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Evidence-based interventions recommended in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control of the World Health Organization (WHO FCTC) are subject to implementation factors that might affect their actual effectiveness. The Colombian law enacting key commitments from WHO’s FCTC was signed in 2009. This study aims at evaluating the potential impact of the enactment and implementation of these WHO FCTC on four outcomes for tobacco consumption (last-year cigarette smoking prevalence, prevalence of heavy smokers, prevalence of lower-intensity smokers and monthly smoking incidence). We used data from the National Psychoactive Substances Consumption Survey (NPSCS) in 2008 (n = 29 164) and 2013 (n = 32 605), and assessed changes in these four outcomes WHO FCTC using propensity score matching (PSM). Propensity scores were obtained using key socio-demographic variables and by matching through a ‘Kernel’ estimation. Matching quality tests were performed. The common support for both survey samples was 60 793. Sub-analyses were conducted using a governance index to assess the effect of heterogeneous governance levels, proxying implementation, over the country. We found that cigarette year-prevalence and cigarette month-incidence decreased after matching around 8 and 1.2 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, respectively. Consumption might have shifted, at least partially, from heavy smoking towards lower-intensity smoking. Departments with a higher governance index showed larger reductions of tobacco use, possibly associated to a stronger WHO FCTC implementation. This study highlights the impact that the WHO FCTC had on tobacco consumption in a middle-income country and shows the importance of governance strength as a mediating mechanism for WHO FCTC impact. These results advance current knowledge on the effectiveness of WHO FCTC and shed light on the relevance of governance as a key factor in the WHO FCTC implementation.

Background Healthcare workers are at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection during care encounters compared to the general population. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) have been shown to protect COVID-19 among healthcare workers, however, Kenya has faced PPE shortages that can adequately protect all healthcare workers. We, therefore, examined the health and economic consequences of investing in PPE for healthcare workers in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model following the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines. We examined two outcomes: 1) the incremental cost per healthcare worker death averted, and 2) the incremental cost per healthcare worker COVID-19 case averted. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results Kenya would need to invest $3.12 million (95% CI: 2.65–3.59) to adequately protect healthcare workers against COVID-19. This investment would avert 416 (IQR: 330–517) and 30,041 (IQR: 7243 – 102,480) healthcare worker deaths and COVID-19 cases respectively. Additionally, such an investment would result in a healthcare system ROI of $170.64 million (IQR: 138–209) – equivalent to an 11.04 times return. Conclusion Despite other nationwide COVID-19 prevention measures such as social distancing, over 70% of healthcare workers will still be infected if the availability of PPE remains scarce. As part of the COVID-19 response strategy, the government should consider adequate investment in PPE for all healthcare workers in the country as it provides a large return on investment and it is value for money.

Background Data collection on noncommunicable disease (NCD) behavioral risk factors has traditionally been carried out through face-to-face surveys. However, its high costs and logistical difficulties can lead to lack of timely statistics for planning, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Mobile phone surveys (MPS) have the potential to fill these gaps. Objective This study explores perceptions, feasibility and strategies to increase the acceptability and response rate of health surveys administered through MPS using interactive voice response in Colombia. Method A sequential multimodal exploratory design was used. We conducted key informant interviews (KII) with stakeholders from government and academia; focus group discussions (FGDs) and user-group tests (UGTs) with young adults and elderly people living in rural and urban settings (men and women). The KII and FGDs explored perceptions of using mobile phones for NCD surveys. In the UGTs, participants were administered an IVR survey, and they provided feedback on its usability and potential improvement. Results Between February and November 2017, we conducted 7 KII, 6 FGDs (n = 54) and 4 UGTs (n = 34). Most participants consider MPS is a novel way to explore risk factors in NCDs. They also recognize challenges for their implementation including security issues, technological literacy and telecommunications coverage, especially in rural areas. It was recommended to promote the survey using mass media before its deployment and stressing its objectives, responsible institution and data privacy safeguards. The preferences in the survey administration relate to factors such as skills in the use of mobile phones, age, availability of time and educational level. The participants recommend questionnaires shorter than 10 minutes. Conclusions The possibility of obtaining data through MPS at a population level represents an opportunity to improve the availability of risk-factor data. Steps towards increasing the acceptability and overcoming technological and methodological challenges need to be taken.

BackgroundIn this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsTo account for health consequences, we estimated mortality for health care workers (HCW), and present a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model with Bayesian multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Inputs were used from the World Health Organization Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool and the Imperial College of London epidemiologic model.ResultsAn investment of $9.6 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention saves 2,299,543 lives across LMICs, costing $59 USD per HCW case averted and $4,309 USD per HCW life saved. The societal ROI is $755.3 billion USD, the equivalent of a 7,932% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response.DiscussionIn conclusion, wide-scale procurement and distribution of PPE for LMICs is an essential strategy to prevent widespread HCW morbidity and mortality. It is cost-effective and yields a large downstream return on investment.

Since 2008, when Colombia ratified the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, available evidence of the impact of tobacco consumption, its health effects, and low tax revenues resulting from low tobacco taxation and prices had grown. By 2015, Colombia’s cigarette prices stood higher than only one other country in the region, and smoking had become the second leading modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. At that time, reduced fiscal revenues resulting from a sharp drop in oil prices, accompanied by growing demand for government spending arising partly from a change in legislation that increased health benefits for the lower socioeconomic population, led to a call for tax reform. The preparation of the document was accompanied by technical training, studies, and public fora with national and international experts, civil society, and academia presenting evidences and arguing for increased taxation to lead to a reduction in tobacco consumption and, in the future, a reduction in costs to the health system. The fora and open dialogue helped align strategies of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection, and the Ministry of Finance in presenting the reform to Congress for approval with a larger academic and civil society support for this measure. In December 2016, resulting from the above-mentioned efforts, Colombia passed a major tax increase on tobacco products with the goal of decreasing smoking and improving population health. While tobacco taxes are known to be highly effective in reducing the prevalence of smoking, they are often criticized as being regressive in consumption. This analysis attempts to assess the distributional impact (across income quintiles) of the new tax on selected health and financial outcomes.

Objectives To estimate productivity losses due to absenteeism and presenteeism and their determinants in patients with depression from five Colombian cities. Methods We used data from a multicenter, mixed-methods study of adult patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder or double depression (major depressive disorder plus dysthymia) during 2010. The World Health Organization’s Health and Work Performance Questionnaire was used to assess absenteeism and presenteeism. We explored the determinants of productivity losses using a two-part model. We also used a costing model to calculate the corresponding monetary losses. Results We analyzed data from 107 patients employed in the last 4 weeks. Absenteeism was reported by 70% of patients; presenteeism was reported by all but one. Half of the patients reported a level of performance at work at least 50% below usual. Average number of hours per month lost to absenteeism and presenteeism was 43 and 51, respectively. The probability of any absenteeism was 17 percentage points lower in patients rating their mental health favorably compared with those rating it poorly (standard error [SE] 0.09; P < 0.10) and 19 percentage points higher in patients with at least one comorbidity compared with patients with none (SE 0.10; P < 0.10). All other covariates showed no significant associations on hours lost to absenteeism. Patients with favorable mental health self-ratings had 16.4 fewer hours per month of presenteeism compared with those with poor self-ratings (SE 4.52; P < 0.01). The 2015 monetary value of productivity losses amounted to US $840 million. Conclusions This study in a middle-income country confirms the high economic burden of depression. Health policies and workplace interventions ensuring adequate diagnosis and treatment of depression are recommended.

In the South American nation of Colombia, as elsewhere, patients with type 2 diabetes often avoid care that could prevent their condition from worsening. Availability of health insurance may play a role in explaining this behavior. Some patients with diabetes skip preventive measures because they have insurance and calculate that they can access curative services later in life. Insurers may limit preventive services coverage because they can't be assured of sharing in the eventual savings that emerge when a chronic condition such as diabetes is managed properly. Our analysis of a nationally representative sample of Colombians who have type 2 diabetes and who pay premiums into the country's "contributory" insurance program, found no evidence that insurance influences those individuals to avoid preventive services. The evidence is less clear for those participating in a different, fully subsidized insurance program, who-despite the availability of preventive care-are no more likely to seek preventive visits than are uninsured patients. We propose controlled experiments to identify and measure the true causal effects of insurance on prevention and, more broadly, steps to increase patients' understanding of the benefits of prevention.

In recent years, interest on researching on antenatal care issues and other health promotion and prevention interventions has increased. However, even though there is a growing interest in publishing about antenatal care use, evidence concerning which, and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman demands or not antenatal consultations on the assumption that the theoretical access to this service has not entry barriers, is still limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data gathered on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logistic regression model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage accounting for the absences to antenatal consultations once at least one visit was carried out. It was found that mothers living in the Pacific Ocean region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother's educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father's educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

Objectives: To assess the issue of hospital variations in Colombia and to contribute to the methodology on health care variations by using a model that clusters the variance between hospitals while accounting for individual-level reimbursement rates and objective health-status variables. Methods: We used data on all births (N ¼ 11,954) taking place in a contributory-regimen insurer network in Colombia during 2007. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to account for the share of unexplained variance between hospitals. In addition, an alternative variance decomposition specification was further carried out to measure the proportion of such unexplained variance due to the region effect. Results: Hospitals account for 20% of the variation in performing cesarean sections, whereas region explains only onethird of such variance. Variables accounting for preferences on the demand side as well as reimbursement rates are found to predict the probability of performing cesarean sections. Conclusions: Hospital variations explain large variances within a single-payer’s network. Because this insurer company is highly regarded in terms of performance and finance, these results might provide a lower bound for the scale of hospital variation in the Colombian health care market. Such lower bound provides guidance on the relevance of this issue for Colombia. Some factors such as demand-side preferences and physician reimbursement rates increase variations in health care even within a single-payer network. This is a source of inefficiencies, threatening the quality of health care and financial sustainability. The proposed methodology should be considered in further research on health care variations.