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Assuming responsibility for emission reduction is an important part of participating in the global governance of climate change. Countries with a carbon neutrality target now cover about 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carrying out fairness evaluations of their carbon neutrality targets provide a strong basis for the global carbon inventory. In this paper, the target years of carbon neutrality for major countries and regions under the global target of 2 °C and 1.5 °C are studied using the burden sharing model. On this basis, this paper simulates the possible pathways of carbon neutrality and evaluates the ambition of emission reduction targets in terms of annual emission reduction, per capita emission, and cumulative per capita emission. The results show that, from the perspective of equity, most of the developing countries cannot meet the global goal of 1.5 °C. The United States and the European Union nations could achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 by continuing their annual emission reductions under their existing NDC targets. However, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China's annual emission reduction rate from 2030 to 2050 will be 6.7%, and the annual amount of emission reduction accounts for 51% of the global amount under the 1.5 °C target. Meanwhile, China would become the main force behind global cumulative emissions in the following decades. Thus, the emission reduction pathways China chooses will have an important impact on global climate mitigation progress. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper proposes that developed countries and developing countries should explore bilateral or multilateral cooperation in technology and finance in the field of climate change. Under the great pressure to achieve carbon neutrality, China needs to carry out research on the overall emission reduction pathways as soon as possible and clarify the paths at the scale of sectors, industries, provinces, and time stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a complement of production-based accounting (PBA), consumption-based accounting (CBA) provides an alternative perspective to understand national emissions and responsibilities for global climate change. Existing studies assessed historical national emissions under CBA. However, how CBA might guide future mitigation under the Paris Agreement goals has not been well understood. By combining global multi-region input-output analysis and the equity principle of 'equal cumulative per capita emissions' (ECPCE), this study explores potential implications of CBA for future national emissions budgets to limit global warming to below 1.5°C. Historically, consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were higher than production-based emissions in most developed countries while lower in many developing countries. When CBA is used instead of PBA to allocate emissions budgets by ECPCE, future GHG mitigation burdens would become more stringent in 70% of Annex I (mostly developed) countries but slightly smaller in 55% of non-Annex I (mostly developing) countries. In particular, more than half of Annex I countries might need to achieve negative GHG budgets under 1.5°C. Our analysis emphasizes that, as net emission importers, developed countries could strive to pay equal attention to achieving consumption-based and production-based emissions reductions, and strengthen technological and financial support to developing countries that undertake production outsourcing. As net emission exporters, with international support and domestic investment, developing countries could pragmatically promote energy structure optimization and technological innovation to accelerate the decarbonization of production. To support the Paris Agreement goals, mitigation contributions initiated from the perspective of CBA could also be welcomed. Key policy insights Developed countries shift emissions to developing countries through international trade. CBA increases historical responsibilities of developed countries for climate warming from the PBA assessments. Compared to PBA, CBA has clear implications on future national emissions budgets under responsibility-based allocations, but does not change the urgency of national mitigation required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Allocated by ECPCE, future GHG budgets for over 50% of the world's countries would be run out before 2040 under 1.5°C at the 2015 emissions rates, using either CBA or PBA. According to different roles in global supply chains, developed countries should step up support to help developing countries improve emissions and energy intensities, which is a key to reducing emissions embodied in trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] An allocation scheme based on equal per capita cumulative emission is presented. [•] This scheme enables the considerations of different historical responsibilities. [•] Country-specific trajectories are adjusted according to the global emission pathway. [•] Allowances and peaking years are quantitatively analyzed. [•] This new allocation scheme is compared with five others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries usually face the twofold challenges of poverty eradication and carbon emissions reduction. How to reduce carbon emissions while achieving poverty eradication has become a headache for governments. In 2020, China announced its victory in poverty eradication. In the battle against poverty, Chinese listed companies have made meaningful contributions by actively investing in poverty reduction projects. However, the impact of their poverty reduction investments on carbon emissions in poor regions is not clear. This study empirically investigates this question using a difference-in-difference model and manually obtains data on poverty reduction investments in 592 counties in China from 2014 to 2017. Results find that Chinese listed companies' poverty reduction investments do help poor counties improve their carbon emissions efficiency, reflecting the possibility of synergy between poverty eradication and emissions reduction in developing countries. According to the mediation test, listed companies' poverty reduction investments improve the carbon emissions efficiency in China's poor counties through increasing green total factor productivity. In addition, results show that the improvement is more pronounced by strengthening government supervision, establishing economic development industries, and investing in counties with high ecological protection requirements and low per capita income. [Display omitted] • Effect of listed companies' poverty reduction investments on emissions is tested. • A DID model is used to assess effect on poor regions' carbon emissions efficiency. • We use country-level data in China and conduct a number of robustness tests. • Poverty reduction investments improve poor regions' carbon emissions efficiency. • Green productivity is an intermediary to improve carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support the achievement of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C global warming threshold, China aims to peak CO 2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, the specific carbon neutrality pathway remains to be designed. By applying a refined Chinese version of Global Change Analysis Model, this study examines implications of four illustrative carbon neutrality scenarios for aligning China's energy system with below 1.5 °C by 2100. The results feature a trade-off between China's ambition to transform its energy system toward mid-century and its reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) after carbon neutrality. From a full time perspective until 2100, accelerating carbon neutrality could help China's energy system align with below 1.5 °C. Compared to a 2060 carbon neutrality scenario, a 2050 carbon neutrality scenario reduces China's total mitigation costs between 2021 and 2100 by 1.04% of GDP, reduces reliance on CDR by 36%, and provides some additional co-benefits, such as reduced air pollutants. However, special attention needs to be paid to the fact that accelerating carbon neutrality poses greater challenges and costs to China in overcoming development inertia and restructuring its energy system over the next 30–40 years. Compared to a 2060 carbon neutrality scenario, a 2050 scenario increases China's mitigation costs by a factor of 1.13 between 2021 and 2050. This study suggests through quantitative evidence that China could accelerate emissions reductions and energy system transformation to achieve carbon neutrality, based on its national circumstances and capabilities and international support. • Implication of carbon neutrality for China's energy system under 1.5 °C is explored. • Four illustrative carbon neutrality scenarios are assessed by integrated modelling. • Trade-off between energy transition to mid-century and reliance on CDR is shown. • AcCelerating carbon neutrality reduces China's mitigation costs to align with 1.5 °C. • China could consider accelerating transition and pursuing early carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]