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COVID‐19 pandemic responses affected atmospheric composition and climate. These effects depend on the background emissions, climate, and season in which they occur. Although using multiple scenarios is common in explorations of long‐term climate change, they are rarely used to explore atmospheric composition or climate changes in response to transient emission perturbations on the scale of COVID‐19 lockdowns. We used the ModelE Earth system model to evaluate how atmospheric and climate impacts depend on the decade and season in which lockdowns occurred. Global COVID‐19‐related anomalies in aerosols and trace gases differed by up to an order of magnitude or more when comparing lockdowns in 1980, 2008, 2020, and 2051. Regional atmospheric composition anomalies tended to be largest when emissions were near a historical peak: 1980 in Europe and temperate North America, 2008 or 2020 in eastern Asia, and 2051 in south Asia. Regional aerosol direct effect anomalies were almost always less than 0.1 W m−2 during the first pandemic year, but over 0.1 W m−2 in Europe and exceeded 0.2 W m−2 in Europe and temperate North America in 1980, generally changing in tandem with regional emissions. In contrast, direct effect anomalies in Asia were positive in 1980 and negative in 2008, suggesting they may be primarily determined by exogenous emission anomalies. Shifting COVID‐19 onset in 2020 by 3, 6, or 9 months also altered atmospheric composition on the order of 2%–25% globally. In all scenarios, changes in surface temperature or precipitation appeared unrelated to local atmospheric compositional changes. Plain Language Summary: The emergence of COVID‐19 led to widespread changes in human and economic activity, resulting in decreases in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The effects of emission reductions on air pollution and climate are historically contingent‐they depend on the current state of the climate, and emissions of pollutants, both of which are in the midst of substantial long‐term changes. We used simulations from an Earth system model to understand those historical contingencies. We find that if a pandemic had emerged in 1980, 2008, or 2051, and the world had responded as it did to COVID‐19, the effects on air pollution would have been substantially different than in 2020. Regional changes to air pollution were generally, but not always, largest when historical emissions were near their peak. For example, reductions in nitrogen oxide pollution in the United States would have been three times larger if COVID‐19 had emerged in 1980. But some radiative effects in Asia appeared to be more influenced by emission changes in Europe and North America. Effects on temperature tended to be modest. Air pollution was also affected to a lesser degree if COVID‐19 had emerged in a different season during 2020. Key Points: If COVID‐19 had emerged in a different decade, atmospheric impacts would have differed, sometimes by an order of magnitudeThe season in which emission reductions occur can influence atmospheric composition as much as the reductions themselvesImpacts on climate were largely negligible and appeared unrelated to changes in local atmospheric composition [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite‐retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6). The tropospheric and stratospheric trends in these diagnostics are affected by greenhouse gases (notably carbon dioxide and ozone), coupling with the ocean, volcanic aerosols, solar activity and compositional and dynamic feedbacks. We explore the impacts of internal variability, changing forcing specifications, composition interactivity, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, vertical resolution, and possible impacts of the mis‐specification of volcanic aerosol optical depths. Overall temperature trends throughout the satellite period are well captured, but discrepancies at all levels exist and have multiple distinct causes. We find that stratospheric comparisons (using Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) retrievals and successor instruments) are most affected by variations in the representation of ozone depletion and feedbacks, followed by the volcanic signals. Tropospheric skill (using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) retrievals) is affected by the trends in ocean heat uptake and tropospheric aerosols, but also by the representation of stratospheric processes through the impact of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation on the height of the tropical tropopause. We demonstrate that no single factor is the dominant cause of the discrepancies and that almost all observations lie within the broad envelope of structural uncertainty. Plain Language Summary: The assessment of the ability of climate models to match trends and variability in the real world is a key factor in building the credibility of model projections under future scenarios. We focus on satellite‐derived atmosphere temperatures from the surface to the stratosphere whose trends at different levels reflect different processes and drivers. The satellite retrievals are weighted averages of atmospheric temperatures and so the vertical structure of the model trends matter in the comparison. We find that overall the trends throughout the atmosphere are well‐captured by the GISS models but that discrepancies can occur due to misspecified forcings, chaotic weather variability, and model structure. Key Points: Changes in forcing configurations have significant impact on agreement with satellite dataTropospheric model‐observation agreement is linked to ocean heat uptake, aerosols, sensitivity, and internal variabilityStratospheric discrepancies are mainly related to volcanic aerosol modeling and representations of ozone climatology and trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role in counterbalancing warming by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ocean‐atmosphere ModelE version 2.1 (GISS‐E2.1‐G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas‐phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass‐based aerosol (OMA) module. Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period are analyzed as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) future scenarios for 2015–2100: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing in the GISS model has reached its turning point, switching from globally increasing to a decreasing trend in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust, independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non‐linear aerosol‐cloud interactions dominate as a forcing agent over aerosol‐radiation interactions. Aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to that at the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, global warming of the last decades, which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases, has been augmented by the effect of decreasing aerosol cooling in our model. By the end of this century, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0%–20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is the result of the aggregate effect of a number of individual forcing agents changing the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere over time. As a result, if positive radiative forcings dominate over negative forcings, the Earth's surface warms. Over the historical period, since the pre‐industrial era, greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosol have provided the largest positive and negative forcings, respectively. However, the relationship between GHG and aerosols have rapidly changed in the last decades, and future projections show much more dramatic dominance of GHG over aerosols. This study investigates the connection between emissions, atmospheric composition and climate forcing. We find that aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing reached its maximum effect in the 1980s, and that since the first decade of the 21st century, aerosol effects are globally on a decreasing trajectory. Reduced aerosol loads are important for health, but accelerate global warming, in the absence of concurrent GHG reductions. The results presented here are based upon the NASA GISS climate model, and the four future scenarios used. These scenarios are not intended as predictions, but represent a range of possible changes in atmospheric composition (including greenhouse gases) based on differing assumptions about future energy policies. Key Points: Aerosol forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model reached its turning point in the first decade of the 21st centuryNon‐linear aerosol‐cloud forcing dominates in magnitude over aerosol direct forcing and pinpoint the timing of the turning pointWithin the next 25 years, global aerosol forcing might balance only 0%–20% of greenhouse gas forcing, compared to 80% in 1980–1990 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short‐lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single‐forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS‐induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short‐lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra‐tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi‐model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra‐tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter‐model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS‐induced ozone depletion. Plain Language Summary: Overhead ozone absorbs harmful solar ultraviolet light, protecting life on Earth. Due to human activities since the nineteenth century, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine have profoundly affected stratospheric ozone. Near the Earth' surface, ozone has increased substantially leading to worsening air quality. In this study, we use Earth system models to interactively assess the roles of ODSs, ozone‐forming pollutants, and GHGs including methane, carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) on ozone changes from the surface to the upper stratosphere. Whilst substantial reductions in stratospheric ozone due to ODSs occurred since the 1970s, the lower‐atmospheric ozone increases due to anthropogenic pollution have counteracted this decrease. Increases in GHGs lead to various positive and negative effects on stratospheric ozone in different regions, and their impacts vary with ODS levels in the atmosphere. Amongst the GHGs assessed here, the increase in methane leads to overwhelming positive trends in both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone through mainly chemical effects. The impact of changes in N2O and CO2 on total column ozone is more uncertain due to large inter‐model differences, although their overall impact is small during the simulation period. Key Points: New multi‐model results show significant positive effects of ozone precursors on near‐global ozone offsetting the negative effects of ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs)ODS and greenhouse gases dominate stratospheric ozone changes but with large inter‐model differences due to uncertainties in responses to ODS changesIncreases in carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide significantly impact stratospheric ozone, but their net effects on total columns are small due to cancellations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NO X , volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO 2 , NH 3 , black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N 2 O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are -1.03 ± 0.37 W m -2 for SO 2 emissions, -0.2 5 ± 0.09 W m -2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W m -2 for black carbon (BC) and -0.07 ± 0.01 W m -2 for NH 3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is -1.01 ± 0.25 W m -2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W m -2 for methane (CH 4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W m -2 for nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W m -2 for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO x), volatile organic compounds and both together (O 3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W m -2 respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin. Plain Language Summary: Measurements show clear evidence of warming over the twentieth century and up to the present day. Our anticipation of future change comes from computer models of climate. These are based upon well‐established physical principles like Newton's laws of motion and radiative transfer theory; the models are closely related to those used for weather forecasting. We can never predict the weather on a particular day, 50 years in the future, but we can calculate whether that future decade will be warmer than our present climate. Part of our confidence in such a forecast comes from testing a climate model's ability to reproduce warming and other changes measured over the past century. We use observations of atmospheric composition and the sunlight received by our planet to calculate how the model responds to their changes. The climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, closely follows changes measured in the ocean and atmosphere as the concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants rise. This agreement suggests that future warming by greenhouse gases will be reliably predicted by GISS‐E2.1. This suggests that the warming we already experience is due to our consumption of fossil fuels that has led to the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past two centuries. Key Points: Tropospheric warming and ocean heat uptake by 2014 are smaller in GISS‐E2.1 and closer to observed trends than in its CMIP5 predecessorGISS‐E2.1 climate sensitivity is higher than in CMIP5 GISS‐E2, but forcing by greenhouse gases is smallerAtmospheric trends vary among model configurations with the storage of heat beneath the thermocline [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results. Plain Language Summary: Chloroflourocarbons and other compounds involved in ozone depletion are also powerful greenhouse gases, but their contribution to global warming is reduced due to the cooling effect of the ozone loss which they induce. Models informing an upcoming climate report disagree on the ozone loss and thus on the climate influence of these gases. Here we use observed ozone loss to reduce the resultant uncertainty in their overall climate influence and infer a smaller warming influence of these substances than was considered likely in a 2013 climate report. The result implies a smaller benefit to climate due to their phase‐out, mandated under the Montreal Protocol, than would have been the case under previous understanding. Key Points: Effective radiative forcing of ozone‐depleting substances, as discerned from CMIP6 simulations, spans a large rangeUsing an emergent constraint approach, our new estimate is consistent with observational climatologies of total‐column ozoneThis range implies a smaller forcing than the estimate provided by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth's climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multicentury anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present‐day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition configuration, including interactive gas‐phase chemistry and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass‐based (One‐Moment Aerosol, OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980s, whereas the mass‐based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010. Plain Language Summary: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth system model, GISS ModelE2.1, has released new interactive composition climate simulations from 1850 to 2014 into the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima protocol archive. The GISS model includes two different schemes to simulate aerosols in the atmosphere, driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions. The two aerosol schemes differ by degree of complexity. One model better resolves aerosol microphysical processes, while the other model has more detailed chemistry regarding secondary organic aerosol formation. The models simulate different trends in aerosol radiative forcing. An evaluation with satellite data between 2001 and 2014 demonstrates that the model with more detailed aerosol microphysics has reached maximal aerosol direct forcing in the 1980s and is since on a decreasing global forcing trajectory. This has implications for using the trends over recent decades as predictive for greenhouse‐gas related changes in the future. Key Points: A discussion is presented of the AMIP aerosol simulations for the years 1850 to 2014 of the GISS ModelE2.1 for CMIP6, using two different aerosol schemesThe detailed treatment of aerosol microphysical processes greatly impacts aerosol forcing and forcing trendsOne model suggests that Earth has already exceeded the maximum negative forcing effects of anthropogenic aerosol in the 1980s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]