Search

Peter Ehrenkranz and co-authors present a cyclical cascade of care for people with HIV infection, aiming to facilitate assessment of outcomes., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: PE is an employee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. SR is a member of PLOS Medicine’s Editorial Board.

Introduction: There are a limited number of paediatric antiretroviral drug options. Characterising the long term safety and durability of different antiretrovirals in children is important to optimise management of HIV infected children and to determine the estimated need for alternative drugs in paediatric regimens. We describe first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) durability and reasons for discontinuations in children at two South African ART programmes, where lopinavir/ritonavir has been recommended for children <3 years old since 2004, and abacavir replaced stavudine as the preferred nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in 2010., Methods: We included children (<16 years at ART initiation) who initiated ≥3 antiretrovirals between 2004-2014 with ≥1 follow-up visit on ART. We estimated the incidence of first antiretroviral discontinuation using Kaplan-Meier analysis. We determined the reasons for antiretroviral discontinuations using competing risks analysis. We used Cox regression to identify factors associated with treatment-limiting toxicity., Results: We included 3579 children with median follow-up duration of 41 months (IQR 14-72). At ART initiation, median age was 44 months (IQR 13-89) and median CD4 percent was 15% (IQR 9-21%). At three and five years on ART, 72% and 26% of children respectively remained on their initial regimen. By five years on ART, the most common reasons for discontinuations were toxicity (32%), treatment failure (18%), treatment simplification (5%), drug interactions (3%), and other or unspecified reasons (18%). The incidences of treatment limiting toxicity were 50.6 (95% CI 46.2-55.4), 1.6 (0.5-4.8), 2.0 (1.2-3.3), and 1.3 (0.6-2.8) per 1000 patient years for stavudine, abacavir, efavirenz and lopinavir/ritonavir respectively., Conclusions: While stavudine was associated with a high risk of treatment-limiting toxicity, abacavir, lopinavir/ritonavir and efavirenz were well-tolerated. This supports the World Health Organization recommendation to replace stavudine with abacavir or zidovudine in paediatric first-line ART regimens in order to improve paediatric first-line ART durability., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs depends on the successful coverage of a series of interventions through pregnancy, intrapartum, and postpartum. Routine monitoring systems based on service data and limited to women on the PMTCT program may overestimate intervention coverage at multiple points along this cascade., Methods: Cord blood specimens with individually linked anonymous demographic and pregnancy data were collected from 3 delivery services in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, and screened for HIV. Seropositive specimens were tested for the presence of antiretrovirals. Comparisons were drawn between documented service data and cord blood findings for HIV seroprevalence and antenatal antiretroviral coverage., Results: A total of 3034 specimens were tested for HIV, 507 (16.7%) of which were HIV seropositive. Of these, 470 (92.7%) were tested for the presence of antiretrovirals, of whom 58.1% had evidence of a standard of care maternal antiretroviral regimen and 73.6% some form of antenatal antiretroviral prophylaxis. Cord blood antiretroviral coverage was lower than that reported by service data. Incomplete antenatal HIV testing accounted for an estimated 46.2% of missed opportunities for transmission reduction., Discussion: Even in this well-resourced setting, HIV screening and ensuring antenatal compliance with prescribed regimens were the most immediate priorities for reducing vertical transmission. Cord blood surveillance offers a unique opportunity to explore missed opportunities using methods not currently possible from routine antenatal and PMTCT program reporting.

Background: The traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary "cyclical" cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting. Methods and findings: This observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality. Conclusions: Using routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades. Jonathan Euvrard and colleagues leverage routinely collected data from a high-burden HIV setting to demonstrate the feasibility of populating a cyclical HIV care cascade as part of routine service provision and to identify care gaps and temporal trends and changes to cascade statuses. Author summary: Why was this study done?: While there had been broad enthusiasm for cyclical representations of the HIV care cascade, the feasibility and utility of populating such representations using routine data in high-burden settings like South Africa are unknown. What did the researchers do and find?: The researchers used routine person-level data from 494 370 people who recently accessed public health services in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, to adapt and populate a cyclical cascade of HIV care. The study uncovered complex patterns of engagement, disengagement, and re-engagement at various cascade points. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Trends over time demonstrated the shift among those starting ART from first-ever HIV engagement to re-engagement and service disruptions resulting from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. What do these findings mean?: With an appropriate data consolidation environment within the health services, it is readily feasible to continuously populate a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade of care using routine administrative and clinical data. The findings provide insights into the complex nature of engagement with HIV care. The identification of disengagement at multiple points on the care journey suggests the need for scalable, inclusive interventions. While historical cascades remain important tools, the cyclical cascade offers a complementary understanding of engagement patterns, contributing to ongoing efforts to refine public health strategies and improve HIV care outcomes. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services and out-of-facility mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate measurement of antenatal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in pregnancy is imperative in tracking progress towards elimination of vertical HIV transmission. In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources, enabling the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal antiretroviral coverage. We evaluated the validity of different methods for measuring ART coverage among pregnant women. Methods: We compared self-reported ART data from a 2014 antenatal survey with laboratory assay data from a sub-sample within the survey population. Thereafter, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies consolidated in the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. ART coverage estimates were triangulated with available antenatal survey estimates, aggregated programmatic data from registers recorded in the District Health Information System (DHIS) and Thembisa modelling estimates. Results: Self-reported ART in the 2014 sentinel antenatal survey (n = 1434) had high sensitivity (83.5%), specificity (94.5%) and agreement (k = 0.8) with the gold standard of laboratory analysis of ART. Based on linked routine data, ART coverage by the time of delivery in mothers of live births increased from 67.4% in 2011 to 94.7% by 2019. This pattern of increasing antenatal ART coverage was also seen in the DHIS data, and estimated by the Thembisa model, but was less consistent in the antenatal survey data. Conclusion: This study is the first in a high-burden HIV setting to compare sentinel ART surveillance data with consolidated individuated administrative data. Although self-report in survey conditions showed high validity, more recent data sources based on self-report and medical records may be uncertain with increasing ART coverage over time. Linked individuated data may offer a promising option for ART coverage estimation with greater granularity and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infants born HIV-exposed yet remain uninfected (HEU) are at increased risk of poorer growth and health compared to infants born HIV-unexposed (HU). Whether maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART) in pregnancy ameliorates this risk of poorer growth is not well understood. Furthermore, whether risks are similar across high burden HIV settings has not been extensively explored.Methods: We harmonized data from two prospective observational studies conducted in Cape Town, South Africa, and Lusaka, Zambia, to compare weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length (WLZ) Z-scores between infants who were HEU and HU, converting infant anthropometric measures using World Health Organisation Growth Standards adjusted for age and sex. Linear mixed effects models were fit to identify risk factors for differences in anthropometrics at 6-10 weeks and 6 months by infant HIV exposures status and by timing of exposure to maternal ART, either from conception or later in gestation.Results: Overall 773 mother-infant pairs were included across two countries: women living with HIV (WLHIV), 51% (n = 395) with 65% on ART at conception and 35% initiating treatment in pregnancy. In linear mixed effects models, WAZ and WLZ at 6-10 weeks were lower among infants who were HEU vs HU [β = - 0.29 (95% CI: - 0.46, - 0.12) and [β = - 0.42 (95% CI: - 0.68, - 0.16)] respectively after adjusting for maternal characteristics and infant feeding with a random intercept for country. At 6 months, LAZ was lower [β = - 0.28 CI: - 0.50, - 0.06)] among infants who were HEU, adjusting for the same variables, with no differences in WAZ and WLZ. Within cohort evaluations identified different results with higher LAZ among infants who were HEU from Zambia at 6-10 weeks, [β = + 0.34 CI: + 0.01, + 0.68)] and lower LAZ among infants who were HEU from South Africa [β = - 0.30 CI: - 0.59, - 0.01)] at 6 months, without other anthropometric differences at either site.Conclusion: Infant growth trajectories differed by country, highlighting the importance of studying contextual influences on outcomes of infants who were HEU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Youth living with HIV (YLWH) are less likely to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and remain in care than older adults. It is important to identify effective strategies to address the needs of this growing population and prevent attrition from HIV care. Since 2008, two clinics have offered youth‐targeted services exclusively to youth aged 12–25 in Khayelitsha, a high HIV‐prevalence, low‐income area in South Africa. We compared ART attrition among youth in these two clinics to youth in regular clinics in the same area. Methods: We conducted a propensity score matched cohort study of individuals aged 12–25 years initiating ART at eight primary care clinics in Khayelitsha between 1 January 2008 and 1 April 2018. We compared attrition, defined as death or loss to follow‐up, between those attending two youth clinics and those attending general primary healthcare clinics, using Cox proportional hazards regression. Follow‐up time began at ART initiation and ended at attrition, clinic transfer or dataset closure. We conducted sub‐analyses of patients attending adherence clubs. Results: The distribution of age, sex and CD4 count at ART initiation was similar across Youth Clinic A (N = 1383), Youth Clinic B (N = 1299) and general clinics (N = 3056). Youth at youth clinics were more likely than those at general clinics to have initiated ART before August 2011 (Youth Clinic A: 16%, Youth Clinic B: 23% and general clinics: 11%). Youth clinics were protective against attrition: HR 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71–0.92) for Youth Clinic A and 0.85 (0.74–0.98) for Youth Clinic B, compared to general clinics. Youth Clinic A club patients had lower attrition after joining an adherence club than general clinic patients in adherence clubs (crude HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32–0.96; adjusted HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.28–0.85), while Youth Clinic B showed no effect (crude HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.48–1.45; adjusted HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.60–1.90). Conclusions: YLWH were more likely to be retained in ART care in two different youth‐targeted clinics compared to general clinics in the same area. Our findings suggest that multiple approaches to making clinics more youth‐friendly can contribute to improving retention in this important group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with the option to start treatment on the day of diagnosis (same-day ART). However, the effect of same-day ART remains unknown in realistic public sector settings. We established a cohort of ≥16-year-old patients who initiated first-line ART under a treat-all policy in Nhlangano (Eswatini) during 2014–2016, either on the day of HIV care enrollment (same-day ART) or 1–14 days thereafter (early ART). Directed acyclic graphs, flexible parametric survival analysis, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) were used to estimate the effect of same-day-ART initiation on a composite unfavorable treatment outcome (loss to follow-up, death, viral failure, treatment switch). Of 1,328 patients, 839 (63.2%) initiated same-day ART. The adjusted hazard ratio of the unfavorable outcome was higher, 1.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.16, 1.89), for same-day ART compared with early ART. TMLE suggested that after 1 year, 28.9% of patients would experience the unfavorable outcome under same-day ART compared with 21.2% under early ART (difference: 7.7%; 1.3%–14.1%). This estimate was driven by loss to follow-up and varied over time, with a higher hazard during the first year after HIV care enrollment and a similar hazard thereafter. We found an increased risk with same-day ART. A limitation was that possible silent transfers that were not captured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) is widely used to protect against tuberculosis (TB) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Data on the safety and efficacy of IPT in pregnant women living with HIV (PWLHIV) are mixed. We used an individual-level, population-wide health database to examine associations between antenatal IPT exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes, maternal TB, all-cause mortality, and liver injury during pregnancy through 12 months postpartum. Methods. We used linked routine electronic health data generated in the public sector of the Western Cape, South Africa, to define a cohort of PWLHIV on antiretroviral therapy. Pregnancy outcomes were assessed using logistic regression; for maternal outcomes we applied a proportional hazards model with time-updated IPT exposure. Results. Of 43 971 PWLHIV, 16.6% received IPT. Women who received IPT were less likely to experience poor pregnancy outcomes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.83 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .78–.87]); this association strengthened with IPT started after the first trimester compared with none (aOR, 0.71 [95% CI, .65–.79]) or with first-trimester exposure (aOR, 0.64 [95% CI, .55–.75]). IPT reduced the risk of TB by approximately 30% (aHR, 0.71 [95% CI, .63–.81]; absolute risk difference, 1518/100 000 women). The effect was modified by CD4 cell count with protection conferred if CD4 count was ≤350 cells/μL (aHR, 0.51 [95% CI, .41–.63]) vs 0.93 [95% CI, .76–1.13] for CD4 count >350 cells/μL). Conclusions. This analysis of programmatic data is reassuring regarding the safety of antenatal IPT, with the greatest benefits against TB disease observed in women with CD4 count ≤350 cells/μL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: High rates of pre-treatment loss to care among persons diagnosed with HIV persist. Linkage to care can be improved through active digitally-based surveillance. Currently, record-keeping for HIV diagnoses in South Africa is paper-based. Aggregated testing data are reported routinely, and only discordant findings result in a specimen being tested at a laboratory and digitised. The Western Cape Province in South Africa has a Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) where person-level routine electronic data are consolidated in a single database, leveraging the existence of a unique patient identifier. To facilitate improved HIV surveillance, a pre-carbonated point-of-care test (PoCT) form was piloted, where one copy was routed to a central point and digitised for PHDC inclusion. Methods: We evaluated the utility of the intervention using cross-sectional and retrospective cohort analyses, as well as comparisons with aggregate data. Data were linked to the Patient Master Index of the PHDC using unique identifiers. Prior evidences of HIV within the PHDC were used to differentiate newly diagnosed patients and those retesting, as well as linkage to care and treatment. Results: From May 2017 to June 2018, 11337 digitised point-of-care HIV testing records were linked to the PHDC. Overall, 96% of records in the aggregate dataset were digitised, with 97% linked to the PHDC. Of those tested, 79% were female (median age 27 years). Linkage demonstrated that 51.3% (95% CI 48.4–54.1%) of patients testing HIV-positive were retesting. Of those newly diagnosed, 81% (95% CI 77.9–84.3%) were linked to HIV care and 25% (95% CI 21.6–28.7%) were initiated on antiretroviral therapy immediately. Conclusion: Digitisation of PoCT results provides individuated HIV testing data to assist in linkage to care and in differentiating newly diagnosed patients from positive patients retesting. Actionable and accurate data can improve the measurement of performance towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies suggest that untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with a reduced incidence of pregnancy, but studies of the effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on pregnancy incidence have been inconsistent.Methods: Routine data from health services in the Western Cape province of South Africa were linked to identify pregnancies during 2007-2017 and maternal HIV records. The time from the first (index) pregnancy outcome date to the next pregnancy was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models.Results: During 2007-2017, 1 042 647 pregnancies were recorded. In all age groups, pregnancy incidence rates were highest in women who had started ART, lower in HIV-negative women, and lowest in ART-naive HIV-positive women. In multivariable analysis, after controlling for the most recent CD4+ T-cell count, pregnancy incidence rates in HIV-positive women receiving ART were higher than those in untreated HIV-positive women (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-1.67) and those in HIV-negative women.Conclusion: Among women who have recently been pregnant, receipt of ART is associated with high rates of second pregnancy. Better integration of family planning into HIV care services is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In South Africa, an estimated 4.6 million people were accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2018. As universal Test and Treat is implemented, these numbers will continue to increase. Given the need for lifelong care for millions of individuals, differentiated service delivery models for ART services such as adherence clubs (ACs) for stable patients are required. In this study, we describe long‐term virologic outcomes of patients who have ever entered ACs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town. Methods: We included adult patients enrolled in ACs in Khayelitsha between January 2011 and December 2016 with a recorded viral load (VL) before enrolment. Risk factors for an elevated VL (VL >1000 copies/mL) and confirmed virologic failure (two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL one year apart) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. VL completeness over time was assessed. Results: Overall, 8058 patients were included in the analysis, contributing 16,047 person‐years of follow‐up from AC entry (median follow‐up time 1.7 years, interquartile range [IQR]:0.9 to 2.9). At AC entry, 74% were female, 46% were aged between 35 and 44 years, and the median duration on ART was 4.8 years (IQR: 3.0 to 7.2). Among patients virologically suppressed at AC entry (n = 8058), 7136 (89%) had a subsequent VL test, of which 441 (6%) experienced an elevated VL (median time from AC entry 363 days, IQR: 170 to 728). Older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46 to 0.88), more recent year of AC entry (aHR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84) and higher CD4 count (aHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) were protective against experiencing an elevated VL. Among patients with an elevated VL, 52% (150/291) with a repeat VL test subsequently experienced confirmed virologic failure in a median time of 112 days (IQR: 56 to 168). Frequency of VL testing was constant over time (82 to 85%), with over 90% of patients remaining virologically suppressed. Conclusions: This study demonstrates low prevalence of elevated VLs and confirmed virologic failure among patients who entered ACs. Although ACs were expanded rapidly, most patients were well monitored and remained stable, supporting the continued rollout of this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Treat‐All policy – antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation irrespective of CD4 cell criteria – increases access to treatment. Many ART programmes, however, reported increasing attrition and viral failure during treatment expansion, questioning the programmatic feasibility of Treat‐All in resource‐limited settings. We aimed to describe and compare programmatic outcomes between Treat‐All and standard of care (SOC) in the public sectors of Eswatini. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of ≥16‐year‐old HIV‐positive patients initiated on first‐line ART under Treat‐All and SOC in 18 health facilities of the Shiselweni region, from October 2014 to March 2016. SOC followed the CD4 350 and 500 cells/mm3 treatment eligibility thresholds. Kaplan‐Meier estimates were used to describe crude programmatic outcomes. Multivariate flexible parametric survival models were built to assess associations of time from ART initiation with the composite unfavourable outcome of all‐cause attrition and viral failure. Results: Of the 3170 patients, 1888 (59.6%) initiated ART under Treat‐All at a median CD4 cell count of 329 (IQR 168 to 488) cells/mm3 compared with 292 (IQR 161 to 430) (p < 0.001) under SOC. Although crude programme retention at 36 months tended to be lower under Treat‐All (71%) than SOC (75%) (p = 0.002), it was similar in covariate‐adjusted analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.23). The hazard of viral suppression was higher for Treat‐All (aHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23), while the hazard of viral failure was comparable (Treat‐All: aHR 0.89, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.49). Among patients with advanced HIV disease (n = 1080), those under Treat‐All (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.44) had a similar risk of an composite unfavourable outcome to SOC. Factors increasing the risk of the composite unfavourable outcome under both interventions were aged 16 to 24 years, being unmarried, anaemia, ART initiation on the same day as HIV care enrolment and CD4 ≤ 100 cells/mm3. Under Treat‐All only, the risk of the unfavourable outcome was higher for pregnant women, WHO III/IV clinical stage and elevated creatinine. Conclusions: Compared to SOC, Treat‐All resulted in comparable retention, improved viral suppression and comparable composite outcomes of retention without viral failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Tropical Medicine & International Health is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: HIV and TB programs have rapidly scaled-up over the past decade in Sub-Saharan Africa and uninterrupted supplies of those medicines are critical to their success. However, estimates of stock-outs are largely unknown. This survey aimed to estimate the extent of stock-outs of antiretroviral and TB medicines in public health facilities across South Africa, which has the world’s largest antiretroviral treatment (ART) program and a rising multidrug-resistant TB epidemic. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional telephonic survey (October—December 2015) of public health facilities. Facilities were asked about the prevalence of stock-outs on the day of the survey and in the preceding three months, their duration and impact. Results: Nationwide, of 3547 eligible health facilities, 79% (2804) could be reached telephonically. 88% (2463) participated and 4% (93) were excluded as they did not provide ART or TB treatment. Of the 2370 included facilities, 20% (485) reported a stock-out of at least 1 ARV and/or TB-related medicine on the day of contact and 36% (864) during the three months prior to contact, ranging from 74% (163/220) of health facilities in Mpumalanga to 12% (32/261) in the Western Cape province. These 864 facilities reported 1475 individual stock-outs, with one to fourteen different medicines out of stock per facility. Information on impact was provided in 98% (1449/1475) of stock-outs: 25% (366) resulted in a high impact outcome, where patients left the facility without medicine or were provided with an incomplete regimen. Of the 757 stock-outs that were resolved 70% (527) lasted longer than one month. Interpretation: There was a high prevalence of stock-outs nationwide. Large interprovincial differences in stock-out occurrence, duration, and impact suggest differences in provincial ability to prevent, mitigate and cope within the same framework. End-user monitoring of the supply chain by patients and civil society has the potential to increase transparency and complement public sector monitoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality amongst those living with HIV and reduce transmission of the virus to those who are yet to be infected. However, these outcomes depend on maximum ART adherence, and HIV programs around the world make efforts to ensure optimal adherence. Predictors of ART non-adherence vary considerably across populations and settings with respect to demographic, psychological, behavioral and economic factors. The objective of this study is to investigate risk factors that predict non-adherence to antiretroviral treatment among HIV-infected individuals in northern Tanzania. Methods: At Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC), a tertiary and referral hospital in northern Tanzania, we used an existing ART database to randomly select HIV-infected patients above 18 years of age who have been on triple ART for at least two years. We used interviewer administered structured questionnaires to cross-sectionally determine predictors of ART non-adherence. We determined non-adherence through retrospective review of pharmacy drug refill (PDR) records of the interviewed participants using a pharmacy database. Results: Non-adherence was defined as collecting less than 95% of expected monthly refills in the previous 2 years. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine the predictors of non-adherence. Of the 256 patients enrolled mean age was 44 years (SD ± 11) and median CD4 count was 499 cells per microliter (IQR 332–690). Median PDR adherence was 71% (IQR 58%–75%). Non-adherence was associated with younger age and unemployment. Conclusion: In this setting, adherence strategies could be adapted to address issues facing young adults, and those with household challenges such as unemployment. Further research is required to better understand the potential roles of these factors in suboptimal adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.Methods and Findings: Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness.Conclusions: ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Retention in care is an essential component of meeting the UNAIDS "90-90-90" HIV treatment targets. In Khayelitsha township (population ~500,000) in Cape Town, South Africa, more than 50,000 patients have received antiretroviral therapy (ART) since the inception of this public-sector program in 2001. Disengagement from care remains an important challenge. We sought to determine the incidence of and risk factors associated with disengagement from care during 2013-2014 and outcomes for those who disengaged.Methods and Findings: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥10 years of age who visited 1 of the 13 Khayelitsha ART clinics from 2013-2014 regardless of the date they initiated ART. We described the cumulative incidence of first disengagement (>180 days not attending clinic) between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2014 using competing risks methods, enabling us to estimate disengagement incidence up to 10 years after ART initiation. We also described risk factors for disengagement based on a Cox proportional hazards model, using multiple imputation for missing data. We ascertained outcomes (death, return to care, hospital admission, other hospital contact, alive but not in care, no information) after disengagement until 30 June 2015 using province-wide health databases and the National Death Registry. Of 39,884 patients meeting our eligibility criteria, the median time on ART to 31 December 2014 was 33.6 months (IQR 12.4-63.2). Of the total study cohort, 592 (1.5%) died in the study period, 1,231 (3.1%) formally transferred out, 987 (2.5%) were silent transfers and visited another Western Cape province clinic within 180 days, 9,005 (22.6%) disengaged, and 28,069 (70.4%) remained in care. Cumulative incidence of disengagement from care was estimated to be 25.1% by 2 years and 50.3% by 5 years on ART. Key factors associated with disengagement (age, male sex, pregnancy at ART start [HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.47-1.69], most recent CD4 count) and retention (ART club membership, baseline CD4) after adjustment were similar to those found in previous studies; however, notably, the higher hazard of disengagement soon after starting ART was no longer present after adjusting for these risk factors. Of the 9,005 who disengaged, the 2 most common initial outcomes were return to ART care after 180 days (33%; n = 2,976) and being alive but not in care in the Western Cape (25%; n = 2,255). After disengagement, a total of 1,459 (16%) patients were hospitalized and 237 (3%) died. The median follow-up from date of disengagement to 30 June 2015 was 16.7 months (IQR 11-22.4). As we included only patient follow-up from 2013-2014 by design in order to maximize the generalizability of our findings to current programs, this limited our ability to more fully describe temporal trends in first disengagement.Conclusions: Twenty-three percent of ART patients in the large cohort of Khayelitsha, one of the oldest public-sector ART programs in South Africa, disengaged from care at least once in a contemporary 2-year period. Fifty-eight percent of these patients either subsequently returned to care (some "silently") or remained alive without hospitalization, suggesting that many who are considered "lost" actually return to care, and that misclassification of "lost" patients is likely common in similar urban populations. A challenge to meeting ART retention targets is developing, testing, and implementing program designs to target mobile populations and retain them in lifelong care. This should be guided by risk factors for disengagement and improving interlinkage of routine information systems to better support patient care across complex care platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Chronic immune activation due to ongoing HIV replication may lead to impaired immune responses against opportunistic infections such as tuberculosis (TB). We studied the role of HIV replication as a risk factor for incident TB after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods: We included all HIV-positive adult patients (=16 years) in care between 2000 and 2014 at three ART programmes in South Africa. Patients with previous TB were excluded. Missing CD4 cell counts and HIV-RNA viral loads at ART start (baseline) and during follow-up were imputed. We used parametric survival models to assess TB incidence (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) by CD4 cell and HIV-RNA levels, and estimated the rate ratios for TB by including age, sex, baseline viral loads, CD4 cell counts, and WHO clinical stage in the model. We also used Poisson general additive regression models with time-updated CD4 and HIV-RNA values, adjusting for age and sex. Results: We included 44,260 patients with a median follow-up time of 2.7 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.0-5.0); 3,819 incident TB cases were recorded (8.6%). At baseline, the median age was 34 years (IQR 28-41); 30,675 patients (69.3%) were female. The median CD4 cell count was 156 cells/µL (IQR 79-229) and the median HIV-RNA viral load 58,000 copies/mL (IQR 6,000-240,000). Overall TB incidence was 26.2/1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.3-27.0). Compared to the lowest viral load category (0-999 copies/mL), the adjusted rate ratio for TB was 1.41 (95% CI 1.15-1.75, p < 0.001) in the highest group (>10,000 copies/mL). Time-updated analyses for CD4/HIV-RNA confirmed the association of viral load with the risk for TB. Conclusions: Our results indicate that ongoing HIV replication is an important risk factor for TB, regardless of CD4 cell counts, and underline the importance of early ART start and retention on ART. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We previously reported that one-third of HIV-positive adults requiring medical admission to a South African district hospital had laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis (TB) and that almost two-thirds of cases could be rapidly diagnosed using Xpert MTB/RIF-testing of concentrated urine samples obtained on the first day of admission. Implementation of urine-based, routine, point-of-care TB screening is an attractive intervention that might be facilitated by use of a simple, low-cost diagnostic tool, such as the Determine TB-LAM lateral-flow rapid test for HIV-associated TB.Methods: Sputum, urine and blood samples were systematically obtained from unselected HIV-positive adults within 24 hours of admission to a South African township hospital. Additional clinical samples were obtained during hospitalization as clinically indicated. TB was defined by the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in any sample using Xpert MTB/RIF or liquid culture. The diagnostic yield, accuracy and prognostic value of urine-lipoarabinomannan (LAM) testing were determined, but urine-LAM results did not inform treatment decisions.Results: Consecutive HIV-positive adult acute medical admissions not already receiving TB treatment (n = 427) were enrolled regardless of clinical presentation or symptoms. TB was diagnosed in 139 patients (TB prevalence 32.6%; median CD4 count 80 cells/μL). In the first 24 hours of admission, sputum (spot and/or induced) samples were obtained from 37.0% of patients and urine samples from 99.5% of patients (P < 0.001). The diagnostic yields from these specimens were 19.4% (n = 27/139) for sputum-microscopy, 26.6% (n = 37/139) for sputum-Xpert, 38.1% (n = 53/139) for urine-LAM and 52.5% (n = 73/139) for sputum-Xpert/urine-LAM combined (P < 0.01). Corresponding yields among patients with CD4 counts <100 cells/μL were 18.9%, 24.3%, 55.4% and 63.5%, respectively (P < 0.01). The diagnostic yield of urine-LAM was unrelated to respiratory symptoms, and LAM assay specificity (using a grade-2 cut-off) was 98.9% (274/277; 95% confidence interval [CI] 96.9-99.8). Among TB cases, positive urine-LAM status was strongly associated with mortality at 90 days (adjusted hazard ratio 4.20; 95% CI 1.50-11.75).Conclusions: Routine testing for TB in newly admitted HIV-positive adults using Determine TB-LAM to test urine provides major incremental diagnostic yield with very high specificity when used in combination with sputum testing and has important utility among those without respiratory TB symptoms and/or unable to produce sputum. The assay also rapidly identifies individuals with a poor prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Retrospective data suggest that cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in patients with late-stage human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) may reduce cryptococcal disease and deaths. Prospective data are limited. Methods. CrAg was measured using lateral flow assays (LFA) and latex agglutination (LA) tests in 645 HIV-positive, ART-naive patients with CD4 counts ≤100 cells/μL in Cape Town, South Africa. CrAg-positive patients were offered lumbar puncture (LP) and treated with antifungals. Patients were started on ART between 2 and 4 weeks and followed up for 1 year. Results. A total of 4.3% (28/645) of patients were CrAg positive in serum and plasma with LFA. These included 16 also positive by urine LFA (2.5% of total screened) and 7 by serum LA (1.1% of total). In 4 of 10 LFA-positive cases agreeing to LP, the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) CrAg LFA was positive. A positive CSF CrAg was associated with higher screening plasma/serum LFA titers. Among the 28 CrAg-positive patients, mortality was 14.3% at 10 weeks and 25% at 12 months. Only 1 CrAg-positive patient, who defaulted from care, died from cryptococcal meningitis (CM). Mortality in CrAg-negative patients was 11.5% at 1 year. Only 2 possible CM cases were identified in CrAg-negative patients. Conclusions. CrAg screening of individuals initiating ART and preemptive fluconazole treatment of CrAg-positive patients resulted in markedly fewer cases of CM compared with historic unscreened cohorts. Studies are needed to refine management of CrAg-positive patients who have high mortality that does not appear to be wholly attributable to cryptococcal disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Morbidity and mortality remain high among hospitalized patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa despite widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy. Severe anemia is likely one important driver, and some evidence suggests that blood transfusions may accelerate HIV progression and paradoxically increase short-term mortality. We investigated the relationship between anemia, blood transfusions, and mortality in a South African district hospital. Methods. Unselected consecutive HIV-infected adults requiring acute medical admission to a Cape Town township district hospital were recruited. Admission hemoglobin concentrations were used to classify anemia severity according to World Health Organization/AIDS Clinical Trials Group criteria. Vital status was determined at 90 days, and Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors of mortality. Results. Of 585 HIV-infected patients enrolled, 578 (98.8%) were included in the analysis. Anemia was detected in 84.8% of patients and was severe (hemoglobin, 6.5-7.9 g/dL) or life-threatening (hemoglobin, <6.5 g/dL) in 17.3% and 13.3%, respectively. Within 90 days of the date of admission, 13.5% (n = 78) patients received at least 1 blood transfusion with red cell concentrate and 77 (13.3%) patients died. In univariable analysis, baseline hemoglobin and receipt of blood transfusion were associated with increased mortality risk. However, in multivariable analysis, neither hemoglobin nor receipt of a blood transfusion were independently associated with greater mortality risk. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome-defining illnesses other than tuberculosis and impaired renal function independently predicted mortality. Conclusions. Newly admitted HIV-infected adults had a high prevalence of severe or life-threatening anemia and blood transfusions were frequently required. However, after adjustment for confounders, blood transfusions did not confer an increased mortality risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces individual tuberculosis (TB) risk by two‐thirds, the population‐level impact remains uncertain. Cape Town reports high TB notification rates associated with endemic HIV. We examined population trends in TB notification rates during a 10‐year period of expanding ART. Methods: Annual Cape Town TB notifications were used as numerators and mid‐year Cape Town populations as denominators. HIV‐stratified population was calculated using overall HIV prevalence estimates from the Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS and Demographic model. ART provision numbers from Western Cape government reports were used to calculate overall ART coverage. We calculated rates per 100,000 population over time, overall and stratified by HIV status. Rates per 100,000 total population were also calculated by ART use at treatment initiation. Absolute numbers of notifications were compared by age and sub‐district. Changes over time were described related to ART provision in the city as a whole (ART coverage) and by sub‐district (numbers on ART). Results: From 2003 to 2013, Cape Town's population grew from 3.1 to 3.7 million inhabitants, and estimated HIV prevalence increased from 3.6 to 5.2%. ART coverage increased from 0 to 63% in 2013. TB notification rates declined by 16% (95% confidence interval (CI), 14–17%) from a 2008 peak (851/100,000) to a 2013 nadir (713/100,000). Decreases were higher among the HIV‐positive (21% (95% CI, 19–23%)) than the HIV‐negative (9% (95% CI, 7–11%)) population. The number of HIV‐positive TB notifications decreased mainly among 0‐ to 4‐ and 20‐ to 34‐year‐olds. Total population rates on ART at TB treatment initiation increased over time but levelled off in 2013. Overall median CD4 counts increased from 146 cells/µl (interquartile range (IQR), 66, 264) to 178 cells/µl (IQR 75, 330; p <0.001). Sub‐district antenatal HIV seroprevalence differed (10–33%) as did numbers on ART (9–29 thousand). Across sub‐districts, infant HIV‐positive TB decreased consistently whereas adult decreases varied. Conclusions: HIV‐positive TB notification rates declined during a period of rapid scale‐up of ART. Nevertheless, both HIV‐positive and HIV‐negative TB notification rates remained very high. Decreases among HIV positives were likely blunted by TB remaining a major entry to the ART programme and occurring after delayed ART initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Routine viral load (VL) monitoring is utilized to assess antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and virologic failure, and it is currently scaled‐up in many resource‐constrained settings. The first routine VL is recommended as late as six months after ART initiation for early detection of sub-optimal adherence. We aimed to assess the optimal timing of first VL measurement after initiation of ART. Methods: This was a retrospective, cohort analysis of routine monitoring data of adults enrolled at three primary care clinics in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, between January 2002 and March 2009. Primary outcomes were virologic failure and switch to second‐line ART comparing patients in whom first VL done was at three months (VL3M) and six months (VL6M) after ART initiation. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: In total, 6264 patients were included for the time to virologic failure and 6269 for the time to switch to second-line ART analysis. Patients in the VL3M group had a 22% risk reduction of virologic failure (aHR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64–0.95; p = 0.016) and a 27% risk reduction of switch to second-line ART (aHR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58–0.92; p = 0.008) when compared to patients in the VL6M group. For each additional month of delay of the first VL measurement (up to nine months), the risk of virologic failure increased by 9% (aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.15; p = 0.008) and switch to second-line ART by 13% (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05–1.21; p < 0.001). Conclusions: A first VL at three months rather than six months with targeted adherence interventions for patients with high VL may improve long-term virologic suppression and reduce switches to costly second-line ART. ART programmes should consider the first VL measurement at three months after ART initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Many low and middle-income countries are experiencing colliding epidemics of chronic infectious (ID) and non-communicable diseases (NCD). As a result, the prevalence of multiple morbidities (MM) is rising. Methods We conducted a study to describe the epidemiology of MM in a primary care clinic in Khayelitsha. Adults with at least one of HIV, tuberculosis (TB), diabetes (DM), and hypertension (HPT) were identified between Sept 2012-May 2013 on electronic databases. Using unique patient identifiers, drugs prescribed across all facilities in the province were linked to each patient and each drug class assigned a condition. Results These 4 diseases accounted for 45% of all prescription visits. Among 14364 chronic disease patients, HPT was the most common morbidity (65%). 22.6% of patients had MM, with an increasing prevalence with age; and a high prevalence among younger antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients (26% and 30% in 18-35 yr and 36-45 year age groups respectively). Among these younger ART patients with MM, HPT and DM prevalence was higher than in those not on ART. Conclusions We highlight the co-existence of multiple ID and NCD. This presents both challenges (increasing complexity and the impact on health services, providers and patients), and opportunities for chronic diseases screening in a population linked to care. It also necessitates re-thinking of models of health care delivery and requires policy interventions to integrate and coordinate management of co-morbid chronic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: There is uncertainty regarding the completeness of death recording by civil registration and by health centres in South Africa. This paper aims to compare death recording by the two systems, in cohorts of South African patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Methods: Completeness of death recording was estimated using a capture–recapture approach. Six ART programmes linked their patient record systems to the vital registration system using civil identity document (ID) numbers and provided data comparing the outcomes recorded in patient files and in the vital registration. Patients were excluded if they had missing/invalid IDs or had transferred to other ART programmes. Results: After exclusions, 91,548 patient records were included. Of deaths recorded in patients files after 2003, 94.0% (95% CI: 93.3–94.6%) were recorded by civil registration, with completeness being significantly higher in urban areas, older adults and females. Of deaths recorded by civil registration after 2003, only 35.0% (95% CI: 34.2–35.8%) were recorded in patient files, with this proportion dropping from 60% in 2004–2005 to 30% in 2010 and subsequent years. Recording of deaths in patient files was significantly higher in children and in locations within 50 km of the health centre. When the information from the two systems was combined, an estimated 96.2% of all deaths were recorded (93.5% in children and 96.2% in adults). Conclusions: South Africa's civil registration system has achieved a high level of completeness in the recording of mortality. However, the fraction of deaths recorded by health centres is low and information from patient records is insufficient by itself to evaluate levels and predictors of ART patient mortality. Previously documented improvements in ART mortality over time may be biased if based only on data from patient records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU—for example, using “prospective” definitions of LTFU in place of “retrospective” definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle‐income countries is a chronic disease intervention of unprecedented magnitude and is the dominant health systems challenge for high‐burden countries, many of which rank among the poorest in the world. Substantial external investment, together with the requirement for service evolution to adapt to changing needs, including the constant shift to earlier ART initiation, makes outcome monitoring and reporting particularly important. However, there is growing concern at the inability of many high‐burden countries to report on the outcomes of patients who have been in care for various durations, or even the number of patients in care at a particular point in time. In many instances, countries can only report on the number of patients ever started on ART. Despite paper register systems coming under increasing strain, the evolution from paper directly to complex electronic medical record solutions is not viable in many contexts. Implementing a bridging solution, such as a simple offline electronic version of the paper register, can be a pragmatic alternative. This paper describes and recommends a three‐tiered monitoring approach in low‐ and middle‐income countries based on the experience implementing such a system in the Western Cape province of South Africa. A three‐tier approach allows Ministries of Health to strategically implement one of the tiers in each facility offering ART services. Each tier produces the same nationally required monthly enrolment and quarterly cohort reports so that outputs from the three tiers can be aggregated into a single database at any level of the health system. The choice of tier is based on context and resources at the time of implementation. As resources and infrastructure improve, more facilities will transition to the next highest and more technologically sophisticated tier. Implementing a three‐tier monitoring system at country level for pre‐antiretroviral wellness, ART, tuberculosis and mother and child health services can be an efficient approach to ensuring system‐wide harmonization and accurate monitoring of services, including long term retention in care, during the scale‐up of electronic monitoring solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improved survival among HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has focused attention on AIDS-related cancers including Kaposi sarcoma (KS). However, the effect of KS on response to ART is not well-described in Southern Africa. We assessed the effect of KS on survival and immunologic and virologic treatment responses at 6- and 12-months after initiation of ART. Methods: We analyzed prospectively collected data from a cohort of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in South Africa. Differences in mortality between those with and without KS at ART initiation were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. Log-binomial models were used to assess differences in CD4 count response and HIV virologic suppression within a year of initiating treatment. Results: Between January 2001–January 2008, 13,847 HIV-infected adults initiated ART at the study clinics. Those with KS at ART initiation (n = 247, 2%) were similar to those without KS (n = 13600,98%) with respect to age (35 vs. 35yrs), presenting CD4 count (74 vs. 85cells/mm3) and proportion on TB treatment (37% vs. 30%). In models adjusted for sex, baseline CD4 count, age, treatment site, tuberculosis and year of ART initiation, KS patients were over three times more likely to have died at any time after ART initiation (hazard ratio[HR]: 3.62; 95% CI: 2.71–4.84) than those without KS. The increased risk was highest within the first year on ART (HR: 4.05; 95% CI: 2.95–5.55) and attenuated thereafter (HR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.08–4.89). Those with KS also gained, on average, 29 fewer CD4 cells (95% CI: 7–52cells/mm3) and were less likely to increase their CD4 count by 50 cells from baseline (RR: 1.43; 95% CI: 0.99–2.06) within the first 6-months of treatment. Conclusions: HIV-infected adults presenting with KS have increased risk of mortality even after initiation of ART with the greatest risk in the first year. Among those who survive the first year on therapy, subjects with KS demonstrated a poorer immunologic response to ART than those without KS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Innovative models of care are required to cope with the ever-increasing number of patients on antiretroviral therapy in the most affected countries. This study, in Khayelitsha, South Africa, evaluates the effectiveness of a group-based model of care run predominantly by non-clinical staff in retaining patients in care and maintaining adherence. Methods and Findings: Participation in “adherence clubs” was offered to adults who had been on ART for at least 18 months, had a current CD4 count >200 cells/ml and were virologically suppressed. Embedded in an ongoing cohort study, we compared loss to care and virologic rebound in patients receiving the intervention with patients attending routine nurse-led care from November 2007 to February 2011. We used inverse probability weighting to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of adherence club participation, adjusted for measured baseline and time-varying confounders. The principal outcome was the combination of death or loss to follow-up. The secondary outcome was virologic rebound in patients who were virologically suppressed at study entry. Of 2829 patients on ART for >18 months with a CD4 count above 200 cells/µl, 502 accepted club participation. At the end of the study, 97% of club patients remained in care compared with 85% of other patients. In adjusted analyses club participation reduced loss-to-care by 57% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21–0.91) and virologic rebound in patients who were initially suppressed by 67% (HR 0.33, 95% CI = 0.16–0.67). Discussion: Patient adherence groups were found to be an effective model for improving retention and documented virologic suppression for stable patients in long term ART care. Out-of-clinic group-based models facilitated by non-clinical staff are a promising approach to assist in the long-term management of people on ART in high burden low or middle-income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To investigate the incidence of selected opportunistic infections ( OIs) and cancers and the role of a history of tuberculosis ( TB) as a risk factor for developing these conditions in HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral treatment ( ART) in Southern Africa. Methods Five ART programmes from Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa participated. Outcomes were extrapulmonary cryptococcal disease (CM), pneumonia due to Pneumocystis jirovecii (PCP), Kaposi's sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A history of TB was defined as a TB diagnosis before or at the start of ART. We used Cox models adjusted for age, sex, CD4 cell count at ART start and treatment site, presenting results as adjusted hazard ratios ( aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results We analysed data from 175 212 patients enrolled between 2000 and 2010 and identified 702 patients with incident CM (including 205 with a TB history) and 487 with incident PCP (including 179 with a TB history). The incidence per 100 person-years over the first year of ART was 0.48 (95% CI 0.44-0.52) for CM, 0.35 (95% CI 0.32-0.38) for PCP, 0.31 (95% CI 0.29-0.35) for Kaposi's sarcoma and 0.02 (95% CI 0.01-0.03) for Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A history of TB was associated with cryptococcal disease ( aHR 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.55) and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia ( aHR 1.61, 95% CI 1.27-2.04), but not with Non-Hodgkin lymphoma ( aHR 1.09, 95% CI 0.45-2.65) or Kaposi's sarcoma ( aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.81-1.27). Conclusions Our study suggests that there may be interactions between different OIs in HIV-infected patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To determine the improvement in positive predictive value of immunological failure criteria for identifying virological failure in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when a single targeted viral load measurement is performed in children identified as having immunological failure. Methods Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Immunological failure was defined according to both WHO 2010 and United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 criteria. Confirmed virological failure was defined as HIV-RNA >5000 copies/ml on two consecutive occasions <365 days apart in a child on ART for ≥18 months. Results Among 2798 children on ART for ≥18 months [median (IQR) age 50 (21-84) months at ART initiation], the cumulative probability of confirmed virological failure by 42 months on ART was 6.3%. Using targeted viral load after meeting DHHS immunological failure criteria rather than DHHS immunological failure criteria alone increased positive predictive value from 28% to 82%. Targeted viral load improved the positive predictive value of WHO 2010 criteria for identifying confirmed virological failure from 49% to 82%. Conclusion The addition of a single viral load measurement in children identified as failing immunologically will prevent most switches to second-line treatment in virologically suppressed children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have shown that early ART initiation in TB/HIV co-infected patients lowers mortality. One way to implement earlier ART commencement could be through integration of TB and HIV services, a more efficient model of care than separate, vertical programs. We present a model of full TB/HIV integration and estimate its effect on time to initiation of ART. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively reviewed TB registers and clinical notes of 209 TB/HIV co-infected adults with a CD4 count <250 cells/µl and registered for TB treatment at one primary care clinic in a South African township between June 2008 and May 2009. Using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analysis, we compared time between initiation of TB treatment and ART for the periods before and after full, "one-stop shop" integration of TB and HIV services (in December 2009). Potential confounders were determined a priori through directed acyclic graphs. Robustness of assumptions was investigated by sensitivity analyses. The analysis included 188 patients (100 pre- and 88 post-integration), yielding 56 person-years of observation. Baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. Median time to ART initiation decreased from 147 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 85-188) before integration of services to 75 days (95% CI 52=119) post-integration. In adjusted analyses, patients attending the clinic post-integration were 1.60 times (95% CI 1.11-2.29) more likely to have started ART relative to the pre-integration period. Sensitivity analyses supported these findings. Conclusions/Significance: Full TB/HIV care integration is feasible and led to a 60% increased chance of co-infected patients starting ART, while reducing time to ART initiation by an average of 72 days. Although these estimates should be confirmed through larger studies, they suggest that scale-up of full TB/HIV service integration in high TB/HIV prevalence settings may shorten time to ART initiation, which might reduce excess mortality and morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To investigate highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation among pregnant women and the optimum model of service delivery for integrating HAART services into antenatal care. Methods We analysed clinic records to reconstruct a cohort of all HIV-infected pregnant women eligible for HAART at four antenatal clinics representing three service delivery models in Cape Town, South Africa. To assess HAART coverage, records of women determined to be eligible for HAART in pregnancy were reviewed at corresponding HIV treatment services. Results Of 13 208 pregnant women tested for HIV, 26% were HIV-infected and 15% were HAART-eligible based on a CD4 cell count of ≤ 200 cells/μl. Among eligible women, 51% initiated HAART before delivery, 27% received another prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) intervention and 22% did not receive any antiretroviral intervention before delivery. The proportions of women initiating HAART between the different service delivery models were comparable. The median gestational age at first presentation was 26 weeks, and early gestational age at first presentation was the strongest predictor of being on HAART by delivery. Of the women who did not initiate HAART in pregnancy, 24% started treatment within 2 years postpartum. Conclusions In this setting with clear PMTCT and HAART protocols, services failed to prioritize and initiate a high proportion of eligible pregnant women on HAART. The initiation of HAART in pregnancy requires strengthened antenatal and HIV services that target women with advanced stage disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]