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Context: Mediterranean landscapes from Europe have undergone recent biodiversity changes. The intensification of human activities and the fragmentation of open habitats now affect many taxonomic groups, such as dung beetles, which have benefited from centuries of extensive herding. Nevertheless, dung beetles' responses to landscape composition have been rarely investigated in this context. Objectives: We explored how dung beetle communities (species occurrences, abundances and traits) were influenced by temperature and by soil and landscape characteristics and examined residual co-occurrence patterns that may reflect interspecific interactions. Methods: We used an extensive dataset on Scarabaeinae dung beetles from southern France (31 species, 117 sites) to evaluate how landscape composition and fragmentation, climate and soil characteristics jointly influence dung beetle communities across this region. We used hierarchical joint species distribution models to characterize (co)variation in the responses of species and to connect such responses to species-specific traits. Results: Temperature, soil and landscape characteristics shape dung beetle communities and species' thermal tolerance was connected to their soil preferences. Fragmentation was negatively associated with beetle abundance while forest cover was positively associated with species richness and with abundance. There was little evidence of residual associations among dung beetle species, suggesting that species interactions do not play a major role in community assembly. Conclusion: K-selected species were over-represented among the rarest species. The effects of fragmentation and forest cover indicate that a conservation plan based on connected, heterogeneous habitats with low-density grazing should be promoted to preserve ecological functions linked to these insects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial co‐occurrence patterns are determined by environmental factors, such as food availability or habitat characteristics and by biotic associations. When resources are limited, competition which implies a dominant hierarchy can shape species assemblage. Here, we study space and time co‐occurrence of steppe passerines during the breeding season in a natural steppe habitat, its modulation by environmental filtering, potential biotic interactions and random processes. We applied the joint species distribution model of hierarchical modelling of species community (HMSC) to data on species presence–absence and environmental, temporal and spatial covariates acquired from seven plots in a natural steppe in central Spain during two consecutive years. Our results reveal the patterns of bird species co‐occurrence and suggest that this assemblage might be competitively structured. The assemblage appears to be configured around one dominant species, the Eurasian skylark, which establishes principally negative associations with many of the coexistent species. Our results contribute to the understanding of how competition and dominance processes, together with ecological constraints and other biotic associations, shape bird assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traits related to reproduction and dispersal drive the assembly and dynamics of species communities and can explain and predict how species respond to habitat loss and fragmentation and to the changing climate. For fungi, such links remain poorly known.We examine how spore production rate, a key demographic trait, is influenced by the interaction between environmental conditions and species traits. We monitored the spore production of 97 wood‐inhabiting fungal species on 107 decaying logs for 2 years and analysed the data with a hierarchical community model.Our analysis demonstrates clear species differences in seasonal patterns, with spring and summer release dominating in perennial species, contrary to the commonly held view of autumn as the primary "mushroom season". Many species follow a diurnal pattern with a higher spore release rate during the night. Such patterns in release timing have important implications for dispersal, as shown by recent model simulations.The overall level of spore release was negatively correlated with spore size, providing new evidence that fungi face the classic trade‐off of investing either in the number or size of offspring.We found that different species within the functional group of wood‐inhabiting fungi display alternative strategies in spore release timing and along the trade‐off between offspring size and number. Linking our findings to previously reported correlations between spore size and other traits, we propose a new conceptualization of life history strategies in wood‐inhabiting fungi, with implications for species' ability to survive the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood‐living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics.Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait‐based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe.We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics.These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss is one of the key drivers of the ongoing decline of biodiversity. However, ecologists still argue about how fragmentation of habitat (independent of habitat loss) affects species richness. The recently proposed habitat amount hypothesis posits that species richness only depends on the total amount of habitat in a local landscape. In contrast, empirical studies report contrasting patterns: some find positive and others negative effects of fragmentation per se on species richness. To explain this apparent disparity, we devise a stochastic, spatially explicit model of competitive species communities in heterogeneous habitats. The model shows that habitat loss and fragmentation have complex effects on species diversity in competitive communities. When the total amount of habitat is large, fragmentation per se tends to increase species diversity, but if the total amount of habitat is small, the situation is reversed: fragmentation per se decreases species diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape heterogeneity can often be represented as a series of discrete habitat or resource patches surrounded by a matrix of non-habitat. Understanding how animals move in such networks of patches is important for many theoretical and applied questions. The probability of going from one patch to another is affected in a non-trivial way by the characteristics and location of other patches in the network. Nearby patches can compete as possible destinations, and a particular patch can be shadowed by neighboring patches. We present a way to account for the effects of the spatial configuration of patches in models of space use where individuals alternate between spending time in a patch and moving to other patches in the network. The approach is based on the original derivation of Ovaskainen and Cornell (J Appl Probab 40:557-580, 2003) for a diffusion model that considered all possible ways in which an individual leaving a particular patch can eventually reach another patch before dying or leaving the patch network. By replacing the theoretical results of Ovaskainen and Cornell by other appropriate functions, we provide generality and thus make their approach useful in contexts where diffusion is not a good approximation of movement. Furthermore, we provide ways to estimate time spent in the non-habitat matrix when going from patch to patch and implement a method to incorporate the effect of the history of previous visits on future patch use. We present an MCMC way to fit these models to data and illustrate the approach with both simulated data and data from sheep moving among seasonally flooded meadows in northern Patagonia.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many empirical studies of metacommunities have focused on the classification of observational patterns into four contrasting paradigms characterized by different levels of movement and habitat heterogeneity. However, deeper insight into the underlying local and regional processes may be derived from a combination of long-term observational data and experimental studies. With the aim of exploring forces structuring the insect metacommunity on oak, we fit a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to data from observations and experiments. The fitted model reveals large variation in species-specific dispersal abilities and basic reproduction numbers, R0. The residuals from the model show only weak correlations among species, suggesting a lack of strong interspecific interactions. Simulations with model-derived parameter estimates indicate that habitat configuration and species attributes both contribute substantially to structuring insect communities. Overall, our findings demonstrate that community-level variation in movement and life history are key drivers of metacom-munity dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In biodiversity conservation, habitat corridors are assumed to increase landscape-level connectivity and to enhance the viability of otherwise isolated populations. While the role of corridors is supported by empirical evidence, studies have typically been conducted at small spatial scales. Here, we assess the quality and the functionality of a large 95-km long forest corridor connecting two large national parks (416 and 311 km2) in the southeastern escarpment of Madagascar. We analyze the occurrence of 300 species in 5 taxonomic groups in the parks and in the corridor, and combine high-resolution forest cover data with a simulation model to examine various scenarios of corridor destruction. At present, the corridor contains essentially the same communities as the national parks, reflecting its breadth which on average matches that of the parks. In the simulation model, we consider three types of dispersers: passive dispersers, which settle randomly around the source population; active dispersers, which settle only in favorable habitat; and gap-avoiding active dispersers, which avoid dispersing across non-habitat. Our results suggest that long-distance passive dispersers are most sensitive to ongoing degradation of the corridor, because increasing numbers of propagules are lost outside the forest habitat. For a wide range of dispersal parameters, the national parks are large enough to sustain stable populations until the corridor becomes severely broken, which will happen around 2065 if the current rate of forest loss continues. A significant decrease in gene flow along the corridor is expected after 2040, and this will exacerbate the adverse consequences of isolation. Our results demonstrate that simulation studies assessing the role of habitat corridors should pay close attention to the mode of dispersal and the effects of regional stochasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The loss of suitable habitats is one of the main causes behind the loss of species and communities. Habitat fragmentation, that is, the division of the remaining habitat into small and isolated fragments, often co-occurs with the process of habitat loss. The spatial division of habitats decreases connectivity among local populations and generally has a negative effect on population viability, but it can also have a positive effect for some species, for example, due to released competition pressure., In both animals and plants, certain characteristics such as low dispersal ability and narrow ecological niche are known to be associated with fragmentation vulnerability, but in fungi, systematic analyses have so far been lacking. With their small and highly dispersive spores, fungi could be mainly resource-limited, not dispersal-limited., In this study, we analysed spatial occurrence data on 119 species of wood-inhabiting fungi to identify the species characteristics that are associated with high extinction risk and fragmentation vulnerability in particular. We modelled resource use and connectivity dependence separately for each species using the presence-absence data on 98 318 dead trees in 496 sites located on a gradient in the duration and intensity of land use in eastern Fennoscandia. We then related species' responses to connectivity to their resource-use patterns, life-history characteristics and red-list status., Our results show that red-listed species are highly specialized in their resource use and suffer from loss of connectivity at three spatial scales: along the large-scale gradient, at the landscape scale and at the scale of a forest stand. In contrast, many of the non-red-listed generalist species are actually more likely to occur (per resource unit) in fragmented managed forests than well-connected natural forests., Synthesis. We show that the expected number of red-listed species per a fixed amount of similar resources (dead trees) can be even more than 10 times higher in well-connected than in fragmented surroundings, and thus, protecting high-quality areas that are well connected is conservationally more effective than protecting small fragments distributed across the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Although the intrinsic habitat preferences of a species can be considered to be fixed, the realized habitat use depends on the prevailing abiotic and biotic conditions. Often the core habitats are occupied by dense and stable populations, while marginal habitats become occupied only at times of high density. In a community of interacting species, habitat uses of different species become inter-related, for example an increased density of a strong competitor forcing a weaker competitor to use more marginal habitats. 2. We studied the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of three common small mammal species, the bank vole Myodes glareolus; the field vole Microtus agrestis; and the common shrew Sorex araneus, in a 4-year trapping study carried out on six large islands, each containing a mixture of three main habitat types (forest, field and clear-cut). We experimentally released least weasels ( Mustela n. nivalis) to some of the islands to see how the focal species respond to increased predation pressure. 3. Both vole species were largely restricted to their core habitats (bank voles to forests and field voles to fields) at times of low population density. With increasing density, the relative habitat use of both species increased in the clear-cut areas. The common shrew was a generalist in its habitat use at all population densities. 4. The release of the weasels changed the habitat use of all study species. 5. The vole species showed a stronger aggregated pattern than the common shrew, especially at low population density. The vole aggregations remained in the same localities between seasons, except in the case of bank voles after the weasels were released. 6. Bank voles and field voles avoided each other at high density. 7. We conclude that intrinsically differential habitat requirements and flexibility to modify habitat use facilitate the coexistence of the two competing vole species in mosaic landscapes consisting of boreal forests and open habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used species-specific spore traps to measure airborne dispersal of the wood decay fungus Phlebia centrifuga (spore size 6.5-9 × 2.5-3 μm) up to 1000 m distance from a point source. We fitted two simple dispersal models, an empirical power law model and a semi-mechanistic diffusion model to the data using the Bayesian approach. The diffusion model provided a better fit than the power law model which underestimated deposition at 3-55 m and overestimated deposition at longer and shorter distances. Model fit improved by allowing overdispersion, suggesting that spores are not dispersed independently but wind can transport spores in groups inside discrete air packages up to considerable distances. Using the fitted diffusion model and available information on the establishment rates of wood-decay fungi, we examine the distance up to which colonisation from a single fruit body is likely to occur. We conclude that the diluting effect of distance and low establishment success make the occurrence of P. centrifuga dispersal limited possibly already at the distance of tens of metres and very probably at a few hundred metres from the nearest fruit body, despite the fact that under favourable conditions a high proportion of the spores can disperse considerably further. This conclusion is likely to hold generally for those fungal species that inhabit fragmented landscapes, have specialised resource and habitat requirements, and have similar spore size and other dispersal traits as P. centrifuga. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal dispersal depends on multiple factors, such as habitat features and life-history traits of the species. We studied the propensity for ballooning dispersal in spiders under standardized laboratory conditions. The 1269 tested individuals belonged to 124 species and originated from 16 sites with wide variation in habitat type. Spiders from disturbed habitats ballooned 5.5 times more than spiders from stable habitats. In Meioneta rurestris , for which we had enough data for a single-species analysis, individuals were most dispersive if they originated from highly disturbed habitats. While the data for the other species were not sufficient for single-species analyses, a hierarchical model that included the data simultaneously on all species suggested that dispersal propensity generally increases within species with the level of habitat disturbance. Dispersal probability showed a trend to increase with niche width, but the higher commonness of species with wide niches provides an alternative explanation for this pattern. As the prevalence of especially dispersive species was highest in disturbed habitats, variation in dispersal propensity was influenced by both inter- and intraspecific factors. We conclude that the positive correlation between niche width and dispersal propensity enables generalist species to utilize highly disturbed habitats, whereas the persistence of specialist species with restricted dispersal ability requires the conservation of stable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally well understood that some ecological factors select for increased and others for decreased dispersal. However, it has remained difficult to assess how the evolutionary dynamics are influenced by the spatio-temporal structure of the environment. We address this question with an individual-based model that enables habitat structure to be controlled through variables such as patch size, patch turnover rate, and patch quality. Increasing patch size at the expense of patch density can select for more or less dispersal, depending on the initial configuration. In landscapes consisting of high-quality and long-lived habitat patches, patch degradation selects for increased dispersal, yet patch loss may select for reduced dispersal. These trends do not depend on the component of life-history that is affected by habitat quality or the component of life-history through which density-dependence operates. Our results are based on a mathematical method that enables derivation of both the evolutionary stable strategy and the stationary genotype distribution that evolves in a polymorphic population. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions. However, the evolutionary stable strategy assumes that the ecological and evolutionary time scales can be separated, and we find that violation of this assumption can critically alter the evolutionary outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Signals of species interactions can be inferred from survey data by asking if some species occur more or less often together than what would be expected by random, or more generally, if any structural aspect of the community deviates from that expected from a set of independent species. However, a positive (or negative) association between two species does not necessarily signify a direct or indirect interaction, as it can result simply from the species having similar (or dissimilar) habitat requirements. We show how these two factors can be separated by multivariate logistic regression, with the regression part accounting for species-specific habitat requirements, and a correlation matrix for the positive or negative residual associations. We parameterize the model using Bayesian inference with data on 22 species of wood-decaying fungi acquired in 14 dissimilar forest sites. Our analyses reveal that some of the species commonly found to occur together in the same logs are likely to do so merely by similar habitat requirements, whereas other species combinations are systematically either over- or underrepresented also or only after accounting for the habitat requirements. We use our results to derive hypotheses on species interactions that can be tested in future experimental work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Habitat loss and fragmentation is a leading cause of species extinction. This not only concerns loss of major habitats, but also loss of microclimatic heterogeneity within such habitats. 2. In this study, we examine the effects of microclimate on the abundance and movements of Onthophagus gibbulus, a dung beetle associated with pastoral habitats. While formerly widespread in Southern Finland, the species is now critically endangered at a national level, persisting within an area of 6 km2. 3. We divided the Finnish distribution of O. gibbulus into 50 × 50-m grid cells, characterised local microclimate by incident solar radiation, and surveyed the distribution of O. gibbulus within a subset of cells. To investigate the impact of microclimatic conditions on dung beetle movements, we conducted a mark–release–recapture study. 4. Our approach allowed us to estimate the national population size of O. gibbulus– a figure rarely available for endangered insect species. The Finnish population of O. gibbulus comprises between 2000 and 6000 individuals. 5. The abundance of beetles per dung pat increases with incident solar radiation, and beetles are more likely to move towards warmer than colder spots in the landscape. 6. Overall, our study depicts O. gibbulus as a thermophile confined to the warmest part of the landscape, and offers loss of microclimatic variation as the cause for its large-scale decline. To conserve O. gibbulus and similar species, we need to consider not only the amount of macrohabitats, but also the amount and distribution of microclimatic variation within them. Future predictions are complicated by ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used harmonic radar to track freely flying Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) females within an area of 30 ha. Butterflies originated from large and continuous populations in China and Estonia, and from newly established or old (> 5 years) small local populations in a highly fragmented landscape in Finland. Caterpillars were raised under common garden conditions and unmated females were tested soon after eclosion. The reconstructed flight paths for 66 individuals comprised a total distance of 51 km with high spatial resolution. Butterflies originating from large continuous populations and from old local populations in Finland exhibited similar movement behaviors, whereas butterflies originating from newly established local populations in the fragmented landscape in Finland moved significantly more than the others. There was no difference in the lengths of individual flight bouts, but the new-population females flew more frequently, resulting in longer daily movement tracks. The flight activity of all individuals was affected by environmental conditions, peaking at 19-23°C (depending on population type), in the early afternoon, and during calm weather. Butterflies from all population types showed a strong tendency to follow habitat edges between the open study area and the neighboring woodlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metapopulation dynamics lead to predictable patterns of habitat occupancy, population density and trophic structure in relation to landscape features such as habitat patch size and isolation. Comparable patterns may occur in behavioural, physiological and life-history traits but remain little studied. In the Glanville fritillary butterfly, females in newly established populations were more mobile than females in old populations. Among females from new populations, mobility decreased with increasing connectivity (decreasing isolation), but in females from old populations mobility increased with connectivity. The [ATP]/[ADP]ratio of flight muscles following controlled activity showed the same pattern as mobility in relation to population age and connectivity, suggesting that physiological differences in flight metabolic performance contribute to the observed variation in mobility. We demonstrate with an evolutionary metapopulation model parameterised for the Glanville fritillary that increasing spatial variation in landscape structure increases variance in mobility among individuals in a metapopulation, supporting the general notion that complex landscape structure maintains life-history variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derive measures for assessing the value of an individual habitat fragment for the dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation living in a network of many fragments. We demonstrate that the most appropriate measure of fragment value depends on the question asked. Specifically, we analyse four alternative measures: the contribution of a fragment to the metapopulation capacity of the network, to the equilibrium metapopulation size, to the expected time to metapopulation extinction and the long-term contribution of a fragment to colonization events in the network. The latter measure is comparable to density-dependent measures in general matrix population theory, though some differences are introduced by the fact that “density dependence” is spatially localized in the metapopulation context. We show that the value of a fragment depends not only on the properties of the landscape but also on the properties of the species. Most importantly, variation in fragment values between the habitat fragments is greatest in the case of rare species that occur close to the extinction threshold, as these species are likely to be restricted to the most favorable parts of the landscape. We expect that the measures of habitat fragment value described and analysed here have applications in landscape ecology and in conservation biology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Transient time in population dynamics refers to the time it takes for a population to return to population-dynamic equilibrium (or close to it) following a perturbation in the environment or in population size. Depending on the direction of the perturbation, transient time may either denote the time until extinction (or until the population has decreased to a lower equilibrium level), or the recovery time needed to reach a higher equilibrium level. In the metapopulation context, the length of the transient time is set by the interplay between population dynamics and landscape structure. Assuming a spatially realistic metapopulation model, we show that transient time is a product of four factors: the strength of the perturbation, the ratio between the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and a threshold value determined by the properties of the species, and the characteristic turnover rate of the species, adjusted by a factor depending on the structure of the habitat patch network. Transient time is longest following a large perturbation, for a species which is close to the threshold for persistence, for a species with slow turnover, and in a habitat patch network consisting of only a few dynamically important patches. We demonstrate that the essential behaviour of the n-dimensional spatially realistic Levins model is captured by the one-dimensional Levins model with appropriate parameter transformations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Simple analytical models assuming homogeneous space have been used to examine the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on metapopulation size. The models predict an extinction threshold, a critical amount of suitable habitat below which the metapopulation goes deterministically extinct. The consequences of non-random loss of habitat for species with localized dispersal have been studied mainly numerically. In this paper, we present two analytical approaches to the study of habitat loss and its metapopulation dynamic consequences incorporating spatial correlation in both metapopulation dynamics as well as in the pattern of habitat destruction. One approach is based on a measure called metapopulation capacity, given by the dominant eigenvalue of a “landscape” matrix, which encapsulates the effects of landscape structure on population extinctions and colonizations. The other approach is based on pair approximation. These models allow us to examine analytically the effects of spatial structure in habitat loss on the equilibrium metapopulation size and the threshold condition for persistence. In contrast to the pair approximation based approaches, the metapopulation capacity based approach allows us to consider species with long as well as short dispersal range and landscapes with spatial correlation at different scales. The two methods make dissimilar assumptions, but the broad conclusions concerning the consequences of spatial correlation in the landscape structure are the same. Our results show that increasing correlation in the spatial arrangement of the remaining habitat increases patch occupancy, that this increase is more evident for species with short-range than long-range dispersal, and that to be most beneficial for metapopulation size, the range of spatial correlation in landscape structure should be at least a few times greater than the dispersal range of the species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Discusses the metapopulation capacity, a new measure for highly fragmented landscapes to predict the population dynamic consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation. Derivation of the measure from metapopulation theory; Metapopulation capacity an eigenvalue of an appropriate landscape matrix.

Abstract Empirical studies have shown that, unlike species with specialized resource requirements, generalist species may benefit from habitat destruction. We use a family of models to probe the causes of the contrasting responses of these two types of species to habitat destruction. Our approach allows a number of mechanisms to be switched on and off, thereby making it possible to study their marginal and joint effects. Unlike many previous models, we do not assume any intrinsic competitive asymmetry between the species, and we assume pre-emptive rather than displacement competition. Under these assumptions, in the mean-field model the prevalences of all species decrease monotonically with decreasing habitat availability, independently of the degree of specialization. However, in the stochastic and spatial individual-based simulations of the same model, the specialists dominate in landscapes of high quality, whereas generalists thrive in landscapes of intermediate quality; no species persist in very poor landscapes. The same pattern also occurs in a non-spatial stochastic model but not in a deterministic spatial model, showing that demographic stochasticity plays a key role in shaping the outcome of competitive interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We model systems where habitat patches emerge if suitable sites are disturbed. • Metapopulation persistence is usually impaired if disturbances shift in space over time. • Metapopulation persistence may improve if disturbances move to highly suitable areas. • Disturbances that had a moderate degree of mobility have the most uncertain effects. • Separating site suitability from disturbances creates new prospects for modelling. Certain early-succession habitats may emerge only at restricted locations following disturbance. Therefore, whether disturbances tend to occur at certain sites or not can significantly affect habitat availability and metapopulation persistence of early-successional habitat specialists. Available models that combine metapopulation and landscape processes do not address how to model mobile, spatially shifting disturbance intensities independent of factors of site suitability. We present a model that allows the study on how a mobile disturbance pattern, of either natural or anthropogenic origin, affects patch network and metapopulation dynamics in realistic, heterogeneous landscapes. We simulate metapopulation dynamics using a realistic landscape and varying patch destruction (and turnover) rates. We model the local patch emergence rate as the function of site suitability to patch emergence –a permanent factor–and local disturbance intensity, which we first estimate from empirical data and then simulate using annually updating spatial random fields. Using this model, we test whether and how a mobile disturbance pattern affects metapopulation persistence of the false heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea diamina). In our case study, a mobile disturbance pattern caused new patches to emerge further away from occupied patches over time. This decreased the probability of new patches becoming colonized and thus impaired metapopulation persistence even when the median distance between patches appeared unchanging. However, if disturbances moved to areas that were highly suitable to patch emergence, increased habitat availability could compensate the otherwise detrimental effects of a mobile disturbance pattern. Disturbances that had a moderate degree of mobility had the most uncertain effects to metapopulation persistence. Our modelling approach distinguishes between two processes behind the spatio-temporal pattern and rates of patch emergence–disturbance dynamics and varying site suitability. It enables the use of social and environmental data for forecasting habitat availability for early-succession habitat specialists under alternative future scenarios. It can be applied and developed further to suit multiple study systems. Our case study suggests that for species conservation, it is either beneficial to organize recurring management activities to take place at constant locations, or to gradually shift them towards areas that are highly suitable to patch emergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolation of habitats in space and time affects species globally and in a multitude of ecosystems. It is however often difficult to assess the level of isolation from the point of view of the focal species. Indicator species are often used to assess ‘conservation value’ of habitats. One such approach involves the use of wood-decaying fungal species as indicators of near-natural forests, continuity in old-forest characteristics over time, and/or presence of red-listed species, but not of spatial connectivity. The indicator species were commonly assigned based on expert opinions, but few scientific evaluations have been performed of what these species actually indicate. Building on previous classifications of wood-decaying fungal indicator species on Norway spruce, we hypothesized that indicator species would differ from non-indicator species in how they respond to local temporal connectivity (forest age, the intensity of historical selective logging and the presence of well-decomposed large logs), and to local and landscape-scale spatial connectivity (local forest area, local amount of deadwood and the connectivity to old forest in the surrounding landscape). Based on fungal occurrence data from a fixed number of spruce logs at 28 sites distributed across the Scandinavian Peninsula, we explored the spatiotemporal scales at which the local communities were affected by connectivity. Indicator species showed the strongest response to connectivity of old forest (≥80 years) within 100 km, while non-indicator species depended on connectivity of younger forest (≥40 years) at a smaller spatial scale (≤25 km). Indicator species increased and non-indicator species decreased in total abundance with the increasing age of the local forest stand. Landscape-scale old-forest connectivity was beneficial for indicator species in all sites except those with relatively low amount of deadwood, while non-indicator species showed the opposite pattern. We identify a threshold of around 29 m 3  ha −1 in the amount of spruce logs where indicator species become abundant enough to influence non-indicator species through competitive interactions. There was a pronounced uniformity within each species group in the connectivity responses. We conclude that the studied indicator species indicate high forest age, high amount of resources and, given that the resources are plentiful, also high old-forest connectivity, but they do not indicate a long history without any logging operations or local deadwood continuity. The studied non-indicator species did not indicate any of the studied spatiotemporal connectivity variables. Indicator species are usually red-listed and may continue to decline in the future without habitat restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation translocation is a controversial, yet sometimes the only applicable, conservation tool in the face of the human-induced environmental change. One important aspect often neglected in translocation experiments is predicting the spatial expansion potential of the translocated population in the release area. In this study, we used a spatially explicit movement model to project the expansion rate of a translocated clouded Apollo ( Parnassius mnemosyne ) population. The model was parameterised with data collected from the source population inhabiting an open landscape with well-connected habitat patches. We then used these parameter estimates to simulate the spread of the translocated population in the new area, which was a forested landscape with more fragmented habitat. We tested the model predictions by comparing them to the observed expansion rate between 2000 and 2016. Additionally, we tested whether including annually varying weather conditions would increase realism in the projections. Model predictions were qualitatively correct and quantitatively most accurate for flight seasons with prevailing weather conditions similar to those of the season when the data for parameter estimation was collected. We conclude that spatially explicit movement models are potential tools to improve the planning of future conservation translocations in terms of choosing the optimal release area, as they enable the comparison of functional connectivities even between structurally different landscapes. However, our results suggest that a model fitted based on movement data from a single year may not be representative for the overall dispersal rates due to temporal variation in dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]