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Achieving temperature targets under the Paris Agreement requires urgent measures to curb construction of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) and expediate the retirement of existing assets. As the world's fourth largest coal consumer, Japan's efforts to reduce coal usage are critical for international climate mitigation. Policies introduced after the Fukushima nuclear disaster have led to a rapid increase in solar. However deregulation of the electricity market has also prompted a rush of new CFPP constructions by new market entrants and incumbent utilities. In parallel, Japanese state agencies and industry are actively exporting CFPP technologies to developing countries. Although these domestic and international actions harbour serious consequences for global climate mitigation efforts, greater understanding of the factors driving Japan's coal dependency is needed to limit further lock-in of future carbon emissions. Filling this gap, this study critically examines narratives employed by actors in government and industry to sustain Japan's domestic and international coal industry. Our analysis shows how Japan's fossil fuel regime is employing recurring narratives to promote continuation of the current coal-based energy system and to mobilise further investments in high-efficiency coal power technologies. We conclude by recommending various policy pathways and institutional reform measures aimed at encouraging wider diffusion of renewable electricity sources while reducing coal dependency.

Whether China's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction target “to peak around 2030” is “fair, ambitious and adequate” or not depends on how much emphasis be placed on the historical responsibilities. However, China's peak in coal consumption may come earlier than expected, thereby advancing the peak of CO2 emission to come before 2030. In fact, the calculation based on the recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China released indicates that its coal consumption and CO2 emission (from fossil fuels) have almost flatted in 2014. Moreover, National Bureau of Statistics of China has upwardly adjusted the data for energy consumption and coal consumption in 2013, which led to confusion in its interpretation. Although it is difficult to say anything definite at this moment, the issue of upward adjustment of statistical data until 2013 and the recent declining trend of coal consumption and, possibly CO2 emission (from fossil fuels) can be discussed separately. All things considered, it seem...

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2 °C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget. The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550 ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets. Policy relevance In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2 °C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.

Japan’s INDC toward post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions is at the level of a reduction of 26% by fiscal year (FY) 2030 compared to FY2013 (18% reduction compared to FY1990). After the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in 2011, the GHG emission in Japan soared due to the increase of the power generation by the fossil fuel-powered station. However, in 2014, GHG emission declined due to the decrease of electricity consumption and improvement of the CO2 intensity and power generation. Current governmental energy/climate policy, which becomes the basis of the INDC, requires the industry sector to implement less energy conservation and GHG emission reduction measures compared to other sectors such as commercial, transport and household, which may result in the introduction of the specific policy such as carbon pricing to those sectors. Prioritization of nuclear power and coal-fired power as base-load power-generation technologies is also the characteristics of the current governmental policy. Since the framework to control the coal-fired power plants is voluntary in nature and the future of the nuclear power is uncertain, there is a possibility that Japan cannot achieve the INDC targets. In that case, Japan will rely on the international credits such as from the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM).