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Abstract: This paper presents a method to predict the through-thickness moisture content distribution and associated induced deformations of paper and cardboard sheets as they are subjected to relative humidity changes. The transient moisture diffusion problem is solved using a “natural” analytic approach that has previously been applied for solving transient heat conduction in multi-layer solids. The deformation behaviour of the sheet during the moisture diffusion process is predicted using a semi-analytical approach based on a Rayleigh–Ritz minimization of the total potential energy. Geometrically nonlinear effects are taken into account. Curvatures of the originally flat sheet are predicted as a function of time, as are the shapes of the sheet for steady-state condition. As multiple solutions exist, stability is studied. The developed model was used to study the deformation behaviour of one paper and two cardboard sheets. Comparisons with finite-element results demonstrate that the developed model provides accurate results. The displacements obtained for steady-state conditions are within +6%. Comparisons with previous steady-state analyses reveal important differences in the shape of one cardboard sheet. This suggests that the moisture diffusion process may influence the configuration assumed by the sheet at steady-state equilibrium. Hence, it may be necessary to take the moisture diffusion into account in the analysis to accurately predict the hygro-mechanical behaviour of paper or cardboard sheets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]