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The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, increasing its contribution to the freshwater input into the Nordic Seas and the subpolar North Atlantic. It has been proposed that this increased freshwater may impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by affecting the stratification of the convective regions of the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Observations of the transformation and pathways of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet on the continental shelf and in the gyre interior, however, are lacking. Here, we report on noble gas derived observations of submarine meltwater distribution and transports in the East and West Greenland Current Systems of southern Greenland and around Cape Farewell. In southeast Greenland, submarine meltwater is concentrated in the East Greenland Coastal Current core with maximum concentrations of 0.8%, thus significantly diluted relative to fjord observations. It is found in water with density ranges from 1,024 to 1027.2 kg m−3 and salinity from 30.6 to 34, which extends as deep as 250 m and as far offshore as 60 km on the Greenland shelf. Submarine meltwater transport on the shelf averages 5.0 ± 1.6 mSv which, if representative of the mean annual transport, represents 60%–80% of the total solid ice discharge from East Greenland and suggests relatively little offshore export of meltwater east and upstream of Cape Farewell. The location of the meltwater transport maximum shifts toward the shelfbreak around Cape Farewell, positioning the meltwater for offshore flux in regions of known cross‐shelf exchange along the West Greenland coast. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing a lot of ice very quickly and this is causing more lightweight freshwater to flow into the North Atlantic Ocean. This extra freshwater could possibly influence the way that the surface and interior of the ocean interact, impacting global ocean currents. We do not have enough information about how the ice that is melting from Greenland is affecting the ocean, in part because we do not have many tools to observe where the meltwater goes. In this work, we made measurements with the best tools available to follow the ice melted from marine terminating glaciers as it travels around Greenland. We were able to make some of the most comprehensive direct measurements of the oceanic pathways of glacial meltwater in coastal Greenland. We found that the freshwater from Greenlandic glacier's submarine melted ice is not very concentrated when it gets to the ocean, but it does go deep and, at first, not too far away from the shore. The Greenland meltwater stays close to shore along the east coast up to Cape Farewell. However, meltwater moves farther from shore after that and may mix out into the open ocean from there. Key Points: Direct measurements of the pathways and fluxes of glacial meltwater in coastal GreenlandLittle offshore export of meltwater east and upstream of Cape FarewellMeltwater moves offshore toward shelfbreak around Cape Farewell [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the "retreat" and "submarine melt" implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet and the glacier-covered areas of Alaska and other Arctic lands are losing ice at an accelerating rate, contributing billions of tons of water to sea level rise. Surface melt and runoff is now increasing more quickly than all other factors driving Greenland's ice loss, although faster glacier outflow remains important. [Extracted from the article]