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SummaryBackground Data on HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early recurrence in patients whose HCC was previously cured, and subsequently treated by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), are equivocal. Aim To assess the risk of HCC early recurrence after DAAs exposure in a large prospective cohort of HCV-cirrhotic patients with previous successfully treated HCC, also looking for risk factors for cancer early recurrence. Methods We enrolled 143 consecutive patients with complete response after curative treatment of HCC, subsequently treated with DAAs and monitored by the web-based RESIST-HCV database. Clinical, biological, and virological data were collected. The primary endpoint was the probability of HCC early recurrence from DAA starting by Kaplan-Meier method. Results Eighty-six per cent of patients were in Child-Pugh class A and 76% of patients were BCLC A. Almost all patients (96%) achieved sustained virological response. Twenty-four HCC recurrences were observed, with nodular or infiltrative pattern in 83% and 17% of patients, respectively. The 6-, 12- and 18-month HCC recurrence rates were 12%, 26.6% and 29.1%, respectively. Main tumour size and history of prior HCC recurrence were independent risk factors for HCC recurrence by Cox multivariate model. Conclusions Probability of HCC early recurrence in patients who had HCC previously cured remains high, despite HCV eradication by DAAs. Risk was comparable but not higher to that reported in literature in DAA-untreated patients. Previous HCC recurrence and tumour size can be used to stratify the risk of HCC early recurrence. Further studies are needed to assess impact of DAAs on late recurrence and mortality.

Background & Aims Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model. Methods In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses. Results In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD. Conclusions In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed. Lay summary While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model.

Real-world evidence on the course of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) chronic liver disease after Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) obtained with direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) are still limited, and the effects on mortality remain unclear. We evaluated the post-treatment survival of 4307 patients in the RESIST-HCV cohort (mean age 66.3±11.6years, 56.9% males, 24.7% chronic hepatitis, 66.9% Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 8.4% Child-Pugh B cirrhosis) treated with DAAs between March 2015 and December 2016 and followed for a median of 73weeks (range 16–152). Proportional cause-specific hazard regression for competing risks was used to evaluate the survival and to assess the predictors of liver and cardiovascular death. Overall, 94.7% of patients achieved SVR while 5.3% were HCV RNA-positive at last follow-up. Sixty-three patients (1.4%) died during the observation period. SVR was associated with a decreased risk of liver mortality (hazard ratio,HR0.09, beta −2.37, p&nbsp

The clinical course of cirrhosis has been typically described by a compensated and a decompensated state based on the absence or, respectively, the presence of any of bleeding, ascites, encephalopathy or jaundice. More recently, it has been recognized that increasing portal hypertension and several major clinical events are followed by a marked worsening in prognosis, and disease states have been proposed accordingly in a multistate model. The development of multistate models implies the assessment of the probabilities of more than one possible outcome from each disease state. This requires the use of competing risks analysis which investigates the risk of several competing outcomes. In such a situation, the Kaplanâ Meier risk estimates and the Cox regression may be not appropriate. Clinical states of cirrhosis presently considered as suitable for a comprehensive multistate model include: in compensated cirrhosis, early (mild) portal hypertension with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) >5 and

Background & Aims: The effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV), following successful treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been studied extensively. However, the benefit in terms of overall survival (OS) remains to be conclusively demonstrated. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of DAAs on OS, HCC recurrence, and hepatic decompensation. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 163 consecutive patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and a first diagnosis of early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A HCC, who had achieved a complete radiologic response after curative resection or ablation and were subsequently treated with DAAs. DAA-untreated patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n = 328) served as controls. After propensity score matching, outcomes of 102 DAA-treated (DAA group) and 102 DAA-untreated patients (No DAA group) were compared. Results: In the DAA group, 7/102 patients (6.9%) died, HCC recurred in 28/102 patients (27.5%) and hepatic decompensation occurred in 6/102 patients (5.9%), after a mean follow-up of 21.4 months. OS was significantly higher in the DAA group compared to the No DAA group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.39; 95% CI 0.17–0.91; p = 0.03). HCC recurrence was not significantly different between the DAA and No DAA groups (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.44–1.13; p = 0.15). A significant reduction in the rate of hepatic decompensation was observed in the DAA group compared with the No DAA group (HR 0.32; 95% CI 0.13–0.84; p = 0.02). In the DAA group, sustained virologic response was a significant predictor of OS (HR 0.02; 95% CI 0.00–0.19; p

Background & aims: The effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV) after successful treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been studied extensively. However, the benefit in terms of overall survival (OS) remains to be conclusively demonstrated. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of DAAs on OS, HCC recurrence, and hepatic decompensation. Methods: We enrolled prospectively 163 consecutive patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and at first diagnosis of early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0/A HCC who had achieved a complete radiologic response after curative resection or ablation, subsequently treated with DAAs. DAA-untreated patients from ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n = 328) served as controls. After propensity-score matching, outcomes of 102 DAA-treated (DAA group) and 102 DAA-untreated patients (No DAA group) were compared. Results: In DAA group, 7/102 patients (6.9%) died, HCC recurred in 28/102 patients (27.5%) and hepatic decompensation occurred in 6/102 patients (5.9%), after a mean follow-up of 21.4 months. OS was significantly higher in DAA group compared with No DAA group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.39; 95% confidence Interval [CI] = 0.17–0.91, p = 0.03). HCC recurrence was not significantly different between DAA and No DAA groups (HR = 0.70; 95%CI = 0.44–1.13, p = 0.15). A significant reduction in the rate of hepatic decompensation was observed in DAA group compared with No DAA group (HR = 0.32; 95%CI = 0.13-0.84, p = 0.02). In DAA group, sustained virologic response was a significant predictor of overall survival (HR 0.02, 95%CI 0.00–0.19, p < 0.001), HCC recurrence (HR 0.25, 95%CI 0.11–0.57, p < 0.001) and hepatic decompensation (HR 0.12, 95%CI 0.02-0.38, p = 0.02). Conclusions: In patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and previous successful treatment of early HCC, DAAs significantly improved OS compared with No DAA treatment.

Background and aims: Large scale, real life data on the long term course of liver disease after HCV clearance obtained with DAAs are still scanty, and the separate effects on hepatic and non-hepatic causes of death still unclear. Method: We evaluated 4147 patients (mean age: 65.7 ± 11.5 years, 57.6% males) included in the prospective RESIST-HCV cohort who started DAAs treatment in 22 centres between March 2015 and April 2017. All patients were follow after SVR to register liver-related and unrelated outcomes. The primary endpoint was the evaluation of survival since starting DAAs. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the predictors of liver-related and unrelated death. Results: Patients were observed for a median of 50 weeks (range: 1–199), 934 (22.5%) had diagnosis of chronic hepatitis (F3 in >90%), 2851 (68.7%) had Child A cirrhosis and 362 (8.7%) had Child B cirrhosis. Overall, 3766 patients (90.8%) achieved SVR while 381 patients (9.2%) were HCV-RNA positive at the last control. Fifty-five patients (1.3%) died during the observation: 25 of them died for liver related causes and 30 for unrelated causes (16: cardiovascular disease, 6: sepsis, 8: other). The lack of SVR was associated with an increased incidence of overall mortality in comparison to patients with SVR (hazard ratio [HR]; 28.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.5–50.8; p < 0.001) and death from liver-related and unrelated causes (HR: 18.5, 95%CI: 8.2–41.3; p < 0.001 and HR: 45.5; 95%CI: 19.3–107.4; p < 0.001 respectively). By multivariate Cox regression analysis lack of SVR (HR: 14.9, 95%CI: 6.3–35.1; p < 0.001) and Child B cirrhosis (HR: 29.4, 95%CI: 3.8–223.9; p < 0.001) were independently related with liver mortality. Independent predictors of liver-unrelated mortality were no SVR (HR: 41.77, 95%CI: 17.30–100.87; p < 0.001), Child B cirrhosis (HR: 3.00, 95%CI: 1.36–6.22; p = 0.006), BMI (HR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.81–0.98, p = 0.023) and diabetes (HR: 2.38, 95%CI: 1.13–5.00, p = 0.022). Conclusion: In this real world setting using a variety of DAA regimens SVR reduced overall mortality and risk of liver-related and unrelated deaths at all stages of disease, nut mostly in Child A cirrhosis. The effect on cardiovascular deaths, which is evident also in the pre-cirrhotic stages deserves further follow up and investigation.

Background & Aims: Studies have produced conflicting results of the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus–associated cirrhosis treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Data from clinics are needed to accurately assess the occurrence rate of HCC in patients with cirrhosis in the real world. Methods: We collected data from a large prospective study of 2,249 consecutive patients (mean age = 65.4 years, 56.9% male) with hepatitis C virus–associated cirrhosis (90.5% with Child-Pugh class A and 9.5% with Child-Pugh class B) treated with DAAs from March 2015 through July 2016 at 22 academic and community liver centers in Sicily, Italy. HCC occurrence was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with HCC development. Results: A sustained virologic response (SVR) was achieved by 2,140 patients (total = 95.2%; 95.9% with Child Pugh class A and 88.3% with Child Pugh class B; P

The clinical course of cirrhosis is mostly determined by the progressive increase of portal hypertension, hyperdynamic circulation, bacterial translocation and activation of systemic inflammation. Different disease states, encompassing compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and a late decompensated state, are related to the progression of these mechanisms and may be recognised by haemodynamic or clinical characteristics. While these disease states do not follow a predictable sequence, they correspond to varying mortality risk. Acute-on-chronic liver failure may occur either in decompensated or in compensated cirrhosis and is always associated with a high short-term mortality. The increasing severity of these disease states prompted the concept of clinical states of cirrhosis. A multistate approach has been considered to describe the clinical course of the disease. Such an approach requires the assessment of the probabilities of different outcomes in each state, which compete with each other to occur first and mark the transition towards a different state. This requires the use of competing risks analysis, since the traditional Kaplan-Meier analysis should only be used in two-state settings. Accounting for competing risks also has implications for prognosis and treatment efficacy research. The aim of this review is to summarise relevant clinical states and to show examples of competing risks analysis in multistate models of cirrhosis.

Summary Background Morphological, haemodynamic and clinical stages of cirrhosis have been proposed, although no definite staging system is yet accepted for clinical practice. Aim To investigate whether clinical complications of cirrhosis may define different prognostic disease stages. Methods Analysis of the database from a prospective inception cohort of 494 patients. Decompensation was defined by ascites, bleeding, jaundice or encephalopathy. Explored potential prognostic stages: 1, compensated cirrhosis without oesophago-gastric varices; 2, compensated cirrhosis with varices; 3, bleeding without other complications; 4, first nonbleeding decompensation; 5, any second decompensating event. Patient flow across stages was assessed by a competing risks analysis. Results Major patient characteristics were: 199 females, 295 males, 404 HCV+, 377 compensated, 117 decompensated cirrhosis. The mean follow-up was 145 ± 109 months without dropouts. Major events: 380 deaths, 326 oesophago-gastric varices, 283 ascites, 158 bleeding, 146 encephalopathy, 113 jaundice, 126 hepatocellular carcinoma and 19 liver transplantation. Patients entering each prognostic stage along the disease course were: 202, stage 1; 216, stage 2; 75 stage 3; 206 stage 4; 213 stage 5. Five-year transition rate towards a different stage, for stages 1–4 was 34.5%, 42%, 65% and 78%, respectively (P