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Investing in the health workforce to ensure universal access to qualified, skilled and motivated health workers is pertinent in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The policy thrust in Kenya is to improve the quality of life of the population by investing to improve health service provision and achieving universal health coverage. To realise this, the Ministry of Health undertook a Health Labour Market Analysis with to generate evidence on the relationship between supply, demand and need of the health labour force. In the context of supply, Kenya has a total of 189 932 health workers in 2020 with 66% being in the public sector and 58%, 13% and 7% being nurses, clinical officers and doctors, respectively. The density of doctors, nurses and clinical officers per 10 000 in Kenya in 2020 was 30.14, which represents about 68% of the SDG index threshold of 44.5 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population. Findings indicates that Kenya needs to align future production in terms of cadre and quantity to the population health needs. Achieving this requires a multisectoral approach to ensure apposite quantity and mix of intakes into training institutions based on the health needs and ability to employ health workers produced., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Specialist health professionals improve health outcomes. Most low-income and middle-income countries do not have the capacity to educate and retain all types of specialists across various health professions. This study sought to explore and describe the opportunities available for specialist health professions education and the pathways to becoming a specialist health professional in East and Southern Africa (ESA). Understanding the regional capacity for specialist education provides opportunities for countries to apply transnational education models to create prospects for specialist education., Methods: A document analysis on specialist training programmes for health professionals was conducted in twenty countries in ESA to establish the capacity of specialist education for health professionals. Data were collected from policy documents, grey literature and websites at the country and institution levels., Findings: We found 288 specialist health professions education programmes across ten professional categories in 157 health professions education institutions from 18 countries in the ESA are reported. Medical and Nursing specialist programmes dominate the list of available specialist programmes in the region, while Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia have the highest number of specialist programmes. Most included specialist programmes were offered at the Master's level or as postgraduate diplomas. There is a general uneven distribution of specialist health professions education programmes within the ESA region despite sharing almost similar sociogeographical context and disease patterns. Current national priorities may be antecedent to the diversity and skewed distribution of specialist health professions programmes., Conclusion: Attention must be paid to countries with limited capacity for specialist education and to professions that are severely under-represented. Establishing regional policies and platforms that nurture collaborations towards specialist health professions education may be a proximal solution for increased regional capacity for specialist education., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background and Objectives: The health workforce (HWF) is at the core of ensuring an efficient, effective and functional health system, but it faces chronic underinvestment. This paper presents a fiscal space analysis of 20 countries in East and Southern Africa to generate sustained evidence-based advocacy for significant and smarter investment in the HWF., Methods: We adapted an established empirical framework for fiscal space analysis and applied it to the HWF. Country-specific data were curated and triangulated from publicly available datasets and government reports to model the fiscal space for the HWF for each country. Based on the current knowledge, three scenarios (business as-usual, optimistic and very optimistic) were modelled and compared., Findings: A business-as-usual scenario shows that the cumulative fiscal space across the 20 countries is US$12.179 billion, which would likely increase by 28% to US$15.612 billion by 2026 but varies across countries-the highest proportional increases expected in Seychelles (117%) and Mozambique (69%) but lowest in Zambia (15%). Under optimistic assumptions, allocating an additional 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) to health even without further prioritising the proportional allocation to the wage bill could boost the cumulative fiscal space for HWF by US$4.639 billion. In a very optimistic scenario of a 1.5% increase in health expenditure as a proportion of GDP and further prioritisation of HWF within the health expenditure, the cumulative fiscal space for HWF could improve by some 105%-ranging from 24% in Zambia to 330% in Lesotho., Conclusion: Small increments in government health expenditure and increased prioritisation of HWF in funding in tandem with the 57% global average could potentially increase the fiscal space for HWF by at least 32% in 11 countries. Unless the HWF is sufficiently prioritised within the health expenditures, only increasing the overall health expenditure to even recommended levels would still portend severe underinvestment in HWF amid unabating shortages to deliver health services. Thus, HWF strategies and investment plans should include fiscal space analysis to deepen advocacy for sustainable investment in the HWF., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The Government of Lesotho has prioritised health investment that aims to improve the health and socioeconomic development of the country, including the scaling up of the health workforce (HWF) training and improving their working conditions. Following a health labour market analysis, the paper highlights the available stock of health workers in Lesotho's health labour market, 10-year projected supply versus needs and the financial implications., Methods: Multiple complementary approaches were used to collect data and analyse the HWF situation and labour market dynamics. These included a scooping assessment, desk review, triangulation of different data sources for descriptive analysis and modelling of the HWF supply, need and financial space., Findings: Lesotho had about 20 942 active health workers across 18 health occupations in 2020, mostly community health workers (69%), nurses and midwives (17.9%), while medical practitioners were 2%. Almost one out of three professional nurses and midwives (28.43%) were unemployed, and nearly 20% of associate nurse professionals, 13.26% of pharmacy technicians and 24.91% of laboratory technicians were also unemployed. There were 20.73 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population in Lesotho, and this could potentially increase to a density of 31.49 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population by 2030 compared with a need of 46.72 per 10 000 population by 2030 based on projected health service needs using disease burden and evolving population size and demographics. The existing stock of health workers covered only 47% of the needs and could improve to 55% in 2030. The financial space for the HWF employment was roughly US$40.94 million in 2020, increasing to about US$66.69 million by 2030. In comparison, the cost of employing all health workers already in the supply pipeline (in addition to the currently employed ones) was estimated to be US$61.48 million but could reach US$104.24 million by 2030. Thus, a 33% gap is apparent between the financial space and what is required to guarantee employment for all health workers in the supply pipeline., Conclusion: Lesotho's HWF stock falls short of its population health need by 53%. The unemployment of some cadres is, however, apparent. Addressing the need requires increasing the HWF budget by at least 12.3% annually up to 2030 or prioritising at least 33% of its recurrent health expenditure to the HWF., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Many countries are faced with a multitude of health workforce-related challenges partly attributed to defective health workforce planning. Earlier efforts to guide the process and harmonise approaches to national health workforce policies and planning in the Africa Region included, among others, the development of the WHO Africa Regional Office (WHO/AFRO) Policies and Plans for Human Resources for Health Guidelines for Countries in the WHO African Region in 2006. Although this guideline has led to uniformity and rigour in developing human resources for health (HRH) policies and strategies in Africa, it has become imperative to synthesise the emerging evidence and best practices in the development of health workforce strategies., Methods: A document analysis was conducted using the READ ( R eadying materials; E xtracting data; A nalysing data and D istilling) approach., Results: Fourteen HRH policy/strategic plans were included in the study. The scope of the HRH strategic plans was described in three dimensions: the term of the strategy, sectors covered by the strategy and the health workforce considered in the projections. We found that HRH strategic plan development can be conceptualised as a cyclical, sequential multimethod project, with one phase feeding the subsequent phase with data or instructions. The process is very complex, with different interest groups and sectors that need to be satisfied. The HRH strategic plan development process comprises five main phases linked with external forces and national politics., Conclusion: There is a need for accurate and comprehensive HRH data collection, astute HRH leadership, and broad base and multisectoral stakeholder consultation with technical support and guidance from experts and major external partners for effective HRH strategic plan development., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The COVID-19 pandemic had multiple adverse impacts on the health workforce that constrained their capacity to contain and combat the disease. To mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the Ghanaian health workforce, the government implemented a strategy to recruit qualified but unemployed health workers to fill staffing gaps and incentivise all public sector health workers. This paper estimated the cost of the new recruitments and incentives given to health workers and presented lessons for health workforce planning in future health emergencies towards health systems resilience. Between March and November 2020, 45 107 health workers were recruited, representing a 35% boost in the public sector health workforce capacity, and an increase in the recurrent public health sector wage bill by about GHS103 229 420 (US$17 798 176) per month, and about GHS1.24 billion (US$213.58 million) per annum. To incentivise the health workforce, the government announced a waiver of personal income taxes for all health workers in the public sector from April to December 2020 and offered a 50% additional allowance to some health workers. We estimate that the Government of Ghana spent about GH¢16.93 million (equivalent to US$2.92 million) monthly as COVID-19 response incentives, which translates into US$35 million by the end of 2020. Ghana invested considerably in health workforce recruitment and incentives to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in an almost 37% increase in the public sector wage bill. Strengthening investments in decent employment, protection and safety for the health workforce using the various resources are helpful in addressing future pandemics., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: There have been past efforts to develop benchmarks for health workforce (HWF) needs across countries which have been helpful for advocacy and planning. Still, they have neither been country-specific nor disaggregated by cadre-primarily due to data inadequacies. This paper presents an analysis to estimate a threshold of 13 cadres of HWF density to support the progressive realisation of universal health coverage (UHC)., Method: Using UHC service coverage as the outcome measure, a two-level structural equation model was specified and analysed in STATA V.16. In the first level of structural equations, health expenditure per capita-one of the cross-cutting inputs for UHC, was used to explain the critical inputs for service delivery/coverage. In the second level of the model, the critical inputs for service delivery were used to explain the UHC Service Coverage Index (UHC SCI), in which the contribution of the HWF was 'partial out'., Results: The analysis found that a unit increase in the HWF density per 10 000 population is positively associated with statistically significant improvements in the UHC SCI of countries (β=0.127, p<0.001). Similarly, a positive and statistically significant association was established between diagnostic readiness and the UHC SCI (β=0.243, p=0.015). Essential medicines readiness was positively correlated but not statistically significant (β=0.053, p=0.658). Controlling for other variables, a density of 134.23 per 10 000 population across 13 HWF categories is necessary to attain at least 70% UHC SCI., Conclusion: Consistent with current knowledge, the HWF is a significant predictor of the UHC SCI. Attaining at least 70% of the UHC SCI requires about 134.23 health workers (a mix of 13 cadres) per 10 000 population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Despite tremendous health workforce efforts which have resulted in increases in the density of physicians, nurses and midwives from 1.07 per 1000 population in 2005 to 2.65 per 1000 population in 2017, Ghana continues to face shortages of health workforce alongside inefficient distribution. The Ministry of Health and its agencies in Ghana used the Workload Indicators of Staffing Needs (WISN) approach to develop staffing norms and standards for all health facilities, which is being used as an operational planning tool for equitable health workforce distribution. Using the nationally agreed staffing norms and standards, the aim of this paper is to quantify the inequitable distribution of health workforce and the associated cost implications. It also reports on how the findings are being used to shape health workforce policy, planning and management., Methods: We conducted a health workforce gap analysis for all health facilities of the Ghana Health Service in 2018 in which we compared a nationally agreed evidence-based staffing standard with the prevailing staffing situation to identify need-based gaps and inequitable distribution. The cost of the prevailing staffing levels was also compared with the stipulated standard, and the staffing cost related to inequitable distribution was estimated., Results: It was found that the Ghana Health Service needed 105,440 health workers to meet its minimum staffing requirements as at May 2018 vis-à-vis its prevailing staff at post of 61,756 thereby leaving unfilled vacancies of 47,758 (a vacancy rate of 41%) albeit significant variations across geographical regions, levels of service and occupational groups. Of note, the crude equity index showed that in aggregate, the best-staffed region was 2.17 times better off than the worst-staffed region. The estimated cost (comprising basic salaries, market premium and other allowances paid from central government) of meeting the minimum staffing requirements was estimated to be GH¢2,358,346,472 (US$521,758,069) while the current cost of staff at post was GH¢1,424,331,400 (US$315,117,566.37), resulting in a net budgetary deficit of 57% (~ US$295.4 million) to meet the minimum requirement of staffing for primary and secondary health services. Whilst the prevailing staffing expenditure was generally below the required levels, an average of 28% (range 14-50%) across the levels of primary and secondary healthcare was spent on staff deemed to have been inequitably distributed, thus providing scope for rationalisation. We estimate that the net budgetary deficit of meeting the minimum staffing requirement could be drastically reduced by some 30% just by redistributing the inequitably distributed staff., Policy Implications: Efficiency gains could be made by redistributing the 14,142 staff deemed to be inequitably distributed, thereby narrowing the existing staffing gaps by 30% to 33,616, which could, in turn, be filled by leveraging synergistic strategy of task-sharing and/or new recruitments. The results of the analysis provided insights that have shaped and continue to influence important policy decisions in health workforce planning and management in the Ghana Health Service.