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This study investigates the relationship between political stability, military expenditure, and economic growth in Tanzania, from 2002 to 2022. The study uses the ARDL model due to its ability to handle variables with different orders of integration, its flexibility in capturing dynamic relationships, and its robustness in providing insights into both short-term and long-term interactions among variables. The ARDL bounds test has revealed the existence of cointegration, suggesting the presence of long-run relationships among variables. Moreover, the empirical results show that past GDP is positively related to current economic growth, while the effect of voice and accountability on economic growth remains statistically insignificant. Further, the effects of regulatory quality and the rule of law on economic growth exhibit mixed effects. Also, the individual effects of political stability and military expenditure on the economy remain positive and statistically significant. However, the interaction of political stability and military spending is negatively related with the current economic growth but positively correlated with economic growth in the long run. These findings underscore the imperative of political stability and strategic military expenditure as critical ingredients in generating sustainable economic growth in Tanzania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper study the effects of Thailand's 2014 military coup on Thailand's economy using the control method to create synthetic Thailand, which represents hypothetical Thailand had the 2014 coup not occurred. The empirical findings reveal no statistically significant effects on key economic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment, military expenditure, and income inequality. Contrary to previous research, military expenditures did not increase following the coup. Supporters of the coup may interpret these results as evidence that the coup had no negative effects on the economy. At the same time, critics may argue that the coup did not lead to improved economic outcomes compared with the politically unstable precoup period, thus perpetuating a state of national stagnation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We examine whether changes of government influence compliance with international agreements. We investigate compliance with the NATO two percent target to which all NATO countries committed themselves during the NATO summit in Wales in 2014. The dataset includes the military expenditure by NATO countries over the period 2010–2018. The results suggest that countries that do not (yet) comply with the two percent target have smaller growth rates in military expenditure relative to GDP when they experienced a large change of government, e.g. a change from a rightwing to a leftwing government, than countries that did not experience such a large change of government since the NATO summit in 2014. Countries that experienced a large change of government are, thus, less likely to comply with the two percent target. Future research should examine the credibility problem of national governments in other international agreements too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan and India have been arch-enemies since their independence from the British Rule. There have been over four full-fledged armed conflicts, countless border skirmishes and cross-border ceasefire violations between these neighbouring countries. Their mutual relationships have often nosedived to a point where the nuclear conflagration seemed real possibility. While India is among the five largest military spenders in the world, Pakistan spends a disproportionately larger share of its GDP on defence to neutralize the Indian military advantage. While Pakistan's military expenditure is largely India-specific, it is not clear if the reverse is also true. Therefore, this study explores if the military expenditure of India and Pakistan are causally associated with each other or the arms race is asymmetric. Using the maximum entropy bootstrapping method and a series of robustness checks, we find that while military expenditure of Pakistan is shaped by the Indian military expenditure, the military expenditure in India is not Pakistan-specific. This study has important policy implications for the region because Pakistan may explore alternative strategic relationships with India. A revision of strategic relationship between the two South Asian neighbours may help in the resolution of the long-standing political, social and economic problems of both the countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Military spending associated with wars has been a major cause of government deficits and debt financing. This paper looks at the association between debt and defence spending in the UK over the last three centuries. The paper reviews the history, discusses the theory and provides some estimates of the effect of variations in military expenditure on debt. The association tends to be quite close and the effect of the change in the share of military spending in GDP on the debt–GDP ratio is quite stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth at regional economic communities of African countries. With a balanced panel of 34 African countries spanning 1990–2015. The variables of interest for this study include military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product per capita serves as the proxy, while state fragility is measured by the state fragility index, and military expenditure by military expenditure as a percentage share of GDP. We utilise: panel causality and cointegration test; and the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques. The causality results suggest a feedback relationship among our variables of interest and this justified the use of GMM. Our analysis suggests that the effect of military expenditure on growth is negative at Africa level with significant regional economic level differences, and this effect is influenced in the presence of state fragility. This imply that there exist complementary effects between military expenditure and state fragility on growth. A cut in military expenditure and a consideration of other means of dealing with fragility issues as an alternative to joint regional militarised intervention of regional governments of African countries is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and Industry Value Added growth) in 31 transition economies during the 1985-2018 period and in a series of different samples by applying the Panel VAR GMM methodology. The empirical results reveal different patterns of the significant association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables, which is positive for certain samples and negative for others. The causality analysis shows that in the vast majority of the cases, the causality direction runs from military expenditure towards the examined growth and development related variables. In addition, the analysis provides uniform evidence on certain positive impacts of defense expenditure on population growth and schooling and negative impacts on savings. The results from the Ex-Soviet Economies are of particular interest as the association between military expenditure and the examined growth-related variables, becomes positive. We interpret the results in the context of the wider characteristics of the particular geographical area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article conducts a meta-analysis of the effect of military expenditures on growth within a structured analytic framework. We extend the pioneering study of Aynur Alptekin and Paul Levine, by using a much larger sample of studies. Like them we confine our attention to studies that use the share of military expenditure in GDP, the military burden, as the independent variable, but unlike them we include not just those that use the military burden directly, what we call the core sample, but also those that use other functions of it, such as logarithms, differences, etc., which we call the remaining sample. We also consider an overall sample which pools all results. The t -statistic on the coefficient of military burden is used as the dependent variable. Our null hypothesis is that military expenditure has no significant effect on growth and we explain why this is plausible. The estimates are sensitive to the sample and type of data used, estimation method adopted, and the controls included. Overall, the results are consistent with the hypothesis of no effect: the average effect across all studies is close to zero. Certain study characteristics appear significant determinants of the effect of military expenditure on growth, but there does not appear to be a simple pattern and different characteristics were significant in the three samples. This might be a result of data mining to produce a significant result. However, there does not appear to be strong evidence of publication bias towards positive or negative results, perhaps because there is no strong a priori belief in the direction of the effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007-2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO's 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct and indirect causes of armed conflict in South Asia is perhaps the single most important reason for increasing military expenditure. It is also a significant threat to the growth of national output in the region. This study examines the impact of conflict on economic growth in conflict-affected South Asian countries from 1980-2014 by employing sufficient determinants, the Solow growth model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration. Since military expenditure and military participation have increased simultaneously with internal and external conflict, this study used military expenditure per warring population as a proxy for conflict. Apart from mixed conclusions in the literature, the results of this study suggest that conflict contributes significantly to decreasing per capita GDP in the shortand long-run across South Asia. The findings indicate that the effect is high in the longrun and is most severe in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India since 85% of conflict in South Asia occurred in these three countries. The study recommends that policymakers and governments should adopt constructive policies to prevent and control internal and external conflicts. Ending conflict undoubtedly leads to minimising the cost of conflict and supports ways of enhancing output in South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis at the end of 2009 in Greece led to a severe recession, and constant economic problems. This paper investigates military expenditure among others as a potential factor to the growth of sovereign debt in Greece over the period 1960 until currently. Our empirical findings suggest that high deficits, inflation and military spending have been the primary causes of debt growth in Greece. The structural break models reveal a much higher effect of deficits and inflation in the post-1990 period while the threshold switching regression, based on the level of sovereign debt, indicate that for levels of debt-to-GDP ratio above 90% deficits, inflation and military expenditures had significantly more pronounced effects on government debt changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the role of military expenditure on emission in USA during the period 1960-2015. To achieve the objectives of this study, two measures of military expenditure are utilised, while several timeseries models are constructed with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, renewable energy consumption per capita, urbanisation, trade openness and financial development serving as additional determinants of air pollution. We also use ecological indicator as an alternative measure of pollution. Moreover, different timeseries methods are utilised including a likelihood-based approach with two structural breaks. The output of this research concluded that all the variables are cointegrated. It is found that military expenditure has mixed impact on CO2 emissions. Real GDP per capita, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, population and urbanisation increase CO2 emissions per capita in the long-run, while renewable energy consumption, financial development and trade openness reduce it. There is also evidence for the mixed role of military expenditure, when ecological footprint is utilised as the environmental degradation index. From the output of this research, few policy recommendations are offered for the examined country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines military expenditure and defence policy in Norway from 1970 to 2013. Until 1990 Norwegian military expenditure remained between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite constant GDP shares, the military expenditure could not sustain a large and properly armed mobilization army. The constant nominal defence budgets of the 1990s accentuated the Norwegian Armed Forces' underlying imbalance between tasks, structure and budget. Around year 2000, large organizational reforms were effectuated, in which costs, the number of man-years, and underlying imbalances between tasks, structure and budget were reduced. Military expenditure increased in nominal terms between 2003 and 2013, while real military expenditure remained practically constant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyzed the evolution of the main military statistical indicators in Romania from 2004 until 2015 as provided by the World Bank: Armed forces personnel (total), Armed forces personnel (% of total labor force), Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure), Military expenditure (% of GDP), Military expenditure (current LCU). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to explore the development of Russian military spending in light of weak and negative growth of the Russian economy and to look at the reasons for the economic decline that has developed after the economic crisis in 2009 and is due to long-term internal structural factors that have existed since the mid-2000s. The confidence crisis resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine 2014, Western sanctions and falling oil prices has further aggravated these tendencies and the economy is now contracting. The main conclusions are that the share of the defense budget in GDP has risen substantially, but there is still a trade-off between defense and other public spending in the budget. Political reform would be necessary to implement market institutions and revive the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between defence burden and real gross domestic products in Nigeria, using annual time series data. This study uses Johansen's Cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between government's military expenditure (defence burden) and real gross domestic products, among other variables. In light of the lingering controversy on military expenditure and growth nexus, this paper contributes to the existing literature using time-series data from Nigeria, a country with high military spending over the years to re-investigate the impact of military expenditures on economic growth and the direction of causality between military spending and economic growth. Specifically, this study discusses the long run relationship between military expenditure and economic growth using Johansen cointegration approach. The key variables used in the study include: military burden (military expenditure), real GDP, real education expenditure, real health expenditure. The nature of the relationship that exists between military expenditure and economic growth as well as the cointegrating vector, taking into cognizance all other variables is focus of this paper. The results of the study show that increased defence burden is harmful to the Nigerian economy, and there exists a negative long-run relationship between defence burden and increase in the growth of real gross domestic products, the impact of defence burden remains negative both in the short-run and long-run respectively. It is not sufficient to have cuts in military expenditure, but such reallocation from defence should be directed towards productive investment in other sectors of the economy in order to generate economic prosperity and enhance the welfare of the citizens. Implications of having a negative effect of defence burden on growth rate of real Gross Domestic Products result in crowding-out of private sector investment, retards economic progress or growth rate of real gross domestic products, and therefore, is an ineffective tool to stimulate the growth of the economy in Nigeria. Military expenditure cannot be an effective tool of fiscal policy (government revenue and expenditure to regulate the economy), from the results of the study both short-run and long-run impact are negative, hence, the role of military sector should be limited to the maintenance of internal law and order as well as the defence of the country against any form of external aggression. This study will be of immense significance towards shaping policies that relate to military spending in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the economic effects of increasing military expenditure, a requirement in the Republic of Korea. The effects of military expenditure are examined with various scenarios concerning financial resources from an endogenous growth perspective. The dynamic Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed in order to measure the aggregate effect of changes in military expenditure. Raising the indirect tax rate is the best for GDP, but a corporate income tax rate increase is the best for gross output. The differences between short-term and long-term effects are verified by the dynamic change in each indicator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been much debate in many forums to seek a settlement of the Darfur conflict (DC), but no study has addressed its economic cost. This study is the first attempt to quantify the economic cost of the DC. The war’s costs include the destruction of infrastructure, direct military spending attributable to the war effort, and the impact of the latter on capital formation. In addition, the human destruction – loss of life and income – must be taken into account. Our calculations show that the government of Sudan has incurred costs totaling US$30.5 billion, equivalent to 171% of 2003 Gross Domestic Product GDP, on the war in Darfur. This includes $10.1 billion in direct military expenses; $7.2 billion in the lost productivity of internally displaces persons; $2.6 billion in foregone lifetime earnings of the dead; $4.1 billion in infrastructure damage; and $6.5 billion in war impacts on GDP. The total costs of the war are $41.5 billion if we added military spillover and African Union/UN hybrid operation in Darfur peace-keeping operations of $10.9 billion. While the country has spent only 1.3% of its budget on public health and less than 1% on education over the past two decades. The war consumes 13% of GDP in a society that lacks the means to provide the basic entitlements of education, food, health care, and shelter to its people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper makes a contribution to the debate on the economic effects of military spending using a large cross-country panel data-set for 1988–2006. As well as providing a relatively up to date analysis, sub-groups are created that allow the analysis to focus on groups of countries at different income levels and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an area which has seen a large number of damaging conflicts. Estimating the empirical growth model gives results that show variation across the sub-groups, with the general picture of significant negative short-run effect and insignificant long-run effect of military burden on per capita GDP growth, not consistent across the different income groups. In addition, breaking down the SSA group into those involved in conflict and those that are not, provides some further intriguing findings that suggest the value of further work on the impact of conflict on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the paper is to decipher the military expenditure-economic growth relationship, taking the level of economic development (income) into consideration. Our findings suggest the following: (i) military expenditure has a significantly negative relationship to economic growth for the 23 countries with initial incomes (threshold variable) less than or equal to $475.93; (ii) when the threat level is heightened, economic growth (23 countries) is expected to decrease. However, military expenditure in the presence of sufficiently large threats increases growth; (iii) for the remaining 69 countries whose initial incomes (real GDP per capita in 1992 price) exceed $475.93, no significant relationship exists whether the threat variable is taken into consideration or not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable. Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper clarifies one of the puzzling results of the economic growth literature: the impact of military expenditure is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. We start by empirical evaluation of the non-linear interactions between military expenditure, external threats, corruption, and other relevant controls. While growth falls with higher levels of military spending, given the values of the other independent variables, we show that military expenditure in the presence of threats increases growth. We explain the presence of these non-linearities in an extended version of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), allowing the dependence of growth on the severity of external threats, and on the effective military expenditure associated with these threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greece has over the years allocated substantial human and material resources to defence. Its defence burden (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been substantially higher than the EU and NATO averages. Furthermore, during the post-bipolar period, when the defence budgets of most countries shrunk, Greek defence spending grew in real terms. This paper contributes to the existing literature on Greek defence spending and its effects by empirically estimating the impact of such expenditures on the country's fiscal situation during the period 1960-2001 something that has largely been ignored in the relevant literature. In particular, it focuses on the effects of military spending on government debt and its two components: internal and external debt. The empirical findings reported here suggest that central government debt and, in particular, external debt has been adversely influenced by military expenditure but also by the domestic political cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a statistical model to examine the overtime relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The model is based on a neoclassical production function, and is developed and estimated for the time period 1950 to 1985. The results indicate that the size effects of military expenditure on economic growth are negative, while the externality effects of military spending are positive. In addition, decreasing foreign investment and increasing domestic unrest are found to have negative impacts on GDP growth. Labor employment is positively related to growth, but non-white labor is more strongly significant than white labor. These results are consistent with previous cross-section studies that find some evidence for positive and negative effects of military spending on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the use of the ARDL model to identify military expenditure determinants of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). Factors influencing military expenditure include the variables characterizing the economic environment of the analyzed countries (GDP per Capita, Government Deficit/Surplus, General Government Gross Debt, Inflation), and the security environment measured by Risk of Foreign Pressures, Risk of Cross-border Conflict, and Democratic Accountability. General conclusions about the analysis of relationships between the military expenditure level and selected economics and security determinants were confirmed in the cases of Government Deficit/Surplus, GDP per Capita and Inflation. The results, therefore, indicate that the military expenditure of Estonia and Lithuania depended on the state budget deficit where military expenditure tended to go down in relation to an increasing deficit within the assessed period. As far as Estonia is concerned, the findings about relationship between the economic position and military expenditure was validated as an increasing economic performance tended to increase military expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study revisited the existing evidences of India Pakistan and China with updated data on the effect of military expenditure on economic growth. Econometric approaches analyzed the short and long run relationship between GDP growth and Military expenditure. Empirical studies have been done using cointegration analysis and causality test to justify the relationship and causality of the variables. Interestingly, study obtained positive log-run relation, no short run relationship and unidirectional long run causality in every cases, but for different degrees of relationship. Obtained results are robust and passed necessary diagnostic tests significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]