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The Chinese government has undertaken a significant forest restoration project, leading to a notable increase in forested areas. Despite this achievement, there is uncertainty regarding its impact on wildlife protection. To assess this, we utilized high-resolution remote sensing data to gather information on land use, bioclimatic conditions, geography, and human activity. This information was used to model and analyze changes in suitable habitats for Chinese endemic brown-eared pheasants over the past 30 years to determine the effects of the forest restoration project on wildlife habitats. Our analysis revealed that although the suitable habitat area for the brown-eared pheasant has expanded, the increased forested area did not influence their distribution. Our study also found that increasing elevation and decreasing grassland area in landscape patches promoted the distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Furthermore, the annual variation of the min temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation is an important factor affecting the suitable habitat distribution of brown-eared pheasants. Research showed that the suitable habitat of brown-eared pheasant is seriously fragmented, and the connectivity between habitats should be strengthened in the future. Based on our findings, we believe that existing forest restoration project policies cannot effectively protect wildlife due to neglecting key environmental factors at the landscape scale. Therefore, we recommend developing refined land use management policies at the landscape level to guide future ecological protection and biodiversity conservation. These findings significantly affect policy and future research on wildlife protection and forest restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has introduced a carbon neutral policy to cope with the rapid changes in the global climate. It is not clear what impact this policy will have on wildlife. Therefore, this study analyzed the suitable habitat distribution of China's unique leopard subspecies in northern Shaanxi, and simulated the potential suitable habitat distribution under different carbon emission scenarios at two time points of future carbon peak and carbon neutralization. We found that in the future SSPs 126 scenario, the suitable habitat area and the number of suitable habitat patches of North China leopard will continue to increase. With the increase of carbon emissions, it is expected that the suitable habitat of North China leopard will continue to be fragmented and shifted. When the annual average temperature is lower than 8 °C, the precipitation seasonality is 80–90 mm and the precipitation of the warmest quarter is greater than 260 mm, the probability of occurrence of North China leopard is higher. The increase in carbon emissions will lead to the reduction, migration, and fragmentation of the suitable habitat distribution of the North China leopard. Carbon neutrality policies can protect suitable wild habitats. In the future, the impact of carbon neutrality policies on future wildlife habitat protection should be carried out in depth to effectively promote the construction of wildlife protection projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chimonobambusa utilis is a unique edible bamboo species valued for its economic and nutritional benefits. However, its existence in natural habitats is at risk due to environmental shifts and human interventions. This research utilised the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict potential habitats for Ch. utilis in China, identifying key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analysing changes in suitable habitats under future climate conditions. The results show that the results of the MaxEnt model have high prediction accuracy, with an AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) value of 0.997. Precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), altitude (Alt) and isothermality (Bio03) emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the Ch. utilis distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats area for Ch. utilis is 10.55 x 104 km². Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate potential changes in suitable habitats ranging from -3.79% to 10.52%. In general, the most suitable habitat area will decrease and shrink towards higher latitude areas in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the introduction, cultivation and conservation of Ch. utilis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is a global warming 'hot‐spot' that is experiencing rapid increases in air and ocean temperatures and concomitant decreases in sea ice cover. These environmental changes are having major consequences on Arctic ecosystems. All Arctic endemic marine mammals are highly dependent on ice‐associated ecosystems for at least part of their life cycle and thus are sensitive to the changes occurring in their habitats. Understanding the biological consequences of changes in these environments is essential for ecosystem management and conservation. However, our ability to study climate change impacts on Arctic marine mammals is generally limited by the lack of sufficiently long data time series. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset on hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) movements (and serum samples) that spans more than 30 years in the Northwest Atlantic to (i) investigate foraging (distribution and habitat use) and dietary (trophic level of prey and location) habits over the last three decades and (ii) predict future locations of suitable habitat given a projected global warming scenario. We found that, despite a change in isotopic signatures that might suggest prey changes over the 30‐year period, hooded seals from the Northwest Atlantic appeared to target similar oceanographic characteristics throughout the study period. However, over decades, they have moved northward to find food. Somewhat surprisingly, foraging habits differed between seals breeding in the Gulf of St Lawrence vs those breeding at the "Front" (off Newfoundland). Seals from the Gulf favoured colder waters while Front seals favoured warmer waters. We predict that foraging habitats for hooded seals will continue to shift northwards and that Front seals are likely to have the greatest resilience. This study shows how hooded seals are responding to rapid environmental change and provides an indication of future trends for the species—information essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jujube (Ziziphus jujuba var. jujuba Mill.) and sour jujube (Z. jujuba var. spinosa (Bunge) Hu ex H.F.Chow.) are economically, nutritionally, and ecologically significant members of the Rhamnaceae family. Despite their importance, insufficient research on their genetics and habitats has impeded effective conservation and utilization. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted plastome sequencing, integrated distribution data from China, and assessed genetic diversity and suitable habitat. The plastomes of both species exhibited high conservation and low genetic diversity. A new-found 23 bp species-specific Indel in the petL-petG enabled us to develop a rapid Indel-based identification marker for species discrimination. Phylogenetic analysis and dating illuminated their genetic relationship, showing speciation occurred 6.9 million years ago, in a period of dramatic global temperature fluctuations. Substantial variations in suitable climatic conditions were observed, with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter as the primary factor influencing distributions (-3.16°C-12.73°C for jujube and -5.79°C to 4.11°C for sour jujube, suitability exceeding 0.6). Consequently, distinct conservation strategies are warranted due to differences in suitable habitats, with jujube having a broader distribution and sour jujube concentrated in Northern China. In conclusion, disparate habitats and climatic factors necessitate tailored conservation approaches. Comparing genetic diversity and developing rapid species-specific primers will further enhance the sustainable utilization of these valuable species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dendrolimus houi, a phytophagous pest, displays a broad range of adaptations and often inflicts localized damage to its hosts. Cupressus funebris, an indigenous timber species in China, is significantly impacted by D. houi. Investigating the suitable habitat distribution and changes in D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, within the context of climate warming, is essential for understanding D. houi's development and providing novel insights for managing D. houi and conserving C. funebris resources. In this study, MaxEnt was employed to simulate the distribution of D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, in their suitable habitats, evaluating the influence of environmental factors on their distribution and determining changes under a warming scenario. MaxEnt model parameters were adjusted using the Kuenm data package based on available distribution and climatic data. The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of a suitable habitat for D. houi and C. funebris, with a percentage contribution of environmental factors over 60%. There was a substantial similarity in the suitable habitat distributions of D. houi and C. funebris, with varying degrees of expansion in the total habitat area under different temporal and climatic scenarios. Intersection analysis results indicated that the 2041–2060 period, especially under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, is a critical phase for D. houi control. The habitat expansion of D. houi and C. funebris due to climate change was observed, with the distribution center of D. houi shifting northeast and that of C. funebris shifting northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change have received widespread attention as the two main factors contributing to the shrinking of plant habitats. However, the different effects of these factors on understory economic tree species are not clear. This is not conducive to the conservation and exploitation of forest resources. Here, we used species distribution modeling to predict the extent to which climate change and LULC change will affect changes in suitable habitats for A. elata under different scenarios in the future. The results showed the suitable habitat to be located in the Changbai Mountain Range in northeast China. The current area is 110,962 km2. The main variables that affect the suitable habitat are annual precipitation, LULC, slope, and mean diurnal range. The percentage contributions are 31.2%, 16.8%, 12.8%, and 12.3%, respectively. In the 2070s, the area of high-quality (moderately and highly) suitable habitat was reduced by an average of 6.05% when climate alone changed, and by an average of 10.21% when land use alone changed. When both factors changed together, there was an average decrease of 9.69%. When climate change and land use change acted together, the shrinking area of suitable habitat did not suddenly increase. These findings help to identify potentially suitable habitats for A. elata and to carry out conservation and exploitation efforts to ensure sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the population size of threatened species is problematic and has biases because of a lack of validation data. The Javan Hawk-Eagle (Nisaetus bartelsi) is an endangered raptor endemic to the remnants of natural rainforests of Java, Indonesia. We aimed to improve the accuracy of population estimates through a combination of current habitat distribution modeling and patch occupancy surveys. Higher-resolution data sources (improved from 250 m to 30 m) were used in a predicted probability model using logistic regression. Patch occupancy surveys were conducted in habitat patches identified from a predictive analysis and field validation results after 2008. We estimated population sizes only in occupied patches ≥20 km2 (size based on Javan Hawk-Eagle home-range size). The area of suitable habitats currently totaled 10,804 km2, as calculated from the results of the 2019 predicted probability model (9106 km2) and field validation (1698 km2). The predicted area in 2019 decreased by 6.5% (638 km2) from that in 2008. We detected small suitable patches because of improvements in data resolution. The patch occupancy survey validated 44 of the 74 patches (59.5%) in the current habitat distribution. We confirmed that 38 patches (10,166 km2) were occupied by Javan Hawk-Eagles, and we estimated the population to be 511 ± 3.1 (SE) pairs. This apparent population increase is attributable to improved methodologies in predicting habitat distribution and estimating population size. La estimación del tamaño poblacional de especies amenazadas es problemática y tiene sesgos debido a la falta de datos de validación. Nisaetus bartelsi es una rapaz en peligro de extinción endémica de los remanentes de los bosques lluviosos naturales de Java, Indonesia. Nuestro objetivo fue mejorar la precisión de las estimaciones poblacionales a través de una combinación de modelos de distribución de hábitat actuales y censos de ocupación de parches. Se utilizaron fuentes de datos de mayor resolución (mejoradas de 250 m a 30 m) en un modelo de probabilidad predictivo usando regresión logística. Se realizaron censos de ocupación en parches de hábitat identificados a partir de un análisis predictivo y de resultados de validación de campo después de 2008. Estimamos los tamaños poblacionales solo en parches ocupados ≥20 km2 (superficie basada en el tamaño del rango de distribución de N. bartelsi). El área de los hábitats adecuados asciende actualmente a 10,804 km2, según se calcula a partir de los resultados del modelo de probabilidad predictivo de 2019 (9106 km2) y la validación de campo (1698 km2). El área pronosticada en 2019 disminuyó un 6.5% (638 km2) con respecto a 2008. Detectamos pequeños parches adecuados debido a las mejoras en la resolución de los datos. El censo de ocupación de parches validó 44 de los 74 parches (59.5%) en la distribución actual del hábitat. Confirmamos que 38 parches (10,166 km2) estuvieron ocupados por N. bartelsi, y estimamos que la población alcanza 511 ± 3.1 (EE) parejas en total. Este aumento poblacional aparente es atribuible a una mejora en las metodologías para predecir la distribución del hábitat y estimar el tamaño poblacional. [Traducción del equipo editorial] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bactrocera minax (Enderlein, 1920) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive citrus pest. It is mainly distributed throughout Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangxi in China and is considered to be a second-class pest that is prohibited from entering that country. Climate change, new farming techniques, and increased international trade has caused the habitable area of this pest to gradually expand. Understanding the suitable habitats of B. minax under future climate scenarios may be crucial to reveal the expansion pattern of the insect and develop corresponding prevention strategies in China. Methods: Using on the current 199 distribution points and 11 environmental variables for B. minax, we chose the optimal MaxEnt model to screen the dominant factors that affect the distribution of B. minax and to predict the potential future distribution of B. minax in China under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Results: The current habitat of B. minax is located at 24.1-34.6°N and 101.1-122.9°E, which encompasses the provinces of Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan (21.64 × 104 km²). Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable habitat for B. minax may expand significantly toward the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The land coverage of highly suitable habitats may increase from 21.64 × 104 km² to 26.35 × 104 × 104 km² (2050s, SSP5-8.5) ~ 33.51 × 104 km² (2090s, SSP5-8.5). This expansion area accounts for 29% (2050s, SSP1-2.6) to 34.83% (2090s, SSP1-2.6) of the current habitat. The center of the suitable habitat was predicted to expand towards the northeast, and the scenario with a stronger radiative force corresponded to a more marked movement of the center toward higher latitudes. A jackknife test showed that the dominant variables affecting the distribution of B. minax were the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), the annual precipitation (bio12), the mean diurnal range (bio2), the temperature annual range (bio7), and the altitude (alt). Discussion: Currently, it is possible for B. minax to expand its damaging presence. Regions with appropriate climate conditions and distribution of host plants may become potential habitats for the insects, and local authorities should strengthentheir detection and prevention strategies. Climate changes in the future may promote the survival and expansion of B. minax species in China, which is represented by the significant increase of suitable habitats toward regions of high altitudes and latitudes across all directions but with some shrinkage in the east and west sides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change jeopardizes species survival, particularly for endangered species. This risk extends to the endangered Chinese endemic tree Tapiscia sinensis. The factors underpinning T. sinensis's habitat distribution are poorly understood, and its potential response to future climate scenarios remains unclear. With six shortlisted climate factors and 117 occurrence records, we modeled T. sinensis's potential distribution across China using the BIOCLIM model. We applied principal component analysis to examine the primary climate factors restricting its geographical range. The findings indicate that T. sinensis' range is principally located in China's middle subtropical climatic zone at low–mid altitudes. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and precipitation. Temperature was the most critical factor limiting T. sinensis distribution, especially the effect of temperature seasonality and isothermality. The habitat suitability model generated by BIOCLIM under current climate conditions demonstrated strong concordance between the predicted suitable areas and the present actual distribution range. These results verify that the model can reliably identify habitats conducive to T. sinensis growth and survival. However, under a hypothetical future climate scenario of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations for 2100, the model indicates a precipitous reduction and fragmentation in the areas with excellent suitability conditions. This predicted decline highlights the considerable threats posed by climate change to the long-term survival of this endangered species in China. Our habitat modeling yields critical insights that inform the development of science-based strategies and best practices to improve conservation management plans for research, protection, nursery cultivation, and sustainable planting in China. Habitat suitability knowledge could aid introduction and cultivation efforts for T. sinensis globally in places with analogous climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finger citron (Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle; Rutaceae: Citrus) is an important plant for both medicine and food. Due to the lack of suitability analysis, many problems have arisen in its planting. According to the daily observation data, Kriging interpolation was selected to spatialize precipitation and temperature data. MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of finger citron in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that temperature annual range (Bio7), annual precipitation (Bio12), human footprint (Hf), elevation (El) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of finger citron. Spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation (Bio12) showed that in the future, the precipitation in South China tends to decrease first (2050s) and then increase (2090s). The spatio-temporal analysis of temperature annual range (Bio7) showed that the 20-30 °C region was relatively stable in the Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin. Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obv ious law. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of finger citron would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively. Our results can effectively carry out to promote the recovery of its population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that ~28,313 km2 (~10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km2 occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5–20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts the world's biota, creating a critical issue for scientists, conservationists, and decision makers. Pistacia chinensis Bunge (Anacardiaceae) is an economical importantly species with strong drought resistance. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. By using 365 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographical distribution were analyzed. The results indicate that water vapor pressure, precipitation of wettest quarter, normalized difference vegetation index, and isothermality were the most influential environmental factors determining the existence of P. chinensis. In future climate change, MaxEnt predicted that inappropriate habitats of P. chinensis show a decreasing trend, whereas moderately and highly appropriate habitat areas exhibited an increasing trend. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher latitude and altitude. Our results might be applied in a variety of contexts, including discovering previously unreported P. chinensis places where it may appear in the future, or possible areas where the species could be cultivated, thus contributing to the preservation and protection of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus, hereafter KMD) is one of the top conservation priority species which is facing population decline due to poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Therefore, the long-term survival and viability of KMD populations in their natural habitat require conservation and management of suitable habitats. Hence, the present study attempted to assess the suitable habitat of KMD in three protected areas (PAs) of the Western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand using the Maxent modelling algorithm. Our results suggest that Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary (KWLS) possesses the maximum highly suitable habitats (22.55%) of KMD, followed by Govind Pashu Vihar National Park & Sanctuary (GPVNP&S; 8.33%) and Gangotri National Park (GNP; 5%). Among the environmental variables, altitude was the major contributing factor governing the distribution of KMD in KWLS. In contrast, human footprint in GPVNP&S and precipitation in GNP were the major contributing factors governing the distribution of KMD in these respective PAs. The response curve indicated that habitats with less disturbance falling in the altitudinal zone of 2000–4000 m were the most suitable habitat range for the distribution of KMD in all three PAs. However, in the case of GNP suitable habitat of KMD increases with an increase in the value of variables bio_13 (precipitation of wettest month). Further, based on our results, we believe that the predictors of suitable habitat change are site specific and cannot be generalized in the entire distribution range of the species. Therefore, the present study will be helpful in making proper habitat management actions at fine scale for the conservation of KMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) live in coastal waters that have experienced considerable anthropogenic disturbances. Specifically, along the coasts of highly urbanized regions, available habitats have decreased in both space and scale. This study used Maxent software to simulate the distribution of suitable habitats for S. chinen-sis during the dry and wet seasons in Xiamen Bay. We also aimed to identify key environmental factors influencing habitat distribution, with the goal of using our results to analyze conservation gaps and propose adjustments. We found that during the dry season, S. chinensis were mainly distributed in the Western Harbor, Jiulong River Estuary, and the mouth of Tongan Bay. During the wet season, they were distributed in the south of Western Harbor, Jiulong River Estuary, and around the Wuyu and Dadeng-Xiaodeng Islands. Nekton density, chlo-rophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, slope, and salinity are the primary factors affecting S. chinensis distribution in Xiamen Bay. To better protect the species, the existing Tongan Bay reserve should be expanded during dry seasons, and suitable habitats in the Jiulong River Estuary should be turned into a seasonal protected region. Similarly, during wet seasons, the original Western Harbor portion of the reserve should increase to include the Jiulong River Estuary, northwest of the Wuyu Islands and south of the Dadeng-Xiaodeng Islands. In addition to this dynamic seasonal management of reserve size, we also recommend developing multiple-use protected areas and establishing a joint protection mechanism between local governments. In conclusion, our model offers important guidance on improving conservation measures of S. chinensis in Xiamen Bay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux is a perennial herb and medicinal plant, which has the effects of warming Yang and dispelling cold, warming meridians and relieving pain, dispelling wind and dehumidification, supplementing fire and helping Yang. In recent years, affected by the destruction of shrubs and climate warming, the habitat of A. carmichaeli wild resources has been seriously damaged, indicating of great significance to the artificial protection and cultivation of A. carmichaeli to predict its potential suitable habitat using species distribution models (SDMs). In this paper, 14 environmental variables and 449 specimen distribution records were applied to three models, i.e. MaxEnt, GARP and Bioclim to simulate the distribution of A. carmichaeli. Our results showed that, the AUC average values of the three models were all above 0.85 and the Kappa average values were above 0.75, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of A. carmichaeli. Furthermore, simulation of MaxEnt showed that, the highly suitable habitats were concentrated in the middle east of Sichuan (17.07×104 km2), western Hubei (7.34×104 km2), southern Shaanxi (7.2×104 km2), north central Guizhou (6.74×104 km2), eastern Chongqing (5.62×104 km2) and western Hunan (5.21×104 km2) and scattered in the middle of Zhejiang (3.07×104 km2), the southwest Anhui (1.87×104 km2) and western Henan (1.43×104 km2). Jackknife test and response curves determined that the key variables affecting the distribution of A. carmichaeli were annual precipitation (751.25-1580.72 mm), precipitation of warmest quarter (422.71-717.21 mm), min temperature of coldest month (-6.85-3.12°C), temperature annual range (24.83-31.97°C), elevation (145.87-2769.22 m) and human footprint (<4.01). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Potentially suitable habitat for nest-site selection of the globally endangered Egyptian vulture in Nepal was influenced primarily by precipitation and forested areas containing cliffs. Sites near to forests and human settlements were most suited habitat for Egyptian vultures in Nepal. Land-use change could negatively impact the nesting and distribution of Egyptian vultures and threaten their persistence in some areas. Potentially suitable nesting areas generally occurred outside of protected areas Therefore, to protect the potential nesting habitat of Egyptian vultures, forested areas with large numbers of cliffs should be conserved. Habitat suitability is crucial to ensure the long-term persistence of species and can be identified based on relationships between species occurrences and underlying abiotic and biotic factors. We identified potential nesting habitat for the Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in Nepal using ecological niche modeling with climatic variables. We estimated the currently suitable nesting habitat for Egyptian vulture in Nepal at 38,204 km2. We found a high probability of suitable nesting habitat on east-facing aspects, and the probability of a suitable nesting habitat was greater in more mountainous areas, particularly in central and western regions of Nepal. Precipitation was a major factor for predicting probability of the presence of nest sites for Egyptian vultures. After identifying potentially suitable habitat, we identified environmental factors affecting landscape-level suitable nesting habitat for Egyptian vultures using generalized linear models. For Egyptian vultures, sites near forests and human settlements were most suitable for nesting, roosting, and foraging, especially in central and western Nepal. Based on potentially suitable nesting habitat and previous work on Egyptian vulture foraging and roosting habitat, we recommend protecting forests near water sources and open areas for their long-term conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Echinococcosis is a zoonotic parasitic infectious disease caused by human or domestic animals infected with Echinococcus granulosus. China is the country with the heaviest disease burden caused by Echinococcosis in the world. Therefore, it is feasible to evaluate the prevalence and distribution of echinococcosis using relevant ecological methods, combined with environmental factors and human activities. In this study, MaxEnt was used to predict the distribution range of E. granulosus in China under current and future climate scenarios and explain the impact of environmental variables on its distribution. The results showed that elevation (El), annual mean temperature (bio1), human footprint (Hf), annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8) were identified as the dominant environmental variables. In Tibet, the most suitable habitats (25.9 × 104 km2) of E. granulosus were distributed in Nyingchi and Qamdo in the east, Shigatse and Shannan in the south, and Ali in the west. In Sichuan, the most suitable habitat (18.83 × 104 km2) was located in Aba, Ganzi, and Liangshan. In Qinghai, the most suitable habitat (13.05 × 104 km2) mainly included Yushu in the southwest; Guoluo in the southeast; Haidong, Huangnan, Xining, and Hainan in the east; and Haixi in the west. In Gansu, the most suitable habitat (7.36 × 104 km2) was located in Gannan and Linxia in the southwest and Wuwei and Dingxi in the middle. In Yunnan, the most suitable habitat (1.53 × 104 km2) was distributed in Diqing in the northwest. Under future climate scenarios, the area of the most suitable habitat of E. granulosus showed an obvious expansion trend, with an increase of 44.64–70.76%. Trajectory trend of centroids showed that the most suitable habitat would move to the west in the future, and the increased areas were mainly located in the west of the current most suitable habitat. AUC values of the training data and test data were 0.936 ± 0.001 ~ 0.97 ± 0.006 and 0.912 ± 0.006 ~ 0.956 ± 0.015, respectively. The result can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention, monitoring, and early warning of echinococcosis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The giant panda is an endemic species in China and the flagship species of global wildlife conservation. Habitat studies of the giant panda corridor can reveal their survival status, habitat environment, and the threats they face, which is crucial for giant panda population recovery and habitat conservation. The results of this study show that due to the opening of the National Road 5 (G5) Niba Mountain tunnel and the completion of the Niba Mountain giant panda corridor plan, the recovery of vegetation within the Niba Mountain giant panda corridor has led to the emergence of giant panda activity in the area, which may have spread to the central part of the reserve through the corridor. The habitat selection characteristics of the giant pandas in the corridor were clarified by investigating the microhabitats of the giant panda corridor in Niba Mountain. These findings can provide a reference for scientists to formulate practical habitat conservation and management measures for giant pandas in the study area. Habitat reduction and increased fragmentation are urgent issues for the survival and recovery of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, changes in the distribution and microhabitat selection of giant panda habitats in different seasons in the same region have rarely been assessed. To further understand giant panda habitat requirements, this study analyzed the giant panda habitat selection characteristics and differences using the sample data of the giant panda occurrence sites collected during 2020–2022. The results showed that the giant panda in both seasons selected medium altitudes (2000–2400 m), southeastern slopes, slopes less than 15°, taller tree layers (8–15 m) with a larger diameter at breast height (17–25 cm) and medium density (25–55%), shorter shrub layers (<4 m) with sparse density (<30%), and taller bamboo (>2 m) with high density (>35%). The giant panda microhabitat survey in the Niba Mountain corridor clarified the characteristics of suitable habitat selection for the giant panda in the corridor. The findings of the study can provide scientific references for the development of practical habitat conservation and management measures for giant pandas in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Loess Plateau, known for its fragile ecosystems, is one of the traditional apple-producing regions in China. Although some management measures are needed to enhance sustainable agriculture in response to the rising pressure of climate change, the geographic distribution of apple trees considering multiple variables has not been considered. In this study, we used three software (the maximum entropy model, IDRISI, and ArcGIS) to simulate the potential distribution of suitable habitats and range shifts of apple trees in the near present and near future (i.e., the 2030s and the 2050s) under two climate scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-26 and SSP5-85), while taking a variety of environmental factors into account (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and terrain). After optimization, the class unsuitable habitat (CUH) changed the potential distribution pattern of apple trees on the Loess Plateau. Currently, the areas of lowly suitable habitat (LSH), moderately suitable habitat (MSH), highly suitable habitat (HSH), and CUH were 7.66 × 104, 2.80 × 104, 0.23 × 104, and 18.05 × 104 km2, respectively. Compared to the centroid estimated under the climate of 1970–2000, the suitability range of apple trees was displaced to the northwest in both the 2030s and the 2050s in SSP5-85 (i.e., 63.88~81.30 km), causing a larger displacement in distance than SSP1-26 (i.e., 40.05~50.32 km). This study demonstrates the possible changes in the spatial distribution of apple trees on the Loess Plateau in the near future and may provide a strong basis for future policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change is threatening biodiversity hotspots. Notably, alpine bumblebees, which are mostly associated with a cold ecological niche, face a higher risk of extinction. Bombus formosellus is one of the alpine bumblebees endemic to Taiwan. Aims/Methods: In this study, we use ensemble ecological niche modeling for the first time to predict spatial and temporal dynamics for habitats suitable to B. formosellus under current and future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the 2070s). Results: This model identified that the cool temperature with low variation, a specific range of precipitation and presence of coniferous forest and grasslands were the key factors affecting the distribution of B. formosellus. Using modeling to predict suitable habitats under various scenarios, we discovered that, compared with the current climatic conditions, the predicted suitable habitat area in the future decreased regardless of which climate change scenario was applied. In particular, RCP 8.5 appeared to be the most significant, with an area loss of nearly 87%, and fragmentation of the landscape with poor connection. Discussion: In summary, our analyses indicate that cool environments are suitable for B. formosellus. However, Taiwan's warming is more significant in the high mountains than in the plains. The climate change trajectory may become increasingly unfavorable to B. formosellus. Consequently, this species may face the risk of extinction in the future. Implications for insect conservation: We predict that many suitable habitats of B. formosellus will disappear or become fragmented in the future. Therefore, the remaining patches have become important refuges, and protection measures in these areas should be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the suitable habitat of plants under climate change has become a trending research topic in recent years. Juniperus tibetica Komarov (Cupressales: Cupressaceae) is a unique and vulnerable species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere. The prediction of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will be beneficial for understanding the ecosystem of the QTP. In the present study, variations in the distribution pattern of the suitable habitats (DPSH) of J. tibetica on the QTP were investigated by MaxEnt and GIS spatial analysis based on 288 distribution records and 8 environmental factors. The environmentally abnormal areas and environmental factors determining the DPSH along with climate change were analyzed, and the most suitable climate models were evaluated. The results show that the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will migrate to higher-elevation and -latitude areas in the future. Precipitation was the most important factor affecting current suitable habitats and limiting future ones, followed by temperature. By comparing the integrality of suitable habitat under different climate models, it was suggested that the HadGEM2-ES (RCP2.6) and BCC-CSM1.1 (RCP8.5) climate models were the best for predicting the DPSH of J. tibetica. This study revealed the response of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica relative to climate change at a large scale and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management and conservation of J. tibetica resources on the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding species response to climate change is essential for the conservation and utilization of species resources under rapid climate change in the future. In this study, the present and future suitable distribution range of Keteleeria davidiana, a tertiary relict gymnosperm, was predicted based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). A total of 158 occurrence records were collected after removing the duplicated records. Six low-correlation climate variables were used to predict species distributions. The three key climate factors that affect the distribution of K. davidiana were temperature seasonality (34.96%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (28.30%) and precipitation seasonality (13.58%). The most suitable zone of the temperature seasonality for K. davidiana was between 377.4 and 843.4. The highly suitable area was located in the mountainous regions of central and southeast China, which accounted for 13.39% of the whole study area. With climate warming in the future, the highly suitable distribution area of K. davidiana was estimated to decrease by 35% (SSP1-2.6 scenario) or 85% (SSP5-8.5 scenario). This study has provided a sufficient scientific basis for the future in situ and ex situ conservation of K. davidiana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acer pictum and Quercus acuta are native species recommended for restoration. To restore ecosystem functions and maintain natural ecosystems, it is suggested to deploy well-adapted and locally adapted plant material, and this notion is gaining interest. Studying how species change in response to climate change is an important part of forest restoration planning. Our method uses climate data to define the habitat range of species and to identify regions with relatively similar climates through Seed Transfer Zones (STZs). Potential habitat suitability changes of A. pictum and Q. acuta were identified under various environmental scenarios using seven climatic factors and five topographical factors. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict potential habitat suitability in current and future (1980–2100) climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). STZs are maps of areas with comparable climates and have been used to determine the climates of potentially habitable areas. This helps to minimize the maladaptation of seed movement within the same area. As a result, A. pictum growth increased along the southern coastal area and drainage was the paramount factor influencing A. pictum distribution. By checking the climate of regions with high habitability in STZs (Winter Minimum Temperature (WMT) 15–20 °F, Annual Heat: Moisture (AHM) 16–19 °C/m zone, WMT 20–25 °F, AHM 16–19 °C/m located in the zone), Q. acuta was shown to move northward with climate change centering on the southern coastal area. Additionally, Annual Precipitation (Bio12) was the most significant factor influencing Q. acuta distribution. In confirming the climate of areas with high habitability in STZs, we verified that habitat density was high in the WMT 10–15 °F, AHM 19–21 °C/m zone and WMT 20–25 °F, AHM 19–21 °C/m zone. This study establishes that the potential distributions of A. pictum and Q. acuta are affected by climate change. It supplies evidence for ecological restoration and sustainable development, and can formulate future conservation and management plans for economically valuable species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sapindus delavayi (Franch.) Radlk. (S. delavayi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species with a peel rich in saponins and a kernel high in oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats for S. delavayi in China, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution, and analyze the changes in its suitable habitats under future climate change. The results provide a scientific basis for its introduction, cultivation, and germplasm resource collection and protection. Twenty-two environmental variables and China distribution data for S. delavayi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the model's accuracy. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, then a geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to determine the level of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect for which the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.959. The annual precipitation (Bio18), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. delavayi. Under the current climate, the suitable area for S. delavayi is 1,321,308.07 km2, and under the four climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s, the suitable area is predicted to change by −3.97%~2.57%. Overall, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats will shift by different degrees to the southwest in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decades, the species distribution model (SDM) has become an essential tool for studying the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. In this study, an ensemble SDM was developed to predict the changes in species distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus across different seasons in the future (2050s and 2100s) under the climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of the ensemble SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and exhibit evident seasonal variations. Among the four seasons, the suitable habitat for this species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loss rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by the 2100s. The loss of habitat will mostly occur in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Yellow Sea, while a slight increase in habitat will occur in the northern part of the Bohai Sea. These findings provide an information forecast for this species in the future. Such forecast will be helpful in improving fishery management under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rheum nanum, a perennial herb, is a famous traditional Chinese medicinal plant that has great value in modern medicine. In order to determine the potential distribution of R. nanum in Asia, we specifically developed the potential distribution maps for three periods (current, 2050s: 2041–2060, and 2070s: 2061–2080) using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, and these were based on the current and future climate data under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). To predict the potential impacts of global warming, we measured the area of suitable habitats, habitat suitability changes, and habitat core changes. We found that bio16 (i.e., the precipitation of the wettest quarter) and bio1 (i.e., the annual mean temperature) were the most important climate factors that influenced the distribution of R. nanum. The areas of high suitable habitats (HH) and middle suitable habitats (MH) in the current period were 156,284.7 ± 0.99 km2 and 361,875.0 ± 3.61 km2, respectively. The areas of HH and MH in 2070RCP6.0 were 27,309.0 ± 0.35 km2 and 123,750 ± 2.36 km2, respectively. The ranges of 82.0–90.3° E, 43.8–46.5° N were the mostly degraded areas of the 2050s and 2070s, and RCP6.0 had a larger decrease in habitable area than that found in RCP2.6. All the HH cores shifted south, and the shift distance of HH in 2070RCP6.0 was 115.65 km. This study provides a feasible approach for efficiently utilizing low-number occurrences, and presents an important attempt at predicting the potential distribution of species based on a small sample size. This may improve our understanding of the impacts of global warming on plant distribution and could be useful for relevant agricultural decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Available habitat and hence the global population of the Endangered giant nuthatch Sitta magna, restricted to lower montane habitats of south-western China, eastern Myanmar and northern Thailand, remains poorly quantified. Thailand is the only portion of the species' range for which there is a population estimate. To obtain a more precise estimate of the Thai population and clarify the extent and characteristics of suitable habitat remaining, we conducted 335 point-count surveys at 67 points across eight localities during November 2019–February 2020. We estimated abundance and identified preferred habitat characteristics using N-mixture models, and created suitable habitat maps based on data from surveys and remote sensing. Our estimate for Thailand was 578 (95% CI 391–854) individuals based on a density of 3.7 (95% CI 2.5–5.5) individuals/km2 in 156 km2 of suitable habitat. The giant nuthatch prefers dry forest with a large amount of mature native or planted pine Pinus kesiya and with a large tree basal area and an open canopy. Our estimate of suitable habitat remaining was less than previously reported and thus the population has probably decreased, although most of this habitat is within protected areas. Habitats for the species in Thailand have a stronger level of protection than in Myanmar and China, although habitat in China remains unquantified. We recommend further research in Myanmar and China, which may hold the majority of available habitat for the giant nuthatch. For long-term management, detailed study of the association of the giant nuthatch with pine plantations is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese alfalfa (Medicago sativa) is one of the most widely planted species in China. It has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in soil and water conservation. In order to conduct scientific cultivation of Chinese alfalfa, we collected 100 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 19 climatic variables from BIOCLIM to simulate potential suitable habitat and identified the key climatic factors of Chinese alfalfa by MaxEnt and GIS software. The result shows that the MaxEnt model performed well, with an average test AUC value of 0.86 with 10-fold cross validation. The potential distribution of Chinese alfalfa is mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of north and northwest China, about 15.2% (1.46 million km2) of China's total land area, and the highly suitable area is Loess Hilly region and Xinjiang. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of this species is hydrological-related factors (PDM, PS, AP, PDQ and PCQ), which explained 58.6% of the variation, and the climatic factors limiting the southern, northern, northwestern and Tibetan plateau boundaries were PDM, AMT, AP and MTCM, respectively. The climatic thresholds of the core area of Chinese alfalfa are 0.0–14.0 mm of PDM, 23.8–108.2% of PS, 3.9–15.5 °C of AMT, 14.0–664.0 mm of AP, 1.0–47.0 mm of PDQ, 2.0–51.0 mm of PCQ. The results improve our understanding of limiting climatic factors for Chinese alfalfa and suggest a priority management measures for areas with corresponding limiting climatic factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haloxylon ammodendron, an excellent tree species for sand fixation and afforestation in the desert areas of western China, is threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities. The suitable habitat of this species is shrinking at a remarkable rate, although conservation measures have been implemented. Cistanche deserticola is an entirely parasitic herb that occurs in deserts, is a source of "desert ginseng" worldwide, and has extremely high medicinal value. Little is known about using niche models to simulate habitat suitability and evaluate important environmental variables related to parasitic species. In this study, we modeled the current suitable habitat of H. ammodendron and C. deserticola by MaxEnt based on occurrence record data of the distributions of these two species in China. We grouped H. ammodendron and C. deserticola into three groups according to the characteristics of parasitic species and modeled them with environmental factors. The results showed that bioclimate was the most important environmental parameter affecting the H. ammodendron and C. deserticola distribution. Precipitations, such as annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation in the driest quarter, were identified as the most critical parameters. The slope, diurnal temperature range, water vapor pressure, ground‐frost frequency, and solar radiation also substantially contributed to the distribution of the two species. The proportions of the most suitable areas for Groups 1, 2, and 3 were 1.2%, 1.3%, and 1.7%, respectively, in China. When combined with cultural geography, five hot spot conservation areas were determined within the distribution of H. ammodendron and C. deserticola. The comprehensive analysis indicated that by using MaxEnt to model the suitable habitat of parasitic species, we further improved the accuracy of the prediction and coupled the error of the distribution of a single species. This study provides a useful reference for the protection of H. ammodendron forests and the management of C. deserticola plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus, "plover") are beach‐nesting shorebirds that occupy their breeding range from about April to August. When plovers arrive on the breeding grounds, they select and defend territories, lay and incubate eggs, and tend to precocial broods; additionally, adults can return to a non‐breeding stage after final nest failure or after chicks have fledged or died. We hypothesized that habitat selection would differ among these phases of the breeding cycle because the needs of the birds differ among them. We monitored plovers on Fire Island and Westhampton Island, New York, during 2016–2018, recording individual locations of adult birds. We used resource selection functions to determine whether breeding stage (pre‐breeding, nesting, brooding, post‐breeding), breeding status (breeding, non‐breeding), or instantaneous behavior class (parental [incubating, brooding, and accompanying chicks], non‐parental [all other behaviors]) best explained relationships with landscape characteristics known to be important to breeding plovers. Differences in habitat selection between adults exhibiting parental behaviors and non‐parental behaviors had the greatest support in our model set. Compared with non‐parental plovers, plovers displaying parental behavior selected areas closer to bay intertidal habitats and with proportionally more dry sand in the surrounding landscape than other habitat types. Non‐parental plovers avoided areas with more dry sand and did not select for or against bay intertidal habitats. Additionally, non‐parental plovers avoided development and higher elevation areas more than parental plovers, although both exhibited avoidance of these features. The total amount of suitable habitat ranged from 100.14 ha to 151.07 ha. In each year, there was more suitable habitat for parental plovers (129.57–151.07 ha) than non‐parental plovers (100.14–108.83 ha). Due to these differences, when improving, creating, and protecting plover habitat, managers should consider habitat needs of both behavioral classes. Habitat management for nesting and brooding plovers should focus on maintaining vegetation‐free sand and access to foraging habitat, and habitat management for non‐parental plovers should focus on flat, low‐elevation foraging habitats, particularly areas further from development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural wetlands along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai Seas provide key stopover sites for migratory waterbirds. However, these wetlands are facing land loss. Understanding how natural wetland loss influences habitat is important for habitat management. We used species distribution models to report changes in area of suitable habitat and analysed the effects of natural wetland loss on habitat for 80 waterbird species of four functional categories (shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls) between 2000 and 2015 beside the Yellow and Bohai Seas. Between 2000 and 2015, 1794.8 km2 (29.27%) of coastal wetland was lost to development, most of which were tidal flats that were lost by conversion into aquaculture and salt pan habitat or land for construction. Consequently, habitat for 73 of these 80 species has decreased in area over this time period. Generally, the proportional decline in habitat suitable for duck species was less than that for shorebirds, and the proportional decline in suitable habitat was not significantly different between National Protected Species and Non‐National Protected Species. The proportional loss of tidal flats that formerly represented suitable habitat was also significantly higher for shorebirds, herons and gulls than for ducks. Because more duck species exploit aquaculture and salt pan habitat that was converted from tidal flats habitats, such conversion of tidal flats poses a greater threat to shorebirds, herons and gulls than to ducks. Preventing further reclamation of tidal flats and managing artificial wetlands are priorities for waterbird conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate fluctuations in the past and in the future are likely to result in population expansions, shifts, or the contraction of the ecological niche of many species, and potentially leading to the changes in their geographical distributions. Prediction of suitable habitats has been developed as a useful tool for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect wildlife. Here, we model the ancestral demographic history of the extant modern Chinese Muntjac Muntiacus reevesi populations using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and used the maximum entropy model to simulate the past and predict the future spatial dynamics of the species under climate oscillations. Our results indicated that the suitable habitats for the M. reevesi shifted to the Southeast and contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas they covered a broader and more northern position in the Middle Holocene. The ABC analyses revealed that the modern M. reevesi populations diverged in the Middle Holocene coinciding with the significant contraction of the highly suitable habitat areas. Furthermore, our predictions suggest that the potentially suitable environment distribution for the species will expand under all future climate scenarios. These results indicated that the M. reevesi diverged in the recent time after the glacial period and simultaneously as its habitat's expanded in the Middle Holocene. Furthermore, the past and future climate fluctuation triggered the change of Chinese muntjac spatial distribution, which has great influence on the Chinese muntjac's population demographic history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Two world's largest Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) populations are both in Guangdong province, China, but its suitable habitat there has not been evaluated. We used MaxEnt to predict the suitable habitat of humpback dolphins in Guangdong based on environmental variables and sighting data. A total of 5,545.9 km² of suitable habitat (probability =0.5) was estimated to be available for humpback dolphins, mainly occurring in waters of the Pearl River estuary (the Pearl River Estuary and west, Hengqin Island-Chuanshan Islands-Mausoleum Island, approximately 3,637.6 km²), waters near Zhanjiang (Leizhou Bay, Zhanjiang Port, and Jianjiang Estuary, approximately 1,852.7 km²), and those near Chaozhou-Shantou (waters near Guang'ao Bay and Nan'ao Island, approximately 55.6 km²). Currently, only 8.89% of the suitable habitat for Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins is under protection. Therefore, we propose extending the range of current nature reserves and establishing new nature reserves in the suitable habitat area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas and ecotourism are both conservation measures for plant resources, but for one specific plant species, the priority of them needs a reasonable planning. The suitable habitat distribution of species is the basis for planning, and the impact of climate change on habitat distribution should also be considered. Based on maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), we assessed the current and future suitable habitat distributions of seven species of genus Rhododendron in Northeast China. Combined with the distributions of existing protected areas and tourist attractions, the conservation planning is recommended. Our results showed that: (1) the suitable habitat areas of R. redowskianum and R. aureum were mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains covering only 2.05% and 3.84% of the total area of Northeast China, and showed decreasing trends in the future. (2) The suitable habitat areas for R. schlippenbachii were mainly distributed in the southeast and southwest of Liaoning Province, with a cover of 4.29% in Northeast China. For R. mucronulatum and R. micranthum, suitable habitat areas were mainly distributed in the east and west of Liaoning Province, covering 14.27% and 7.95% respectively. For R. dauricum and R. lapponicum, suitable habitat areas were mainly distributed in the Greater Khingan Range, Lesser Khingan Range, and Changbai Mountains, covering 43.76% and 22.24% respectively. Moreover, they all showed increasing trends in the future. (3) Therefore, protected area was recommended for R. redowskianum and R. aureum, while ecotourism or both protected area and ecotourism was recommended for R. schlippenbachii, R. mucronulatum, R. micranthum, R. dauricum, and R. lapponicum. This study provides planning suggestions for the conservation of Rhododendron and is a reference for the conservation of other plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

American lobster (Homarus americanus) supports one of the most valuable regional fisheries in the United States, with its abundance and distribution profoundly influenced by environmental conditions. To explain how lobster distribution has changed over time and assess the role of environmental variables on these changes, we used random forest classification and regression tree models to estimate occupancy and biomass in two seasonal periods. The occupancy models were fit to static and dynamic variables, which yielded model fits with AUC scores of 0.80 and 0.78 for spring and fall, respectively. Biomass models were fit with the same data and resulted in models explaining 61% and 63% of the spring and fall biomass variance, respectively. Significant variables scored in the formation of the regression trees were secondary productivity (i.e., zooplankton), bathymetry characteristics, and temperature. American lobster suitable habitat has changed regionally; habitat has increased in the Gulf of Maine and declined in Southern New England. There is also evidence of declining habitat along the inshore margin of the Gulf of Maine, which has been accompanied by a shift in occupancy probability offshore. Habitat suitability results from the random forest models provide insights on the structure and function of lobster habitat and context to understand recent population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montezuma quail (Cyrtonyx montezumae) is a small endemic bird in the southwestern USA and southeastern Oaxaca, Mexico. Populations of this game species are in danger, mainly due to anthropogenic activities that have fragmented their habitat; however, information on its distribution and abundance is scarce. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify a suitable habitat for the Montezuma quail in Estado de Mexico, Mexico, with remote sensing and field records modeled by geographic information systems. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify a suitable habitat for Montezuma quail in northwestern Mexico. Altitude, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and six spectral bands of Landsat 7 ETM+ 2000 were used in this study. The analysis was based on the Mahalanobis statistical distance combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and required information on the species presence within the study area. The study generated a probability map of the suitable habitat for Montezuma quail with p>0.50. The p classes considered were 0.50-0.60, 0.60-0.70, 0.70-0.80, and 0.80-1.0. As the probability increased, the size of the area defined as an adequate habitat for Montezuma quail decreased. The sizes of the areas by probability classes were 601, 228, 62, and 9 km2, respectively. The model detected 900 km² of suitable habitat for Montezuma quail in the study area, which was distributed in different locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of C. violaceum , we correctly identified the different germplasm resources and obtained excellent germplasm resources. In this study, MaxEnt was used to predict the distribution range of C. violaceum in China under current and future climate scenarios and explain the impact of environmental variables on its distribution. An SRAP (sequence-related amplified polymorphism) molecular marker was used to analyse the genetic diversity of the plant. The results showed the areas of the total, most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats of C. violaceum were 69.93 × 104 km2, 7.77 × 104 km2, 12.68 × 104 km2 and 49.49 × 104 km2, respectively. The most suitable habitat was concentrated in central and eastern Sichuan, and scattered in Chongqing and Hubei. Under SS1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios in 2050s and 2090s, the area of the most suitable habitat would decrease by 25.13%–34.88%. The centroid of the most suitable habitat would move to the west by 45.44 km (SSP1–2.6), 42.15 km (SSP2–4.5) and 37.72 km (SSP5–8.5) in the future. Annual precipitation (bio12), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), temperature annual range (bio7), elevation (El) and mean UV-B of highest month (UV-B3) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of C. violaceum. A total of 374 bands were amplified by 37 primer pairs, of which 283 bands were polymorphic, and the polymorphic percentage was 75.67%. The analysis of molecular variance showed higher percentages of genetic variation within the population. All the accessions could be distinguished by SRAP markers. The cluster analysis results showed that 63 accessions were classified into 7 groups, which were correlated with the geographical distribution of the accessions to some degree. The accessions from Langzhong and Qingbaijiang had higher diversity. These results suggest that strategic transplantation of C. violaceum from particular geographic locations could help make the species more resilient to climate change and slow the contraction of the species' distribution. • Sichuan has a special position in the resources of C. violaceum. • Climate change will lead to the reduction of the suitable habitat. • The geometric center would move to northwest. • The genetic differences in cultivated materials were higher than wild. • MaxEnt and genetic diversity combination provides deeper guidance for its protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We constructed a coupling model system of suitable habitats. • We simulated changes in nearshore vegetation biomass and habitat. • We considered the impact of natural and human activities on vegetation. • The growth of Zostera japonica was severely affected. Estuarine ecosystems are influenced by the combination of freshwater runoff and ocean tides, and the natural environment is intricate and complex, with special natural environmental conditions and biological habitat characteristics. The Yellow River is characterized by high sediment-bearing water flow, and the estuary forms a unique clear and turbid confluence. The Water and Sand Regulation (WSRS) from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir to the estuary and nearshore has had significant impacts on the environmental conditions of water, sediment and nutrients, further affecting the growth and development of vegetation in the nearshore zone. In recent years, more studies have focused on the effects of climate change and ocean tides on vegetation in the Yellow River Estuary; however, few studies have been conducted on the effects of the WSRS on klysmoeionion. In this study, we investigated the influence of water flow, sediment and nutrients on klysmoeionion based on long-term field monitoring and indoor control experiments; constructed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model to simulate the hydrodynamic characteristics, sediment transport patterns and nutrient salt distribution in the Yellow River Estuary under the combined influence of tides and riverine water and sediment; and further combined the growth competition model of typical vegetation (including the native species Zostera japonica and invasive species Spartina alterniflora) to construct a suitable habitat simulation model for typical vegetation communities in the Yellow River Estuary. Habitat and biomass changes in Z. japonica and S. alterniflora in the Yellow River Estuary were simulated under the influence of the WSRS and climate change. The results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats for Z. japonica and S. alterniflora in the Yellow River Estuary and offshore was characterized by a zonal distribution along both sides of the estuary, with an increasing trend of suitable habitat area from the estuary to both sides of the estuary; due to environmental conditions and inter- and intra-species competition, the biomass of Z. japonica and S. alterniflora was mainly distributed in the estuary and near the northern and southern shores, with the southern shore have the most distribution. In contrast, S. alterniflora was mainly distributed in the northern shore away from the estuary and in Laizhou Bay. During the WSRS period, the suitable habitat area of Z. japonica decreased by 25%, and the biomass decreased by 50%, while the suitable habitat and biomass of S. alterniflora were not significantly affected. The growth of Z. japonica was severely affected by the dual effects of global warming and the WSRS, while the biomass of S. alterniflora showed an increasing trend. The WSRS can further consider the growth pattern of vegetation to protect the resources of Z. japonica and to curb the expansion of the invasive S. alterniflora. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We analyzed the spatial distribution of a snake assemblage from the Sierras de Ventania mountain range, a rich endemism area in east-central Argentina. We used field-collected and museum specimens combined with high-resolution environmental variables to identify common distributional patterns, estimate the suitable habitat for each species, and develop a conservation proposal related to the Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) system. Distributional models diverged into two opposite patterns: suitable habitats for most species at relatively high altitude in the hills, and suitable habitats for Bothrops ammodytoides and Lygophis anomalus at relatively low altitude in the surrounding hill plain. We assessed two proposals based on different conservation algorithms: the additive benefit function (ABF), which favours hilly environments, prioritizing areas with high specific richness, and the core-area zonation (CAZ), which prioritizes the distribution of all species, further indicating areas with low richness in the surrounding plain. Regardless of the algorithm used, our results indicated that the existing PNAs are not effective in protecting the snake assemblage. Protecting at least 5% of the highest species richness areas (ABF) or 5% of the distribution core areas of all species (CAZ), the existing PNAs only represented 2.2% of these priority areas. Our findings are largely consistent with previous work, highlighting that a widespread area needs to be assigned for conservation purposes. Thus, protection of the snake assemblage should take place both inside and outside the PNAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distributional data has very important roles in management and conservation of wildlife, especially for rare species. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of the grey-shanked douc langur (Pygathrix cinerea Nadler, 1997) which is endemic to Vietnam and listed as one of the most endangered primate species in the world. We collected 158 independent localities and 16 environmental variables from different sources were used for analysis. The projection habitat suitability shows that the suitable areas are approximately from 14°N-16°N. The precipitation of driest month (bio14) had the highest percentage contribution to the model output with 27.7%. The total suitable area is 16,680.52 km². The areas of high and very high suitability account for 19%, and 2% respectively. The potential distribution area of the species is not much found in the existing protected area. Priorities for conservation and survey efforts should be given to the forested areas in Quang Ngai (Ba To district), Kon Tum (Kon Plong district), Binh Dinh (An Lao district), Gia Lai (K 'Bang district) and Quang Nam provinces. Conservation efforts should also be prioritized for areas beyond the boundary of protected areas, especially for areas that have been proposed as biodiversity corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km2) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Salamander distributions modeled with highly spatially resolved microclimate data. • Microclimate models predict less habitat loss than free-air temperature models. • Microclimate models detect areas of high suitability that are otherwise undervalued. • Models that account for forest buffering effects may enhance conservation planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) largely rely on free-air temperatures at coarse spatial resolutions to predict habitat suitability, potentially overlooking important microhabitat. Integrating microclimate data into SDMs may improve predictions of organismal responses to climate change and support targeting of conservation assets at biologically relevant scales, especially for small, dispersal-limited species vulnerable to climate-change-induced range loss. We integrated microclimate data that account for the buffering effects of forest vegetation into SDMs at a very high spatial resolution (3 m2) for three plethodontid salamander species in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (North Carolina and Tennessee). Microclimate SDMs were used to characterize potential changes to future plethodontid habitat, including habitat suitability and habitat spatial patterns. Additionally, we evaluated spatial discrepancies between predictions of habitat suitability developed with microclimate and coarse-resolution, free-air climate data. Microclimate SDMs indicated substantial losses to plethodontid ranges and highly suitable habitat by mid-century, but at much more conservative levels than coarse-resolution models. Coarse-resolution SDMs generally estimated higher mid-century losses to plethodontid habitat compared to microclimate models and consistently undervalued areas containing highly suitable microhabitat. Furthermore, microclimate SDMs revealed potential areas of future gain in highly suitable habitat within current species' ranges, which may serve as climatic microrefugia. Taken together, this study highlights the need to develop microclimate SDMs that account for vegetation and its biophysical effects on near-surface temperatures. As microclimate datasets become increasingly available across the world, their integration into correlative and mechanistic SDMs will be imperative for accurately estimating organismal responses to climate change and helping environmental managers tasked with spatially prioritizing conservation assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a traditional medicinal plant, licorice (Glycyrrhiza uralensis) with high medicinal and economic value and its demand is increasing around the world. In recent decades, the endless human excavation and climate change have reduced the natural habitat of licorice. Identifying the suitable habitat of licorice and climatic factors is crucial to formulating effective protection and management strategies. This study simulated the suitability geographic distribution of licorice in the current period by combining climate and topographic variables and predicted the possible changes in suitable habitats for licorice under different climate warming scenarios (RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5, 2.6) in the future (2041–2080) based on Maxent and ArcGIS models. The study results showed that annual average temperature, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and elevation were the primary eco-factors influencing the spatial distribution of licorice. Currently, the high, medium and low suitable areas of licorice are 108.87 × 104 km2, 70.29 × 104 km2 and 122.80 × 104 km2, respectively. These habitat regions were mainly distributed in the northwest, northeast and north of China. The research found that the habitat suitability and habitat range of licorice will increase in the future, while the potentially highly suitable habitat will decrease and the habitat fragmentation will increase with the intensification of global warming. The analysis results can provide a theoretical reference for the formulation of protection strategies and the selection of suitable planting areas for licorice. [Display omitted] • Suitable habitat of licorice in China was predicted based on the Maxent model. • The habitat areas of licorice were compared under different climatic conditions. • Bio1, Bio4, Bio12 and elevation were the key factors affecting habitat distribution. • The suitability of the licorice habitat will increase with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There is often a difference between the distribution of a species and the suitable habitat available to it. • Distribution can and should be modeled separately from suitable habitat. • Presence-proximal true-absence points can be used to model distribution as opposed to suitable habitat. • Modeling distribution and suitable habitat simultaneously enables identification and quantification of the environment suitable for restoration management. Ecological niche modeling has become common practice amongst ecologists in the last two decades. The terms in the field of ecological niche modeling, such as ecological niche model, species distribution model, and habitat suitability model are often used interchangeably, although each term can have very different meanings depending on the context of the study. Without full understanding of model inputs and careful interpretation of model outputs, there is a possibility that the dimension of the ecological niche being predicted does not align with the modeling goals of the author. This study showcases an example which indicates that it is possible to intentionally model species distribution and habitat suitability separately. Red spruce (Picea rubens) distribution was modeled by collecting true-absence points in proximity to red spruce presence points. Red spruce suitable habitat was modeled by excluding true-absence points and only using pseudo-absence points along with presence points. Models which included presence-proximal true-absences had functionally greater discriminatory ability in map projections and were more sensitive to subtle environmental changes when compared to models which only included pseudo-absence points. Therefore, models which included true-absence points more closely approximated the current distribution of red spruce whereas models which only included pseudo-absences more closely approximated the potential distribution within the realized niche or suitable habitat of red spruce. This study demonstrates that distribution and suitable habitat can and should be modeled separately and emphasizes the necessity of carefully considering modeling objectives and methodologies when interpreting modeling outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Temperature and precipitation show significant impact on the S. invicta. • The urban population residing in the southeast coast is primarily exposed to S. invicta suitable habitats. • S. invicta was predicted to expand their habitat under future climate assumptions. • The expansion of suitable habitat will tend to be northern in the future. As one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) is of great concern because of its impact on human health, human health, economic development, and native biodiversity. With the ongoing global climate change situation, there is an increased public health threat from the invasion of S. invicta. To understand the distribution of suitable habitats for S. invicta under current and future climate scenarios in mainland China, nine species distribution models were constructed and compared to which one is more suitable to predict the distribution of S. invicta. The performance of Random Forest (RF) model was the best among all the evaluated models. The results showed that current suitable habitats for S. invicta were predicted to exist in the south of Mainland China. The urban population residing on the southeast coast was primarily exposed to suitable habitats of S. invicta , with an exposed urban area of approximately 130000 km2. Annual mean temperature and precipitation of the warmest quarter were considered as important predictors among climate variables. Under future climatic scenarios, the suitable habitats originally held by S. invicta will remain stable, and suitable habitats area for expansion will increase over time. The expansion direction of suitable habitats tends to expand towards the north. Our study can provide a reference for understanding the change of S. invicta suitable habitats and exposed urban population distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Different methods to measure human impact on biodiversity produce different values. [•] Different measured threat values are non-linearly, sometimes poorly, correlated. [•] Detection of species of conservation concern varies across quantification methods. [•] Presence of suitable habitat influences threat measures and conservation ranking. [•] Threatened species are characterised by large overlap with high threat level areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction and mapping of potential suitable habitat for threatened and endangered species is critical for monitoring and restoration of their declining native populations in their natural habitat, artificial introductions, or selecting conservation sites, and conservation and management of their native habitat. We used technique called maximum entropy distribution modeling or Maxent for predicting potential suitable habitat for Hypericum sinaicum, a threatened and endangered species in Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP), South Sinai, Egypt, using small number of occurrence records. Our objectives were to: (1) predict suitable habitat distribution for threatened herb H. sinaicum using a small number of occurrence records to inform conservation planning in Saint Katherine Protectorate; and (2) identify the environmental factors associated with H. sinaicum habitat distribution. Results showed that the environmental variable with highest gain when used in isolation is bio9 (Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter). The approach presented here appears to be quite promising in predicting suitable habitat for threatened and endangered species with small sample records and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation planning, monitoring and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]