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Climate change, originating from greenhouse gas emissions, yields profound implications such as escalated temperatures, severe storms, disruptions in food supply chains, and amplified seismic activity, particularly impacting arid regions. As the world's largest economy and the second-largest CO2 emitter, the United States actively leads initiatives aimed at addressing environmental challenges and aligning with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13. This study delves into the determinants shaping renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions within the United States, aiming to elucidate their pivotal role in advancing carbon neutrality efforts. Using quarterly data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this investigation employs the time-varying TVP-SV-VAR model to dissect the dynamic interplay among these variables. The findings reveal intricate connections across short, medium, and long-term periods: renewable energy adoption, eco-innovations, and uncertainties in climate policy were observed to mitigate CO2 emissions. Conversely, financial development exhibited a consistent association with increased CO2 emissions across all timeframes. Additionally, the progression of renewable energy sources showcased responsiveness to climate policy uncertainties, eco-innovations, and financial development across each timeframe. These outcomes hold substantial implications for the United States' pursuit of carbon neutrality goals, emphasizing the pivotal role of promoting renewable energy initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mandatory climate change reporting is suggested as a mechanism for mitigating firms' climate change impact and, in particular, their carbon emissions. Although extant literature provides evidence of a negative association between the introduction of carbon reporting regulation and firms' carbon emissions, the literature on real effects of climate change reporting regulation is still in its infancy and has yet to provide evidence of the channels through which reporting regulation affects firms' real climate change‐related activities. By adopting the theoretical framework of the targeted transparency action cycle, which describes the mechanism leading to the real effects of reporting regulation, we provide empirical evidence on how external pressures exerted on firms and internal policies adopted by them shape the effects of carbon reporting regulation on firms' actual carbon emissions. We take advantage of the 2013 amendments of the UK Companies Act 2006, which made the United Kingdom the first country in the world to require its listed firms to report carbon emissions in their annual reports, and we empirically show that, first, after the introduction of the new reporting regulation, firms exhibit significantly lower levels of carbon emissions; second, these effects are more prominent in firms under higher external pressure; and third, firms that engage with relevant climate change policies exhibit a much larger reduction of their carbon emissions after the regulation took effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the study of legislation in the sphere of adaptation of agricultural production to climate change. It is noted that the implementation of this type of activity is not only related to environmental pollution, but also directly depends on favorable climatic conditions. It is stated that the norms that regulate relations in the sphere of adaptation of agricultural production to climate change in Ukraine are contained in various legal acts, mostly of a strategic or conceptual in nature. Sometimes their norms are inconsistent and contradictory. There is no mechanism for the implementation of the measures established in these documents. So, their implementation becomes optional. In particular, the Recommendations on the adaptation of agriculture to climate change for the period up to 2030, which are provided by the Action Plan for the Implementation of the Realization Concept of State Policy in the Sphere of Climate Change for the Period up to 2030, approved by the Decree of the CMU of December 6, 2017 № 878-p, are unadopted. It is claimed that for solving the problem of adaptation of agriculture to climate change, it is especially important to increase the role of organic production as an activity that contributes to sustainable development of rural areas and solving a number of social problems. Because organic production is one of the most common direction of climate smart agriculture, it is proposed to put Consept of this one on basis of the legislation about adaptation of Ukrainian agricult ure to climate change. Taking into account the significant negative impact of agricultural production to the environment, we propouse to provide agriculture among the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions (industry, energy and transport) into the Ukrainian Law of February 28, 2019 «About the Basic Principles (Strategy) of the Ukrainian State Environmental Policy for the Period up to 2 030» (part I) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a very debated topic among academia, national and international institutions. Therefore, policies and tools for diminishing pollutant emissions are in place in a number of countries. Among them, taxation and renewable energy use seem to be among the most important. This paper aims at testing the impact of certain tools for climate change policy implementation, such as environmental taxes, renewable energy use, real productivity, employment rate taking into consideration the level of economic development and the GINI coefficient, on the greenhouse gas emissions in two important sectors of the economy: industry and commerce. Panel data analysis is used for a cluster of nine developing countries of the European Union that have the per capita GDP at purchasing power parity lower than 80% of the EU average, during 2008-2021. Similar to other studies, the results show a negative relationship between environmental taxation and greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector, and a positive one in the commercial sector. The latter is explained by the fact that transport, which is a main pollutant sector, is also one of the most difficult sectors to achieve green transition, given high associated costs. The analysis also shows that renewable energy use discourages the emissions of greenhouse gases, both in the industrial and commercial sectors, so that fostering investment in renewables is an important factor for addressing climate change and promoting a sustainable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores a backlash against the net zero greenhouse gas emissions target within the UK. It introduces the term "anti-net zero populism" to analyse ideological and opportunistic counter-movements working to undermine climate policy. It builds a conceptual framework based on the literatures on "policy dismantling" and "discursive opportunity structures" to analyse how right-wing populists seek to undermine the net zero goal and dismantle policies. The article compares these efforts across six specific policy areas involved in pursuing net zero. Overall, it contributes to understanding the roles of discourse for policy dismantling, and the comparative strategies pursued to undermine net zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial communities play a crucial role in ocean ecology and global biogeochemical processes. However, understanding the intricate interactions among diversity, taxonomical composition, functional traits, and how these factors respond to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we propose seven distinct ecological statuses by systematically considering the diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential of the ocean microbiome to delineate their biogeography. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the ecological status of the surface ocean by influencing environmental conditions, particularly nutrient and oxygen contents. Our predictive model, which utilizes machine learning, indicates that the ecological status of approximately 32.44% of the surface ocean may undergo changes from the present to the end of this century, assuming no policy interventions. These changes mainly include poleward shifts in the main taxa, increases in photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreases in nutrient metabolism. However, this proportion can decrease significantly with effective control of greenhouse gas emissions. Our study underscores the urgent necessity for implementing policies to mitigate climate change, particularly from an ecological perspective. Zhang et al. propose the ecological status of the ocean by considering microbial diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential. Ecological status of 32.44% surface ocean will change due to climate change in 2100, assuming no policy intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study theorizes and empirically tests whether firms' decisions to join multi‐stakeholder initiatives, targeting climate mitigation, lead to improved environmental performance. We focus on firms' participations in the Science Based Targets initiative, a multi‐stakeholder initiative meant to support firms in setting greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets in line with the thresholds defined by the Paris Agreement in 2015. The study hypothesizes that participation reduces firm's concerns about uncertainty and encourages investments in timeous internal climate change activities. We used the coarsened exact matching methodology to create a matched sample of European and North American listed firms participating in the initiative and comparable, non‐participating firms over a 3‐year period from 2015 to 2017. The results showed that firms' participation led to lower levels of GHG emissions compared to similar non‐participating counterparts, especially when they committed to the initiative with the intention to follow the proposed indications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To align with climate initiatives, multiple reporting programs are transitioning from generic activity-based emission factors to site-specific measured emissions data to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at oil and gas facilities. This study contemporaneously deployed two top-down (TD) aerial methods across 14 midstream facilities, building upon previous research in the field. The methods produced multiple whole-facility estimates at each facility, resulting in 773 individual paired estimates (same facility, same day), and robust mean estimates for each facility. Mean estimates for each facility, aggregated across all facilities, differed by nearly 2:1 (49% [32% to 69%]). At 6 of 14 facilities, the methods produced mean estimates that differed by more than a factor of two. These data suggest that one or both methods did not produce accurate facility-level estimates at a majority of facilities and in aggregate across all facilities. The overall results are augmented with two case studies where TD estimates at two pre-selected facilities were coupled with comprehensive onsite measurements to understand the factors driving the divergence between TD and bottom-up (BU) emissions estimates. In 3 of 4 paired comparisons between the intensive onsite estimates and one of the TD methods, the intensive onsite surveys did not conclusively diagnose the difference in estimates. In these cases, our work suggests that the TD methods mis-estimate emissions an unknown fraction of the time, for unknown reasons. While two methods were selected for this study, it is unlikely that the issues identified here are confined to these two methods; similar issues may exist for other similar whole-facility methods on midstream and/or other facility types. These findings have important implications for the construction of voluntary and regulatory reporting programs that rely on emission estimates for reporting fees or penalties, or for studies using whole-facility estimates to aggregate TD emissions to basin or regional estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses how transition to nonhydrofluorocarbon (non-HFC) propellants will impact children in the U.S. and Europe disproportionately. Topics include how climate change is affecting children's health, regulatory and drug development challenges, and policy changes that should be considered by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the transition period to non-HFC, or alternatives to HFC.

Engineering biology (EngBio) is a dynamic field that uses gene editing, synthesis, assembly, and engineering to design new or modified biological systems. EngBio applications could make a significant contribution to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, policy support will be needed if EngBio is to fulfil its climate mitigation potential. What form should such policies take, and what EngBio applications should they target? This paper reviews EngBio's potential climate contributions to assist policymakers shape regulations and target resources and, in so doing, to facilitate democratic deliberation on desirable futures. Engineering biology is a dynamic field that uses gene editing, synthesis, assembly, and engineering to design new or modified biological systems. Here the authors discuss the policy considerations and interventions needed to support a role for engineering biology in climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50 % since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed an automatic procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station (Poland) using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its snapshot area map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We automatically analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of nine that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty in the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (22.0 %), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, made possible by the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power-plant-generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1σ uncertainty in eight out of nine analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential to monitor large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They also illustrate the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions to the atmosphere are a long-lived hazard to human and environmental health. The UN Minamata Convention on Mercury is seeking to lower anthropogenic mercury emissions through a mix of policies from banning Hg uses and trade, to reducing unintentional Hg releases from different activities. In addition to independent Hg policy, greenhouse gas, particulate matter (PM) and SO2 reduction policies may also lower Hg emissions as a co-benefit. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model to examine the effect of different clean air and climate policy on future global Hg emissions. The Baseline scenario assumes current energy use and Hg emissions, as well as current legislation for clean air, mercury and climate policy. In addition, we explore the impact of the Minamata Convention, co-benefits of climate policies and of stringent air pollution policies, as well as a maximum feasible reduction scenario for Hg (Hg-MFR). Hg emission projections until 2050 show noticeable reductions in combustion sectors for all scenarios, due to a decrease in global fossil fuels and traditional biomass use, leading to emission reductions of 33 % (Baseline) up to 90 % when combining stringent climate and Hg-MFR. Cement and non-ferrous metal emissions increase in all activity scenarios with current air pollution policy, but can be reduced by up to 72 % and 46 % respectively in 2050 with stringent Hg-specific measures. Other emissions (including waste) are a large source of uncertainty in this study, and projections range between a 22 % increase and 54 % decrease in 2050 depending on both climate and clean air policy. The largest absolute reduction potential for Hg abatement, but also the largest uncertainties of absolute emissions lie in the in small-scale and artisanal gold production, where Hg-specific abatement measures could eliminate annual Hg emissions in the range of 601–1371 t (95 % confidence interval). 90 % of the Hg emissions in GAINS are covered by the Minamata Convention. Overall, the findings emphasize the necessity of implementing targeted Hg control policies in addition to stringent climate, PM and SO2 policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of different external forcings on regional temperature changes in China and constraining future changes is important for formulating targeted climate mitigation policies. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis to examine the effects of different external forcings on the differences in warming across China and seven subregions. This analysis spanned from 1965 to 2014 and used observations as well as data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The signals of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected and separated from natural (NAT) forcing in all regions, and the effect of greenhouse gases are found to account for a significant portion of the observed warming in these regions. In the Yangtze River Basin, southeast China and southwest China, the observed warming trends are lower than other subregions. This can be attributed to the relatively weak impact of greenhouse gases, resulting in a temperature increase of only 0.51°C in the Yangtze River Basin, which accounts for 48.57% of the observed warming. While both southeast China and southwest China experience a cooling effect of aerosols, leading to temperature decreases of 0.20 and 0.53°C, respectively, even though the signal of aerosol forcing is not detected. In terms of future projection, the use of attribution constraint approach effectively corrects the biases of the CMIP6 model simulation and reduces projection uncertainty in China and most subregions under the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The Tibetan Plateau has the largest reduction of the uncertainty range among seven subregions, with the decrease of 39.02% under SSP2‐4.5 scenario in the long‐term (2081–2098). In addition, north China and southwest China will experience the highest and lowest warming in the long‐term (2081–2098) after attribution constraints, increasing by 3.41 and 2.14°C, respectively, under SSP2‐4.5 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ghana continuously suffers from the impact of the climate change crisis despite its minimal global carbon contributions. Although Ghana has instituted some climate change policies and general environmental regulations, it has not yet promulgated a Climate Change Act to aid the regulation of climate change mitigation, especially of corporations that are the major emitters of global greenhouse gas emissions. This article examines the climate change regulation of corporations in Ghana and its effectiveness in addressing climate change challenges. It assesses the country's international climate change profile and the role of corporations in contributing to its carbon emissions, evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of Ghana's general environmental regulation and discusses alternative regulatory frameworks such as judicial, market and surrogate regulation for managing climate change impacts in the absence of statutory climate change regulation. Further, this article looks beyond the presence of a statutory climate change regulation and examines the potential structuring of climate change regulation in Ghana. The article argues that the traditional command and control regulatory system will be unsuitable for effective regulation of the climate change participation of corporations in Ghana, and instead proposes the adoption of the Dilute Interventionism approach supported by a Veto Firewall system for this purpose. The article argues that these concepts present a practical and effective approach to regulating corporations' involvement in climate change mitigation in Ghana. However, the successful implementation of this approach will require political will, corporate compliance, and technical capacity. This article provides policymakers, stakeholders and interested parties in Ghana and beyond with useful insights to address climate change challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a decline in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita in all world regions since the 1990s. In developing countries, this decline has been attributed to population growth and an increase in absolute emissions, while in developed countries, the trend is mainly due to a decrease in absolute emissions combined with minor population changes. This paper aims to delve into the intricacies of global GHG emissions, with a spotlight on the agricultural sector. This paper assesses the patterns and reasons behind the decline in GHG emissions per capita since the 1990s across different regions. In particular, it addresses the concept of the "sustainable intensification of agriculture" and the debate between intensive vs. less-intensive production in the context of GHG emissions. Despite having high emissions per hectare, we argue that European countries show lower emissions in relation to production value, highlighting the region's production intensity and efficiency. Compelling visual data representations and references from significant international bodies, such as the IPCC and EEA, bolster the paper's findings and conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here derive temperature-dependent damage functions for 41 TC-affected countries to quantify the country-level SCC induced by the persistent growth effects of damaging TCs. We find that accounting for TC impacts substantially increases the global SCC by more than 20%; median global SCC increases from US$ 173 to US$ 212 per tonne of CO2 under a middle-of-the-road future emission and socioeconomic development scenario. This increase is mainly driven by the strongly TC-affected major greenhouse gas emitting countries India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This suggests that the benefits of climate policies could currently be substantially underestimated. Adequately accounting for the damages of extreme weather events in policy evaluation may therefore help to prevent a critical lack of climate action. The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426–452 TgC) and sequestration potential (− 12 to − 17.5 TgCO2eq a−1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the "good." These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the "bad." Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the "future" included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After tentative efforts during the 1990s, the past two decades have seen a rapid increase in the number of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation policies, initially in a few frontrunner countries and more recently spreading globally. Over the same period, GHG emissions have continued to rise, but the rate of growth has recently slowed. Are mitigation policies having an effect? To explore this question, we review and synthesize the empirical literature on the impact of mitigation policies on three key outcomes: GHG emissions, proximate emission drivers like energy intensity and land use, and low-carbon technologies. Our key contribution to the available literature lies in establishing an empirically based track record of climate action, focusing on methodologically sound ex post studies. We find that mitigation policies have had a discernible impact on emissions and multiple emission drivers. Most notably, they have led to reductions in energy use, declines in deforestation rates, as well as cost reductions and capacity expansions of low-carbon technologies in many instances. Furthermore, implemented policies to date are likely to have reduced global emissions by several billion tons of CO2eq per year compared to a world without mitigation policies. In the light of current ambitions on climate action falling short of what is required to limit global warming to the Paris temperature goals, we conclude that there is ample evidence of policy instruments with demonstrable impacts, but that efforts need to be hugely strengthened and expanded. Also, far more attention is required to policy monitoring, evaluation, and learning so as to strengthen the basis for future policy and the attribution of its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate global monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) is essential for understanding climate change and informing policy decisions. This study compares column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) between ACOS_L2_Lite_FP V9r for Japan's Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), OCO-2_L2_Lite_FP V10r for the USA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and IAPCAS V2.0 for China's Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite (TANSAT) collectively referred to as GOT, with data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Our findings are as follows: (1) Significant data quantity differences exist between OCO-2 and the other satellites, with OCO-2 boasting a data volume 100 times greater. GOT shows the highest data volume between 30–45°N and 20–30°S, but data availability is notably lower near the equator. (2) XCO2 from GOT exhibits similar seasonal variations, with lower concentrations during June, July, and August (JJA) (402.72–403.74 ppm) and higher concentrations during December, January, and February (DJF) (405.74–407.14 ppm). XCO2 levels are higher in the Northern Hemisphere during March, April, and May (MAM) and DJF, while slightly lower during JJA and September, October, and November (SON). (3) The differences in XCO2 (ΔXCO2) reveal that ΔXCO2 between OCO-2 and TANSAT are minor (−0.47 ± 0.28 ppm), whereas the most significant difference is observed between GOSAT and TANSAT (−1.13 ± 0.15 ppm). Minimal differences are seen in SON (with the biggest difference between GOSAT and TANSAT: −0.84 ± 0.12 ppm), while notable differences occur in DJF (with the biggest difference between GOSAT and TANSAT: −1.43 ± 0.17 ppm). Regarding latitudinal variations, distinctions between OCO-2 and TANSAT are most pronounced in JJA and SON. (4) Compared to TCCON, XCO2 from GOT exhibits relatively high determination coefficients (R2 > 0.8), with GOSAT having the highest root mean square error (RMSE = 1.226 ppm, <1.5 ppm), indicating a strong relationship between ground-based observed and retrieved values. This research contributes significantly to our understanding of the spatial characteristics of global XCO2. Furthermore, it offers insights that can inform the analysis of differences in the inversion of carbon sources and sinks within assimilation systems when incorporating XCO2 data from satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50% since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed a procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station, in Poland, using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its Snapshot Area Map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of 9 that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty of the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO2y-1 (22.0%), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, possible thanks to the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power plant generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1σ uncertainty in 8 out of 9 analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential for monitoring large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They illustrate as well the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50 % since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed a procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station, in Poland, using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its Snapshot Area Map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of 9 that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty of the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO2 y−1 (22.0 %), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, possible thanks to the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power plant generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1 sigma uncertainty in 8 out of 9 analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential for monitoring large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They illustrate as well the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about how implemented policy instruments have performed is important for designing effective and efficient policy instruments that contribute to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper carries out a meta-evaluation of ex-post evaluations of climate policy instruments in the freight transport sector. By analysing the outcomes and quality of evaluations, the aim is to identify whether estimated effects of policy instruments can be compared between evaluations and if the results are appropriate to use for evidence-based decision making. To analyse these aspects, commonly applied evaluation criteria are assessed and classified according to an assessment scale. We confirm that few ex-post evaluations are carried out and that there is a gap between evaluation theory and how ex-post policy evaluations are performed in practice, where evaluation criteria recommended in policy evaluation guidelines are found to often be neglected in evaluations. The result is a lack of systematic climate policy evaluation which hinders reliable conclusions about the effect of policy instruments. There is a need for more systematic monitoring and evaluation of implemented policy instruments and we suggest that evidence-based decision making can be improved by adjusting current policy evaluation guidelines and by introducing an evaluation obligation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production is affected by climate change, but also contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to ambiguity in how livestock are framed in climate and development policy processes. We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to investigate the role of knowledge brokers in Kenyan livestock and climate change policy processes. We analyse how knowledge brokers deal with ambiguity from different problem and response framings within science-policy interfaces using the case of a project that seeks to inform Kenyan policies relevant to livestock and climate change. We identify ambiguity within the problem stream where actors recognise adaptation and mitigation as dual challenges of livestock and climate change. This ambiguity creates tension between actors but can be strategically deployed to help match the problem and policy streams. Actors use the terms 'climate smart' and 'co-benefits' to link the dual adaptation and mitigation needs. In the political stream, nationally defined priorities and external funding possibilities influence the political will and motivation to adopt identified response options. There are opportunities for knowledge brokers to address the ambiguities and translate knowledge during windows of opportunity when the streams are being coupled, but challenges exist, resulting in slow and inadequate development of policies. This paper makes two contributions to the MSF literature. First, we further refine the concept of knowledge brokers and establish their role across all three streams. Second, we apply the MSF in a lower income country and demonstrate that international organizations must be among the actors considered. • Ambiguity surrounds livestock; they are affected by and contribute to climate change. • Knowledge brokers in Kenya frame issues, offer solutions and influence politics. • International actors shape problem framing and solutions around livestock in Kenya. • The MSF needs to be adapted to apply in developing country contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article discusses the state of climate policy in the face of multiple crises and opportunities for system transformations. While global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and geopolitical tensions are high, there have been positive developments such as the falling costs of clean energy technologies and the increasing role of various actors in climate finance. Climate policy is increasingly integrating with sustainable development goals and adaptation planning, although more action and international climate finance are needed. The article also highlights the growth and impact of the Climate Policy journal, which has covered a wide range of topics and seen an increase in quality and submissions. The outgoing editors express gratitude to the reviewers, associate editors, and editorial board members, and welcome the incoming editors-in-chief. [Extracted from the article]

Policies designed to control greenhouse gases imply domestic tradeoffs and international externalities, which lead to both domestic and international conflicts, influencing their feasibility and implementations. Our paper investigates two quantitative aspects within this debate. We intend to quantify the impact of: (a) the internalization of international externalities; and (b) the damage associated with a short-term view of climate policies. In this respect, we adopt the innovative (in this field) idea of model predictive control to formalize moving-horizon policy strategies and, thus, to build counterfactuals characterized by a different horizon for all policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projects and their Environmental Impact Assessments should take account of global cumulative impacts such as those associated with Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The emissions induce the climate emergency which is a major determinant of public health and much else. This opinion paper identifies some challenges and improvements that could be made in current policy, procedure, and methods for mitigating the climate emergency in airport expansion. It does so by analysing the Environmental Statement for the Leeds and Bradford Airport expansion plan, together with existing international, national, and local climate change policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Everyone knows there is a climate crisis at hand and that humankind is to blame. Drastic measures are needed now to arrest human-induced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. Or maybe not. The first part of this article will show that prevailing narratives and public perceptions of climate change are distorted by a series of exaggerations. The second part of the article examines efforts to link climate change to US national security. And the final part of the article explains why current climate policies pose a greater threat to US national security than the climate does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantities of emitted greenhouse gases (GHG) from hydroelectric reservoirs around the world, especially in warm latitudes, have tarnished the green credentials of hydroelectric energy. The accurate measurement and evaluation of the emitted GHG, which is a critical element in climate change policy, present a significant challenge. Many works have been focused on GHG emissions assessment from reservoirs around the world, but there are no available data concerning reservoirs in Mediterranean countries. In this study, emitted GHG from a young and an old in line water reservoirs, located in Mediterranean mainland, were collected using a "static floating chamber". Methane and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured and their specific emission rates were calculated. The data were used for the development of a mathematical prediction model, proposed for GHG emission assessment. Statistical correlation of GHG emissions and water physicochemical characteristics led to the interpretation of the biochemical processes taking place into the reservoirs. Furthermore, the impact of reservoir's morphology on GHG emissions was recorded, enhancing its importance on decision making for "green" energy investments. The results of this study indicate that artificial reservoirs in Mediterranean mainland generally have lower GHG emissions than those located in tropical and subtropical climatic zones and higher than those in continental subarctic zones and approach the highest values of CO2 emissions and the mean CH4 emissions recorded in continental climatic zones. The applied methodology provides a comprehensive tool for the long term (centennial) emissions assessment and the assessment of reservoirs impacts on the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To limit increasing air pollution and fossil- energy production, several environmental and climate agreements have been established globally. In addition, trade agreements could also serve to achieve climate-mitigation goals, through a trade policy with environmental regulation. By removing tariffs and harmonizing standards on environmentally friendly products and eliminating distortionary subsidies on fossil-energy production, climate change can be mitigated. The objective of the research is to explore the effects of economic growth, international trade agreements and climate conventions on greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2019, at the global level. As an econometric method, an air-pollution function is estimated by panel-regression models. The results confirm that global climate agreements have a significant, but only small, mitigating impact on global greenhouse-gas emissions. The results supported the inverted-U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve. In contrast, the environmental impacts of free-trade agreements had ambiguous results on emissions, as the members of the World Trade Organization contributed to the decrease in air pollution, while countries that signed the regional trade agreements were unable to limit emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal combustion is the largest source of power in India at the moment. This combustion also emits trace amounts of hazardous substances such as mercury. Mercury is a global pollutant with the potential for long-range transport and ability to persist in the environment, bioaccumulate and cause toxicity. Controlling emissions of mercury from coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) is recognized by the Minamata Convention on Mercury as an important step in curbing the harmful effects of mercury to the environment and humans. India has been identified as one of the top emitters of mercury to the atmosphere, and coal combustion contributes to more than half of these emissions. Here, we discuss the current state of regulations on mercury emissions from CFPPs in India, the current information on mercury from CFPP stacks, and the possible way forward. Present data suggest that mercury specific emission control technologies are not required to comply with the regulatory requirements. As such, any reduction in mercury emissions will rely on co-benefits obtained from technologies to control emissions of other pollutants such as flue gas desulphurization, or methods to increase the efficiencies of CFPP such as coal washing. Additional reductions may be made from a business-as-usual scenario if the energy mix of India changes to renewable non-fossil fuel-based energy at an accelerated pace. Quantitative studies assessing the role of such climate change policies on mercury emissions reduction are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Perspectivas de Politicas Publicas is the property of Universidad Nacional de Lanus and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo is the property of Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: The energy policy of the European Union focuses mainly on three areas: renewable energy, reducing the emission of harmful pollutants, in particular CO2, and increasing the efficiency of electricity used. Sustainable energy management, in turn, is undoubtedly associated with the increased use of renewable energy sources ensuring energy security as well as the diversification of energy supplies that support and improve the quality of the environment. The aim of the article is to present the diversity of the European Union countries in terms of actions taken in the field of energy policy resulting from climate and energy goals. Design/methodology/approach: On the basis of the objectives of the energy policy presented in the EU directives, indicators describing the activities of the Member States in this respect were selected. Then, they were subjected to substantive and statistical verification, leaving 6 variables. The tool of Multidimensional Statistical Analysis, which is a synthetic measure, was used to develop a synthetic measure of the level of achievement of the goals of the climate and energy policy. Two types of analyses were used: static for international comparisons between the European Union countries, conducted for 2021, and dynamic, for the years 2011-2021. Findings: The most favourable situation in terms of activities aimed at reducing emissions of harmful substances and improving the energy efficiency of countries can be observed in the hitherto leaders of Sweden and Finland. Together with Denmark, these countries have set very ambitious national targets for achieving a share of at least 50% from renewable energy in gross final energy consumption. All countries have increased their energy productivity index. Bulgaria, Italy and Slovakia have made the greatest reductions in pollutant emissions. In the interests of energy independence, countries are trying to increase energy production from domestic resources. The greatest improvements in this field were made in Ireland, Latvia, Portugal and Finland. The division into three groups of countries implementing the energy and climate policy introduced by the EU showed that the indicators that differentiate countries to the greatest extent, among the group of selected variables, are greenhouse gas emissions and the energy dependency ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transition risk has become a priority for adaptive policy and measures taken by firmsin response to net zero emissions around the world. Internal Carbon Pricing (ICP) is an emerging set of practices voluntarily adopted by companies to respond to progressive climate policies and regulations. The main purpose of companies adopted the ICPs isto manage carbon risks, however, the literatures lack of discussion the linkage between the ICP and climate performance/carbon risk. This study identifies the climate performance indicators, including greenhouse gas abatement, cost savings, profit creation, and carbon risk management. This study also collects the data reporting from Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP, 2019) by Taiwanese companies for empirical analysis. The results provide the evidence that the ICP significant affects climate performance/carbon risk. This will encourage more enterprises to adopt the ICP for managing climate risk. Therefore, guidance of the ICP for transition risk governance aligning with TCFD are needed, and is recommended to ensure the climate resilience in Taiwanese enterprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two main ways to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions: energy efficiency improvement and increase usage of renewable energy sources. Taking these two main ways into account, it is possible to analyze the main drivers of GHG emissions in the country and to make forecast of future GHG emissions based on historical trends. The Visegrad group (V4) countries, including Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic were selected to provide comparative assessment of their GHG emission drivers and to evaluate effects of climate change mitigation policies in energy sector on GHG emission trends. The Kaya identity approach was applied allowing to perform simple multiplication. Kaya identity equation substitutes the factors with wellestablished and measurable quantities, which leave little space for ambiguity. The multiplying population size by GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy allows to get total GHG emissions in the country and define its energy efficiency or use of renewables are the main drivers of GHG emissions, including the effect of economic growth expressed by GDP per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As addressed by many studies, greenhouse gas has a significant impact on the different aspects of life and more importantly on the whole environment. The excessive emission of green gas leads to climate change which is regarded as one of the most significant challenges of 21 century. Hence, in this regard, this paper has addressed the changing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 18 countries of the MENA region. For this purpose, ten different scenarios of this disease's future status and its restrictions were considered in an input–output modelling framework. The empirical results indicated that the emission of greenhouse gas is reduced under all scenarios. However, some countries experience more reduction due to the restriction because of COVID-19 like Syria, Iran, Yemen and Lebenon. Based on the ninth scenario, Iran and Syria have the highest reduction in emission of greenhouse gas by 13.1 and 13.8 per cent, and based on the tenth scenario, Lebenan and Syria will experience the highest reduction in emission by about 13.1 and 17.9 per cent. The results show that according to scenario 10 (explosive intensification of the pandemic without the wave subsiding over a while) and scenario 9 (the pandemic worsens step by step without subsiding over a while), Syria and Iran have the highest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. According to scenario 1 (rapid and complete control of disease), Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have the lowest reduction in GHG emissions. Besides, the study draws several fruitful implications regarding environmental concerns as sectoral analysis such as Hotels and Restaurants, Retail Trade, Fishing, Wholesale Trade, and Transport sectors. Moreover, policymakers should be alert that notwithstanding all limitations, Private Households and Public Administration develop their emissions during the pandemic since quarantine intensifies the supply of these services. Surprisingly, none of the policy restrictions have a significant impact on GHG emissions from Education, Health, and Other Services, Petroleum,Chemical, and Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Textiles and Wearing Apparel, and Re-export & Re-import, demonstrating the robust and established nature of these sectors' activities. To control the emissions of the quarantine-neutral sectors, long- and mid-term structural and environmental policies should be considered. The researchers are guided by the novel implications in terms of how various industries might reduce emissions in different ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Justice and responsibility are central notions shaping the international climate negotiations. However, countries have different perspectives on how to translate these concepts into solutions for climate change. In this process, actors such as the European Union (EU) play a central role, by trying to persuade other large greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters to take on their (historical) responsibilities and by supporting developing countries. At the same time, China and India have become central actors in international climate negotiations. Due to their rapid economic growth and rising GHG emissions, their climate action is crucial for achieving global goals, while their historical emissions are very different from those of Western countries. To shed light on the EU's perspective on climate justice, and the particular role of China and India therein, this article analyses Members of European Parliament's (MEPs) narratives in plenary debates on foreign climate policy between 1996 and 2019. MEPs' views contribute to shaping the EU's position on the topic, but also provide useful insights into the political dynamics of the debate. The paper finds that climate justice is mentioned in less than half of the MEPs' speeches, but that its salience increased over time and became more diverse in terms of different dimensions of climate justice. We also uncover that MEPs' positions on China and India evolved with the rise in their emissions, becoming increasingly critical over time. However, there is a significant variance amongst political groups' positions, between those on the right and the left end of the political spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is required for making effective climate change mitigation policies at the national level. Among major sources, municipal solid waste (MSW) is an important source of GHGs, such as methane (CH4), generated during the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter. In Viet Nam, the emissions of GHGs are not well quantified, in particular from the MSW management system. In this study, we estimated emissions of GHGs from the MSW management system of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), considering the current waste management practices. In HCMC, landfilling has been a common practice of solid waste management. About 85 percent of the total MSW generated in the city has been landfilled at two landfill sites. Our estimates show that landfilling was the significant source of GHGs in HCMC, with a net contribution of 781.05 kg CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq.) per tonne of MSW landfilled. From the whole MSW management system, the direct GHG emission was 768.61 (kg CO2-eq. per tonne of MSW) with avoided emissions of 72.47 (kg CO2-eq. per tonne of MSW) through composting and recycling of MSW. The net GHG emission from the MSW management system was 696.14 kg CO2-eq. per tonne of MSW (≈1.665 million tonnes of CO2-eq. per year). The GHG emission data of this study may be useful to policymakers for making effective climate change mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyses the climate policy and activities envisaged by the national recovery and resilience plans of Bulgaria and Lithuania, which aim to contribute to the green transformation and stabilisation of both economies after the economic slowdown as a result of COVID-19. The methodology of the current research is based on literature review and data analysis of the two countries with different economic structures and sizes. The National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRP) of both countries are compared through the methodology of Bruegel think tank, as that approach is applied to study the Bulgarian plan, which was finalised on 6 April 2022. The main instrument for recovery is the investment in the green economy, which also allows for reaching the climate neutrality target. Both countries demonstrate a decrease in emissions since 1990, as the GHG emissions per GDP in Bulgaria are more than two times higher than the EU27 average and the Lithuanian emissions, as a result of the energy sector. The countries need further actions for GHG reduction and have therefore allocated significant financial resources to achieve the green recovery measures in their plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the urgency of responding to climate change and the insufficiency of current demand-side policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions become clearer, supply-side initiatives are beginning to gain prominence and acceptance globally. Policies such as moratoria and compensation for leaving fossil fuels unextracted in exchange for financial compensation of rights owners are likely to be effective and complementary to existing policies. A number of unknowns remain regarding the operationalization of supply-side policies, such as how to establish a binding international agreement and how to raise and allocate financial compensation for nonextraction. Nevertheless, the need for supply-side policies only emphasizes the importance of imaginative and bold initiatives within the current conjuncture of global environmental politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the effects derived from the application of local policies and measures on the update of the circulating vehicle fleet of the city of Madrid in terms of greenhouse gases and urban pollutants emissions. The identification of said effects has been possible thanks to the use of Vehicle Fleet Characterization Studies (VFCS), which have been applied to Madrid for the last 10 years. It explores the evolution of several indicators, such as fleet age or urban emissions, through the analysis of the results obtained in the VFCS performed in 2013, 2017 and 2022. These studies help decisively in the evaluation of traffic emissions, thus being a compelling tool in the elaboration of the urban inventories. They constitute a cornerstone in the assessment of the city environmental issues and the decision-making process to reduce the environmental impact and minimize transport-related problems. The results show that the renovation of the fleet has diminished the emission of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, improving the air quality. However, the emissions of carbon dioxide stay almost unaffected, which suggests that the climate change policies should be oriented towards the decarbonization of the road traffic, mainly by switching to electric vehicles or low-carbon fuels. [Display omitted] • Vehicle fleet characterization as a useful analysis to develop local policies • Analyzing effects of local environmental policies or designing new ones • Emissions reduction: 42 % for NO x , 48 % for PM 2.5 and 8 % for CO 2 (average fleet) • Hybrids and low-emitting fuels have increased its presence in a combined 16 % • Air quality has greatly improved, but the impacts on climate change are still high [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the primary contributors to climate change. Addressing and mitigating climate change necessitates the effective management and utilization of renewable energy consumption, which poses a substantial challenge for the forthcoming decades. This study explores the dynamic effects of service value added (SVA) and renewable energy on environmental quality, particularly focusing on CO2 emissions. Unlike previous studies, we employ a non-parametric modeling approach to uncover the time-varying influence of service sector growth on CO2 emissions. Specifically, we apply the local linear dummy variable estimation (LLDVE) method to a panel of the 17 highest-emitting nations over the period 1980–2021. Our study uncovers a non-linear relationship between CO2 emissions and SVA. From 1980 to 2003, we observe a negative correlation. However, starting from 2005 to 2020, we witness a shift towards a positive correlation, indicating a rise in energy consumption within the service sector. The results indicate that significant emitter economies have yet to achieve sustainability, with the service sector continuing to contribute to pollution. Addressing this issue necessitates more robust climate change policies and increased investment in clean energy, specifically targeting the service sector, including buildings and transport. • The dynamic effects of service value added on CO2 emissions are investigated for the 17 highest-emitting nations. • A non-parametric approach known as local linear dummy variable estimation is applied. • The study verified the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve. • A nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions and the service value added is revealed. • Robust climate policies are needed, emphasizing more clean energy investments in services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to deal with the deep uncertainty and system complexity associated to Net-Zero pathways, especially those relying on emergent greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies, has resulted in a growing body of literature on alternative decision-support approaches. Exploratory modelling, and specifically Robust Decision Making (RDM), are potential approaches capable of addressing these challenges: by exploring a wide range of conceivable futures, they explicitly embrace deep uncertainties while seeking to reduce system vulnerabilities. However, though RDM methods have been well documented, there is little insight as to how such approach might be integrated into Net-Zero policy design processes. By means of a workshop (n=17) and interviews (n=13) with the UK climate policy and energy modelling communities, this contribution provides insights into the role and potential of RDM in explicitly dealing with the deep uncertainties that pervade in the establishment of a 60–100 MtCO 2 UK GGR sector within three decades. The consultation process revealed that there is an appetite from the decision-making and analytical communities in integrating exploratory modelling concepts into UK policy design processes. It is recommended that to bridge the gap between theoretical RDM constructs and their broader adoption, the analytical process should include a broader set of disciplines and expertise. Specifically for the modelling community, this work suggests that in-use computational models should be adapted, rather than new tools developed. Key challenges also arise from the time and resources required, suggesting small scale place-based pilots could promote the acceptability and foster the adoption of the RDM methodology. • Exploratory approaches, specifically Robust Decision Making (RDM), could tackle deep uncertainty in UK Net Zero pathways. • RDM's participatory scoping stage could address the multitude of cross-cutting issues prevalent in Net Zero systems. • The breadth and depth in the scope of Net Zero are considered major obstacles to the adoption of exploratory approaches. • Addressing this challenge requires involving a wider set of disciplines and expertise in energy system modelling. • Small scale place-based pilots could foster capacity development for the adoption of the RDM methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The German Federal Climate Change Act includes binding annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets for the economic sectors energy, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture and waste. For sectors that fail to meet their targets, climate policy measures have to be implemented immediately. However, some sectors may only have achieved their targets thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, while others may have missed their targets because of COVID-19. For policy making, it is therefore important to disentangle the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic from the effects of policy and other drivers on emissions. In this paper, the effects of the pandemic on GHG emissions in Germany in 2020 are estimated at the national level and at the levels of the economic sectors. Counterfactual emissions are estimated here based on autoregressive econometric models, thereby distinguishing between different factors of emissions based on decomposition analysis. The findings at the national level suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic lowered GHG emissions in 2020 in Germany by about 41 Mt CO2-eq (5.15%) compared to counterfactual emissions. Accordingly, about 58% of the reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2020 in Germany may be attributed to the pandemic. The findings at the sectoral level imply that without the COVID-19 pandemic, all sectors with the exception of the transport sector, would have met their emissions target in 2020 as set in the Federal Climate Change Act. The transport sector would have missed its emission target in 2020 without COVID-19, suggesting that existing policies were not strong enough to bend the curve of emissions trends sufficiently down. In contrast, the buildings sector failed to meet its target in 2020 because of COVID-19, prompting immediate climate policy measures in this sector. The COVID-19 pandemic lowered greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany in 2020 by 5.5% compared to counterfactual emissions and accounted for about 58% of total estimated reductions between 2019 and 2020. Without COVID-19, all sectors but the transport sector would have met their emissions targets. Climate policy response should take into account the effects of extraordinary events like COVID-19 suppressing GHG emissions based on counterfactual emissions because failure to implement measures early on may turn out to be costly in the medium term once the transitory emissions reductions no longer occur. Counterfactual emissions should be considered prior to crediting emissions surplus or deficit to subsequent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]