1. Simulating long-term emissions from private automated vehicles under climate policies.
- Author
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Bhardwaj, Chandan, Axsen, Jonn, and Crawford, Curran
- Subjects
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AUTONOMOUS vehicles , *GOVERNMENT policy on climate change , *GREENHOUSE gases , *CONSUMER preferences , *CARBON pricing , *ZERO emissions vehicles - Abstract
• Simulates uptake of private light-duty automated vehicles (AVs) and GHG impacts. • Consumer uptake of AVs ranges from 15% to 36% of new market share by 2035. • Full availability of AVs leads to a small increase in GHG emissions. • GHGs increase mainly due to increased vehicle travel (VKT) and reduced zero-emission vehicle sales. • Strong climate policy (regulation or tax) can still reduce AV emissions. The future of privately owned, fully automated vehicles (AVs) is highly uncertain, especially the impacts to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We simulate the impacts of climate policy on AV uptake in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector and the corresponding GHG emissions, including changes to efficiency, vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT), and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales. We use a technology adoption model which includes consumer preferences and endogenous learning, while also representing automaker decisions. In scenarios where AVs become fully available for sale in 2025, consumer uptake ranges from 15% to 36% new market share by 2035--some of which displace ZEV sales. With or without strong climate policy, the availability of AVs leads to a small increase in GHG emissions, largely due to increased VKT per vehicle and among new user groups. However, enactment of a strong carbon price or ZEV sales mandate can still substantially reduce emissions in the AV scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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