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We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Galactic compact binaries with orbital periods shorter than a few hours emit detectable gravitational waves at low frequencies. Their gravitational wave signals can be detected with the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Crucially, they may be useful in the early months of the mission operation in helping to validate LISA's performance in comparison to pre-launch expectations. We present an updated list of 48 candidate LISA binaries with measured properties, for which we derive distances based on Gaia Data release 3 astrometry. Based on the known properties from electromagnetic observations, we predict the LISA detectability after 1, 3, 6, and 48 months with state-of-the-art Bayesian analysis methods. We distinguish between verification and detectable binaries as being detectable after 3 and 48 months respectively. We find 16 verification binaries and 21 detectable sources, which triples the number of known LISA binaries over the last few years. These include detached double white dwarfs, AM CVn binaries, one ultracompact X-ray binary and two hot subdwarf binaries. We find that across this sample the gravitational wave amplitude is expected to be measured to $\approx10\%$ on average, while the inclination is expected to be determined with $\approx15^\circ$ precision. For detectable binaries these average errors increase to $\approx50\%$ and to $\approx40^\circ$ respectively., submitted for publication in ApJ, 19 pages, 6 figures, 2 table

This paper presents rigorous tests of pulsar timing array methods and software, examining their consistency across a wide range of injected parameters and signal strength. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms \texttt{Enterprise} and \texttt{PTMCMCSampler} are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster when the white noise parameters remain fixed. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis software. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, injection recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the cross-correlation-based optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current and future analyses of PTA data., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

et al., The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4-years continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of ≈0.75 , which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 years. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 years of mission operations is recommended., C.P.L. Berry is supported by the CIERA Board of Visitors Professorship. E. Berti is supported by NSF Grants No. PHY-1912550 and AST-2006538, NASA ATP Grants No. 17-ATP17-0225 and 19-ATP19-0051, NSF-XSEDE Grant No. PHY-090003, and NSF Grant PHY-20043. D. Blas acknowledges support from the Fundación Jesus Serra and the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias under the Visiting Researcher Programme 2021 agreed between both institutions. T. Bogdanović acknowledges the support by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under award No. 80NSSC19K0319 and by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Award No. 1908042. V. Cardoso acknowledges financial support provided under the European Union’s H2020 ERC Consolidator Grant “Matter and strong-field gravity: New frontiers in Einstein’s theory” Grant Agreement No. MaGRaTh–646597. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101007855. We thank FCT for financial support through Projects No. UIDB/00099/2020 and through grants PTDC/MAT-APL/30043/2017 and PTDC/FIS-AST/7002/2020. H.-Y. Chen is supported by NASA through NASA Hubble Fellowship Grants No. HST-HF2-51452.001-A awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS5-26555. Z. Haiman acknowledges support by NASA Grant NNX15AB19G and NSF Grants AST-2006176 and AST-1715661. G. Nardini is partly supported by the ROMFORSK Grant Project. No. 302640 “Gravitational Wave Signals From Early Universe Phase Transitions”. P. Pani acknowledges financial support provided under the European Union’s H2020 ERC, Starting Grant Agreement No. DarkGRA–757480. He also acknowledges support under the MIUR PRIN and FARE programmes (GW-NEXT, CUP: B84I20000100001), and by the Amaldi Research Center funded by the MIUR program “Dipartimento di Eccellenza” (CUP: B81I18001170001). A. Sesana acknowledges financial support provided under the European Union’s H2020 ERC Consolidator Grant “Binary Massive Black Hole Astrophysics” (B Massive, Grant Agreement: 818691). K. Yagi acknowledges support from NSF Grant PHY-1806776, NASA Grant 80NSSC20K0523, a Sloan Foundation Research Fellowship and the Owens Family Foundation. D. J. Weir was supported by a Science and Technology Facilities Council Ernest Rutherford Fellowship, Grant no. ST/R003904/1, and by the Academy of Finland, Grants 324882 and 328958. A. Zimmerman is supported by NSF Grant No. PHY-1912578. The authors would like to acknowledge networking support by the GWverse COST Action CA16104, “Black holes, gravitational waves and fundamental physics.” The Flatiron Institute is supported by the Simons Foundation. This research has made use of data, software and web tools obtained from the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center (www.gw-openscience.org/), a service of LIGO Laboratory, the LIGO Scientific Collaboration and the Virgo Collaboration. LIGO Laboratory and Advanced LIGO are funded by the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) as well as the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom, the Max-Planck-Society (MPS), and the State of Niedersachsen/Germany for support of the construction of Advanced LIGO and construction and operation of the GEO600 detector. Additional support for Advanced LIGO was provided by the Australian Research Council. Virgo is funded, through the European Gravitational Observatory (EGO), by the French Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) and the Dutch Nikhef, with contributions by institutions from Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, Spain.

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect a large gravitational-wave foreground of Galactic white dwarf binaries. These sources are exceptional for their probable detection at electromagnetic wavelengths, some long before LISA flies. Studies in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves will yield strong constraints on system parameters not achievable through measurements of one messenger alone. In this work, we present a Bayesian inference pipeline and simulation suite in which we study potential constraints on binaries in a variety of configurations. We show how using LISA detections and parameter estimation can significantly improve constraints on system parameters when used as a prior for the electromagnetic analyses. We also provide rules of thumb for how current measurements will benefit from LISA measurements in the future., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted to MNRAS

Gravitational waves in general relativity contain two polarization degrees of freedom, commonly labeled plus and cross. Besides those two tensor modes, generic theories of gravity predict up to four additional polarization modes: two scalar and two vector. Detection of nontensorial modes in gravitational wave data would constitute a clean signature of physics beyond general relativity. Previous measurements have pointed to the unambiguous presence of tensor modes in gravitational waves, but the presence of additional generic nontensorial modes has not been directly tested. We propose a model-independent analysis capable of detecting and characterizing mixed tensor and nontensor components in transient gravitational wave signals, including those from compact binary coalescences. This infrastructure can constrain the presence of scalar or vector polarization modes on top of the tensor modes predicted by general relativity. Our analysis is morphology-independent (as it does not rely on a waveform templates), phase-coherent, and agnostic about the source sky location. We apply our analysis to data from GW190521 and simulated data and demonstrate that it is capable of placing upper limits on the strength of nontensorial modes when none are present, or characterizing their morphology in the case of a positive detection. Tests of the polarization content of a transient gravitational wave signal hinge on an extended detector network, wherein each detector observes a different linear combination of polarization modes. We therefore anticipate that our analysis will yield precise polarization constraints in the coming years, as the current ground-based detectors LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, and Virgo are joined by KAGRA and LIGO India., Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, published version

The LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers have to-date detected ten merging black hole (BH) binaries, some with masses considerably larger than had been anticipated. Stellar-mass BH binaries at the high end of the observed mass range (with "chirp mass" ${\cal M} \gtrsim 25 M_{\odot}$) should be detectable by a space-based GW observatory years before those binaries become visible to ground-based GW detectors. This white paper discusses some of the synergies that result when the same binaries are observed by instruments in space and on the ground. We consider intermediate-mass black hole binaries (with total mass $M \sim 10^2 -10^4 M_{\odot}$) as well as stellar-mass black hole binaries. We illustrate how combining space-based and ground-based data sets can break degeneracies and thereby improve our understanding of the binary's physical parameters. While early work focused on how space-based observatories can forecast precisely when some mergers will be observed on the ground, the reverse is also important: ground-based detections will allow us to "dig deeper" into archived, space-based data to confidently identify black hole inspirals whose signal-to-noise ratios were originally sub-threshold, increasing the number of binaries observed in both bands by a factor of $\sim 4 - 7$., White Paper submitted to Astro2020 (2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics)

Ultra-compact binaries (UCBs) are systems containing compact or degenerate stars with orbital periods less than one hour. Tens of millions of UCBs are predicted to exist within theGalaxy emitting gravitational waves (GWs) at mHz frequencies. Combining GW searches with electromagnetic (EM) surveys like Gaia and LSST will yield a comprehensive, multimessenger catalog of UCBs in the galaxy. Joint EM and GW observations enable measurements of masses, radii, and orbital dynamics far beyond what can be achieved by independent EM or GW studies. GW+EM surveys of UCBs in the galaxy will yield a trove of unique insights into the nature of white dwarfs, the formation of compact objects, dynamical interactions in binaries, and energetic, accretion-driven phenomena like Type Ia superonovae., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Astro2020 call for science white papers

Low-frequency gravitational-wave astronomy can perform precision tests of general relativity and probe fundamental physics in a regime previously inaccessible. A space-based detector will be a formidable tool to explore gravity's role in the cosmos, potentially telling us if and where Einstein's theory fails and providing clues about some of the greatest mysteries in physics and astronomy, such as dark matter and the origin of the Universe., Comment: White Paper submitted on March 7, 2019 to Astro2020 (2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics)

In this document, we detail the improvements made to the Fermi GBM targeted sub-threshold search for counterparts to LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave triggers. We describe the implemented changes and compare the sensitivity of the O3 search to that of the version of the search that operated during O2. Overall, we have improved both the sensitivity and speed of the targeted search. Further improvements to the search have been made for the O3b observing run, including automated upperlimits estimation and incorporating the updated localization systematic with the new version of the search., Comment: Updates and improvements for operations during LIGO/Virgo O3b. New sections on upper limits calculation, localization systematic uncertainty in the search, and a case study on the sub-threshold candidate during O3a: Fermi GBM-190816

Gravitational wave data from ground-based detectors is dominated by instrument noise. Signals will be comparatively weak, and our understanding of the noise will influence detection confidence and signal characterization. Mis-modeled noise can produce large systematic biases in both model selection and parameter estimation. Here we introduce a multi-component, variable dimension, parameterized model to describe the Gaussian-noise power spectrum for data from ground-based gravitational wave interferometers. Called BayesLine, the algorithm models the noise power spectral density using cubic splines for smoothly varying broad-band noise and Lorentzians for narrow-band line features in the spectrum. We describe the algorithm and demonstrate its performance on data from the fifth and sixth LIGO science runs. Once fully integrated into LIGO/Virgo data analysis software, BayesLine will produce accurate spectral estimation and provide a means for marginalizing inferences drawn from the data over all plausible noise spectra., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures