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Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional cost-effectiveness calculations ignore the implications of greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions timing and thus may not properly inform decision-makers in the efficient allocation of resources to mitigate climate change. To begin to address this disconnect with climate change science, we modify the conventional cost-effectiveness approach to account for emissions timing. GHG emissions flows occurring over time are translated into an 'Equivalent Present Emission' based on radiative forcing, enabling a comparison of system costs and emissions on a consistent present time basis. We apply this 'Present Cost-Effectiveness' method to case studies of biomass-based electricity generation (biomass co-firing with coal, biomass cogeneration) to evaluate implications of forest carbon trade-offs on the cost-effectiveness of emission reductions. Bioenergy production from forest biomass can reduce forest carbon stocks, an immediate emissions source that contributes to atmospheric greenhouse gases. Forest carbon impacts thereby lessen emission reductions in the near-term relative to the assumption of biomass 'carbon neutrality', resulting in higher costs of emission reductions when emissions timing is considered. In contrast, conventional cost-effectiveness approaches implicitly evaluate strategies over an infinite analytical time horizon, underestimating nearer term emissions reduction costs and failing to identify pathways that can most efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation objectives over shorter time spans (e.g. up to 100 years). While providing only a simple representation of the climate change implications of emissions timing, the Present Cost-Effectiveness method provides a straightforward approach to assessing the cost-effectiveness of emission reductions associated with any climate change mitigation strategy where future GHG reductions require significant initial capital investment or increase near-term emissions. Timing is a critical factor in determining the attractiveness of any investment; accounting for emissions timing can better inform decisions related to the merit of alternative resource uses to meet near-, mid-, and long-term climate change mitigation objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has focused attention on the importance of accurately estimating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from all sectors. An inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases from Canadian municipal wastewater treatment plants was prepared using a life-cycle approach. Both on-site emissions at the treatment facility due to the biological processes used and fossil fuels consumed for energy and heat and upstream emissions related to off-site production and transmission of fuels and the off-site production of electricity for the plant were included. For the year 2000, the on-site methane (CH4) emission rate from Canadian municipal wastewater treatment facilities was estimated at 1600 Mg/year. The total on-site emission rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) was estimated at 669 100 Mg/year, but the estimated total CO2 equivalent emissions rose to 1 048 500 Mg/year once upstream emissions were included. Clear abatement strategies related to more efficient energy use and energy recovery can be identified once accurate GHG emissions inventories are in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The corn stover ethanol models from GREET and GHGenius were compared. • Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from baseline models differed by 45 gCO 2 e MJ−1. • Key inputs and assumptions in the models were aligned and made identical. • Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions differed by 1.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 after alignment. • Variations in emissions persisted for key inputs even after model alignment. Abstract This paper evaluates differences in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn stover ethanol produced in the U.S. Midwest, as estimated by the life cycle-based software GHGenius 4.03a, GREET 2013, and GREET 2015. Life cycle assessments are not typically conducted using more than one software package, but comparisons such as the analysis in this paper provide a critical review of a fuel product system. In particular, differences in the data and assumptions become evident for life cycle stages of the same fuel product when compared between life cycle assessment software packages. Using default settings in the three software packages, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions predictions ranged from 2.75 to 47.8 gCO 2 equivalent per MJ of ethanol (gCO 2 e MJ−1), which presents a difference of as much as 45 gCO 2 e MJ−1. Assumptions regarding nitrogen fertilizer, land management, on/off-site enzyme production, and material/energy inputs included/excluded had substantial effects on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. A consistent corn stover ethanol pathway using equivalent model assumptions and material/energy inputs was developed and implemented in each of the software packages, resulting in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions ranging from 40.7 to 42.0 gCO 2 e MJ−1. The difference in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions was considerably reduced to 1.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 at most between software packages; however, individual emissions sources such as nitrogen fertilizer production, fertilizer application, corn steep liquor, glucose, sodium hydroxide, and biomass electricity still exhibit variation between software packages (e.g., up to 7.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 E100 for equivalent glucose input), mainly due to different emissions factors data. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions appeared consistent because emissions sources that vary between software packages offset each other. Differences in greenhouse gas emissions determined for corn stover ethanol point to the need to improve the life cycle modelling and replicability of life cycle studies on this biofuel pathway. Such inconsistencies are relevant in a carbon economy because the same product will have a different value in different jurisdictions as a result of differences in life cycle assessment software packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents three scenarios of urban growth, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Dar es Salaam using narratives that are consistent with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). We estimate residential energy demand and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 for household activities (including upstream electricity generation) and passenger (road) transport (Scopes 1 and 2). We project that by 2050, Dar es Salaam's total residential emissions would increase from 1,400 ktCO 2 e (in 2015) up to 25,000–33,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP1); 11,000–19,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP2); and 5,700–11,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP3), with ranges corresponding to different assumptions about household size. This correlates with an increase in per capita emissions from 0.2 tCO 2 e in 2015 to 1.5–2 tCO 2 e (SSP1); 0.7–1.3 tCO 2 e (SSP2); and 0.5–0.9 tCO 2 e (SSP3). Higher emissions in SSP1 (the sustainability scenario) are driven by a higher urban population in 2050 and increased energy access and electricity consumption. Through aggressive GHG mitigation policies focused on decarbonization of the electricity sector and road transport, total emissions under SSP1 can be reduced by ∼66% in 2050. Study insights aim to inform policies that identify and capture synergies between low-GHG investments and broader socio-economic development goals in Sub-Saharan African cities. • Provides the first projection of residential energy use and GHG emissions in Dar es Salaam and demonstrates the use of the SSPs at the city scale. • Analyzes the key drivers of residential energy use and GHG emissions in a large SSA city, Dar es Salaam, offering new insights for the region. • Demonstrates a method for projecting emissions in a data-poor environment. • Shows the wide uncertainty in these future projections, while also demonstrating the order of magnitude jump in emissions that can be expected in Dar es Salaam to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]