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Background and Aims: A better understanding of the relationship between cardiovascular disease risk factors and quality of life (QoL) in older age is needed to inform development of risk reduction strategies. This cross-sectional study investigated the association of QoL with health-related behaviours in older adults at risk of heart failure., Methods and Results: Older adults (N = 328) at risk of heart failure residing in Melbourne, Australia, provided data on QoL and health-related behaviours including physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol consumption. Multiple linear regression modelling was used to examine associations between health-related behaviours, QoL and its constituent domains. After adjustment for age, gender, body mass index and comorbidities, current smoking was found to have a negative association with the mental component score (MCS) of QoL (β = -0.174, p ≤ 0.01), with a positive association seen between MCS and physical activity (β = 0.130, p = 0.01). Current alcohol use had a positive association with the physical component score (PCS) (β = 0.120, p = 0.02) and saturated fat intake consumption had a negative association with the physical functioning domain of QoL (β = -0.105, p = 0.03) but was not associated with either PCS or MCS., Conclusion: Engagement of older adults at increased cardiovascular risk with behavioural risk factor modification using QoL as a driver of change may offer new opportunities to promote healthy ageing. Development of such strategies should consider that for some behaviours which are cardiovascular risk factors (alcohol intake, in particular), the positive association to QoL is complicated and needs further deliberation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2022 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Aims: Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure (HF) may provide insight into early mechanisms of HF pathogenesis. We examined risk factors associated with asymptomatic echocardiographic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities, separately and in combination, and interactions between risk factors, in the prospective community-based SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New HF (SCREEN-HF) Study cohort of 3190 participants at increased risk of cardiovascular disease., Methods and Results: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction < 50%, or >mild valve abnormality. Structural, systolic, and diastolic echocardiographic abnormalities were defined according to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study criteria, and risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities were identified using logistic regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, increased body mass index (BMI), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy, and alcohol intake were risk factors for isolated structural abnormality, whereas male gender, increased heart rate, atrial fibrillation (AF), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy, and obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with a lower risk. Moreover, male gender, smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and physical inactivity were risk factors for isolated systolic abnormality, whereas increased pulse pressure and antihypertensive therapy were associated with a lower risk. Furthermore, increased age, blood pressure, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, and warfarin therapy (associated with AF) were risk factors for isolated diastolic abnormality, whereas increased heart rate and triglyceride level (associated with BMI) were associated with a lower risk. The association of increased heart rate with lower risk of structural and diastolic abnormalities was independent of β-blocker therapy. Interactions between risk factors differed for structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities., Conclusions: The different risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities that predict symptomatic HF, and the interactions between risk factors, illustrate how these structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities represent unique trajectories that lead to symptomatic HF. Improved understanding of these trajectories may assist in the design of HF prevention strategies., (© 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to standard care versus standard care alone in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction., Methods: A Markov model was constructed based on the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure trial to assess the clinical outcomes and costs of 1000 hypothetical subjects with established heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. The model consisted of three health states: 'alive and event-free', 'alive after non-fatal hospitalisation for heart failure' and 'dead'. Costs and utilities were estimated from published sources. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained. An Australian public healthcare perspective was employed. All outcomes and costs were discounted at a rate of 5% annually., Results: Over a lifetime horizon, the addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction prevented 88 acute heart failure hospitalisations (including readmissions) and yielded an additional 416 years of life and 288 quality-adjusted life-years (discounted) at an additional cost of A$3,692,440 (discounted). This equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$12,482 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below the Australian willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Subanalyses in subjects with and without diabetes resulted in similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$13,234 and A$12,386 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively., Conclusion: Dapagliflozin is likely to be cost-effective when used as an adjunct therapy to standard care compared with standard care alone for the treatment of chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Body mass index † Deceased. (BMI) is a risk factor for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)., Design: We investigated the threshold BMI and sex-specific waist circumference associated with increased HFpEF incidence in the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a cohort study of a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease risk., Methods: Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure, ejection fraction <50% or more than mild valve abnormality. Among 3847 SCREEN-HF participants, 73 were diagnosed with HFpEF at a median of 4.5 (interquartile range: 2.9-5.5) years after enrolment., Results: HFpEF incidence rates were higher for BMI ≥27.5 kg/m 2 than for BMI < 25 kg/m 2 , and for waist circumference >100 cm (men) or > 90 cm (women) than for waist circumference ≤94 cm (men) or ≤ 83 cm (women) in Poisson regression analysis. Semiparametric proportional hazards analyses confirmed these BMI and waist circumference thresholds, and exceeding these thresholds was associated with an attributable risk of HFpEF of 44-49%., Conclusions: Both central obesity and overweight were associated with increased HFpEF incidence. Although a randomised trial of weight control would be necessary to establish a causal relationship between obesity/overweight and HFpEF incidence, these data suggest that maintenance of BMI and waist circumference below these thresholds in a community similar to that of the SCREEN-HF cohort may reduce the HFpEF incidence rate by as much as 50%.

Aims: We investigated which serum amino-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels inform heart failure (HF) risk in a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk., Methods and Results: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction (EF) < 50%, or more than mild valve abnormality. NT-proBNP levels were measured in 3842 participants on enrolment. HF was diagnosed in 162 participants at a median of 4.5 (interquartile range 2.7-5.4) years after enrolment, 73 with HF with preserved EF (HFpEF), 53 with HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), and 36 with valvular HF (VHF). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 5-year prediction of total HF were similar for NT-proBNP alone (0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.83) and a 7-parameter multivariable model (0.82, 0.77-0.86, P = 0.035). NT-proBNP cut-points of 11, 16, and 25 pmol/L for individuals aged 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years, respectively, achieved sensitivities > 76% and specificities of 47-69% for 5-year prediction of total HF in men and women in all three age groups. Sensitivities were ≥ 75% in most subgroups according to body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and the presence or absence of atrial fibrillation, pacemaker, or CVD, and for the prediction of HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF., Conclusion: Age-specific serum NT-proBNP levels inform prognosis, and hence therapeutic decisions, regarding HF risk in individuals at increased CVD risk., (© 2019 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2019 European Society of Cardiology.)

Although a high level of alcohol consumption is associated with cardiomyopathy, the benefit or risk of moderate alcohol consumption on incident heart failure (HF) is unknown. This study examined the association between alcohol consumption and risk for HF in older adults with hypertension. The study analyzed data from a cohort of 6,083 participants aged 65 to 84 years at baseline (1995 to 2001) followed for a median of 10.8 years during and after the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study. Frequency and amount of alcohol consumption were self-reported at baseline and during the clinical trial. The percentages of current drinkers, former drinkers, and never-drinkers at baseline were 4,400 (72%), 394 (6%), and 1,289 (21%), respectively. Incident HF was diagnosed in 183 men and 136 women. After adjustment for multiple confounders, alcohol consumption was not significantly associated with HF. Compared with never-drinkers, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for those who consume 1 to 7, 8 to 14, and >14 drinks/week at baseline were 0.87 (0.59 to 1.30), 0.96 (0.57 to 1.60), and 0.71 (0.25 to 2.02), respectively in women, and 0.81 (0.47 to 1.38), 0.77 (0.43 to 1.38), and 1.04 (0.59 to 1.84), respectively in men. The findings of lack of an association between alcohol consumption and risk of HF persisted in the analyses comparing the risk of HF across each level of drinking at baseline or at follow-up with never-drinkers. In the present study, there was no evidence for benefit or risk of alcohol consumption, reported at baseline or at follow-up, in relation to incident HF in both men and women., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Available data on the prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients are predominantly limited to patients diagnosed at time of hospitalization., Aims: To describe the long-term survival of incident HF patients and identify clinical characteristics associated with mortality., Methods: The Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2) randomized 6083 hypertensive subjects aged 65-84 years to angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or thiazide diuretic-based therapy and followed them for a median of 4.1 years. One hundred forty-five participants who developed HF and 5938 who remained free from HF during the trial period were followed for a median of 6.7 years during a posttrial follow-up., Results: Three quarters, 110 (76%) of HF patients had died at the end of the follow-up. The five- and ten-year survival rates following HF diagnosis during the trial period were 37% and 15%, respectively, in men, compared with 60% and 33%, respectively, in women. In non-heart failure participants, the five- and ten-year survival rates, following enrollment into the study, were 92% and 76%, respectively. Mortality following HF diagnosis increased with advancing age (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.33). In addition, male gender and preexisting diabetes were predictive of mortality, while ACE inhibitor-based therapy for the initial trial was associated with 39% decrease (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41-0.91) in mortality compared with a thiazide diuretic-based regimen., Conclusions: Long-term survival in elderly HF patients is poor, especially in men. Mortality in HF patients increased progressively with advancing age, while allocation to the ACE inhibitor-based regimen for the initial trial significantly improved HF outcome., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models., Methods and Results: EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was < 10 in 13 models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P < .001) and sample size (P = .007)., Conclusions: There is an abundance of HF risk prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Multivariable risk prediction models consisting of routinely collected measurements can facilitate early detection and slowing of disease progression through pharmacological and nonpharmacological risk factor modifications. This study aims to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for predicting 10-year risk of incident heart failure diagnosis in elderly hypertensive population., Methods: The derivation cohort included 6083 participants aged 65 to 84 years at baseline (1995-2001) followed for a median of 10.8 years during and following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). Cox proportional hazards models were used to develop the risk prediction models. Variables were selected using bootstrap resampling method, and Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion and C-statistics were used to select the parsimonious model. The final model was internally validated using a bootstrapping, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed., Results: Incident heart failure was diagnosed in 319 (5.2%) participants. The final multivariable model included age, male sex, obesity (body mass index > 30kg/m 2 ), pre-existing cardiovascular disease, average visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variation, current or past smoking. The model has C-statistics of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.705-0.748) in the derivation cohort, and 0.716 (95% CI: 0.701-0.731) after internal validation (optimism corrected). The goodness-of-fit test showed the model has good overall calibration (χ 2 = 1.78, P = 0.94)., Conclusion: The risk equation, consisting of variables readily accessible in primary and community care settings, allows reliable prediction of 10-year incident heart failure in elderly hypertensive population. Its application for the prediction of heart failure needs to be studied in the community setting to determine its utility for improving patient management and disease prevention., (© American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: In the absence of a systematic collection of data pertaining to heart failure, summarizing the data available from individual studies provides an opportunity to estimate the burden of heart failure. The present study systematically reviewed the literature to estimate the incidence and prevalence rates of heart failure in Australia., Methods: Studies reporting on prevalence or incidence of heart failure published between 1990 and 2015 were identified through a systematic search of Embase, PubMed, Ovid Medline, MeSH, Scopus and websites of the Australian Institute of Health, and Welfare and Australian Bureau of Statistics., Results: The search yielded a total of 4978 records, of which thirteen met the inclusion criteria. There were no studies reporting on the incidence of heart failure. The prevalence of heart failure in the Australian population ranged between 1.0% and 2.0%, with a significant proportion of cases being previously undiagnosed. The burden of heart failure was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians (age-standardized prevalence rate ratio of 1.7). Heart failure was prevalent in women than men, and in rural and remote regions than in the metropolitan and capital territories., Conclusion: This systematic review highlights the limited available data on the epidemiology of heart failure in Australia. Population level studies, using standardized approaches, are needed in order to precisely describe the burden of HF in the population.

Aims: Hypertension is a known risk factor for the development of heart failure (HF); however, few data are available on the magnitude of short- and long-term progression from hypertension to HF. The present study aims to determine the short- and long-term incidence of HF, and identify factors associated with onset of HF in elderly hypertensive patients., Methods and Results: The incidence of HF was measured in 6083 hypertensive patients, in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2), followed for a median of 10.8 years (4.1 years during the trial and 6.7 years during post-trial follow-up). A total of 373 cases of HF were identified over 59 581 person-years of follow-up (PY). The overall cumulative incidence of HF was 6.26 per 1000 PY; 5.33 per 1000 PY during the ANBP2 clinical trial and 7.04 per 1000 PY during the post-trial follow-up. HF was 63% higher among men [incidence rate ratios (IRR) 1.63, P < 0.01]. Older age, male sex, obesity, and history of cardiovascular disease independently predicted HF during both the short- and long-term follow-up. In addition, diabetes and smoking were associated with onset of HF in the short-term follow-up, and higher systolic blood pressure in the long-term follow-up. Median survival following diagnosis with HF was 3.94 years, and women (6.06 years) had a survival advantage over men (3.32 years)., Conclusion: Heart failure is a frequent long-term outcome in treated elderly hypertensive patients. Development of HF was predicted by patient characteristics and co-morbidities, with the effect of some predictors varying over the short- and long-term follow-up., (© 2015 The Authors European Journal of Heart Failure © 2015 European Society of Cardiology.)