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A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX., Introduction: The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD)., Methods: We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients., Results: A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination., Conclusion: A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies., (© 2023. International Osteoporosis Foundation and Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation.)

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures., Introduction: The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors., Methods: A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible., Results: Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed., Conclusions: These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266))., (© 2022. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

There was no significant difference between the areas under receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) and diagnostic indexes (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) for either major osteoporotic or hip fracture FRAX scores when comparing the unadjusted and trabecular bone score (TBS)-adjusted scores., Introduction: FRAX 10-year probability of fracture can be calculated with adjustment for the TBS. Studies have shown that TBS can improve FRAX assessments in some populations. This study aimed to determine if TBS-adjusted FRAX score is better than the unadjusted score for predicting major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture in Australian men., Methods: This study involved 591 men aged 40-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Incident MOF (n = 50) and hip fractures (n = 14) were ascertained using radiological reports. Median follow-up time was 9.5 years (IQR7.5-11.4). Diagnostic indexes were calculated using cut points of ≥20% for MOF and ≥3% for the hip. AUROC curves were also determined for adjusted and unadjusted scores as continuous variables., Results: Sensitivity was higher in the TBS-adjusted scores (MOF 4%, hip 78.6%) than the unadjusted scores (MOF 2%, hip 57.1%), with a decrease in specificity (MOF 98.9 vs 99.3%; hip 79.9 vs 83.9%). When considering TBS-adjusted and unadjusted FRAX as continuous scores, AUROCs were 0.738 and 0.740, respectively, for MOF and 0.849 and 0.848 for the hip., Conclusions: Prediction of fractures by MOF or hip FRAX was not substantially improved by TBS adjustment. There was no difference in AUROCs or diagnostic indexes for cut-off points of ≥20 for MOF and ≥3% for hip FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research., (© 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Aims: There is an inverse association between socioeconomic status (SES) and most causes of morbidity. Hip fractures pose a significant public health burden on society. However, the association between quintiles of area-based SES and incident hip fractures has not been examined in Australia. Using a comprehensive register of hip fractures for the entire Barwon Statistical Division (BSD), we assessed the association between area-based SES and incident hip fractures over a two-year period in residents aged ≥ 50years., Methods: Incident hip fractures were identified using a computerized keyword search of all radiological reports from all the radiological centers serving the BSD. Pathological fractures were excluded. SES was determined by cross-referencing residential addresses with Australian Bureau of Statistics census data and categorized in quintiles based upon the BSD reference range. Homogeneity of population at risk in each SES quintile was tested using chi square comparison. Hip fractures in each quintile and within each age strata for the entire BSD region were defined as rates per 1000 person-years., Results: During 2006-2007, there were 495 hip fractures (336 female). An inverse pattern of association was observed between SES and hip fracture incidence, with a peak in fracture numbers observed in the second quintile of SES, with differences between SES quintiles observed for both females (p = 0.005) and males (p = 0.007)., Conclusion: The association between incident hip fractures and quintiles of area-based SES provides evidence that those of greater social disadvantage should be a specific target population for intervention to reduce the burden of hip fracture within Australia., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

To determine the relationship between femoral neck geometry and the risk of hip fracture in post-menopausal Caucasian women, we conducted a retrospective study comparing the femoral neck dimensions of 62 hip fracture cases to those of 608 randomly selected controls. Measurements were made from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans (Lunar DPX-L), using the manufacturer's ruler function, and included: hip axis length (HAL), femoral neck axis length (FNAL), femoral neck width (FNW), femoral shaft width (FSW), medial femoral shaft cortical thickness (FSCT(med)), and lateral femoral shaft cortical thickness (FSCT(lat)). The fracture group was older (median age 78.3 years vs 73.8 years), lighter (median weight 59.9 kg vs 64.5 kg), and, after adjustment for age, taller (mean height 158.7+/-0.8 cm vs 156.7+/-0.2 cm) than the controls. Furthermore, bone mineral density was lower in this group (0.682+/-0.016 g/cm(2) vs 0.791+/-0.006 g/cm(2)). After adjustment for age, bone mineral content (BMC) or height, hip fracture patients had greater FNW (up to 6.6%) and FSW (up to 6.3%) than did the controls. Each standard deviation increase in FNW and FSW was associated with a 1.7-fold (95% CI 1.3-2.3) and a 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.8-3.2) increase in the fracture risk, respectively. BMC-adjusted FNAL was greater in the fracture group (+2.1%) than in the controls, while the age-adjusted FSCT(med) was reduced (-7.2%). There was a trend towards longer HAL (up to 2.1%) after adjustment for age or BMC, and thinner age-adjusted FSCT(lat) (-1.7%) in fracture patients that did not reach statistical significance. In multivariate analysis, the risk of hip fracture was predicted by the combination of age, FNW, FSW, BMC and FSCT(med). HAL was not analyzed because of the small number of HAL measurements among fracture cases. We conclude that post-menopausal women with hip fractures have wider femoral necks and shafts, thinner femoral cortices and longer femoral neck axis lengths than do women with no fractures. Alteration in hip geometry is associated with the risk of hip fracture.

Objective: To calculate the expected increase in the number of fractures in adults attributable to the predicted increase in the number of elderly Australians., Data Sources: All fractures in adult residents (> or = 35 years) of the Barwon Statistical Division (total population, 218,000) were identified from radiological reports from February 1994 to February 1996. The Australian Bureau of Statistics supplied predictions of Australia's population (1996 to 2051)., Main Outcome Measure: The projected annual number of fractures in Australian adults up to 2051 (based on stable rates of fracture in each age group)., Results: The number of fractures per year is projected to increase 25% from 1996 to 2006 (from 83,000 fractures to 104,000). Hip fractures are projected to increase 36% (from 15,000 to 21,000) because of a substantial rise in the number of elderly aged 85 years and over. Hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and increase fourfold by 2051., Conclusions: In contrast to Europe and North America, where numbers of hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and then stabilise, in Australia hip fractures will continue to place a growing demand on healthcare resources for many decades. These projections can be used for setting goals and evaluating the costs and benefits of interventions in Australia.

Background: Complete fracture ascertainment is critical for fracture cost estimates and planning for future health care facilities. Virtually complete ascertainment is possible for hip fractures because they nearly always require hospitalisation., Aims: To validate the use of radiological reports as a resource for ascertaining fracture cases, using hip fracture as a model., Methods: Hip fracture rates obtained from radiological reports were compared with rates obtained from hospital discharge summaries of medical records using International Classification of Diseases-9 (ICD-9) codes 820.0-820.9 and 733.1 over a three-year period., Results: Hip fracture cases numbered 589 using radiological reports and 585 using medical records. Discharge summaries failed to identify 15 cases ascertained through radiology reports whereas 11 cases ascertained through medical records were not identified from X-ray reports. The age-specific incidence rates for radiological ascertainment were within the 95% confidence limits of the rates derived from medical records., Conclusions: Among a population of patients generally admitted to hospital for treatment of their fracture, we were able to identify more cases from radiological reports than from medical records. Incidence rates for hip fracture were comparable using the two methods. Radiological reports provide a valuable resource for identifying incident fractures. This method of case ascertainment would be suitable for identifying both major and minor fractures in regions with self-contained health services where access to all radiological reports is possible.

In a population-based retrospective cohort study, Rochester women aged 35-69 years who were first diagnosed with one or more vertebral fractures in 1950-1979 were followed for the development of a subsequent hip fracture. The 336 women with no history of hip fracture at the time of their vertebral fracture experienced 52 proximal femur fractures in 4788 person-years of follow-up. The standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of observed to expected hip fractures was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.4) and was higher for intertrochanteric than cervical femoral fractures (SMR, 2.3 versus 1.3; P = 0.07). Hip fracture risk among women with symptomatic vertebral fractures was slightly less than in those with asymptomatic vertebral fractures (SMR, 1.8 versus 2.3; not significant), and younger women had no higher risk of a subsequent hip fracture than women who were > or = 60 years of age at the time of their vertebral fracture (SMR, 1.4 versus 1.8; not significant). Alternative explanations are possible, but these data are consistent with heterogeneity in the pathogenesis of different osteoporotic fractures.