cART were good. However, the rate of TAM accumulation in those with rebound was higher than reported in Western adult cohorts, and there was some indication of a detrimental effect of high level resistance on CD4% change from baseline.

Background: Data on the population effectiveness of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected African children are few., Methods: A total of 534 Zambian children with HIV infection were randomized to receive daily cotrimoxazole prophylaxis or placebo in the Children with HIV Antibiotic Prophylaxis trial. Following trial closure, children who received the placebo initiated cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, and all children were observed in a closed cohort. Mortality and hospital admission rates were compared, over calendar time, in 9-month periods: trial recruitment (March 2001 to April 2002, May 2002 to January 2003), trial follow-up to closure (February 2003 to October 2003), initial follow-up posttrial (November 2003 to July 2004), and early and later ART availability (August 2004 to April 2005, and May 2005 to May 2006, respectively)., Results: A total of 546 child-years of follow-up, 40 deaths, and 80 hospital admissions were observed between the time of trial closure and June 2006. A total of 117 of 283 children who were alive at trial closure received ART in the posttrial period (median child age at first use of ART, 8.8 years). Rates decreased in both groups during the trial period, suggesting a survivorship effect. Mortality and hospital admission rates before trial closure were 14 (95% confidence interval [CI], 9-21) deaths per 100 child-years and 24 (95% CI, 15-39) hospital admissions per 100 child-years, respectively, for children who were receiving cotrimoxazole, and were 23 (95% CI, 16-34) deaths per 100 child-years and 35 (95% CI, 23-53) hospital admissions per 100 child-years, respectively, for children who were receiving the placebo. After trial closure, rates remained stable in the cotrimoxazole group, but decreased to 15 (95% CI, 8-26) deaths per 100 child-years and 19 (95% CI, 10-41) hospital admissions per 100 child-years, respectively, for the group of children who received placebo and then initiated cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. In both groups combined, mortality rates decreased to 6 (95% CI, 3-11) deaths per 100 child-years and then 2 (95% CI, 0.8-6) deaths per 100 child-years during periods of ART availability; hospital admission rates decreased to 17 (95% CI, 11-27) hospital admissions per 100 child-years and 8 (95% CI, 4-15) hospital admissions per 100 child-years, respectively., Conclusion: The benefits of once-daily cotrimoxazole prophylaxis continued throughout the trial and after trial closure. Mortality and hospital admissions decreased (by approximately 6-fold and approximately 3-fold, respectively) following ART availability, similar to findings observed in resource-rich countries.

Background: Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis reduces morbidity and mortality in HIV-1-infected children, but mechanisms for these benefits are unclear., Methods: CHAP was a randomized trial comparing cotrimoxazole prophylaxis with placebo in HIV-infected children in Zambia where background bacterial resistance to cotrimoxazole is high. We compared causes of mortality and hospital admissions, and antibiotic use between randomized groups., Results: Of 534 children (median age, 4.4 years; 32% 1-2 years), 186 died and 166 had one or more hospital admissions not ending in death. Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was associated with lower mortality, both outside hospital (P = 0.01) and following hospital admission (P = 0.005). The largest excess of hospital deaths in the placebo group was from respiratory infections [22/56 (39%) placebo versus 10/35 (29%) cotrimoxazole]. By 2 years, the cumulative probability of dying in hospital from a serious bacterial infection (predominantly pneumonia) was 7% on cotrimoxazole and 12% on placebo (P = 0.08). There was a trend towards lower admission rates for serious bacterial infections in the cotrimoxazole group (19.1 per 100 child-years at risk versus 28.5 in the placebo group, P = 0.09). Despite less total follow-up due to higher mortality, more antibiotics (particularly penicillin) were prescribed in the placebo group in year one [6083 compared to 4972 days in the cotrimoxazole group (P = 0.05)]., Conclusions: Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis appears to mainly reduce death and hospital admissions from respiratory infections, supported further by lower rates of antibiotic prescribing. As such infections occur at high CD4 cell counts and are common in Africa, the role of continuing cotrimoxazole prophylaxis after starting antiretroviral therapy requires investigation.

It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90% plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population are thought to have viral load <500 copies/ml. In the pseudo-epidemic example, HIV estimates have narrower plausibility ranges and are closer to the true number, the greater the data availability to calibrate the model. We demonstrate that our method can be applied to settings with less data, however plausibility ranges for estimates will be wider to reflect greater uncertainty of the data used to fit the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the CHAP randomized placebo-controlled trial of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in HIV-infected Zambian children conducted between 2001 and 2003, cotrimoxazole was associated with significant mortality reductions. In a secondary analysis we used Cox regression models to estimate the association between adherence measured by bottle weights and caregiver report and subsequent mortality in children surviving >28 days ( n = 496, 153 deaths). Adherence was high and similar in both cotrimoxazole and placebo groups; adherence from bottle weights was 100% at 71% of visits, while caregivers reported 100% adherence at 79% of visits. Every 10% lower adherence to cotrimoxazole or placebo measured by bottle weights was associated with a 10–11% increase in mortality risk. Effects remained after adjustment for baseline predictors of survival and for current and recent change in primary caregiver. Caregiver-reported adherence was not associated with survival. The association between bottle-weight adherence to placebo and survival is likely capturing unmeasured caregiver effects, whose identification will be essential for quantifying the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence on clinical outcomes in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]