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The conserved region of influenza hemagglutinin (HA) stalk (or stem) has gained attention as a potent target for universal influenza vaccines 1-5 . Although the HA stalk region is relatively well conserved, the evolutionarily dynamic nature of influenza viruses 6 raises concerns about the possible emergence of viruses carrying stalk escape mutation(s) under sufficient immune pressure. Here we show that immune pressure on the HA stalk can lead to expansion of escape mutant viruses in study participants challenged with a 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus inoculum containing an A388V polymorphism in the HA stalk (45% wild type and 55% mutant). High level of stalk antibody titers was associated with the selection of the mutant virus both in humans and in vitro. Although the mutant virus showed slightly decreased replication in mice, it was not observed in cell culture, ferrets or human challenge participants. The A388V mutation conferred resistance to some of the potent HA stalk broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bNAbs). Co-culture of wild-type and mutant viruses in the presence of either a bNAb or human serum resulted in rapid expansion of the mutant. These data shed light on a potential obstacle for the success of HA-stalk-targeting universal influenza vaccines-viral escape from vaccine-induced stalk immunity.

In this study, we examined the relationships between anti-influenza virus serum antibody titers, clinical disease, and peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) global gene expression during presymptomatic, acute, and convalescent illness in 83 participants infected with 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus in a human influenza challenge model. Using traditional statistical and logistic regression modeling approaches, profiles of differentially expressed genes that correlated with active viral shedding, predicted length of viral shedding, and predicted illness severity were identified. These analyses further demonstrated that challenge participants fell into three peripheral blood leukocyte gene expression phenotypes that significantly correlated with different clinical outcomes and prechallenge serum titers of antibodies specific for the viral neuraminidase, hemagglutinin head, and hemagglutinin stalk. Higher prechallenge serum antibody titers were inversely correlated with leukocyte responsiveness in participants with active disease and could mask expression of peripheral blood markers of clinical disease in some participants, including viral shedding and symptom severity. Consequently, preexisting anti-influenza antibodies may modulate PBL gene expression, and this must be taken into consideration in the development and interpretation of peripheral blood diagnostic and prognostic assays of influenza infection. IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses are significant human pathogens that caused 83,000 deaths in the United States during 2017 to 2018, and there is need to understand the molecular correlates of illness and to identify prognostic markers of viral infection, symptom severity, and disease course. Preexisting antibodies against viral neuraminidase (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) proteins play a critical role in lessening disease severity. We performed global gene expression profiling of peripheral blood leukocytes collected during acute and convalescent phases from a large cohort of people infected with A/H1N1pdm virus. Using statistical and machine-learning approaches, populations of genes were identified early in infection that correlated with active viral shedding, predicted length of shedding, or disease severity. Finally, these gene expression responses were differentially affected by increased levels of preexisting influenza antibodies, which could mask detection of these markers of contagiousness and disease severity in people with active clinical disease.

Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein is currently the primary target of licensed influenza vaccines. Recently, broadly reactive antibodies that target the stalk region of the HA have become a major focus of current novel vaccine development. These antibodies have been observed in humans after natural infection with influenza A virus, but the data are limited. Using samples and data from the uniquely controlled setting of an influenza A/H1N1 virus human challenge study of healthy volunteers, we performed a secondary analysis that for the first time explores the role of anti-HA stalk antibody as a human correlate of protection. An anti-HA stalk antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was performed on samples from 65 participants challenged with a 2009 H1N1pdm virus. Pre- and postchallenge anti-HA stalk titers were then correlated with multiple outcome measures to evaluate anti-HA stalk antibody titer as a correlate of protection. Anti-HA stalk antibody titers were present before challenge and rose in response to challenge in 64% of individuals. Those individuals with higher titers at baseline were less likely to develop shedding, but not less likely to develop symptoms. Similar to the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer, the baseline anti-HA stalk antibody titer did not independently predict a decrease in the severity of influenza disease, while the antineuraminidase (neuraminidase inhibition [NAI]) titer did. As a correlate of protection, the naturally occurring anti-HA stalk antibody titer is predictive of a reduction of certain aspects of disease similar to HAI titer, but the NAI titer is the only identified correlate that is an independent predictor of a reduction of all assessed influenza clinical outcome measures. IMPORTANCE This is the first study to evaluate preexisting anti-HA stalk antibodies as a predictor of protection. We use a healthy volunteer influenza challenge trial for an examination of the role such antibodies play in protection. This study demonstrates that anti-HA stalk antibodies are naturally generated in response to an infection, but there is significant variability in response. Similar to antibodies that target the HA head, baseline anti-HA stalk antibody titer is a correlate of protection in terms of reduced shedding, but it is not a predictor of reduced clinical disease or an independent predictor of disease severity. These results, in the context of the limited data available in humans, suggest that vaccines that induce anti-HA stalk antibodies could play a role in future vaccine strategies, but alone, this target may be insufficient to induce a fully protective vaccine and overcome some of the issues identified with current vaccines.

Unlabelled: Despite long-term investment, influenza continues to be a significant worldwide problem. The cornerstone of protection remains vaccination, and approved vaccines seek to elicit a hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer of ≥1:40 as the primary correlate of protection. However, recent poor vaccine performance raises questions regarding the protection afforded and whether other correlates of protection should be targeted. A healthy volunteer challenge study was performed with a wild-type 2009 A(H1N1)pdm influenza A challenge virus at the NIH Clinical Center to evaluate two groups of participants with HAI titers of ≥1:40 and <1:40. The primary objective was to determine whether participants with HAI titers of ≥1:40 were less likely to develop mild to moderate influenza disease (MMID) after intranasal inoculation. HAI titers of ≥1:40 were protective against MMID but did not reduce the incidence of symptoms alone. Although the baseline HAI titer correlated with some reduction in disease severity measures, overall, the baseline NAI titer correlated more significantly with all disease severity metrics and had a stronger independent effect on outcome. This study demonstrates the importance of examining other immunological correlates of protection rather than solely HAI titers. This challenge study confirms the importance of NAI titer as a correlate and for the first time establishes that it can be an independent predictor of reduction of all aspects of influenza disease. This suggests that NAI titer may play a more significant role than previously thought and that neuraminidase immunity should be considered when studying susceptibility after vaccination and as a critical target in future influenza vaccine platforms., Importance: This study represents the first time the current gold standard for evaluating influenza vaccines as set by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, a "protective" hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer of ≥1:40, has been evaluated in a well-controlled healthy volunteer challenge study since the cutoff was established. We used our established wild-type influenza A healthy volunteer human challenge model to evaluate how well this antibody titer predicts a reduction in influenza virus-induced disease. We demonstrate that although higher HAI titer is predictive of some protection, there is stronger evidence to suggest that neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titer is more predictive of protection and reduced disease. This is the first time NAI titer has been clearly identified in a controlled trial of this type to be an independent predictor of a reduction in all aspects of influenza., (Copyright © 2016 Memoli et al.)